oecd skills outlook - key findings from the survey of adult skills

1

ANDREAS SCHLEICHERSpecial advisor to the Secretary-General on Education Policy

Deputy Director for Education and Skills

Skilled for Life? KEY FINDINGS FROM THE SURVEY OF ADULT SKILLS

Brussels, 8 October 2013

2

Survey of Adult Skills Participating countries

2013

(**see notes A and B in the Reader’s Guide).

3

2016

Survey of Adult Skills Participating countries


5

Survey of Adult Skills in brief


5

in literacy, numeracy and problem solving in technology-rich environments.

166 thousand adults…Representing 724 million 16-65 year-olds in 24 countries/economies

Took an internationally agreed assessment…

Also surveyed were generic skills such as collaborating with others and organising one’s time, and how adults use their skills

6

Literacy

The ability to...Understand, evaluate, use and engage with written texts.

In order to..Achieve one’s goals, and to develop one’s knowledge and potential.Literacy encompasses a range of skills from..The decoding of written words and sentences The comprehension, interpretation and evaluation of complex texts.

Numeracy

The ability to…Access, use, interpret and communicate mathematical information and ideas

In order to.. Engage in and manage the mathematical demands of a range of situations in adults. Numeracy involves Managing a situation or solving a problem in a real context, by responding to mathematical content/information/ideas represented in multiple ways.

Technology Rich Problem Solving

The ability to…Use digital technology communication tools and networks to acquire and evaluate information, communicate with others and perform practical tasks.

The assessment focuses on the abilities to…Solve problems for personal, work and civic purposes by setting up appropriate goals and plans, and accessing and making use of information through computers and computer networks.

“Key information-processing skills”

Survey of Adult Skills Skills assessed

7

1968-1977 1978-1987 1998-2007 2008-20161988-1997

1972-1980 1981-1990 2001-2010 2011-20201991-2000

55-65 45-54 35-44 25-34 16-24

Age distribution of the Survey of Adult Skills

Age range:

University graduation year

High-School graduation year

8

SURVEY OF ADULT SKILLS

Skills Transform Lives and Drive EconomiesWhat people know and what they can do with what they know has a major impact on their life chances

9

Likelihood of positive social and economic outcomes among highly proficient adults

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0Literacy Numeracy

(scoring at Level 4/5 compared with those scoring at Level 1 or below)

Odds ratio

12


Inequality in skills relates to how wealth is shared in nations

13

Inequality in the distribution of income and literacy skills

1.41.451.51.551.61.651.7

0.2

0.22

0.24

0.26

0.28

0.3

0.32

0.34

0.36

0.38

0.4

0.33593915

0.26078351

0.32350417

0.25612512

0.2478

0.3150587

0.25947413

0.295440.29327448

0.336604

0.32925796

0.3150.29374042

0.2501

0.3144635

0.25663323

0.31701137

0.259326

0.37823832

0.2591987

England/N. Ireland (UK)

Literacy skills inequality (9th/1st decile)

Income inequality (Gini coefficient)

Low income inequalityLow skills inequality

Low income inequalityHigh skills inequality

High income inequalityHigh skills inequality

High income inequalityLow skills inequality

Avera

ge

Average

17


The level and distribution of skills differs markedly across countriesMuch of the variation in skills proficiency is observed within countries, so most countries have significant shares of struggling adults

SpainItaly

United StatesFranceIreland

Northern Ireland (UK)Poland

England/N. Ireland (UK)England (UK)

KoreaCyprus**

CanadaAustraliaAverage

Russian Federation³Germany

EstoniaAustria

Czech RepublicSlovak Republic

DenmarkNorwaySweden

NetherlandsFlanders (Belgium)

FinlandJapan

240 250 260 270 280 290 300

25th

Mean and .95 confidence interval for

mean 75th 95th 5th

Score

Skills of adultsNumeracy

7 points are roughly equal to one year of education

ItalySpain

FranceIrelandPoland

Northern Ireland (UK)Cyprus**

AustriaUnited States

GermanyDenmark

England/N. Ireland (UK)Korea

England (UK)AverageCanada

Slovak RepublicCzech Republic

Russian Federation³Flanders (Belgium)

