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Page 1: organize the use of the ocean space - North Pacific …...Practical way to organize the use of the ocean space, and the interactions between uses, to balance needs for development
Page 2: organize the use of the ocean space - North Pacific …...Practical way to organize the use of the ocean space, and the interactions between uses, to balance needs for development

Practical way to organize the use of the ocean space, and theinteractions between uses, to balance needs for developmentand environmental protection

S14

Marine Spatial Planning – MSP

What is Ocean Planning and why is it important?

WWF (2010)

Page 3: organize the use of the ocean space - North Pacific …...Practical way to organize the use of the ocean space, and the interactions between uses, to balance needs for development

MSP has been recognized as a tool with high potential toensure sustainability in the use of the oceans

What is Ocean Planning and why is it important? S14

Page 4: organize the use of the ocean space - North Pacific …...Practical way to organize the use of the ocean space, and the interactions between uses, to balance needs for development
Page 5: organize the use of the ocean space - North Pacific …...Practical way to organize the use of the ocean space, and the interactions between uses, to balance needs for development

Climate-related drivers of change

Changes in distribution of marine ecosystem services

Oceanbiophysicalconditions

How can climate change affect MSP?

Changes in ocean usesin space and time

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Page 6: organize the use of the ocean space - North Pacific …...Practical way to organize the use of the ocean space, and the interactions between uses, to balance needs for development
Page 7: organize the use of the ocean space - North Pacific …...Practical way to organize the use of the ocean space, and the interactions between uses, to balance needs for development

How can climate change affect MSP?

Nature Geoscience Frazão Santos et al. (2016)

Not all ocean uses will be affected the same way…

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Page 8: organize the use of the ocean space - North Pacific …...Practical way to organize the use of the ocean space, and the interactions between uses, to balance needs for development
Page 9: organize the use of the ocean space - North Pacific …...Practical way to organize the use of the ocean space, and the interactions between uses, to balance needs for development

S14How can climate change affect MSP?

Ocean planningvulnerability index

EU + Norway

We argued in in Workshop 4 that vulnerability assessments were needed in climate-smart ocean planning

Page 10: organize the use of the ocean space - North Pacific …...Practical way to organize the use of the ocean space, and the interactions between uses, to balance needs for development

S14Vulnerability assessment

Many definitions…

Page 11: organize the use of the ocean space - North Pacific …...Practical way to organize the use of the ocean space, and the interactions between uses, to balance needs for development

S14Vulnerability assessment

IPCC model of vulnerability (AR3)

Page 12: organize the use of the ocean space - North Pacific …...Practical way to organize the use of the ocean space, and the interactions between uses, to balance needs for development

S14Vulnerability assessment

IPCC model of vulnerability (AR3)

Presence/intensity of ocean usesImportance of ocean uses

What can be affected?

Page 13: organize the use of the ocean space - North Pacific …...Practical way to organize the use of the ocean space, and the interactions between uses, to balance needs for development

S14Vulnerability assessment

IPCC model of vulnerability (AR3)

How much can it be affected?

Page 14: organize the use of the ocean space - North Pacific …...Practical way to organize the use of the ocean space, and the interactions between uses, to balance needs for development

S14Vulnerability assessment

IPCC model of vulnerability (AR3)

How can nations respond?

Nature Climate ChangeCinner et al. (2018)

Page 15: organize the use of the ocean space - North Pacific …...Practical way to organize the use of the ocean space, and the interactions between uses, to balance needs for development

S14Vulnerability assessment

Presence of uses National importance of uses

Exposure

0 1.00.5Vulnerability

Page 16: organize the use of the ocean space - North Pacific …...Practical way to organize the use of the ocean space, and the interactions between uses, to balance needs for development

S14Vulnerability assessment

Vulnerability is primarily explained by Exposure variations

Adaptive capacity 0.77–0.92

Sensitivity = Global level

Page 17: organize the use of the ocean space - North Pacific …...Practical way to organize the use of the ocean space, and the interactions between uses, to balance needs for development
Page 18: organize the use of the ocean space - North Pacific …...Practical way to organize the use of the ocean space, and the interactions between uses, to balance needs for development

S14Vulnerability assessment

Blue economy vulnerability (minus conservation)

Page 19: organize the use of the ocean space - North Pacific …...Practical way to organize the use of the ocean space, and the interactions between uses, to balance needs for development

S14Vulnerability assessment

Limitations…

Sensitivity as a weighting factor, not a real variable (national-level studies on sensitivity??)

Importance of marine conservation ≠ MPA coverage (ecosystem services valuation??)

Overestimation and underestimation of economic data (fine scale studies?? small economic activities??)

Only one adaptive capacity variable is marine specific

Page 20: organize the use of the ocean space - North Pacific …...Practical way to organize the use of the ocean space, and the interactions between uses, to balance needs for development

S14Risk assessment

Hazard and Risk

Page 21: organize the use of the ocean space - North Pacific …...Practical way to organize the use of the ocean space, and the interactions between uses, to balance needs for development
Page 22: organize the use of the ocean space - North Pacific …...Practical way to organize the use of the ocean space, and the interactions between uses, to balance needs for development

S14Risk assessment

Vulnerability and Hazard potential

…Higher need for adaptation!

Page 23: organize the use of the ocean space - North Pacific …...Practical way to organize the use of the ocean space, and the interactions between uses, to balance needs for development

Adaptation to climate change

Climate-smart ocean planning initiatives!

MSP cannot anticipate every possible scenario, and plan for all potential cases

Ensure mechanisms to adapt to an uncertain and dynamic future

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Page 24: organize the use of the ocean space - North Pacific …...Practical way to organize the use of the ocean space, and the interactions between uses, to balance needs for development

Thank [email protected]

OCEANPLAN

Acknowledgments:

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www.researchgate.net/project/OCEANPLAN-MSP-under-a-Changing-ClimateMore info:


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