overview of nutrien and global crop input markets and crop... · global urea production and demand...

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Overview of Nutrien and Global Crop Input Markets March 8, 2019

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Page 1: Overview of Nutrien and Global Crop Input Markets and Crop... · Global Urea Production and Demand Million Tonnes Urea –2018 Production Demand Note: World urea demand was approximately

Overview of Nutrien and Global

Crop Input MarketsMarch 8, 2019

Page 2: Overview of Nutrien and Global Crop Input Markets and Crop... · Global Urea Production and Demand Million Tonnes Urea –2018 Production Demand Note: World urea demand was approximately

Nutrien Has a Unique Global Footprint

LEGEND:

RETAIL

POTASH

NITROGEN

PHOSPHATE

ESN®

GRANULATION

LOVELAND PRODUCTS AND AFFILIATED FACILITIES

AGRICHEM

INVESTMENTS AND JV’S

OFFICES

South AmericaNorth American Integrated Footprint

Australia

~27MmtCombined sales tonnes of potash,

nitrogen, phosphate 1

1,700+North American

distribution touch points

>1,700Retail locations

worldwide

29Production facilities in

North America and Trinidad

March 8, 2019NOTE: European distribution and our ownership stakes in Sinofert and the MOPCO nitrogen facility are not included on these maps.

1 Based on 2018 sales

2

>20,000Employees in 14

countries

Page 3: Overview of Nutrien and Global Crop Input Markets and Crop... · Global Urea Production and Demand Million Tonnes Urea –2018 Production Demand Note: World urea demand was approximately

Nutrien Crop Nutrient and Retail Profile 3

13.02

10.26

3.61

Potash Nitrogen Phosphate &Sulfate

Total Combined Sales Volumes1 (2018)Million Tonnes

Retail LocationsNumber of stores

1 Refers to manufactured product only.

Source: Nutrien

~1,100

~300~250

~70

US Canada Australia SouthAmerica

March 8, 2019

Page 4: Overview of Nutrien and Global Crop Input Markets and Crop... · Global Urea Production and Demand Million Tonnes Urea –2018 Production Demand Note: World urea demand was approximately

~38%

~27%

~7%

~28%

Nutrien Sales and Earnings Profile 4

Retail

Phosphate

and Sulfate

Nitrogen

Potash

2018 Adjusted

EBITDA1 Split

1 This is a Non-IFRS measure. See the Forward Looking Statement and “Select Non-IFRS Financial Measures and Reconciliations and Supplemental Information” in Nutrien’s Q4 2018 news release.

Source: Nutrien

56%28%

7%

9%

Other

Australia

Canada US

2018 Sales by

Country of Origin

March 8, 2019

Page 5: Overview of Nutrien and Global Crop Input Markets and Crop... · Global Urea Production and Demand Million Tonnes Urea –2018 Production Demand Note: World urea demand was approximately

Nutrien in Saskatchewan

20 Million Tonnes of Potash Capacity

~ 120 Retail Sites

2 Offices

~4,000 Employees

Supporting ~15,000 Farmers

Canola Seed Breeding ProgramMarch 8, 2019

Page 6: Overview of Nutrien and Global Crop Input Markets and Crop... · Global Urea Production and Demand Million Tonnes Urea –2018 Production Demand Note: World urea demand was approximately

Market Fundamentals

INVESTOR PRESENTATION

Page 7: Overview of Nutrien and Global Crop Input Markets and Crop... · Global Urea Production and Demand Million Tonnes Urea –2018 Production Demand Note: World urea demand was approximately

7

Corn Stocks/Use RatioPercent

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

US

World

(excl. China)

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

US

World

(excl. US)

Global Corn and Soybean Supply/Demand

Source: USDA, Nutrien

Soybean Stocks/Use RatioPercent

March 8, 2019

Page 8: Overview of Nutrien and Global Crop Input Markets and Crop... · Global Urea Production and Demand Million Tonnes Urea –2018 Production Demand Note: World urea demand was approximately

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

Cash Grower Margins 8

US Corn US Soybeans US Wheat US Cotton CAN Canola BRZ Soybeans

Cash Grower Margins1

Local Currency Margin/Acre

1 2016-2017 margins are based on average realized cash crop prices and estimated average fertilizer costs; 2018F margins are based on cash spot prices and estimated average retail fertilizer

prices; 2019F margins are based on new crop 2019 futures prices less estimated bases and estimated spot retail fertilizer prices; Brazilian grower margins are based on IMEA cost of production

and price estimates for Mato Grosso.

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

Source: USDA, Green Markets, CME Group, IMEA, Nutrien

March 8, 2019

Page 9: Overview of Nutrien and Global Crop Input Markets and Crop... · Global Urea Production and Demand Million Tonnes Urea –2018 Production Demand Note: World urea demand was approximately

9

Crop Input Expenditure vs. Cereal Price IndexIndex, 2002-2004=1

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350Crop Input Expenditure Index Cereal Price Index

Crop Input Expenditures Correlated to Crop Prices

Source: Phillips McDougall, IFA, CRU, FAO, Nutrien March 8, 2019

Page 10: Overview of Nutrien and Global Crop Input Markets and Crop... · Global Urea Production and Demand Million Tonnes Urea –2018 Production Demand Note: World urea demand was approximately

