operations center , nps, monterey, ca
DESCRIPTION
THORPEX-Pacific Asian Regional Campaign (T-PARC) and Tropical Cyclone Structure-08 Experiment (TCS-08). Driftsonde center,. Okinawa. Japan. Operations center , NPS, Monterey, CA. Aircraft locations, and aircraft operations centers. Taiwan. Driftsonde Balloon release, Hawaii. Guam. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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Operations center, NPS, Monterey, CA
Driftsonde center,
Driftsonde Balloon release,Hawaii
Aircraft locations, and
aircraft operations centers
Guam
Japan
Taiwan
Okinawa
THORPEX-Pacific Asian Regional Campaign (T-PARC)and
Tropical Cyclone Structure-08 Experiment (TCS-08)
• 9 participating nations– Canada, China, U.K., France, Germany, Japan,
South Korea, Taiwan, United States• Over 500 aircraft mission flight hours
– 216 C-130, 179 P-3, 83 Falcon, 37 DOTSTAR• 76 missions
– 25 Falcon, 23 C-130, 21 P-3, 7 DOTSTAR
• 7 airfields– Andersen AFB, Guam; NAF Atsugi, Japan; Kadena
AFB, Okinawa, Japan; Taiwan, Yokota AFB, Japan; MCAS Iwakuni, Japan; Misawa AB, Japan
• 11 tropical circulation systems– 4 typhoons, 1 TD, 1 ex-TS, 5 others
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Firsts• First operation of the Driftsonde in the Pacific
– Launch from Hawaii– Dropsonde data retrieved and sent to GTS for use in
operational numerical weather forecasting models
• First use of the ELDORA radar in typhoons over the western North Pacific flight operations in:– Cloud clusters– Developing tropical cyclones– Mature tropical cyclones– Tropical cyclones undergoing extratropical transition
• First buoy drop in front of a WPAC TC– Two TCs– First time a category 5 TC passed over buoys dropped in its path
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Firsts• First operation of WC-130Js at 31,000 ft altitude except
when penetrating a mature TC– Dropped sondes and AXBTs from high altitude– Timed with passage of polar-orbiting satellites for satellite
intensity validation• First four plane operation in a WPAC TC• First systematic targeting operation in the WPAC
– Comparison of several methods from a variety of operational and research organizations
– Multiple aircraft– ECMWF/UKMO Data Targeting System (DTS)
• First systematic observations of full extratropical transition process– Multiple aircraft
• Airborne Doppler Radar• In situ observations
– land-based radar– Timed with satellite overpass
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TCS-08TC Structure and intensity
changes
T-PARC:Extratropical Transition,
Downstream Impacts, Targeting for Improved Track Predictions
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Experiments to study TC rapid intensification and concentric eye-wall cycles by C. C. Wu utilizing aircraft observations during the pre-recurvature period of TY Sinlaku
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EXP 1003: Only Data Assimilated from the first flights into TY Sinlaku
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TransformationStages
Re-intensificationas a typhoon
ExtratropicalStage
2120
19
18
17
16
15
DOTSTAR,DLR FALCON
WC-130J, NRL P-3, DLR Falcon
WC-130J, NRL P-3, DLR Falcon
WC-130J, NRL P-3, DLR Falcon
WC-130J, NRL P-3 DLR FALCON
TY Sinlaku: 1200 UTC 10 September – 0000 UTC 21 September
Impacts and Processes associated with the Extratropical Transition of TY Sinlaku•Uncertainty in downstream development•Utility of aircraft data in identifying important structural characteristics
1200 UTC15 SEP
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Standard deviation of 500 hPa among ensemble members averaged between 40o-60oNBlack dots = location of Sinlaku and ex-Sinlaku in individual membersRed dot = location at time of Extratropical Transition
Julia Keller, KIT, Karlsruhe, Germany
1200 UTC 15 SEP
TIGGE
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Keller et al 2011 (GRL)
Use of TIGGE to examine the ability of ensemble systems to represent forecast scenarios as defined by a fuzzy cluster analysis of the large-scale upper-level flow patterns associated with TY Sinlaku and Jangmi during T-PARC
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Typhoon Sinlaku07-22 September 2008
Re-intensification 17-18 September 2008
18 Sep / 0200 UTC16 Sep / 1800 UTC
Post Recurvature Structure Change and Re-intensification
1. Synoptic-scale processes facilitated the re-invigoration of deep convection
2. Mesoscale and convective-scale processes contributed to an increase in the vorticity of the TC, which resulted in the re-intensification of Sinlaku.
A. Interactions between the tilted TC vortex and multiple mesoscale circulations
B. The re-intensification of Sinlaku continued as multiple episodes of deep convection rotated cyclonically around and inward toward the TC center.
