occidental petroleum corporation · 2015. 7. 31. · second quarter 2015 earnings conference call...
TRANSCRIPT
OCCIDENTAL PETROLEUM CORPORATION
Second Quarter 2015 Earnings Conference CallJuly 30, 2015
2
Cautionary Statements
Forward-Looking Statements
Portions of this presentation contain forward-looking statements and involve risks and uncertainties that could materially affect expected results of operations, liquidity, cash flows and business prospects. Actual results may differ from anticipated results, sometimes materially, and reported results should not be considered an indication of future performance. Factors that could cause results to differ include, but are not limited to: global commodity pricing fluctuations; supply and demand considerations for Occidental's products; higher-than-expected costs; the regulatory approval environment; reorganization or restructuring of Occidental's operations, not successfully completing, or any material delay of, field developments, expansion projects, capital expenditures, efficiency projects, acquisitions or dispositions; lower-than-expected production from development projects or acquisitions; exploration risks; general economic slowdowns domestically or internationally; political conditions and events; liability under environmental regulations including remedial actions; litigation; disruption or interruption of production or manufacturing or facility damage due to accidents, chemical releases, labor unrest, weather, natural disasters, cyber attacks or insurgent activity; failure of risk management; changes in law or regulations; or changes in tax rates. Words such as “estimate,” “project,” “predict,” “will,” “would,” “should,” “could,” “may,” “might,” “anticipate,” “plan,” “intend,” “believe,” “expect,” “aim,” “goal,” “target,” “objective,” “likely” or similar expressions that convey the prospective nature of events or outcomes generally indicate forward-looking statements. You should not place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements, which speak only as of the date of this presentation. Unless legally required, Occidental does not undertake any obligation to update any forward looking statements, as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. Material risks that may affect Occidental’s results of operations and financial position appear in Part I, Item 1A “Risk Factors” of the 2014 Form 10-K.
Use of non-GAAP Financial Information
This presentation includes non-GAAP financial measures. You can find the reconciliations to comparable GAAP financial measures on the “Investors” section of our website.
Second Quarter 2015 Earnings2015 Objectives
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CASH FLOW GROWTHCASH FLOW GROWTH
COST SAVINGSCOST SAVINGS
Permian Resources production growth
Al Hosn project start-up
Commodity price recovery
~$450 million of captured cost savings year-to-date
Capital savings re-deployed into additional activity in Permian Basin
~$250 million reduction in capital spending from 1Q 2015
Operating Cash Flow to cover dividend outlays and growth capital program at ~$60/bblrealized oil prices
• Oil production growth driven by
– Focused development program in Permian Resources
– Strong production in Oman and Colombia
– Resilient domestic base production
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Second Quarter 2015 EarningsProduction Growth
369372
382
401
426433
1Q 2014 2Q 2014 3Q 2014 4Q 2014 1Q 2015 2Q 2015
Total Oil Production(MBOD)
Second Quarter 2015 Earnings Permian Resources Production Growth
5
35 4362 71
2013 2014 1Q15 2Q15 2H15E
Production (MBOED)
Oil NGL Gas• Total production grew 51% year-
over-year to 109 MBOED.
– Oil production grew 78% year-over-year to 71 MBOD.
• Total production expected to grow at a ~30% annual growth rate through 2015.
– Oil production is expected to continue to grow at rates higher than total production as we focus on drilling oil projects.
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• Al Hosn is a large, world-scale project and the first of its kind. We expected to undergo some growing pains as it ramped up to full production.
• In 2Q15, Al Hosn produced 18,000 BOED and sold its first shipment of sulfur.
• Due to mechanical challenges in the sulfur recovery units, the plant was limited to 50% of capacity for most of the quarter and production was curtailed for most of the month of April.
• A repair plan is underway to stabilize the sulfur recovery units and we expect production to continue to grow through the second half of the year.
• The plant is currently producing at ~50,000 BOED and we expect it to contribute ~35,000 BOED for the 3rd quarter.
