overview of nutrien and global crop input markets and crop... · global urea production and demand...
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Overview of Nutrien and Global
Crop Input MarketsMarch 8, 2019
Nutrien Has a Unique Global Footprint
LEGEND:
RETAIL
POTASH
NITROGEN
PHOSPHATE
ESN®
GRANULATION
LOVELAND PRODUCTS AND AFFILIATED FACILITIES
AGRICHEM
INVESTMENTS AND JV’S
OFFICES
South AmericaNorth American Integrated Footprint
Australia
~27MmtCombined sales tonnes of potash,
nitrogen, phosphate 1
1,700+North American
distribution touch points
>1,700Retail locations
worldwide
29Production facilities in
North America and Trinidad
March 8, 2019NOTE: European distribution and our ownership stakes in Sinofert and the MOPCO nitrogen facility are not included on these maps.
1 Based on 2018 sales
2
>20,000Employees in 14
countries
Nutrien Crop Nutrient and Retail Profile 3
13.02
10.26
3.61
Potash Nitrogen Phosphate &Sulfate
Total Combined Sales Volumes1 (2018)Million Tonnes
Retail LocationsNumber of stores
1 Refers to manufactured product only.
Source: Nutrien
~1,100
~300~250
~70
US Canada Australia SouthAmerica
March 8, 2019
~38%
~27%
~7%
~28%
Nutrien Sales and Earnings Profile 4
Retail
Phosphate
and Sulfate
Nitrogen
Potash
2018 Adjusted
EBITDA1 Split
1 This is a Non-IFRS measure. See the Forward Looking Statement and “Select Non-IFRS Financial Measures and Reconciliations and Supplemental Information” in Nutrien’s Q4 2018 news release.
Source: Nutrien
56%28%
7%
9%
Other
Australia
Canada US
2018 Sales by
Country of Origin
March 8, 2019
Nutrien in Saskatchewan
20 Million Tonnes of Potash Capacity
~ 120 Retail Sites
2 Offices
~4,000 Employees
Supporting ~15,000 Farmers
Canola Seed Breeding ProgramMarch 8, 2019
Market Fundamentals
INVESTOR PRESENTATION
7
Corn Stocks/Use RatioPercent
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
US
World
(excl. China)
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
US
World
(excl. US)
Global Corn and Soybean Supply/Demand
Source: USDA, Nutrien
Soybean Stocks/Use RatioPercent
March 8, 2019
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
Cash Grower Margins 8
US Corn US Soybeans US Wheat US Cotton CAN Canola BRZ Soybeans
Cash Grower Margins1
Local Currency Margin/Acre
1 2016-2017 margins are based on average realized cash crop prices and estimated average fertilizer costs; 2018F margins are based on cash spot prices and estimated average retail fertilizer
prices; 2019F margins are based on new crop 2019 futures prices less estimated bases and estimated spot retail fertilizer prices; Brazilian grower margins are based on IMEA cost of production
and price estimates for Mato Grosso.
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Source: USDA, Green Markets, CME Group, IMEA, Nutrien
March 8, 2019
9
Crop Input Expenditure vs. Cereal Price IndexIndex, 2002-2004=1
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350Crop Input Expenditure Index Cereal Price Index
Crop Input Expenditures Correlated to Crop Prices
Source: Phillips McDougall, IFA, CRU, FAO, Nutrien March 8, 2019
Global Trends in Seed 10
$14$17
$19 $20 $21 $20 $20$22
$14
$15
$16$17
$18$17 $17
$17
$0
$5
$10
$15
$20
$25
$30
$35
$40
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017P
Bill
ion
USD
Global Seed Market Values - 2017Ex-Manufacturer
GM Conventional
$14
$6
$1$2 $2
$7
$6
$1
$0
$2
$4
$6
$8
$10
$12
$14
$16
North America Central & SouthAmerica
Europe Asia Pacific MEA
Bill
ion
USD
Regional Seed Market Values - 2017Ex-Manufacturer
GM Conventional
$0.04
$0.3
Source: AgbioInvestor, Nutrien
Compound Annual Growth Rate
Total Seed 5.0%
GM Seed 6.3%
Conventional Seed 3.4%
YoY Growth Rate GM Seed Conventional Seed
North America 8.1% (8.9%)
C & S America 7.9% (1.3%)
Europe (5.5%) 20.7%
Asia Pacific 13.3% (4.2%)
MEA 14.2% (20.1%)
World 8.4% 2.1%
March 8, 2019
11
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Urea DAP Potash
Global Crop Nutrient Prices
Source: CRU
US$ per short ton (FOB NOLA)
March 8, 2019
Global Potash Production and Demand
Million Tonnes KCl – 2018
Production
Demand
Note: World potash demand was approximately 66.5 million tonnes in 2018.
