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Fuel Retailing 2020 : Innovation Leaders & Game Changers in Policy, Technology & Business Models October 15-16, 2012 – New Delhi Perspectives on Knowledge Partner Innovations and Game Changers in Fuel Retailing Supported by

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Page 1: October 15-16, 2012 – New Delhificci.in/spdocument/20290/Petrotech-Knowldege-Paper-2012.pdf · Fuel Retailing 2020 : Innovation Leaders & Game Changers in Policy, Technology & Business

Fuel Retailing 2020 : Innovation Leaders & Game

Changers in Policy, Technology & Business Models

October 15-16, 2012 – New Delhi

Perspectives on

Knowledge PartnerInnovations and Game Changers in Fuel Retailing

Supported by

Page 2: October 15-16, 2012 – New Delhificci.in/spdocument/20290/Petrotech-Knowldege-Paper-2012.pdf · Fuel Retailing 2020 : Innovation Leaders & Game Changers in Policy, Technology & Business
Page 3: October 15-16, 2012 – New Delhificci.in/spdocument/20290/Petrotech-Knowldege-Paper-2012.pdf · Fuel Retailing 2020 : Innovation Leaders & Game Changers in Policy, Technology & Business

Fuel Retailing 2020 : Innovation Leaders & Game

Changers in Policy, Technology & Business Models

October 15-16, 2012 – New Delhi

Supported by

Perspectives on Knowledge Partner

Innovations and Game Changers in Fuel Retailing

Page 4: October 15-16, 2012 – New Delhificci.in/spdocument/20290/Petrotech-Knowldege-Paper-2012.pdf · Fuel Retailing 2020 : Innovation Leaders & Game Changers in Policy, Technology & Business
Page 5: October 15-16, 2012 – New Delhificci.in/spdocument/20290/Petrotech-Knowldege-Paper-2012.pdf · Fuel Retailing 2020 : Innovation Leaders & Game Changers in Policy, Technology & Business

While Fuel Retailing continues to grow in India, three ‘game changer’ trends can majorly reshape the sector in next 5-7 years

1| Innovations & Game Changers in Fuel Retailing

Source: Booz & Company analysis

Personal and commercial mobility continue to grow

• Key drivers are economic growth, increasing urbanization and relatively slow development of public transport infrastructure

Total vehicles on road expected to grow by 9%, over the next 10 years•

• Retail fuel demand (mostly liquid fuels) expected to grow at 7% per annum

India’s import dependence for crude is already at 75%, will go upto 80-85% by 2020

Continued access to imported crude and pricing under recoveries (existing pricing regime) pose significant threat to national energy security/sufficiency

• Currently focused on volume enhancement and network expansion with limited control over pricing/margins and return on asset

Mainly liquid fuel based with alternative fuels (e.g. CNG) at early stage

Innovative formats (e.g. unmanned, hypermarkets, integrated retail) yet to be introduced

• Three major drivers of change anticipated

• Market based pricing of fuels

• Stricter emissions and efficiency norms

• Growth of alternative fuels and electric mobility

Demand for retail fuels to grow, increasing pressure

on energy security

Indian Fuel Retail industry lags in maturity

Next 5-10 years may see some game changers in

Fuel Retailing

Page 6: October 15-16, 2012 – New Delhificci.in/spdocument/20290/Petrotech-Knowldege-Paper-2012.pdf · Fuel Retailing 2020 : Innovation Leaders & Game Changers in Policy, Technology & Business

These game changers will require Fuel Retailers to develop new capabilities, adopt new technologies and forge partnerships

2| Innovations & Game Changers in Fuel Retailing

Source: Booz & Company analysis

Winning in the future will require a different set of capabilities and

partnerships

• Moving forward, Indian fuel retail sector will experience certain game changers which may fundamentally reshape the fuel retail market landscape

To stay competitive fuel retailers need to develop a distinct set of capabilities - wider fuel offering, new capabilities, technology, proactive customer relationship, partnerships/collaborations etc.

• Fuel retailers will need to develop capabilities in dynamic pricing, margin and ROA management and differentiation/branding

Optimising end to end margin across supply chain (e.g. Refining and Marketing)

Prepare for entry of non traditional competitors and greater technology investments

• Fuel retailers need to develop differentiated products through collaboration with Auto OEMs

Innovative marketing and awareness campaigns, should be used for promoting premium products and to educate the customer about the need for fuel efficiency & lower emissions

Comprehensive sustainability strategy should be adopted focusing on carbon footprint management, green regulations & business models etc.

• Fuel retailers can retail CNG as part of multi-fuel outlets in urban areas given real estate constraints

Retailing of LNG as a fuel can be adopted for trucks along coastal freight corridors

Fuel retailers can get involved in EV infrastructure bearing in mind that optimal EV infrastructure deployment requires planning at city level to identify right grade and mix of charging stations

Need to develop capabilities in dynamic pricing, branding

and technology

Need to collaborate with Auto industry and enhance

consumer awareness

Need to offer a wider range of fuels including

CNG and electric

Page 7: October 15-16, 2012 – New Delhificci.in/spdocument/20290/Petrotech-Knowldege-Paper-2012.pdf · Fuel Retailing 2020 : Innovation Leaders & Game Changers in Policy, Technology & Business

Current ScenarioIndia Fuel Retail Sector

Page 8: October 15-16, 2012 – New Delhificci.in/spdocument/20290/Petrotech-Knowldege-Paper-2012.pdf · Fuel Retailing 2020 : Innovation Leaders & Game Changers in Policy, Technology & Business

The Indian economy is expected to continue steady long term growth, accompanied by increasing urbanization

4| Innovations & Game Changers in Fuel Retailing

India Nominal GDPUSD Bn

1

550

1,000

325

160

2020 -21E

6,750

4,500

1,250

2015 -16E

3,270

2,100

620

2010 -11

1,715

1,080

310

2005 -06

840

510170

ServicesIndustryAgriculture

370330

475420

1,385

2020 -21E2010 -11

910

2015 -16E

1,310

890

1,225

855

2005 -06

1,140

810

Urban Population Non-Urban Population

13%

14%

16%

CAGR

1) All values approximated to nearest multiple of 5

Source: Booz & Company analysis

India Urban PopulationMn People

1

Page 9: October 15-16, 2012 – New Delhificci.in/spdocument/20290/Petrotech-Knowldege-Paper-2012.pdf · Fuel Retailing 2020 : Innovation Leaders & Game Changers in Policy, Technology & Business

Mobility requirements will also continue to increase due to this growth, leading to higher demand for liquid fuels

5 | Innovations & Game Changers in Fuel Retailing

*Vehicle Parc refers to the total vehicle population

1) All values approximated to nearest multiple of 5

Source: Booz & Company analysis

9%

2020 -21E

180

2015 -16E

115

2010 -11

75

2005 -06

50

2 wheelersPassenger Cars3 wheelersHCVLCV

1 India Vehicle PARCMn Units

1India Liquid Fuel Demand MMT

10

15

20

30

75

60

2005 -06

50

40

7%

2020 -21E

135

105

2015 -16E

100

80

2010 -11

DieselPetrol

Page 10: October 15-16, 2012 – New Delhificci.in/spdocument/20290/Petrotech-Knowldege-Paper-2012.pdf · Fuel Retailing 2020 : Innovation Leaders & Game Changers in Policy, Technology & Business

Increasing liquid fuel demand will result in increasing import dependence for crude – reaching 80-85% by 2020

6 | Innovations & Game Changers in Fuel Retailing

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

260

280

300

320

~75% of India’s crude is imported

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E

Indigenous Crude ProductionCrude ImportSource: Ministry of Petroleum (Hydrocarbon Vision 2025),

Booz & Company analysis

MMT

India Crude Supply MMT

Page 11: October 15-16, 2012 – New Delhificci.in/spdocument/20290/Petrotech-Knowldege-Paper-2012.pdf · Fuel Retailing 2020 : Innovation Leaders & Game Changers in Policy, Technology & Business

Current pricing regime, in which liquid fuel prices are regulated with periodic revisions, is expected to continue in the near future

7 | Innovations & Game Changers in Fuel Retailing

Source: Bloomberg, Booz & Company analysis

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

2.2

Indexed Value

2012201120102009200820072006

Fuel prices not tracking crude price due to price

regulation

Normalized Petro-Product Price: IndiaIndexed to Jan’06 Values

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

2.2

20122011201020092008

Indexed Value

20072006

Fuel prices tracking crude price

Normalized Petro-Product Price: UKIndexed to Jan’06 Values

India Petrol Retail Prices - Average across 4 Metros

India Diesel Retail Prices - Average across 4 Metros

Crude oil (Dubai Fateh 32)

United Kingdom Euro-super 95 Petrol Pump Price Inc. Tax

United Kingdom Automotive Diesel Pump Price Inc. Tax

Crude oil (Dubai Fateh 32)

