observations on the probabilities of the duration of human life, and the progress of population, in...

Observations on the Probabilities of the Duration of Human Life, and the Progress ofPopulation, in the United States of America; In a Letter from William Barton, Esq. to DavidRittenhouse, L. L. D. President, A. P. S.Author(s): William BartonSource: Transactions of the American Philosophical Society, Vol. 3 (1793), pp. 25-62Published by: American Philosophical SocietyStable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/1004851 .

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N?. VII.

Objer,vations on the probabilities of the Duration of Human Life, and the progrels of Population, in the United States of America; in a Letterfr-om WILLIAM BARTON, EsQ. to DAVID RITTENHOUSE, L. L. D. Prefident, A. P. S.

DEAR SIR,

Read Mar. B E G leave to communicate to our Philofo- i8,1791. phical fociety, the following obfervations, on the probabilities of the duration of human life, in this country ;-and, likewife, on the progrefis of its population; together with the caufes which accelerate that progreffl- on, in a degree unparalleled elfewhere. By comparing the refults, with fimilar eftimates made for fome European countries-the advantages on the fide of the United States, in thefe refpe&ts, will be readily difcerned.

There is not, perhaps, any political axiom better efta. blifhed, than this,-That a high degree of* population contributes greatly to the riches and fhrength of a flate. In fad, the progreffive increafe of numbers, in the people of any civilized country, is reciprocally the caufe and effe6t of its real wealth: and, therefore, there cannot be a furer criterion by which we may judge, whether a nation be, in reality, on the rife or on the decline, than by ob- ferving, whether the number of its inhabitants increafe or dim inifh.

If, then, numbers of people conflitute (or, at leaft, contribute to) the flrength and riches of a Rate; that country, whofe population is rapidly advancing, may fairly be faid -to b,e increafing in both thefe concotnitants of national profperity, with propornionable celerity. For, if a country exhibits fo unequivocal a teft of ftrength and VOL. III. D riches,

" < The encoturagement of population ought to be Qne of the firi obje1s of policy in ev. ry State." Dr. Price. I



26 OOBSERVATIONS oN T H E

riches, as that circumfiance indicates,---a good fyflem of government, well adminiftered, mull infure its profperity (fo far as human efforts can produce theend;) notwithfland. ing the tranfitory effe6t of fuch inicidents, as have no neceffary conneation with, or permanent influence upon,, the fundamental fources of a nation's welfare : Thefe could only occafion a temporary derangement in the political occonomy of the flate, whereby the operation of the national refources might, for a ti-me, be fufpended ; during which interval there might be an appearance (or even an aatual exillence, in fome degree,) of public debility and diflrefs.

If thefe obfervations be applied to the United States of America, it will appear, that this country pofi-ffes, in a fuperior degree, an inherent, radical and lafting fource of national vigor and greatnefis :--For, it will be found, that, in no other part of the world, (at keat}, in none of thlofe parts with which we are bell acquainted) is the progrefs of population fo rapid, as in. thefe flates&-And this in_. creafe arifes from the falubrity of the climate; the great fruitfulnefs and refotirces of the country; the c(nfequent facility -of acquiring the means of a comfortable fubfill. ence, which, aided by the benign influence of our government, produces* early marriages ;-and, laflly, from thet virtuous and fimple manners of the great body of our inhabitants, Thefe are either the proximate or remote caufes which accelerate the population of this favoured land; independently of acceffions to our numibers, occafioned by migrationrs from foreign countries. As

i In a letter written in the year 1768, by. our venerable Franklin, to John Alleyne ; Efq. (in anfwer to one wherein Mr. Alleyne had requeffed to know the D,Dor.'s impartial thoughts, on the fubjed of an early-marriage,) there is this pafflage.-" Mrith us in Ainerica, mnarriages are generally in the morning of life,--our children are therefore educated, and fettled in the world, by noon; we have ass afternoon and evening of chearful leizlure to ourfelves,---fuch as your friend at prefent enjoys. By thefe early marriages, we are bleft with miiore children v amid, from the mode among us--founded in,nature---of every mother fuckliing and nurfinig her own child, more of them are raifed. Thence the fwift progrefs of population, among us,--- urmparallelcd iri Europe!"

" A natiorn fhall be more populous, in proportion as good morals and a finmplicity of tafte iiad manners pr-evail; or, as the people are more frugal and virtuous."---Wallace's Diertati- on on the numbers of nankind, in ancient and modern times.,



DURATION ov HUMAN LIFE. 27 As a plenitude of inhabitants is of fo much importance

to the interefls of a nation, numerous eftimates have been made, of the flate and progrefs of population in divers countries; and -the circumflances are defignated which occafion its growth or declenfion, in different places and at particular feafons. The refults of cflimates, on this fub- jeac, furn-ifh ufeful refleailons to a contemplative minds they are not only inflru&five to the moralift and pleafing to the mere fpeculative philofQpher; but they are peculi- arly interefling to the ftatefman and the medical enquirer.

In order to thew the difference between the progrefs of population in thiscountry, and that in fome parts of the old world, as well as in the probabilities of the duration of life in each, refpeaively,-I {hall offer fome remarks from fuch data, as, I prefume, will be fatisfaatory on the occafion. Although the kind of documents, on which calculations of this nature are ufually founded, could not, in relation to this country, be obtained in fo perfea a flate, as to warrant very accurate inferences from them, in every particular,-the deduafions, in general, are neverthelefs not far from the truth.-It is greatly to be wifled, that the feveral religious denominations of chriflians, tlroughout the United States,2-at leaft, in our confiderable towns and well fettled parts of the country,--would be -at the pains of obtaining and publifhing, every year, lifts of the births and deaths in their refpedtive parifhes or congregations; together with the proportion of the fexes in each liii, the ages of the deceafed, their difeafes, and the numbers dying in each month. The number of marriages Thould alfo be added.: and it would, moreover, be ufeful

D 2 to i " La population ef tin des plus firs moyens de ju.ger de la profperite d'un empire; et les

variations q'elle eprouve, comparees aux evenemens qui les precedent, font la plus jule mefure de l'influence des caufes phyfiques et morales, fur le bonheur on fur le malheur de l'efpece liu- maine."---See a paper on the births, -marriages and deaths, at Paris, &c. by M. de fa Place, Hift. Royal read fciences, for 1783.

" La connoiffance des probabilities de la duree dc la vie, ei utne des chofes les plus interef- fantes dans l'hiRoire natuirelle dc l1homme."---Sce M. de Buffon's effay on the probabilities of the duration of life---in the fupplement to the Nat. Hiflory.



as OBSERVATIONS ON TIYE

to notice in what inflances thofe d'ying after eiglhty years of age were foreigners. But a laudable fpirit of enquiry is gaining ground among us, fo faft, that there is reafon to expea the introdution of great regularity and precifion in fuch arrangements, in the feveral departmernts of our public cconomy, as may lead to futrther attainments in ufeful knowledge, and particularly to improvements in this branch of fcience.

In- purfuing this fubjed, it becomes neceffary to flate thofe fads, from which, as data, deduthions are ufually made, for the purpofe of afcertaining the condition of any given country, with refpe(t to its population. And, after- fhewing the refult of fimilar ftatements, here, and comparing them with fuch as have been mnade the ground- work, in eflimates relatirng- to European countries, the balance in favor of this country will be evident.

lMarriage is the fource of population. Therefore, the greater is the proportion of marriages in any country, the greater will be its proportion of births.-It appeared, by a colle:tion of the yearly bills of mortality, publifhed in London, in 17-59, by Mr. Corbyn Mro-rris,--that, in England, each marriage produces four chlltlren. Dr. Short, in his comparative hiftory of the increafe of mankind', fays, that, in order to be fully fatisfied refpeaing the-numbers of perfons to be allowed to a family, he obtained the true number of families and individuals in fourteen market-towns, fome of them confiderable in trade and populoufnefs; and that theycontained 2o,37 - families, and 97,6 I individuals ;-or, but little more than 4 r to a family. He adds, that, in order to find the dif- ferenice in this refpett, between towns and country-parifhes, he procured, fromn divers parts of the kingdom, the cxaat number of families and individuals, in fixty-five country-parithes. The nuLmber of families was 17,208,-- Uidiividuals, 76,284; or, not quite C; to a family. Dr.

Davenant,



DURATION or HUMAN LIFE. 2 Davenant, from the obfervations of Mr. King, gives 41-XT as the nu'nber of perfons to a family, for the whole king. dom.--By the flate of births, marriages and deaths, in the city and Fauxbourgs of Paris, from 1771 tO 1784 (both inclufive,) each marriage produced the proportion of 3-T births. The marriages and births at Paris, for 22 years (viz. from 1745 to I766, both inclufive) as fRat- ed by the Count de Buffon, give the proportion of 4Q6 births to a marriage. - But M. Buffon fuppofes, that about one half the foundlings (les enfans trouve's) ought to be i'ncluded in the lifi of births for that city; inflead of their whole number, which averaged, during thofe twenty-two years, 4,5 per annum: dedudcing, therefore, one half of the foundlings from the total number of births, and each marriage gives the proportion of 3r4 births. The Abbe D'Expilly has given a fiatement of the births, deaths and marriages for the whole kingdom of France, includ.- ing Lorrainie and Bar, from I-754 tO 1763, coIilprehend. ing a term of nine years; and likewife one for Fraince, exclufive of thofe provinces, during the fame term. By tsoth thefe- fatements it appears, that each marriage gives the proportion of 4o births, for that kingdom.--In the Pais de Vaud, in Switzerland, on a medium of ten years, the proportion of marriages to births, was-as I tO 3 According to- Dr.- Price, the proportions of miarriages to births are, at Berlin, I tO ,90-U-4at Copenhagen, I t 3A- 5--and at Amflerdamr, i to i 19 ".-In the Ifland of Corfica, indeed, during the years I 78i and 1782, there were five births to a marriage, according to the tables of births. deaths and marriages, within the French Domini- ons in Europe- (publifhed by M. de la Place, in the memoirs of the Royal Academy of Sciences for 1783.) But this is a folitary inflance of fo large a proportion of births to marriages: and, being for a imall ifland, fcarcely containing I 29,000 inhabitants, it is not proper to take it into an efliiate, on this occafion. Froiu



