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    INSTITUTE OF MANAGEMENT SCIENCES

    COURSE OUTLINES FOR PAKISTAN STUDIES

    Course Objectives

    The course is designed to better understand the state, society, people, government and

    ideology of Pakistan. The course will be instructed in purely academic and dispassionate

    manner, it will be tried not to fuse any patriotic elements that can overshadow the better

    understanding of the subject (Pakistan). An understanding of the prepartitioned !ndia"s

    political scenes is imperative for the study of Pakistan, for this purpose a preliminary

    study of the #ritish colonialism and its impact on Pakistan will be discussed. !ssues like

    the failure of democracy and the rule of army in Pakistan will be given priority. The

    objective of this course is to familiari$e the students with the issues and problems of

    Pakistan. #y the end of the course students should be able to have created a strong base

    of understanding the %tate, %ociety and Politics of Pakistan. &n the basis of this strong

    understanding they would be capable enough to know the problems and solutions of

    those problems, of Pakistan.

    Orgai!atio o" t#e Mo$u%e&

    The module is planned of a period of ' weeks, two sessions in a week each of minutes.

    The students are encouraged and e*pected to actively participate in the classes, they are

    also encouraged to develop their own points of view, supported by valid reasoning,

    regardless of what other writers or the courseinstructor have. The instructor reserves the

    right to delete, substitute and add new material during the course

    Assess'et&

    +. roup Presentation and -esearch Paper of / words. (%oft copies of all

    the assignments and presentations must be emailed to the instructor on the day

    they are due or before) ()*+

    . 0onthlies (,*-+

    /. 1omprehensive 2*am (,*-+

    +

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    CONTENTS&

    ./ Itro$uctio&

    ./ I$us 0a%%e1 Civi%i!atio

    . Pakistan3 A %hort 4istory

    )/ T#e I$ea o" Pa2ista

    +. &rigins of the !dea of Pakistan

    . %ir %yed Ahmed 5han (0uslim -eformation)

    3/ Pa2ista Move'et

    ,/ Partitio o" I$ia

    4/ Co"%ictig 0ie5s about t#e creatio o" Pa2ista/

    3/ T#e State o" Pa2ista

    +. The %truggle to #uild a %tate

    . The 6isinterest in 6emocracy

    /. Ayub and the 2nd of Parliamentary 6emocracy

    7. Pakistan"s -uling 2lite8. The +98 :ar and the %econd Partition

    9. ;ulfi. The ;ia 6ecade

    '. Ten years of 6emocracy

    . ?++ and Pakistan

    .*/ Pa2ista6s Foreig Po%ic1

    ,/ T#e Ar'16s Pa2ista

    +. #ritish 1olonial 1onnection

    . !slam and the Army

    /. The %trategy to 6efend Pakistan

    7. The Army and Politics8. The Army and Pakistan"s =uture

    7/ Is%a'ic Pa2ista

    +. Fro' Po%itica% Is%a' to Mi%itat Is%a'

    8/ Regioa%is' a$ Se9aratis'

    +. 2thnonationalist Pakistan

    . Autonomism and %eparatism Today

    :/ Pa2ista6s Futures

    +. The Present as the =uture

    . A @ormal 6emocracy

    /. Authoritarian Pakistan

    7. An !slamic %tate

    8. %tate #reakup

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    INDUS 0ALLE; CI0ILIistorica% Narrative?

    4egal, the famous erman philosopher, gave a not untypical nineteenthcentury

    description of I$ia as a object o" $esire3 B=rom the most ancient times

    downwards, all nations have directed their wishes and longings to gaining access to

    the treasure of this land of marvels, the most costly which the 2arth presentsC

    treasures of @aturepearls, diamonds, perfumes, roseessences, elephants, lions, etc.

    as also treasures of wisdom. The way by which these treasures have passed to the

    :est, has at all times been a matter of :orldhistorical importance, bound up with

    the fate of nations".

    4e added approvingly, Bthe 2nglish, or rather the 2ast!ndia 1ompany are the lords of

    the landC for it is the necessary fate of Asiatic 2mpire to be subjected to 2uropeansD"

    !ndiathe land of wisdom and wealth3

    !ndia is real, the rest is plastic.

    !

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    !ndia seem like just one of the unhappy interludes in her long story". And on the

    opening page of Bthe !ndian %truggle" %ubhash 1handra #ose emphasi$ed two

    features critical to an understanding of !ndia3 first, its history had to be reckoned not

    in decades or in centuries but in thousands of yearsC and second, only under #ritish

    rule !ndia for the firs time in her history had begun to feel that she had been

    con

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    !n // #1, the year Ale*ander"s death in #abylon, the indoAryans of the anges

    valley led by 1handragupta, the founder of the 0auryan empire defeated the reeks

    in !ndica and reabsorbed the !ndus valley into #harat after a lapse of several

    centuries.

    6ue to many different historical names, the term %outh Asia is preferred over the

    term !ndia.

    INDUS 0ALLE; CI0ILI

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    wealth and food. According to #handarkar and other indologists, the hymns of the

    -igFeda are saturated with selfish sordid (ignoble) aims.

    The -igFeda mentions mortal conflict with the local inhabitants, presumably

    6ravidians who are identified as hostile in speech, noseless, irreligious and black.

    The holy books were kept them to themselves. There possession ensured control over

    the performance of the rituals and gave the #rahmans high social status and important

    privileges in the Fedic society

    T#e Cast S1ste'&The %anskrit for cast is verna and jati. Ferna is used to categori$e

    the four groups3 #rahmana (priest and educators), 5shatriya (:arriors) Faisya

    (cultivators and traders) and %hudras (dasasslaves). @ot all the indigenous people

    became part of the shudras varna. !t appears some big clans were coopted in the first

    three varnas because of their contribution.

    Fedic interpretation done only by the #rahmansDlater on it was said that one had to

    be born #rahman.

    FURT>ER DE0ELOPMENT IN T>E INDIAN CI0ILI

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    The 0auryan 2mpire had disintegrated politically but the !ndian 1ivili$ation

    managed not only to retain the moral and cultural unity created by Ashoka the great

    but indeed to flourish

    Racia% Iter'ig%ig& As the @orthern and @orth :estern part of the %ubcontinent

    had been mostly the place of habitat of the foreign invading forcesC therefore, the

    racial conseE CLASSICAL AGE OF >INDUISM&

    =T>E SECOND IMPERIAL UNIFICATION?

    T#e Gu9ta Era&The second !mperial Hnification of the %ubcontinent. The upta

    period is well known for the production of the secular and fundamentally optimistic

    literature in poetry, prose and drama. The significant themes for poetry were love,

    nature, story telling and morals.

    ARAS AND CENTRAL ASIAN IN0ASION

    Arabs3 >+ A6.

    1entral Asian conE MUG>AL EMPIRE

    The TurkoAfghans ruled form strong forts that were maintained as armed camps to

    guard against the indigenous population. #ut the 0ughals established a compact with

    the 4indu -ajputs, and in a way, began to live with and among them.

    Akbar (deeniillahi)

    Aurang$eb (the contradiction on Aurang$eb"s policies surfaced in the form of

    widespread rebellion among his 4indu and %ikh subjects. These two communities had

    been militari$ed at least partly by the negative impact of the strongarm 0ughal

    policies.

    '

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    Aurang$eb"s messianic visionDthat his ancestors were at faultDhe wanted to make

    the whole subcontinent an ideal !slamic state.

    4e died in +>>, left behind an unstable, ungovernable and dying empire)

    Na$ir S#a#6s Ivasio =.83?3 Fo%%o5e$ b1 Ab$a%i

    6elhi massacre, looting, and plundering3 :hat the !ndians could not do against him,

    however, the Afghans did. They assassinated @adir %hah in +>7>, took over hismantle and replaced !ranian invasion with Afghan invasion (Ahmad %hah Abdali).

    T>E RITIS> AD0ENT IN MARITIME TRADE IN T>E INDIAN OCEAN

    0ughals like 1hinese had ruled continental empires for centuries unaware of the

    increasing role that naval power was beginning to play in the distribution of power on

    the world. They were aloof from the changes taking place in 2urope. The other

    significance fact is that, while the ottomans and the 1hinese did wake up to reality

    and introduced moderni$ation in their countries, though a little too late, the 0ughals

    never woke up.

    The discovery of 1ape of ood 4ope in +7''3

    Fascodeama arrived in !ndia in +7'3

    =oreigners" struggle amongst each other3 =ranco6utch struggle, Anglo=rench and

    Anglo6utch struggle and %truggle with !ndian princes

    East I$ia Co'9a1/

    The #attle of Plassey +>8>3

    The 1rown -aj Post +'8>

    I$ia Civi%i!atio cou%$ ot be c#age$& @ow, the Princes appeared to be the

    buffers between the #ritish rulers and their subjects, they had to be created rather than

    dispensed with (get rid of), they were going to be partners rather than adversaries in

    governing !ndia. The attempt of imposing western culture and e*pecting the !ndians

    to become totally westerni$ed, this policy was changed and the #ritish government

    reali$ed this fact that east can never become west, as it is cleat from 5ippling famous

    phrase the east is east and the west in west and never the twain shall meet.