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Second Quarter 2015 EarningsAl Hosn Update
591591
FY2013 FY2014 PermianGrowth
Al Hosn& Other Int'l
2015 ProductionOutlook
• U.S. oil production grew 15% year over year*• Increased Permian Resources production guidance to 117 MBOED in 2H 2015• Al Hosn expected to average 35 MBOED in 3Q15 and 30 MBOED for FY 2015• In the United States, we expect oil production growth of at least 12%, partially offset
by declines in NGLs and natural gas production• Expect FY 2015 production to grow by 70 – 80 MBOED
Company-wide Oil & Gas Production (MBOED)
7
Second Quarter 2015 Earnings2015 Production Growth
660 – 670
~35
* Excludes Hugoton oil production
35 – 45
• Construction on the Ingleside ethylene cracker is ahead of schedule and on budget
– ~1,300 workers on site– 86% of equipment on site– 32% of total construction is
complete
• Expect to be at 70%+ of total project capital spent by year end 2015
• Facilities to become commercially operational in early 2017
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Second Quarter 2015 EarningsEthylene Cracker Update
• As we capture price savings from suppliers and improve efficiencies, we are able to do more with less spending.
• Capital spending declined by ~$250 million and will decline through the year.
• Given our large acreage position and deep inventory, we have the flexibility to defer drilling and appraisal activity.
• We expect to exit 2015 at a quarterly spending rate of $1.0 to $1.2 billion. If oil prices remain at current levels, ~$50/bbl, our 2016 capital will be less than both the 2015 full year and the fourth quarter run rate.
• We expect that going forward our operating cash flow will cover capital expenditures and dividend payments, assuming $60 per barrel oil price realizations.
2015 Capital Budget and Domestic Drilling Rigs
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Second Quarter 2015 Earnings2015 Capital Program Evolution
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
1Q15 2Q15 3Q15E 4Q15E
CapitalBudgetDomesticDrilling Rigs
Note: 1Q15 is the baseline index; subsequent quarters are a % of 1Q15
• We have ~64 million shares remaining under our current authorization.
• At current levels, we would view the stock as attractive for repurchases.
Second Quarter 2015 EarningsCash Flow Priorities and Share Repurchases
10
Shares Outstanding (mm) 3/31/2015 6/30/2015Weighted Average – Basic 769.6 766.4
Weighted Average – Diluted 769.6 766.6
Basic Shares Outstanding 767.6 763.0
• Domestic oil production (Bbl/d)
• Total company production (BOED)
• Core earnings**
• Core diluted EPS**
• 2015 CFFO from Continuing Ops
• 2015 CFFO before Working Capital
• Cash balance @ 6/30/2015
• 2Q15 Shares repurchased
Results205,000
15% year / year growth*
658,000
$165 million
$0.21
$1,377 million
$2,638 million
$5.1 billion
4.8 million
Second Quarter 2015 EarningsHighlights
11*Excludes California and Hugoton operations. **See Significant Items Affecting Earnings in the Earnings Release Attachments.
Second Quarter 2015 EarningsOil & Gas Segment Pre-Tax Core Earnings
2Q15 vs. 1Q15($ in millions)
Core Results• 2Q15 $324 mm• 1Q15 $57 mm• 2Q14 $1.7 B
PRE-TAX
12
57
21728
30 (8) 324
1Q15 Sales Price Sales Volumes Lower OperatingExpenses
All Others 2Q15
645
112
4 658(4)
1Q15 Permian Other Domestic Colombia MENA 2Q15
Second Quarter 2015 EarningsOil and Gas Total Company Production
Company-wide Oil & Gas Production (MBOED)
Total company oil and gas production volumes averaged 658,000 BOED, an increase of 13,000 BOE in daily production from 1Q 2015.
