Arun K. JoshiCIMMYT, India

a.k.joshi@cgiar.org

Opportunities and challenges for

wheat in Asia and the potential of

hybrid wheat

Source: Hans Braun, CIMMYT

What we eat – is WHEAT

Source: https://www.google.com

The White Wheat

Museum; Ashgabat – 2005

Established to relay the

historical story of white

wheat of Turkmenistan to

future generations.

The White Wheat Museum is

a graceful sign of respect to

the history of civilization.

Source: https://www.polimeks.com

Source: http://apps.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/circulars/grain-wheat.pdf

South Asia: Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Iran, Myanmar, Nepal, Pakistan

East Asia: China, Dem Rep Korea, Japan, Mongolia, Rep Korea

West Asia: Iraq, Israel, Jordon, Lebanon, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Turkey, Yemen

Central Asia: Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan

Source: http://apps.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/circulars/grain-wheat.pdf

The big challenge

Agrifood systems

Food security

Climate change

Diseases

Urbanization

Resources

Diets

More Less

Better

Global Yield Projection Scenarios for Wheat until 2050

1500

2500

3500

4500

5500

19

70

19

75

19

80

19

85

19

90

19

95

20

00

20

05

20

10

20

15

20

20

20

25

20

30

20

35

20

40

20

45

20

50

2.4%/ yearDouble 2010 Production

same as past; Already a challenge

1.6%/yearFAO target

100 million tons shortage

300 million tons shortage

Yield, kg/ha

Source: H-J Braun

Saudi Arabia to stop

wheat production by 2016

The key word

Change

Seed

Market

Technology

Business

IndiaCBW 38DBW 16DBW 71 DBW 88 DBW 90 DPW 621-50 GW 366HD 2888HD 2932HD 2987HD 3118HI 1531HPW 251HPW 349HS 490HW 5207KRL 210MACS 6222MACS 6273MP 1203NIAW 917PBW 527PBW 658RAJ 3777UAS 304UAS 347VL 907WH 1080

EgyptMisr 1Misr 2

SudanZakia

EthiopiaDanda'aKakabaHidaseHoggonaShorimaHulukaKingbird

KenyaKenya TaiKenya SunbirdKingbirdKenya Hawk 10

IranAkbariArgBamGonbadParsiPisghamSirvanSistanOfoghMehrgan

AfghanistanMuqawim 09Chonte#1Baghlan 09

PakistanNARC 2011BARS 2009

NepalBL3063TilottamaDanphe 1

BhutanBajosokhakaGumasokhakaBumthang Kaa Drukchu

Some new varieties delivered in last 5 years

BangladeshBARI Gom 26BARI Gom 27BARI Gom 29

Stem rust

race Ug99

Source: www.google.com

WB Vulnerable Areas in South Asia

‘Borlaug 100’ – should increase in demand?Released in 2014 in Mexico with 9% grain yield

superiority; Fits well in South Asia and has shown tolerance to wheat blast

Source: Ravi P. Singh, CIMMYT

12.4 t/ha

Iran

Biofortified wheat: Rich in Zn, Iron

Photo by G. Velu, CIMMYT: A Young farmer in Uttarakhand, India harvesting high zinc wheat

Two varieties released in India (WB2, HPBW 01; one in Pakistan (Zinkol 2016)

High Zn Wheat Delivery in South Asia

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Area (ha) 2000 40,000 75,000 150,000 350,000

Farming HH 5000 50,000 250,000 500,000 750,000

2012

2013

20142015

2016

PVS Field day

1000 mini-kits

5000 farmers50,000 farmers

250,000 farmers

Spikes of various Triticeae species

Whitfoard et al., 2013

Hybrid wheat

One of the potential ways

of genetic yield gain

• Origin in 1930s: In

USA (after maize was a

success)

• No progress for 30

years

• Some hope after CMS

system discovered in

1962 (Wilson and Ross, 1962)

• Still struggling?

Hybrid wheat for a waterlogged area

• Commercial hybrid wheat became a reality

in 1990s, when the CHA ‘GENESIS’

(Hybritech-Monsanto) and CROISORE

(Hybrinova) received provisional marketing

authorization in France in 1992

• In 1994, Hybrinova released its first hybrid

HYNO-PRECIA in France and Hybri-Tech

Monsanto released DOMINO in USA

• Later in 1999, Nordsaat listed HYBNOS 1

as its first hybrid in Germany

• Also released in India – MHYCO

• In 2015, hybrid

wheat was grown

on ~243,000 ha

across Europe

• This is expected

to be doubles (to

grow 5,65,000 ha)

by 2018

Hybrid wheat area in France

2002-2011

Five companies in four countries

• France, Germany, Poland and

Austria

http://soilcrop.tamu.edu

http://www.agriculture.com

In a recent report (April 2016), the seed

giant Syngenta claimed to have got a

breakthrough in hybrid wheat with a

plan to launch hybrids in India by 2020

(http://www.thehindubusinessline.com)

EPTM technology for hybrid development

Source: Kaiima.com

Split gene system

Promising indications

• Hybrids have shown potential of a wider

adaptation in Europe

• Also being tried in wheat heavy countries

like India and China

• Combined alliance of companies in

different parts of the world

• Indication of a molecular breakthrough

• Could be a necessity due to increased food

demand

Global seed market to be $92 Billion by 2020@ CAGR of 9.4% from 2015 to 2020Source: ://www.marketsandmarkets.com

Source: ://www.businesswire.com

Wheat seed required in Asia (MT)

Source: FAOSTAT, Nov 9, 2016

0

1

2

3

4

5

Mill

ion

to

ne

s

Axis Title

15 MT compared to Global 33 MT

Actual seed market in Asia (MT)

• Several times of the present market (two

to ten times)

• Seed replacement rate is very low

(Average 15%)

• Most seed is in control of public sector

• Farmers are ready to pay, if there is

quality assurance

1

Source: Julio Huerta

Now farmer is not in isolation

Growing phone-based advisories..

e.g. IndiaAgromet Advisory

Services reach over 2.5 million farmers

Source: Pramod Aggarwal, BISA-CIMMYT

Climate Smart Villages

in South Asia

End of 2016

-200

300

800

1300

1800

2010 2012 2014 2016

Nu

mb

er

of C

lim

ate

Sm

art

Villa

ge

s

Source: Pramod Aggarwal, BISA-CIMMYT

Seed is a vital component

Private Public Partnerships on Wheat Breeding in Developing Countries Focus on Private Partners for Scaling up

https://www.azquotes.com

Thank you for

your support!

www.CIMMYT.org