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    PAKISTAN& A S>ORT >ISTOR;

    Pa2ista a strategica%%1 i'9ortat coutr1 since its creationDglobal and

    regional strategic importanceD%trategic importance in the post +78 global

    politicsDeographical and strategic location3 %outh Asia, 0iddle 2ast, 1entral

    Asia, 1hina, Arabian %ea, !ndian &cean

    Pa2ista& t#e 'ost $e%iuet (criminal) o" atios6, =rench intellectual

    #ernard4enri Ievy (#4I). According to a senior !ndian diplomat, Pakistan

    Brepresents everything in the forefront of H.%. concerns3 religious

    fundamentalism, terrorism, weapons of mass destruction in possession of a failing

    state, a military dictatorship mas

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    (!ntroduction by !an Talbot)

    Pakistan for much of its history has been a state searc#ig "or a atioa%

    i$etit1. %trong nationalist sentiments among other ethnic groups about their

    identity. 2.g. Pushtoon, #aluch, %indhi and %arieki etcDPunjabi$ation of Pakistan

    is being blamed of these tendencies.

    %uccessive bouts (periods) of aut#oritaria ru%e #ave rei"orce$ cetri"uga%

    ="orce 9u%%ig a5a1 "ro' t#e ceter? et#ic %iguistic a$ regioa% "orces .

    This was seen most dramatically in the #engal nationalists" struggle with the state

    which culminated in civil war and the se9aratio o" East Pa2ista i .8..

    Major reasos o" Pa2ista beig a u success"u% state3

    +. The tendency to regard all dissent (opposition) as a law and order rather

    than a political issueC =ito%erace to5ar$s $e'ocratic cu%ture?

    . The manipulation and the repression of popular forces by successive

    authoritarian regimesC and ='i%itar1 ru%e?

    /. The uneven relationship between the Punjab and other regions in the

    conduct of national affairs. =Pujabi!atio o" Pa2ista?

    Pa2istai 9o%itics3 personalities count rather than ideologies or party

    institutionali$ationD2lectoral politics dominated by elite families

    T#e over$eve%o9'et o" t#e ue%ecte$ istitutiosof the Pakistan state has

    perpetuated the problem of weak legitimati$ation as well as e*acerbating ethnic

    politics by reinforcing the regional elites" claims of a Punjabisation of Pakistan.

    Pa2ista6s 9osti$e9e$ece #istor1&Pakistan"s postindependence history has

    thus been a fruitless search for stability with fre

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    Ginnah"s aim and that of the professional elite who controlled the Ieague was to

    wrest a state in which 0uslim economic, political and cultural interests could be

    safeguarded, but ot to create a Is%a'ic state.

    Po%itics o" i$etit1 i Pa2ista3 Lunas %amad, has argued that the 0uslims

    nationalism of the freedom struggle and postindependence linguistic?ethnic

    nationalism are alike vehicles for minorities" counterhegemonic aspirations.

    Securit1 $i%e''a3 Pakistan is a garrison state surrounded by three of the world"s

    top four military powers, haunted by a history of wars with !ndia.

    Istitutioa% 5ea2ess3 Iawrence ;iring for e*ample has linked the introduction

    of Pakistan"s first martial law regime in +8' with the institutional weakness

    resulting in part from the collapse of the 0uslim Ieague.

    Pujabi!atio3 The region, which accounts for 89M of the total population, has

    become the arbiter of national authority not just under periods of martial law, but

    during civilian ruleD.Punjab"s political predominance was greatly increased with

    the breakaway of 2ast Pakistan in +>+. Punjabi domination of the Army has had

    immense political repercussions, for the Army had been the most important

    institution in the state and the selfappointed upholder of Pakistani stability and

    national identity.

    Re%igio as a 5ea2 'ea o" uio3 religion alone has proved an insufficient

    means of building a nation out of separate ethnic groups who had never

    9revious%1 coeHiste$ eHce9t u$er co%oia%is'.

    The task of nation building in Pakistan had been hampered not only by unresolved

    conflicts between regional, religious and nationalist identity inherited from the

    freedom movement, but by the atte'9ts o" successive 'artia% %a5 regi'es to

    "orcib%1 i'9ose a atioa% i$etit1 rat#er t#a ac#ieve it b1 cosesus/

    IS PAKISTAN A FAILED STATE

    @& 5#et#er Pa2ista "ai%ure is a strog 9ossibi%it1/ I" so 5ou%$ Pa2ista$isso%ve s%o5%1 or co%%a9se i a su$$e catac%1s' =Disaster?/ Or 5ou%$ it

    beco'e a out%a5 a$ t#reat to t#e etire 5or%$ actig as a base "or

    iteratioa% terroris' a$ 9er#a9s s#arig its uc%ear 5ea9os tec#o%og1

    5it# ot#er states a$ terrorist grou9s Ca Pa2ista beco'e a or'a% state

    at 9eace 5it# its eig#bors a$ itse%"

    +

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    +>+ catastrophe

    A stable, prosperous, progressive Pakistan could trigger a new spurt of %outh

    Asian development, in partnership with !ndia and Afghanistan.

    Pa2ista #as ever #a$ a 9o9u%ar revo%utioC since its creation, it has been

    oscillated between unstable democracy and benign authoritarianism.

    Pakistan does well in many areas and arguably can still emerge as a successful

    state and cohesive nation.

    DEFINITION OF A FAILED STATE&

    At least five kinds of failure can be identified3

    +. The failure to live up to past e*pectations, one"s own and those of others3

    . =ailure of vision3

    /. 2conomic failure3

    7. =ailure of leadership3

    8. 1atastrophic failure3 internationali$ation of ethnic conflict spread of

    nuclear weapons or dangerous conventional weapons and !slamic

    radicalism.

    PAKISTAN& A S>ORT >ISTOR;

    0uslims" rule in !ndia3

    #ritish Arrival3

    +'8>3

    0uslim -eformist 0ovements3

    0uslim %eparatism (1reation of A!0I +9)3

    Iahore -esolution +7

    1reation of Pakistan +7>

    =ounding =athers of Pakistan3 Toward +87, the 0uslim Ieague, whose

    supporters were in large part migrants from !ndia, went into decline, losing power

    in both wings. 1ontrol fell to a coalition of NmigrN politicians, bureaucrats, and,

    eventually, the army. Also in +87, the four provinces of :est Pakistan were

    combined into a single administrative entity under a B&neHnit" scheme, to

    balance the more populous 2ast :ing.

    +/

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    =irst constitution +89

    +8' =irst 1oup by eneral Ayub 5han3 beginning of Pakistan"s long e*periment

    with military rule, Pakistan has had four spells of direct or indirect military rule

    and several failed coup attempts.

    After winning ' percent of the votes in a Byes or no" referendum, Ayub became

    president on =ebruary +>, +9.

    -apid economic growth during Ayub"s tenure3

    6efense pacts with H% i.e. %2AT& (%outh Asia Treaty &rgani$ation) O 12@T&

    (1entral Treaty &rgani$ation)

    0isadventure of +983 deception by H%

    %trategic ties with 1hina

    =all of Ayub

    Lahya"s martial law +9

    .8*& First ever "air e%ectios, Lahya denied 2ast Pakistan leader, %heikh

    0ujibur -ahman, the prime ministership and instead allowed a military

    crackdown in 2ast Pakistan. Pakistan was defeated, more than , Pakistani

    troops surrendered. 1hina, which had developed a strategic and military tie with

    Pakistan to maintain a balance with the %oviet Hnion and !ndia, declined to

    intervene on Pakistan"s behalf, while the H% did little more than make political

    and military gestures, which included the dispatch of a carrier, the 2nterprise, to

    the #ay of #engal.

    Post .8. Pa2ista3 the balance of political poor changed too. Punjab became

    Pakistan"s dominant province, being both more populous than %indh, #aluchistan,

    or the @:=P and economically far more prosperous as well as contribution the

    overwhelming number of officers and soldiers to the ruling military.

    #hotto"s era

    +>/ constitution3

    Peace treaty with !ndia in +>3 Si'%a agree'et, to secure the return of

    Pakistani prisoners of war.

    -uthless suppression of a separatist movement in #aluchistan that was modeled

    after the 2ast Pakistan breakaway.

    +7

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    #utto6s Is%a'ic socia%is'3 to appease both his religious parties" critics and his

    leftist supporters, but his autocratic style of governance (and the army"s wariness)

    led to mass protests over delegitimi$ed parliamentary elections and a coup on Guly

    7, +>> toppled #hutto"s government.

