osk jewels book launch-the spirit of investing 20090403 osk

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    PP 10551/10/2009 (022563)April 3, 2009

    1OSK Research

    MALAYSIA EQUITYInvestment Research

    Daily News

    STRATEGY Private Circulation Only

    Jeffrey Tan+60 (3) 9207 [email protected]

    OSK JEWELS - 2009 Edition

    Jason Yap+60 (3) 9207 [email protected]

    The Spirit of Investing

    Mervin Chow+60 (3) 9207 [email protected]

    Norfauzi Nasron

    +60 (3) 9207 [email protected]

    Law Mei Chi+60 (3) 9207 [email protected]

    We held an exclusive launch of the Top Malaysian Small Cap Companies Book (2009 Edition) at

    the Mandarin Oriental on March 31. As with previous launches, the Top 5 companies were

    invited for presentations in the morning followed by break-out sessions in the second half of the

    day. The five top companies selected for the latest edition are KPJ Healthcare, Kossan Rubber

    Industries, QL Resources, Wah Seong Corporation and Hektar REIT. KPJ was represented by

    Alvin Lee, its Chief Financial Officer, Kossan by Edward Yip, its Senior Manager, Corporate

    Affairs, Wah Seong by Deputy Managing Director Giancarlo Maccagno, and Hektar by Lim Ye

    Jhen, GM Strategy, Hektar Asset Management. The companies form part of the 50 small cap

    stocks with market capitalisation of under RM1bn featured in our popular investment

    compendium, now in its 5th

    year of publication.

    Fig. 1: Registration and meet thecorporates session

    Fig. 2: Clients listening attentively duringthe corporate presentations

    Source : OSK

    Capacity crowd. The response for the event was overwhelming as more than 80 participants

    comprising portfolio managers and members of the buy-side community turned up. Most of our clients

    came by to gather fresh ideas and to learn how the companies are weathering the slowdown in the

    context of their respective industries. Most of the clients we acquainted with were very supportive of our

    continued commitment in the small cap space and like our Top 5 picks given their safe havencharacteristics, supported by promising dividends and resilient business models. The selection this year

    provides exposure to the consumer, oil & gas, rubber gloves and healthcare sectors.

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    KEY HIGHLIGHTS

    Table 1: OSK Top 10 Small Cap Companies 2009 Edition

    Companies Sector Target price BUY (RM)Alam Maritim Oil & Gas 1.40Hai-O Enterprise Consumer 4.16Hektar REIT REIT 0.99

    Kossan Rubber Rubber Glove 4.48KPJ Healthcare Healthcare 4.00Malaysia Steel Works Steel 1.03Mudajaya Group Construction 1.58New Hoong Fatt Automotive 1.80QL Resources Consumer 3.32Wah Seong Oil & Gas 1.93

    Companies in bold denote OSK Top 5 picks for 2009

    The 50 jewels. We reduced the number of companies featured in the latest edition to 50, which in our opinion

    make up the best-of-breed that are able to endure the economic storm and emerge from a position of

    strength. The 50 stocks, ranked according to their market capitalisation, ROE, FY09 PER and FY09 dividend

    yields, are depicted in Appendix 1-4 of this report. The majority of companies have market capitalisation

    ranging from RM100m-RM500m, which is not surprising considering that their share prices have lost anaverage of 36% over the past 12 months. Based on our earnings universe, their PER valuations are at an

    attractive 5-6x FY09/10 EPS. Nine companies belong to the top quadrant, returning in excess of 20% in terms

    of ROE while slightly more than half of the 50 stocks command dividend yields of over 5%. The top dividend

    yielding stocks (>10%) - Hektar REIT and Hai-O - are in our Top 5 and Top 10 picks respectively, with the

    latter providing one of the highest ROE in the consumer sector at 32%. We view the choice of the Top 5

    companies as befitting the current uncertain economic environment as their business models are robust

    enough to withstand external pressures. All companies have been screened based on quantitative and

    qualitative scorecards with due consideration accorded to their financial and execution track records, and with

    focus on the quality of earnings. We believe the list of companies would appeal to a broad spectrum of

    investors with differing risk appetite and risk-reward profiles.