30 OBSERVATIONS ON THE

From the foregoing flatements it maybe prefumed, that four and an half perfons to a houfe, and the fame -propor._ tion of births to a marriagre, are an allowance quite high enough for fome of the healthiefi parts ot Europe, com- prehending a large extent of territory.-There is but one iniflance, in which I have been enabled to obtain the aau- al proportion of marriages to births, in this country-At the firft 1)arifh in Hingharu, in the itate of Maffachufetts, duiring the courfe of fifty-four years, thcre were two thoufand two hundred feven and forty births, one thoufand oine hundred and tlhirteen deaths, and five hundred anid twenty one marriages; which gives the proportion of fix and a quarter bi-rths to a marriage. If the number of inhabitants in this pariflh had remainedf lationary, during the whole term of fifty-four years-,--and if one out of forty- five had died there, annually ; it wculd have contained nine hundred and twenty-feven fouls'-Therefore, the proportion ofbirths to marriages, in thatparifh, being taken out of fo confiderable a number of perfons, and for fo long a time, inclines me to think it may ferve as a pretty juft flandard for the country parts of the northern, and, perhaps, of the mn'iddle flates.-But,not being poffeffed of documents of thlis kind, for other parts of the Union, I {hall affume the proportio n of perfons to a houfe, or to a family, as the next befi means for afcertaining the proportion of births to marriages.-When we find a large proportion of perfons to a family, taking a country en gros, it may be reafonably prefumed that the births are numerous in the fame ratio: And the moft obvious caufes, which produce this effeat, have already been noticed. It has been obferved, that, in fome of the healthiefl and moft confiderable portions of Euro-pe, four and an half perfons to a houfe is a large allowance for thofe countries. The late cenfus of the inbabitants in the flate of Mafachufetts Thews, that there are in that flate, upwards of five and

tw.o



DURATION or IIUMAN LIFE. 31 two thirds fouls to aJamily, in that ftate---exclufive af-Lnd. dians and Negroes-The proportion to a houfe is 6 fj -: For, thefamilies are to the houfes, in that fRate, as fix to five. In BoRlon, there are to afamily, 5 1 9 fouls: and in the three next largeRt towns, placed in the or(ler of their magnitude, the proportions of perfons to. -a family, areas follow, viz. Salem, 5 0,X Marblehead, 5 -.j6-Newbu-.

ry-Port, 4,*0. At Ipfvwich, contv'ining four thoufand five hundred and fixty two inhabitants (and which will be mentioned hereafter,) the proportion is, 6 o In this eflimate for MafTachufetts, the diifritl of Maine is not in. cluded: but the flate contains 373,324 inhabitants-, exclufive of that diftria.-When tlle cenfus in completed, f6r the feveral Rtates in- the Union, the refult it will furnifh, on this fiabjea, will prove highly interefling-It appears, lhowever, by the cenfus for the large and populous ftate of Maffachufetts, that the proportion of births to marriages, there, greatly exceeds that which obtains in fome of the principal countries of Europe: And, it is probable, the refult will be foutnd nearly the fame, ifn this particu. lar, with relation to the major part of the Union.

There is, howvever, another means, by which the fui- perior nuinberofbirths in proportion to the whole number living, in thi-s country,--compared with the proportion which obtains, in this refpe&, in profperous European countries,-may be afcertained-..--In arn effay for afcertaining the population of France, by MefIrs. Du Sejour, the Marquis Dc Condorcet and De La Place, (in the memoirs of the Royal Academy of fciences for T 783,) it is affumed as an hypothefis--that multiplying the mediuin of annual births in the whole kingdoom, by 25-, will give the number of inhabitants; and that, for the cities of Paris and Verfailes, thirty muft be the multiplier. The Count De Buffon fuppofes, that the number of thofe who die in France, annually, is -5 of all the living; and, confe.

qtuentl y



32 OBSERVATIONS ON TIH E

quentIy, if the medium of annual deaths in the kingdom be multiplied by thirty five, the produd will be the num-. ber of inhabitants it contains---Accordingly, by the firfl hypothefis, France fhould contain 24,812,877 inhabitants (taking the mediurm of births in that kingdom, exclufive of Corfica, in I78i and 1782,---as flated in the memoirs ofxhe Royal Academy of Sciences, for 1783) :-And by the.fecond hypothefis, the number would amount to 25,9 6, I 70, (taking the medium of deaths in nine years, viz. from 1754 to 1763,---as fRated by the Abbe D'Ex- pilly.) The variance in the refult of thefe two hypothefes fbews, that both cannot be jufI.--L am induced to believe that the fecond proportion approaches neareft the truth, for the following reafon---Each mnarriage gives four and an half births, during the nine years eftimated by the Ab- be D'Expilly; whereas the fame gives onily the proportion of24 3 births, for the years 1781, and 1782,-as flated by M. de la Place: and it may he prefuimed, that the longeft .term gives the trueft proportion. If, thlerefore, the proportionQof births to marriages trom 1 754 to I 63 (the lafI,included,) compared w7ith the proportion of births to marriages, in 178I and 1782, beadmitted as a Dat- umt, from which any probable efltimate of the number of inhabitants in France rnay be deduced, for thle latter period,-that numbcr would be 26,396,667; which exceeds tle higheft number above ftated. But A ' births to a miiarriage-an intermediate ratio-will give the number of inlhabitants the fame, as thirty five of the whole number, living in a.given tertn,to each death during the fame time; and this accords with M.de Buffon's hypothefis.---AfTum_ ing, then, the truth of this pofltion---there are in France 26l-0 perfons living, in proportion to each birth-Hence the number of annual births in that kingdom, multiplied by 26A63,,, will yield the number of its inhabitants.---It appears, alfo, by an enumeration of the inhabitants of the

kingdorn



DURATION or IIUMAN LIPE. 33 kingdomofNaples, taken in the year I769,---that by multiplying, by twenty-five and an half, the births of a commo-n rar, in that kingdom, the produa gave the real number of the inhabitants: and, fuLrther, that, on comparing the number of births and that of the inhabitants, in the city of Turin, in the years I 767 and I 768,---the proportion of the former was to the latter, as one to twenty-feven.---Confidering thefe feveral circumflanccs, I would infer---that the proportion of about twenty-fix and an half exifting perfons to each birth, is nearly right with reference to France. In this eflimate for France, the Ill_ and of Corfica, fubjeat to that crown, is not comprehend- ed.---If there be one birth to every twenty-fix and an half inhabitants, in that Ifland,---the latter muft amount to 136,077; and, if this number be divided by the medium of annual deaths,--thefe will be to the whole number -of the living, as one to 32-7- But, taking the medium of marriages and birtlhs, refpeatively, for Corfica, there were five births for one marriage. For this reafon, a greater number -ought not to be affumed, for afcertaining the aatual population of that Ifland, than twenty-five perfons to each birth. This reduces the total number of inhabitants to 128,375; and makes the number of thofe who die annually, compared with the whole numnber living, as one to 30k 6: a degree of mortality, which indicates the unhealthlinefs of the climate; notwithflanding the high proportion of births to marriages, in that country, makes the number of deaths appear low, in compa- xifon -with the births.-

With refpe&: to England-although Sir William Pet-. ty and other Englifh writers agree in faying, that, in the country in that kingdom, there dies one in thirty-two,--- M. Buffon eftimates the proportion to be onein thirty-three. And Petty fuppofes that five are born, to four that die, ia that country.--This ratio gives one birth to nearly twen- VOL III. E ty_.




ty-fix and an half inhabitants.--Dr. Price prefumes, that 59i,580, is nearly the true number of inhabitants, in London; but, that 651,580, though ihort of the number fuppofed in that city, is veTy probably greater, and cannot be lefs, than tlle true number.-In the firfI cafe, the number of inhabitants in London, dievided by the annual number of deaths (including therein an addition of 6,ooo, for omiffions,) gives 2 i-,0 ,as the proportion out of which one dies annually:-and, in the fecond cafe, that pro-. portion will be one out of 23 -id . There are, notwithfiand- ing, fome circumifances, which difpofe me to conclude, that London contains 71 Ix i 6 foul s---Firft ; we find, by taking the medium of two eftimates (one by Meffrs. du Sejour, Condorcet and de la Place, and the other b-y M. Buffon,) that Paris contains about 626,285 fouls, and that there are nearly thirty-two and an half living in that city, to each annual death.-We alfo find, that the mortality of London exceeds that of Paris, about one fourth part,-as efltimated from the births and deaths for each city, refpedively: confequently, the number of perfons living, to each annual death, in London, -will be twenty- fix; agreeably to my hypothefis---Secondly; although Graunt, Petty, Morris, Smart, and other Englifh authors, have adopted the number of tlhirty of the living, to eaclh death, for London; yet the Count de Buffon fuppofes--- that thirty-one to one, is near the truth: and Dr. Price flates the proportion to be twenty-one to one :--The medium, therefore, of M. Buffonrs and Dr. Price's eflimates is twenty-fix to one. Now, if we affume the proportion of one birth to twenty-fix inhabitants, annually, for France, which is lefs favorable, with refpeSt to the ratio of births to iinhabitants in that kingd-om, than thie effimate of M. du Sejour, &c.r---and, if rt be affumed as a fad, that one in -twenty-fix dies, annually, in London, the proportions of the births in a year, for the feveral places herein mention-

ed,



DURATION or' HUMAN LIFE. 35 ed, are, to the number of fouls in thofe places, refpezt ively, as follow, viz.

In France---- birth ---to 26 inhabitants England -- i do.----to 264 do. Paris--- ---i do. --- to 30 do, London--- i do.- -to 322 do.

Yet, even in the city of Philadelphia, the annual births amount to one in twenty-two and an half, of all the inhabitants. A bare infpeaion of the feveral proportions, in this particular, will enable one to form a judgment of the increafe of population in thiscountry, beyond that of the two moft confiderable in Europe.

Another circumftance, from which the extraordinary progrefs of popuilation, in this country, may be inferred, is the high proportion of thofe under the age of i 6 years, to thofe above that age, out of the whole number of the living.-Dr. Halley conmputes the number of the living, under i6, to be but a third of all the living at all ages. But it appears from the cenfiis of the inhabitants of NewA. Jerfey, taken by order of the government at two periods, ViZ. I738 and I 745, that, in the year I 738, the number of thofe under 16, was to the whole amount, as 47 6 to Ioo; and, in I745, the proportion was, as 49l'.S to 1oo. The proportion of free white males, to the whole -number of perfons of that defcription, in Maffachufetts, taken from the recent cenfus of inhabitants in that flate, is as 48 T O- to ioo.-Hence we find nearly* one-half, in's flead of one-third, is the proportion, here, of thofe under i6, out of the total number of our inhabitants.-The proportion for the city and fuburbs oft Philadelphia, is,

2 by 4 Mr. Jefferfon obferves-in his notes on Virginia.- that, to find the number of free inha-

bitants in that ftate, it is to be noted--that thofe above and thofe below I6 years of age, are nSearly equal.

f The celebrated founder of Pennfylvania, in a letter to his friends in London (dated at Philadelphia, the z6th of Auguft, 1783)---acquainlts them, that the planted parts of the province were then ereaed into fix counties, containing about four thoufand fouls; and that the tapital had advanced, within lefs than a year, to about four fcore houfes and cottages, fuch as they wer,-.-.Philadelphia now contains about 44,000 inhabitants !