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    )**: E%ectios& PPP 5is

    Restoratio o" Bu$iciar1

    PML =N? as a o99ositio 9art1

    .:t#A'e$'et

    T>E IDEA OF PAKISTAN&

    (&rigins of the !dea of Pakistan)

    0uslim !nvasion of %outh Asia3 Arab invasion >+ A.6, 6elhi %ultanate (++

    +89), 0ughal !nvasion (+89+>>)

    Is%a' i I$ia3 considerable adaptation and change in !slam. A ic%usivist a$

    beig Mus%i' ru%e, 0ughal"s !ndiani$ation of !slam (or 0uslim citi$ens),

    intermarriages between 0uslim ruling families and their highcaste 4indu

    counterparts, as family ties were used to shore up political alliances. 4owever,

    some regions e*perienced t#e 'i%itat eHc%usivist si$e o" Is%a', with the

    +9

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    destruction of 4indu temples and attacks on the #rahmindominated 4indu social

    order taking place in such renowned pilgrimage destinations as 0ultan and

    %omnath. The most vivid account of these con

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    !n sum, !slam thrived in !ndia for a variety of reasons3 intermarriages,

    conversion, the attractiveness of !slamic egalitarianism, and social and

    political advantages in a conte*t of 0uslim rulers.

    4indu and 0uslims engaged in '1t# creatio, a process that continues

    unchecked today in both !ndia and Pakistan.

    !n fact, scholars have found little evidence of massive cruelty and cultural

    barbarism, or the wholesale destruction of temples, only some temples looting and

    capture of holy images by 0uslim and 4indu rulers alike.

    The #ritish -aj3

    .:48& t#e %oss o" Po5er a$ I$etit1, in the words of Akbar %. Ahmed, the

    0uslims of !ndia Blost their kingdom, their 0ughal 2mpire, their emperor, their

    language, their culture, their capital city of 6elhi, and their sense of self".

    0uslims now felt not only politically vulnerable but also concerned for their very

    identity.

    6islocation of the 0uslim community in the post+'8> !ndia3 also by promoting

    democratic institutions, liberal #ritish authorities inadvertently (unintentionally)

    bestowed a permanent minority status on 0uslims in greater !ndia, as they would

    always be outnumbered by the larger 4indu community.

    C%ass a$ Socia% $i""ereces stroger a$ i"%uetia% t#a re%igious3 0uch of

    the 4indu0uslims tension in #ritish !ndia (and in !ndia and #angladesh today)

    stemmed not from religious but from class and social differences.

    Mus%i's6 cocers&by the time of the -aj, !ndia"s 0uslims had become a

    politically and culturally mi*ed population. They had a dispossessed (e*pelled)

    court, narrow elite, and large poor peasantry. =illed with fresh memories of

    +'

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    grandeur and glory, they grew increasingly frustrated and fearful as 4indus

    adapted more swiftly than 0uslims to the -aj"s new political and social order.

    T#e irt# o" a I$ea&

    Sir S1e$ A#'e$ K#aa re"or'ist a e$ucatioist a$ a 'o$erist =.:.8

    :?&although %ir %yed A. khan was dedicated to 0uslim moderni$ation, !slam"s

    destiny, and the idea of a pan!slamic identity, he stopped short of advocating a

    separate state for !ndia"s 0uslims. @evertheless, a separate status for !ndia"s

    0uslims was in the works and became an important milestone on the road leading

    to Pakistan.

    !

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    were a majority in four of eleven #ritish !ndian provinces. 6emocracy threatened

    the minority 0uslim community, forcing it to establish its own political order,

    Pakistan.

    Pakistan has always lacked the industrial base to sustain a modern army, let alone

    the technological capacity enabled its predominate Punjabi army to dominate

    Pakistani politics. 0eanwhile, !ndia"s highly pluralistic officer corps remains both

    apolitical and professional, and @ew 6elhi can draw upon superior fiscal and

    material resources.

    lorious Past, lorious =uture @& 5#1 t#e I$ia6 subi$etit1 is 'issig i

    t#e i$ea o" Pa2ista As iroica%%1 t#e Arab a$ Cetra% Asia is 'uc#

    9reset/

    T#e i$ea o" Pa2ista beig a vague i$ea #as ever bee s#a9e$ ito 9ractica%

    t#oug# c#age$ "ro' ti'e to ti'e/

    PARTITION OF INDIA&

    !n their book 0odern %outh AsiaQ, Ayesha Galal and %ugata #ose in the chapter

    Partition of !ndia and the creation of PakistanQ, argue that the idea of partition of !ndia

    was neither based on the !ndian nationalists viewthat the partition was the #ritish

    imperialist policy of divide and rule which divided !ndia into two communitiesC nor what

    most Pakistani historians say that the creation of Pakistan was motivated by the !slamic

    ideology and was based on the Two @ation Theory, according to which !ndian 0uslims

    were always a distinctive and separate community that had resisted assimilation into

    their !ndian environment. #oth Ayesha Galal and 4am$a Alavi share the same views that

    the partition of +7> was no more than a partial solution to the 0uslims minority

    problem in the subcontinent. To 4am$a the Pakistan movement was a movement of

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    0uslims rather than of !slam. :hat both the writers say that !slam should not be seen as

    the only driving force behind the creation of Pakistan.

    4istorically analysing, the failure of the +'8> rebellion had made the 0uslims

    greatly discontent. !ndia was now under the total control of the #ritish raj. The 0uslims

    bereavement was more than the 4indus as !ndia had been ruled by the 0uslims before

    the arrival of the colonialists. This hatred and frustration towards the new rulers and the

    rejection of the new #ritish set up had made the 0uslims politically, economically,

    socially and educationally backward visRvis 4indus. This backwardness of 0uslims

    was perceived by the great 0uslim reformist %iayed Ahmad 5han founder of the Aligarh

    movement. 6uring +''s he proposed the concept of Two @ation Theory. This he did in

    order to e*hort 0uslims to shun the predominant 4indu congress and to impress the

    #ritish the need to view their importance in political rather than numerical terms. The

    theory of Two @ationsQ, at that time, should not be confused with the demand of a

    separate state.

    To sooth the dissatisfaction of 0uslims and maintaining a balance between

    communities the #ritish granted separate electorates to 0uslims in local government

    bodies. To Galal the main purpose of these reforms was to confine !ndian politics to the

    provinces, and to keep the centre e*clusively under the purview of the #ritish -aj. This

    act of playing the region against the centre could surely secure the #ritish imperial

    interests.

    4ere it should be noted, as pointed out by both Galal and Alavi, that despite the

    e*istence of All !ndia 0uslim Ieague since +9, 0uslims politicians which were

    mostly landed notables hardly needed any assistance from organi$ed political parties at

    the centre or in the provinces. !n the +/9> elections, 0uslim Ieague tried to get the

    support of the 0uslimmajority provinces on the provincial level and to deal with

    congress on the all !ndia levelC but was badly defeated on both the stages the Ieague won

    on only 7.7M of the total 0uslim votes.

    Though the +/9> election was a disastrous result for the Ieague, but it was a

    fact that !ndian 0uslims, however divided and disorgani$ed, remained a separate

    +

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    foreclose alternative outcomes. :hat Ginnah was really aiming for a grouping of 0uslims

    majority provinces enjoying a degree of regional autonomy, possibly with in an overall

    !ndian federal union rather than the partition of !ndiaC especially if that was to entail

    carving up Punjab and #engal. To both Alavi and Galal Ginnah was in Punjab. !n this kind of chaotic situation Iondon"s

    main priority was to get out of !ndia as soon as possible with the least possible harm to

    their interests. &n th =ebruary +7> the #ritish prime minister, 1lement Attlee

    announced that #ritain would depart from !ndia by /th Gune +7'. The congress

    immediately demanded the partition of Punjab and #engal as well. :hat Galal says that

    from the congress (led by @ehru and vallahbhai petal) attitude it seemed that it was more

    eager in the partition of !ndia than even 0uslim league. And according to her, congress

    (@ehru and Petal) was ready of partitioning #engal and Punjab at the price of takingpower from the #ritish at the centre. Though ironically in 0ay +7>, the united and

    independent state of #engal was agreed by the #engali nationalist leader 1handra #ose

    and 0uslim league leader 4ussein shaeed suhrawardy. The scheme received the

    endorsement of both andhi and Ginnah. #ut the implacable opposition of @ehru and

    petal made 0ountbatten to partitioned #engal as well. And thus finally on +7 thAugust

    +7> Pakistan came into being with partitioned Punjab and #engal as its parts.

    Coc%usio&

    Ayesha Galal has raised a very interesting and standard debate on the partition of

    !ndia, and the creation of Pakistan and the role of Ginnah as a sole spokesman for the all

    !ndian 0uslims. To Galal the creation of Pakistan was a one man show i.e. Ginnah. %he

    didn"t give much importance to the role of 0uslim landlords, the student and teachers of

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    Aligarh Hniversity and the 6eobandi and #arelwi Hlemas, who had also a much

    influence on the ordinary 0uslims in the creation of Pakistan. &ne objection raised by

    0ushirul 4asan about Galal"s work is that her work on the making of Pakistan is mostly

    onesided, based on official sources, on 0uslim league records and on Ginnah"s private

    records. !n his book !ndia"s partitionQ 4assan suggests to Galal that she should e*amine

    the vast collection of private papers and newspapers in !ndian libraries and achieves, that

    might will change her perspective, or perhaps not.