    Fig. 3: Group luncheon Fig. 4: Corporate presentation

    Source : OSK

    Good mix of consumer, oil & gas and thematic plays. Of the Top 5 companies, QL and Kossan Rubber are

    widely followed by the investment community given their recession-proof businesses consisting of mainstream

    consumables and essential goods. QL is poised for another year of uninterrupted revenue growth, repeating its

    untarnished 20-year track record since listing, buoyed by the extended growth of its marine product

    manufacturing (MPM) segment. Our consumer analyst, Law Mei Chi, has a BUY recommendation on the stock

    with a target price of RM3.32, valuing QL at 12.5x FY09 EPS. Kossan remains one of the most efficient

    manufacturers of nitrile rubber gloves (NRG) for the medical industry and among the biggest in the world. The

    focus on higher margin NBR gloves would underpin its growth going forward with margins set to further

    expand. Our analyst, Jason Yap, has a BUY recommendation on the stock with a target price of RM4.48. KPJ

    is OSKs top exposure to the healthcare sector given its expanding portfolio of hospitals nationwide and

    overseas. It currently operates the largest network of hospitals in the country (19 in total) and is looking to

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    acquire more to drive longer term growth. We feel that the prospects of the healthcare sector in the country

    remains bright due to the scarcity of medical services. Our healthcare analyst, Norfauzi Nasron, is of the view

    that KPJ is a good BUY based on its undemanding and attractive prospective PERs of 6-7x with a target price

    of RM4.00. KPJ remains a sound and compelling exposure for investors looking for a strategic long-term

    investment. Our thematic exposure this year is Hektar REIT, the countrys maiden retail focused real estate

    investment trust (REIT). Our analyst, Mervin Chow, feels that Hektars fundamentals are under-appreciated as

    its business model is inherently more defensive (focusing on the non-discretionary consumer retail segment).

    Hektar is well supported by a generous dividend yield of 12% and trades at a 30% discount to its net assetvalue (NAV). He values the stock at RM0.99. As for Wah Seong, our oil and gas analyst, Jason Yap sees it as

    being well poised to capture a bigger slice of the worldwide pipe coating and compressor business, with a

    success rate of 30%-50% Its tenderbook currently stands at US$4bn. Jasons target price on the stock is

    RM1.93 or 9x FY10 EPS.

    Strong interest for KPJ, Wah Seong and QL. KPJ, Wah Seong and QL attracted the best response for their

    individual break-out sessions. While the sessions for Kossan and Hektar were more subdued, we gather that

    some fund managers had obtained updates from Kossans management through recent visits while clients

    were understandably more apprehensive over Hektars outlook given the slowdown in the economy. The

    investment community may also be more cautious on the Malaysian REIT setting given the flak received by

    some REITs in the region, specifically over re-financing, recapitalisation and revaluation risks. That said, the

    clients who booked their slots with the company were generally positive on its generous dividend yield and

    relatively more resilient earnings compared with other real estate asset classes.

    We append the key highlights and major takeaways on our Top 5 picks in the following section.

    KPJ HEALTHCARE (BUY, TP- RM4.00)

    Good response. The overall response to KPJ Healthcares breakout sessions had been above our expectation

    as the stock has generated great interest among the investment community. Given its strong fundamentals and

    relatively defensive business, investors are keen to better understand the companys business model,

    especially amid the current economic slowdown. This is in line with our view that KPJ is an excellent choice for

    strategic longer term investment and portfolio balancing, especially during the current economic landscape

    where investors are looking for more conservative and defensive investments.

    Fig. 5: Mr. Alvin Lee of KPJ

    addressing the crowd

    Source : OSK

    Hospitals network expansion on track. Part of KPJs expansion strategy is to add at least one new hospital

    every year, either by building new hospitals or via acquisitions of existing hospitals. It has been actively looking

    for acquisition targets and has so far identified some potential candidates with focus in Johor and EastMalaysia due to large untapped market potential in those locations. In line with its last two acquisitions, KPJ is

    planning to acquire small or medium-sized hospitals with capacity of 30 to 60 beds. Meanwhile, construction on

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    Seberang Perai Specialist centre to replace the Bukit Mertajam Specialist centre has been completed. It will

    start operation in a few months, while the previous centre would be converted into a nursing college for the

    northern region. The construction of the new building for Tawakal Hospital will be completed in September, with

    the existing building to be converted into a day-care and outpatient centre. This will increase its operating

    capacity and positively impact on its earnings.