36 OBSERVATIONS ON TEIE

by the cenfus,* 4I-- to I.O but this inferiority of the proportion of perfons under I6 to thofe above that age, in Philadelphia, may be attributed to a greater proportion of children dying in large cities, than in country places. The next circumfiance, from which I fhall infer that the progrefs of population is much more rapid in this country, than elfewhere, is, that the births exceed the deaths, in niumber, in a fuperior degree, among us.-The Abb& D'Expilly, in his eflimate before mnentioned, gives the births to the deaths, in France, as Ioo births to 76 9 4- deaths. In the Pais de Vaud, onI an average of ten years, the proportion was, to IoO births, 791-307 deaths.-In great cities7 the degree of mortality is much higher. By the tables of births and deaths in Paris, for twenty-two years (viz. from 1745 to 1766,) the births and dJeaths give the proportion of ioO of the formier, to 99g. The medium of four other flatements (two by M. de la Place, one by Dr. Price, and the other takena frnom Anderfon's hillorica-l and chronological dedudion of the origin of commerce,) gives, for Paris, i o births to ioo 1y deaths: anid the Count de Buffon fays, that, Tn fifty--eight years, the deat:hs in Paris exceeded the births only about , 5 part-. This is a favorable proportion for fo great; a city.-Nlr. Anderfon has given the numbers of annual births and deaths in London, during a term of twenty-fix years; froin wh-ich it is found, that the deaths exceed the births, in that city, at the rate of five to four, very nearly. This flatement^, which gives the proportion of births, in Lon- don, rather- higher than others, fhews, that the mortality of that city is about one-fourth greater, than that of Paris. At Amfterdam and Berlin, according to Dr. Price, the degree of mortality is Rill higher than in London; there being, in the former, to ioo births I69Io deaths, and in the latter, to ioo births 13i deaths. In the city of Norwich, Great-Britain, on a medium of thirty years,

there Since the cedius has been compleated, the proportion appears to be 42 S-1oo to loQ.



DURATION OF IIUMAN LIFE. 37 tllere were, to ioo births, 114T x deaths-That city is fuppofed to contain about 33,000 inhabitants. And at Breflaw, which contains about as many inhabitants as Philadelplhia, the births are to the deaths (taking the nme- dium of two flatements) as ico births to I I9 , deatlhs. TFhe proportions of births to deaths vary, in different countries; and, in large towns, the proportion of the latter is al- ways higher than in country places, cateris paribtus. But, taking the principal countries of Europe, engror, the births- do not exceed the deaths in aniy great degree-I have fubjoined a fcale of thefe proportions, for feveral cities and countries, Inot enumerated in the foregoing flatemnents.

The births (etimnated from the cbri/lenings) in Phila- delphia, in th-e year I788, were 1583; and the burials, exclufive of negroes, amounted to 872. The numnber of negro births for this city, as appears by the bills for the years I 789 and I 790, average I44 per annium. Suppof- ing one-third of this number to be included in the chrjfen- ings, forty-eight mtifi be dedudced from the lift of births. This will give T536 birtlhs, to 87^ deaths, for the year l 788 :-and, taking the average proportion of births to deaths, for four years, it gives to IOO births, 56' deaths. The average number of deaths, among all the white inhabitants of thi-s city, for the three laft years, is 924 per annumf?. The proportion of births. to deathls, in thie Ger- mnan Lutlheran congregation of this city, which compre- hends about one-fifth of all the white inhlabitants, is, on an average of* fixteen years, as one lhundred birtlhs to forty-five deaths: and tlherefore, taking the medium of this proportion and that above flated-, it gives to 0 oo births, so~ deaths. The bills, for the white inh4abitants in this city, for 1789 and 1790, give the proportion as only ioo' births to 49T70A deaths; and, as thefe bills are the mof1

ful! Trhe Rev. Dr. Helmuth, re6lor of the German Lutheran church, in Philadelphia, was fo

obliging as to furxiilh me with theI. lifs..




full and fatisfadcory of any I have yet feen, for Philadel- phia, I think the births may be fairly fiated as being double to the ntumber of deaths.-At Salem in Maffaclhufetts, on a mediuln of the years I782 and I783, the births were to the deatlhs, as ioo births to 49 deaths, including the fIill-born in the number of deaths.-Dr. Holyoke fays (in the memoirs of the American Aca(lemy of Arts and Sciences, Boflon,) that both 1782 and 1783 were fickly at Salem ;-particularly the latter years, in which, during the months of May and June, the meafles were epidemic. The births and deaths at Hingham, in the fame flate, during 54years, gives to ioo births 49,- deaths.-IHence it may be inferred, that, fo far as dedudaions from thefe documents may be relied on, there are two births to one death, in this country.

The peculiar circumfiances of this new country will not permit me to afcertain, from the data ufually employ. ed for fuch purpofes, the comparative longevity of our inhabitants.-Agreeably to Dr. Halley's table for Breflaw,* 34 perfons, out of i ooo, furvive So years of age. In the paper on the longevity of the inhabitants of lpfwich and Hingham, 'in Maffachufetts (communicated to the Bofton Academy, by the Rev. profeffor Wigglefworth,) the writer obferves, that, out of I 64 perfons who died at Ipfwich Hamlet, in ten years, twenty-one perfons furvived eighty years complete; being one in about eight: whereas, at Breflaw, the proportion is one in about thirty-He alfo ftates, that, out of 1,t 13 deaths in 54 years, at Hingham, 84 perfons furvived 8o years complete; being one in 13 4T. It is obferved by Mr. Morfe, in his American Geography, that the ftate of Conne&ficut, though fubjeal to the extremes of heat and cold, in their feafons, and to frequent, fudden changes, is very healthful. He fays, that as many as one in

46 This does not, however, by any means, correfpond with M. Buffon's efimate; as he

makes the-proportion to be only 27 63-100 out of I00.--



DURATION or HUMAN LIFE. 39

46 of the inhabitants of Conneaicut, who were living in 1774, were upvards of feventy years old: and that it is found, from a&tual calculations, that abotut one in eiglht live to the age of feventy years; one in thirteen, to the age of eighty; and one in about thirty, to the age of ninety years.-" From the i ft January 1 77 I, to the i it January I 777,---239 perfons died at Milford, (Connedicut;) of whiclh thirty-three, or about one feventh part, wvere up_ Nvards of feventy years old---and eighty four. From Jan. Iff I77 I, tO June 3d 1782, died at Milford, 417 perfons; of which, thirty-one (or about one thirteenth part of the whole nurnber) were eighty years old, and upwards. O- ther calculations of a fimilar kind, continuies Mr. Morfe, made in different parts of the fame ftate, from the bills of mortality, confirm the juftnefs of the above proportion."-- Thie number dying in Philadelphia, ag,-ed upwards ofeighty years, during the year i 789, is in the proportion of a- bout twrenty-four and an half out of i ooo perfons. Thofe dying after that age, and upwards to the age of 10I inclufive, muff have been born between i688 and the end of I 709. During this term of twenty-one years (commenc- ing about fix years after the firft fettlement of Europeans, on this fpot,) it is not probable that more than iooo children wcre born here; and, even admitting that all of thefe died lhere, the proportion offuch could not, agreeably to Dr. Halley's efimate, exceed thirty-four, during the year I 789. But it is probable, that many of thofe who were born here, during the above mentioned term of twenty-one years, had removed from the city, prior to the year I789; and it is alfo probable, thatfome of thofe who died at Philadelphia in that year, aged upwards of eighty, were not nativesof this city It may, therefore, be&prefumed, that the chanlces of an addition to tlhe number of thofe dying after eighty, whiich have been loft by the removal of natives before that age, maybe balanced by

the



40 OBSEERVATIONS ON TH1z

the fame number of non-natives, who died here after eigh. ty, in the courfe of that year. In this cafe, thie number of thofe who die at Philadelphia, after completing the 8oth year of their age, compared with the total number of deaths in the year 1789, will fland in the proportion of 24I- of the former, to i ooo of the latter. It mull be obvious, to any perfon conlidering this fubjed, that every calculation of the probabi-lities of the duration of life, at the later periods of life, and of the proportions, which the numbers of thofe dying at very advanced periods of its exif- tence, bear to the numbers of fuch as die, at its early and middle ages,-tnuft neceffarily give a more unfatisfadtory refult, than fimilar eflimates for the antecrior periods of life -This is the cafe, in fome degree, wh-ien applied to a-ny country; under whatever circumfiances the applicati- on may be mrade: the obfervation is true, in a greater degree, when applied to towns, whether great or fmall and it is Rill more jufi, with refpeed to Amlerican towns ; by reafon of the infant fate of our country,-the continual fluduation in the migrations of the inhabitants,.-and the rapid increafe of population, as well in our capitals as in the country generally.-The reafon of my not having gone higlher than the age of ioi years comnplete, is, that M. Buffon, in his general tablle of the probabilities, &c. mnakes no calculatioln for any age bevond that period of life: out of 23,994 deaths, he eflimates only two to be livinig after the completion of the i O i fi year, and nonte at I 02.

A further dat2cm for afcertaining the fuperiority of this country, in the progrefs of its population, is founded on the proportion which the annual deaths bear to the whole number of the living, in different countries.-In Dr. Price's effay on the expedfation of lives, flate of London, popu. lation, &c. it is laid down, as the refult of various cal. culations, that in London and Edinburgh, there die an.. nually about one in twenty-one; in Dublin, one in twen.

ty



DURATION or HUMAN LIFE. 41

ty-twoo; in Rorne, one in twenty-three; in Amfterdam, one in twenty-four, &c. M. Sufmilch makes the pro. portion of tlofe who die, annually, ingreat towns, to be from 4T to 3?; in moderate towns, from it to3!T; and, in the country, from 3? to 3?. But Dr. Price fuppofes the followving proportions morejuft, viz. Great towns, from 3? or I?, to 3? or T?; moderate towns, from 3?to 278;

'and tlle country, from 'T or -r to -U or -Z and hie is of opiniion, with M. Sufmilch " that, taki-ng a whole country in grofs, including all cities and villages, mankind enjoy among them about thirty-two or thirty-three years, each, of exiflknce; or,-which am-ounts to the fame thing,--that one out of thirty-two or thirty-three dics annuallv.-Sir William Petty, in his effays otn political arithmetic, fays-that in the country, in England, one dies out of thirty-two; and, that five are born to four that die. "4 This lafi faa, ' fays M. Buffon,' agrees pretty vell witlh whlat lhappens in FIrance: but if the firif fact be true, it follows, that the falubrity of the air in France is muchi greater than in England,-in the proportion of thirty-five to thirty-two;-for, it iscertain, that, in the countiy in France, no more than ont dies out of thirty-five."-M. Sufinilch -makes tlhe proportion, as deduiced from 1-098 country pariflhes in Germany, to be one out of forty-three. He likewife gives the proportion of one to forty-five for a country parifh in Brandenburgh: and M. Muret eflablifhes the fame, for the Pais de Vaud,--(See Dr. Price's obfervaa tions, &c.) The two laft are the highefi proportions I find for any part of Europe. In Madeira,'-(an Africat- 1land) Dr. Heberden fiates the proportion to be one in fifty-the climate of that Ifland, it is true, is remarkably falubrious: but Dr. Price thinks the eftimate of Dr. Hleberden is exceptionable. Large towns give the proportions dying out of the whole number, much higher,-even at Breflaw- which has, in this kind of calculations, been Rtiled the \TOL. IlI. F Britib



42 OBSER VATI O NS ON THE

Brit/hflanda-rd oj life,-the proportioni is Rated as being one to twenty-eight.- It appears, however, by the number of inhabitants in Philadelphia and Salem, that in the former-a town about as populous as Breflaw-the proportion is one to forty-five; aind in Salem, one to forty-feven.

