oct 2016 dairy situation and outlook oct 2016_dairy situation and... · 10/25/2016 15 international...
TRANSCRIPT
10/25/2016
1
Dairy Situation and Outlook
October 25, 2016
10/25/2016
2
10/25/2016
3
10/25/2016
4
10/25/2016
5
10/25/2016
6
Top States by Production
1
2
3
4
5
10/25/2016
7
10/25/2016
8
10/25/2016
9
10/25/2016
10
10/25/2016
11
10/25/2016
12
10/25/2016
13
Global Dairy Trade Auction, Oct 18
10/25/2016
14
10/25/2016
15
International Milk Price Recovery
• Increasing world demand for cheese and butter
• Import growth in China, Philipines, Mexico and Russia
• Decline in EU, Argentina, and Australia milk production
10/25/2016
16
10/25/2016
17
Michigan Basis
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
26
$/cwt
Mailbox Class III
10/25/2016
18
Average margin for 2017= $9.62/cwt
10/25/2016
19
2017 Outlook
• Bullish
– Chinese milk powder purchases up
– Strong butter and cheese consumption world‐wide
– Milk production moderating in major countries
• Bearish
– Large stocks world‐wide, particularly powders
– US milk production in 2016 forecasted at +1.7%