    -egardless of both the views that 0uslims were in fact a nation and the #ritish

    policy of divide and rule, Galal thinks that in fact it was the contradictions and structural

    peculiarities of !ndian society and politics in late colonial !ndia which eventually led to

    the creation of Pakistan. 4am$a Alavi view regarding the partition of !ndia is more or

    less the same, that the Pakistan movement was neither a millenarian ideological

    movement of the reali$ation of an !slamic state nor was it a movement of the 0uslim

    feudal landlords, who wanted Pakistan to safeguard their own interests. To Alavi the

    central driving force behind the Pakistan movement was one particular social group

    which he calls theQ %alariatQthe urban western educated professionals(generally lawyers,

    journalists and urban intellectuals) who emerged in the conte*t of the colonial

    transformation of !ndian society. And who were the functionaries in the e*panding

    colonial apparatus. &ne more important thing regarding Galal"s work on Partition of !ndia

    is that she thinks of personalities as a shaping force behind the partition of !ndia, than

    groups (what Alavi thinks). To her congress, in late colonial !ndia, was only @ehru and

    Patel and 0uslim Ieague was only Ginnah.

    Partition of !ndia

    POST .:48 INDIA

    E post+'8> !ndia (political democrati$ation introduced by #ritish in post+'8>

    !ndia threatened 0uslims throughout #ritish !ndia, especially the 0uslims of the

    Hnited Provinces (HP)

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    E According to one source, in +''9 the 0uslims, who constituted +/.7 M of the

    population of the area, nevertheless occupied 78M of the administrative positions

    (Gaffrelot, )

    E 0uslims of the Hnited Provinces (HP) Karistocratic inheritors of the 0ughal

    2mpireS

    E !n +'>+, in #engal, of the >>/ !ndians holding responsible government jobs, the

    0uslims, even though their numbers were appro*imately e

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    Province and the #engali nationalists were all secular in nature and of course

    hostile to the Pakistan movement)

    E 0uslim Ieague leaders (mostly secular)

    E 0I labeling Pakistan 0ovement as an !slamic 0ovement (B!slam in 6anger" and

    B4indu 1ongress")

    E Targeting 0uslim 0ajority Provinces

    E Punjab which held the key to the credibility of the Pakistan demand was targeted.

    E propaganda campaign against the Punjab"s Hnionist Party.

    POST .38 ELECTIONS STRATEG; OF AIML

    E %ind (the %ufis (Pirs) played an important role in %ind in populari$ing the

    Pakistan cause (Ansari, + cited in Talbot, , p. +79).

    E @orth :est =rontier Province KB5hudai 5hidmatgars" (%ervants of od)S

    E @onreligious 0ovements were countered through local Pirs.

    E +79 2lections (0uslim Ieague secured >8 per cent of the total 0uslim vote in

    comparison with 7.7 per cent in +/>)

    T>E IDEA OF PAKISTAN (The revisionist school of modern %outh Asian

    historiography)

    E !ts victory in the +79 elections enabled the 0uslim Ieague to demand a separate

    state on behalf of the 0uslims of !ndia, but the idea of Pakistan was still not clear.

    E Ginnah as hailed by %arojini @aidu as the Bambassador of 4indu0uslim unity",

    having support of 0uslim majority provinces was still struggling for grouping of

    0uslim majority provinces which could have enjoyed a degree of regional

    autonomy, possibly within an overall !ndian =ederal Hnion rather than

    Partitioning !ndia.

    CAINET MISSION PLAN

    E .,7& CAINET MISSION PLAN =t#reetiere$ a%% I$ia "e$eratio?

    E Ginnah interpreted the scheme to be a defacto recognition of his Pakistan 6emand3

    the groups would have constituent assemblies of their ownC the constitution of the

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    federal central could eventually be designed to be a mere agency with e*ecutive

    and not legislative powers. The 1ongress also was amenable to the scheme.

    E #ut 1ongress argued that the provinces were free to opt out of a group to which

    they did not wish to belong. 1ongress had a ministry in northwestern province

    which was in roup # and under the 1ongress reading it should have a choice to

    opt out.

    E The plan provided only the choice between an undivided !ndia with a weak

    federal structure with compulsory grouping of 0uslim and 4indu majority

    provinces, or a separate independent sovereign centre, that would constitute only

    of the 0uslim majority districts of #engal and Punjab.

    E Ginnah accepted @ehru rejected.

    E The idea of partition of !ndia was neither based on the !ndian nationalists" view

    that partition was the #ritish imperialist policy of divide and rule nor, what most

    Pakistani historians declare that it was motivated by !slamic ideology and was

    based on Two @ation Theory.

    E BPakistan movement was a movement of 0uslims rather than of !slam" (Alavi)

    E To the revisionist school Bthe partition of +7> was no more than a partial solution

    to the 0uslims minority problem in the subcontinent"

    E Ginnah the sole spokesman (a grand strategist)

    E Pakistan -esolution (0arch +7, the gist of that resolution was the acceptance of

    0uslims as a nation and not a minority, as had been presumed in the past)

    E :hat Ginnah really aiming for was a grouping of 0uslim majority provinces

    enjoying a degree of regional autonomy, possibly within an overall !ndian federal

    union rather than the partition of !ndiaC especially if that was to entail carving up

    Punjab and #engal (#ose O Galal, )

    E Ginnah had always kept the demand for Pakistan vague, mainly as a bargaining

    chip to negotiate with 1ongress to have e

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    E 1ongress (@ehru and Petal) was ready for partitioning #engal and Punjab, at the

    price of taking power from the #ritish at the centre.

    E #ritish hasty withdrawal.

    E 1ongress demand of partitioning #engal and Punjab.

    E Ginnah was

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    >ORRORS OF PARTITION

    + to +7 million people were caught up in the process of mass migrationC over one

    million were killed in violent encounters, and an estimated >8, women were abductedand subjected to se*ual violence.

    CONFLICTING 0IEJS AOUT T>E ORIGIN OF PAKISTAN&

    (PA5!%TA@ The =ormative Phase (+'8>+7') by 5alid bin %ayeed.)

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    There are so many different and opposing views about the origin of Pakistan that

    it seems very difficult and challenging to adopt a single view, with authority,

    about the origin of Pakistan.

    a) #ritish policy of 6ivide and -ule3 0ahatma andhi, whilst speaking in the

    second session of the -ound Table conference in Iondon in +/+, said that the

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    d) Another popular view regards Pakistan as no more than a personal triumph of the

    brilliant strategy and willpower of UuaidiA$am. %ome have gone so far as to

    suggest that had Ginnah died earlier, there would not have been Pakistan.

    e) -evisionist"s %chool of Thought3 Galal"s view.

    2ach, perhaps, contribute its share and Pakistan was brought about by a

    multiplicity of factors. #ut perhaps a dominant or decisive cause of

    Pakistan is that there has never taken place a confluence of the two

    civili$ations in !ndiathe 4indu and the 0uslims (5#%).

    ) Ag%oMus%i' Coci%iatio a$ t#e egiigs o" >i$uMus%i' Tesio

    i I$ia .:48..,

    Post+'8> !ndia3 Persian ceased to be the official languageD4indus holding all

    the lucrative positions.

    !n +'>+, in #engal, of the >>/ !ndians holding responsible government jobs, the

    0uslims, even though their numbers were appro*imately e

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    The Arya %amaj a reformist 0ovement which was less violent in its nature

    started in +'>>.

    1hatterjee"s Anandamath (the Abbey of #liss) an anti0uslim novel which incites

    the 4indu against the 0uslims and to work for the revival of 4induism. !t was in

    this novel that the famous song B#ande 0ataram (hail mother) appeared.

    Another 4indu movement which advocated militancy is that of Tilak. Talik

    believed in killing one"s enemy by deception. 4is men were engaged in killing

    #ritish officers. The movement took a clear anti0uslim turn and was run and

    organi$ed on 4indu lines.

    The #ritish gained their first foothold in the coastal areas of the provinces of

    0adras, #ombay and #engalin these areas 4indus were in majority therefore

    were e*posed first to the impact of #ritish or :estern ideas, education and culture

    or traditionsDuniversities in 1alcutta, 0adras and #ombay were established in

    +'8>.

    T>E PARTITION OF ENGAL& .*4

    A relieve to the poor 0uslims of #engal from the commercial and

    professional supremacy of the western 4indu #engalis

    %evere opposition from the 4indus of every field.

    The partition of #engal was an administrative issue, an area of , s'.8 million people of great headache to administer

    for the #ritish governor of #engal.

    The @ationalists vehemently opposed the idea they thought was a deliberate

    blow aimed at the growing solidarity and self consciousness of the #engalis

    speaking population. A clear and vocal anti0uslim stance was taken by

    several 4indu #engali @ationalists in their writings.

    T>E AOLIS>MENT OF T>E PARTITION OF ENGALA SETACK

    TO AIML& ...

    The annulment of the partition of #engal in +++ was a turning point in the

    history of !ndian 0uslims. !t was a shock for 0uslims particularly for A!0I

    the followers of %ir %yed, who were greatly disappointed by the #ritish

    decision of the abolishment of the partition of #engal due to 4indu"s pressure.

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    The decision of the #ritish government created mistrust between the 0uslims

    and them.