There is no circumflance that affords a more fdriking proof of the rapid progreffion of population in this coLun- try, than thle prodigious increafe in the nurmnbers of our people, fin-ce the original fettlements of Europeans on thefe hfiores. The firft fettlement made by Europeans, within the prefent limits of the United States, was irn Virginia, by a colony confiding of about one huin(direc Engliflh, in the year I607. The ho.norable iMIr. Jeffer0on (in his notes on Virginia) remnarks, that, about the year 1654, the progreflion in the population of that Rate became pretty uniform ; inmportations having in a great mea- fure ceafed, and thle inhabitants become too numerous to be fenfibly affedted by Indian wars. Beginning, at that period, therefore, fays this gentleman, we find,-" tl-hat from. thenice to the year I 772, our tythes had increafed from 7,029, to I53,000."-The whole term beingof i 8 years, yields a duplication once in every 27 4 years. The intermediate enumerations, taken in 1700, 1748 and I759, furnifh proofs of the uniformity of this progreffion."- A very inconfiderable colony of Englifli formed a fettle- inentat PZlymouth, in New-England, in I620. In I643, 2I,2.00 perfons, alfo emigrants from Britain, fettled in New-England: and, fince that period, it is fuppofed more have emigrated from thetnce, th-ian tlh-e numbers who hlad gone thither woLuld amount to.* In the year 1760, they were increafed half a million.-T-Theretore, as Dr. Price obferves, they have all along doubled their own number, in twenty-five years. Two years fince, Mr. Morfe eftimated .ho. number of people in New-England, at 623,000.

oux * Sec a difcourf on Chriian union, by Dr. Stiles-3oflon, i761.



DURATION oF HUMAN LIFE. 43 Our late Prefident, the illuftrious Franklin, was of opi-.

nion, that the people of thefe fiates double their number in twenty years.* Dr. Price feemis to think---that, " in the back fettlements, where the inhabitants apply tlhem- felves entirely to agriculture, and luxury is not known, they double their own numbers in fifteen years; and all through the Northern colonies, in twenty-five years ; which, continues Dr. Price, is an inftance of' increafe fo rapid, as to hiave fcarcely atny parallel."---Even in Ma-W cdeira----where, according to Dr. Heberden, only ,,", part of all the inhabitants die annually,---it is faid they do not double tlleir number in lefs than eighty-four years.

'I'o affift us in forming a fatisfadory judgment, refpedt- ,ing the probabilities of the duration of life, in this cotun- try---a confideration intimately connedted, in the prefent enquiry, with the caufes of the quick progrefs of its po- ,upulationi---it becomes neccifary to examine into the ii longevity of thle inhabitants.---Having noticed, in the preceding part of tlhefe obfervations, that nearly one half of the people, in the Northern and mniddle flates of the union, ,are unrder fixteen years of age- although Dr. Halley fliates, that, in Europe, the proportion of fuch is only one- -third----the inferetnce, neceffarily refulting from thefe fads, is---either, that the probability of the continuance of life is greater here than in Europe, between the birth and lixteen years of age, out of equal numbers born; or, if the probabilities are equal, prior to that period of life, in the two countries refpedively-that the proportion of births to the number of inhabitants, here, exceeds that in Eiurope ;---or, on the other hand, that the probabilities of life are lower in this country, fubfequent to that period.

F 2 From Obfervations concerning the increafe of mankind, peopling of countries, &:c. f "Thofe inhabitants of Pennfylvania, who have acquired the arts of confdrming to the

changes of our weather, in drefs, diet, and manners, efcape moft of thofe acute difeafes, which are occafioned by the fenfible qualities of the air: and faithful enquiries and obfervations have proved, that they attain to as great ages, as the fame number of people in any part of the wrorld."---Dr. Rufh's account of the climate of Pennfylvania, &c.



44 O13SERVATIION ON TIHE

From circuinfances which have been already flated, it is evident the proportion of births, to the exifling number of 'the wlhole people, is greater here thlan in Europe: buIt it is not probable that this excefs is greater than in the pro- portioin of one-half to one-third--A prefume it is rather' lefs.--If, however, this excefs be in the ratio of three to, twos the chances of life from the birth to fixteei will, in' this cafe, be the fame in both countries. On this fuppo- fitiorn, then, the probabilities in favor of the continuaance of life after fixteen, through all the fubfequent flages of its poffible exiflence, muff be higher here than in Europe: becaufe, as I have fhewn, otAy one in forty-five die annually, even in the city of Phliladelplhia; wlhereas, in France, the proportion is one in thirty-five, and in En- gland, one in tlhirty-three.

In addition to what-has been faid-, refpediing the loo-'e.., vity of the inhlabitants of ConneAic-ut, andI of Hingham- and lpfwvich-Hamlet in Maflachufetts, I (hiall mention a, few remarkable inftances of longevity, which have occturred in other parts of the union--They are not adduced as being, of thenfelves, proofs- of American longevity; but rather to evidence its reality, in fuch cafes as ferve to carrobo- rate the trutl of the pofition, that the people of this country are long-lived.---The inflatces are the follo-wing.---In the year I 765, a Mr. Temple di-ed in the cournty of Wor-. cefter, Maffachufetts, aged eighty-fix years--He left eight children, four fons and four daughters, all of w-hoimiwere living in September 1t788; and their ages, were as-follkw, viz. 89, 8j 83, &f, 79, 77, 75, and 73. Jllohn Sydenham (commonly called Sidmani) was livring, near Mount Holly, in the flate of New-JTerfey, on the 5-th of November I 788-: he was thlen i o6 years atnd three months old-This man wvas born near Exeter, irn England; but was brought to America, wNhen, only eighteen months of age.-Edward Drinker was borEn in Philadelphia, December 24th,. x 6So,

and



DURATION OF HUMIAN LIFE. 45 and died November i7th, 1782.-Mr. Hooton, a native of the city of New-York, was livirng laft fummer (and I believe is fill alive,) in the diflriat of Southw ark; aged, at that time, upwards of I--J7 years.-I-n the bill of mortality for Chrift church and St. Peter's, in this city, in the year I775, 1 obferve the deathl of one perfon, aged 120 years. 'IThe Pennfylvania Mercury of the i ft of March, 17"8, has, republlifhed frotn a Wilmington paper under the date of Flebruary 27th, the names of fifty perfons then living, in Ananeffex and Pocomoke Hundreds, So. inerfet county, in the flate of Maryland,--all.of great ag,es of thefe, twenty-three were upwards of ninety years of age; fixteen, upwards of eighty-feven; andl eleven, aged eighty-five.--In. the year I775, Mrs. Lear died at Portf- mouth, New-Hampfhire, at the age of I 03 years. In the fame year, Mrs. Abigail Mayo died at Cambridge, Maffa. chuffetts, aged xo6 years. And Mr. Williamn i Ward, a native of Fairfield, in Conneficut, died in the ftate of New-York, alfo in the year 1v75, aged lo0 years, four months and twenty days,

On the 2Qth of Sept. i788, diedat his featin Albemarle countly, Virg.* Danwiel Maup'in, who was born on the 25th of Marel, 17,00. At the timiie of his death, there were li ving-, of his offspring, upwards of 20o perfons, including iome of the fifth generation. His, wife was then alive and in good health; and it was not known that any female of her generation, after attaining to the years of a woman, died under the age of eighty-five years.---About three years fince, Artlhur Bibbington died at Wyndham inCon- neaficut, aged 1o7 yea4rs-:9--And, about the fame time Mrs. Jane Brafher dlied in the city of INew-lYo k, at the age of a 102 years.---Timothy Matlhck, Efq. clerk of the Senate of Pennfylvania, has favored me with a communi- cation of the following faa:s, tranfcribed from a note made by him, a&bout twenty-four years fince-4JI)on reading a

paragraphs



46 OBSERV ATIONS o N TriE

paragraph in a Philadelphia paper, reptublilhed from an Eg,lJh paper, mentioning that five brotlhers, the fons of one mnotlher, lhad mnet, whofe agyes, added together, amounted to 31I years,-his mother (a widow) oblferved, that fhe hiad five brotlhers and fillers, then living-the children of one man and one woman, wlhofe ages, added to her own amounted to upwards of 400 years-He alfb mentions, that there Nwere thien living, of the brothers and fillers of his father, fix perfons- the children of one man and on e woman, -whofe ages added tocether amounted to 426 years; all of wlhom were horn in weft New-Jerfey---At the fame time, his wife obferved, tthat her father had fix brothers and fiflers---the children of one man and one wo- ana-,---all born in Pcnnfylvania and thcn living,--whofe a-ges added together, including hit own, amounts to 470- Tro thefe circumflances, his mother added, that fhe and her two fiflers had borne tlilrty-feven children; of whom thirty were tllen living,---and the youngeft of them, feven- teen years old. Hence it appears, that the mean age of thefc nineteen peifons---who may be confidered as of one fanily---exceeded fixty-eight years. Mr. Matlack adds, that hie is not certain whether any of his father's brothers bIe now living; althotugh fome of them were alive, within a few years palt: But, that the laft of his inother's fillers died four years fince, and the laft of his wife's uncles di- cd within a few months paft.`

But Allitional Iylances of Lowgevdty, Zin Amcerica.

On the 4th of February, r787, died in Pennfylvania, in the ic-d year of his age, Jacob Wifmer, a native of Germany. In ueen Anne's reign, he emigratedto N. Carolina, where he lived ten years; after which he fettled in Bucks county in Pennfylvania, where he married hiis tlhird vwife, with whom he had a 70 children, grand-childrcn and great grand-children; and left his widow, about 84 years old.-He niuft have refided in America, at leY? 72 years.

Zachariah, regent of the Mohegan tribe,of Indians, died in his Wigwam, in Pomichang ear- Norwich, in Conne6licut, in the I00 year of his age-in the year I787. Mrs. Hannah Flagg, died at Bofton,at the age of 102 years-in the year 1787. Dr. Bernard Vanlcar died in Delaware county, Pennfylvania, in the I04th year of his age-

in the year 1790. At Exeter in New-Hampfhire, in 1790, Mr. Thonmas Hayley,-aged I01 years. At Southborough in Maffachufetts, in a 790, Mrs. Newton,-aged io6 years-Her mother

lived II3 years, and her fiftcr Ioz yean. At



.DURATION oF HUMAN LIFE.