EstoniaNorwaySweden

AustraliaNetherlands

FinlandJapan

240 250 260 270 280 290 300

25th


mean 75th 95th 5th

Score

Skills of adultsLiteracy

7 points are roughly equal to one year of education

ItalySpain

FranceIrelandPoland

Northern Ireland (UK)Cyprus**

AustriaUnited States

GermanyDenmark


England (UK)AverageCanada



EstoniaNorwaySweden


FinlandJapan

100 150 200 250 300 350 400

25th


mean 75th 95th 5th

Score

Skills of adultsLiteracy

30

ItalySpain

FranceIrelandPolandAustria

United StatesGermanyDenmark


AverageCanada



EstoniaNorwaySweden


FinlandJapan

80 60 40 20 0 20 40 60 80

0.70.80.80.50.0

1.84.21.5

0.41.40.31.20.90.30.60.0

5.20.4

2.20.0

1.92.3

0.01.2

Level 2 Level 1 Below Level 1 Level 3 Level 4/5 No information

%

Adults at Level 4/5 can • Perform multiple-step operations to integrate, interpret, or synthesise information from complex or lengthy texts that involve conditional and/or competing information. • Make complex inferences and appropriately apply background knowledge as well as interpret or evaluate subtle truth claims or arguments.

Adults at Level 3 can • Understand and respond appropriately to dense or lengthy texts.• Understand text structures and rhetorical devices.• Identify, interpret, or evaluate one or more pieces of information and make appropriate inferences. • Perform multi-step operations and select relevant data from competing information in order to identify and formulate responses. •Technicians, Professionals

Adults at Level 2 can• Integrate two or more pieces of information based on criteria• Compare and contrast or reason about information and make low-level inferences. • Navigate digital texts to access and identify information from various parts of a document.•Shop assistants, machine operators

Adults at Level 1 can • Read relatively short digital or print continuous, non-continuous, or mixed texts to locate a single piece of information.• Complete simple forms, understand basic vocabulary, determine the meaning of sentences, and read continuous texts with a degree of fluency.

What adults can doLiteracy

32

Evolution of employment in occupational groups defined by level of skills proficiency

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

-10

-5

0

5

10

15 Occupations with scores in or near upper half of Level 3

Occupations with scores in or near lower half of Level 3

Occupations with scores in or near upper half of Level 2

Occupations with scores in or near lower half of Level 2

Percent

36

PolandIreland

Slovak RepublicEstonia

KoreaUnited States

AustriaCzech Republic

AverageFlanders (Belgium)

JapanEngland/N. Ireland (UK)

GermanyCanada

AustraliaDenmark

NorwayNetherlands

FinlandSweden

100 80 60 40 20 0 20 40 60 80 100

Level 22 Level 32

Young adults (16-24 year-olds) All adults (16-65 year-olds)

Proficiency in problem solving in technology-rich environments

%

Adults at Level 3 can• Complete tasks involving multiple applications, a large number of steps, impasses, and the discovery and use of ad hoc commands in a novel environment. • Establish a plan to arrive at a solution and monitor its implementation as they deal with unexpected outcomes and impasses.

Adults at Level 2 can complete problems that have explicit criteria for success, a small number of applications, and several steps and operators. They can monitor progress towards a solution and handle unexpected outcomes or impasses.

40

New technologiesPercentage of workers who reported the introduction of new process or technologies in their current workplace during the previous three years that affected their work

Source: European Working Conditions Survey, 2010. See Tables A1.7a and A1.7b.

