operations for sustainable problem identification...
TRANSCRIPT
WORLD BANK
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Strategic VisionGoals
Objectives
Problem Identification
Alternatives
Analysis & Evaluation
Decision on Strategic Plan
Priority Setting, Implementation
Operations
Monitoring
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Strategic Planningfor Sustainable
Metropolitan Transport
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Conversation Between Alice (in Wonderland) and the Cheshire Cat*Alice: “Would you tell me, please, which way I ought to go from here?
Cat: 'That depends a good deal on where you want to get to,'
Alice: 'I don't much care where----'
Cat: 'Then it doesn't matter which way you go'
*Lewis Carroll
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“When you come to a fork in the road, take it”*
* Yogi Berra, American Baseball Player and Philosopher
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• Transport problems growing inmagnitude and complexity
• Related to other strategic issues: – Land use– Climate change, energy, local air quality– Safety, security, health– Economic competitiveness
• Transport too often implemented and operated in pieces with too little decision support information
Strategic Planning forMetropolitan Transport: Why?
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Strategic MetropolitanTransport Planning (SMTP)
• Purpose of process is to serve strategic decisions for metropolitan transport
• Focuses on:– Major investment needs/priorities– Strategic (long-term, regional) operating and
management policies
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• Improves decision making by providing essential decision support information
• Improves coordination of all transport and related policies and investments
• Helps achieve consensus– Transparency– Involvement
• Helps make best use of scarce resources of all kinds
Good Strategic Planning:Good Strategic Planning:Key to Successfully Dealing Key to Successfully Dealing
with Growing Challengeswith Growing Challenges
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Effective SMTP“The 5-C Process”
• Comprehensive: Whole area, all modes• Continuous: Monitoring• Cooperative: All stakeholders• Connected: To $ decisions• Championed
SMTP5-C
Process
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Strategic VisionGoals
Objectives
Problem Identification
Alternatives
Analysis & Evaluation
Decision on Strategic Plan
Priority Setting, Implementation
Operations
Monitoring
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• Related to outcomes, e.g., safe, clean, affordable, not outputs, e.g., “4 ring roads + 50 km metro”
• Transport perspective goes beyond congestion considerations:– Access as well as mobility– Safety
• Vision has more than transport dimensions
Metropolitan VisionWhat Should the Metropolitan Area
Look Like in 20 Years?
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Quality of Life:More than Green House Gas
Emissions
• Land use• Social and economic development, equity
– Gender equality– Needs of disabled
• All aspects of the local and global environment, e.g., open space, emissions
• Energy
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Role of Land UseRole of Land Use
• Visual illustration of future quality of life
• Macro scale (10,000 meter altitude view) – Balance among jobs, housing, other
activities– Guide as well as “serve” land use
• Site-plan concepts
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• Analyze current and future (if current trends continue?) transport and related conditions, e.g.,– Congestion– Health
• Safety • Local air quality
– Climate change– Logistics costs– Economic, social development– Sustaining existing system
Define and Understand the Problems Needing Solutions4
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• Causes, not symptoms• Congestion is only one symptom;
There are others• Focus on:
– Demographic, social characteristics – Land use – Operations and management – Pricing– Network characteristics
• e.g., structure, capacity, design, condition
Identify Underlying Causes
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Poor Land Use, Site PlanningA Possible Cause of Congestion
Auto dependent Residential
• Widely dispersed, single-purpose developments (“bedroom” communities)
• Site planning not pedestrian or transit friendly
• Site planning forces dependency on private, motorized modes
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Dispersal of Urban Activities
“China: Building Institutions for Sustainable Transport”, Zhi Liu, Smith, et al, World Bank, 2006
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Demand SideA Possible Cause of Congestion
• Explosive population, income and motorization (2, 4 wheelers) growth
• Declining household sizes– Grown children moving to own homes– More trips per capita
• Changing travel patterns– Less core-focused, smaller O/D volumes– More non-work travel
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Changing PT Changing PT Demand PatternsDemand Patterns
Accra, GhanaAccra, Ghana
2004
2013
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Pedestrian/Bicycle Problems
• Missing connectivity and coverage• Poor infrastructure condition• Little or no street lighting• Few protected crossings • Encroachment by hawkers, parking
– Poor enforcement
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Public Transport Problems
• Little or no regulation– Safety, service quality
• Buses stuck in traffic• Route network
– Redundant, confusing, unmatched to needs • Insufficient and/or excess capacity • Inefficient fare collection• Poor quality infrastructure and equipment
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Roadway Problems
• Insufficient arterial connectivity, capacity• Poor/non-existent secondary road system• Insufficient off-street parking• Poor traffic engineering• Poor design standards• Poor enforcement of traffic, parking rules• Infrastruture condition
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Other Transport Problems• Safety, security• Air quality• Climate change• Economic competitiveness, logistics• Sustaining the existing system
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Other Problems with a Transport Dimension
• Economic competiveness and development
• Equity/Equality• Health• Access to housing• Etc.