13
308
326
7 0 333
2Q14 1Q15 Oil Natural Gas &NGLs
2Q15
Second Quarter 2015 EarningsOil and Gas Domestic Production
Domestic Oil & Gas Production (MBOED)
Exceeded our domestic oil production growth guidance with a year over year increase of 26,000 BOD or about 15% led by our Permian Resources assets.
14Note: Excludes California and Hugoton Operations
WorldwideOil ($/bbl)
WorldwideNGLs ($/bbl)
Domestic Nat.Gas ($/mmbtu) WTI NYMEXBrent
Realized Prices Benchmark Prices
2Q15 $54.55 $18.06 2.09 $57.94 $63.50 $2.73
WTI % 94% 31% 77%*
Brent % 86% 28%
1Q15 $48.50 $17.96 $2.49 $48.63 $55.17 $3.07WTI % 100% 37% 81%*Brent % 88% 33%
2Q14 $99.30 $40.98 $4.15 $102.99 $109.77 $4.55
WTI % 96% 40% 91%*Brent % 90% 37%
Price Sensitivity Pre-tax Income Impact (Quarter)
Oil +/- $1/bbl = +/- $30 mm
NGL +/- $1/bbl = +/- $7 mm
U.S. Nat Gas +/- $0.10/mmbtu = +/- $3 mm
15
Second Quarter 2015 Earnings Oil & Gas Realized Prices
* As a % of NYMEX
Production Costs ($ / BOE)
• 2Q15 Exploration expense was $10 million
Taxes other than on Income ($ / BOE)
DD&A ($ / BOE)
Second Quarter 2015 EarningsOil & Gas Operating Costs
16Note: Excludes California
1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 FY 2014 1Q15 2Q15Total $12.94 $13.34 $13.45 $14.18 $13.50 $13.36 $12.10U.S. $13.67 $14.63 $14.89 $14.94 $14.54 $14.46 $13.04
1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 FY 2014 1Q15 2Q15Total $16.12 $16.64 $16.90 $18.09 $16.97 $15.35 $16.06U.S. $17.46 $18.13 $18.63 $18.81 $18.26 $17.12 $17.82
1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 FY 2014 1Q15 2Q15Total $2.83 $2.66 $2.42 $1.96 $2.45 $1.63 $1.85
139 2
16 (20)
(1) 136
1Q15 Sales Price Sales Volume / Mix Operations /Manufacturing *
All Others 2Q15
Second Quarter 2015 EarningsChemical Segment Core Earnings
2Q15 vs. 1Q15($ in millions) Guidance
3Q15 expected to be ~$140 mm.Core Results
• 2Q15 $136 mm• 1Q15 $139 mm• 2Q14 $133 mm
PRE-TAX
17* Impact of unscheduled plant outages at La Porte and Ingleside
(5)
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59 1 84
1Q15 Pipelines Marketing Gas Plants 2Q15
2Q15 vs. 1Q15($ in millions)
Core Results• 2Q15 $84 mm• 1Q15 ($5) mm• 2Q14 $130 mm
PRE-TAX
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Second Quarter 2015 Earnings- Midstream & Marketing Segment Core Earnings
BeginningCash Balance
12/31/14
CFFO BeforeWorkingCapital
Change inWorkingCapital &Capital
Accruals
CapitalExpenditures
Dividends ShareRepurchases
Acquisitions& Other
Debt Issuance Ending CashBalance6/30/15
1H 2015($ in millions)
$5,100
$2,600
$7,800
1H15LT Debt / Capital 17%
($100)
19* Note: Annualized and excluding the impact of non-core adjustments; See GAAP reconciliation at www.oxy.com/investors
Second Quarter 2015 Earnings1H 2015 Cash Flow
($3,200)
Restricted Cash
$4,000 Restricted
Cash$2,400
($1,900)
($1,100)
($500)$1,500
• Total company capital expenditures for the 2Q15 were $1.5 billion and we expect our quarterly expenditures to continue to ramp down through the year.
• Oil and Gas spent $2.7 billion during 1H15, with Permian Resources expenditures comprising 47% of the total, and the remaining $500 million split between Chemicals and Midstream.
