our fundamental goal of debt management policy is to ... · ohyama, section chief, visited...

15
What’s New: Central Government Debt (As of December 31, 2017) p. 2 The Ministry of Finance released the update on central government debt. Outstanding government bonds and borrowings increased to 1,085.8 trillion yen from the end of September (1,080.4 trillion yen) by 5.3 trillion yen. Monthly Topic: Economic & Fiscal Projections for Med.- to Long-term Analysis p. 3 The Cabinet Office published its “Economic and Fiscal Projections for Medium to Long Term Analysis” on January 23, 2018. In the Economic Growth Achieved Case, primary balance (ratio to nominal GDP) is projected to be -1.8% (10.8 trillion yen) in 2020, and achieve primary surplus in 2027. Monthly Topic: Quarterly Estimates of GDP Oct.-Dec. 2017 p. 4 The first preliminary GDP estimate (Oct. – Dec. 2017) was released on February 14. Real GDP expanded by 0.1% (annual rate 0.5%) from the previous quarter. Real GDP has grown for 8 consecutive quarters. IR Office: To US and Asia p. 5 Our IR activities in February: We visited US and Asia. (Statistics) JGB Primary Market p. 6 Liquidity Enhancement Auctions and JGB Buy-Back p. 7 JGB Secondary Market p. 8 Investor Trends and JGB Outstanding p. 10 Economic and Financial Trends p. 14 Information p. 15 Monthly Newsletter of the Ministry of Finance, Japan JAPANESE GOVERNMENT BONDS SUMMARY The Ministry of Finance www.mof.go.jp Our fundamental goal of debt management policy is to achieve stable and smooth financing for our national accounts and to minimize medium-to-long term financing costs. March 2018 -1-

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Page 1: Our fundamental goal of debt management policy is to ... · Ohyama, Section Chief, visited Washington, DC, and New York to meet with investors, international organizations, and debt

What’s New: Central Government Debt (As of December 31, 2017) p. 2 The Ministry of Finance released the update on central government debt.

Outstanding government bonds and borrowings increased to 1,085.8 trillion yen from the end of September (1,080.4 trillion yen) by 5.3 trillion yen.

Monthly Topic: Economic & Fiscal Projections for Med.- to Long-term Analysis p. 3 The Cabinet Office published its “Economic and Fiscal Projections for Medium to Long

Term Analysis” on January 23, 2018.

In the Economic Growth Achieved Case, primary balance (ratio to nominal GDP) is projected to be -1.8% (10.8 trillion yen) in 2020, and achieve primary surplus in 2027.

Monthly Topic: Quarterly Estimates of GDP Oct.-Dec. 2017 p. 4 The first preliminary GDP estimate (Oct. – Dec. 2017) was released on February 14.

Real GDP expanded by 0.1% (annual rate 0.5%) from the previous quarter. Real GDP has grown for 8 consecutive quarters.

IR Office: To US and Asia p. 5 Our IR activities in February: We visited US and Asia.

(Statistics) JGB Primary Market … p. 6 Liquidity Enhancement Auctions and JGB Buy-Back … p. 7

JGB Secondary Market … p. 8 Investor Trends and JGB Outstanding … p. 10

Economic and Financial Trends … p. 14 Information … p. 15

Monthly Newsletter of the Ministry of Finance, Japan JAPANESE GOVERNMENT BONDS

SUMMARY

The Ministry of Finance www.mof.go.jp

Our fundamental goal of debt management policy is to achieve stable and smooth financing for our national accounts and to minimize medium-to-long term financing costs.

March 2018

-1-

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Central Government Debt (As of December 31, 2017)

On February 9, the Ministry of Finance released the update on central government debt. Debt outstanding and composition as of the end of December 2017 are as follows.

The end of December 2017

(Actual)

Increase or Decrease(-) from

the End of the Previous Quarter

1) Outstanding Government Bonds and Borrowings

General Bonds 851.3 5.8

FILP Bonds 92.9 0.4

Borrowings, Subsidy Bonds, etc. 65.8 1.1

FBs 75.8 -2.0

Total 1,085.8 5.3

2) Outstanding Government-Guaranteed Debts

Government-Guaranteed Debts 40.7 0.1

The end of Dec. 2017 (Actual)

Increase or Decrease(-) from

the End of the Previous Quarter

The end of Mar. 2018 (Estimate)

① General Bonds 851.3 5.8 Approx. 864

② FILP Bonds Not included Not included Not included

③ Borrowings, Subsidy Bonds, etc. 28.1 0.1 Approx. 29

④ FBs Not included Not included Not included

Long-term debt outstanding of central governments 879.5 5.9 Approx. 893

⑤ Long-term debt outstanding of local governments - Approx. 195

Long-term debt outstanding of central and local governments - Approx. 1,087

-2-

(trillion yen)

Notes: 1. Figures may not sum up to the total because of rounding. 2. Above "Outstanding Government Bonds and Borrowings" includes government bonds and borrowings held by government. 3. Figures are total of the general account and all special accounts, and the coverage is different from the central government defined in SNA. 4. The data as of March 31, 2018 will be released on May 10, 2018. Details: http://www.mof.go.jp/english/jgbs/reference/gbb/e201712.html

<Main Points> 1. Outstanding government bonds and borrowings increased to 1,085.8 trillion yen from the

end of September (1,080.4 trillion yen) by 5.3 trillion yen. This is mainly because the total for general bonds increased by 5.8 trillion yen and that for Fiscal Investment and Loan Program Bonds (FILP Bonds) increased by 0.4 trillion yen.

2. Long-term outstanding central government debt, which does not include FILP bonds, Financing Bills (FBs) and some of the borrowings related to local governments, increased to 879.5 trillion yen from the end of September (873.6 trillion yen) by 5.9 trillion yen.

Notes: The borrowings of the Special Account for Allotment of Local Allocation Tax and Local Transfer Tax (end of FY2017:approx.¥32trillion) are included in [⑤Long-term debt outstanding of local governments] because the burden of redemption funds falls on local governments.

1. Central Government Debt

2. Long-term debt outstanding of central and local governments The MOF has announced the “Long-term debt outstanding of central and local governments” whose interest payments and redemption funds are mainly to be covered by tax revenues, from the viewpoint of transparency of fiscal management. The statistics are derived by adding the long-term debt outstanding of local governments to the above mentioned Central Government Debt, while excluding FILP Bonds and FBs.