    %hibli"s criticism against A!0I about its political methods and appreciation

    of congress human resourced policies. 1ongress had never elected its

    presidents from the landed gentry where as the A!0I leadership was

    completely in the hands of such people. %hibli argued that situation in villages

    is very much brotherly between the two communities. 4e believed in the

    combined efforts of 4indus and 0uslims to achieve political objectives.

    T#e K#i%a"at Move'et& .)*s

    At this time constitutionalists like Ginnah were relegated in the background

    and men like andhi and 0ohammad Ali Gohar, who were e*perts in

    e*traconstitutional methods, were called upon to guide the political

    destines of 4indu and 0uslims.

    The anti0uslims policies all over the world by the :est infuriated the

    0uslims.

    The intensely heated journals of 0ohammad Ali and A$ad stirred up the

    0uslims, these journals contributed immense vigor to the 5ilafat

    0ovement.

    A$ad"s criti

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    0opala rising.

    1hauri1haura

    4indu revivalist movement of %huddhi and %angathan, used to train the

    4indus of swordsmanship and physical e*ercises to train them for

    fighting.

    0ustafa 5amal Pasha abolished the 5hilafat in +7.

    The murder of %wami %hradhanandthe founder of %huddi 0ovement in

    +9 heightened 4indu0uslim animosity.

    =rom the beginning it was detected that the 4indu0uslim unity was not

    on firm foundation.

    !t failed because it was a wrong ideology, romantic and out of touch with

    actualities.

    5hilafat 0ovement was the first and only 0ovement in which both 4induand 0uslims had played a joint role on a mass scale. #ut freedom of !ndia

    was not the first and only objective.

    T>E EMERGENCE OF PAKISTAN&

    Iahore -esolution a vague resolutionmultiple interpretation.

    !t may be suggested that the vagueness of the Iahore -esolution was

    perhaps deliberately designed. %ome writers have argued that this gave

    room to Ieague leaders for bargaining and maneuvering.

    !t has been reported that 0ountbatten pointed out to the Ieague leaders

    that the area of Pakistan as envisaged in the Iahore -esolution did not

    include the entire provinces of Punjab, #engal and Assam because the

    Iahore -esolution carefully used the phrase Bareas in which the 0uslims

    are numerically in a majority". This shows that the Ieague leaders were

    not sure and confident about the majority in the #engal and Punjab.

    Pakistan 0ovement was a movement started with the objectives of

    securing the interests of the !ndian 0uslims which later on turned into the

    demand of a separate state.

    0ountbatten never seriously tried to bring about an understanding

    between the congress and the league on the basis of the 1abinet 0ission

    Plan.

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    @ehru and Patel acceptance of Pakistan as inevitable.

    0ountbatten under @ehru"s influence.

    0ountbatten"s haste decision of Partition caused 4indu0uslim conflict.

    0uslim Ieague"s Propaganda of reminding the 0uslims of their past

    glory.

    0uslim educated elites neither were nor interested about their religiousand cultural rights but about their share in the government.

    Total absence of competition from other 0uslims political organi$ations.

    Ginnah a sole spokesman of A!0I

    !t has been said that no political leader in the subcontinent could e*cel

    Ginnah in the ferocity and biting sarcasm with which he attacked his

    political opponents.

    %ome went as far that if there were no Ginnah there would be no Pakistan.

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    T>E STATE OF PAKISTAN&

    To the founding fathers Pakistan would be a democratic, liberal, and just state. !t would

    live peaceably with its minority 4indu population, and relations with !ndia would be

    normal, possibly encompassing regional cooperation. 4ow this vision was reali$ed during

    the subse

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    Kas#'ir 9o%ic1. 4e foresaw cooperation, despite the personal strains between

    him and the 1ongress leadership and the rivalry between the 0uslim Ieague and

    the 1ongress.

    Is t#e 9reset Pa2ista 5#at Bia# 5ate$ Jou%$ Bia# recogi!e t#e

    Pa2ista to$a1

    CONSE@UENCES OF PARTITION&

    0ass migration3 the migrated 0uhajirs taking control

    Partition confirmed many Pakistanis" worst fears about !ndia especially among

    migrants.

    Co''ua% vio%ece& 'iorities i 9er9etua% t#reat

    Partitio create$ #atre$ t#a goo$ re%atios#i93 many refugees nurtured, as

    their descendants still do, a deep hatred against B4indu !ndia or artificial

    Pakistan". =rom the perspective of the new Pakistani elite, the ensuing violence

    simply proved how right they had been to seek a separate country.

    ritis# %egac13 educated and efficient bureaucracy and trained army and landed

    gentry. The task of protecting and caring for the NmigrNs hence fell to Pakistani

    bureaucrats and young arm officers. They performed their impossible task with

    valor, a$ t#e eH9eriece 9ro9e%%e$ t#e' to t#e e5 state6s ceter stage .

    Animosity and mistrust between !ndia and Pakistan.

    Kas#'ir

    T#e Le"t e#i$3 whenever a crisis with Pakistan has occurred, or whenever

    5ashmir flares up, all eyes have turned to !ndia"s 0uslims population for their

    reaction. =or a state whose creation was justified as necessary for the continued

    survival of %outh Asian 0uslims, the presence of these 0uslims on the other side

    of the border is inconvenient.

    Partition transformed the economies of the regions that became Pakistan. !n :est

    Pakistan as a whole, ' percent of industrial firms had been owned by non

    0uslims. !n 2ast Pakistan, a 4indu trading caste, the 0arwaris, had controlled

    almost all the trade and industrythough the e*odus from 2ast Pakistan was not as

    dramatic or complete as from the :est :ing. The e*odus of 4indu merchants

    and business families living in what would become Pakistan was matched by a

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    heavy migration of 0uslims families leaving !ndia out of fear for their lives and

    property. The !ndian state of ujarat e*perienced the largest outflow, but #ombay

    and 1alcutta also saw important families depart. 2.g. 4abibs of ujarat,

    !spahanis, %aigols and Adamjees of 1alcutta.

    T#e Kas#'ir Curse3 After partition, the 5ashmir ruler was faced with an

    invasion of tribal warriors sent from the @:=P. 4e invited the !ndian army to

    repel the invadersbut !ndia first demanded his accession, which he provided.

    Thus, 5ashmir became the only 0uslim majority state in !ndia.

    Kas#'ir issue3 a strengthening factor to the idea of Pakistan and to the Two

    @ation Theory.

    Pakistan has had a military strategy for 5ashmir but not a political one, e*cept to

    try to embarrass !ndia in international forums. The obsession with 5ashmir for

    over fifty years can be said to have seriously damaged Pakistan"s prospects as a

    state, but it is a cost that several generations of Pakistani leaders have been

    willing to pay, and the same can be said of their !ndian counterparts.

    T#e Strugg%e to ui%$ a State&

    4aving failed to establish enduring and credible political institutions, Pakistan

    continued to face instability. Actually, a number of factors were to blame3

    +. An immediate leadership crisis3 Ginnah (died, +7') and IA5

    (assassinated, +8+). 0uslim Ieague soon fractured3 its leaders, newly arrived from !ndia,

    lacked a political base in the provinces that became :est Pakistan.

    /. 2ast Pakistan, + miles away3 deep differences between the populations

    of the 2ast and the :est :ings. 2ast Pakistanis (#engalis) in majority but

    were sidelined from the state affairs.

    A%t#oug# it 'a1 ot #ave %ive$ u9 to its "ou$ers6 eH9ectatios Pa2ista $i$ 'ove

    a#ea$ ecoo'ica%%1 i stri$e 5it# t#e 'uc# %arger I$ia a$ estab%is#e$ its o5

    iteratioa% i$etit1/ T#ree "actors cotribute$ to t#ese successes/

    +. 6espise to disprove !ndia3

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    . 5ashmir3 several policy issues Pakistan faced had the effect of

    strengthening the state and reinforcing the idea behind it. &ne of these was

    5ashmir.

    /. =oreign Aid (economic and military)3 12@T& O %2AT&

    T#e Disiterest i De'ocrac1&

    The ruling groups (civil bureaucracy, army, landed gentry) in Pakistan lacked

    commitment to democratic forms.

    Pakistan"s international supporters were ambivalent (uncertain) about democracy

    too. The American agenda was clear3 a pro:estern Pakistan, a stable Pakistan, a

    prosperous Pakistan, and a democratic Pakistan were all desirable, but in that

    order.

    =rom the beginning having a constitutionally uncertain environment, Pakistan did

    not take long to move in an authoritarian direction. 0any Pakistanis, especially in

    the :est :ing, felt comfortable with this authoritarian arrangement for it was

    modeled on the (#ritish) -aj, which had been a benevolent and usually benign

    authoritarian system.

    A Jit#ere$ Bu$iciar1&

    Pakistan"s courts have become increasingly sensitive to political and physicalpressures to bend their rulings in favor of the military or civilian government in

    power.

    T#e $octrie o" ecessit13 that which otherwise is not lawful, necessity makes it

    lawful.