Page 12: October 15-16, 2012 – New Delhificci.in/spdocument/20290/Petrotech-Knowldege-Paper-2012.pdf · Fuel Retailing 2020 : Innovation Leaders & Game Changers in Policy, Technology & Business

India’s fuel emission standards are 4-5 years behind other countries, with limited consumer awareness

8 | Innovations & Game Changers in Fuel Retailing

1) Puducherry, Mathura, Vapi, Jamnagar, Ankleshwar,, Hissar, Bharatpur

2) Delhi, Mumbai, Kolkata, Bangalore, Chennai, Surat, Agra, Hyderabad, Pune, Ahmedabad, Kanpur, Lucknow, Solapur

*All country standards compared to Euro Emission Norms

Source: International Council of Clean Transportation Report, Booz & Company analysis

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

India Euro II Euro III

1India : 7 Cities Euro II Euro III Euro IV

2India : 13 Cities Euro III Euro IV

Brazil Euro II Euro III Euro IV PROCONVE 6

China Euro II Euro III Euro IV

South Korea US NLEV Euro IV (Diesel Vehicle) Euro V (Diesel Vehicles)

Euro Countries Euro IV Euro V Euro VI

Country-wise Emission Standard Schedules*Light Domestic Vehicles

Gaps in India Vehicle Emission Standards

• For 2 and 3 wheelers

- Air filter is not yet adopted

- Hydro Carbon (HC) & Nitrous Oxide (NOx) have combined standards

• For LDVs, Euro IV diesel emits three times NOx and higher Particulate Matter emissions than Euro IV gasoline

• For Commercial Vehicles & Trucks, Euro IV standards are limited to a few bus fleets, most of the trucks are still at Euro III

Stringency of Emission Norms

Low High

NOT EXHAUSTIVE

Page 13: October 15-16, 2012 – New Delhificci.in/spdocument/20290/Petrotech-Knowldege-Paper-2012.pdf · Fuel Retailing 2020 : Innovation Leaders & Game Changers in Policy, Technology & Business

The evolutionary trends in fuel retailing, observed in other global markets, have not yet emerged in the Indian fuel retail market

9 | Innovations & Game Changers in Fuel Retailing

Source: Booz & Company analysis

Evolutionary Trends in Global Markets

• Petrol stations are increasingly relying on non-fuel revenues to drive up margins

• E.g. In US, non-fuel revenues account for 32% of outlet revenues & ~63% ofgross margins

Reliance on non-fuel revenues

• Rise in competition, entry of new players, and the decline in fuel margins is driving many players out of business and leading to market consolidation (e.g. Germany, Canada & UK)

• Increased focus on cost reduction is leading to the shift to unmanned outlets (e.g. Netherlands)

Network rationalization & unmanned fuel stations

• Hypermarkets have entered fuel retailing and are playing a significant role in shaping the industry dynamics by increasing price pressure and relying on high volumes

• For e.g. in France and UK, hypermarkets capture ~50% and ~40% of fuel volume respectively

Entry of hypermarkets

Page 14: October 15-16, 2012 – New Delhificci.in/spdocument/20290/Petrotech-Knowldege-Paper-2012.pdf · Fuel Retailing 2020 : Innovation Leaders & Game Changers in Policy, Technology & Business

In summary, Indian Fuel Retailing continues to experience strong growth but lags international markets in terms of maturity

10 | Innovations & Game Changers in Fuel Retailing

Source: Booz & Company analysis

Current Scenario Summary

Demand• Mobility requirements will continue to increase due to economic growth and urbanization, leading to

higher demand for liquid fuels

Supply • Increasing liquid fuel demand will result in increasing import dependence – reaching 80-85% by 2020

Pricing• Current pricing regime, in which liquid fuel prices are regulated with periodic revisions, is expected to

continue in the immediate future

Quality / Sustainability

• India’s fuel emission standards are 4-5 years behind other countries, with limited consumer awareness

Global Market Trends

• The evolutionary trends in fuel retailing, observed in other global markets, have not yet emerged in t h e Indian fuel retail market

Page 15: October 15-16, 2012 – New Delhificci.in/spdocument/20290/Petrotech-Knowldege-Paper-2012.pdf · Fuel Retailing 2020 : Innovation Leaders & Game Changers in Policy, Technology & Business

In future, there are three possible scenarios for the Indian Fuel Retail sector

11 | Innovations & Game Changers in Fuel Retailing

Source: Booz & Company analysis

Indian Fuel Retail Market – Future Scenarios

Impact Factor Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3

Scenario DescriptionCurrent state is expected to continue in future

Incremental changes are expected to impact mkt.

New disruptive trends gain prominence

Demand

Mobility requirements

Innovation in IC Engine efficiency

Alternate powertrain technologies gaining prominence

Supply

Domestic crude production

Natural Gas penetration in energy basket

Economic feasibility of other alternate sources

Pricing

Crude price

Level of deregulation of fuel product prices

Quality / Sustainability

Emission & pollution levels in the country

Consistency and standardization of emission standards

Priority given to implementation of emission standards

Incremental Change Fundamental Change

Level of Change in Impact FactorType of Change

Increase vis-a-vis today Similar to today Low HighFocus Scenario

Page 16: October 15-16, 2012 – New Delhificci.in/spdocument/20290/Petrotech-Knowldege-Paper-2012.pdf · Fuel Retailing 2020 : Innovation Leaders & Game Changers in Policy, Technology & Business

We expect that price deregulation, stronger emission norms and growth of alternate fuels will reshape the Fuel Retail sector

12 | Innovations & Game Changers in Fuel Retailing

Source: Booz & Company analysis

Future scenario

Evolution of Indian Fuel Retail Sector

Current Scenario

Crude based Liquid Fuels

Low Emission Standards

Regulated Market

ICE Powertrains

Future Scenario

Crude based Liquid Fuels

ICE Powertrains+ Hybrid/electric

mobility

Alternate FuelsDeregulated

Market

Stronger Emission Standards

Disruptive Trend

Page 17: October 15-16, 2012 – New Delhificci.in/spdocument/20290/Petrotech-Knowldege-Paper-2012.pdf · Fuel Retailing 2020 : Innovation Leaders & Game Changers in Policy, Technology & Business

Market based fuel pricingMajor Trends and Game Changers

Page 18: October 15-16, 2012 – New Delhificci.in/spdocument/20290/Petrotech-Knowldege-Paper-2012.pdf · Fuel Retailing 2020 : Innovation Leaders & Game Changers in Policy, Technology & Business

Increasing deficit and unsustainable under recoveries of fuel retailers, in current pricing regime, make deregulation inevitable

14 | Innovations & Game Changers in Fuel Retailing

**Petrol under recoveries only till 25th June 2010

1) All values approximated to nearest multiple of 5

Source: Booz & Company analysis

1 Gross Fiscal Deficit of IndiaINR Bn

1,9801,890

1,345

755775

2,065

2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12

1 Fuel Retailers’ Gross Under RecoveriesINR Bn

75

50

50

810

370

145

575

425

210

190

350

525

95

34520

25

2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12

Gross Fiscal Deficit Petrol Under Recoveries** Diesel Under Recoveries

Page 19: October 15-16, 2012 – New Delhificci.in/spdocument/20290/Petrotech-Knowldege-Paper-2012.pdf · Fuel Retailing 2020 : Innovation Leaders & Game Changers in Policy, Technology & Business

The deregulation during 2002-05, though short-lived, had an impact on the market structure, customer service & outlet infrastructure

15 | Innovations & Game Changers in Fuel Retailing

*KLPM – Kilo Litres Per Month

Source: Secondary Research, Booz & Company analysis

Impact of Deregulation

• New players, e.g. Reliance, Essar & Shell entered market, making it more competitive

• With fewer outlets, new entrants captured ~17% of diesel & 10% of petrol sales

Increased competition

• With more choice, customers shifted to outlets offering better value & service

• Several initiatives, e.g. loyalty programs, quality & quantity assurance etc. became ‘must-haves’

Improved customer

service

• Fuel retail outlets were modernized with introduction of new technologies

• Example: Multi-product automated dispensing units, automatic car washes etc.

Outlet modernization

120145135

RIL

~450

HPCLIOCLBPCL

Incumbents New Entrant

New Trends Observed 2002-05

Customer service

campaigns

Modern Outlets Multi-product DUs

Throughput per Outlet KLPM, 2005 - 2006

Page 20: October 15-16, 2012 – New Delhificci.in/spdocument/20290/Petrotech-Knowldege-Paper-2012.pdf · Fuel Retailing 2020 : Innovation Leaders & Game Changers in Policy, Technology & Business

Moving forward, in a deregulated market, fuel retailers will need to answer market positioning and margin capture related questions

16 | Innovations & Game Changers in Fuel Retailing

Source: Booz & Company analysis

Impact of Deregulation on Indian Fuel Retailers

Free Market

How should new entrants position themselves in this competitive market?