But numerous and remarkable inflances of American longrevity are, by no tneans, confined to the Northern and middle flates. On the authority of two gentlemen of re- fpefaability and obfervationi one from Virginia-and the: other from North-Carolina,---I am warranted in faying, fuch inftances occur in thofe ftates, as induce a belief, that their climiates are favorable to a lonCg duration of hu-

man At Thomfon in Conneicut, in I790, Mr. Henry Elthorp-aged IoS years. At Albai y, in the (late of New-York, in 1790, Mr. Abraham Vanverts,-aoed 224 years. At lEaft-lladdon, in Maffaliufetts, in 1790, Mr. XVeeks Willianms,-aged soo years. At Wiodhaim in Connedlicut, in i788, Mr. Arthur Ribbini-aged Iio years and ten

months. At Cheflcrfield in Virginia, in 1788, Daniel Nunally-aged 1-oS years; At Wilmingtcn in the ftate of Delaware, in 17889, Mr. Chriflopher Hen7itkfon,-aged

upwards of I1O ycars.--He was one of the firft Swedifh fcttltrs onI the Delaware. At Northampton in Maffachufetts, in 1788, Mr. Jofiah Clark--aged 92 years. He wsas thle

you2ngefl of i I children (fix fons and five daughters,) three of whom lived to be above 90, four azbove 80, and three above 70 years of age. From the fixfoins, only, hiave defcended 1 X5 v

children, granid-children and great-grand children; 925 whom arc now living. At Dover inNew-lianrpfhire, Mrs. Margant Wilht, in 1787---ged aca ycars. In B3erks county, Pennfylvania, in 1789,.Jofeph Mountz,---aged iOO ycars. At Ncw-l.,ondon, Connedlicut, in 17^89, Mlrs. D)owfctt,---aged ioz years. In thc city of New-York, in I 789, MIrs. Elizabaeth Lynch,---aged I04 years. At Great Barrington, in Maffachufetts; in i789, Mrs. Chapm4in,---aged iow ycars; In couthl-Carolina, not long fince, Mrs. Dedclt,_---aged upwards of ioo ycars; Mlrs. Maffey,

ged io; and Mrs. Mfafifcy's nurfe, aged II5 years. I am indelbted to Jonathan Williams, jon. Efq. one of the Secretares of the A. P. S. for the

following inIfances of American Longievity, which he was fo obliging as to tranfmit to me, frorm Richmiond in Virginia, in June laft -viz.

Abraham Eades, now living in Albemarle county Virginia, is IIO years old.---His wife died at Ioo, and they were married 8c years.

.A mian of the name of Ice, Monorgalia county Virginia, is now living---IO6 years old. A Mr. Craflon, King and Q2cen county Virginiia, is W4 years old, iiow living. John Dance, of Cheilerfield.county Virginia died at isS years old. He began to cut teeth

IbeXor his death.

$ Dr. Williamjon. Tbis Gentleman basghven me Perm;fi on to make i!/ cf tbefollo.wing letter, on this occaJ n

S I R, It is not pofrible to give a general rule which {hall apply to the feveral parts of North-Caro-

lina, in anfwer to) your queftions concerning the duration of human life in that flate. I n theeaft- ern part of the ltate, witlhin fifty or fixty miles of the fea, where the country is flat alnd there are many nmarlhes, the inhabitants are much affli6led during the fummer and autumn by intermitting andl other bilious fevers. During th wvinter, as the cold isfeldom intenfe and by no means conftant or certain, the inlhabitants in general are not fufficiently careful to defend themfelves againft the cold: hence many, in the vigor of life, nmen efpecially, are cut off in a few days by plcuritic or other inflammatory fevers. Such is the (late of the fluids in thofe who have becn reduced by intermittents during the autumn, that they feldlom refift inflamlmlatory fevcras Time and obfcrvation will douhtlefs teach the inhabitants, by keeping themfelves dry and warm, to prevcnt what they cannot readily cure. There are inftances nevcrthelefa of a confiderable degree of old age, in that very climate. In the weftern parts of North-Carolina, to- wards the mountain, the inhabitants enjoy a great degree of health. Many of them have vce ry numerous families and attain to old age. As that country was long the refidence of a ma- teual anceftor, I have probably been more attentive to the progrefs of population there. we



43 O B S E R VATIONS ON T HBE

man life. The fame may be obferved, wAith refpea to t Soutli-Carolita and Georgia, int which flates the climate is falubrious; although low, flat parts of the country, and fuclh as lie in the vicinity of the rice and indigo fwamps, as well as the bad quality of the water in fuch fituations, render fome parts of thofe countries unhealthy.-Even in Eaft-Florida (if Captain Bernard Romans is to be credit- ed), the climnate is very healthful--.St. Augufline, the

capital We have fome reafon for believing, that on the weft de of the Apellachian mountain, in the

territory ceded by North-Carolina, the period of human life may be extended to what would be calledl a great length in any part of the wvorld.

In that country, there are few marflcs -or ponds of ftagnant water. The foil is dry, and lime flone abounds ever)y where: the water is confecquently very good.

In or near the latitude of 36 degrees, we are neither to expe&r the extremes of heat nor cold; but we have noted caufes in this very latitude, which are very injurious to health : thefe caufes Jlo .%ever do not exift in the country of which I am fpealcing. The iApellachian mountain effe Iu_ ally prttc6ls the inhabitants fronm the moift anid cold eafterly winds with which w,ve are afflired in the Atlantic flates; and the North-Weft *wind, in fuch a latitude, at fuch a diftance froml thei ocean an(l cn the veft fidle of thofe great.mountains,.haslittle of that piercingquality by * hliick it is eiftinguiflhed in this pat.tof the world. From the cicuwnflances menitioned you would infer, and cxperience fupports the iniferenice, that the inhabitants of that country areneither af fli6led witl intermitting fevers, inflanmmiiatory fevers, confuniptions, nor other difeafes, whichi are ufually induced by heat atnd naoiflure or by a fudden check to the perfpiratiCn. As no part ef that couintry has been fettled muchi more than twenty years, we are not to expe6 many ini- flances of extreme old age, among the inhabitant,; but appearances are in favour of long life. In the year I 789, Jonathan Tl ipton died, in Walhington County near Halfion River, aged Ios years: he had livedi there 20o years. Benjamin Cobb, Val. Sevier, and others, have been nmenition- ed to me, asperIlons now livinig in that country, above 9o years old, who enjoy perfe&t health; and ride aboit, as ufu4l, in purfuit of bitfinefs or amufement.

I am Sir,

With the utnmoft refpc&c

Your obedient Servant,

Philadelphia, I17th March, 1791 I IU. WILLIAMSON,

t The author of a work, entitled-" An hiftoriczl account of the rife and progrefs of the Colonies of South-Carolina atid Georgia" (printed in London, in 1779,) obferves, that in South-Carolina, in the months of July, Auguft and September, the heat in the lhaded air, from noon to three o'clock, is often betvween go? and Ioo0: but, that fuch extreme.heat is of fho-t duration. He fays, he has feen the mercury, in Fahrenheit's Theremometer, rife in the fhade to 960 in the hotteft, and fall to 160 in the coolcft feafon of the year; and that otlhershave oIbferved it as high as iOC and as low as io0-He obferves that the nmean diurnal heatof the dif. fcrent feafons, in South-Carolina, has been, upon the moft careful obfervation, fixed at 640 in fpring, 790 in fumnier, 72? in autumn, and Sz? inwvintcr; and the mean no6lurnal heat, inl thofe feafonis, at s6c in fpring, 759 iri fummer, 680 in autumn, and 460 in winter; The mean tcmperature of the air is, therefore, in South-Carolina, (at leaft, in the kvel and maritimne parts of the flate) 64, wlhich is zzio lefs than what Dr. Ruih.mentions to be the flandard temperature of the air, in the city of Philadelphia, viz. s5z*.-" It has been ohferved (fays the author of the hiflory of Carolina, &c.) that, in proportion as the lands have been cleared and inmproved, and fcope given for a more free circulation of air, the climate has likewife become

more



DURATION or HUMAN LIFE. 49 capital of that province, is, in his opinion, as healthy a fpot as any on the continent. He afferts, that the Spanifh inhabitants lived here to a great age; and that the people of the Havanna confidered it as their Montpelier, fre- quenting it for the fake of health.---According to Captain Romans, the climate of Weft-Florida agrees, in every re- fpedc, with that in the Northern divifion of Eaft-Florida; excepting that the winters are fomewhat more fevere, in the former--- He fays there were fuch inflances of longevity in Weft-Florida, as were not to be outdone in any part of America. Yet circumftances, fimilar to tlhofe which render particularfituations, in fome of our Southern ftates, unfavorable to health,---produce fimilar effedts in fome parts of thefe two provinces; though in a greater degree. Clavigero (in his hiflory of Mexico) afferts that Calmecahua, one of the Tlafcalan captains who affifted VOL. III. G the more falubrious and pleafant. This change was more remarkable in the heart of the country, than in the maritime parts, where the left plantations of rice are, and where vater is carefully preferrved to ovefjozv tbeflds : yet eveni in thofe places, cultivation has been attended with falu- tary effeds---time and experience lad now taught the planters, that, during the autumnal months, their liviiig among the lowv rice plantations fubjeded them to many diforders, from which the inhabitants of the ca ital were entirely exempt:- rThis induced the richer part to retreat to Tozvn, during this unhealthy feafon. Governor Ellis has mentionied that, on the 7th of July, while he was writin, in his piazza, in Savanna, the Mercury flood at io20 in the fhade ; that it had twice rifen to that height, during the fummer, feveral times to IGO? and, for many days together, to 98"; and in the night, it did not fink below 890. He had the fame thermometer with him, in the equatorial parts of Africa, in Jamaica, and in the Lew- ard iflands: yet it appears, that he never found it fo high in thofe places ;---its general flation was between 790 and 860. He acknowledges, however, that he felt thofe degrees of heat, in a mofl air, more dfagreeable than at Sa'vanna, when the themometer flood at 84' in his cellar, at soa" in the flory above it, and in the upper flory of his houfe, at io05.-And he afferts, that few people died at Savanna, out of the ordinary courfe; though many were working in the open air, expofed to the ftn during this extreme heat, (See notes to the tables, NO. II.) 'The town of Savanna being fituated on a fandy eminence, greatly increafes the heat of that fpot: But the climiatc of Georgia, in general, like that of South-Carolinia, is more mild and temperate in the inland, than in the maritime parts. And the late Dr. Moultrie,-who re. fided, and pradtifed phyfic with great reputation, in South-Carolina, fifty years-was of opi. nion, that Charlefton is as healthy a fpot, as any upon earth.-A writer, in a late Charlefton paper-who fubfcribes the fignature H. I. and dates from St. Johns, Berkeley, (fuppofed to he Henry Laurens, Efq; ) fays he has frequently heard Dr. Moultrie declare tlhat opinion : and this writer gives the names of fifteen perfons, who had died in South-Carolina, within a fhort time paft, whofe ages average 83- each:-three of the fifteen averaged ioS5 years, each. fie naentitons, alfo, that a great number of other inflances nmight be adduced, of perfons wlio within his own memory, lived to the like great ages;-feveral, upwards of Ioo yrars.

On the whole, it is evident--that, in South-Carolina and Georgia, the flat, marfhy parts of the couintry, and the artificial fwanp s which the culture of Rice and Indigo render neceffa- 17,-are, only, unhealthfol: but that high, airy and dry fituations, in thofe Rlates, experi ence no fuch effved, from the heat of the climate.



5s O13SERV AT IONS ON THuE

the Spaniards, in the conqueft of Mexico, lived I30 years. He alfo makes mention of a Jefuit, who died in that country at the age of 132 ; and of a Francifcan, who died in Sombrerete, aged 117, 7imaking preachings to the people, uintil the laft month of his life. " We' could (fays this author) make a long catalogue of thofe,- who, in the t-wo centuries pafi, have exceeded one hundred years of life; in thefe countries :---particularly among the Indians, there are not a few, who reach 90 and ioo years; preferving, to old age, their hair black, their teeth firm, and their countenance frefh."-Don Ulloa (in his Noticias Ameti- canas) fays, that, in general, the American Indians lixve to a great age.---This longevity, attended in general- with uninterrupted health, is thought, by fome writers, to be the confequence in part of their vacancy from ferious thought and employment, joined alfo with the robuft texture and conformation of their bodily organs. If, continues this writer, the Indians did not defiroy one another, in their almofi perpetual wars-- and if their habits of intoxication were not fo univerfal and incurable, they woAld be, of all the races of men who inhabit the globe, the moft likely to extend, not only the bounds, but the enjoyments of ani- mal life, to their utmoft duration.

