operational air quality and source contribution forecasting in georgia georgia institute of...
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Operational Air Quality and Source Contribution Forecasting in Georgia
Georgia Institute of Technology
Yongtao Hu1, M. Talat Odman1, Michael E. Chang2 and Armistead G. Russell1
1School of Civil & Environmental Engineering,2Brook Byers Institute of Sustainable Systems
Georgia Institute of Technology
10th Annual CMAS Conference, October 24th, 2010
Outline
Local Air Quality Forecasting in Georgia
The Hi-Res air quality forecasting system
Evolution of Hi-Res during 2006-2011
Met performance and O3 and PM2.5 performance for metro Atlanta
New SOA module and its impact on PM2.5 performance
Pilot Source Contribution Forecasting
Georgia Institute of Technology
Local Forecasting: How it works in Georgia
A forecasting panel with 5-7 local expert members
•air quality researchers, modelers, meteorologists, etc.
“Voting” through a decision making online system
•the consensus of the panel will be the “ensemble” forecasts
Base their “opinion” on multiple available resources
•NOAA O3 guidance, Statistical model results, Weather forecasts
•Hi-Res O3 and PM2.5 forecasts
•Experiences
Broadcast to the public
•Website: http://www.gaepd.org/air/smogforecast/ and AirNOW
•Smog alert through highway traffic information system
Georgia Institute of Technology
Georgia Institute of Technology
Hi-Res: forecasting ozone and PM2.5 at a 4-km resolution for metro areas
in Georgia
CMAQ
SMOKE
Emission Inventory
WRF
NAM 84-hr Forecast
Forecast Product
MeteorologyEmissions
Air Quality
CMAQ
SMOKE
Emission Inventory
WRF
NAM 84-hr Forecast
Forecast Product CMAQCMAQ
SMOKE
Emission Inventory
SMOKESMOKE
Emission InventoryEmission Inventory
WRF
NAM 84-hr Forecast
WRFWRF
NAM 84-hr Forecast NAM 84-hr Forecast
Forecast Product Forecast Product
MeteorologyEmissions
Air Quality
Hi-Res Air Quality Forecasting SystemServing Metro-Atlanta Area since 2006
Hi-Res Modeling Domains
Hi-Res Cycle
12Z 27Z
ramp up 36-12- & 4-km forecasts
78Z
00Z 15Z
ramp up 36-12- & 4-km forecasts
66Z
7pm 0am0am0am0amForecast Day 2
R&R&R&S
Forecast Day 1Forecast Day 2Forecast Day 2Forecast Day 2
Cycle 1
Cycle 2
OperationForecast Day 1Forecast Day 1Forecast Day 1
12Z 27Z
ramp up 36-12- & 4-km forecasts
712Z 27Z
ramp up 36-12- & 4-km forecasts
7
00Z 15Z
ramp up 36-12- & 4-km forecasts
66Z
0am0am0am0amForecast Day 2
R&R&R&S1 F1&R1 R2
Forecast Day 1Forecast Day 2Forecast Day 2
S2 F2
Cycle 1
Cycle 2
OperationForecast Day 1Forecast Day 1
&S&S&S
Forecast Time (UTC)
Computer Time (EST)
Forecast Day 1Forecast Day 1Forecast Day 1 Forecast Day 2Forecast Day 2Forecast Day 2
12Z 27Z
ramp up 36-12- & 4-km forecasts
78Z12Z 27Z
ramp up 36-12- & 4-km forecasts
78Z
00Z 15Z
ramp up 36-12- & 4-km forecasts
66Z
7pm 0am0am0am0amForecast Day 2