    Atte'9ts at ui%$ig a Costitutio&

    !n its 8> years, Pakistan has had three constitutions, those of +89, +9, and

    +>/. The +89 constitution replaced the governorgeneral with a president, but

    with power in the hands of a prime minister elected by a national parliament. !t

    preserved most of the #ritish !ndian constitutional structure and declared Pakistan

    to be an !slamic -epublic. &ther than that, there were no significant !slamic steps

    introduced, to the disappointment of the !slamic parties. The constitution of +9

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    politicians, food crises, and the e*ploitation of Pakistan"s masses had compelled

    his action. T#us bega Pa2ista6s %og eH9eri'et 5it# Mi%itar1 ru%e bro2e

    o%1 b1 s9e%%s o" #ig#%1 9ersoa%istic so'eti'es autocratic civi%ia

    gover'ets a%% o" 5#ic# 5ere care"u%%1 5atc#e$ a$ evetua%%1 $e9ose$ b1

    t#e ar'1. 0ilitary rule was bitterly opposed by a few Pakistani politicians, but

    most found a role in the new system or dropped out of politics.

    Mi%itar1 Raj&

    Pa2ista& Fro' a >o'e%a$ "or I$ia Mus%i's to a e5 visio o" a

    Fortress/

    Iike the (#ritish) -aj, it justified its rule in strategic and moral terms.

    Grave 'atters o" state securit1 5ere ta2e out o" t#e #a$s o" 9o%iticias .

    Pakistan was to e*perience a transition "ro' a #o'e%a$ "or I$ia

    Mus%i's to a "ortress, where its citi$ens could live more or less B!slamic"

    lives secure from the predatory !ndia.

    After he became president, Ayub took the lead in articulating this new vision

    of Pakistan. It was Brahmin chauvinism and arrgance that had 'rced us t

    seek a hmeland ' ur wn where we culd rder ur li'e accrding t ur

    wn thinking and 'aith. %hey wanted us t remain as ser's, which was

    !recisely the cnditin in which the #uslims minrity in India lived tday.

    %here was the 'undamental !!sitin between the idelgies ' India andPakistan. %he whle Indian sciety was based n class distinctin in which

    even the shadw ' a lw-caste man was enugh t !llute a member ' the

    high caste. (=riends not 0asters)

    4is dismissal of the defense of 2ast Pakistan became a major #engali

    grievance after the +98 war. !f Pakistani generals thought that 2ast Pakistan

    could be sacrificed to !ndia to save :est Pakistan, why should #engalis stay

    in the Pakistani federation !t was a

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    into 5ashmir, supported by regular Pakistan arm troops. The !ndians rejected

    the proposal. !n return, @ehru offered a Bno war" agreement between !ndia and

    Pakistanwhich was rejected by Pakistan.

    Do'estic Re"or's&

    Ayub"s years were a break from the chaos and disorder that preceded his

    coup. 6omestically, Ayub set about transforming a coup d"etat into a

    revolution.

    Pakistan became a widely admired case study of nation building directed by

    the army.

    +9 constitution3 it created a presidency indirectly elected by ', union

    councilors. 1ivil military coalition.

    Ecoo'ic Gais&

    Pakistan"s e*port during these years surpassed those of Thailand, 0alaysia,

    and %ingapore combines. 1ountries such as %outh 5orea and 0alaysia saw

    Pakistan as a model for e*portled growth strategies. Today they are regarded

    as models for Pakistan. Pakistan was also the darling of the developed world

    in the +8s and +9s, and massive American, 2uropean, and Gapanese aidand investment flowed in, along with substantial military grants and sales

    from :ashington.

    Ecoo'ic ieua%ities(concentration of wealth in a few hands)3 according to

    0ahbubul4a< that 99M of the country"s economy, >M of insurance, and

    'M of banking assets were controlled by families. This number later

    on became a symbol of Pakistan"s grave economic ine+. The industrial licensing policy clearly

    favored :est Pakistani businesspersons over 2ast Pakistanis.

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    Ayub"s economic policies allowed the military to forge an alliance with the

    business community. 4is purpose in doing so was to reduce the power of the

    political classes, both popular politicians and the feudal landowners.

    A i$eo%og1 o" Pa2ista&

    !t was during Ayub years that Pakistan began the process of official mythcreation

    in earnest (serious). A large central bureaucracy was created to manufacture an

    ideology for Pakistan, oe t#at g%ori"ies t#e ar'1 as t#e state6s 2e1 istitutio.

    As the #ritish scholar notes, the ideology of a monolithic 0uslim community was

    erected to counter the Bother" of !ndian nationalism and provincialism within

    Pakistan.

    %tate controlled te*tbooks and electronic media. 2ven today, many young

    Pakistanis do not have access to an objective history of their own history.

    Pa2ista6s Ru%ig E%ite&

    Ayub"s 2stablishment3 senior ranks of military, the civil service, key members of

    the judiciary, and other elites. !t resembles a classic oligarchy, and its roots lie

    deep in the psychology of the #ritish -aj and the social structure of Pakistan"s

    :est :ing. &ther members of the 2stablishment included members of the

    business community, journalists, editors, and media e*pertsC and a few academics

    and members of think tanks and at time some foreign ambassadors.

    T#e .74 Jar a$ t#e Seco$ Partitio&

    The war"s objective had been to put pressure on !ndia to negotiate on 5ashmir,

    and the 5ashmiris themselves were e*pected to rise up en masse. !nstead, !ndia

    escalated the conflict across the international border, the 5ashmiris did not stir,

    and a stalemate ensued. @one of Pakistan"s :estern allies came to its rescue, and

    Pakistan"s newest ally, 1hina, only made sympathetic noises.

    &peration ibraltar3

    rave miscalculationsD foreign policy errorsD diplomatic defeatD 2ast

    Pakistan left unguardedD 8M army for :est Pakistan.

    2conomic growth hampered after the +98 war3

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    !n addition, the breakup of the country merely empowered the most regressive

    and conservative 0uslims in the :est.

    7, the Pakistan

    government was believed to control 9M of the country"s financial and

    nonfinancial assets, with direct authority over critical sectors such as banking,

    insurance, and heavy industry. 2conomic growth dropped to 7M after topping 9M

    under Ayub.

    T#e

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    Te ;ears o" De'ocrac1& =a bro2e a$ 5ea2 $e'ocrac1?

    :hen civilian government did return to Pakistan after ;ia"s death, it was called

    democracy it was really one struggling regime followed by another, with the army

    again looking over the shoulders of its leaders. There were elections in +'',

    +, +/, +>, and , but the actual turnout in each succeeding election

    declined from 8M in +'' to a governmentdeclared /8M (but probably closer to

    9M) in +>, and 8/M in .

    #oth @awa$ and #ena$ir understood that the army had placed certain limits on

    change when it came to relations with !ndia, and both gave the army a free hand

    in the nuclear and missile program. =or ten years, the elected democratic

    governments of Pakistan accommodated and fronted for the army while gingerly

    (cautiously) attempting to e*pand their own authority and power. !n the end,

    neither leader built a political coalition strong enough to contain the army.

    S1ste' Co%%a9se&

    The government"s enthusiastic support for the Afghan Taliban and for !slamic

    militants in !ndian administered 5ashmir eventually backfired when the Taliban

    wound up supporting al Uaeda.

    The 5argil war led to a civilmilitary crises and the return of the army to overt

    political power.

    Pakistan"s nuclear program alienated the Hnited %tates, and its support for !slamic

    radicalism in Afghanistan and at home worried both America and !slamabad"s

    most important friend, 1hina, both of which began to court Pakistan"s major

    strategic rival, !ndia.

    =oreign terrorist combined with Pakistan"s homegrown sectarian terrorists to

    target foreign journalists, 1hristians, minority 0uslim sects, and others.

    .. a$ Pa2ista&

    !slamabad once again became the capital of a Bfrontline" state.

    Pakistan absolutely needed international economic support to remain viable, and

    the west was clearly prepared to crash Pakistan"s economy if the government did

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    not cooperate. %econd, 0usharraf knew that if he did not accede to American

    demands, :ashington had alternatives in %outh Asia.

    6ismantling the past polices

    =ighting others war

    ARM;6S PAKISTAN

    All countries have armies, but here (Pakistan) an army has a country.

    Pakistan is rule by three as3 Allah, America and Army.

    enerations3

    T#e ritis# Geeratio&

    +. %andhurst (H5) trained officer

    . !ndian 0ilitary Academy (!@A) at 6ehra 6un trained officers

    !t is often assumed that the %andhursttrained officers were superior soldiersC

    however, there is substantial evidence to indicate that the !0A officers were

    better

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    of Pakistan. A common view, held by many Pakistani officers through the years,

    and taught at the staff college, was that had !ndian 4indus treated the 0uslims

    fairly to begin with, there would have been no need for a Pakistani state.

    The Pakistan army retained the basic structure of the old !ndian army, and most of

    the new Pakistani officers continued to see their #ritish predecessors as

    professional role models.

    T#e A'erica Geeratio&

    :hen Pakistan joined the #aghdad Pact (later 12@T&) in +88 and developed

    close ties with !ran, Turkey, and the H%, a new generation of officers emerged.