How should new entrants position themselves in this competitive market?

How should fuel retailers tackle pricing & margin pressures in this competitive market?

Differentiation Strategy

Multi-Brand Strategy

Dynamic Pricing& Integrated Margin

Management

Key Trend Key Questions Potential Responses

Page 21: October 15-16, 2012 – New Delhificci.in/spdocument/20290/Petrotech-Knowldege-Paper-2012.pdf · Fuel Retailing 2020 : Innovation Leaders & Game Changers in Policy, Technology & Business

New entrants & incumbent fuel retailers can position themselves in the market based on specific differentiation levers

17 | Innovations & Game Changers in Fuel Retailing

*PSU – Public Sector Units

Source: Booz & Company analysis

Differentiation Levers for Fuel Retailers

Other Services & Products

Price

Format

Customer Segments

Product • No differentiation in products sold

• Box formats with service attendants

• ATMs, Vehicle Service Stations in urban outlets• Restaurants, Truck shops in highway outlets• C Store concept has not picked up in India

• Uniform price positioning by all fuel retailers

• Private players have highway or urban focus• PSU* players cater to all customer segments

• Focus on premium fuels sales

• Customized large format outlets

• Electric vehicle charging stations

• “Low cost” retailer positioning

• Focus on rural segments

Differentiation Lever Current ScenarioDifferentiation

Feasibility Differentiation Examples

Feasibility in India

Low High

Page 22: October 15-16, 2012 – New Delhificci.in/spdocument/20290/Petrotech-Knowldege-Paper-2012.pdf · Fuel Retailing 2020 : Innovation Leaders & Game Changers in Policy, Technology & Business

For example, fuel retailers can provide tailored products and service offerings catering to specific customer segments

18 | Innovations & Game Changers in Fuel Retailing

Source: Pilot Flying J, Booz & Company analysis

Customer Segmentation

Low Price Elasticity

High Price Elasticity

High Brand Loyalty

Low Brand Loyalty

Bubble sizes represent share of total site spend

Segment 5

Segment 4

Segment 2

Segment 1

Segment 6

Potential Target Segments

TILLUS RATIVE

Segment 3

Customer Segment-Specific Offerings

• Customer preferences in India are not homogenous,

- While highway customers are concerned about price, fuel quality and outlet facilities …

- … urban customers look for convenience, experience and access to other services (e.g., ATM)

• Fuel retailers can offer tailored value proposition to specific customer segments, for e.g.:

- Pilot Flying J, in USA, has a network of ~550 interstate travel centers and travel plazas catering primarily to truckers & highway traveler segments

- Apart from fuel dispensing, Pilot Flying J also provides drivers' lounges, showers and restrooms

Page 23: October 15-16, 2012 – New Delhificci.in/spdocument/20290/Petrotech-Knowldege-Paper-2012.pdf · Fuel Retailing 2020 : Innovation Leaders & Game Changers in Policy, Technology & Business

UK is a case in the point where major players have differentiated themselves based on ‘premium’ products and quality

19 | Innovations & Game Changers in Fuel Retailing

Source: 2000 MPSI Data, Booz & Company analysis

Price-Volume Response Curve UK Example

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

136 138 140 142 144 146 148 150

Discounter 2

Discounter 1

Discounter 4

Discounter 3

Incumbents

Small players

Low relative elasticity of incumbents sites suggested potential to adopt differentiated ‘quality’ positioning

Key Takeaways

• Entrance of hypermarkets with low-cost offer put significant competitive pressure on major fuel retailers

– Initial attempts focused on competing on price / mimic (e.g. Esso Price Watch)

– While this provided some short-term volume protection, margin loss was considerable

– Also, this did not prevent hypermarket penetration

• Given this situation, companies such as Shell and BP decided to focus on other price segments by:

– Adopting premium price positions (consciously higher than hypermarkets)

– Introducing new products to maximise benefits from their smaller, but less price elastic customer base

Vo

lum

e In

dex

EXAMPLE

Price

Page 24: October 15-16, 2012 – New Delhificci.in/spdocument/20290/Petrotech-Knowldege-Paper-2012.pdf · Fuel Retailing 2020 : Innovation Leaders & Game Changers in Policy, Technology & Business

Incumbent fuel retailers can adopt a multi-brand strategy with offerings targeted at different segments to capture value

20 | Innovations & Game Changers in Fuel Retailing

1) Brand positioning can vary by country though, depending on market share

Source: Booz & Company analysis

1Brand Positioning Examples

Need for multi-brand strategy

• Increase in competition due to deregulation requires a more sophisticated approach to customer acquisition

• Today, fuel retailers have established retail network spread across India & cater to multiple customer segments

• A pure-play differentiation strategy may necessitate network rationalization and shrinkage of customer base which may not be feasible for an incumbent

• Hence, a multi-brand strategy will help fuel retailers target different customer segments without brand dilution

• For example, an unbranded set of sites will allow fuel retailers to compete more aggressively with ‘low cost’ new entrants without impacting their overall brand

Low MediumCustomer Loyalty

High

Cu

sto

mer

Pri

ce S

ensi

tivi

ty

Hig

h P

rice

Sen

siti

vity

Low

Pri

ce S

ensi

tivi

ty

Page 25: October 15-16, 2012 – New Delhificci.in/spdocument/20290/Petrotech-Knowldege-Paper-2012.pdf · Fuel Retailing 2020 : Innovation Leaders & Game Changers in Policy, Technology & Business

For example, ConocoPhillips has “Phillips 66” brand retailing performance gasoline & “Jet” brand positioned as low cost retailer

21 | Innovations & Game Changers in Fuel Retailing

*Note: Phillips 66 which is the downstream operations company of ConocoPhillips demerged from parent company in 2012

Source: Phillips66, Conoco, Jet, 76, Booz & Company analysis

Multi-brand Strategy Example ConocoPhillips*

• Umbrella company for all downstream operations of ConocoPhillips

• Also has fuel retail outlets under the Phillips 66 brand

• Positioned as retailer of high performance premium gasoline

• Another fuel retail brand under the Phillips66 umbrella

• Sells Conoco detergent gasoline focusing on lower emissions & higher mileage

• Has ~2,000 retail outlets across USA

• The 76 brand was acquired from Union Oil Company by Phillips 66

• Retails the PROclean brand gasoline at its outlets

• Has ~1,800 retail fuel sites in the United States

• JET brand is synonymous with low prices and value for money

• Acquired by Conoco, it is positioned to serve price sensitive customers

• There are ~350 independently-operated JET outlets across the UK

NorthAmerica

Fuel Retail Brands

Description Geography

UK & Europe

EXAMPLE

Page 26: October 15-16, 2012 – New Delhificci.in/spdocument/20290/Petrotech-Knowldege-Paper-2012.pdf · Fuel Retailing 2020 : Innovation Leaders & Game Changers in Policy, Technology & Business

Dynamic pricing strategy tailors pricing to local or even site-by-site level, driving volume throughput or unit margins

22 | Innovations & Game Changers in Fuel Retailing

Source: Booz & Company analysis

Example of differences in competitive environment

Need for Dynamic Pricing

• Local competitive environments can vary significantly, characteristics of distinction are

- Type of competition (brand vs. non-brand vs. price cutter)

- Number of competitors

- Distance between stations

- Location of station (which side of the road)

- Objective of competition: volumes or margins

• Dominant players in the market usually apply national price increase mechanism with slight variations for differences in the competitive environment of regions

• However, most of the times local competitive environments are only indirectly considered in pricing tactics, i.e. follow the competition

• Tailoring pricing to local competitive environments provides a potential lever to drive underlying company strategy, i.e. volume play or maximisation of margins

• 3 competitors

• 1 x Brand leader, 1x price cutter, 1 x unbranded

• 2 competitors on main road close to each other

• 4 competitors

• 2 x Brand leader, 2 x price cutter

Page 27: October 15-16, 2012 – New Delhificci.in/spdocument/20290/Petrotech-Knowldege-Paper-2012.pdf · Fuel Retailing 2020 : Innovation Leaders & Game Changers in Policy, Technology & Business

The dynamic pricing environment will require a different set of capabilities which consider the price influencers & decision levels

23 | Innovations & Game Changers in Fuel Retailing

Source: Booz & Company analysis

Dynamic Pricing Decision Chain

Pricing Framework

& ToolsOrganizational Capability

Competition Assessment Price / Margin Calculation

Pricing ExecutionReporting & Market

Intelligence

Customer Behavior

Micro-Market Structure

Relative Cost PositionFuel Station

Network

Market

Pricing Decision Components

Pricing Decision Levels

Pricing Decision Influencers

Page 28: October 15-16, 2012 – New Delhificci.in/spdocument/20290/Petrotech-Knowldege-Paper-2012.pdf · Fuel Retailing 2020 : Innovation Leaders & Game Changers in Policy, Technology & Business

In deregulated markets, independent infomediaries have started providing real time fuel price transparency

24 | Innovations & Game Changers in Fuel Retailing

Source: GasBuddy website, AA website

Real-time Fuel Price Tracking Role of Infomediaries

US Example : GasBuddy Smartphone App UK Example : AA Fuel Price Finder & GPS

EXAMPLE

Page 29: October 15-16, 2012 – New Delhificci.in/spdocument/20290/Petrotech-Knowldege-Paper-2012.pdf · Fuel Retailing 2020 : Innovation Leaders & Game Changers in Policy, Technology & Business

In addition, fuel retailers need to adopt an end-to-end margin view through the IMM capability to capture margin at the outlet level

25 | Innovations & Game Changers in Fuel Retailing

Source: Booz & Company analysis

Down-stream value chain and margin contributors

IMM is about…

• … taking an integrated view of the d o w n - s t r e a m v a l u e c h a i n understanding clearly the drivers of margin at each level

– Refining, Logistics, Wholesale, Retail etc.