R&R&R&S
Forecast Day 1Forecast Day 2Forecast Day 2Forecast Day 2
Cycle 1
Cycle 2
OperationForecast Day 1Forecast Day 1Forecast Day 1
12Z 27Z
ramp up 36-12- & 4-km forecasts
712Z 27Z
ramp up 36-12- & 4-km forecasts
7
00Z 15Z
ramp up 36-12- & 4-km forecasts
66Z
0am0am0am0amForecast Day 2
R&R&R&S1 F1&R1 R2
Forecast Day 1Forecast Day 2Forecast Day 2
S2 F2
Cycle 1
Cycle 2
OperationForecast Day 1Forecast Day 1
&S&S&S
Forecast Time (UTC)
Computer Time (EST)
Forecast Day 1Forecast Day 1Forecast Day 1 Forecast Day 2Forecast Day 2Forecast Day 2
36-km (148x112)
12-km (123x138)
4-km (123x123)
36-km (148x112)
12-km (123x138)
4-km (123x123)
Georgia Institute of Technology
Hi-Res Forecast Products“Single Value” Report: tomorrow’s AQI, ozone and PM2.5 by metro area in Georgia
Air Quality Forecasts: AQI, ozone and PM2.5, 48-hrs spatial plots and station profiles
Meteorological Forecasts: precipitation, temperature and winds, 48-hrs spatial plots and station profiles
Performance Evaluation: time series comparison and scatter plots for the previous daySnapshots from Hi-Res homepage:
http://forecast.ce.gatech.edu
Evolution of Hi-Res during 2006-2011Updated to latest release of WRF each year before the ozone season.
•WRF 2.1, 2.2, 3.0, 3.1, 3.2 and 3.3
CMAQ is typically one version behind.
•CMAQ 4.6 with Georgia Tech extensions
Projected NEI to current year in the very beginning of each year.
Updated forecast products website each year before ozone season.
Switched from single-cycle forecasting to two-cycles in 2008.
Enlarged 4-km domain to cover the entire state of Georgia in 2009.
Introduced Georgia Tech’s new SOA module in 2009.
Enlarged 36-km domain to cover the CONUS and enlarged 12-km domain to cover the eastern US in 2011.
In 2011 switched landuse data from old USGS data to new MODIS data in WRF, to reflect recent changes in land cover.
36-km (72x72)
4-km (99x78)
12-km (72x72)
Current 4-km (123x123)
36-km (72x72)
4-km (99x78)
12-km (72x72)
Current 4-km (123x123)
36-km (148x112)
12-km (123x138)
4-km (123x123)
36-km (148x112)
12-km (123x138)
4-km (123x123)
2006-2010 Current
Enlarged Modeling Domains
Georgia Institute of Technology
Ambient Monitoring Sites for Performance Evaluation in Atlanta
Metro
Confederate AveAtlanta
Kennesaw
DouglasvilleConyers
Newnan
South DeKalb
McDonoughFayetteville
Walton
Peachtree City
Yorkville
Gwinnet
Atlanta
NE Atlanta
West Atlanta
NWS MetSLAMS PM2.5
SLAMS O3
Confederate AveAtlanta
Kennesaw
DouglasvilleConyers
Newnan
South DeKalb
McDonoughFayetteville
Walton
Peachtree City
Yorkville
Gwinnet
Atlanta
NE Atlanta
West Atlanta
NWS MetSLAMS PM2.5
SLAMS O3
Met Performance
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20
Forecast Humidity at 2m (h/kg)
Ob
serv
ed H
um
idit
y at
2m
(g
/kg
)
290
295
300
305
310
315
290 295 300 305 310 315
Forecast Daily Hi Temp at 2m (K)