(trillion yen)

What’s new

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In the Economic Growth Achieved Case, primary balance (ratio to nominal GDP) is projected to be -1.8% (10.8 trillion yen) in 2020, and achieve primary surplus in 2027, two years behind the last projection (July 2017).

The ratio of outstanding debt to GDP is projected to decline afterward in the Economic Growth Achieved Case*. On the contrary, in the Baseline Case, it is projected to decline to slower pace in for mid-2020s and turn to increase after 2027.

1. Economic and Fiscal Projections for Medium- to Long-term Analysis On January 23, 2018, the Cabinet Office published its “Economic and Fiscal Projections for Medium to Long

term Analysis” with the revised scenarios.

(FY) 〈Revision of the scenarios of economic situations〉

The Ratio of Outstanding debt to GDP (% of GDP)

② BaselineCaseThe economy will grow approximately at the current potential growth rate. The medium to long term growth rate is projected to be low 1% in real terms and high 1% in nominal terms.

①Economic Growth Achieved Case

Economic Revitalization Case Economic Growth Achieved Case

Real GDP Growth Over 2% at FY2020 Achieve 2.4% at the beginning of 2020s

1.5% at FY2020

Achieve 2% at the early 2020s

The year when the Nominal GDP reaches 600 trillion yen

FY2020 FY2021

CPI (Rate of Change) Achieve 2% at FY2020 Achieve 2% at FY2021

Economic Growth Achieved Case(January 2018)The policies of Abenomics for overcoming deflation and attaining economic revitalization show solid results at a more feasiblepace

※Assumption for TFP growth rateTFP growth rate rises from the current level(0.6%) to around

2.2%, the historical average before the Japanese economy entered deflation

【Medium to Long term Economic Projections】

※Assumption for TFP growth rateTFP growth rate rises from the current level(0.7%) to around

1.5%, based on the extent and pace the Japanese economy had actually experienced before it entered deflation

【Outline for Scenario】Economic Revitalization case(July 2017)Japanese economy will return to the performance before deflation at the beginning of 2020s.

URL: http://www5.cao.go.jp/keizai1/2018/h30pointeng01.pdf

(%)

-3-

MONTHLY TOPIC

Central and Local Governments: Primary Balance (% of GDP)

[Provisional Translation of the original document in Japanese]

*It should be noted that the existing bonds issued at lower interest rates will be refinanced at higher interest rates sequentially with the long term nominal interest rate rising.

(%)

-5.5 %

-2.9 %-2.2 %

-1.8 %-1.7 %

-0.5 %0.1 %

-2.9 %-2.3 %

-1.9 %-1.8 % -1.5 % -1.3 %

-7

-6

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

Target : -3.2%Economic Growth Achieved Case

Baseline Case

(FY)

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1.1

-0.6-0.4

0.2

1.1 0.90.8

-0.0

0.8

-1.8

-0.0

0.7

1.3

0.1 0.1-0.1

0.50.3 0.2

0.40.3

0.6 0.6

0.1

-3.0

-2.5

-2.0

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

(%)

Private Demand Public DemandForeign Demand Real GDP

Contributions to change from the previous quarter (Seasonally adjusted)

2. Quarterly Estimates of GDP Oct.–Dec. 2017

The first preliminary GDP estimate (Oct. – Dec. 2017) was released on February 14. Real GDP expanded by 0.1% (annual rate 0.5%) from the previous quarter. Real GDP has grown for 8 consecutive quarters. Domestic demand contributed 0.1% points. Contribution of domestic demand was positive for 5 consecutive quarters. Private consumption increased by 0.5% after a 0.6% decline in July-September, supported by the improvement of

employment and wage conditions. Private non-residential investment increased for 5 consecutive quarters on the back of record-high corporate earnings.

Development of Real GDP (Quarterly, seasonally adjusted series)

MONTHLY TOPIC

Note 1: Change from the previous quarter (seasonally adjusted) Note 2: Annual rate Note 3: The Figures in () indicate contributions to changes in GDP. Source: Cabinet Office, Government of Japan

Source: Cabinet Office, Government of Japan

Note 1

Note 2 (%)

2016 201710~12 1~3 4~6 7~9 10~12

0.4 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.1 *** 0.50.1 0.2 0.9 0.0 0.1 *** 0.6

(0.1) (0.2) (0.9) (0.0) *** (0.1) ***0.3 0.3 0.9 0.2 0.3 (0.2) 1.10.1 0.3 0.9 -0.6 0.5 (0.3) 1.90.0 0.3 0.9 -0.7 0.5 (0.3) 1.9

Excluding Imputed Rent -0.0 0.3 1.1 -0.9 0.5 (0.2) 2.10.8 1.2 0.9 -1.5 -2.7 (-0.1) -10.21.6 0.1 1.2 1.0 0.7 (0.1) 2.8

(-0.1) (-0.0) (-0.1) (0.4) *** (-0.1) ***-0.5 0.1 1.2 -0.5 -0.2 (-0.1) -0.9-0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 -0.1 (-0.0) -0.5-1.8 -0.2 4.7 -2.6 -0.5 (-0.0) -2.1

(-0.0) (0.0) (0.0) (-0.0) *** (-0.0) ***(0.4) (0.1) (-0.3) (0.5) *** (-0.0) ***

Private Residential InvestmentPrivate Non-Resi. InvestmentChange in Private Inventories

Public DemandGovernment ConsumptionPublic InvestmentChange in Public Inventories

Net Exports of Goods & Services

201710~12

Gross Domestic Product

Domestic Demand

Private DemandPrivate Consumption

Consumption of Households

-4-

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On February 7, 2018, Mr. Furuya, Deputy Director-General of the Financial Bureau, attended a panel discussion at the Japan Securities Summit 2018 in New York. Mr. Furuya stated that Japan has achieved steady growth in recent years. To achieve sustainable growth, the Cabinet formulated a new policy package in December 2017, the two main pillars of which are the Human Resources Development Revolution and the Productivity Revolution. Also, he stressed that we must continue the efforts toward fiscal consolidation, though the gap between total expenditure and revenue has been narrowed. Finally, he explained the FY2018 JGB issuance plan, describing that the issuance amounts by maturity type have been reduced in well-balanced manners, and that Liquidity Enhancement Auctions have been increased to improve the liquidity of the JGB market.

