operational monitoring and forecasting in the aegean sea kostas nittis
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Operational Monitoring and Forecasting in the Aegean Sea Kostas Nittis National Centre for Marine Research, Athens, Greece. Review of existing monitoring and forecasting systems Present capabilities Problems - Limitations Perspectives. Overview. Research efforts on O.O. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Operational Monitoring and Operational Monitoring and Forecasting in the Aegean SeaForecasting in the Aegean Sea
Kostas NittisKostas Nittis National Centre for Marine Research, Athens, GreeceNational Centre for Marine Research, Athens, Greece
Review of existing monitoring and forecasting systems
Present capabilities
Problems - Limitations
Perspectives
OverviewOverview
Research efforts on O.O. Research efforts on O.O.
POSEIDON Project (1997-2000, 14.1 Meuro EFTA+HMNE)Integrated monitoring and forecasting system: real-time data from buoy network, daily forecasts, end-user products Partners: NCMR, ΟCEANOR, UoA, UoT, NTUAOperational since May 2000
MFS (1998-2001, 2002-2004): Development of multiparametric M3A station, VOS Measurements, High resolution regional and coastal modelsMARSAIS (2001-2003): Synergy between SAR and buoy data, Validation of Algorithms, Detection and forecasting of oil-spillsFerryBox (2002-2005): Implementation of a European network for FerryBox measurements, Operational phase: 2002-2003MAMA (2002-2004): Coordination on Mediterranean Scale, Capacity building, MERSEA (2002-2003): Towards GMES (2008)
Height: 7.9 m Width: 1.75 m Weight: 900 kgr Energy: Solar
panels + batteries Communication:
Imarsat C, GSM every 3 hours
The POSEIDON buoy networkThe POSEIDON buoy network
SeaWatch BuoysSeaWatch BuoysMeteorological SensorsAir TemperatureAtm. PressureWind Speed/Direction“Blue” Sensors TemperatureSalinity CurrentWaves“Green” SensorsDissolved OxygenChlorophyll-A Light Attenuation Radioactivity
End-user productsEnd-user products
POSEIDON Products On-line data (“meteo”, “blue”
and “green”) Processed Data (statistics
etc.) Meteorological Forecasts Sea-State Forecasts (waves) Hydrodynamic model
Forecasts (currents, T,S) Dispersion of Pollutants (oil-
spills) Near-shore wave conditions
www.poseidon.ncmr.gr
Surface circulation characteristics Surface circulation characteristics Nittis et al., GAOS 2002
High frequency variabilityHigh frequency variability
Nittis et al., MPB 2001
Tracing of Water MassesTracing of Water MassesNittis et al., GAOS 2002
Spring bloom monitoringSpring bloom monitoring
The The Μ3ΑΜ3Α System System
M3A MeasurementsM3A Measurements
M3A MeasurementsM3A Measurements
Limiting factors: Bio-foulingLimiting factors: Bio-fouling
Ferry Box SystemsFerry Box Systems
Based on DAUT Based on DAUT model (2d generation)model (2d generation)Resolution: 5kmResolution: 5kmBuoy data Buoy data assimilationassimilationProducts : Height, Products : Height, Direction and Period Direction and Period fieldsfields
Based on POMBased on POMResolution: 5km, Resolution: 5km, 31lev31levRivers and Rivers and Dardanelles outflow Dardanelles outflow simulation simulation PProducts: 3-D roducts: 3-D Velocity, Temperature Velocity, Temperature and Salinity fieldsand Salinity fields
Based on ETA LAMBased on ETA LAMResolution: 20/10 kmResolution: 20/10 kmProducts: Products: WindWind, , Air Air temperaturetemperature, , Relative Relative HumidityHumidity, , PrecipitationPrecipitation, , Cloud coverCloud cover, , AtmAtm.. PressurePressure, , Fog, Fog, … …
Operational Models: POSEIDON (1Operational Models: POSEIDON (1stst generation) generation)
New generation Wave Model (WAM)New generation Wave Model (WAM)
Mediterranean Wave ModelBased on : WAMResolution : 0.25 o