• Growth in operating cash flow should help us achieve our goal of being cash flow neutral after capital expenditures and dividends at ~$60 realized oil prices
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Second Quarter 2015 EarningsCapital Program
1Q15A 2Q15A 3Q15E 4Q15E
Permian Resources
Remaining Oil & Gas
Midstream & Chemicals
$1.7 bn
2015 Capital Budget
Midstream & Chemicals
Permian Resources
Remaining Oil & Gas
~$1.5 bn
• 3Q15 US Production Outlook
– Expect production from our Permian Resources operations to grow by ~5% sequentially on a BOE basis, including 5,000 barrels a day of oil growth
– Growth in the Permian should be roughly offset by declines in our Mid-Continent & other production.
– 3Q15 domestic production flat with 2Q15
• 3Q15 International Production Outlook
– Expect volumes to increase in 3Q15 by ~10,000 BOED
– Production rates at Al Hosn should continue to improve, increasing to ~35,000 BOED in 3Q15
– Increase from Al Hosn should be partially offset by ~8,000 BOED of lower volumes in Colombia due to pipeline disruptions experienced during July
• FY15 Total Production Outlook
– Assuming no meaningful disruptions during 2H15, we are raising the lower end of our FY2015 production guidance range from 650,000 to 660,000 BOED. Our current estimate of FY2015 volumes of 660,000 to 670,000 BOED will provide year-over-year growth of 12% to 13%.
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Second Quarter 2015 Earnings3Q15 Production Outlook
Oil & Gas Segment • 2015 total production is expected to be
between 660,000 – 670,000 BOED.
• 2015 domestic oil production growth of at least 12%
• Permian Resources 3Q15 oil growth of 5,000 BOD, offset by Midcontinent declines
• Domestic 3Q15 Production flat
• International 3Q15 Production
– Al Hosn Gas Project volumes expected to be ~35,000 BOED.
– Colombia production expected to decrease by 8,000 BOD due to pipeline disruptions.
• Exploration expense: $20 mm in 3Q15.
Price Sensitivity Pre-tax Income Impact (Quarter)
Oil +/- $1/bbl = +/- $30 mm
NGL +/- $1/bbl = +/- $7 mm
U.S. Nat Gas +/- $0.10/mcf = +/- $3 mm
DD&A – FY 2015• Oil & Gas: ~$15.50/BOE• Chemicals and Midstream: $625 mm
Chemical Segment• ~$140 mm pre-tax income in 3Q15.
Corporate• FY 2015 Domestic tax rate: 36% • FY 2015 Int'l tax rate: 65%• Interest expense of $50 mm in 3Q15
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Second Quarter 2015 Earnings3Q15 & FY 2015 Guidance Summary
Second Quarter 2015 Earnings Permian Resources – Production Growth
23
34 4362 71
2013 2014 1Q15 2Q15 2H15E
Production (MBOED)
Oil NGL Gas• Total production grew 51% year-
over-year to 109 MBOED.
– Oil production grew 78% year-over-year to 71 MBOD.
• Total production expected to grow at a ~30% annual growth rate through 2015.
– Oil production is expected to continue to grow at rates higher than total production as we focus on drilling oil projects.
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020406080
100120140
2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15E 4Q15EDrilled 87 75 85 86 47 51 53Online 59 71 73 126 71 53 54
Wel
l Cou
nt
Second Quarter 2015 EarningsPermian Resources – Activity Summary
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• Completed transition to horizontal development program and worked through our inventory of wells awaiting completion.
