open innovation cities - iftfopen innovation cities 2 around the world, cities are working to...

© 2015 Institute for the Future. All rights reserved. | SR-1801 © 2015 Institute for the Future. All rights reserved. | SR-1801

OPEN INNOVATION CITIES

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Open Innovation Cities

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Around the world, cities are working to jump-start an urban culture of open innovation.

In the corporate economy, the concept of open innovation has been a response to the mandate for continuous economic growth.

But over the next decade, cities will adopt this as a strategy to improve the quality of urban life as they cope with population growth, creating distinctive local ecosystems of social innovation and entrepreneurship alongside economic growth.

In short, open innovation will emerge as a go-to strategy for urban development and redevelopment.

© 2015 Institute for the Future. All rights reserved. | SR-1801

▶  Environmental limits on old models of development through large infrastructure projects and large-scale industrial manufacturing

▶  Growing unemployment and underemployment, which are likely to worsen as automation reaches deeper into the workforce

▶  New commercial platforms, such as Uber and Instacart, that collect vast amounts of urban data of potential value to both cities and citizens

▶  The growing role that users of urban services play in designing and co-creating those very services

WHAT‘S DRIVING THIS FORECAST


OPEN INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT

Cities around the world adopt top-down policies to support open source software and hardware as part of a post-industrial development strategy

SIGNAL: The city of Shenzhen is reinventing itself as an open manufacturing center with such initiatives as its Open Innovation Lab and Shenzhen Maker Week

SO WHAT: Local manufacturing ecosystems develop distinctive innovation zones of advantage that rapidly propagate new products and processes through global digital supply webs


URBAN MATCHMAKING

Cities create their own digital matchmaking platforms like Uber and AirBnB to support their local work economies and urban funding streams

SIGNAL: Seoul recently banned Uber, developing their own similar platform, Kakao Taxi, in partnership with the popular app Kakao Talk and local taxi companies

SO WHAT: Cities tap into the data provided by their own open urban platforms to meet policy goals such as maintaining a viable workforce and public funding streams


CITY HALL AS API

Cities increasingly organize themselves to share, manage, and facilitate the flows of data across both public and private operations. City Halls are starting to function like Application Programming Interfaces (APIs).

SIGNAL: Barcelona 5.0 is an initiative to reorient city hall from managing PITO to facilitating DIDO—that is, from products in/trash out to datain/data out

SO WHAT: Visionary cities conceive of the objects, people, and environments within their borders as nodes that can be better connected to increase social value and enhance self-sufficiency


▶  Cities increasingly partner with digital tech companies and local social inventors to kickstart solutions for a growing set of urban problems

▶  Cities create their own incubators for partnerships with innovators that emphasize equitable exchanges between the public and private sectors

▶  Urban leaders and social innovators develop crowdfunding strategies and platforms to support urban projects

▶  New legislation seeks to manage and mitigate risk in crowdfunded public projects

THE NEXT FIVE YEARS


A decade from now, the open innovation cultures of individual cities are connected in city-to-city networks that drive rapid adoption of new models for sharing data, skills, and profits. City-to-city co-production initiatives compete with traditional corporate supply chains to share profits—and capacities—across national boundaries. In cities that have depended on mass manufacturing in the past decades, workforces are redeployed and reeducated for more agile production and service models that blend private and public platforms. Cities with their own microwork platforms have experienced a measurable drop in unemployment. A few cities are exploring the frontiers of distributed collaborative organizations and open innovation election platforms as a way out of systemic corruption.

TEN-YEAR SCENARIO


LEARNING CITIES

As learning moves off school campuses and into the world of everyday life, communities will develop new tools and processes for peer-to-peer learning. Cities seeking to develop both their communities and their economies will tap this bottom-up movement to begin systematically developing themselves as learning platforms. Where school systems once defined the best neighborhoods, urban learning platforms will define the best cities. Over the next decade, these learning cities will emerge as leaders in 21st-century urban development.


