operations report - pjm
TRANSCRIPT
PJM©2019
Operations Report
www.pjm.com
Hong Chen
Senior Lead Engineer, Markets Coordination
MC Information Webinar
April 22, 2019
PJM©2019 2
Load Forecasting Error (Achieved 80% of the Time)
www.pjm.com
1.58
1.40
3.08
3.40
2.38
1.98
3.10
1.98
1.90
2.58
1.98
2.04
1.69
1.48
2.05
1.69
1.70
1.68
1.26
1.57
1.88
1.66
1.84
2.08
2.44
1.49
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
Fore
cast
Err
or (
Abso
lute
%)
On-Peak
Off-Peak
Average
3% Line
20192018
PJM©2019 3 www.pjm.com
PJM RTO Load Forecasting Analysis
Average RTO load forecast error performance for March was 1.59%,
within the goal of 3%.
PJM©2019 4 www.pjm.com
Peak Load Forecasting Error Outlier Days
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
Fore
cast
Err
or (
Abso
lute
%)
20192018
04/13/18
05/07/18
08/06/1810/30/18
09/10/18
11/09/18
12/23/18 01/31/19
02/02/1903/13/19
03/06/18
06/07/18
07/30/18
PJM©2019 5 www.pjm.com
Peak Load Average Forecast Error by Zone
RTO MIDATL AP CE AEP DAY DUQ DOM ATSI DEOK EKPC
1.7% 3.8%
2.3% 3.5%
3.2%
2.1% 1.6% 2.2% 1.4%3.6%
Quarter2017 Q1 1.0% 1.6% 2.1% 1.6% 1.8%
2.2% 4.4% 2.7% 2.5% 2.0% 4.8%2.8% 2.7% 3.0%
2.0% 3.7%2017 Q2 1.3% 1.8% 2.2% 2.2%
3.5%2.2% 3.0% 3.0% 2.4% 2.8% 3.5%3.6%
2.1% 2.3%2.4% 2.3%2017 Q3 1.9%2017 Q4 1.1% 1.5% 2.2% 1.6% 2.4% 2.5%
2018 Q2 1.5% 2.4% 2.3% 2.9% 3.7%2.1% 1.9% 1.5% 2.8% 1.3%2.5% 3.0% 2.9% 2.5% 2.3% 3.4%
2018 Q1 1.3% 2.1% 2.0% 1.5%
1.5% 2.0%2018 Q3 1.6%
3.3%2.1% 3.2% 3.4% 2.4% 2.8% 3.7%
2018 Q4 1.3% 1.5% 2.3% 1.7% 2.1% 2.3% 2.0% 2.2%2.5% 2.6% 3.5%
1.9% 1.6% 1.7% 2.2% 1.5%2019 Q1 1.2% 1.6% 2.5% 1.8%
PJM©2019 6 www.pjm.com
Monthly BAAL Performance Score
PJM’s BAAL performance has exceeded the goal of 99% for each month in 2019.
99.8 99.8 99.8 99.8 99.899.9
99.899.9 99.9 99.9 99.9 99.9 99.9
45 4251
4033
29 30 30
15 15
25
13
41
99
76
101106
91
48
88
46
30 29
63
36
66
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
96
97
98
99
100
Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
Excu
rsio
ns a
nd M
inut
es
Oper
atio
ns M
etric
(%)
Operations Metric (%)
Excursions Outside Limits
Minutes Outside Limits
2018 2019
PJM©2019 7 www.pjm.com
• Two spinning events in the month of March
• Six sharing events with the Northeast Power Coordinating Council (NPCC)
• The following Emergency Procedures occurred in March:
– 18 Post-Contingency Local Load Relief Warnings (PCLLRW)
– 1 Cold Weather Event
Emergency Procedure Summary
PJM©2019 8 www.pjm.com
RTO Generation Outage Rate - Monthly
The 13-month average forced outage rate is 4.10% or 8,609 MW.
The 13-month average total outage rate is 15.08% or 31,764 MW.
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
3/1/2018 5/1/2018 7/1/2018 9/1/2018 11/1/2018 1/1/2019 3/1/2019
Forced Outage Average (%)Total Outage Average (%)
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
3/1/2018 5/1/2018 7/1/2018 9/1/2018 11/1/2018 1/1/2019 3/1/2019
Forced Outage Average (MW)Total Outage Average (MW)
PJM©2019 9 www.pjm.com
2018-2019 Planned Emergency, Unplanned
Transmission Outage Summary, and Total
Note: “Unplanned Outages" include tripped facilities. One tripping event may involve multiple facilities.