In the courfe of thlefe obfervations, I have endeavoured to fhew----and,JI flatter myfelf, not altogether without fuc. cefs,---that the probabilities of life, in all its ftages, from its commencement to the utmoft poffible verge of its dui- ration, are higher in thefe United States, than in fuch Eu-. ropean countries, as are efleemed the- moft favorable to life. And, if this pofition be well founded, it follows---that the bodily conftitutions of the American peopl-e are proporti. onably healthful. For, although it may be deemed pro- blematical by fome, whether an extraordinary degree of vigor, in the fyflem of the humanbody, affords a greater probability of attaining to extreme old age, than, cteteris

paribu.4



DIURATION oF HUMAN LIFE. St paribws, is annexed to a more delicate frame ;---yet it will not admit of a doubt, that a great portion of vital energy and flrength mufi neceffarily exift, where the probabilities of life are high throughout all its pcriods---from the birth, until the ufual term of its duration be compleated.

T he climate of much the greater portion of the UInited States furnifhes great degrees of* heatand cold, in their Tefpedive feafons ; but neither of the extremes is of long continuance. Our climate is alfo very t variable, the temperature of the-atmofphere being liable to great and fudden viciffitudes. Neverthelefs, taking the whole rontine of the feafons, we enjoy a -large proportion of fine and moderate weather; with more days of t ftin-hine and ferene fky, than, perhaps, any part of Europe exhibits. A very confiderable part of * France experiences greater

G 2 extremes 0 Dr. Ruth has noticed-in his acco:unt of the climate of Pennfylvania---that " the greatef

etegree of heat upon record, in Pkiladelpbia,-is 95 :" but the obfervations made at Spring- Mill (I3 miles from Philadelphia, in lat. 40Q. 9',) fhew---that.the Mercury rofe to 960, at tat place, on the -3d of July, 1787; yet then mean degree of heat, during that day, was only 850 8-zo.----See Columlbian Mag. for Augutd 1787.

t Dr. Rufh"--in his account of the climate cf Pennfylvania---has cited the authority of Dr. Iluxam, to thew---that the healthie{t feafons in Great-Britain have oftea been accompanied by the moil variable weather. And Dr. T. Bond- --in his oration before the Philofophical fociety, in 178z---remarks, that " we live in a healthy, though the mo{t variable and a&ive,climate, in the univerfe"---" Hiffory (he obferves, further) and the firft fettlers of this country agree, that the native Indians of North-America were found, by the Europeans, to be a fout, hardy, brave, virtuous, healthy, and remarkably long-lived people." After other obfcrvations on -this fubjed, the Dodoor continues thus-.-" I am fenfible this opinion, of the advantages re- Lulting from a changeable atmofphcre, is counter to the common notions of mrankind :---it is neverthelefs true, and adopted by the beft writers ;--. and not only confirmed by meteorological and morbid .regiders, and the general laws of creation; but will further Rand the tefd of hif- torical enquiPy."

t " The month cf May, I 786, will long be remembered, for having furnifhed a very un- cotmamon infdance of the abfence of the fun for fourteen days, and of contdant damp or rainy weather." -Dr. Ruih's account of, &c.

* Mr. Jefferfon (in .his notes on Virginiia) makes mention, that, "at Williamfturg, in Auguf 1766, the mercury in Fahrenheit's thermometer was at 980 corrcfponding with 29- of Reaumur-At the-fame place, in January I178o, it was at 6? correfponding with lx i below o, of Reaumur At Paris, in I 75-3, the mercury in Reaumur's thermometer was at 3cX above o; and, in a 776, it was at I6 below o :---the extrtmitics of heat and cold, therefore, at Paris, are greater than at Williamsfburg, which is the hottef part of Virgin a."---Captain Romans fays---that, in Eadt-Florida, on fome fultry- hot days in July and Auguid, he has known the mercury rife to 940 of Falarenheit's fcale: hut that, durilngthe fummer, the general height of the mercury wasbetween 540, and 880, when the thernmometer was placed in the fliade, accelfible to a free circulation of the air.---At the Norriton obfervatory (in lat. 40?. 91. 35k', and about twenty miles Wefdward from Philadelphia,) the mercury in Fahrenheit's tjhermometet-r-not expofed to the fun ihine, but open to the air---was at 94X, on the sth of July, I769; which was the greateit height it-had veYr been obferved to rife to, at that place.

(from




extremes of heat and cold, than the United States in gene. ral: yet we find that country to be more favorable to fe. cundity and life, than England, whiere the fumtmiers and winters are tlefs intemperate. And in the Swifs Can- tons atnd Sweden,-where the frequent and fudden clhanges, in the temperature of the atmofphere, are very.fimilar to the viciffitudes which prevail in ouir own climate,-the na_ tives are a hiardy, vigorous and healthful people. Accord- ing to M.Catteau, in his general view of Sweden, the winters in that country are long, dry and extremely cold; the fummers fhort, and exceedingly hot; and the inhabitants experience a rapid change from the former of thefe feafons to the latter, fpring and autuimn being almoft un- known to them. The pure and fharp air which the Swedes breathe (this writer further obferves,) renders themn vigorous, and preferves them from epidemical difeafes: and he refers to a memoir publifhed by M. Wargentin, to ihew, that there are numerous inflances of thieir attaining to a very great age. ihe (Prom a letter dated July 26, I769, from Mr. Rittenhoufe, to the late Rev.. Mr. Barton --penes W. Barton.)-VDr. Ruih, in his account of the dlimate of Penafylvania, obfervees-that the sirrcury in Fahrenheit's thermometer flood at 9S." on the i5th of Auguf 1779, at Philadel. phia, (which is the higheft degree to which it has ever been known to rife in this city;) and that it flu&iuated between 930. and 800. for many weeks. The Daoor fays it flood, for feveral hours, at 5?. below 0, in January 1780, at Philadelphia; and, during the whoIe of that month, excepting one day, it never rofe- to the freezinig point, in the city.---It appears by Mr. Wigglerfworth's thermometrical obfervations --(publifiehd in the memoirs of the Boflon Academy, for the year 1783,) that, at Cambridge in Maffachulretts, in Augufl, 1780, the mercury was at 9gz. of Fahrenheit's fcale.

t I have faid " lef intemnperate"---The climate of England is, by no ineans, a temperate one. 'hat country not only experiences great extremes of heat and cold; but the weather is remarkably variable and inconflant, with very frequent rains: T he tranfitions from heat to cold, and from moiflure to drynefs---and vice verfa---are fud(len, and confiderable in tlhcir degree. On the i8th of June i 788, the mercury, by Fahr:nheit's fcale, was at 880. in Lon- don; and, on the 3oth and 3 aft days of December, in the fame year, it fell to 4 at the city of Canterbury.--On the 5th of January followinig, the mercury was at SI at the !atter place. Tl he weather was very fevere, in England, from the zif of December a 788, to the I ith of January z 7889; during which term, the mercury rofe twice to 44 '. and once to 45?. Even at Sienna in Italy---in lat. 430. Wo'---during the fame interval of time, the mercury fell, on the 3Sft of December 1788, to io?; anid, on the sith of January following, it rofe an3- 'Irhe obfervations at Canterbury and Vienna, were taken fromn two Sixian thermometers. (See Gent. Mag. for February and May, 1789.)---l alfo find, that, on the 2aft and zd days of laft June, the mercury was at 860. in London, by Fahrenheit's thernmometer: and an En. glifh gentleman affures me, he has known a froft happen, in England, in the laft week in Ja- Jyj.--Dr. Rufh, in his account of the climate of Pennfylvania, mentions Mr. Rittenhoufe's ha.v. ing informed him, that he had never paffed a fummer, during his refidence in the country, without difcovering fro$l in every month of the year, excepting :7Iu,.



DURATION oF HUNMAN LIFE.

The winters, in our own country,4 brace and invigo- rate the bodies of the people: and the genial warmnthi of our fummers increafes the* generative principle of aiimal nature :-the cold is accompanied with a pure andt elaftic atmofphere; and, during the continuance of the greateft heats, the air is frequently: correated by thunder-guas and plentiful fhowers of refreflhing rain.--Fhe face of the countlry, too, is of fuch a nature, as mnulft contribute to the falubrity of the climate-The United States are, in general, diverfificd with hills and vallies, miountains and plains: and Ariftotle obferves, that people do not feel the effedts of age fo foon, in hiilly, as in flat couutries.

Wh-at has been premifed, concerning the longgevity of the inhabitants of tiefe flates, will, I prefuLne, be an am- ple refutation of thofe wvriters, whl7o, influeniced b) Euro- pean prejudices, or confidering. the fubjed in a fuperficial manner, have afferted, that the Americans are not fo long-. lived as the Europeans.

On the whole I truft, that the points, wiyhich it was my principal defign to afcertain, have been fatisfa6lorily efl-a- blifhed. With a view, however, to a furtller illufiration of this inter-efling fubje6l, I hi-ave formed the tables (which are annexed hereto,) ihewing the niumbers dying aninually

out t Zimmerman, treating of the effe6is of a cold climate, fays- ." Frigoris igitur perennitas,

ct artus, et integra corpora, comprimendo corroborat, eflicitque ut naturam long,e firmiorem, Talentioremque induant."---Zool..Geograph.