▶  Millennial migration to small cities creates new kinds of urban communities

▶  Growing underemployment and the need for re-skilling or inventing alternatives to the traditional job or career path

▶  Blended models of online learning, such as finding a cohort to take an online course with

▶  Growth of home schooling across political and religious segments

▶  Growth of divided communities seeking new ways to bring their diverse populations together



NEW CITIZENSHIP CREDENTIALS

Cities create platforms to index—and offer credentials for—peer-to-peer learning experiences that solve community problems

SIGNAL: Pittsburgh is launching the Learn.pgh platform as a directory of learning experiences, with a focus on helping citizens earn credentials by addressing local challenges

SO WHAT: Urban citizens build their personal identities by building or rebuilding the communities where they live


DIVERSITY VS. DIVIDES

As communities struggle to integrate diverse populations, learning cities create opportunities for these populations to learn from one another

SIGNAL: The Human Library program has been implemented by cities worldwide, bringing library vans of diverse “people on loan” into neighborhoods to promote dialog and reduce prejudice

SO WHAT: Learning across urban silos fosters creativity and cooperation in cities, not only strengthening community but also local economies


LAYERED LEARNING

Cities use augmented reality to juxtapose present-day perspectives with those of the past, bringing history out of the classroom and into the streets

SIGNAL: Dow Day is a so-called situated documentary about a two-day protest in 1967 in Madison, Wisconsin, designed to give a first-hand experience of the event in the spot where it happened

SO WHAT: Every moment becomes a teaching moment in the city, and learning cities create the platforms to capture those moments for the benefit of their citizens


▶  Learning cities feed the continued growth of distinctive local economies that, in turn, attract more learning-oriented residents

▶  Cities implement urban learning platforms to increase resilience in the face of economic instability, widespread underemployment, and local climate-driven disasters

▶  Urban badges proliferate, creating a new ecosystem of credentials for urban work of all kinds

▶  Local Peer-to-Peer (P2P) learning statistics and flows become increasingly visible, and cities begin to monitor those patterns as measures of urban health

THE NEXT FIVE YEARS


While not ubiquitous, learning cities proliferate. With an emphasis on resilience, they adopt citywide skill-sharing as a new part of civic infrastructure. Local civic, neighborhood, and even personal projects provide not only alternative paths for urban development, but also a primary path for building a broad base of personal skills that can be converted to income streams via microwork platforms. Large companies set up recruiting relationships with cities the way they have traditionally recruited from colleges. In fact, many companies base their creative operations in those cities with strong “learning city” profiles. Urban learning platforms create a virtuous cycle as learners extend and amplify the platforms they learn from.

TEN-YEAR SCENARIO


CRIMINAL INNOVATION ZONES

Over the next decades, organized crime will continue to build a worldwide economy by exploiting the borders and boundaries between both physical and digital jurisdictions, by attacking the weak points in physical pathways as well as digital protocols, and by amplifying their crimes in physical hubs and digital platforms. But in addition, the criminal class will use its growing prowess in both physical and digital domains to innovate at the new intersections of a blended world, where physical and digital blur. By 2025, these new blends of the digital-physical world will intersect with a growing social precariat to create a perfect storm for criminal innovation.


▶  Growth of organized crime networks with extreme wealth and the ability to act outside the constraints of legitimate institutions

▶  The emergence of entire regions as criminalized zones where the state is either complicit or impotent to control organized crime

▶  An open innovation environment that makes it easy for anyone to tap the resources to quickly acquire specialized skills and prototype new systems

▶  Requirements within organized crime for extraordinary operational security that exceed what many governments can reproduce

▶  Accelerated social and technological innovation that outpaces the ability of governments to develop appropriate and enforceable rules and regulations



SMUGGLER DRONES

Custom-designed drones with illicit payloads are deployed across traditional geo-political boundaries as well as new regulatory boundaries designed to manage this rapidly evolving class of robot

SIGNAL: In January 2015, a drone carrying methamphetamine crashed in a grocery store parking lot near the U.S.-Mexico border

SO WHAT: Drone delivery of all kinds of goods creates both efficient systems of delivery for illicit goods and opportunities for criminal networks to hijack those systems


AD HOC SECURE COMMUNICATIONS

Organized crime demonstrates the viability of a secure, resilient, and distributed infrastructure for mesh radio communication in extreme environments

SIGNAL: Already in 2006, the Zeta drug cartel had built out an undercover solar-powered, computerized mesh radio infrastructure through most of Mexico and parts of Guatemala

SO WHAT: Locally maintained secure and resilient infrastructures for communication begin to permeate impoverished regions around the world via criminal networks


AUTONOMOUS CRIMINAL VEHICLES

Smart, self-driving vehicles for land, air, and water become innovation zones for criminal networks that need to protect goods and lives under dangerous conditions

SIGNAL: Drug runners in the Caribbean build sophisticated semi-submersible smart submarines that can self-sink when pursued—with a price tag of about $1million