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
Num
ber o
f Out
age
Tick
ets
TotalUnplanned Outages (greater than 2 hrs)Planned Emergency
PJM©2019 10 www.pjm.com
PCLLRW Count Vs. Peak Load – 3 Months
0
1
2
3
4
5
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
Jan 2019 Feb 2019 Mar 2019
RTO Peak Load
PCLLRW Count
PJM©2019 11 www.pjm.com
Spin Response
Event Date Start Time End Time Duration Region Tier 1 Estimate (MW) Tier 1 Response (MW)
1 03/03/19 12:31 12:40 00:09 RTO 2915.2 1332.2
2 03/06/19 22:06 22:15 00:09 RTO 1874.2 811.9
Event Date Start Time End Time Duration Region Tier 2 Assigned (MW) Tier 2 Response (MW) Tier 2 Penalty (MW)
1 03/03/19 12:31 12:40 00:09 RTO 70.0 70.0 0
2 03/06/19 22:06 22:15 00:09 RTO 738.1 738.1 0
PJM©2019 12 www.pjm.com
Perfect Dispatch – Performance
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2019 Perfect Dispatch Performance - March 2019
2019 Daily Performance
2019 YTD Performance
2018 YTD Performance
2017 YTD Performance
PJM©2019 13 www.pjm.com
Perfect Dispatch – Performance
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
$700
$800
$900
$1,000
$1,100
$1,200
$1,300
$1,400
$1,500
$0
$4
$8
$12
$16
$20
$24
$28
$32
2 4 6 8 1012 2 4 6 8 1012 2 4 6 8 1012 2 4 6 8 1012 2 4 6 8 1012 2 4 6 8 1012 2 4 6 8 1012 2 4 6 8 1012 2 4 6 8 1012 2 4 6 8 1012 2
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Cum
ulat
ive
Prod
uctio
n Co
st S
avin
gs ($
in M
illio
ns)
Mon
thly
Pro
duct
ion
Cost
Sav
ings
($ in
Mill
ions
)
Month/Year
Perfect Dispatch Estimated Production Cost Savings Through March 2019
Monthly Production Cost Savings
Cumulative Production Cost Savings
PJM©2019 14 www.pjm.com
Perfect Dispatch Analysis
The year-to-date Perfect Dispatch performance score through March
2019 is 88.21%.
The estimated cumulative production cost savings through March 2019
is over $1.4 billion with over $29 million in savings in 2019.
PJM©2019 16 www.pjm.com
Peak Load Average Forecast Error by Zone
0
1
2
3
4
5
RTO MIDATL AP CE AEP DAY DUQ DOM ATSI DEOK EKPC
Fore
cast
Err
or (
Abso
lute
%)
20192017
2017 Q42018 Q12018 Q22018 Q32018 Q42019 Q1
2017 Q12017 Q22017 Q3
PJM©2019 17
Goal Measurement: Balancing Authority ACE Limit (BAAL)
• The purpose of the new BAAL standard is to maintain interconnection frequency within a predefined frequency profile under all conditions (normal and abnormal), to prevent frequency-related instability, unplanned tripping of load or generation, or uncontrolled separation or cascading outages that adversely impact the reliability of the interconnection. NERC requires each balancing authority demonstrate real-time monitoring of ACE and interconnection frequency against associated limits and shall balance its resources and demands in real time so that its ACE does not exceed the BAAL (BAALLOW or BAALHIGH) for a continuous time period greater than 30 minutes for each event.
• PJM directly measures the total number of BAAL excursions in minutes compared to the total number of minutes within a month. PJM has set a target value for this performance goal at 99% on a daily and monthly basis. In addition, current NERC rules limit the recovery period to no more than 30 minutes for a single event.
www.pjm.com
Balancing Authority ACE Limit - Performance Measure
PJM©2019 18 www.pjm.com
RTO Generation Outage Rate - Daily
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
3/1/2018 5/1/2018 7/1/2018 9/1/2018 11/1/2018 1/1/2019 3/1/2019
FORCED OUTAGE RATE (%)TOTAL OUTAGE RATE (%)
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
3/1/2018 5/1/2018 7/1/2018 9/1/2018 11/1/2018 1/1/2019 3/1/2019
FORCED OUTAGE RATE (MW)TOTAL OUTAGE RATE (MW)
The 13-month average forced outage rate is 4.10% or 8,609 MW.
The 13-month average total outage rate is 15.08% or 31,764 MW.
PJM©2019 19 www.pjm.com
Perfect Dispatch refers to the hypothetical least production cost commitment and Dispatch, achievable only if all system conditions (load
forecast, unit availability / performance, interchange, transmission outages, etc.) were known and controllable in advance. While being
hypothetical and not achievable in reality, this is useful as a baseline for performance measurement.
The Perfect Dispatch performance goal is designed to measure how well PJM commits combustion turbines (CTs) in real time operations
compared to a calculated optimal CT commitment profile.
The Perfect Dispatch performance measure is calculated as 100% x (The accumulative year-to-date optimal CT production cost in
Perfect Dispatch / The accumulative year-to-date actual real-time CT production cost).
The Perfect Dispatch performance goal was removed as a goal beginning in 2015. Currently Perfect Dispatch does not have a
performance goal, but the metric will continue to be tracked.
The cumulative Estimated Production Cost Savings helps to demonstrate the savings that result from PJM’s process changes since the
inception of the Perfect Dispatch analysis in 2008. This estimate is determined by comparing the Perfect Dispatch performance for all
resources to benchmarks set at the beginning of the Perfect Dispatch analysis. A benchmark of 98.18% is used for comparison of the
2019 metric which is 99.16% through the end of March.
Perfect Dispatch – Performance Measure