212019
18
1716
15
DOTSTAR,DLR FALCON
WC-130J, NRL P-3, DLR Falcon
WC-130J, NRL P-3, DLR Falcon
WC-130J, NRL P-3, DLR Falcon
WC-130J, NRL P-3
DLR FALCON
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W E
• Sinlaku CC / Convective Towers (>14 km)– Deep convection – Reflectivity
• Multiple towers with reflectivity > 35 dBZ at 12 km• Base of reflectivity in the tower region increases to the
east
– Vorticity• Deep towers of positive vorticity coincident with towers
of high reflectivity; maximum between 10-12 km• Maxima associated with the Sinlaku LLCC tilts eastward
with height into western tower of positive vorticity
– Vertical Motion• ~30 m s-1
• Maximum between 10-12 km
– Convergence into the column through 10 km; divergence at upper-levels
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TransformationStages
Re-intensificationas a typhoon
ExtratropicalStage
2120
19
18
17
16
15
DOTSTAR,DLR FALCON
WC-130J, NRL P-3, DLR Falcon
WC-130J, NRL P-3, DLR Falcon
WC-130J, NRL P-3, DLR Falcon
WC-130J, NRL P-3 DLR FALCON
TY Sinlaku: 1200 UTC 10 September – 0000 UTC 21 September
Impacts and Processes associated with the Extratropical Transition of TY Sinlaku•Uncertainty in downstream development•Utility of aircraft data in identifying important structural characteristics
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ELDORA reflectivity and horizontal winds as defined by the SAMURAI analysis package developed by Michael Bell. TC Structural characteristics are related to the forcing due to westerly vertical wind shear
Annette Forster, KIT, Karlsruhe, Germany
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Areal coverage of upward and downward motion in each quadrant of the storm
Northwest
Southwest Southeast
Northeast
Annette Forster, KIT, Karlsruhe, Germany
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TransformationStages
Re-intensificationas a typhoon
ExtratropicalStage
2120
19
18
17
16
15
DOTSTAR,DLR FALCON
WC-130J, NRL P-3, DLR Falcon
WC-130J, NRL P-3, DLR Falcon
WC-130J, NRL P-3, DLR Falcon
WC-130J, NRL P-3 DLR FALCON
TY Sinlaku: 1200 UTC 10 September – 0000 UTC 21 September
Impacts and Processes associated with the Extratropical Transition of TY Sinlaku•Uncertainty in downstream development•Utility of aircraft data in identifying important structural characteristics
Final Stage of Extratropical Transition
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SAMURAI Analysis with ELDORA, aircraft, and satellite data
ECMWF Analysis (YOTC) used as background for SAMURAI Analysis
Black line = NRL P-3 flight path, black arcs = NRL P-3 and WC-130J Dropwindsonde trajectories
Julian Quinting, KIT, Karlsruhe, Germany
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Analysis of aircraft dropwindsonde data, satellite winds, and ELDORA winds with the background field defined by the ECMWF analysis as obtained from the YOTC database
Julian Quinting, KIT, Karlsruhe, Germany
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ELDORA Reflectivity with SAMURAI in-plane and vertical winds
South North South North
SAMURAI in-plane and vertical winds and moist static energy
Convective region (x = 125 km)
Julian Quinting, KIT, Karlsruhe, Germany
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ELDORA Reflectivity with SAMURAI in-plane and vertical winds
South North South North
SAMURAI in-plane and vertical winds and moist static energy
Convective region (x = 125 km)
Julian Quinting, KIT, Karlsruhe, Germany
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TYPE 2008 2009 2010 2011
Refereed Articles 1 18 17 8
Conference papers and presentations, Technical Reports
6 9 16
PhD Dissertations 1 3 5
M.S. Theses 4 2 6
T-PARC/TCS-08 Related Publications/Theses
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Summary and Outlook• Successful field campaign
– Design– Execution– Data processing – QC– Distributed Data Archive (http://data.eol.ucar.edu/master_list/?project=T-
PARC)• Initial Results
– Concentrated on results of targeted data experiments– Data denial experiments
• Improved forecast tracks during pre-recurvature periods• Forecast improvements are sensitive to the type of aircraft observations (i.e., inner core,
near-storm environment, remote sensitive area• Forecast improvements are sensitive to the type of measurement (i.e., dropwindsonde,
Doppler wind lidar).• Most recent results are examining the relative impacts of targeted satellite data
• Meetings– International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones (ITWC) March 2010– International Workshop on Extratropical Transition (IWET) May 2012
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Summary and Outlook• Process studies
– Tropical cyclone structure and intensity changes– Interaction with YOTC and TIGGE
• Physical processes• Forecast Verification
– Extratropical Transition• Predictability of downstream impacts• New data sets providing detailed examination of structural characteristics.• Identification of the evolution to an extratropical cyclone
• Outlook – Link detailed observations of post recurvature structure to impacts on
the predictability associated with downstream impacts and development of the extratropical cyclone.
– Examination of structure and intensity changes– Relative roles of satellite and in situ observations relative to improved
track forecasts.