• … identifying ways to optimize the components to unlock one-off benefits

• … building a sustainable capability to monitor and continuously optimize the margin as business conditions evolve

Service Station

Retail PriceWholesale Price

Reseller

Rack Price

DepotRefinery Dock

Transfer Price at Refinery Gate(spot market

less transportation)

Delivered Price Raw Material

Refining Margin

Source of Crude Oil

Refinery

Commercial Customer

Logistios Mangin

Downstneam Margin

Wholesale Margin

Retail Margin

Page 30: October 15-16, 2012 – New Delhificci.in/spdocument/20290/Petrotech-Knowldege-Paper-2012.pdf · Fuel Retailing 2020 : Innovation Leaders & Game Changers in Policy, Technology & Business

Thus, to succeed in a free market, fuel retailers need to develop a strategy built around differentiating capabilities and technology

26 | Innovations & Game Changers in Fuel Retailing

Source: Booz & Company analysis

Market based fuel pricing

Fuel Price Deregulation

• Deregulation of fuel prices in India is inevitable in the medium-long term given India’s over-dependence on crude imports and unsustainable fuel subsidies

• In a free-market scenario, fuel retailers will experience a tectonic shift in market dynamics -- competition will intensify and there will be increasing pressure on pricing, margins and customer retention

Key Questions

• How should new entrants position themselves in this competitive market?

• How should incumbent fuel retailers position themselves in this competitive market?

• How should fuel retailers tackle pricing & margin pressures in this competitive market?

• New entrant & incumbent fuel retailers can position themselves based on specific differentiation levers

• Fuel retailers can provide tailored products and service offerings catering to specific customer segmentsDifferentiation

Strategy

• Incumbent fuel retailers can adopt a multi-brand strategy with offerings targeted at different segments

• A multi-brand strategy provides long-term strategic benefits in different market environments & allows to challenge competition

Multi-Brand Strategy

• Build dynamic pricing capabilities to react faster to competitor/crude prices and to leverage technological interventions such as real-time price tracking

• Adopt an end-to-end margin view through the Integrated Margin Management capability to capture margin at the outlet level

Dynamic Pricing & IMM

Page 31: October 15-16, 2012 – New Delhificci.in/spdocument/20290/Petrotech-Knowldege-Paper-2012.pdf · Fuel Retailing 2020 : Innovation Leaders & Game Changers in Policy, Technology & Business

Emission standards & sustainabilityMajor Trends and Game Changers

Page 32: October 15-16, 2012 – New Delhificci.in/spdocument/20290/Petrotech-Knowldege-Paper-2012.pdf · Fuel Retailing 2020 : Innovation Leaders & Game Changers in Policy, Technology & Business

Due to growing emission levels, countries are moving to stricter emission norms; India is also increasing its focus on emissions

28 | Innovations & Game Changers in Fuel Retailing

*HC + NOx – Hydrocarbon + Nitrous Oxide

Source: IEA World Energy Report 2011, World Wide Emission Trend Report, EU Legislation, Booz & Company analysis

Global CO Emission Levels 2

GTPA

3633

23

15

2020E201019901970

0.170.23

0.30

0.56

0.70

Euro 6Euro 5Euro 4Euro 3Euro 2

Permissible HC + NOx Levels

Permissible HC + NOx* Levels – Euro Normgm/Kg

Global CO2 Emission Levels

Global NOx Emission Levels MTPA

1418

26

16

2020E201019901970

Global NOx Emission Levels

India Fuel Emission Policies

• India’s Auto Fuel Policy (2003) includes a road map for reducing the emission norms for new vehicles

- Encourages the use of CNG/LNG in cities affected by high motor vehicle pollution

• The National Mission on Sustainable Habitat suggests a future focus on strengthening the enforcement of vehicle fuel economy standards

Page 33: October 15-16, 2012 – New Delhificci.in/spdocument/20290/Petrotech-Knowldege-Paper-2012.pdf · Fuel Retailing 2020 : Innovation Leaders & Game Changers in Policy, Technology & Business

Changing emission standards have led to the evolution of fuel and lube specifications with a shift towards premium products

29 | Innovations & Game Changers in Fuel Retailing

Source: European Standards Organization, Lubrizol, Booz & Company analysis

1994

2005

.

20092000

1996

• A maximum sulfur

limit of 0.05% (wt.)

= 500 ppm for

diesel

• A maximum sulfur limit of 50

ppm for highway vehicles.

• “Sulfur-free” 10 ppm sulfur

diesel fuel must be available

• A maximum sulfur

limit of 0.2% (wt.)

for diesel

• A maximum sulfur limit of 350 ppm and cetane number of 51 for

diesel

• A maximum sulfur

limit of 10 ppm

(“sulfur-free”) for

highway vehicles

Impact of Euro Standards on Diesel Specs Sulfur Content

Evolution of Lube Specification

JASO DH-1

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

EURO IV

USA 2000

European OCMO and Diesel

North American Diesel

North American PCMO

CJ-4(PC-9) CJ-4PLUS

Emis

sio

n R

egu

lati

on

Lub

rica

nt

Spe

cifi

cati

on

GF-3 GF-4 GF-5

ACEA 99 ACEA 04 ACEA 06 ACEA 08 ACEA 10?

PC 11?

ACEA 02

CJ-4(PC-10)

Update JASO DH/DL?

Japanese DieselJASO DH-1DH-2/DL-1

Japan 2000

EURO III

Japan 2004

EURO V

USA 2007 USA 2010?

EURO VI?

Japan2010?

EXAMPLE

Page 34: October 15-16, 2012 – New Delhificci.in/spdocument/20290/Petrotech-Knowldege-Paper-2012.pdf · Fuel Retailing 2020 : Innovation Leaders & Game Changers in Policy, Technology & Business

In case of India, there has been low acceptability of premium fuels & lubes, due to customer price sensitivity

30 | Innovations & Game Changers in Fuel Retailing

Source: Economic Times, Booz & Company analysis

Premium Fuels Sales in India ML

1,541

2,119

3,0563,311

906

1,807

4,546

5,822

2010-112009-102008-092007-08

Premium DieselPremium Petrol

High taxes on premium fuels combined with

subsidized prices for normal fuels has created

high price differential

Automotive Lubes Base Oil Consumption% Share of 1 MMTPA, 2010

25%

Group III

1%

Group II

Group I

74%High share of Group I base oils indicates market’s preference for low-end lubes

Page 35: October 15-16, 2012 – New Delhificci.in/spdocument/20290/Petrotech-Knowldege-Paper-2012.pdf · Fuel Retailing 2020 : Innovation Leaders & Game Changers in Policy, Technology & Business

Apart from emission standards, the overall sustainability topic has also been growing in importance for corporates globally

31 | Innovations & Game Changers in Fuel Retailing

Source: United Nations, Booz & Company Analysis

Sustainability Important Dates

1972 1987 1992 1997 2002 2009 2012 2015

Environment Carbon Sustain.Sustainable

Value

UN Stockholm Conference on

how human activities were harming the environment and

putting humans at risks

Rio’s Earth Summit where

governments commit to Agenda 21, a sustainable

st dev. plan for the 21 century

Johannesburg’s World Summit sets

Millennium Development Goals with targets on poverty reduction,

health, gender equality

“Rio+20” Earth Summit on

green economy and cultural diversity in the context of

recession

The World Commission on Environment and

Development publishes Our Common Future, after the Brundtland Commission popularized the term sustainable development

160 nations signed the Kyoto

protocol for limiting greenhouse gas emissions (not signed by the US)

Copenhagen Summit for the

new Kyoto but non-binding agreement – signed by US/EU and developing countries

Scheduled World Climate

Summit

Conferences

&Objectives

Environment Environment

EconomySocial

Environment

Economy

Social

Culture

Academics

UN & Governments

Business

NGOs

Academics

UN & Governments

Business

NGOs

Academics

UN & Governments

NGOs

UN & Governments

Economy

Environment

Covered Themes

Participants

Page 36: October 15-16, 2012 – New Delhificci.in/spdocument/20290/Petrotech-Knowldege-Paper-2012.pdf · Fuel Retailing 2020 : Innovation Leaders & Game Changers in Policy, Technology & Business

In such a scenario, fuel and lube retailers need to think about product development, promotions & sustainable strategies

32 | Innovations & Game Changers in Fuel Retailing

Source: Booz & Company analysis

Impact of Emission Standards & Sustainability on Indian Fuel Retailers

Key Questions Potential ResponsesKey Trend

Emission Standards &

Sustainability

How to develop products which are acceptable by the market?