Ob
serv
ed D
aily
Hi
Tem
p a
t 2m
(K
)
Georgia Institute of Technology
Overall 2006-2011 Performance (Ozone Season): Atlanta Metro
Temperature Humidity
MB -0.39K
ME 1.55K
MB -0.68g/kg
ME 1.19g/kg
2006
290
295
300
305
310
315
5/1/2006 5/31/2006 6/30/2006 7/30/2006 8/29/2006 9/28/2006
Date
Dail
y H
i T
em
p a
t 2m
(K
)
Georgia Institute of Technology
2011
285
290
295
300
305
310
315
05/01/11 05/21/11 06/10/11 06/30/11 07/20/11 08/09/11 08/29/11 09/18/11
Date
Daily H
i T
em
p a
t 2m
(K
)
2008
290
295
300
305
310
315
5/1/2008 5/21/2008 6/10/2008 6/30/2008 7/20/2008 8/9/2008 8/29/2008 9/18/2008
Date
Dail
y H
i T
em
p a
t 2m
(K)
Forecast vs. Observed Temperature2007
290
295
300
305
310
315
5/1/2007 5/21/2007 6/10/2007 6/30/2007 7/20/2007 8/9/2007 8/29/2007 9/18/2007
Date
Da
ily
Hi T
em
p 2
m (
K)
2009
290
295
300
305
310
315
5/1/2009 5/21/2009 6/10/2009 6/30/2009 7/20/2009 8/9/2009 8/29/2009 9/18/2009
DateD
aily H
i T
em
p a
t 2m
(K
)
MB -1.16K
ME 1.90K
MB -0.80
K
ME 1.94K
MB 0.37K
ME 1.47K
2010
290
295
300
305
310
315
05/01/10 05/21/10 06/10/10 06/30/10 07/20/10 08/09/10 08/29/10 09/18/10
Date
Daily H
i T
em
p a
t 2m
(K
)
MB -0.19K
ME 1.15K
MB -0.05K
ME 1.29K
MB 0.50K
ME 1.57K
Georgia Institute of Technology
Forecast vs. Observed Humidity2007
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
5/1/2007 5/21/2007 6/10/2007 6/30/2007 7/20/2007 8/9/2007 8/29/2007 9/18/2007
Date
Da
ily
Av
g H
um
idit
y a
t 2
m (
g/k
g)
2008
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
5/1/2008 5/21/2008 6/10/2008 6/30/2008 7/20/2008 8/9/2008 8/29/2008 9/18/2008
Date
Dail
y A
vg
Hu
mid
ity
at
2m
(g
/kg
)
2009
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
5/1/2009 5/21/2009 6/10/2009 6/30/2009 7/20/2009 8/9/2009 8/29/2009 9/18/2009
Date
Dail
y A
vg
Hu
mid
ity a
t 2m
(g
/kg
)
MB -0.59g/kg
ME 1.22g/kg
MB -0.89g/kg
ME 1.33g/kgMB -0.36g/kg
ME 0.96g/kg
2010
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
05/01/10 05/21/10 06/10/10 06/30/10 07/20/10 08/09/10 08/29/10 09/18/10
Date
Dail
y A
vg
Hu
mid
ity a
t 2m
(g
/kg
)
MB -0.73g/kg
ME 1.03g/kg
2006
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
5/1/2006 5/21/2006 6/10/2006 6/30/2006 7/20/2006 8/9/2006 8/29/2006 9/18/2006
Date
Dail
y A
vg
Hu
mid
ity
at
2m
(g
/kg
)
MB -0.74g/kg
ME 1.39g/kg
2011
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
05/01/11 05/21/11 06/10/11 06/30/11 07/20/11 08/09/11 08/29/11 09/18/11
Date
Dail
y A
vg
Hu
mid
ity a
t 2m
(g
/kg
)
MB -0.73g/kg
ME 1.22g/kg
Air Quality Performance Metrics
N
kok
ok
mk
c
cc
N 1
1MNB
N
kok
ok
mk
c
cc
N 1
1MNE
False Alarms
Hits
Correct Nonevents
MissedExceedenc
es
For
ecas
t
Observation
NAAQS
NA
AQ
S
Georgia Institute of Technology
Overall 2006-2011 Performance (Ozone Season): Atlanta Metro
Ozone PM2.5
MNB 17%
MNE 23%
MNB -17%
MNE 32%
0
75
150
0 75 150
Obs.