• Expect to complete ~100 horizontal wells in 2H 2015
42 Hz
44 Hz56 Hz 61 Hz
23 Hz36 Hz 47 Hz
67 Hz
53 Hz
42 Hz 49 Hz 48 Hz 52 Hz50 Hz
$40-$50 $50-$60 $60-$70 $70-$80 >$80
Avalon
Delaware
Bone Spring
Spraberry
Wolfcamp D
Wolfcamp C
Wolfcamp B
Wolfcamp A
• Updated hydrocarbon richness maps, petrophysical and geochemical models using vast database of data from:
− 9,900 square miles of 3D seismic
− Production information, well logs, drill cuttings and cores from:
• 24,000 Oxy operated wells
• 4,400 outside operated wells
25
(## yrs) represents drilling inventory of years at 2015E activity levels
Second Quarter 2015 EarningsPermian Resources – Drilling InventoryLowering economic hurdle points through reservoir characterization and optimization, improved productivity and faster time to market
Drilling InventoryBased on Q4 Costs
Better Well Productivity and
Lower Cost
15% (~7 yrs)
37%(~16 yrs)
61%(~27 yrs)
81%(~ 36 yrs)
100%(~44 yrs)
• Faster drilling
• Less idle time
• More frac stages per day
• Integrated planning
• Infrastructure investments in water handling, storage, gathering and takeaway
• Step change in capital efficiency is allowing for increased activity with fewer drilling rigs and structural long-term cost reductions
(# o
f Day
s)
26
Second Quarter 2015 EarningsPermian Resources – Improved Time to Market
2014 2015 YTD TARGET
Drilling Completion Hook-Up
27
Second Quarter 2015 EarningsPermian Resources – Drilling Efficiency
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,0000 10 20 30 40 50
Depth
Days
15.3 days Best Well
22.4 days June Avg
44.3 days January Avg
January average = 44.3 days
June average = 22.4 days
Improvement = 21.9 days
~50% days reduction
~40% cost reduction
Savings = $ 2.1 mm Technology DaysMulti-well pad, reduced move time 1.8
High-resolution benchmarking 1.5
Advanced mud system to eliminatecasing across salt interval 5.1
Oxy Drilling Dynamics 8.5
Curve building optimization 1.2
Vibration reduction to eliminate downhole tool failures 1.7
Rig site crew efficiency 2.1
Total Days Reduction 21.9
Delaware Basin Wolfcamp A well drilling time reduced by ~50% and costs by ~40%
$5.3 $3.2 $2.8
$5.6
$3.6 $3.4
$-
$2.0
$4.0
$6.0
$8.0
$10.0
$12.0
2014 Current Target
Gro
ss W
ell C
ost $
MM
WELL COSTDelaware Wolfcamp A, 4,500’ HZ
Drilling Completions
43
37
20
15
- 5
10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
2014 1Q15 2Q15 Best
Rig Release to Rig Release
DRILL DAYSDelaware Wolfcamp A, 4,500’ HZ
Second Quarter Earnings 2015Permian Resources – Well Cost Reductions
Move to Manufacturing Mode Significantly Reduced Well Cost
$10.9
$6.8$6.2
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Appraisal
A
Avalon
Brushy Canyon
Cherry Canyon
Bell Canyon
Delaware Basin Benches
1st Bone Spring
2nd Bone Spring
3rd Bone Spring
B
Development
C
D
Wol
fcam
p
Drilling Locations by Bench Gross Wells
Bone Spring 1st, 2nd and 3rd 2,300
Wolfcamp A / B / C 800 / 800 / 700
Other 900
Vertical 150
Total 5,700
Horizontal Development Ready 2,000
Net WI Wells 4,100
OXY Focus Acreage
• Majority of Wolfcamp locations are in our operated areas of Reeves County.
• Current Bone Spring locations are located primarily in New Mexico.
• Wolfcamp A/B and 2nd Bone Spring are in development mode
• Additional benches currently in appraisal mode are the 1st and 3rd
Bone Spring, Wolfcamp C/D, and Brushy Canyon.