    This generation of army was fully e*posed to the American military. 0any of

    them received training in America or from Americans. The American connection

    led to a complete revision of the army"s structure. Along with American

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    had let Pakistan down. The +98>+ period came to be known as the Bsawdust

    years", during which military honor and professionalism slipped away from the

    Pakistani army. The myth of the army"s invincibility was shaken in +98 and

    shattered in +>+, and its corollary, the corrupt ineptitude of the !ndia army, was

    no longer taken for granted.

    ;ulifi>.

    ;ia generation became embedded in the army, and that it was socially more

    conservative, more !slamic in its orientation. =urthermore, inasmuch as this

    generation"s chief foreign policy e*perience was the +>+ humiliation, it was seen

    as vengeful as well. There is no strong evidence that ;ia"s tenure created a

    distinct group in the army. 4owever, his influence was important in three

    respects3 +. his emphasis on !slam, . his stress on irregular war or lowintensity

    conflict and /. his acceleration of the nuclear program.

    T#e NeHt Geeratio&

    The officers who will occupy top staff and command positions over the ne*tseveral years have a different orientation toward society. 0any come from the

    middle class and joined the army simply to improve their standard of living. The

    army is now considered just another profession

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    Pakistanis %hias and !ran"s influence in Pakistan. The %%P (%ipahi%ahaba Pakistan,

    %unni 0ilitant organi$ation) was founded in %eptember +'8 at Ghang, to counter the rise

    of %hiaism, and apparently had the financial support of the %audi Arabia and !ra with

    indiscriminate gunfire on ordinary citi$ens who were not involved in sectarian activities

    and whose only fault was to be either %unni or %hia. (0ariam Abou ;ahab 3++')

    MADARIS &= se'iaries?

    At the time of Pakistan"s independence there were an estimated 8 0adaris in

    the country. #y +'> it rose to ,'9, producing around /, graduates each year,

    presently there are estimated > to ' 0adaris in Pakistan and between 9, to

    >, students are attending them. 0ostly in +'s, these 0adaris were established by

    ;ia"s regime, as these 0adaris were needed to produce anti%oviet fighters for the

    Afghan :ar and could also be used to counter the %hia influence at home. 4uge

    investment was made, to strengthen various %unni institutionsin particular. (@asr 3

    ) BThe 0adaris received their fundings from larger religopolitical parties or outside

    donors, and instruct their students in accordance with the sectarian beliefs and agenda to

    those donors (%audi Arabia, !ra< and 5uwait). Their focus is less on training Hlema and

    more on producing sectarian activities, less on spiritual matters and more on sectarian

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    hatred. 0any 0adaris provide military training to their students, combining sectarian

    vigilance with a Gihadist outlook, %tudents that come out of these seminaries have few

    skills that would encourage them to follow traditional careers in scholarship and religious

    services, or would allow them to join the mainstream economy. 0any join the ranks of

    e*tremist !slamist parties and sectarian organi$ations".

    AFG>AN JAR3

    (-ashid +93+9+) BThe Afghan war that spanned the decade between +> and

    +' not only flooded Pakistan with weapons and drugs, but also embedded militancy in

    the country"s !slamism. The Afghan war spawned several militant !slamist groups with

    international connectionsC according to one estimate over 8, volunteers from thirty

    countries were trained in Pakistan and fought in Afghanistan". !n addition, the afghan

    scene itself was wrought with sectarian tension as %hias and Persian speaking pro!ranian

    factions vied for power and position with the %audi and American backed 0ujahideen

    groups based in Pakistan" (-oy +). (@asr 3 7) BThe rivalry between these two

    groups and the competition for control of Afghanistan ineluctably spilled over into

    Pakistan. Pakistan"s sectarian conflict, therefore,

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    whole world countries was that Byou are either with us or against us". The Taliban

    government which showed no compliance, and refused to handover B#inIaden number

    one suspect behind the %eptember ++ attacks, had to go. (Gones 3 ) B0usharraf

    reali$ed that once the H% had made up its mind to topple the Taliban there was no point

    for Pakistan continuing to support them". =or eneral 0usharraf it was not an easy task,

    it was not only the overthrow of Taliban government, but also directly confronting

    thousands of !slamic radicals within inside his own country, who took to the streets in all

    the major cities of Pakistan, swearing loyalty to their !slamic brethren in Afghanistan.

    =rom the beginning of his rule, eneral 0usharraf has never made any secret of

    his modernist views. :hile ;ia had used his military might to try to !slami$e Pakistan,

    0usharraf was indicating that he wanted to moderni$e the Pakistani %tate. (Gones

    3) BThe first act he did, in April , he backed a proposal to reform Pakistan"s

    notorious blasphemy law. The !slamic parties, however, strongly opposed the change and

    on 0ay , 0usharraf backed down. 6espite his failure to change the blasphemy law,

    0usharraf continued to e*press opposition to religious e*tremism. !n Gune +, well

    before the attacks on the twin towers in @ew Lork, he gave a keynote speech to leading

    Pakistani !slamic scholars and clerics whom the government had transported to

    !slamabad for the purpose. 4is comments, which struck many of his audience dumb,

    comprised one of the clearest statements of !slamic modernism ever made by a Pakistani

    leader. B4ow does the world look at us" he asked, Bthe world sees us backward and

    constantly going under. !s there any doubt that we have been left behind although we

    claim !slam will carry us forward in every age, every circumstances and every landD

    4ow does the world judge our claim !t looks upon us as terrorists. :e have been killing

    each other. And now we want to spread violence and terror abroad. @aturally the world

    regards us as terrorists. &ur claim of tolerance is phonyDwe never tire of talking about

    the status that !slam accords to women. :e only pay lip service to its teachings. :e do

    not act upon it. This is hypocrisy". (Gones3 +) The Gune speech was a major political

    event in Pakistan. %ince the +8s no Pakistani leader had dared to speak to the clerics in

    this way.

    (Gones 37) B=rom the moment eneral 0usharraf took power, he made it

    clear that he considered those involved in sectarian violence to be terrorists. !n August

    +, he felt strong enough to ban BIashkareGhangvi" and B%ipahe0ohammad"

    Pakistan. The ban marked a significant development, which indicated that 0usharraf was

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    prepared to take some risks in confronting the !slamic radicals. #ut once again there were

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    aircrafts and tens of thousands of troops to the Pakistani border. The prospect of yet

    another military conflict, possibly fullscale war, between two nuclear powers put

    0usharraf under still more pressure. (#ennett Gones 3>)

    The general now reali$ed that he had little choice but to reverse Pakistan"s long

    standing policy of backing the 5ashmir insurgency. &n + Ganuary he delivered a

    landmark speech in which he announced a ban of almost all the most prominent Pakistan

    based militant groups, he said B@o organi$ation will be able to carry out terrorism on the

    prete*t of 5ashmir".

    CONCLUSION&

    !slam has always been e*ploited and politici$es by different leaders in Pakistan.

    The most prominent amongst them was eneral ;iaul4a

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    of events in Afghanistan. &nly one of his predecessors, Ayub 5han, attempted to

    confront the radicals. 4e failed. !t is not yet clear whether 0usharraf will succeed (Gones

    3///)

    DR/ KAISER ENGALIS LECTURE IN DEC *8

    ON

    MAKING SENSE OF PAKISTAN AND ITS ECONOM;

    Lou have heard for the last 8 years at least, stories of economic miracles. :hy is it that

    this miracle has begun to evaporate overnight :hat kind of miracle can it be that is not

    sustainable

    Co%oia% I$ia3 @ow remember +>8'. +97/ was when the first #ritish individual set foot

    on south Asian soil, but +>8' is important as the beginning of formal presence. The first

    #ritish formal presence in what is now Pakistan came '8 years later, '8 years after +>8',

    when the #ritish con

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    there is only one railway line that runs from Peshawar to 5arachi, thereWs no other railway

    line. %o this was the backyard.

    .4*s&%o we begin in +7>, the governments that came from +7> onwards, lets say in

    the +8s, were committed to development. 6evelopment was a major objective, they

    were acutely aware of the lack of industry, the lack of food production, the lack of

    schools, hospitals, electricity, roads, and so on and so forth. They were aware of it.

    The whole effort of the overnment was to provide these economic assets. !n conceptual

    terms Pakistan was a development state. The objective of the state was to promote

    development, thatWs what it was, so it was a development state. :eWll see as we go into

    detail how this development state progressed over the 8Ws, 9Ws and >s.

    Deve%o9'et State versus t#e Natioa% Securit1 State3

    !n +>> Pakistan ceased to be a development state. =rom +>> till today, Pakistan is a

    national security state, where national security is the main objective of the state.

    6evelopment is no longer the main objective of the state and WnationalW is being

    increasingly defined narrowly from the perspective of the military. :hatever the military

    thinks is national security is national security, and to the military, the military is national.

    .7*s& Ayub 5han promoted development, pushed development. :e saw the e*pansion

    of the economic infrastructure on a very large scale. !n fact, out of the eight 8year plans

    that Pakistan created only the second was successful which was in the 9s under Ayub

    5han. !t was successful in the sense that most infrastructure project targets were crossed.