    Healthy patient growth in 1QFY09. Despite the gloomy economic outlook, KPJ still managed to register

    healthy growth in the number of in-patients and out-patients for 1QFY09. According to the management, basedon past experience, the impact of a downturn on the healthcare sector lags by about 6 months and it believes

    that the full impact of the slowdown would only be reflected in the 2HFY09. Nevertheless, KPJ believes its

    business will be relatively resilient due to factors such as the scarcity of medical services and the long waiting

    list in public hospitals. This is backed by its strong brand name and growing medical insurance coverage in

    Malaysia. KPJ believes the possible downtrading among consumers from private hospital to public hospitals

    would only prolong the waiting list, which in turn puts more pressure on the public hospitals, which are already

    feeling the strain. This will result in patients requiring immediate treatment and who can afford treatment in

    private hospitals to opt for a private hospital instead.

    Headache in Indonesia to go away soon. In our previous October 08 report, we stated that KPJs 75%

    owned hospital in Jakarta, RS Bumi Serpong Damai, was facing difficulty in starting up operation due to friction

    with the minority interest shareholder and red tape on foreign ownership rules in Indonesia. However, in

    updating fund managers, KPJ said it is at the final stage of negotiations to acquire the remaining stake in this

    hospital, which will pave the way for the group to either start operating the hospital or to sell it to a third party.

    Apart from its Indonesia operation, KPJ is eyeing more management contracts for hospitals in the Middle East

    after having secured two contracts in Saudi Arabia in 2007.

    Maintain BUY. As we mentioned earlier, despite its low liquidity we believe KPJ is an excellent choice fo r

    portfolio re-balancing and a strategic long-term investment given its steady dividend payout and relatively

    resilient earnings. We maintain our forecast and BUY recommendation at an unchanged target price of RM4.00

    based on 10x PER of FY09 EPS. KPJ is still among the cheapest healthcare stocks in the region, trading at a

    single digit PER compared to its peers double-digit PER.

    FYE Dec (RMm) FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09f FY10f

    Turnover 831.5 1108.0 1270.2 1388.1 1542.9EBITDA 105.6 135.3 153.3 157.3 174.2PBT 60.1 85.2 114.1 122.3 137.2Net Profit 41.3 74.2 78.4 84.4 94.6EPS (sen) 19.9 35.8 37.9 40.3 45.1DPS (sen) 15.0 17.0 28.2 20.1 22.5

    MarginEBITDA 13% 12% 12% 11% 11%PBT 7% 8% 9% 9% 9%Net Profit 5% 7% 6% 6% 6%

    ROE 12% 20% 18% 18% 18%

    ROA 3% 4% 6% 6% 7%

    Balance SheetFixed Assets 846.3 771.6 676.2 704.0 711.2Current Assets 255.6 433.1 586.7 572.9 618.7Total Assets 1101.9 1204.7 1262.9 1276.9 1330.0Current Liabilities 250.7 286.3 285.9 250.8 252.8Net Current Assets 4.9 146.8 300.8 322.1 365.9LT Liabilities 363.9 332.2 359.4 366.3 370.1Shareholders Funds 442.6 508.8 569.3 611.5 658.8

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    QL RESOURCES (BUY, TP- RM3.32)

    Good response to breakout sessions. We received good response to QLs breakout sessions as all three

    were fully attended. Clients with different fund sizes posed questions on the impact on QL Resources from the

    drastic fall in surimi prices.

    Doubts clarified. The management was able to address concerns over recent rumours of a meltdown in surimiprices. The strong demand from Japan had earlier pushed surimi prices to a peak in mid-2008. As there was

    overstocking in Japan from April to October 2008, the demand slowdown had precipitated a drastic drop in

    surimi prices. However, management assured our clients that surimi prices would not fall further as prices have

    now reverted to the normal level of RM8000/tonne. Hence, we do not think the price plunge would have a

    significant impact on QLs earnings.

    Fig. 6: Mr. Freddie Yap of QL

    Source : OSK

    Surimi expansion. QL is currently expanding surimi production by installing new lines to produce frozen

    surimi-based products at its plant in Hutan Melintang in Perak, which will double the plants current capacity of

    an average 10,000 tonnes of surimi per year. The company has also invested in a new cold room in Endau,

    Johor, which will be in operation in 2HFY09. Its cold rooms store unprocessed fish for the low season, which

    ensures the production of surimi during this period.

