overview & evolution of the global retail...

Copyright © Falke Information

Overview & Evolution of the Global Retail Industry

Global industry report (sample)

Sao Paulo, April 2016

Copyright © Falke Information 2

Global retail sales have been growing at steady pace, driven especially by e-commerce and retail share on GDP resumed growth after 2013

Source: eMarketer, WFDSA, World Bank, FALKE Information analysis

Evolution of global retail sales and share on the global Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

Estimated share on global GDPRetail sales evolution1) [US$ trillions]

18.1 17.9 18.6 18.5 18.8 19.1 19.9 20.9 21.8 22.7 23.4 24.4

0.5 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.9 1.11.3

1.72.1

2.53.0

3.6

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16E 17E 18E 19E

CAGR: 3.8%

30.0%

29.8%

29.5%

26.6%

26.7%

26.7%

27.4%

30.7%31.2% 31.3%

31.0%

30.9%

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16E 17E 18E 19E

18.6 18.5 19.3 19.3 19.7 20.221.2

22.623.8

25.226.4

28.0

Traditional Online (e-commerce)


Retail is a highly concentrated market in the world, with the top 15 groups concentrating nearly 10% of total retail sales worldwide

1) considered the net margin of the group (retail and other segments)Source: Global Powers of Retailing (Deloitte), FALKE Information analysis

Main retail groups in the world according to revenue in 2015 [USD bn]

54.2

62.2

72.0

73.4

73.8

79.3

84.5

85.5

87.1

88.5

97.9

103.4

104.4

109.8

116.2

485.7

Casino Guichard-Perrachon S.A.

Groupe Auchan SA

CVS Health Corporation

Aeon Co. Ltd.

Target Corporation

Amazon.com Inc.

Metro AG

Carrefour S.A.

Aldi Einkauf GmbH & Co.

The Home Depot Inc.

Tesco PLC

Walgreen Co.

Schwarz Unternehmenstreuhand KG

The Kroger Co.

Costco Wholesale Corporation

Wal-Mart Stores Inc.

Netmargin1)

3.5%

2.1%

1.9%

N.A.

4.1%

-8.7%

7.9%

N.A.

1.4%

1.0%

0.6%

4.6%

-0.6%

3.4%

1.3%

1.6%

CAGR2009-2015

3.2%

8.4%

6.2%

6.7%

8.5%

1.2%

5.0%

5.8%

-4.6%

-0.9%

23.6%

2.5%

9.5%

4.4%

3.2%

7.6%

Copyright © Falke Information 41) considers the top 250 retail groups in the worldSource: Global Powers of Retailing (Deloitte), FALKE Information analysis

The geographical concentration is even higher, with North America and Europe holding around 83% of revenues and over 71% of stores

Geographic breakdown of the global retail sector in 20151)

Breakdown of revenues Breakdown of physical stores

46%

38%

14%

2% 1%

35%

38%

21%

4% 3%

NorthAmerica

Europe

Asia/Pacific

Latin America Africa/Middle East

NorthAmerica

Europe

Asia/Pacific

Latin America Africa/Middle East


Millennials - aged 21 to 34 - are predominant age group among digital buyers and there are four main online retail customer profiles

Overview of the online retail customer profile in the world

Source: Nielsen, FALKE Information analysis

Main customer profile groupsEngagement per age group

2%

10%

27%

54%

8%

2%

10%

28%

58%

7%

Silent Generation(65 and above)

Baby Boomers(age 50-64)

Generation X(age 35-49)

Millennials(age 21-34)

Generation Z(under 20)

Buy online Browse online

Group

Shopaholics

Researchers

Savers

Skeptics

Main characteristics

Online shopping is convenient (76%) and fun (64%). Like getting email notifications from retailers (46%), and manage grocery lists using a mobile app or via an online tool (35%)

Knowledge is king in terms of online reviews prior to purchasing a product (71%). Spend considerableamount of time researching products before buying (61%) and social media is a helpful tool.

Believe they get the best prices online (60%), and find deals that are better than those offered in the store (54%). Subscribe to product and store emails to save (54%), and use price-saving apps or websites.

Privacy and security are worries and they are wary of giving their card information online (48%). Shipping costs (38%) and confusing websites (33%) are other barriers for these skeptical shoppers


The UK is the leader in mobile spend as percentage of e-commerce, followed by Germany and desktops are still majority among devices

Mobile commerce relevance in the global ecommerce market

Devices used for online shoppingMobile spend [% of ecommerce]

Source: Nielsen, FALKE Information analysis

5.1%

7.8%

8.1%

8.7%

9.6%

11.1%

15.4%

14.4%

16.2%

16.5%

5.0%

6.1%

7.5%

7.5%

8.7%

8.1%

11.7%

12.4%

11.5%

12.1%

Italy

Poland

Spain

Canada

Netherlands

France

Sweden

USA

Germany

UK

Smartphone Tablet

80%

60%

81% 82%78%

84%

44%

55%52%

48%

33%27%

31%

38%35%

29%24% 26%

World Africa &M.East

AsiaPacific

LatinAmerica

Europe NorthAmerica

Desktop Mobile Tablet


Contrary to the world, retail direct sales in Europe have been growing faster than sellers and EU members have higher revenue per seller