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Consider the Right Alternatives
• Begin with current and expected “no project” future issues
• Be multi-modal: In public transport studies, consider transit-supportive highway improvements, and vice-versa
• Include land use, systems management and operations policies in package
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There Is No One, ”Always Best,”Type of Transport Improvement
• Cover a range of alternatives– Types of modes– Levels of investment: Not just high cost
options!!!!!• Consider more than just metros, ring roads
and flyovers. – Better management and operations– Street/roadway priority, other bus improvements– BRT– LRT– HOV lanes– Arterial/secondary road improvements
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Be Multi-Modal
• Each alternative should be judicious combinations of:– Modes: Roadway, parking, and public
transport – Actions: Investment, management, and
operations improvements• New highway capacity projects (e.g., road
and expressway widening, new facilities) are excellent opportunities for dedicated public transport facilities
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Mexico City Metro,ExpresswayBrisbane BRT
Leeds UK
Beijing BRT,Expressway
Barcelona LRT,Arterial
Road/PT Projects
Paris, Expressway Median Transitway
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Transport
Land Use
Continue current trend
Create new medium density
mixed use nodes, strengthen CBD
Homogeneous high-density
Emphasis exclusively NMT, PT/RT
? ? ?
Mixed modes ? ? ?Road
emphasis? ? ?
? Consistent LU/Transport Strategy
Strategic Metropolitan Transport and Land Use Alternatives
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• Quantitative and qualitative factors• Focus on people rather than vehicles
– Travel times– Accessibility– Reliability
• Economic, environment, land use, energy, and social benefits and impacts
Develop Complete, Objective, Reliable Decision Information6
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Money Matters
• Life-cycle costs (initial Invst., ongoing Ops.)
• Financial sustainability • Risk
– Higher costs than expected– Fewer resources than expected
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Do Not Slant Analysis to Favor Pre-determined Solutions!!
• Biased assumptions– e.g., fares, capacity standards
• Non-competitive alternatives • Under-estimated costs• Inflated benefits• Ignored risk
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Strive for Open Decision-Making • Make decision information available to the
general public in a timely fashion• Hear from all stakeholders, including
citizens - before decisions are made• Inform decision makers of stakeholder
concerns before they choose• Reflect outstanding stakeholder concerns in
next development phase
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Do Not be Afraid to Defer Some Decisions to After Additional Planning
• For major investments, before selecting mode(s), general alignments, may need more detailed studies to nail down:– Costs– Benefits– Environmental, social impacts– Operational, physical feasibility
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Project Identification (Alternatives Analysis)
Feasibility Study/Preliminary Design
Number of Alternatives and Level of Detail
Level of Engineering Definition, Level of Engineering Definition, Analysis DetailAnalysis Detail
Num
ber o
f Alte
rnat
ives
Num
ber o
f Alte
rnat
ives
Highest
Lowest
Minimal 30%Design
Final Design
Metropolitan Priority Corridors,
Alternatives