    Targeting 3m eggs by 2011. QL is also looking to expand its egg business as the group is targeting 3m eggs

    per day by 2011. The group is currently undergoing expansion in Kota Kinabalu, Tawau and Kuching. It is also

    moving into Vietnam, a step it is targeting to complete later in 2009. Moreover, the group expects a larger flowof palm oil earnings from its Indonesian operation beyond FY2012 as more than 30,000 acres of oil palm trees

    will be planted by 2012.

    Maintain BUY. We recommend a BUY on this stock as we believe that the business model is fairly resilient

    given QLs integrated role and its ability to grow during times of crisis. Hence, our BUY recommendation, with

    an unchanged target price of RM3.32 based on the 3-year average of 12.5x PER and 2.4x PBV.

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    WAH SEONG (BUY, TP- RM1.93)

    Eyeing mergers and acquisitions (M&As). Management said it is open to M&A activities but the prospective

    companies should either be in the pipe coating or gas compressor business so that there is group synergy.

    Also, there should preferably be strategic benefits in terms of geographical location and new customer base.

    Fig. 7: Mr. Giancarlo Maccagno of Wah

    Seong

    Source : OSK

    Orderbook replenishment still good. Currently its orderbook stands at RM1.4bn, which is enough to keep

    the company busy over the next 6 months. Going forward, Wah Seong is expected to replenish its orderbook,

    whereby the pipe coating and gas compressor business in the global market combined would total some

    US$4bn. To date, Wah Seong has only tendered for up to RM4bn worth of jobs, with a success rate of 30%-

    50% since there are only 3 major players in the market - Bredero Shaw, Socotherm and Wah Seong.

    FYE Mar (RMm) FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10f

    Turnover 1,010.5 1,118.5 1,302.0 1,425.9 1,582.3EBITDA 89.8 113.2 137.7 151.9 169.5PBT 59.1 77.1 95.8 106.2 118.5Net Profit 48.3 63.2 80.8 90.1 101.3EPS (sen) 14.6 19.2 24.5 27.3 30.7DPS (sen) 6.0 6.7 6.7 8.0 10.0

    MarginEBITDA 8.9% 10.1% 10.6% 10.7% 10.7%PBT 5.8% 6.9% 7.4% 7.4% 7.5%Net Profit 4.8% 5.7% 6.2% 6.3% 6.4%

    ROE 23.6% 23.1% 24.5% 22.7% 21.5%ROA 8.3% 9.4% 9.9% 10.5% 10.9%

    Balance SheetFixed Assets 308.9 367.2 446.3 495.5 540.3Current Assets 274.8 304.9 368.0 364.3 391.0Total Assets 583.7 672.1 814.2 859.9 931.3Current Liabilities 222.4 261.9 308.4 283.5 278.0Net Current Assets 52.3 43.0 59.5 80.8 113.0LT Liabilities 90.5 87.8 110.2 110.2 110.2Shareholders' Fund 250.0 296.9 361.1 431.7 508.6Net Gearing (%) -81% -80% -74% -55% -43%

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    Table 2: Potential jobs for tender for Wah Seong

    Project Value US$mPipe CoatingAbove US$100m 2,650Above US$50m 404

    Above US$10m 253

    Gas CompressorJobs 700

    Total 4,000

    Source: Wah Seong

    Expanding gas compressor rental business. Currently, the rental and fabrication of gas compressors is in

    the ratio 15%:85% and going forward to 2011, management expects the rental portion to increase to 50%.

    From a customers perspective, renting is more favourable because: 1) it is getting more difficult to obtain new

    financing in the current economic environment, and 2) it is less risky to rent than own the gas compressor.However, from Wah Seongs perspective, rental income yields a higher gross margin of about 40% versus

    15%-20% for fabrication; and 2) rentals provide a recurring income since most of the contracts are locked in for

    more than 2 years.

    Disposing of non-core assets. Although this is not a priority for Wah Seong given that all its business units

    are profitable, management would still continue to concentrate on its core businesses and dispose of non-core

    ones if the offer price is attractive. Having said that, we understand that management has no intention of

    liquidating its industrial services division, which contributed close to 40% of total revenue. Examples of

    businesses that Wah Seong may consider liquidating are the drill bits business and a few others.

    Maintain BUY. Our target price for Wah Seong is RM1.93 based on PER of 9x FY10 earnings. We like the

    company for its market leadership in the pipe coating and corrosion protection: it is No. 1 in Asia and No. 3 in

    the world. This increases its tender success rate to 30%-50%.