Before and after the panel discussion, Mr. Furuya, Mr. Nakatsui, Deputy Director, and Ms. Ohyama, Section Chief, visited Washington, DC, and New York to meet with investors, international organizations, and debt management authorities. During these meetings, we exchanged views on the Japanese economy, the JGB market and debt management policy. Thanks to their broad knowledge of and deep insight into the financial market, the meetings were very stimulating and informative to us. We are very grateful for their cooperation and generosity.

During the fifth week of January, Ms. Kimata, Director for Debt Management and JGB Investor Relations, and Mr. Otera, Researcher, visited Hong Kong, Bandar Seri Begawan (Brunei Darussalam), and Jakarta (Indonesia) to have meetings with overseas investors. Our visit to Brunei and Indonesia was the first time in five years. However, thanks to their deep understanding about the Japanese economy, we had dense discussions. We would like to express our gratitude to them for taking their precious time. On this meaningful tour, we were able to experience an exotic world by seeing the sacred Mosque, too. *On a different note, we assume you know someone who has lost a bag on a flight. Yes, it was our turn. But luckily, all the presentation

materials were in our carry-on bag and we were able to continue our schedule as planned. In the end, the bag came back and we

completed our trip.

-5-

IR OFFICE

If you have any questions regarding the contents of this newsletter, please do not hesitate to contact us at: [email protected]

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Auction Results

(Bonds)

Auction Date Type of Security Issue Number Maturity Date Nominal

Coupon

Amounts of Competitive

Bids (billion yen)

Amounts of Bids

Accepted (billion yen)

Yield at the Lowest

Accepted Price

Yield at the Average

Price

Amounts of Non-Competitive Bids Tendered

/Accepted (billion yen)

Amounts of Bids Accepted at the

Non-price- competitive Auction Ⅰ (billion yen)

Amounts of Bids Accepted at the

Non-price- competitive Auction Ⅱ (billion yen)

12/5/2017 10-year 349 12/20/2027 0.1% 7,032.7 1,898.5 0.064% 0.059% 0.762 400.1 159.9 12/7/2017 30-year 57 12/20/2047 0.8% 2,816.7 643.5 0.850% 0.848% - 155.5 118.5 12/12/2017 5-year 134 12/20/2022 0.1% 7,829.3 1,787.0 ▲0.102% ▲0.104% - 412.2 329.2 12/14/2017 20-year 163 12/20/2037 0.6% 3,678.7 806.5 0.574% 0.573% - 192.9 139.2 12/26/2017 2-year 384 1/15/2020 0.1% 7,854.2 1,818.4 ▲0.131% ▲0.136% - 380.9 322.2 1/10/2018 10-year 349 12/20/2027 0.1% 6,925.3 1,850.7 0.079% 0.078% 0.386 448.1 167.5 1/12/2018 40-year 10 3/20/2057 0.9% 1,835.4 499.6 0.985% - - - 72.5 1/16/2018 5-year 134 12/20/2022 0.1% 9,354.6 1,786.7 ▲0.082% ▲0.084% - 412.2 210.8 1/18/2018 30-year 57 12/20/2047 0.8% 2,475.0 657.0 0.837% 0.832% - 142.1 - 1/25/2018 20-year 163 12/20/2037 0.6% 3,350.6 804.3 0.594% 0.592% - 194.4 70.2 1/30/2018 2-year 385 2/15/2020 0.1% 8,890.7 1,770.3 ▲0.129% ▲0.130% - 428.8 192.6 2/1/2018 10-year 349 12/20/2027 0.1% 8,818.8 1,923.7 0.090% 0.088% 0.386 374.8 157.4 2/6/2018 10-year Inflation-Indexed Bonds 22 3/10/2027 0.1% 1,352.7 400.0 ▲0.464% - - - 40.8 2/8/2018 30-year 57 12/20/2047 0.8% 2,763.1 646.7 0.822% 0.820% - 152.1 113.1 2/14/2018 5-year 134 12/20/2022 0.1% 8,398.8 1,797.7 ▲0.093% ▲0.093% - 401.3 281.8 2/22/2018 20-year 163 12/20/2037 0.6% 3,595.4 809.0 0.563% 0.561% - 189.8 147.1 2/27/2018 2-year 386 3/15/2020 0.1% 10,387.0 1,779.5 ▲0.159% ▲0.160% - 419.8 187.4

Auction Results

(Treasury Discount Bills)

Auction Date Type of Security Issue Number Maturity Date

Amounts of Competitive Bids

(billion yen)

Amounts of Bids Accepted

(billion yen)

Yield at the Lowest

Accepted Price

Yield at the Average

Price

Amounts of Bids Accepted at the

Non-price- competitive Auction Ⅰ (billion yen)

12/6/2017 6-month 725 6/11/2018 9,732.90 1,868.79 ▲0.1382% ▲0.1442% 431.20 12/7/2017 3-month 726 3/19/2018 19,769.30 3,579.85 ▲0.1414% ▲0.1522% 840.10 12/14/2017 3-month 727 3/26/2018 11,463.70 3,538.97 ▲0.1786% ▲0.1954% 831.00 12/18/2017 1-year 728 12/20/2018 10,291.70 1,910.27 ▲0.1497% ▲0.1547% 389.70 12/20/2017 3-month 729 4/5/2018 13,572.40 3,545.27 ▲0.1751% ▲0.1881% 814.70 1/5/2018 3-month 730 4/9/2018 15,999.70 3,532.48 ▲0.1373% ▲0.1484% 817.50 1/10/2018 6-month 731 7/10/2018 10,307.90 1,908.84 ▲0.1243% ▲0.1324% 391.10 1/11/2018 3-month 732 4/16/2018 14,983.90 3,583.16 ▲0.1162% ▲0.1251% 776.80 1/17/2018 1-year 733 1/21/2019 9,750.90 1,879.47 ▲0.1371% ▲0.1401% 420.50 1/18/2018 3-month 734 4/23/2018 16,649.70 3,588.86 ▲0.1443% ▲0.1559% 831.10 1/25/2018 3-month 735 5/1/2018 15,216.90 3,566.55 ▲0.1487% ▲0.1554% 823.40 2/1/2018 3-month 736 5/7/2018 15,839.90 3,577.95 ▲0.1503% ▲0.1595% 842.00 2/7/2018 6-month 737 8/10/2018 9,728.50 1,888.76 ▲0.1454% ▲0.1495% 411.20 2/8/2018 3-month 738 5/14/2018 15,970.80 3,629.04 ▲0.1479% ▲0.1524% 790.90 2/15/2018 3-month 739 5/21/2018 19,493.30 3,603.72 ▲0.1563% ▲0.1607% 836.20 2/16/2018 1-year 740 2/20/2019 10,826.40 1,867.18 ▲0.1607% ▲0.1627% 432.80 2/22/2018 3-month 741 5/28/2018 17,187.30 3,538.87 ▲0.1764% ▲0.1880% 821.10