How to market premium and environmentally friendly products?

How to become a sustainability focused organization?

Collaborative Product

Development

Innovative Promotion & Awareness Campaigns

Sustainability Strategy

Page 37: October 15-16, 2012 – New Delhificci.in/spdocument/20290/Petrotech-Knowldege-Paper-2012.pdf · Fuel Retailing 2020 : Innovation Leaders & Game Changers in Policy, Technology & Business

At a product level, fuel retailers should focus on innovations and new product development through collaboration with Auto OEMs

33 | Innovations & Game Changers in Fuel Retailing

*OEM – Original Equipment Manufacturer

Source: Dow Chemicals, Shell, Booz & Company analysis

Lubricant Technology Innovations Polyalkylene Glycol based Lubricants

Companies have started producing Polyalkylene Glycol(PAG) based synthetic lubricant fluids

PAG based lubes provide low friction and film-forming advantages

Other benefits include deposit control, polarity, and high viscosity index values

PAG lubes outperform mineral oil based lubes, providing higher energy efficiency & longer equipment life

Auto OEM*

OEMApproved Product

Fuel RetailersLubricants

Manufacturer

Collaboration Example

• Shell Oils collaborated with Mercedes Benz Truck Manufacturing for lube development

The collaboration resulted in the development of heavy duty diesel engine lubricant, Shell Rimula R6 LME

Shell Rimula R6 LME improves engine energy efficiency and is low in SAPS (Sulphated Ash, Phosphorus and Sulphur)

EXAMPLER&D Collaboration Model

Page 38: October 15-16, 2012 – New Delhificci.in/spdocument/20290/Petrotech-Knowldege-Paper-2012.pdf · Fuel Retailing 2020 : Innovation Leaders & Game Changers in Policy, Technology & Business

Innovative marketing campaigns, targeting the Indian customers’ “price sensitivity”, should be used for promoting premium products

34 | Innovations & Game Changers in Fuel Retailing

Source: Tendersinfo, Proquest, Booz & Company analysis

Innovative Lubes Promotion Campaign

Castrol’s Extended Care Program

• Vehicle service contract (VSC) program offered by Castrol & Warrantech

Program Features

• Provides free services for Castrol Oil Club members

• All plans include benefits such as complementary or discounted Castrol oil changes for a defined period

• Free reminder service to customers, for an oil change, for first 3 years of contract

• Dealerships earn oil rebate cash incentives with every agreement remitted.

Premium Fuels Promotion Campaign

• Promotion aimed at boosting sales of Total’s advanced petrol and diesel brand Excellium

• First-of-its-kind premium fuel promotion in the fuel sector

• Total offered money back promise if Excellium did not meet specified high performance standards

EXAMPLE

Page 39: October 15-16, 2012 – New Delhificci.in/spdocument/20290/Petrotech-Knowldege-Paper-2012.pdf · Fuel Retailing 2020 : Innovation Leaders & Game Changers in Policy, Technology & Business

Fuel retailers will need to proactively develop closer relationships with customers through consumer awareness campaigns

35 | Innovations & Game Changers in Fuel Retailing

Source: Shell, BP, Paultan.org, Booz & Company analysis

Consumer Awareness Campaigns

Shell “Target One Million” Campaign

• Shell Target One Million is a Shell FuelSave campaign aimed at improving fuel efficiency of 1 million motorists globally

The online campaign was carried out in 15 countries across the globe

Campaign aimed at educating motorists that the right choice of fuel paired with changes to their driving habits can reduce fuel costs

BP “Invigorate” Campaign

• Campaign to promote “Invigorate” brand of additive using the analogy of human health care for taking care of the car

This strategy was a discrete departure from the technical emphasis that was typical across the industry in traditional gasoline advertising

An “Invigoration mobile tour” was undertaken across US, raising awareness among consumers, about the product, using unique customer activities

EXAMPLE

Page 40: October 15-16, 2012 – New Delhificci.in/spdocument/20290/Petrotech-Knowldege-Paper-2012.pdf · Fuel Retailing 2020 : Innovation Leaders & Game Changers in Policy, Technology & Business

Comprehensive sustainability strategy should be adopted focusing on carbon footprint mgt., green regulations & business models etc.

36 | Innovations & Game Changers in Fuel Retailing

Source: Booz & Company Analysis

Sustainability Strategy

Cost & Footprint Management– Lean Production

– Energy & emissions management

– Low carbon supply chains

– Reuse/Remanufacturing/Recycling (Closing the Loop)

Business Model Enhancement– Greener sourcing

– Greener market positioning

– Greener customer segmentation

– Future-proof strategies

Regulatory Change– Policy research and analysis

– Policy implementation

– Carbon trading

Growth & Innovation– Green product development

– New green business opportunities

– Renewable & alternative energy sector growth

– Cleantech deployment & growth

Page 41: October 15-16, 2012 – New Delhificci.in/spdocument/20290/Petrotech-Knowldege-Paper-2012.pdf · Fuel Retailing 2020 : Innovation Leaders & Game Changers in Policy, Technology & Business

Leading energy companies have already moved beyond mere compliance to adoption of sustainable business models

37 | Innovations & Game Changers in Fuel Retailing

1) The lack of established pricing methodology (similar to CO ) for bio-diversity prevents profitable initiatives from emerging; 2

new business models in employee-related sustainability are yet to be developed

Source: Booz & Company Analysis

Initiative Type vs. Value Matrix

New BusinessModel

ProfitableSustainability

Compliance

ENVIRONMENTAL SOCIAL

Emissions to Air

Water & Waste Mgmt.

Renewable Energy

Bio-Diversity

Labour Practices

Health & Safety

StaffDiversity

Local Comm.

Value

D

A C

F

B

Current Sustainability

“Frontier”

G

H

E

BG GROUP

bpA CB H

bp

No sustainability initiatives in these

1areas yet )

Selected Sustainability Initiatives

A

B

C

D

E

F

G

H

Total: CCS Plant in France

BP: Energy from HazardousWaste

Shell: Investment in Biofuels

Chevron: Project SeahorsePartnership

BP: Operating Management System

BG: Stress Resilience Program

Exxon: New Hiring Program

Statoil: Development of Local Supply Chain

Page 42: October 15-16, 2012 – New Delhificci.in/spdocument/20290/Petrotech-Knowldege-Paper-2012.pdf · Fuel Retailing 2020 : Innovation Leaders & Game Changers in Policy, Technology & Business

Moving forward, fuel retailers should develop a collaborative mindset, sustainability focus and proactive customer relationships

38 | Innovations & Game Changers in Fuel Retailing

Source: Booz & Company analysis

Emissions & Sustainability

Emissions Norms &

Sustainability

• Growing emission levels are making countries move to stricter emission norms

Changing emission standards have led to the evolution of fuel and lube specifications with a shift towards premium products; there has been low acceptability of premium fuels & lubes in India

The overall sustainability topic has also been growing in importance for corporates globally

Key Questions

How to develop products which are acceptable by the market?

How to market premium and environmentally friendly products?

How to become a sustainability focused organization?

• At a product level, fuel retailers should focus on new product innovations in fuels and lubes

• Product development should be taken up through collaboration with Auto OEMs

Collaborative Product

Development

Innovative marketing campaigns, targeting the Indian customers’ “price sensitivity”, should be used for promoting premium products

Consumer awareness campaigns can also be conducted to educate the customer about the need for fuel efficiency & lower emissions

Innovative Promotion & Awareness Campaigns

Comprehensive sustainability strategy should be adopted focusing on carbon footprint management, green regulations & business models etc.