    FYE Dec (RMm) FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09f FY10f

    Turnover 1624.3 1950.1 2343.2 2306.8 2413.6EBITDA 160.3 183.8 224.4 239.3 258.8Depreciation -35.4 -37.4 -46.9 -56.2 -59.7Net Interest Income -10.9 21.3 -6.3 -6.6 -1.3Exceptional Items -29.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Associates 1.8 -5.7 5.7 7.0 10.0PBT 86.4 162.0 176.9 183.4 207.8Net Profit 37.3 86.0 115.6 122.1 141.0EPS (sen) 5.7 13.1 17.6 18.6 21.5DPS (sen) 5.0 6.0 6.0 7.5 7.5

    MarginEBITDA 9.9% 9.4% 9.6% 10.4% 10.7%PBT 6.2% 5.9% 6.5% 6.9% 7.6%Net Profit 4.1% 4.4% 4.9% 5.3% 5.8%

    ROE 10.5% 20.4% 18.3% 14.6% 15.2%ROA 2.7% 5.8% 6.3% 5.8% 6.7%

    Balance SheetFixed Assets 571.2 554.1 853.1 729.9 720.2Current Assets 813.3 1006.0 1276.1 1364.9 1407.8Total Assets 1384.4 1560.1 2129.2 2094.9 2128.0Current Liabilities 602.6 724.6 811.5 725.7 646.3Net Current Assets 210.7 281.4 464.6 639.3 761.5LT Liabilities 287.2 234.0 364.3 324.6 332.6Shareholders Funds 372.0 470.0 790.8 876.4 980.9Net Gearing (%) 101.5% 75.2% 62.2% 32.6% 19.2%

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    HEKTAR REIT (BUY, TP- RM0.99)

    Fair degree of interest. Hektar REIT received a fairly good response from the invited guests, particularly the

    insurance funds. As expected, despite its lip-smacking valuation and dividend yield, questions were raised as

    to how well the trust would be able to at least maintain most of this dividend payout especially in the face of the

    current economic downturn. Those who were more familiar with Subang and Mahkota Parades since many

    years ago openly expressed how impressed they were to the improvements done by the management to themalls since they were acquired in recent years.

    Fig. 8: Mr. Lim Ye Jhen of Hektar Asset

    Management

    Source : OSK

    Relatively more defensive earnings model. Answering the question on how well the trust will continue to be

    able to maintain most of its current attractive dividend payout hinges on its relatively more resilient earnings

    model vis--vis those of other non-residential real estate classes during a downturn, as summarised in the

    following:

    ! Shopping malls a safer bet? Unlike other real estate sub-segments, retail tenants usually have

    relatively lower bargaining power because their main business, i.e. retailing, and prospects

    depend very much on being in a particular shopping mall. Moving premises, or even to another

    shopping lot, may significantly disrupt business as customers may not necessarily follow. Plus, a

    lower-grade shopping mall may not attract clientele with the same buying power. Hence, the

    rental rates of shopping malls, at least those in prime locations, should hold up better relative to

    those in other real estate sub-segments.

    ! Consumer-driven tenants and diversified tenant base. It has a well-diversified tenant base

    and a healthy mix of consumer-driven tenants who are more focused on providing daily

    necessities to the residents in their vicinity. During a downturn, consumers may cut down on

    discretionary items but are unlikely to do the same for essentials and daily consumables. With the

    exception of Parkson, no other tenant contributes >3.0% of the REITs total monthly income.

    ! Well-managed tenancy expiry dates. Hektar REIT has a reasonably well-managed distribution

    of tenancy expiry dates. All assets combined its tenancy expiry dates make up no more than 23%

    of its monthly rental income for CY09.

    Ability to pre-empt most adverse situations. The incorporation of turnover rents (a tenancy model which

    entails fixing a certain percentage of a tenants monthly or periodic sales turnover, usually with a specifiedsales threshold), which account for >90% of its tenants in Subang and Mahkota Parades, compels a retailer to

    provide management with info on their monthly turnover. This indirectly allows management to analyse the

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    occupancy cost (i.e. rental income over tenancy sales) of its tenants. According to the management, once the

    occupancy cost hits 20%, there is a likelihood of a retailer becoming unprofitable with further rental increases

    and this limits their future participation in the mall as well as constrain managements ability to raise rental

    rates. Thus, this enables Hektar to pre-empt any situation that may adversely affect profitability.