SO WHAT: Criminal networks create small-scale smart transportation systems, often at a fraction of the cost of traditional military contractors


▶  Blended physical-digital spaces become a frontier for criminal innovation with everything from attacks on smart objects to facial recognition for targeting victims in crowds

▶  Criminal organizations lead the way in innovating crypto-frameworks for large-scale distributed operations

▶  Criminal operations use facial recognition and other biometrics to target victims in large crowded venues

▶  Stricter regulations and enforcement continue to create new borders and boundaries for criminal arbitrage

THE NEXT FIVE YEARS


Ten years from now, organized crime takes advantage of its proficiencies in cross-jurisdictional arbitrage and its so-called dark webs of digital communication to amplify criminal activity in the hot spots of blended physical-digital life. Tapping efficient distributed infrastructures for both innovation and dissemination of innovation, organized crime grows in scale and scope. New classes of crimes emerge as society sets new rules for acceptable behavior in blended physical-digital space, ranging from rules for wearing augmented reality lenses in public settings to hacking smart connected objects. In fact, it’s the proliferation of new rules that creates many of the opportunities for new crimes as society figures out how to manage these vulnerable new realities.

TEN-YEAR SCENARIO


MICROBIAL HEALTH ECONOMY

Over the next decade, humans will seek well-being at the scale of microbes. Forsaking germophobia for germophilia, we will invent new microbial products for everything from cosmetics and mood enhancement to soil maintenance. Environmental microbial science will open the door to the design of public and private spaces for microbial health. New biomolecular tools will seek to control the behavior of microbes in and around us. Although our inventive imagination will outpace microbial science, the next decade will lay the tracks for new microbiotic lifestyles and a new microbiotic medicine.


▶  Rapidly declining costs for the genetic sequencing of the estimated tens of millions of bacterial species

▶  Rise of superbugs that are resistant to traditional antibiotic strategies

▶  Growing understanding of how and when communities of bacteria act in concert to benefit human well-being

▶  Growth of bioprinting technologies for inventing and producing new microbes or molecules that interact with microbes


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MICROBIOTIC LIFESTYLES

A backlash against anti-bacterial cleaning and personal care products spawns a lifestyle movement focused on cultivating healthy personal microbiomes

SIGNAL: AOBiome’s AO+ mist claims to be the first live probiotic for the skin, promising to restore and maintain beneficial bacteria on the skin

SO WHAT: A vanguard of offerings range from minimalist, do-no-harm products to personalized microbial solutions for individual health and well-being

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PROBIOTIC MOOD MEDS

Scientific links between personal microbial ecologies and psychological or behavioral problems establish new psychotherapies and cognitive augmentation strategies

SIGNAL: Building on early studies that show probiotics can reduce anxiety, a 2014 Oxford study found that ingesting prebiotics can suppress stress and increase a positive focus on life

SO WHAT: The medical community and regulatory agencies collide with microbial entrepreneurs and early adopters as the basic premises of mental health begin to shift

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ANTI-ANTI-MICROBIAL LAWS

The simplicity of commercial sterilization is replaced by a more nuanced strategy of out-competing pathogens with helpful bacteria

SIGNAL: In 2014, Minnesota became the first state to ban the anti-microbial ingredient triclosan, which is used in soaps, shampoos, and toothpastes

SO WHAT: In supply chains, work environments, and homes, microbial diversity becomes a valued asset for both public health and economic growth

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▶  A wave of disillusionment with initial microbial products and services gives rise to more scientifically grounded innovations

▶  Both corporate marketing and social movements such as integrative health and positive psychology will drive public debates as extreme as those over vaccination

▶  Personal microbial signatures emerge as a secure but ever-changing password for bio-identification

▶  Synthetic biology and biometric security entangles microbial health strategies in complex policy issues of IP, privacy, GMOs, and novel disease outbreaks

THE NEXT FIVE YEARS

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After a decade of early adopters and polarized debates, in 2025 microbiotic lifestyles have reached an inflection point where public health officials, regulatory agencies and consumer opinion all begin a rapid shift to embrace microbial diversity and reject germophobic strategies for health, disease, and overall well-being. The shift, however, extends well beyond replacing antibiotics with probiotics and prebiotics: we’re rethinking the basics of how our bodies do their work, with growing attention to the chronobiology of bacteria, to specific molecules that activate and block bacterial functions, and to synthetic versions of those molecules (or even entire bacteria), all of which are rapidly changing the landscape of health and well-being products.

TEN-YEAR SCENARIO

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