Auction Calendar for Mar. 2018 – May 2018 Auction Date Issue Auction Date Issue Auction Date Issue Auction Date Issue

3/1(Thu) T-Bills (3-month) 3/27(Tue) 40-year 4/19(Thu) T-Bills (3-month) 5/17(Thu) 5-year

3/1(Thu) 10-year 3/29(Thu) 2-year 4/19(Thu) 20-year 5/18(Fri) T-Bills (3-month)

3/6(Tue) 30-year 4/3(Tue) T-Bills (3-month) 4/24(Tue) 2-year 5/22(Tue) 20-year

3/7(Wed) T-Bills (6-month) 4/3(Tue) 10-year 4/26(Thu) T-Bills (3-month) 5/24(Thu) Liquidity Enhancement Auction (remaining maturities of 5-15.5 years)

3/8(Thu) T-Bills (3-month) 4/5(Thu) T-Bills (3-month) 5/2(Wed) T-Bills (3-month) 5/25(Fri) T-Bills (3-month)

3/8(Thu) Liquidity Enhancement Auction (remaining maturities of 1-5 years) 4/5(Thu) Liquidity Enhancement Auction

(remaining maturities of 15.5-39 years) 5/2(Wed) Liquidity Enhancement Auction (remaining maturities of 1-5 years) 5/29(Tue) 40-year

3/13(Tue) 5-year 4/6(Fri) T-Bills (6-month) 5/8(Tue) 10-year 5/31(Thu) 2-year 3/15(Thu) T-Bills (3-month) 4/10(Tue) Liquidity Enhancement Auction

(remaining maturities of 5-15.5 years) 5/9(Wed) T-Bills (6-month) 3/15(Thu) 20-year 4/12(Thu) T-Bills (3-month) 5/10(Thu) 10-year Inflation-Indexed Bonds 3/16(Fri) T-Bills (1-year) 4/12(Thu) 30-year 5/11(Fri) T-Bills (3-month) 3/20(Tue) Liquidity Enhancement Auction

(remaining maturities of 5-15.5 years) 4/17(Tue) 5-year 5/15(Tue) 30-year 3/22(Thu) T-Bills (3-month) 4/18(Wed) T-Bills (1-year) 5/17(Thu) T-Bills (1-year)

Top 10 PDs by Total Purchase in Auctions (Calculated by Duration) (Jul. 2017 ~ Dec. 2017) 1 Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities Co., Ltd. 6 BNP Paribas Securities (Japan) Limited 2 Nomura Securities Co., Ltd. 7 Deutsche Securities lnc. 3 Daiwa Securities Co. Ltd. 8 SMBC Nikko Securities Inc. 4 Mizuho Securities Co., Ltd. 9 Goldman Sachs Japan Co., Ltd. 5 Merrill Lynch Japan Securities Co., Ltd. 10 Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities Co., Ltd.

JGB PRIMARY MARKET

Note.1: The above calendar may be changed or added in light of changes in circumstances. In such cases, it will be announced in advance. Note.2: Each issue amount will be announced about one week prior to each auction date.

(Until 28 February 2018)

(Until 28 February 2018)

-6-

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Results of Liquidity Enhancement Auctions

Auction Date Amounts of Competitive

Bids (billion yen)

Amounts of Bids

Accepted (billion yen)

Average Accepted Spread

Highest Accepted Spread

Issues Re-opened

12/19/2017 1,122.7 398.7 ▲0.007% ▲0.006%

20-year(145,149,152,162) 30-year(12, 13, 18, 20, 21, 22, 23, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 34, 36, 37, 40, 41, 42, 45, 47, 48, 49, 51, 54, 55, 56) 40-year(1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 7, 8, 9)

12/22/2017 1,722.5 549.5 ▲0.017% ▲0.015% 10-year(328, 329, 330, 333) 20-year(61, 62, 63, 64, 72, 73) 30-year(4)

1/5/2018 1,350.5 299.8 ▲0.033% ▲0.031% 5-year(125) 10-year(310) 20-year(44, 54)

1/22/2018 1,830.4 548.7 ▲0.008% ▲0.005% 10-year(329, 330, 331, 332, 348) 20-year(97, 100, 144, 145) 30-year(4, 6, 9, 11)

2/16/2018 1,114.8 398.2 ▲0.007% ▲0.006% 20-year(149, 150, 152,154, 155, 156) 30-year(13, 21, 30, 31, 32, 33, 34, 36, 40, 46, 47, 51, 52) 40-year(5, 7, 8, 9)

2/20/2018 2,087.4 548.9 ▲0.008% 0.001% 10-year(329, 334, 347, 348) 20-year(67, 69, 70, 71, 72, 73, 74, 77, 81, 83, 84, 94, 109, 123, 124, 125, 132, 133, 136, 137) 30-year(4)

Target Zones of Liquidity Enhancement Auctions for the Fourth Quarter of FY 2017

10-year Inflation-Indexed

Auction Date Amounts of

Competitive Bids (billion yen)

Amounts of Bids Accepted

(billion yen)

Average Accepted

Spread (yen)

Highest Accepted

Spread (yen) Issue Numbers

8/18/2017 126.7 20.0 ▲0.111 ▲0.08 22 10/20/2017 90.2 20.0 ▲0.182 ▲0.09 18, 19, 20, 22 12/11/2017 102.5 20.0 ▲0.004 0.05 18, 19, 20, 21, 22 2/13/2018 115.4 20.0 ▲0.211 ▲0.17 TBA

LIQUIDITY ENHANCEMENT AUCTIONS AND JGB BUY-BACK

①Remaining maturity : approx.1‐~5‐year

③Remaining maturity : approx.15.5‐~39‐year

Note1: JN shows 2‐year JGBs. JS shows 5‐year JGBs. JL shows 20‐year JGBs. JX shows 30‐year JGBs. JU shows 40‐year JGBs. Outstanding amount is as of the end of November 2017. Note2: All issues in the graph above will be eligible afterward.