    Further assets acquisition unlikely in the near-term. Given its current gearing level of 40.8%, Hektar REIT

    can only leverage a further RM67.6m before hitting the statutory gearing limit of 50%, which is insufficient to

    acquire a decent size neighbourhood shopping mall. The possibility of being able to acquire a yield-accretiveasset by way of raising capital from the equity market could be very slim, given its current depressed share

    price and high dividend yield of approximately 12%.

    Maintain BUY. Given its relatively more defensive earnings and attractive dividend yield of 11.7%,

    representing a 747 basis point spread over the 10-year MGS yield of 4.23%, we continue to advocate a BUY

    on Hektar. We are not concerned over any refinancing risks as all its borrowings are for the long-term and will

    only mature post 2010.

    *13 months results. FY07 and FY08 Net profit include exceptional gains of RM43.8m andRM24.1m respectively from revaluation of investment properties.**Gearing is equivalent to Borrowings over Gross Asset Value

    KOSSAN (BUY, TP- RM4.48)

    Concentrating on nitrile gloves. We understand that the total nitrile glove production in 2008 came in at

    2.7bn pieces, representing only 25% of its product mix. However, with the commissioning of 22 new lines

    capable of adding another 2.0bn pieces of nitrile gloves, this effectively increases Kossans product mix of

    nitrile glove to 40%. Other than yielding a higher margin of 2%-3%, nitrile gloves are preferred in the medical

    industry because they are more chemical and oil resistant, and are also protein-free.

    Increasing production of higher value products. Kossan is striving to produce better nitrile gloves thorough

    continuous improvements in technology. For example, its new nitrile glove, Chemax, provides better

    protection and possesses a feel that is closer to that of natural rubber gloves than entry level nitrile gloves.

    Also, it is lighter and uses less raw material (i.e. latex), which brings down the cost of production and in turn

    boosts gross margin. As it also fetches a higher price (about US$1 higher to US$27-29), it contributes to

    margin improvement.

    No major line expansion. Since the 22 new lines will only start to contribute from January 2009, management

    does not intend to pursue further expansion this year. As for 2010, new lines would only be set up if there isrecovery in global economy and firmer demand for gloves. However, management prefers to refurbish its

    existing lines, especially those with a length of 60m to 130m, which could effectively improve their production

    FYE Dec (RMm) *FY07 FY08 FY09f FY10f FY11

    Turnover 78.33 84.09 86.19 88.40 90.44EBITDA 44.89 47.45 51.96 53.09 54.36

    PBT 80.52 60.34 37.96 39.09 40.36Net Profit 80.52 60.34 37.96 39.09 40.36EPS (sen) 25.16 18.86 11.86 12.21 12.61DPS (sen) 10.71 10.20 10.70 11.00 11.40

    MarginEBITDA 57.30 56.43 60.28 60.05 60.11PBT 102.80 71.75 44.04 44.21 44.63Net Profit 102.80 71.75 44.04 44.21 44.63

    ROE 43.02 15.54 9.40 9.59 9.81ROA 27.40 9.10 5.14 5.28 5.44

    Balance SheetFixed Assets 559.40 713.40 713.40 713.40 713.40Current Assets 28.40 24.71 26.56 27.58 29.27Total Assets 587.80 738.11 739.96 740.98 742.67

    Current Liabilities 29.41 34.51 32.75 29.95 27.89LT Liabilities 184.00 301.50 301.50 301.50 301.50Shareholders Funds 374.39 402.10 405.82 409.71 413.59Gearing (%) 31.30 40.85 40.75 40.69 40.60

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    by 50%-60%. The advantage of refurbishing is that it requires minimal capex spending of RM3m-RM35m

    compared to setting up a new plant, which would require a minimum capex of RM50-RM60m.

    Fig. 9: Mr. Edward Yip of Kossan

    Source : OSK

    Maintain BUY. Our target price for Kossan of RM4.48 is based on PER of 9x FY10 earnings. We like the

    company for its manufacturing efficiency, with an average utilisation rate of above 90% over the past 5 years.

    Also, the company has the technology and capacity to go up the value chain to produce more nitrile gloves,

    which yield margins that are higher than that from conventional natural rubber gloves.