Global Trends in Seed 10

$14$17

$19 $20 $21 $20 $20$22

$14

$15

$16$17

$18$17 $17

$17

$0

$5

$10

$15

$20

$25

$30

$35

$40

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017P

Bill

ion

USD

Global Seed Market Values - 2017Ex-Manufacturer

GM Conventional

$14

$6

$1$2 $2

$7

$6

$1

$0

$2

$4

$6

$8

$10

$12

$14

$16

North America Central & SouthAmerica

Europe Asia Pacific MEA

Bill

ion

USD

Regional Seed Market Values - 2017Ex-Manufacturer

GM Conventional

$0.04

$0.3

Source: AgbioInvestor, Nutrien

Compound Annual Growth Rate

Total Seed 5.0%

GM Seed 6.3%

Conventional Seed 3.4%

YoY Growth Rate GM Seed Conventional Seed

North America 8.1% (8.9%)

C & S America 7.9% (1.3%)

Europe (5.5%) 20.7%

Asia Pacific 13.3% (4.2%)

MEA 14.2% (20.1%)

World 8.4% 2.1%

March 8, 2019

Page 11: Overview of Nutrien and Global Crop Input Markets and Crop... · Global Urea Production and Demand Million Tonnes Urea –2018 Production Demand Note: World urea demand was approximately

11

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Urea DAP Potash

Global Crop Nutrient Prices

Source: CRU

US$ per short ton (FOB NOLA)

March 8, 2019

Page 12: Overview of Nutrien and Global Crop Input Markets and Crop... · Global Urea Production and Demand Million Tonnes Urea –2018 Production Demand Note: World urea demand was approximately

Global Potash Production and Demand

Million Tonnes KCl – 2018

Production

Demand

Note: World potash demand was approximately 66.5 million tonnes in 2018.

21%

79%

Potash

Trade

Domestic

Sales

22.5

Canada

0.9

US

0.3

9.3

Latin America

1.5

13.3

4.46.5

Europe

6.2

0.8

Middle East

1.5

Africa

23.8

3.7

FSU

4.7

India

7.4

China

14.7

10.4

0.6

Other Asia

0.7

Oceania

12

Source: CRU, Fertecon, Industry Publications, Nutrien March 8, 2019

Page 13: Overview of Nutrien and Global Crop Input Markets and Crop... · Global Urea Production and Demand Million Tonnes Urea –2018 Production Demand Note: World urea demand was approximately

Potash Market Fundamentals

1

3

Highest growth rate of the primary

crop nutrients

Canada,35%

Russia, 17%Belarus, 16%

Other, 32%

Long development times and high

capital costs

$0

$1,000

$2,000

$3,000

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

$2,700

$2,300

7 to 10 years

construction &

ramp up

Global Potash Consumption

Million Tonnes KClGlobal Potash Capacity1

% Share (2018)Greenfield Capital Intensity

Cost per Tonne2 (US$)

1 Based on nameplate capacity, which may exceed operational capability.

2 Estimates for a conventional 2-million-tonne mine in Saskatchewan.

Range

13

Concentration of high-quality deposits

Source: AMEC, CRU, Fertecon, IFA, Nutrien

3.8% 5 Year CAGR

2.8% 16 Year CAGR

March 8, 2019

Page 14: Overview of Nutrien and Global Crop Input Markets and Crop... · Global Urea Production and Demand Million Tonnes Urea –2018 Production Demand Note: World urea demand was approximately

Global Urea Production and Demand

Million Tonnes Urea – 2018

Production

Demand

Note: World urea demand was approximately 162 million tonnes in 2018.

3.7

Canada

3.3

US

6.6

10.9

Latin America

4.5

12.5

9.3

13.2

Europe 22.9

6.1

Middle East6.0

Africa

10.6

3.7

FSU

30.7

India

49.8

China

47.6

25.1

19.5

Other Asia

3.0

Oceania

14

Source: CRU, Fertecon, Industry Publications, Nutrien

10.3

24.4

0.4

March 8, 2019

71%

29%

Urea

Trade

Domestic

Sales

Page 15: Overview of Nutrien and Global Crop Input Markets and Crop... · Global Urea Production and Demand Million Tonnes Urea –2018 Production Demand Note: World urea demand was approximately

15

US and Chinese Nitrogen Trade

Source: Blue, Johnson & Associates, US Department of Commerce, TFI, CRU, Nutrien

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

1980s 1990s 2000s 2015 2016 2017 2018

Urea NH3 UAN

US Offshore Nitrogen ImportsMillion Tonnes

15

Chinese Urea ExportsMillion Tonnes

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

March 8, 2019

Page 16: Overview of Nutrien and Global Crop Input Markets and Crop... · Global Urea Production and Demand Million Tonnes Urea –2018 Production Demand Note: World urea demand was approximately

Global Phosphate Production and Demand

Million Tonnes DAP/MAP – 2018

Production

Demand

Note: World DAP/MAP demand was approximately 61 million tonnes in 2018.

0.5

Canada

1.4

US

7.3 7.0

Latin America

2.3

8.9

1.23.6

Europe

5.7

1.5

Middle East

1.9

Africa

5.3

1.7

FSU

10.0

India

25.0

China

15.7

7.3

1.5

Other Asia

1.8

Oceania

16

Source: CRU, Fertecon, Industry Publications, Nutrien

7.3

3.7

1.0

March 8, 2019

50%50%

DAP/MAP

Trade

Domestic

Sales

Page 17: Overview of Nutrien and Global Crop Input Markets and Crop... · Global Urea Production and Demand Million Tonnes Urea –2018 Production Demand Note: World urea demand was approximately

Thank you!

INVESTOR PRESENTATION

For further information please visit Nutrien’s website at: www.nutrien.com

Follow Nutrien on:

twitter.com/nutrienltd

facebook.com/nutrienltd

linkedin.com/company/nutrien

March 5, 2019