Buy-back Results

(Until 28 February 2018)

(Until 28 February 2018)

②Remaining maturity : approx.5‐~15.5‐year

-7-

0500

1,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0004,5005,0005,5006,0006,5007,000

JN37

2

JN37

3

JN37

4

JS11

7

299

300

JL41

JL42

JN37

5

JN37

6

JN37

7

JS11

8

JS11

9

301

302

JN37

8

JN37

9

JN38

0

JS12

0

JS12

1

303

304

JL43

JN38

1

JN38

2

JS12

2

305

JS12

3

306

307

JL44

JL45

JS12

4

308

309

JL46

JS12

5

310

311

JL47

JS12

6

312

JL48

JS12

7

313

314

JL49

JL50

JS12

8

315

316

JL51

JS12

9

317

318

JL52

JS13

0

319

320

JL53

JL54

JS13

1

321

322

JL55

JS13

2

323

324

JL56

JL57

JS13

3

325

JL58 326

327

JL59

JL60

Amount issued by Liquidity Enhancement Auction Outstanding amount in the market (excluding amount issued by Liquidity Enhancement Auction)

1 2 5

(Remaining maturities)

(billion yen)

0500

1,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0004,5005,000

328

JL61 32

9JL

62JL

63 330

331

JL64 33

2JL

65JL

66 333

JL67

JL68

JL69 33

4JL

70JL

71 335

JL72 33

633

7JL

73JL

74 338

JL75

JL76

JL77 33

9JL

78JL

79JL

80 340

JL81

JL82 34

1JL

83JL

84 342

JL85

JL86

JL87 34

3JL

88JL

89 344

JL90

JL91 34

5JL

92 346

JL93

JL94 34

7JL

95JL

96 348

JL97

JL98

JL99

JL10

0JL

101

JL10

2JL

103

JL10

4JL

105

JL10

6JL

107

JL10

8JL

109

JL11

0JL

111

JL11

2JL

113

JX1

JL11

4JL

115

JX2

JL11

6JL

117

JX3

JL11

8JL

119

JL12

0JL

121

JL12

2JX

4JL

123

JL12

4JL

125

JL12

6JL

127

JX5

JL12

8JL

129

JL13

0JL

131

JX6

JL13

2JL

133

JL13

4JL

135

JL13

6JX

7JL

137

JL13

8JL

139

JL14

0JX

8JL

141

JL14

2JX

9JL

143

JL14

4JX

10JL

145

JX11

Amount issued by Liquidity Enhancement Auction Outstanding amount in the market (excluding amount issued by Liquidity Enhancement Auction)

5 1015.5

(Remaining maturities)

(billion yen)

0500

1,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,000

JL14

6

JX12

JL14

7

JX13

JL14

8

JX14

JL14

9

JX15

JL15

0

JX16

JL15

1

JX17

JL15

2

JX18

JL15

3

JX19

JL15

4

JX20

JL15

5

JX21

JL15

6

JX22

JL15

7

JX23

JL15

8

JX24

JL15

9

JX25

JL16

0

JX26

JL16

1

JL16

2

JX27

JX28

JX29

JX30

JX31

JX32

JX33

JX34

JX35

JX36

JX37

JX38

JX39

JX40

JX41

JX42

JX43

JX44

JX45

JX46

JX47

JX48

JX49

JX50

JX51

JX52

JX53

JX54

JX55

JX56 JU1

JU2

JU3

JU4

JU5

JU6

JU7

JU8

JU9

Amount issued by Liquidity Enhancement Auction Outstanding amount in the market (excluding amount issued by Liquidity Enhancement Auction)(billion yen)

(Remaining maturities)15.5 20 39

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-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18

Japan United States

United Kingdom Germany

-0.5%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18

2-year bond 5-year bond 10-year bond

20-year bond 30-year bond 40-year bond

-0.4%

-0.2%

0.0%

0.2%

0.4%

0.6%

0.8%

1.0%

1.2%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 Jan-18

Volatility Yield (right scale)

-0.4%

-0.2%

0.0%

0.2%

0.4%

0.6%

0.8%

1.0%

1.2%

2017/3/312017/6/302017/9/292017/11/302017/12/292018/1/31

40353020 25151050

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18

BEI (Japan : 10 year)

BEI (U.S.A. : 10 year)

BEI (U.K. : 10 year)

Note: BEI (Japan: 10 year) is calculated based on the compound interest rate of the new Inflation-Indexed Bonds and the 10-Year Bonds Source: Japan: Calculation by the Ministry of Finance based on the information on interest rates offered by NIKKEI QUICK.

U.S.A., U.K.: Bloomberg.

JGB SECONDARY MARKET JGB Yield Curves

Source: Japan Bond Trading Co.,Ltd.

Yields of JGB

Long - Term Interest Rates (10Yr) Source: Bloomberg

Source: Bloomberg

-8-

Yield and Volatility (10Yr)

Break-Even Inflation Rates

Source: Bloomberg, Calculation by the Ministry of Finance

(Until 31 January 2018)

(Until 31 January 2018)

(Until 31 January 2018)

(Until 31 January 2018)

Page 9: Our fundamental goal of debt management policy is to ... · Ohyama, Section Chief, visited Washington, DC, and New York to meet with investors, international organizations, and debt

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18

Bond-Lending

Bond-Gensaki

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

1,100

1,200

Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18

Treasury Discount BillsMedium Term BondsLong Term Bonds

-0.1%

0.0%

0.1%

0.2%

0.3%

0.4%

0.5%

Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18

Call Rate (Uncollateralized Overnight)

TIBOR 3-months (Euro-Yen)

Basic Loan Rate

Short-Term Interest Rates

Source: Bank of Japan, Japanese Bankers Association

JGB Over-the-Counter Trading Volume (TOKYO)

Trading Volume of 10-Year JGB Futures

Repurchase Transactions

-9-

Source: Japan Securities Dealers Association

Source: Tokyo Stock Exchange (until Mar.2014), Osaka Exchange (from Apr. 2014)

Source: Japan Securities Dealers Association

(trillion yen)

(trillion yen)

(trillion yen)

(Until 31 January 2018)

Page 10: Our fundamental goal of debt management policy is to ... · Ohyama, Section Chief, visited Washington, DC, and New York to meet with investors, international organizations, and debt

0

10

20

30

40

50

Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17

190200210220230240250260

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17

160

180

200

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

Apr-12 Nov-12 Jun-13 Jan-14 Aug-14 Mar-15 Oct-15 May-16 Dec-16 Jul-17

Total Assets

Monetary Base

JGBs

QQE2QQE(trillion yen)Apr 2013(Actual)