* From a table of the baptifms, mnarriages and deaths, at Paris, frem 1745 to s766 (both inclufive,) the Countde Buffon has fhewn,---that the months in vhich the greateft nunmber of children werc born, 'are March, January and February; anid that thofe in which the feweil were born, are June, December and November: from which circtm{flanice, he infers.--that, in the climate of Frarnce, the heat of Summer contributes to the fuccefs of genleration.---(Sup- plement to hiis nat hift.)

t "TIlhe air in Pennfylvania, when dry, has a peculiar elafticity, which renders the heat and cold lefs infupportable than the fame degrces of both are, in moifter climates. It is on'y in thofe cafes wlsen fummer-Ihowers are not fucceeded by North-Wefl winds, that the heat of the air becomes oppreffive and difirefling, from beinig combined with moifture." Dr. Rufh's account of, &c.

t " The heat of Summer feldom continues more than two or three days, without being fuc- ceededby fhowersof raini, accompaniied fometimes with thunder andi lightning, and afterwards with a North-Weft wind,-. which produces a coolnefs in tlhe air that is highly invigorating and agreeable" - " There are feldom more than three or four nights, in a funmmer, in which the heat of the air is nearly the fame as in the precedingr clay. After the wvar.iseit days, the evenings are generally agreeable, and oftenl delightful."---Dr. Rul's account of the climate of Penafylvania.




out of Iooo perfons, in the city of Philadelphia, and the town of Salem in Maffachufetts, at eleven -different peri. ods of life. The table for Philadelphia, (No. i.) is con- flruCted from the bills of mortality for the congregations of Chrift-chtirch and St. Peter's in this city, fort twenty- two years; viz. from Chriftmas 1754, to Chrifltnas 1-790, exclufive of fourteen years during that termn. And the table (No. 2.} is formed from the bills for the fame congregations, for the years I782, 1788, 1789 and I790: from which it will appear, that, although one-eighth of the whole number, in the bill for 1782, are ilated to lhave died of the fm-all-pox, the mortality has -been lefs, taking the mediumn of thefe four late years, that the medium of eighteen preceding years gives it.-The table for Salem, in M.affachuffetts, is formed from the bills of mortality, for that town, for the years 1782, 1783. I788 and 1790: But I have before obferved, that the years 1782 anid 1783 were unufually fickly; and this circumfiance has, no doubt, exhibited the probabilities of life too low, for that town; efpecially, as I find the bill for 1i 788 makes the probabilities confiderably higher, than tl-he a-verage of thofe four years. I have alfo given a gen-eral table of the probalbilities of l-ife, at the faiime periods of its duration,-formed from the emti- mates of the Count de Buffon ;-one for the city of Paris, alfo from the eflimates of that celebrated author ;---and, likewife, tables for fundry other cities and places; which I 'havetakemi from thofe fubjoined to Dr. Prices effay on the expe(aations of lives, and adapted to the fame fcale and the fame periods of life, as the others.-Beiides th-efe, I have ftated the proportions dyingY, annually, out of the vwhdle number of the living, in a variety of places ;-and

the t I was favored with tbefe bills by Michael Hillegas, Efq.---The earlieft is from Chrifimas

2 754 to ChrifImas 1 755 ; and the latefI is for the laft year, ending at Chriftmas. Mr. Hil. legas furnifhed me with two others, viz. for the years 17S6 and 1 759; niaking, in the wvhole, twenty-four years: but, as there appears to have been a vetry extraordinary degree of mortality, among children under three years of age, during thofe years,-.-[ left them ouit of my calcula. tions. The bills for twelve other years, between 1755 and 1790, couldnot be obtained.



DURATION OF HUMAN LIFE. SS the proportions of thofe- who die, after compleating the 8oth year of their age, out of iooo annual deaths,---for various cities, towns and countries.---A comparifon of the refults of thefe feveral tables, furnifhes very interefling conclufions, in regard to the fubjea of the foregoing obfervations.

Although, in treating tllis fubjea, I have protraaed my obfervations to a greater lengthb than I had defigned,- I cannot conclude wi-thout remar.king, that the re-fult of this invefligation has afforded me great pleafure. -Muft not the mind of every American citizen be impreffed with gratitude, and glow with emotions of a virtuous pride, when he refleats on the- biefings his country enjoys? Let him contemplate the prefent condition of the United States,-enjoying every advantage which nature can be- flow-inhabited by more than three millions, of the free.- eft people on earth-and poffeffing an extent of territory amply fufficient to maintain, for ages to come, many ad- ditional millions of freemen, which the progreffion of its population is fupplying, witl wonderful celerity;-let him, alfo, contraIt this fituation of his country, with the condition in which it was found by our anceflors, fcarcely two centuries ago;-znd it will be impoffible for him not to experience, in an exalted degree, thofe fenfations, which patriotifm and benevolence ever infpire !-.

I am, Dear Sir,

With great Refpea,t

Your affedionate Nephew,

W. BARTON. Philade1phia, March

J7th, I791.

TABL ES



56 OBSERVATIONS ON TUL TAB LES, fhewing the Probabilities of the Duration of,Human Lifi, from the Birth up to

r;inety years of age---fcr divers intermediate Periods of Life ;---at the City of Philadelphia, and at the Town of Salem in Mlaffachufetts; and alfo in k veral parts of Europe.-

GENERAL Table of the Probabilities of NO. 1. PHILADELrIIIA, for twrnty-two Life, from the Calculations of AL. Bzfon. Years.

Periods of Perfons liv- Decre-aie of Periods of Perfonsliv- Decreafe of Life. ir.g. Life. Life. ing, L ife.

1,000 - 1,000 Between th~e Betweenthe Birthl and 3 v 409 Birth and 3 61 2 388 3 and 5 540 I 3 and 5 sss 57 5and io 490 50 5and io s5I 44 IC and zo 450 40 I0 and o 465 46 2o and 3o 392 58 20 and 3o 368 97 30o nd 40 323 69 3o and 40 270 98 4O and 5o 252 71 40 and S? 178 92 5o and 6o I 80 72 so and 6o 114 64 6o and 70 101 79 6o and 70 35 6z 7o and80 7.63 73.37 7o and 8o 20 - 3 8o and go 3.54 24.09 8o and 90 S.6r 14.39 No. 2. (a) PHILADELPHIA, for 1782, SALEM jin MlaJa7hcbfret5) for 1782,

1788, I789 and 1790. (b) 783, 1789 and 1790.

Periods of Perfonsliv- Decreafe of Periods ot Perfonsliv- De'treale of Life. ing. Life. Life. ing. Life.

1,000 1,000 Betweenthe Betweenthe Birth and 3 6ii 389 Birth and 3 3 and 5 569 42 3 and5 sss 445 5 ando 546 23 S and io SOS S5 Io and 20 497 49 io andz2o 470 35 zo and 30 400 97 2an3 342 Iz8 30 and 40 296 104 30 and 40 252 9o 4o and So s95 101 40and So 16q 83 5& and 60 14. SS and 6o 129 40 60 and 70 z 7.8 60and 70 94 35 7?O?ndl 8o 5 37 7o and 8o 26 68 8o and 9o 6 19 8o0and 9o ( cJ

SALEM (in Mqflacbhctt-r,)_ for 1790,. PARIS, From the Calculations of

(d) M. Buffon. (,) Periods of Perfonsliv- Decreafe of j Periods of PerIons liv- Decreale of

Life. ing. -Life. 'Life, ing. Life.

1I,000 _ _1r . ,000 Between the . Betweenthe Birth and 3 _ _ . Birth and 3

35 and5 550 AS? 3 and5 58o 420 5 and I0 5303 .47 and io 524 56 I0 and 2o 487 I6 0o and -z20 485 19 2o and 30 356 131 2 0and30 433 .5 30 and 40 293 63 30 and 40 -366 67 40 and50 220 73 40 andso 293 73 so and 6o 178 42 5o and 6o 2I2 8r 60apd 70 lIb 52 6oand7o xI6 96 70 nd 80 42 84 7o and 8o 3) 84 go and 90 15.571 26.29 8o and go 4.50 27.5O

LowDox,



DURATION oF HUMAN LIFE. 57 LONDON; from the calculations of LONDON; from the calculations of

M. BiPffon, ( e Ir. Price.

Periods of Perfons liv- Decreafe of Periods of Perfonsliv- Decreale of Life. ing. Life. Life. inn. Life. ~~~~~~~~~~~Lf. _i_ . - . I, f..._

I,030 I,i00o, Between the Betweenthe Birth and 3 . Birth and 3 492 So8 3 and 5 527 4I3 3ands 426 66 S and io 553 34 5 and io 374 52 Io and 2o 522 3r iO and 2o 325 49 20 and 3o 436 86 zo and 30 27 53 3o and 40 .33 104 3O and 40 219 33 40 and 5o 222 110 4O and So 148 714 So and 6o 138 84 So and 6o 97 5I 6o and 7o 72 66 6o and 7o S5 47 7o and 8o as 47 7o and 8o I6 34 80 and go 3.20 21.80 8o andgo 9 14

VTIEN NA. BJ3RSLAW in SILESIA, from the Calcu. lations of Dr. Halley.

Periods of Perfonsliv- Decreafe of Periods of Perfonsliv- Decreale of life. tlog. Life. Life. ing. Life.

1,000 1,000 Betwetnthe Between the Birth and 3 431 569 Birth and 3 760 240 3 and5 3?9 52 3 and 5 710 so S and io 327 52 S and Io 653 57 ioglid. zo 88 39 iO and 2o Q59 6i 20 and3o 247 41 2o and 3Q 523 69 3o and 4o 199 48 3O and 4o 436 87 40 and 50 147 .5 4o and So 335 101 So and 6o 96 51 5o and 6o 232 103 6o and 70 47 49 6o and 70 131 101 70 and 80 15 32 7o and 8O 34 97 8o0 ind go 2 13 8oand go I 33

NORWICH1 G. BRITAIN. NORTHAMPTON, G. BRITAIN.

Periods of Perfonsliv. Decreafe of Periods of Perfons liv. Decreafe of Life. ing. Life. Life. ing. Life.

1,000 1,000o Between the Betweendte Birth and 3 544 456 Birth and 3 585 41S

3 and 5 498 46 3 and 5 544 _4I S and Io 440 58 5 and io 496 48 Io and 2o 394 46 io and2 o 448 48 2o and 3o 341 53 o and 30 379 69 30 tn( zO 290 5I 3O and 40 318 6x 40 and 5o 233 57 4o and 5o 247 71 Sc ard 6o I68 65 So and 6o 177 70 6o and 70 94 74 6o and 70 107 70 7o and 8o 31 63 7 and 8o 40 67 8o and go 4.22 26 78 8o and 9o 3.48 36.52

PARISH

H



OBSERVATIONS ON THE

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DURATION oF HUMAN LIFE. 59 The numbers of thofe who die, after compleating their 8oth year of age-proportioned to

the whole numbers of Annual Deaths;--at the following places, refpeatively; viz.

Names of the Places. | Proportions, out of Iooo Names oftePlcdeaths.

x. Tpfwich-hamlet, Maffachufetts io years, xa8 furiwiw 8o years. 2. Pariffi of Holy-Crofs, Great Britain, 90. 91 3. Hingham, Maffachufetts-54 years, 75. 47 4. Connc&icut-the w,hole ifate, 741 s. Milford, Conne6licut--i z years, 74. 6. Europe, averaged, according to Mr. Kerfseboom, 7r. 7. The Pais de Vaud, in Switzerland, 46. So 8. A country parilh in Brandenburg, 44. 44 9. Northampton, Great Britain, 40. 1o. Ereflaw, accordizig to Dr. Halley, 34 iI. Paris, dedu&ing children fent to the country; M. Buffon, 3r. 84 az. Norwich, Great Britain, 31. .3 According to MI. Buffon's general table, 27. 63

14. Bcrlin, 27. I s. Salem, Maffachufetts-i788, 1790, 26. 16. Philadelphia---I782, 1788, 1789, 1790, 25.

] London---according to M. Bu-fon, See note (j) 24. S6 17. 2 Do. according to Dr. Price, i 6. 46

a8. Edinburgb, do. 4- I9. Vienna, xS.