    FYE Dec (RMm) FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09f FY10f

    Turnover 573.9 702.6 893.1 977.5 1,061.8EBITDA 74.4 90.3 107.1 122.8 139.6PBT 48.6 58.3 73.1 82.6 97.0Net Profit 39.6 55.1 59.3 67.8 79.6EPS (sen) 24.8 34.5 37.1 42.4 49.8DPS (sen) 6.5 8.0 10.0 12.0 13.0

    MarginEBITDA 13.0% 12.9% 11.5% 12.6% 13.1%PBT 8.5% 8.3% 8.2% 8.5% 9.1%Net Profit 6.9% 7.8% 6.6% 6.9% 7.5%

    ROE 22.6% 24.9% 21.5% 20.8% 20.7%ROA 10.5% 11.3% 10.0% 10.2% 11.2%

    Balance SheetFixed Assets 232.0 284.9 362.3 321.7 338.2Current Assets 202.7 252.0 291.2 348.1 407.6Total Assets 434.8 536.9 653.5 669.8 745.9

    Current Liabilities 185.5 242.8 288.9 300.7 312.6Net Current Assets 17.3 9.2 2.3 47.4 95.1LT Liabilities 57.9 42.3 64.7 37.0 37.0Shareholders' Fund 190.9 251.4 299.5 353.1 417.2Net Gearing (%) 71.8% 57.6% 54.3% 42.3% 31.4%

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    OSK Research

    APPENDIX 1-4

    Market Capitalisation of the Top 50 (RMm) Return on Equity (ROE) of the Top 50 (%)

    0 300 600 900

    CBS!Technology

    LTKM!

    TASCO

    Century!Logistics!Cheetah

    !

    Efficient!E"Solutions !Freight!Management

    Ajiya!

    Yi"Lai !

    Help!International !

    Kawan!Food!

    Favelle!Favco!

    MaSteel!

    New!Hoong!Fatt!

    Adventa !

    Can"One!

    Frontken!Corp!

    Pantech!Eng

    !Kah

    !

    NV!Multi

    Leader !Universal!

    EPIC

    Petra!Energy!

    TRC!Synergy!

    Sino!Hua"An

    Plenitude!

    TMC!Life!Sciences!

    Tanjung!Offshore!

    Pelikan!

    Hock!Seng!Lee

    Hai "O!

    Hektar!REIT

    CCM!Duopharma

    !

    Coastal!Contracts!

    Padini !

    NTPM!

    Progressive!Impact!

    Naim!Cendera!

    Alam!Maritim!

    Lion!Industries !

    Mudajaya!

    Kossan!

    Hartalega!

    Kian!Joo

    KPJ!Healthcare!

    MBM!Resources

    Wah!Seong

    !

    QL!Resources

    CCM

    Litrak

    0 % 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%

    Lion!Industries!

    Sino!Hua"An

    CCM

    Yi"Lai !LTKM

    !

    Leader!Universal!

    MaSteel!

    TASCO

    Tanjung!Offshore!

    TMC!Life!Sciences !

    EPIC

    Favelle!Favco!

    Pelikan!

    Hektar!REIT

    Century!Logistics!

    Frontken!Corp!

    Plenitude!

    Kian!JooNV

    !Multi

    Can"One!

    Naim!Cendera !

    New!Hoong!Fatt!

    Adventa!

    MBM!Resources

    Cheetah!

    Ajiya!

    Eng!Kah !

    Wah!Seong!

    Kawan!Food!

    Petra!Energy!

    Litrak

    CBS!TechnologyProgressive

    !Impact

    !

    Freight!Management

    Alam!Maritim!

    Help!International!

    Efficient!E"Solutions !

    KPJ!Healthcare!

    Hock!Seng!Lee

    TRC!Synergy!

    NTPM!

    Kossan!

    Mudajaya!

    QL!Resources

    Coastal !Contracts !

    CCM!Duopharma!

    Padini!

    Pantech!

    Hartalega !

    Hai "O!

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    OSK Research

    FY09 PER of the Top 50 (x) FY09 Dividend Yields of the Top 50 (%)

    0 10 20 30 40

    Lion!Industries!

    TMC!Life!Sciences !

    Progressive!Impact!

    CCM

    Eng!Kah

    !

    Litrak

    Kawan!Food!

    NTPM!

    Tanjung!Offshore!

    Sino!Hua"An

    QL!Resources

    CBS!Technology

    CCM!Duopharma !

    NV!Multi

    Kian!Joo

    LTKM!

    Hektar!REIT

    Favelle!Favco!Help

    !International

    !

    Kossan!

    Yi"Lai !

    Frontken!Corp!