Jan 2018(Actual)

Monetary Base 155 477

JGBs 98 424

CP 1.4 2.2

Corporate Bonds 2.9 3.2

ETFs 1.7 17.7

J-REITs 0.13 0.45

Total Assets 175 527

Super long-term

Long-term

Medium-term

T-bills

-9.0

-7.0

-5.0

-3.0

-1.0

1.0

3.0

5.0

7.0

Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan

City Banks

Net Purchase

Net Sale

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan

Regional banks

Net Purchase

Net Sale

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan

Life and non-life insurance companies

Net Purchase

Net Sale

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

-4.0

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

18.0

20.0

22.0

24.0

Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan

Foreigners

Net Purchase

Net Sale

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

(unit: trillion yen)(unit: trillion yen)

(unit: trillion yen) (unit: trillion yen)

-10-

Trends in Bank Assets by Types

INVESTOR TRENDS AND JGB OUTSTANDING Trends in JGBs Transactions (by investor type)

BOJ Trends

Regional Banks City Banks

Source: Bank of Japan

(trillion yen) (trillion yen)

Loans

Cash and Deposits

Government Bonds

Municipal Bonds

Corporate Bonds

Equities

Foreign Securities

Source: Bank of Japan

Source: Japan Securities Dealers Association

Page 11: Our fundamental goal of debt management policy is to ... · Ohyama, Section Chief, visited Washington, DC, and New York to meet with investors, international organizations, and debt

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18

City Banks Trust Banks Insurance Companies Foreigners

-6

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17

Short-term debt securities Long-term debt securities Equity and investment fund shares

Net

Purchase

Net

Sales

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17

Short-term debt securities Long-term debt securities Equity and investment fund shares

Net

Purchase

Net

Sales

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17

Short-term debt securities Long-term debt securities Equity and investment fund shares

Net

Purchase

Net

Sales

59.1

63.3 67.9

55.2 55.6

55.0 52.2

49.3 46.4

52.1

58.1 56.6

61.8 67.8

77.0 78.3

76.7

81.8 86.1

82.6 81.9

81.7 79.0

83.8 81.5

83.9 87.2

93.0

97.7

94.9 100.5

108.5 110.3

111.6 113.6

114.9

116.6 117.0 119.7

7.3

7.9

8.5

6.8

6.9 6.7 6.3

5.9 5.5

6.0

6.6 6.4

7.0 7.5

8.3 8.5 8.3 8.6

9.0 8.5 8.4 8.4

8.0 8.4

8.1 8.2 8.6

9.1 9.4

9.1 9.6

10.4 10.2 10.1 10.4

10.6 10.8 10.8 11.0

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17

Amount of JGB Holdings (right)

Proportion of JGB Holdings (left)

(trillion yen)

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

11.0%

31.3%

53.9%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17

①Market Share of Foreign Investors (JGB Futures Market)

②Market Share of Foreign Investors (JGB Market)

③JGB Holdings by Foreign Investors

-11-

JGBs Holdings by Foreign Investors

Banks(Banking Accounts) Life Insurance Companies

Transactions of Domestic Securities by Non-Residents

Note: “JGB” includes T-Bills. Source: Bank of Japan

Source: Ministry of Finance Source: Japan Securities Dealers Association

Outstanding of Repurchase Agreements (by Investor types)

Transactions of Foreign Securities by Residents (by Investor types)

Source: Ministry of Finance

Foreign Investors Presence

Note.1: Quarterly basis. Note.2: “JGB” includes T-Bills. The figures of ②excludes dealers’ transactions. Source: Bank of Japan, Japan Securities Dealers Association, Tokyo Stock Exchange,

Osaka Exchange

(trillion yen)

(trillion yen)

(trillion yen)

Source: Ministry of Finance

Page 12: Our fundamental goal of debt management policy is to ... · Ohyama, Section Chief, visited Washington, DC, and New York to meet with investors, international organizations, and debt

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

700

750

800

850

FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013 FY2014 FY2015 FY2016

18.6% 17.0% 17.8% 18.3% 18.2% 17.9% 17.3% 16.4% 15.1% 14.3%

11.5% 11.4%13.0% 12.5% 11.9% 12.4% 12.0% 11.1% 10.6% 10.5%

8.2% 8.9%8.5%

7.9% 8.6% 8.1% 7.8% 7.8% 7.9% 7.7%9.0% 9.2%

8.4%9.0% 8.6% 8.1% 8.1% 8.2% 7.8% 8.2%

8.6% 8.4%

8.8%8.4% 7.8%

7.8% 7.8% 7.4% 7.8% 6.8%

4.6% 5.3%

5.2%4.7%

4.9%4.4% 4.2% 5.0% 4.2% 4.4%

5.6% 5.6%

4.9%5.2% 4.6%

4.5%5.0% 4.3% 4.4% 4.8%

6.0% 5.5%

5.5%4.8%

4.8%5.3%

4.5% 4.5% 5.0% 4.8%

5.9% 6.2%

5.2%5.1%

5.6%4.7%

4.8% 5.2% 4.9% 5.1%

5.5% 5.0%

4.7%5.2%

4.4%4.3%

4.6% 4.2% 4.5% 4.1%

14.5% 14.8%

14.4%

14.4%14.9%

15.6%16.5%

17.7%18.4% 19.2%

2.0% 2.7%

3.6%

4.6%

5.8%

6.7%

7.5%8.3%

9.4%10.1% 20 yrs-

10-20 yrs

9-10 yrs

8-9 yrs

7-8 yrs

6-7 yrs

5-6 yrs

4-5 yrs

3-4 yrs

2-3 yrs

1-2 yrs

-1 yr

(trillion yen)

(at the end of FY)

541.5 545.9

594.0

636.3669.9

705.0

743.9

774.1805.4

*years to maturity

Average

YTM* 6Y1M 6Y3M 6Y5M 6Y8M 7Y0M 7Y3M 7Y7M 8Y0M 8Y5M 8Y7M

Average YTM*

(excluding saving

bonds)6Y1M 6Y4M 6Y6M 6Y10M 7Y1M 7Y5M 7Y8M 8Y0M 8Y5M 8Y8M

830.6

General Government

(ex Public Pensions)

3.5

0.4%

Fiscal Loan

Fund

0.0

0.0%

BOJ

413.4

42.2%

Banks,etc.