4-km
134 146
52558
0.0
35.0
70.0
0 35 70
Obs.4-
km
0 0
792
52
Ozone Performance
Georgia Institute of Technology0
20
40
60
80
100
120
May-10 Jun-10 Jul-10 Aug-10 Sep-10
O3
(pp
b)
Obs 4-km
Forecast vs. Observed O3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
May-07 Jun-07 Jul-07 Aug-07 Sep-07
O3 (p
pb
)
Obs 4-km
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
May-08 Jun-08 Jul-08 Aug-08 Sep-08
O3
(pp
b)
Obs 4-km
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
May-09 Jun-09 Jul-09 Aug-09 Sep-09
O3
(pp
b)
Obs 4-km
2007
2010
20092008
MNB 14%
MNE 18%
MNB 8.5%
MNE 19%
MNB 17%
MNE 23%
MNB 28%
MNE 30%
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
May-01 Jun-01 Jul-01 Aug-01 Sep-01
O3 (
pp
b)
Obs. 4-km
2006 MNB 11%
MNE 29%
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11
O3
(pp
b)
Obs 4-km
2011 MNB 18%
MNE 21%
2009 O3 Performance: Hi-Res vs. GA EPD’s
Our 4-km Forecast EPD Ensemble Forecast
MNB 28%
MNE 30%MNB 13%
MNE 21%
0
75
150
0 75 150
Obs.
4-km
24 7
1084
0
75
150
0 75 150
Obs.E
PD
7 6
1255
2010 O3 Performance: Hi-Res vs. GA EPD’s
Our 4-km Forecast EPD Ensemble Forecast
MNB 14%
MNE 18%
MNB 9%
MNE 17%
0
75
150
0 75 150
Obs.
4-km
14 12
10511
0
75
150
0 75 150
Obs.E
PD
16 10
10412
2011 O3 Performance: Hi-Res vs. GA EPD’s
Our 4-km Forecast EPD Ensemble Forecast
MNB 18%
MNE 21%
MNB 8%
MNE 16%
0
75
150
0 75 150
Obs.
4-km
26 36
7610
0
75
150
0 75 150
Obs.
EP
D
13 32
9112
PM2.5 Performance
Summer
Georgia Institute of Technology0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
May-10 Jun-10 Jul-10 Aug-10 Sep-10
PM
2.5
(u
g/m
3)
Obs 4-km
Forecast vs. Observed PM2.5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
May-07 Jun-07 Jul-07 Aug-07 Sep-07
O3 (p
pb
)
Obs 4-km
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
May-08 Jun-08 Jul-08 Aug-08 Sep-08
O3
(pp
b)
Obs 4-km
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
May-09 Jun-09 Jul-09 Aug-09 Sep-09
PM
2.5
(u
g/m
3)
Obs 4-km
2007
2008 2009
2010
MNB -37%
MNE 44%
MNB -38%
MNE 42%
MNB 8%
MNE 25%
MNB 4%
MNE 21%
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11
PM
2.5
(u
g/m
3)
Obs 4-km
2011MNB -2%
MNE 25%
2006
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
45.0
May-01 Jun-01 Jul-01 Aug-01 Sep-01
PM
2.5 (m g
/m3)
Obs. 4-km
MNB -38%
MNE 43%
2009 PM2.5 Performance: 4-km vs. GA EPD’s
Our 4-km Forecast EPD Ensemble Forecast
MNB 8%
MNE 25%
MNB 11%
MNE 24%
0
35
70
0 35 70
Obs.
4-km
0 0
129
3
0
35
70
0 35 70
Obs.E
PD
0 0
129
3
2010 PM2.5 Performance: 4-km vs. GA EPD’s
Our 4-km Forecast EPD Ensemble Forecast
MNB 4%
MNE 21%
MNB 14%
MNE 30%
0
35
70
0 35 70
Obs.
4-km
0 0
138
0
0
35
70
0 35 70
Obs.E
PD
0 0
138
0
2011 PM2.5 Performance: 4-km vs. GA EPD’s
Our 4-km Forecast EPD Ensemble Forecast
MNB -2%
MNE 25%MNB 7%
MNE 24%
0
35
70
0 35 70
Obs.