Sw

ed

en

Fin

lan

d

No

rway

Den

mark

Un

ited

Kin

gd

om

Neth

erl

an

ds

Malt

a

Lu

xem

bo

urg

Cyp

rus1

Irela

nd

Belg

ium

Germ

an

y

Ko

rea

Latv

ia

Au

str

ia

Avera

ge

Esto

nia

Cro

ati

a

Slo

vak R

ep

ub

lic

Fra

nce

Po

rtu

gal

Lit

hu

an

ia

Italy

Sp

ain

Slo

ven

ia

Czech

Rep

ub

lic

Hu

ng

ary

Gre

ece

Mo

nte

neg

ro

Maced

on

ia

Tu

rkey

Po

lan

d

Ro

man

ia

Bu

lgari

a

Alb

an

ia

20

10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60 Low-skilled clerical High-skilled clerical Low-skilled manual High-skilled manual Total

Percent

Italy

Spain

Northern Ireland (UK)

Slovak Republic

England (UK)

United States

Average

Germany

Australia

Austria

Sweden

Finland

225 275 325

Score

General (secondary)

225 275 325

Score

Vocational (second-ary)

Literacy skills of youthBy programme orientation

25th percentile


mean

75th percentile

Average score for general orientation

Average score for general orientation

Average score for vocational orientation

46


Successful integration is not simply a matter of time. In some countries, the time elapsed since immigrants arrived appears to make little difference to their proficiency in literacy and numeracy, suggesting either that the incentives to learn the language of the receiving country are not strong or that policies that encourage learning the language of the receiving country are of limited effectiveness

Foreign-language immigrants with low levels of education tend to have low skills

Irelan

d

Slova

k Republic

Czech

Republic

Australi

a

Engla

nd/N. Ir

eland (U

K)Sp

ain

Estonia

Canad

aIta

ly

Austria

Averag

e

German

y

United St

ates

Flanders

(Belgi

um)

France

DenmarkKorea

Norway

Netherlands

Finlan

d

Sweden

Japan

Poland

200

220

240

260

280

300

320

Native-born

Literacy proficiencyby immigration background

Irelan

d

Slova

k Republic

Czech

Republic

Australi

a

Engla

nd/N. Ir

eland (U

K)Sp

ain

Estonia

Canad

aIta

ly

Austria

Averag

e

German

y

United St

ates

Flanders

(Belgi

um)

France

DenmarkKorea

Norway

Netherlands

Finlan

d

Sweden

Japan

Poland

200

220

240

260

280

300

320

Native-born Foreign-born - < 5 years

172


Irelan

d

Slova

k Republic

Czech

Republic

Australi

a

Engla

nd/N. Ir

eland (U

K)Sp

ain

Estonia

Canad

aIta

ly

Austria

Averag

e

German

y

United St

ates

Flanders

(Belgi

um)

France

DenmarkKorea

Norway

Netherlands

Finlan

d

Sweden

Japan

Poland

200

220

240

260

280

300

320

Native-born Foreign-born - < 5 yearsForeign-born - 5 years and more

172


52


Some countries have made significant progress in improving skills proficiency

240 245 250 255 260 265 270 275 280 285 290 295 300Score

Literacy skills in younger and older generations

Avera

ge 1

6-2

4 y

ear-o

lds

KOREA

Germany

Norway

Avera

ge 5

5-6

5 y

ear-o

lds

Spain

Finland

France

US

UK

Adults at Level 4/5 in literacy

12.6 million16-24 year-olds scoring at Level

4/5

Estonia, 0.2%

Flanders (Belgium), 1%

Pola

nd ,

3%

Austr

alia,

3%

Germany, 4%

Ireland, 0.2%

Kore

a, 1

%

Net

herl

ands

. 2%

7.9 million55-65 year-olds scoring at Level 4/5

Denmark, 0.5%

Finla

nd, 1%

Those entering the job market Those nearing retirement

56


Formal education plays a key role in developing foundation skills…

EstoniaPoland

KoreaIrelandCanada

Slovak RepublicNorthern Ireland (UK)

JapanAustria

United StatesAverage

GermanyEngland/N. Ireland (UK)