199.1

20.3%

Life and Non-life

Insurance,etc.

202.3

20.7%

Public

Pensions

46.3

4.7%

Pension

Funds

30.3

3.1% Foreigners

59.7

6.1%

Households

12.2

1.2%

Others

11.7

1.2% General Government

(ex Public Pensions)

0.0

0.0%Fiscal Loan

Fund

0.0

0.0%BOJ

31.7

29.2%

Banks,etc.

14.7

13.6%

Life and Non-life

Insurance,etc.

2.2

2.0%

Public

Pensions

0.0

0.0%

Pension

Funds

0.0

0.0%

Foreigners

60.0

55.3%

Households

0.0

0.0%

Others

0.0

0.0%

General Government

(ex Public Pensions)

3.5

0.3%Fiscal Loan

Fund

0.0

0.0%BOJ

445.1

40.9%

Banks,etc.

213.8

19.7%

Life and Non-life

Insurance,etc.

204.5

18.8%

Public

Pensions

46.3

4.3%

Pension

Funds

30.3

2.8%Foreigners

119.7

11.0%

Households

12.2

1.1%

Others

11.7

1.1%

JGB and T-Bill Holders

Breakdown by JGB and T-Bill Holders (The end of Sep. 2017 QE)

Source: Bank of Japan “Flow of Funds Accounts (Preliminary Figures)” Note1: “JGB” includes FILP Bonds. Note2: “Banks, etc.” includes Japan Post Bank, “Securities investment trust” and “Securities companies.” Note3: “Life and Nonlife insurance” includes “Japan Post Insurance.”

(trillion yen)

Breakdown of Outstanding Amount of General Bonds by Remaining Years to Maturity

T-Bill Holders

Total 108.5 trillion yen

JGB Holders

Total 978.6 trillion yen

Total 1,087.1 trillion yen

-12-

Page 13: Our fundamental goal of debt management policy is to ... · Ohyama, Section Chief, visited Washington, DC, and New York to meet with investors, international organizations, and debt

Types The amount of redemption at maturity Scheduled redemption date

20-Year Bonds 1,547.2 March 20

15-Year Floating-Rate Bonds 635.7 March 20

10-Year Bonds 7,589.1 March 20

10-Year Inflation-Indexed Bonds 139.3 March 10

5-Year Bonds 8,731.1 March 20

2-Year Bonds 2,796.1 March 15

Treasury Bill 2,100.0 March 20

Total 23,538.5

Source: Ministry of Finance

Time-to-Maturity Structure of Outstanding JGB(Dec. 2017)

General Bonds Issuance Amount and Outstanding

Note 1: Issuance Amount: revenue basis, FY2007-2016: Actual, FY2017: Supplementary budget, FY2018: Initial budget Note 2: Outstanding: nominal basis, FY2007-2016: Actual, FY2017: Supplementary budget, FY2018: Initial budget Source: Ministry of Finance

Market-held Balance of the Inflation-Indexed Bonds (as of the end of January, 2018)

(trillion yen)

Scheduled redemption of JGB at maturity in March, 2018

Note.1: The figures are based on the outstanding JGBs at the end of January, 2018. Note.2: The figures are the scheduled redemption at maturity and may be different from the actual redemption due to Buy-back of JGBs. Note.3: About Inflation-Indexed Bonds, the amount of redemption at maturity is adopted the inflation-adjusted principal as of January 31, 2018. Note.4: The figures do not include "JGB for Retail Investors". Note.5: If the redemption date coincides with bank holiday, the payment of redemption is carried out on the following business day. Note.6: Figures may not sum up to total because of rounding.

(billion yen)

-13-

Source: Ministry of Finance, Bank of Japan

0100200300400500600700800900

1,0001,1001,2001,3001,4001,5001,6001,7001,8001,9002,0002,1002,200

15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22

(billion yen)

(issue number)

Outstanding amount (excl.BOJ holding)BOJ holding

Old type(without floor)

Market BOJ TotalOld 334 236 570New 6,280 1,246 7,526

31.97

108.35

83.27

69.27

60.61

52.55

42.0039.48

42.32 40.11

27.35

12.1914.35 16.19

15.76

18.56 18.1019.89

19.17 18.0011.43

4.75 5.32 6.41 6.96 6.24 8.19 9.46 10.83 9.23 6.341.31 1.33 1.93 1.87 1.96 2.07 2.27 2.39 1.56

0102030405060708090

100110120130

17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56

(trillion yen)

(FY)

Treasury Bills2-yr bondsJGBs for retail investors (3-yr-Fixed-rate)JGBs for retail investors (5-yr-Fixed-rate)5-yr bondsInflation-Indexed bondsJGBs for retail investors (Floating-rate)10-yr bonds15-yr-floating-rate bonds20-yr bonds30-yr bonds40-yr bonds

Average remaining years to maturity: 8 years and 9 months

541.5 545.9594.0

636.3669.9

705.0743.9 774.1

805.4 830.6863.9 882.8

124.6 127.1 142.4 143.1

163.1 163.3 153.6 158.0 150.5

148.3 144.1 137.9

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

0

30

60

90

120

150

180

07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

Outstanding (right-hand scale) Issuance Amount (left-hand scale)

Page 14: Our fundamental goal of debt management policy is to ... · Ohyama, Section Chief, visited Washington, DC, and New York to meet with investors, international organizations, and debt

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

Jan-

09

May

-09

Sep-

09

Jan-

10

May

-10

Sep-

10

Jan-

11

May

-11

Sep-

11

Jan-

12

May

-12

Sep-

12

Jan-

13

May

-13

Sep-

13

Jan-

14

May

-14

Sep-

14

Jan-

15

May

-15

Sep-

15

Jan-

16

May

-16

Sep-

16

Jan-

17

May

-17

Sep-

17

(2010 average=100・Seasonally Adjusted Index)

Production Shipments

Inventory Inventory Ratio

1.4%

0.1%

-1

0

1

2

3

4

Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 Jan-18

(%)

CPI

CPI excluding food (excludingalcohilic beverages) and energy

Change from the previous year

Apr.4, 2013BOJ released QQE

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

1,100

Jan-

09Ap

r-09

Jul-0

9O

ct-0

9Ja

n-10

Apr-

10Ju

l-10

Oct

-10

Jan-

11Ap

r-11

Jul-1

1O

ct-1

1Ja

n-12

Apr-

12Ju

l-12

Oct

-12

Jan-

13Ap

r-13

Jul-1

3O

ct-1

3Ja

n-14

Apr-

14Ju

l-14

Oct

-14

Jan-

15Ap

r-15

Jul-1

5O

ct-1

5Ja

n-16

Apr-

16Ju

l-16

Oct

-16

Jan-

17Ap

r-17

Jul-1

7O

ct-1

7

(billion yen)