    EPIC

    Hartalega!

    Mudajaya !

    Wah!Seong!

    KPJ!Healthcare!

    Padini!

    Hock!Seng!Lee

    Hai "O!

    Century!Logistics!

    MBM!Resources

    Plenitude!

    Adventa!

    Cheetah!

    Alam!Maritim!

    Pelikan!

    Freight!Management

    New!Hoong!Fatt!

    Naim!Cendera !

    Efficient!E"Solutions!

    TRC!Synergy!

    Petra!Energy!

    Can "One!

    TASCO

    MaSteel!

    Leader!Universal !

    Ajiya!

    Pantech!

    Coastal !Contracts !

    0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14%

    CBS!Technology

    Efficient!E"

    Frontken!Corp!

    Sino!Hua"An

    TMC!Life

    !Sciences

    !

    Mudajaya !

    Alam!Maritim!

    Lion!Industries!

    Petra!Energy!

    Coastal !Contracts !

    Progressive!Impact!

    Help!International!

    Tanjung!Offshore!

    Kawan!Food!

    QL!Resources

    Litrak

    Pelikan!

    Favelle!Favco!TRC

    !Synergy

    !

    Kossan!

    MaSteel !

    Can "One!

    Hartalega!

    MBM!Resources

    Hock!Seng!Lee

    Ajiya!

    Naim!Cendera !

    NV!Multi

    Eng!Kah!

    Cheetah!

    Plenitude!

    Wah!Seong!

    Leader!Universal !

    Adventa!

    Century!Logistics!

    New!Hoong!Fatt!

    TASCO

    KPJ!Healthcare!

    Kian!Joo

    CCM

    EPIC

    Freight

    Padini!

    NTPM!

    Pantech!

    LTKM!

    Yi"Lai !

    CCM!Duopharma !

    Hai "O!

    Hektar!REIT

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    OSK Research

    OSK Research Guide to Investment Ratings

    Buy: Share price may exceed 10% over the next 12 months

    Trading Buy: Share price may exceed 15% over the next 3 months, however longer-term outlook remains uncertain

    Neutral: Share price may fall within the range of +/- 10% over the next 12 months

    Take Profit: Target price has been attained. Look to accumulate at lower levels

    Sell: Share price may fall by more than 10% over the next 12 months

    Not Rated: Stock is not within regular research coverage

    All research is based on material compiled from data considered to be reliable at the time of writing. However, information and opinions expressedwill be subject to change at short notice, and no part of this report is to be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to transact any securities orfinancial instruments whether referred to herein or otherwise. We do not accept any liability directly or indirectly that may arise from investmentdecision-making based on this report. The company, its directors, officers, employees and/or connected persons may periodically hold an interestand/or underwriting commitments in the securities mentioned.

    All Rights Reserved. No part of this publication may be used or re-produced without expressed permission from OSK Research.Published and printed by :-

    OSK RESEARCH SDN. BHD. (206591-V)(A wholly-owned subsidiary of OSK Investment Bank Berhad)

    Chris Eng

    Kuala Lumpur Hong Kong Singapore Jakarta Shanghai

    Hong Kong OfficeOSK SecuritiesHong Kong Ltd.

    1201-1203, 12/F,World-Wide House

    19 Des Voeux RoadCentral, Hong Kong

    Tel : + (852) 2525 1118Fax : + (852) 2537 1332

    Malaysia Research OfficeOSK Research Sdn. Bhd.

    6th Floor, Plaza OSKJalan Ampang

    50450 Kuala LumpurMalaysia

    Tel : +(60) 3 9207 7688Fax : +(60) 3 2175 3202

    Singapore OfficeDMG & Partners

    Securities Pte. Ltd.#22-01 Ocean Towers

    20 Raffles PlaceSingapore 048620

    Tel : +(65) 6438 8810Fax : +(65) 6535 4809

    Shanghai OfficeOSK (China) Investment

    Advisory Co. LtdRoom 6506, Plaza 66

    No. 1266 West Nanjing Road200040, Shanghai

    ChinaTel : +(8621) 6288 9611

    Fax : + (8621) 6288 9633

    Jakarta OfficePT OSK NusadanaSecurities Indonesia

    Plaza Lippo, 14th Floor,Jl. Jend. Sudirman Kav. 25.

    Jakarta 12920Indonesia

    Tel : + (6221) 520 4599Fax : + (6221) 520 4505