21%
79%
Potash
Trade
Domestic
Sales
22.5
Canada
0.9
US
0.3
9.3
Latin America
1.5
13.3
4.46.5
Europe
6.2
0.8
Middle East
1.5
Africa
23.8
3.7
FSU
4.7
India
7.4
China
14.7
10.4
0.6
Other Asia
0.7
Oceania
12
Source: CRU, Fertecon, Industry Publications, Nutrien March 8, 2019
Potash Market Fundamentals
1
3
Highest growth rate of the primary
crop nutrients
Canada,35%
Russia, 17%Belarus, 16%
Other, 32%
Long development times and high
capital costs
$0
$1,000
$2,000
$3,000
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
$2,700
$2,300
7 to 10 years
construction &
ramp up
Global Potash Consumption
Million Tonnes KClGlobal Potash Capacity1
% Share (2018)Greenfield Capital Intensity
Cost per Tonne2 (US$)
1 Based on nameplate capacity, which may exceed operational capability.
2 Estimates for a conventional 2-million-tonne mine in Saskatchewan.
Range
13
Concentration of high-quality deposits
Source: AMEC, CRU, Fertecon, IFA, Nutrien
3.8% 5 Year CAGR
2.8% 16 Year CAGR
March 8, 2019
Global Urea Production and Demand
Million Tonnes Urea – 2018
Production
Demand
Note: World urea demand was approximately 162 million tonnes in 2018.
3.7
Canada
3.3
US
6.6
10.9
Latin America
4.5
12.5
9.3
13.2
Europe 22.9
6.1
Middle East6.0
Africa
10.6
3.7
FSU
30.7
India
49.8
China
47.6
25.1
19.5
Other Asia
3.0
Oceania
14
Source: CRU, Fertecon, Industry Publications, Nutrien
10.3
24.4
0.4
March 8, 2019
71%
29%
Urea
Trade
Domestic
Sales
15
US and Chinese Nitrogen Trade
Source: Blue, Johnson & Associates, US Department of Commerce, TFI, CRU, Nutrien
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
1980s 1990s 2000s 2015 2016 2017 2018
Urea NH3 UAN
US Offshore Nitrogen ImportsMillion Tonnes
15
Chinese Urea ExportsMillion Tonnes
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
March 8, 2019
Global Phosphate Production and Demand
Million Tonnes DAP/MAP – 2018
Production
Demand
Note: World DAP/MAP demand was approximately 61 million tonnes in 2018.
0.5
Canada
1.4
US
7.3 7.0
Latin America
2.3
8.9
1.23.6
Europe
5.7
1.5
Middle East
1.9
Africa
5.3
1.7
FSU
10.0
India
25.0
China
15.7
7.3
1.5
Other Asia
1.8
Oceania
16
Source: CRU, Fertecon, Industry Publications, Nutrien
7.3
3.7
1.0
March 8, 2019
50%50%
DAP/MAP
Trade
Domestic
Sales
Thank you!
INVESTOR PRESENTATION
For further information please visit Nutrien’s website at: www.nutrien.com
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March 5, 2019