4-km
0 0
141
5
0
35
70
0 35 70
Obs.
EP
D
1 2
141
3
Winter
Forecasted vs. Observed PM2.5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Oct-07 Nov-07 Dec-07 Jan-08 Feb-08 Mar-08
O3
(pp
b)
Obs 4-km
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Oct-08 Nov-08 Dec-08 Jan-09 Feb-09 Mar-09
O3
(pp
b)
Obs 4-km
2007
2009
2008
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Oct-09 Nov-09 Dec-09 Jan-10 Feb-10 Mar-10 Apr-10
PM
2.5
(ug
/m3)
Obs 4-km
2010
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11
PM
2.5
(ug
/m3)
Obs 4-km
A New SOA Module (Baek, J., Georgia Tech, 2009)
•SOA partitioned from anthropogenic VOCs’ oxidations (8 SVOCs)•From monoterpenes (2 SVOCs)•From isoprene (2 SVOCs added)•From sesquiterpenes (1 SVOC added, gas phase oxidation reactions added for α-caryphyllene, β-humulene, and other sesquiterpenes) •Multigenerational oxidation of all semi-volatile organic carbons (SVOCs) added
Included processes: SOA species in CMAQ:
•AORGAJ and AORGAI
•AORGBJ and AORGBI•AORGBISJ and AORGBISI •AORGBSQJ and AORGBSQI
•AORGAGJ and AORGAGI
HSVOC LSVOC AerosolMultigenerational Oxidation : +OH,+O3 +OH,+O3
Forecast vs. Observed OC at South DeKalb
Ozone Season May-September
0
4
8
12
16
0 4 8 12 16
Observed (ug m-3)
Fo
reca
st (
ug
m-3
)
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
5/1/2010 5/21/2010 6/10/2010 6/30/2010 7/20/2010 8/9/2010 8/29/2010 9/18/2010
Date
Org
anic
Car
bo
n P
M2.
5
forecast obs
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
5/1/2009 5/21/2009 6/10/2009 6/30/2009 7/20/2009 8/9/2009 8/29/2009 9/18/2009
Date
Org
anic
Car
bo
n P
M2.
5
forecast obs
2009
2010
Source Contribution Forecasting in Pilot Operation
Source contribution forecasts for ozone and PM2.5.
•Traffic, Power plants and others such as prescribed fires (needs additional efforts).
Extra information on top of ozone and PM2.5 concentration forecasts.
•Providing quantitative information on specific source contributions
•Alerting on specific source impacts
•To help public targeting actions to prevent pollution events
Using forward sensitivity tool DDM3D in CMAQ to calculate first order sensitivity coefficients
•Interpret such sensitivities of ozone and PM2.5 concentrations to total emissions from specific sources as their contributions
Challenges in operational forecasting
•Computationally expensive, but doable
•Instability in calculation
Preliminary Source Contribution Forecasts: Traffic and Power Plants
Impacts 2009
2010
Georgia Institute of Technology
Summary• 2006-2011 Temperature and humidity
performance in May-September are good.– Daily high temperature bias is -0.39K and error is 1.55K– Daily average humidity bias is and error is -0.68g/kg and
1.19g/kg
• 2006-2011 Ozone forecasts are good.– Overall bias is +17% and error is 23%
• 2006-2011 PM2.5 forecasts are not very accurate. – May-September bias is -17% and error is 32%
• The new SOA module helped much better 2009-2011 PM2.5 performances in May-September– Bias is +8% and error is 25% for 2009– Bias is +4% and error is 21% for 2010– Bias is -2% and error is 25% for 2011
• Preliminary source contribution forecasting products.
Acknowledgements
We thank Georgia EPD for funding the Hi-Res forecasts, Our former group member Dr. Jaemeen Baek for the new SOA module, and
Dr. Carlos Cardelino of Georgia Tech for team forecasts.