Leading energy companies have already moved beyond mere compliance to adoption of sustainable business models

Sustainability Strategy

Page 43: October 15-16, 2012 – New Delhificci.in/spdocument/20290/Petrotech-Knowldege-Paper-2012.pdf · Fuel Retailing 2020 : Innovation Leaders & Game Changers in Policy, Technology & Business

Growth of alternate fuelsMajor Trends and Game Changers

Page 44: October 15-16, 2012 – New Delhificci.in/spdocument/20290/Petrotech-Knowldege-Paper-2012.pdf · Fuel Retailing 2020 : Innovation Leaders & Game Changers in Policy, Technology & Business

CNG, LNG & Electric Vehicles have higher chance of gaining prominence in India compared to other alternate fuels

40 | Innovations & Game Changers in Fuel Retailing

*Liquid Fuels – Gasoline & Diesel

Source: Booz & Company analysis

Emerging Fuel Types

Coal-to-Liquid Fuels (CTL)

Biomass-to-Liquid Fuels (BTL)

Coal

Natural Gas

Biomass

Gas-to-Liquid Fuels (GTL)

Liquid Fuels*

Electricity

Crude

Primary Fuel Source Fuel Type

Alternate Fuel

Sources

Feasibility Requirements

CNG

LNG

High cap-ex requirements & feasible only at crude > $110/bbl

High cap-ex requirements & feasible at low gas prices

Stable/ economic natural gas & wider distribution infra. required

Fuel retailing infra. & stable / economic LNG supply required

Feasible with government policies & incentives

Feasible with lower battery costs & wider charging infrastructure

Feasibility High Medium Low

Page 45: October 15-16, 2012 – New Delhificci.in/spdocument/20290/Petrotech-Knowldege-Paper-2012.pdf · Fuel Retailing 2020 : Innovation Leaders & Game Changers in Policy, Technology & Business

Moving forward, CNG & LNG are expected to become important fuels globally with India emerging as a major center of adoption

41 | Innovations & Game Changers in Fuel Retailing

1)Vehicle Parc refers to the total vehicle population

Source: Det Norske Veritas, Pike Research, 2011, Booz & Company analysis

1CNG / LNG Car Parc By Region -- Mn Vehicles

1.5 1.7 1.9 2.0 2.2 2.4 2.71.2 1.82.8

4.45.8

7.08.4

10.011.5

13.014.7

16.4

1.31.2

0.60.60.9

4.0

2009

11.4

4.0

2008

9.6

3.8

2007

7.4

0.9

3.5

2006

5.8

0.8

3.0

2005

5.3

2014E

20.5

5.0

2013E

18.5

4.7

2012E

16.5

4.4

2011E

14.5

4.2

2010E

12.8

2016E

25.0

5.7

2015E

22.7

4.6

2.7

2004

3.9

2.2

2003

3.1

0.71.7

2002

2.4

1.3

2001

1.80.9

2000

1.3

CAGR27%

CAGR12%

Latin-America Asia-Pacific / Middle East Europe Others

1CNG / LNG Car Parc Top Countries

6%

4%

8%

15%

16%

14%

20%

17%

Argentina Brazil Pakistan Iran

India China Europe RoW

• About 3% of total car population in India runs on CNG

• Under favourable conditions, CNG penetration in cars

is expected to grow to 20% by 2020

Page 46: October 15-16, 2012 – New Delhificci.in/spdocument/20290/Petrotech-Knowldege-Paper-2012.pdf · Fuel Retailing 2020 : Innovation Leaders & Game Changers in Policy, Technology & Business

For CNG growth in India, additional infrastructure is required, as existing CNG infrastructure is inadequate & localized to few cities

42 | Innovations & Game Changers in Fuel Retailing

1)Includes 3 wheelers, cars, buses and LCVs

Source: PPAC, Global Insight, Booz & Company analysis

State-wise # of CNG stations April 2012

121213

2328

168

284

308

RajTripuraHaryanaMPAndhra Pradesh

UPMahGujaratDelhi / NCR

Number of vehicles per unit fuel stationAddressable vehicle segments1 for CNG, April 2012

569

1,9942,044

2,279

GujaratMah Overall India (Liquid fuel)

Delhi / NCR

CNG stations only exist in a few states in India. Companies are offered licenses to

develop the CNG network via a bidding

process run by PNGRB. Delays in the current bidding process has stalled the

growth of CNG network

No. of CNG Stations in 2012

Significant retail expansion

opportunities exist even in states

with higher CNG penetration. However, real estate is a

constraint

No. of vehicles per fuel station

Page 47: October 15-16, 2012 – New Delhificci.in/spdocument/20290/Petrotech-Knowldege-Paper-2012.pdf · Fuel Retailing 2020 : Innovation Leaders & Game Changers in Policy, Technology & Business

Further, stable and economic sources of natural gas & streamlined price regulation are also required to ensure the CNG growth story

43 | Innovations & Game Changers in Fuel Retailing

*R-LNG : Re-gasified LNG

Source: GAIL, IGL, CRISIL, Booz & Company analysis

Factors Impacting CNG Growth

Domestic Gas is Limited

• With domestic gas production stagnating (owing to falling KG-D6 production) there is increasing reliance on R-LNG*

4636363129

150

129

87

63

0

50

100

150

2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

MMSCMD

87

Projected LNG Imports

Historic LNG Imports

LNG Imports to IndiaHistorical and Projections, 2008-17

Global Gas Prices High

• With the discovery of US shale gas, oil and Henry Hub gas prices have delinked and US gas prices remain depressed

The US is becoming a gas exporter (liquefaction facilities planned at Sabine Pass and Freeport)

However, it remains to be seen if US gas will impact global prices as demand for LNG is strong, with Japan building re-gas capacity after Fukushima and China also counting on LNG imports for fuelling growth

Regulations Favor Alternatives

• CNG adoption will primarily be driven by lower operating cost of CNG vehicles which in turn is driven by the price of CNG versus liquid fuels

In a free market environment, CNG is expected to be priced cheaper than petrol/ diesel even with significant imports

However, current price control regulations are tilted in favor of d i e s e l , w h i c h i s i m p e d i n g widespread CNG adoption

Page 48: October 15-16, 2012 – New Delhificci.in/spdocument/20290/Petrotech-Knowldege-Paper-2012.pdf · Fuel Retailing 2020 : Innovation Leaders & Game Changers in Policy, Technology & Business

On the LNG front, several initiatives related to LNG trucks are being pursued worldwide

44 | Innovations & Game Changers in Fuel Retailing

Note: Initiatives occurred in the last 3 years worldwide were included in the analysis

Source: Booz & Company analysis, Nexis

Examples of Worldwide Initiatives on LNG for Trucks

GNL Quintero (CL)

City of Sacramento (US)

UPS (US)

Chesapeake Energy (US)

Encana (CA)

Building its own liquefaction facility in Strathmore (AB), in

conjunction with projects to build LNG gas

stations to fuel trucks and upstream equipment

Investing 150$ mln in 150 LNG truck fueling stations at strategic truck-stop locations

48 LNG trucks on the route between Ontario

to Las Vegas. Prospective expansion to 1100

trucks.

Building a LNG plant, planning to retail to

trucks on the Calgary-Red Deer-Edmonton

corridor

Shell (CA)

53 new LNG trucks

(Total bid $15.8 mln)

City of Sacramento (US)

Opened the first LNG filling station to operate

3 LNG trucks

Vos Logistics (NL)

Opened 2 combined LNG + LCNG filling stations and building 10 more

Vanzetti Engineering (IT)

Made available 1 mln € to build LNG stations.

The consortium Cryotrucks is building 2 around “metadistretto

logistico veneto”

Regione Veneto (IT)

Coca-Cola is testing their first LNG truck. They

installed a station in their Enfield plant.

Coca-Cola (UK)

Upgraded LNG import plant to include a LNG truck loading facility.

GNL Quintero (CL)

Commissioned a LNG plant that would expand

availability of LNG in Western Australia for the

heavy-duty vehicle, industrial gas and

remote power station markets

(64000 tonnes per year)

Wesfarmers Energy (AU)

Westfarmers has a partnership with

APG that developed the engine technology

Page 49: October 15-16, 2012 – New Delhificci.in/spdocument/20290/Petrotech-Knowldege-Paper-2012.pdf · Fuel Retailing 2020 : Innovation Leaders & Game Changers in Policy, Technology & Business

While “xEVs” or “electric vehicles” is loosely used to describe a broad set of vehicles, only two directly connect to the electric grid

45 | Innovations & Game Changers in Fuel Retailing

Source: Secondary Research, Booz & Company analysis

Universe of Electric Vehicles

HybridsPHEV

Mild Hybrid Micro Hybrid Full HybridBEV

Basic Features

Battery Technology

Electric Range

Charging Technique

ICE usage

Start-stop assist, limited regenerative braking

ICE driven

Lead Acid

Fuel based or regenerative braking

No electric range

Start-stop assist, active regenerative braking,

limited launch assist

ICE driven

Lead Acid, Nickel Metal Hydride, Li Ion

Regenerative braking

No electric range

Start-stop assist, regenerative

braking, launch assist and limited motor drive

ICE driven, may have electric range

Lead Acid, Nickel Metal Hydride, Li Ion

Regenerative braking

No electric range

Plug-in battery charging, motor drive

ICE backup, generally has a full electric operation mode

Lead Acid, Nickel Metal Hydride, Li Ion

Through external grid connection

With or without full electric range

Full electric operation, without ICE backup

No ICE backup

Lead Acid, Nickel Metal Hydride, Li Ion

Through external grid connection

Full electric range

Page 50: October 15-16, 2012 – New Delhificci.in/spdocument/20290/Petrotech-Knowldege-Paper-2012.pdf · Fuel Retailing 2020 : Innovation Leaders & Game Changers in Policy, Technology & Business