England (UK)DenmarkAustralia

Flanders (Belgium)Finland

Czech RepublicNorwaySweden

Netherlands

70 50 30 10 10 30 50 70

Level 22 Level 3

Below upper secondary Tertiary

PercentPercent

Problem solving proficiencyby educational attainment

63


… but more education does not automatically translate into better skills

64

Mean literacy proficiency and distribution of literacy scores, by

educational attainment

Lower than upper secondary

Upper secondary

Tertiary

100 125 150 175 200 225 250 275 300 325 350 375 400

Italy

Score

25th percentile

Mean75th

percentile

Lower than upper secondary

Upper secondary

Tertiary

100 125 150 175 200 225 250 275 300 325 350 375 400

Japan

Score

Qualifications don’t alwaysequal skills

Level 2Level 1 and below

65


Success is increasingly about building skills beyond formal education

66

Level 2

15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 53 55 57 59 61 63 65240

250

260

270

280

290

300

310

Literacy skills and age

Age

Score

Literacy unadjusted

Numeracy unadjusted

Numeracy adjusted

Literacy adjusted

77

Likelihood of participating in adult education and training, by level of literacy proficiency

Cypru

s

Nor

way

Net

herla

nds

Flan

ders (B

elgiu

m)

Ital

y

Czech

Rep

ublic

Finla

nd

Irel

and

Swed

en

Japan

Engla

nd/N. I

rela

nd (UK)

Avera

ge

Unit

ed S

tate

s

Den

mar

k

Esto

nia

Austria

Polan

d

Spain

Slova

k Rep

ublic

Austra

lia

Canad

a

Korea

Ger

man

y1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8 Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4/5

Reference group: Below Level 1

Odds Ratio

Lessons from

strong performers

High quality initial education and lifelong learning• Investing in high quality

early childhood education and initial schooling, particularly for children from disadvantaged backgrounds

• Financial support targeted at disadvantage

• Opportunities and incentives to continued development of proficiency, both outside work and at the workplace.

Lessons from

strong performers

Make learning everybody’s business• Governments, employers,

workers and parents need effective and equitable arrangements as to who does and pays for what, when and how

• Recognise that individuals with poor skills are unlikely to engage in education on their own and tend to receive less employer-sponsored training .

Lessons from

strong performers

Effective links between learning and work• Emphasis on workbased

learning allows people to develop hard skills on modern equipment and soft skills through real-world experience

• Employer engagement in education and training with assistance to SMEs

• Strengthen relevance of learning, both for workplace and workers broader employability .

Lessons from

strong performers

Allow workers to adapt learning to their lives• Flexibility in content

and delivery (part-time, flexible hours, convenient location)

• Distance learning and open education resources .

Lessons from

strong performers

Identify those who can benefit from learning most• Disadvantaged adults

need to be offered and encouraged to improve their learning

• Foreign-language migrants

• Older adults• Show how adults can

benefit from improved skills, both economically and socially .

Lessons from

strong performers

Improve transparency• Easy-to-find

information about adult education activities

• Combination of easily searchable, up-to-date online information and personal guidance and counselling services

• Less educated workers tend to be less aware of the opportunities

• Recognise and certify skills proficiency .

88


Putting skills to effective useSkills will only translate into better economic and social outcomes if they are used effectively

Use of skills at work

Reading at work

Writing at work

Numeracy at work

ICT at work Problem solving at

work

1.4

1.6

1.8

2

2.2

2.4

Average

United States

Italy

Japan

United Kingdom

Most frequent use = 4

Least frequent use = 0

Ind

ex o

f use

The use of information-processing skills at work, by establishment size

Reading at work

Writing at work

Numeracy at work

ICT at work Problem solving

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

2.2

2.4

1-10 employees

11-50 employees

51-250 employees

251-1000 employees

1000+ employees

Most frequent use = 4

Least frequent use = 0

Ind

ex o

f use

Austria

Czech Republic

Germany

Italy

Average

Cyprus**

United States

UK

Denmark

Estonia

Northern Ireland

Canada

Sweden

0 10 20 30 40

Under-skilled

Over-skilled

%%

Percentage of workers who are over/under qualified over/under-skilled in literacy