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Second Quarter 2015 Earnings Permian Resources – Delaware Basin
Delaware Basin
Well Performance: Texas Delaware – Wolfcamp A
510378
514319
Boepd / 1000’
OXY Focus Acreage
• Horizontal wells completed in this area believed to be among most prolific in Permian Basin to date
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Second Quarter Earnings 2015Permian Resources – Delaware Basin
305222
274210
289225
70% Oil
71% Oil
$3.7 $2.3 $2.2
$5.5
$4.2 $4.0
$-
$2.0
$4.0
$6.0
$8.0
$10.0
2014 Current Target
Gro
ss W
ell C
ost $
MM
WELL COSTEast MidlandWolfcamp A 7,500’ HZ
Drilling Completions
Second Quarter Earnings 2015Permian Resources – Well Cost Reductions
Move to Manufacturing Mode Significantly Reduced Well Cost
$9.2
$6.5$6.2
46
31
20 16
- 5
10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
2014 1Q15 2Q15 Best
Rig Release to Rig Release
DRILL DAYSEast MidlandWolfcamp A 7,500’ HZ
31
AppraisalDevelopment Exploration
Drilling Locations by Bench Gross Wells
Spraberry 1,100
Wolfcamp A / B / C / D 550 / 350 / 250 / 600
Other 250
Total 3,100
Horizontal Development Ready 2,200
Net WI Wells 2,800
OXY Focus Acreage
• Majority of Wolfcamp locations are in our operated areas of Martin, Midland, Howard and Glasscock Counties.
• Wolfcamp A & B and Spraberry are in development mode.
• Additional benches currently in appraisal mode are the Clearfork and Wolfcamp C & D.
Midland Basin Benches
D / CLINE
CBA
Lower SpraberryMiddle SpraberryUpper Spraberry
Clear Fork
EllenburgerSimpson
Mississippian LimeBarnett Shale
Montoya
Wol
fcam
p
San AndresGrayburg
Yates
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Second Quarter 2015 EarningsPermian Resources – Midland Basin
Midland Basin
Well Performance: Wolfcamp A
Boepd / 1000’
OXY Focus Acreage
• Multiple fields in East Midland with highly economic Wolfcamp potential
− Merchant area continues to show encouraging results in Wolfcamp A, B, and C Benches
− Recently acquired acreage, primarily in Howard County, includes several very high performers
in the Wolfcamp A
244167
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Second Quarter Earnings 2015Permian Resources – East Midland Basin
175143
154127
86% Oil
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Second Quarter 2015 EarningsPermian EOR
• Stable and low-decline base production at an advantaged cost
• Permian EOR business remains profitable in the current downturn
• EOR business is expected to generate free cash flow this year in the current oil price environment.
CO2 Supply & Processing
35
Second Quarter 2015 Earnings Permian EOR – Operating EfficiencyContinue to drive capital and operating cost lower by enhancing operability and productivity
$1.5
$1.4
$1.2
$1.0
$0.50
$0.70
$0.90
$1.10
$1.30
$1.50
$1.70
Q3 2014 Q4 2014 Q1 2015 Q2 2015
San Andres New DrillAverage Gross Cost, $MM
58
4845
20
30
40
50
60
Q4 2014 Q1 2015 Q2 2015
Downhole Maintenance Average Hours Per Job
36
Second Quarter 2015 EarningsPermian – Investment in Human Capital
• Finished construction on new training center in Midland and will open in September
• Given current low product prices, have deployed engineers into the field to replace contract employees
– Improved drilling times
– Improved base production
– Valuable on the ground training and experience
New Midland Training Center
Second Quarter Earnings 2015Permian Summary
• Continue to execute focused development strategy in Permian Resources
− Operate average of ~12 rigs in 2H 2015
− Expect to drill ~100 horizontal wells in 2H 2015
• EOR business is expected to generate free cash flow this year even in the current oil price environment
• Oxy is well positioned to meet the challenges of lower prices and to grow cash flows.
37
147 147 145 145 145
2013 2014 1Q15 2Q15 2H15EProduction (MBOED)
EOR Resources
64 75 98 109 117
211 222243 254 262
SECOND QUARTER 2015 EARNINGS CONFERENCE CALL Q&A