Although PHEVs/ BEVs are expected to pick up, high acquisition cost driven by high battery cost is the key factor affecting adoption

46 | Innovations & Game Changers in Fuel Retailing

1)Manufacturer’s suggested retail price

Source: IEA, ANL, Booz & Company analysis

Global PHEV & BEV Demand Mn Units

PHEV

2050

106

47

60

2045

90

34

56

2040

71

23

48

2035

50

14

36

2030

BEV

9

25

2025

18

5

13

2020

7

25

2015E

10 1

2010

00 0

33

1MSRP Comparison – Conventional Vehicle vs. EVUSD, Sub-Compact Vehicle, High Volume Production, 2010

17,43515,53513,000

+12%+20%

High Performance BEVLow Performance BEVConventional Vehicle

Components of Manufacturing Cost 2010

PowerTrain 67%

Car Body 10%

Chassis 16%

Interiors 7%

55-70% 5-10% 10-15% 5-15%

Battery Cell BMSPowerElectronics

Motor Transmission System

<5%

Page 51: October 15-16, 2012 – New Delhificci.in/spdocument/20290/Petrotech-Knowldege-Paper-2012.pdf · Fuel Retailing 2020 : Innovation Leaders & Game Changers in Policy, Technology & Business

Companies like “Better Place” and Coulomb Technologies have started providing EV charging points & battery swap facilities

47 | Innovations & Game Changers in Fuel Retailing

Source: Better Place, Aloha Petroleum, Booz & Company analysis

EV Charging Network

Better Place

Aloha Petroleum

Key Highlights

• Better Place is pioneering a battery swap model which would allow drivers to swap their batteries for fully charged ones on a pay per use basis

Aloha Petroleum and AeroVironment have teamed up to install electric vehicle fast charging stations at three fuel stations on Oahu (Hawaii)

Coulomb Technologies is an electric vehicle infrastructure company offering Charge Point Networked Stations in US

Coulomb Technologies

EXAMPLE

Page 52: October 15-16, 2012 – New Delhificci.in/spdocument/20290/Petrotech-Knowldege-Paper-2012.pdf · Fuel Retailing 2020 : Innovation Leaders & Game Changers in Policy, Technology & Business

When these alternate fuels gain prominence, fuel retailers need to address certain strategic, business model & operations questions

48 | Innovations & Game Changers in Fuel Retailing

*Assuming that fuel retailing companies have decided to retail alternate fuels

Source: Booz & Company analysis

Impact of Alternate Fuels on Indian Fuel Retailers

Key Questions Potential Responses*Key Trend

Rise of Alternate Fuels

Should fuel retailers enter into alternate fuel retailing?

When should the fuel retailers enter into alternate fuel retailing?

How should fuel retailersretail alternate fuels?

CNG as part of multi-fuel urban

outlets

LNG fuelled coastal freight

corridors

City-level EV charging

infrastructure

Page 53: October 15-16, 2012 – New Delhificci.in/spdocument/20290/Petrotech-Knowldege-Paper-2012.pdf · Fuel Retailing 2020 : Innovation Leaders & Game Changers in Policy, Technology & Business

Fuel retailers can retail CNG as part of multi-fuel outlets in urban areas due to supply infrastructure constraints & limited real estate

49 | Innovations & Game Changers in Fuel Retailing

Source: Booz & Company analysis

A Sample Futuristic Multi-Fuel Retail Station

Stop ‘n shopLubricants

Service Station Building

Underground liquid fuel

storage

Cross sales of lubricant through specialized stores

Convenience store and food outlets for customer engagement

and additional revenue

Vehicle service station integrated

Diesel

Additional space used to install CNG

processing and

storage machinery

Safety standards for multi fuel storage

maintained

Solar panels installed to partially cater to fuel station’s

energy requirements

Outlet management outsourced to specialized

manpower providers

Outlet Staff to provide value added service for enhanced customer experience (e.g

car wash etc.)

Premium and non -premium products in

each fuel category

Consumer convenience services

like ATM installed

Owned by a JV of OMC & GMC. OMC supplies liquid

fuel. GMC supplies CNG

CNG

Petrol

CNG

Petrol

Page 54: October 15-16, 2012 – New Delhificci.in/spdocument/20290/Petrotech-Knowldege-Paper-2012.pdf · Fuel Retailing 2020 : Innovation Leaders & Game Changers in Policy, Technology & Business

Retailing of LNG as a fuel can be adopted for trucks along the coastal freight corridors with supply access to LNG terminals

50 | Innovations & Game Changers in Fuel Retailing

Source: Earth & Industry Website, Yahoo Finance, Booz & Company analysis

National Highways & LNG Terminals in IndiaPresent and Planned, 2011

Completed

Under construction

To be awarded

Existing Terminals

Planned Terminals

National Highways

LNG Re -Gas Terminals

Potential to serve the western coastal freight corridor with LNG

as truck fuel and LNG re-gas

terminals as supply backbone

America’s Natural Gas Highway

• America’s Natural Gas Highway™ is a network of LNG truck fueling stations (150 stations initially) connecting major freight trucking corridors across USA

This is being developed by Clean Energy, which is the largest natural gas transportation fuel provider in USA

LNG Freight Corridor in North AmericaEXAMPLE

Page 55: October 15-16, 2012 – New Delhificci.in/spdocument/20290/Petrotech-Knowldege-Paper-2012.pdf · Fuel Retailing 2020 : Innovation Leaders & Game Changers in Policy, Technology & Business

Optimal EV infrastructure deployment requires planning at city level to identify right grade and mix of charging stations

51 | Innovations & Game Changers in Fuel Retailing

Source: GE Energy Industrial Solutions, Booz & Company analysis

Sample Deployment Plan for EV Charging Infrastructure

A mix of slow and fastcharging stations could bedeployed in public parking

Housing complexes orindividual housescould have slow

charging infrastructure

Fuel retail outlet canhave quick chargingoutlets to cater to

customers on the go

Wall mounting slow chargingstations could be deployed at

multiple points in the city

Fast charging stationscould be clubbed withsupermarket parking

Public Parking

Supermarket

Office Building

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Thus, penetration of CNG/ Electric Vehicles will steadily increase; Fuel retailers will need to address this in their business models

52 | Innovations & Game Changers in Fuel Retailing

Source: Booz & Company Analysis

Alternate Fuels

Alternate Fuels

• CNG, LNG & Electric Vehicles have higher chance of gaining prominence in India

CNG & LNG are expected to become important fuels globally with India emerging as a major adoption center

High acquisition cost driven by high battery cost is the key factor affecting adoption of PHEVs/ BEVs

Key Questions

• Should fuel retailers enter into alternate fuel retailing?

• When should the fuel retailers enter into alternate fuel retailing?

• How should fuel retailers retail alternate fuels?

• For CNG growth, additional infra. is required, as existing CNG infra. is inadequate & localized to few cities

• Further, stable and economic sources of natural gas (given domestic gas is limited) & streamlined price regulation are also required to ensure the CNG growth story

• Fuel retailers can retail CNG as part of multi-fuel outlets in urban areas given real estate constraints

CNG

• On the LNG front, several initiatives related to LNG trucks are being pursued worldwide

• Retailing of LNG as a fuel can be adopted for trucks along coastal freight corridors with LNG terminal accessLNG

• Companies like “Better Place” and Coulomb Technologies have started providing EV charging points & battery swap facilities

• Fuel retailers can get involved in EV infrastructure bearing in mind that optimal EV infrastructure deployment requires planning at city level to identify right grade and mix of charging stations

Electricity

Page 57: October 15-16, 2012 – New Delhificci.in/spdocument/20290/Petrotech-Knowldege-Paper-2012.pdf · Fuel Retailing 2020 : Innovation Leaders & Game Changers in Policy, Technology & Business

Implications for Fuel RetailingMajor Trends and Game Changers

Page 58: October 15-16, 2012 – New Delhificci.in/spdocument/20290/Petrotech-Knowldege-Paper-2012.pdf · Fuel Retailing 2020 : Innovation Leaders & Game Changers in Policy, Technology & Business

Moving forward, Indian fuel retail sector will experience certain fundamental changes in scenario 3