35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0

Under-qualifica-tionOver-qualifica-tion

%%

99

Labour productivity and the use of reading skills at work

1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 2 2.1 2.2 2.33

3.2

3.4

3.6

3.8

4

4.2

4.4

4.6

3.89385903480046

3.94352167248753

3.83514196109219

3.39450839351136

3.97968165390196

3.25424296870549

3.87328217711172

4.021773869387254.21656219494637

3.81990771652034

3.72810016726723

3.39114704580865

4.09100566095659

4.4188406077966

3.26575941076705

3.49650756146648

3.8607297110406 3.94545778151438

4.09767235231478

3.85439389259152

Use of reading skills at work

(log

) Lab

ou

r p

rod

uct

ivit

y

Slope = 1.118 (0.407)R2 = 0.296

Adjusted predictionSlope = 1.643 (0.504)R2 = 0.371

104


Equal skills don’t always imply equal opportunitiesGender differences in the use of literacy and numeracy skills are partly due to the fact that men appear to be slightly more proficient but also that they are more commonly employed in full-time jobs, where skills are used more intensively.

105

Gender gap in wages and in the use of problem-solving skills at work

-10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 300

5

10

15

20

25

Percentage difference in the use of problem-solving skills at work (men minus women)

Perc

enta

ge d

iffere

nce

betw

een m

en’s

and

wom

en’s

wages (

men m

inus w

om

en)

Slope 0.840 (0.199)R2 = 0.472

Adjusted prediction Slope 0.068 (0.123)R2 = 0.015

Lessons from

strong performers

Guidance• Timely data about

demand for and supply of skills

• Competent personnel who have the latest labour-market information at their fingertips to steer learners

• Qualifications that are coherent and easy to interpret .

Lessons from

strong performers

Flexible labour-markets• Labour-market

arrangements that facilitate effective skill use and address skill mismatches

• Encourage mobility to optimise skill match .

Lessons from

strong performers

Help employers make better use of workers skills• Flexible work

arrangements that accommodate workers with care obligations and disabilities

• Encourage older workers to remain in the labour market

• Encourage employers to hire those who temporarily withdrew from the labour market .

Lessons from

strong performers

Help economies move up the value chain• Governments can

influence both employer competitiveness strategies and product-market strategies, which determine in what markets the company competes

• Strengthen 21st century skills

• Foster entrepreneurship.

110

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Without data, you are just another person with an opinion

…and remember:

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mailto:[email protected]

112


Additional Slides

113

Trust and literacy proficiency

Cypru

s1

Japa

n

Korea

Slov

ak R

epub

lic

Esto

nia

Spain

Flan

ders

(Belgium

)

Finlan

dIta

ly

Unite

d St

ates

Ireland

Polan

d

Canad

a

Avera

ge

Nethe

rland

s

Austria

Czech

Rep

ublic

Swed

en

Englan

d/N. I

reland

(UK)

Germ

any

Norway

Denm

ark

Australia

0

1

2

3

4

5Level 2 Level 3 Level 1 or below

Odds Ratio

Statistically significant differences are in a darker tone

Reference group: Level 4/5

114

Volunteering and literacy proficiency

Cypru

s1

Austria

Japa

n

Polan

dIta

ly

Slov

ak R

epub

lic

Spain

Ireland

Nethe

rland

s

Finlan

d

Denm

ark

Czech

Rep

ublic

Norway

Esto

nia

Avera

ge

Korea

Flan

ders

(Belgium

)

Swed

en

Germ

any

Unite

d St

ates

Englan

d/N. I

reland

(UK)

Australia

Canad

a0

1

2

3

4

5

Level 2 Level 3 Level 4/5Odds Ratio


Reference group: Level 1 or below

115

Political efficacy and literacy proficiency

Spain

Ireland

Japa

n

Finlan

d

Denm

ark

Polan

d

Austria

Korea

Slov

ak R

epub

lic

Czech

Rep

ublic

Swed

en

Flan

ders

(Belgium

)

Norway

Canad

a

Nethe

rland

s

Avera

ge

Australia

Italy

Unite

d St

ates

Cypru

s1

Englan

d/N. I

reland

(UK)