Monthly Quarter (Mean)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600(trillion yen)

Banknotes in Circulation

Coins in Circulation

Current Account Balances

2.3

3.2

4.3 3.8

5.4

4.4

5.5

4.1

4.3

1.8

3.3

0.9

2.1

1.1 1.6

-0.0

1.6 2.1

1.7

-1.0 -0.5

0.9

2.0 1.6

4.3

3.9

4.9

3.1

5.9

4.6

5.8

4.1

6.0

4.6

7.0

4.3

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

2009

Q120

09Q2

2009

Q320

09Q4

2010

Q120

10Q2

2010

Q320

10Q4

2011

Q120

11Q2

2011

Q320

11Q4

2012

Q120

12Q2

2012

Q320

12Q4

2013

Q120

13Q2

2013

Q320

13Q4

2014

Q120

14Q2

2014

Q320

14Q4

2015

Q120

15Q2

2015

Q320

15Q4

2016

Q120

16Q2

2016

Q320

16Q4

2017

Q120

17Q2

2017

Q320

17Q4

Primary Income Trade BalanceServices Secondary IncomeCurrent Account

4.6

-2.5-1.5

0.9

4.63.6

3.2

-0.0

3.4

-6.8

-0.1

2.9

5.1

0.2 0.4

-0.6

2.1 1.4

0.8

1.81.2

2.52.2

0.5

-12.0

-10.0

-8.0

-6.0

-4.0

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

(%)

Private Demand Public Demand

Foreign Demand Real GDP

Annualized rate of Change from the previous quarter (Seasonally adjusted)

(CY)

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

4.5%

5.0%

5.5%

6.0%

Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17

(ratio)Dec, 20171.59times

Dec, 20172.8%

Aug, 20090.42times

Jul, 20095.5%

Job opening-to-application ratio(right scale)

Unemployment rate(left scale)

-70%

-60%

-50%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

Jan-

09

May

-09

Sep-

09

Jan-

10

May

-10

Sep-

10

Jan-

11

May

-11

Sep-

11

Jan-

12

May

-12

Sep-

12

Jan-

13

May

-13

Sep-

13

Jan-

14

May

-14

Sep-

14

Jan-

15

May

-15

Sep-

15

Jan-

16

May

-16

Sep-

16

Jan-

17

May

-17

Sep-

17

(Diffusion index)

Large enterprises/Manufacturing

Large enterprises/Non-Manufacturing

Small enterprises/Manufacturing

Small enterprises/Non-Manufacturing

Real GDP Growth Rate

Employment Conditions

Prices

Changes in Current Account

Monetary Base Indices of Industrial Production

Total Value of Machinery Orders (Private Sector exc. Volatile orders)

TANKAN (Business Conditions)

Source: Cabinet Office "Quarterly Estimates of GDP"

Source: Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications “CPI”

Source: Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare “Employment Referrals for General Workers “, Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications “Labour Force Survey”

Source: Ministry of Finance “Balance of Payments"

Source: Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry "Indices of Industrial Production”

Source: Cabinet Office, Government of Japan "Orders Received for Machinery"

(trillion yen)

ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL TRENDS

Source: Bank of Japan "Monetary Base"

Source: Bank of Japan "Tankan"

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Page 15: Our fundamental goal of debt management policy is to ... · Ohyama, Section Chief, visited Washington, DC, and New York to meet with investors, international organizations, and debt

English Publications on JGBs Frequency URL Debt Management

Message from the Financial Bureau As needed http://www.mof.go.jp/english/jgbs/debt_management/message.htm

About JGBs As needed http://www.mof.go.jp/english/jgbs/debt_management/guide.htm

About the Debt Management Policy As needed http://www.mof.go.jp/english/jgbs/debt_management/about.htm

JGB Issuance Plan As needed http://www.mof.go.jp/english/jgbs/debt_management/plan/index.htm

Auction Calendar

Auction Calendar Monthly http://www.mof.go.jp/english/jgbs/auction/calendar/index.htm

Historical Data of Auction Results Each Auction http://www.mof.go.jp/english/jgbs/auction/past_auction_results/index.html

Topics

Product Characteristics of the JGB As needed http://www.mof.go.jp/english/jgbs/topics/bond/index.html

Treasury Discount Bills (T-Bills) Annual http://www.mof.go.jp/english/jgbs/topics/t_bill/index.htm

Japanese Government Guaranteed Bonds Annual http://www.mof.go.jp/english/jgbs/topics/gov_guaranteed_bonds/index.htm

Interest Rate Swap Semiannual http://www.mof.go.jp/english/jgbs/topics/swap/index.htm

Taxation of Government Bonds As needed http://www.mof.go.jp/english/jgbs/topics/taxation2016/index.html

For Individual Investors As needed http://www.mof.go.jp/english/jgbs/topics/individual/index.htm

Data

Central Government Debt Quarterly http://www.mof.go.jp/english/jgbs/reference/gbb/index.htm

Interest Rate Daily http://www.mof.go.jp/english/jgbs/reference/interest_rate/index.htm

STRIPS Monthly http://www.mof.go.jp/english/jgbs/reference/jgbstat/index.htm

Dialogue with the market

Advisory Councils on Government Debt Management Each Meeting http://www.mof.go.jp/english/about_mof/councils/gov_debt_management/index.html

Meeting of JGB Market Special Participants Each Meeting http://www.mof.go.jp/english/about_mof/councils/jgbsp/index.html

Meeting of JGB Investors Each Meeting http://www.mof.go.jp/english/about_mof/councils/jgb_investor/index.html

Publications

Debt Management Report Annual http://www.mof.go.jp/english/jgbs/publication/debt_management_report/index.htm

JGB Newsletter Monthly http://www.mof.go.jp/english/jgbs/publication/newsletter/index.htm

Debt Management Policy Division, Financial Bureau, Ministry of Finance 3-1-1 Kasumigaseki, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 100-8940 Japan

Phone: 81-3-3581-4111 Web: www.mof.go.jp

To subscribe to our Newsletter mailing list, please email: [email protected]

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INFORMATION