54 | Innovations & Game Changers in Fuel Retailing

*Liquid fuel: Petrol & Diesel

Source: Booz & Company analysis

Evolution of Indian Fuel Retail Market Scenario 3

Free Market

Emission Standards & Sustainability

Alternate Fuels

Passive price taker customer with minimal information access

Regulated pricing

Reactive relationships

Standalone outlet based retailing

Liquid fuel* retailing

Dynamic pricing

Collaborative relationships

Non-outlet based fuel retailing

Multi-fuel retailing

Current Scenario Disruptive Trends Future Scenario

Active price sensitive customer with real-time information access

Page 59: October 15-16, 2012 – New Delhificci.in/spdocument/20290/Petrotech-Knowldege-Paper-2012.pdf · Fuel Retailing 2020 : Innovation Leaders & Game Changers in Policy, Technology & Business

These fundamental changes, combined with other emerging trends, will alter the Indian fuel retail market landscape

55 | Innovations & Game Changers in Fuel Retailing

Source: Booz & Company analysis

Future Indian Fuel Retail Landscape

Low Cost Multi-Fuel Retailer withDynamic Pricing

Solar panels installed to partiallycater to fuel station's energy

requirements

Premium FuelRetailer with

focusedCustomer

Promotions

Sells OEM-FuelRetailer

Co-developed LubeLNG fuelled Truck

aided by GPS

EV Charging Pointsat Public Parking

Locations

ElectricVehicle (EV)

CNG RetrofitVehicle

f ceO fi Building

Travel Centre & OtherAmenities

Fuel Price TrackerMobile App

Page 60: October 15-16, 2012 – New Delhificci.in/spdocument/20290/Petrotech-Knowldege-Paper-2012.pdf · Fuel Retailing 2020 : Innovation Leaders & Game Changers in Policy, Technology & Business

To stay competitive in this to-be world, fuel retailers need to develop a distinct set of capabilities

56 | Innovations & Game Changers in Fuel Retailing

Source: Booz & Company analysis

Capabilities Required

Wider fuel offerings

Offering a wider range of fuels (both in type and specifications)

and developing the associated infrastructure to support it

New CapabilitiesAbility to adopt new capabilities such as dynamic pricing and

operating new outlet formats

Investment in technology

Investment in technology R&D and faster adoption of new

innovations in product quality, dispensing technology and

outlet infrastructure

Collaborations &partnerships

Collaborating with an ecosystem of players in the industry

for new product & infrastructure development

Proactive customer

relationship

Marketing campaigns and awareness programs tailored to the

Indian customers’ needs and high outlet service standards

Page 61: October 15-16, 2012 – New Delhificci.in/spdocument/20290/Petrotech-Knowldege-Paper-2012.pdf · Fuel Retailing 2020 : Innovation Leaders & Game Changers in Policy, Technology & Business

Booz & Company Overview

Page 62: October 15-16, 2012 – New Delhificci.in/spdocument/20290/Petrotech-Knowldege-Paper-2012.pdf · Fuel Retailing 2020 : Innovation Leaders & Game Changers in Policy, Technology & Business

Booz & Company is a leading global management consulting firm

58 | Innovations & Game Changers in Fuel Retailing

Booz & Company Offices Worldwide

§Buenos Aires§Rio de Janeiro§Santiago§São Paulo

§Boston§Chicago§Cleveland§Dallas§DC§Detroit

§Abu Dhabi§Beirut§Cairo§Doha §Dubai§Riyadh

§Beijing§Delhi§Hong Kong§Mumbai§Seoul§Shanghai§Taipei§Tokyo

§Atlanta §Florham Park§Houston§Los Angeles§Mexico City§New York City§Parsippany§San Francisco

§Amsterdam§Berlin§Copenhagen§Dublin§Düsseldorf§Frankfurt§Helsinki

§Rome§Stockholm§Stuttgart§Vienna§Warsaw§Zurich

§Istanbul §London§Madrid§Milan§Moscow§Munich§Paris

§Auckland§Bangkok§Brisbane§Canberra

§Jakarta§Kuala Lumpur§Melbourne§Sydney

Europe

North America

Middle East

South America

Australia, New Zealand, & Southeast Asia

Asia

• Oldest management consulting firm founded in 1914

• Top-tier provider of consulting services in both the public and private sectors around the world

• 60 offices on all six continents

• Worldwide staff of more than 3,000 people

• Private corporation, wholly owned by its 200+ officers; an ownership structure that ensures our independence

• Client list: 400 of the Fortune Top 500 companies

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Our global energy practice overview

59 | Innovations & Game Changers in Fuel Retailing

Sample Client Summary Practice areas

Service capabilities

• Broad-based expertise in Alternative

Energy, Chemicals and Process Industries, Mining and Minerals, Oil &

Gas, and Utilities & Power

• S t r a t e g y D e v e l o p m e n t a n d Performance Improvement Initiatives

• Capabi l i t ies comprehens ive ly

address:

– Strategy & Leadership

– Organisation & Change

– Operations & Logistics

– Information Technology

– S y s t e m s E n g i n e e r i n g &

Integration

– Mergers & Restructuring

– Product & Service Innovation

– Corporate Finance & Business Analysis

– P u b l i c S e c t o r M i s s i o n

Effectiveness

Expertise

Global client summary

• 52 Energy Partners and 270+ Energy

C o n s u l ta nt s wo r l d w i d e p ro v i d i n g unparalleled experience internationally

throughout the Energy value chain, many with previous leadership experience in Industry

• Functional experts in the areas of Information Technology, Operations, and

Strategic Leadership

• All of the Super Majors

• 18 out of 20 of the largest Resource Holders (NOCs/IOCs)

• 40 leading regionals in Australia, Canada,

China, Eastern Europe, Europe, and the United States

• Dominant Middle East positions, played

leading role in all large privatizations

• 25 out of 30 Utilities in the United States

• Involved in over 80% of all the mergers in the

United States

• 4 out of the top 5 Utilities in Europe

• 4 out of 5 of the largest Chemical companies

Page 64: October 15-16, 2012 – New Delhificci.in/spdocument/20290/Petrotech-Knowldege-Paper-2012.pdf · Fuel Retailing 2020 : Innovation Leaders & Game Changers in Policy, Technology & Business

Booz India brings together the local insights of its in-country staff with the firm’s global expertise across industries

60 | Innovations & Game Changers in Fuel Retailing

Factors Impacting CNG Growth

B o o z & C o m p a n y I n d i a

consultants (~60 and growing) are based in its Mumbai and

Delhi offices, working as one

team to service its clients across India

Booz & Company Consultants

are primarily locals who have studied and worked in India as

well as abroad

Booz & Company India

Core team is augmented by a network of part-time senior

professionals across India – i n c l u d i n g a c a d e m i c s ,

researchers and other eminent

professionals

Clients that include both local and foreign companies, across

large-and mid/small-cap segments

All professionals offer a broad range of experience and

business contacts

Project work across strategic and operational agendas

Select India Energy Clients

Page 65: October 15-16, 2012 – New Delhificci.in/spdocument/20290/Petrotech-Knowldege-Paper-2012.pdf · Fuel Retailing 2020 : Innovation Leaders & Game Changers in Policy, Technology & Business

Established in 1927, FICCI is the largest and oldest apex business organisation in India. Its history is closely interwoven with India’s struggle for independence, its industrialization, and its emergence as one of the most rapidly growing global economies. FICCI has contributed to this historical process by encouraging debate, articulating the private sector’s views and influencing policy.

A non-government, not-for-profit organisation, FICCI is the voice of India’s business and industry.

FICCI draws its membership from the corporate sector, both private and public, including SMEs and MNCs; FICCI enjoys an indirect

membership of over 2,50,000 companies from various regional chambers of commerce.

FICCI provides a platform for sector specific consensus building and networking and as the first port of call for Indian industry and the

international business community.

To be the thought leader for industry, its voice for policy change and its guardian for effective implementation.

To carry forward our initiatives in support of rapid, inclusive and sustainable growth that encompass health, education, livelihood,

governance and skill development.

To enhance efficiency and global competitiveness of Indian industry and to expand business opportunities both in domestic and

foreign markets through a range of specialised services and global linkages.

Our Vision

Our Mission

Page 66: October 15-16, 2012 – New Delhificci.in/spdocument/20290/Petrotech-Knowldege-Paper-2012.pdf · Fuel Retailing 2020 : Innovation Leaders & Game Changers in Policy, Technology & Business

N O T E S

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Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce & IndustryFederation House, Tansen Marg, New Delhi – 110 001E-mail : [email protected] / [email protected] : www.ficci-petrotechretail.in

Booz & Company (India) Pvt. Ltd.Level 11, Building No. 9, Tower B, DLF Cyber City Phase 3Gurgaon, HaryanaEmail : [email protected] : www.booz.com/in