Esto

nia

Germ

any

0

1

2

3

4

5

Level 2 Level 3 Level 1 or belowOdds Ratio



116

Reported health and literacy proficiency

Italy

Japa

n

Flan

ders

(Belgium

)

Norway

Finlan

d

Ireland

Korea

Esto

nia

Slov

ak R

epub

lic

Nethe

rland

s

Cypru

s

Avera

ge

Czech

Rep

ublic

Australia

Canad

a

Polan

d

Denm

ark

Swed

en

Englan

d/N. I

reland

(UK)

Spain

Austria

Unite

d St

ates

Germ

any

0

1

2

3

4

5 Level 2 Level 1 or below

Odds Ratio



117

260 270 280 290 300 310 320450

470

490

510

530

550

570

528.28

492.06

534.31

491.58496.87

546.47

483.99

526.67

487.47

522.23524.75

505.28

479.12

492.55

516.33504.42

Ave

rage

at

26-2

8OECD average for PISA 2000

Survey of Adult Skills score

Mean literacy proficiency in PISA and in the Survey of Adult Skills (26-28 year-olds)

PISA Score

+–

++

––

–+

Mean reading score in PISA 2000 and literacy score in the Survey of Adult Skills 2012

118

260 270 280 290 300 310 320450

470

490

510

530

550

570

512.89

490.19

527.01

482.72

494.48

500.75

546.87

494.94

517.31

497.96

556.02

506.75

484.29

507.64

466.35460.83

507.31

521.99

494.65495.56 495.30


Avera

ge a

t 2

0-2

2

OECD average for PISA 2006

PISA Score


+–

+/– average in PISA 2006+/– average in Survey of Adult Skills in 2012

++

––

–+


119

260 270 280 290 300 310 320450

470

490

510

530

550

570

514.90

470.28

524.24

478.19

494.92

500.96

535.88

497.31495.64

486.05

519.86

539.27

508.40503.23

500.48

477.44

481.04

497.45

499.83

519.00

496.98

495.00

499.00


Avera

ge a

t 1

7-1

9


PISA Score



+–

++

––

–+

120

220 230 240 250 260 270 280 290 300 310 320450

470

490

510

530

550

570

533.00

515.00

533.00

498.00

514.00

536.00

490.00

503.00

457.00

557.00

547.00

499.00

470.00

476.00

510.00

493.00


Avera

ge a

t 2

6-2

8


PISA Score


+–

++

––

–+


121

220 230 240 250 260 270 280 290 300 310 320450

470

490

510

530

550

570

524.27

505.61

532.49

516.46

514.29

544.29

502.99

502.84

465.66

534.14

542.23

537.82

495.19490.24

498.18

485.11

509.05

482.88

Avera

ge a

t 2

3-2

5


PISA Score


Mean literacy proficiency in PISA and in the Survey of Adult Skills (23-25 year-olds)Mean reading score in PISA 2003 and literacy score in the Survey of Adult Skills 2012

+–

++

––

–+

122

220 230 240 250 260 270 280 290 300 310 320450

470

490

510

530

550

570

519.91

505.48

527.01

509.86513.03

514.58

548.36

503.79501.47

461.69

523.10

547.46

530.65

489.85

495.43

492.11

479.96

502.36

474.35

543.44

Mean numeracy proficiency in PISA and in the Survey of Adult Skills (20-22 year-olds)

Avera

ge a

t 2

0-2

2


PISA Score


+–

++

––

–+


123

220 230 240 250 260 270 280 290 300 310 320450

470

490

510

530

550

570

514.34

495.91

526.81

492.81

503.28512.10

540.50

512.78

487.14482.91

528.99

546.23

525.84

497.96494.80 496.68

483.49

494.24487.40

537.00

Mean numeracy proficiency in PISA and in the Survey of Adult Skills (17-19 year-olds)

Avera

ge a

t 1

7-1

9OECD average for PISA 2009

PISA Score



+–

++

––

–+

oecd skills outlook - key findings from the survey of adult skills

Economy & Finance

survey of adult skills

literacy skills inequality

range of skills

distribution of skills

skills skilled

generic skills

skills proficiency

distribution of income