Source: Seldia, FALKE Information analysis

Evolution of retail direct sale in the world

European direct retail sales [EUR billions] Direct Sellers [millions]

3.8 4.1 4.5 4.7 4.8 5.2 5.7 5.7

7.0 7.1 6.5 6.7 6.57.5

8.3 8.2

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

9.6 10.7 11.613.4

14.9

18.8 20.2 20.03.4

3.53.8

4.4

5.2

5.04.4 4.6

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

EU members Others

CAGR: 9.5%

CAGR: 3.7%

10.811.2 11.0 11.4 11.4

12.7

14.0 13.9

13.014.2

15.4

17.8

20.1

23.8 24.5 24.6


Technology has been changing consumers' habits and taking over to a point in which many consumers started to pursue more 'analogue' lives

Source: Euromonitor, press research

Main trends for the global retail market: over-connected consumers

Access to connectivity devices [% of population] Comments

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

Japan Russia USA France Germany UK Brazil India China

Smartphone Tablet Feature phone Game console

• Now that near to half of the world’s population has internet access—internet users are forecast to hit three billion in 2016 —more consumers are dwelling on the flipside of digital life.

• Smartphones accompany consumers literally everywhere. A survey from Motorola found that sleeping with your phone and taking it with you when you shower is commonplace.

• In what’s being called a “Vampire Kids” phenomenon, children and teenagers are using devices into the night, which is eating into their sleep, health and academic achievement.

• If this contactless, paperless world in which we live is so amazing, how come an increasing number of us are seeking refuge in a decidedly more ‘analogue’ existence?

Copyright © Falke Information

Mobile appMobile siteEmail

9

Cross-channel personalisation has become a general trend in global retail and has been increasing at fast pace across digital platforms

Source: Monetate, FALKE Information analysis

Main trends for the global retail market: personalisation

WebsiteSocial media

+83% +150% +176%

+200% +217%

41%

26% 25%

20% 18%

75%

65%69%

60% 57%

2013

2016/2017


Table of Contents – Full Report

Chapter 1 - Overview of the global retail sector

Brief overview of retail and commerce in the world Page 4Evolution of global retail sales and share on global GDP (2008-2015) Page 5Evolution of retail direct sales in the world (2008-2015) Page 6Revenue per seller and consumption growth per geographic regions (2008-2015) Page 7Global retail sales geographic and product breakdown comparison (2010 vs. 2015) Page 8Country ranking of top 20 in retail revenue and average revenue per seller (2014) Page 9Consumer price evolution across regions and compound inflation (2000-2014) Evolution of the global trade balance and main foreign trade players (2010-2015) Page 11

Chapter 2 - Overview of main players in the global retail sector

Main retail groups in the world according to revenue, margin & growth in 2015 Page 13Geographic breakdown of global retail revenues and physical stores in 2015 Page 14Revenue growth for the top 16 retail groups in the global market (2009 vs. 2015) Page 15Bubble chart of growth vs. net margin for the top 15 retailers in 2015 Page 16Bubble chart of Ebitda vs. ROE for the top 15 retailers in 2015 Page 17Breakdown of the top 250 global retailers according to product category Page 18Retail industry breakdown into formats according to world regions in 2015 Page 19Global retail breakdown into regions and product segments in 2015 Page 20Sector breakdown of the top 50 retail companies in the world in 2015 Page 21

Chapter 3 - Evolution of the online retail (e-commerce) segmentEvolution of the global e-commerce (online retail) sector Page 23Geographic breakdown and penetration of ecommerce in the world (2014-2019) Page 24


Table of Contents – Full Report

Chapter 3 - Evolution of the online retail (e-commerce) segment

Top 10 e-commerce countries in online retail sales in 2015 Page 25Global online purchase intentions growth rates per product category (2011 vs. 2014 vs. 2016) Page 26Overview of the online retail customer profile in the world in 2015/2016 Page 27Online retail performance according to device and platform in 2015 Page 28Mobile commerce relevance in the global ecommerce market Page 30

Chapter 4 – Overview of the European retail market

Evolution of retail direct sale in the world in sales and direct sellers (2008-2015) Page 32Overview of European retail direct sales market evolution (2008-2015) Page 33European retail sales breakdown per product and country (2010 vs. 2015) Page 34European retail direct sellers profile in gender, selling methods and engagement Page 35Overview of European retail donations to charities in 2014 Page 36

Chapter 5 – Main consumer trends for the global retail market

Main trends for the global retail market: buying time Page 38Main trends for the global retail market: challenging ageing Page 39Main trends for the global retail market: changemakers Page 40Main trends for the global retail market: greener foods Page 41Main trends for the global retail market: over-connected consumers Page 42Main trends for the global retail market: shopping for control Page 43Main trends for the global retail market: spending singles Page 44Main trends for the global retail market: personalisation Page 45


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The analysis and recommendations of Falke Information are supported by assumptions considered right and consistent based

on the available information. Therefore, Falke Information will not be held

responsible for the correctness of the resulting recommendationsand analysis in this document.

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