The proportions which the numbers of annual deaths bear to the whole nunmbers of the living---at the following places, refpeaively; viz.

x. The Iland of Madeira--- I to 50 2. Salem, in MaffIchufetts.-. (f) I to 47 S. Philadelphia--The city and fuburbs, I to 45 4. A country parifh in Brandenburgh, 1 to 45 S. The Pais de Vaud, I to 45 6. IO98 Country parifhes in Germany, I to 43 7. The kingdom of Sweden, 1 to 38. 6o 8. Montbard, in Burgundy-- (g) 1 to 36 *9. France, I to 35 z0. England, I to 3 ix. The parifh of Holy-Crofs, near Shrewfbury, Great Britain, I to 33 1a. Paris. I to 32-. 50 13. The Dukedom of Wurtemberg, I to 32 14. Savanna, in Georgia---(b) I to 3I 70 15. Breflaw, T to a8 i6. Bcrlin, (i) I to 26. 50 17. Northampton, Great Bsitain, i to !26. So 8. SLondon, (j) I to a6

* do. according to Dr. Price, 1 to 20. 75 (Edinburgh--(4) tx to %6

9. . do. according to Dr. Price, i a to lo. 8s ddo. according to Mr. Maitlandt I to 28

2o. Asnflerdain., I to 24 2 1. Rome, I to 23 22. Dublin, I to 22 23. Leeds, in Yorklhire, Great Britain, () I to 21r. 6o

H The



6o OBSERVATIONS ON TIIE

The proportionate numbers of Annual Deaths, to Ioo Annual Births; at the following places, refpedively;-viz.

Names of the Places. TO zooBirthsINO. of Deaths.

x. Salem, in Maffachufetts, for a 782 and 1783-including the flill. born in the number of deaths, To zooBirths. 49. 0o

. Hingham, in Maffachufetts, for S4 years, do. 49. S5 3. Philadelphia---City and fuburbs, do. so. 00 4. TI he kingdom of Pruffia, for 4 years, ending in r7i8, do. 57. 43 5. The Ifland of Madeira, do. S8. 75 6. All the king of Pruffia's dominions in Germany, &c. exclu-

five of Pruffia; 4 years, as above, do. 7 r. oo {. The kingdom of Pruflia, in 1766, do. 72. S? 8, Sweden, for 1774, 1775, 1776 and 1777, do. 72. 86 9. France, from 1754 tO 1763, do. 76. 94 1o. England, do. 80. co XrX City of Brunfwick, in Germany---1 764 and r767, da. 80. 97 za. The Ifland of Corfica, do. 8I. o0 13. Manchefler, in Great Blritain-'- 764, I766, I768, I77r,

and 1777, do 8X. S7 14. Dantzic---x 7r7, 1718, 17z0 and I721, do. 8 7 7 135. Koningiberg--.1766, 1768, do. 87. 49. i6. Duchies of Holficin and Slefwic..1-65, r767, do. 88. 23 17. Whitby, in Yorklhire, Great Britain--'767, I768, 1772

and 1777, do. 88. 45 X8. Norwich, Great Britain-t-s768, 1774 and I777, do. 92. 96 39. Denmark and Norway, in X 764 and I765 ; and'do. includ-

ing the Danifh dominions in Germany, in I 766, do. 93. 17 2o. Paris--I4 years, viz. from I77T to I784.---M. de la Place, do. 97. 6S U. Do.-a zyears, viz. from 1745 to- I766.--M. de Buffon, do. 99. 34 22. City of York and fuburbs, Great Britain--- 768, 1770, do. aoo. 75 23. Paris, 178i, and I782, M. de la Place, do. 101.24 24. Do. according to M. de Buffoni, do. OI. 36 IS Do. according to Dr. Price's ftatement of the numbers

of births and deaths, there, do. It. 57' 26. Copenhagen---I765, I766, 1767, 177r, and 1772, do. IoI. 81 2. City of Freyberg, in Saxony---for a whole century, ending

in 17I7, do. I02. 9z ,8. Paris---from 1764 to I773, bothinclufive, and 177S, 1778,

according to Mr. Anderfon, do. 103. 49 29. Chefter, Great Britain--4 years, do. 407. 42 3o. Liverpool,' Great Britain---S years, do. II2, 70 31. Norwich, Great Britain--3o years, do. X114. 09 32. Breflaw, in Silcela, do. 119.50 33. Vienna, do. 121. 43 34. Copenhagen, do. I122. 2X 35. Northampton, Great Britain, do, 123. 23 36. London---26 years---From the bills of births and deaths,

during that term, do. 124. 92 37. Berlin--s years, ending in 1759, do. 13 I. 00 38. Rome, do. 138. 43 39. Amfterdamn, do. I6q. s6 40. do. from v764 to 1768,both incluflve, and 1771, 1772, do. 171 95



DURATION oF HUMAN LIFE. ft (aJ Out of 198 deaths, in the congregations of ChriIt-church and St. Peter's, from Chrifi-

Pnaas I 78I to Cliriftmas 1 78z,---24 died of the fmall pox, 2i of purging and vomiting, and 27 of fits and convulfions. 'the average nuniber of deaths, in the Iamiie congregations---during the years 1788, 1789 and 179----is only 145; and not quite 145. 7-8, during the 22 years, fromn which the table for Philadelphia N0. i is formed--The deaths, therefore, in I 782, exceed. ed the average number of thofe for the z2 years, in the proportion of 136 to loo: and, confequently, the year 1782 was unufally fickly in Philadelphia, as well as at Salem in Maffachu- fetts. In the year 1789, alfo (viz. from Chritlmas 1 788 to Chriftmas 1789,) out of I64 per- foni, who died in the congregations of Chriil-church and St. Peter's, 20 died( of the meafles. From thle& circumftatnces, it is reaf'asnole to fuppofe--that even thefecondtable for Philadelphia gives the probabilities of life too low, for this city; becaufe, out of the four years above mentioned, one was more fickly than common; and, during another, near one eighth of the deaths fronm which that table is fornied, were occafioned by a difordernot annually e)ideinic.----In the year 1782, there died between the age of 8o and 90 years, out of 198,---3 perfons; in 1788, out of 1z6,---i; in i 789, out of I(64,----3; and in 1790, out of 145,--S; being, in tile whole, IX out of 633: and this gives the proportioni of 6perfons, out of 1oo0, attaining to 90 years of age.

(b) The mneafles having been very mortal at Salem, in 1783,---that year has. been omit- ted, in calcu'ating the proportion of deaths, for the.firit twenty ycArs of the ages.

(c) lhe number of deaths at Salem, exclufive of the fill-born, during the years s 782, 1783, 1789---averaged z67- perannium; and the numberofthofe who died between 8oand go years of age, duriQg the fame term, averaged 4 per annum---This gives the proportion o; thofe dying, between the 8oth and 9oth year of life, in that town, as 23. 88 out of 1ooo deaths. rhe biils for I 782 and 1 783 do not notice any deaths, after 9o years of age, and this is alfo the: raf,, with the bill fQr 178) : but, in the two former, the lifts of ages comprehendl 356 deaths of " avfs unkno-wn," and, in the year 1790, thrce furvived 90 years of. age.- See the tabUle for Satem, for the year I790.

(d) Out of i91 deaths, from which this table is found, two were between the age of 90 and ioo years, and I at 103 years.

(e) According to M. Buffon, the proportion of deaths, at Paris, in the -two firft years of life, is 313, 21 out of aooo; -and, at London, 334. 59, out of io00. The number of deaths, he obferves, is greater at Paris than in London, from two years of age to five ; lefs at Paris than at London, between 5 and 30 years; pretty nearly equal, in both cities, between So and 6o ; and much greater at Paris than at Lonidon, from the 6oth year of age to the enid of life --This fhews, continues M. Buffoni; that old age is, in general, much lefs in London than in Paris: for, ouit of iooo perfons, 21 2 died after compleating their 6oth year, at Paris; whereas, only 038, out.of i00o, died after that age, at London.--The continual fupply of people, mofily from about twenty years of age and upwards, which great cities draw fromn the country, gives tlhe

proportion of thofe who die at old age, in fuch cities, much higher than the. number of thofe born in them would givst. Hence the favorable appearance,. with refpedt to longevity, which many grcat cities exhibit, is cxtremely fallacious: and this obfervation is particularly applica- hle to London, where the cotntinual diminution of the number of its inhabitants, occafiolned by the great excefs of deaths beyond the births, renders fuch fupplies neceffary, to fupport. its po- pub;ltnon. .

(pf) The o

fill born are included, in the number of deaths. ig) This town contains, accordinig to M. de Buffon, 2337 inhabitants. (b) From the ift of July, 1790, to the Ift of July, 1791, the number of deaths at Savan-

na, was in the proportion of one out of every 3I 7-10 of the total number of white inhabitanits (exelutive of Mariners and Sojourners) in that city. It appears by the cenfus, that, in Janer- ary 1 7 9 I, Savanna contained 1 7 1 X white inhabitants.-

(i) Berlin contains, according to Dr. Price, 134,000 inhabitants. (j) Dr. Price fuppofes the proportion of annual deaths to the whole number of the living in

Edinburgh, to be nearly the lame as in London ---I have therefore given the proportion of one to twenty-fix, for both cities; aiid my reafons for affuming this proportion ---which differs confiderably from that ftated by Dr. Price---will appear, in the courfe of the foregoing obfervations.---

(k) BytheLondon Bill of Mortality, made up fromthe t6th of Dec..1788, to the isth Dec. 1789, itappears---that, in the I23 parifhes in London and Weftminfter, and the 23

Out-parijes in Middlefex and Surry, 20,749 perfons were buried within the year. Of this number, thofe who died after compleating the feveral periods of age, after mezitioned, give the following proportions, viz.

(l} This town contained, in the year I 770,---16,380 inhabitants Out



62 OBSERVATIONS ON TIIZ

Out of l,ooo deaths, there died---upwards of IOo years of age. 0. 48 Do. go 3. 66 Do. 8o 13. 66 Do. 70 76. 34 Do. 6b I46. 46 Do. so 227. 72 Do. 40 31?. 95

Thefe proportions correfpond fo nearly with thofe given by M. Buffon, in his effirrate of the probabilitie3of life, for London, as to induce a belief, that the calculations of that celebrated Philofopher may be depended upon, in this infiance.

N0. VIIIL

,Extraj of a Letter from Andrew Ellicott, to DAVID RITTENHOUSE, Ejf.datedat Pittjburg, November Sth3 I 737, containing obfer?vations made at Lake-Erie.

Read Nov. N the thirteenth of laft month, while we lay 21, 1788 7 on the banks of Lake-Erie, we had an opportunity of viewing that fingular phenomenon, by Sea-. men termed looming. It was preceded by a fine Auro-. ra-borealis, on the evening of the I 2th.- the i3th was cloudy; but without rain: about ten o'clock in the morning, as I was walking on the beach, I difcovered fome-. .thing that had the appearance of land, in the direEaion of Prefque-Ifle; about noon it became more confpicuous and; when vieweft by a good Achromatic-Telefcope, the branches of the trees could be plainly difcovered---From 3 o'clock in the afternoon, till dark, the whole Peninfula was confiderably elevated above the horizon, and viewed by all our company with admiration.--There was a fingular appearance attending this Phenomenon, which I do not remember to have feen taken notice of by any writer- The Peninfula was frequently feen double, or rather two fimilar Peninfula's, one above the other, with an appear. ance of water between-:-the feparation, and coincidence was very frequent, and not unlike that obferved in fiifting the index of an adjufted Godfrey's quadrant.---As fingu_.

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observations on the probabilities of the duration of human life, and the progress of population, in...

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