Forced by the coarse (20km) atmospheric model
Aegean Wave ModelNested to Mediterranean modelResolution : 0.05 o
Forced by the fine (10km) atmospheric model
New Generation HD ModelNew Generation HD Model
Eastern Mediterranean ModelBased on : POMResolution : 10 kmVertical Res. : 19 sigma levelsForced by the coarse (20km) atmospheric model Dardanelle's (open boundary) / Rivers Parameterisation
Aegean Sea ModelNested to EMED modelResolution : 5 kmVertical Res. : 31 σ-levelsForced by the fine (10km) atmospheric modelBoundary values updated every 1h (T, S, U, V, W, Z + free radiation)
Initial + boundary values: MODB12 years climatology, 95-99 ECMWF analysis, operational 1999-now Interactive estimation of fluxes (heat-water)
Forecasting Skill Evaluation a) Buoy dataForecasting Skill Evaluation a) Buoy data
BIAS RMSE BIASscore
Current speed
(cm/sec)
Temp. (oC)
Current speed
(cm/sec)
Temp. (oC)
Current speed (%)
Temp. (%)
Lesvos -2.5 -0,4 5,3 0.5 105.8 97.5 Mykonos -7.3 -0.1 11.7 0.3 79.4 100.2 Santorini -1.4 -0.4 6.0 0.4 117.3 97.5 Crete -3.4 -0.2 5.6 0.3 88.5 98.5
Model Against Buoy data Atmospheric Model Statistics
BIAS RMSE BIASscore
Wind speed
(m/sec)
Temp. (oC)
Wind speed
(m/sec)
Temp. (oC)
Wind speed (%)
Temp. (%)
Lesvos -1.38 0.35 2.31 2.11 89.53 100.46 Mykonos -2.11 0.45 3.21 2.95 81.29 101.81 Santorini -0.75 0.23 2.23 1.55 97.00 100.58 Crete -1.25 0.42 2.20 1.84 92.54 102.46
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M: 24 hours forecastsO: Buoy observations
Forecasting Skill Evaluation b) XBT dataForecasting Skill Evaluation b) XBT data
2 4 2 5 2 6 2 7 2 8
Longitude, degrees E
-500
-400
-300
-200
-100
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Dep
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PIRALEX-4, 19 Decem ber 1999
XBT
Model
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Forecasting Skill Eval. c) mesoscale featuresForecasting Skill Eval. c) mesoscale features
SST 1 October 2000: 24h forecast
Forecasted Sea Level Elevation during Summer 2000
AVHRR SST
POSEIDON Operational Oil-spill ModelPOSEIDON Operational Oil-spill Model
Based on: PARCEL model (Koutitas 1988, Johansen 1985)
Processes: •Evaporation (Stiver et al. 1989)•Emulsification (Rasmussen 1985)•Beaching and sedimentation (Gundlach 1987)Advection – diffusion:•3-D current field•Horizontal and vertical mixing coefficients from hydrodynamic model (Smagorinsky, Mellor-Yamada)•Wave field
Additional data:• Date and the position of the “event” • Initial volume of the pollutant •Density of the different elements•Evacuation time(Density of evaporation and emulsification, retention time)
Products:•Oil Concentration•Beaching •Evaporation, emulsification
Pollani et al., MPB 2000
Synergy with SAR data: oSynergy with SAR data: oil slickil slicks detections detection
Synthetic Aperture Radar:Synthetic Aperture Radar:•ERS1/2, RADARSAT, ENVISAT ERS1/2, RADARSAT, ENVISAT •0,056 0,056 μμm, 5,3 GHzm, 5,3 GHz•Repeat cycle: 35 daysRepeat cycle: 35 days•Resolution: 30mResolution: 30m•Swath width: 100Swath width: 100 km (400km km (400km Envisat)Envisat)
Towards forecasting in Coastal AreasTowards forecasting in Coastal Areas
Saronikos Gulf Model
Resolution : 1.8 km
Vertical Res. : 16 σ-levels
Forced by the fine (10km) atmospheric model
Nested to Aegean 5km model: Initial + boundary conditions
Boundary values updated every 1h (T, S, U, V, W, Z + free radiation)
Next steps ?Next steps ?
Extend the current observing capacityDeeper layers (0-500 / 0-1000m)New platforms (eg HF radars)Operational RS products
Continue / Intensify efforts in coastal areas Coordinate efforts with pan-european
monitoring and forecasting efforts – Towards GMES
(GMES Forum, EuroGOOS conference 3-6 December, Athens)