    Pakistan graduated by the end of the +9Ws from a mere producer of consumer

    goods to a producer of intermediate goods. These intermediate goods are those which are

    made for use in agriculture and industry itself, for e*ample fertili$er. :e donWt consume

    fertili$er but it is produced as an input into agriculture. These are called intermediategoods. %o by the end of the +8s Pakistan was producing a lot of consumer goods, and

    by the end of the +9s we were also producing a lot of inputs that went into the

    manufacture of consumer goods. Previously these inputs were imported, now we began to

    manufacture ourselves. %o, there was a marked upwards shift on the development level of

    the country.

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    .8*s& Then came the +>s. The +>s represents the big push. Although the +>s are

    very maligned but completely wrongfully. !n fact, ! consider the +>s to be the golden

    period of PakistanWs economic development and !Wll tell you why. 2conomic development

    has to be measured by how you are creating economic assets. So ecoo'ic $eve%o9'et

    #as to be 'easure$ b1 t#e eHtet o" asset creatio t#at ta2es 9%ace/ It is t#is creatio

    o" assets t#at gives 1ou a "%o5 o" ico'e i t#e 1ears to co'e/

    Asset creation started in the +8s and accelerated in the +9s.

    #ut the +>s saw an even higher push. =or the first time in +>s, capital goods

    industries were introduced, very large projects were introduced, and the basis for future

    growth was created.

    =irst, in the +8s we began to produce consumer goods, letWs say toothpaste. !n

    the +9s we started producing the ingredients for toothpaste and in the +>s we started

    producing the machinery that would produce toothpaste. %o we see the graduation that

    took place of our economic capacity over this period. And this is very significant because

    if you look at data and if you plot industrial production, you will see that there is a line

    which is sloping upwards gently from +>7 to +' and then shoots up and continues

    upwards gently again. :hat happened in +' The steel mill started production. %o

    when you create an economic asset you have an intercept jump in production that

    provides income for years to come.

    T#e 3$eca$e 9erio$ o" t#e .4*s .7*s a$ .8*s is t#e 9erio$ o" t#e

    $eve%o9'et state/ The stateWs objective was to develop the economy, and there was a lot

    of political capital invested into it. The 1olombo plan, the first 8 year plan, creation of

    the planning commission, the second 8 year plan, the third 8 year plan, and so on and so

    forth. Iet us see what happened to the economy3 per capita income rose + foldC food

    production tripledC fibre production went up 7 foldC manufacturing output increased 7

    timesC electricity output increased /8 timesC telephone connections per +, people rose

    + times. Pri'ar1 ero%'et rose 4 ti'es

    @ow of course for those of you who deal with numbers, if you have a low base

    then obviously the percentage will be very large, and this of course is the reason for this

    + fold and 7 fold increases, there were only 9 industries so if another 9 came into being

    there was + percent increase, +M looked very impressive but itWs only 9 more

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    factories. @evertheless having said that you cannot deny that there were absolute

    increases in the economy, and this increase did not take place by itselfC there was very

    conscious effort on the part of the state to push the economy forward.

    The rate of growth of development e*penditure, between +> and +>> was + percent

    per annum. %o every year the budget went up by +M and the 6P growth rate at that

    time was about 8 percentC which means that development e*penditure was 7 times the

    6P growth rateC which means that the surpluses that were being generated by the

    economy was being ploughed back into the economy to maintain the infrastructure and to

    e*pand it. This reflected the commitment of the state to development. This is what the

    development state is. !n +>> the development state sei$ed to e*ist. The national security

    state took over.&f course in the +'s there was also very high growth rate. !t picked up

    evenhigher than the +>s. :e were in the 9 M range, rather than the 8M range. #ut this

    growth happened for largely e*ternal reasons. &ne being the investments that were

    made in the +>Ws, like the construction of the steel mill started in +>7 but it started

    production in +', so obviously growth increased in the 'Ws. %o a %ot o" t#e gro5t#

    t#at 5as ta2ig 9%ace i t#e .:*s 5as because o" t#e ivest'et t#at 5as $oe i

    t#e 8*s/ T#e "ruits 5ere beig 9%uc2e$ o"" t#e trees t#at 5ere 9%ate$ i t#e .8*s/

    %econdly, there was inflow of remittances from the 0iddle 2ast. The oil shock

    took place in +>/. That doesnWt mean that PakistanWs remittance income started in +>/,

    because it took %audi Arabia and the other gulf countries almost 78 years to put their

    institutional framework for starting development. The development process in %audi

    Arabia and the rest of the ulf %tates started towards the end of the +>s. And the first

    remittance flow into Pakistan started coming in +>' and peaked in +'. %o

    +'s also benefited from the flow of remittances, very large remittances coming in.

    Thirdly, there was foreign assistance coming in because of the Afghan :ar. They

    were historic because never before in PakistanWs history had there been that level of

    foreign assistance coming in.

    And fourth, the government in +'s was borrowing heavily from banks and

    printing money. And of course because o" t#e A"g#a Jar a$ t#e "avourab%e vie5

    A'erica #a$ o" Pa2ista t#e IMF $i$ ot co'9%ai/ Ot#er5ise IMF a%5a1ss#outs

    5#e 1ou 9rit 'oe1 but t#e1 5eret co'9%aiig t#e/

    9+

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    Iarge debts were created, to the e*tent that if we calculate debtto6P ratio, namely

    what percentage of your national income is indebted. I .88 t#e $ebt GDP ratio5as

    ),- or ),- o" our GDP or atioa% ico'e 5as i$ebte$/ I .:: it #a$ju'9e$

    to ,:- t#is 5as t#e eHtet o" i$ebte$ess t#at t#e s, in the +'Ws it dropped to

    .>M. :hich means that the surpluses that were being generated in the economy because

    of the output that came out of investment in the +>s, because of the steel mill, because

    of remittances, because of foreign aid, even by printing money or loans V was not being

    ploughed back into the economy. :e were not reinvesting.

    @either of the two was happening in the +'s. :e had a mere .>M growth in

    development e*penditure. This .>M growth rate of e*penditure was half the average

    6P growth rateC whereas, in the +>s, the rate of growth of development

    e*penditure was 8 times the average 6P growth rate. 4ere it was half the 6P growth

    rate. So 5#ere 5as t#e 'oe1 goig 0oney was being generated, the economy was

    booming, but where was the money going T#e 'oe1 5as goig ito$e"ece/ Against

    average 9M 6P growth rate, defence e*penditure during the +'s was going up by M.

    %o unlike in the first phase +8s, +9s, and +>s where the economic surplus that

    was generated was ploughed back into e*panding and strengthening the economy, in the

    +'Ws the economic surplus that was generated was ploughed into the militaryWs

    e*pansion rather than the economyWs e*pansion.

    .*s &

    The military was in charge of Afghanistan and they gave money to the Taliban to buy

    arms, they paid the Taliban government salary but they did not do anything that would

    help PakistanWs economy. #ecause their entire focus was not development at allC their

    focus was to support the Taliban because they were anti!ndia, and because they provided

    a socalled +strategic de!th". And as longas they provide strategic depth, and as long as

    they donWt provide the !ndians anyfoothold, thatWs fine with us. %o the entire mindset was

    military. !t was all aboutmilitary strategic depths and military objectivesC development

    didnWt figure at all.2ven when they were making public statements that this was an

    opportunity, they did not take it up. They were not listening because this was the national

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    security state to them, national security issues, and as ! said at the outset, national security

    is increasingly narrowly defined. 0ilitaryWs interest is now national interest

    %o what happened since the +s :hen you donWt invest, everything begins to

    creakC the infrastructure began to crack. And in the +s the growth rate began to

    decelerate. The governments in the +s also could not put money into investment and

    the rehabilitation of infrastructure because the debts that were incurred in the

    +'s matured in the +s. And bot# ea!irs a$ Na5a! S#ari"s gover'ets #a$

    o "isca% s9ace as t#e1 #a$ to re9a1

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    up to '.M. #ut it was onelegged development, development that was standing on one

    leg and shaky.

    :hat is 6P 6P is the sum of value added. Falue added comes from four sources

    all the wages that are earned by employees and workers, all the rent that is earned by

    property owners, all the interest that is earned by owners of capital and all the profit that

    is earned by businessmen. Lou add these four things and that becomes national income

    &ther than wages, all the other three rent, profit and interest they are usually earned

    by property owners. %o, 6P will go up if only wages go up or if only profits go up.

    Jagecetre$ GDP gro5t# 'eas t#e icrease i atioa%ico'e is goig to 5age

    earers 9ro"itcetre$ GDP gro5t# 'eas t#e icreasei atioa% ico'e is goig

    to 9ro9ert1 o5ers/

    Iet us now e*amine 6P3 it grew at '.7M, but banking sector 6P grew at /M. !f in

    this group you are all years old, and ! am 8 years old, the average age will be well

    above . Lou remove me and your average age drops to . %o, one sector growing at

    /M pulled up the average 6P growth rate. #ut that was not the only sector that pulled

    up the average 6P growth rate. #ecause of consumer banking you could also buy cars,

    suddenly everybody was buying carsC we can see the traffic on the road because of that.

    The automobile industry output also went up. The automobile industry for / years

    running was growing at 778M per annumC that shot up the large scalemanufacturing

    sector from >M to +>M. @ow of course 6P is looking very good, but itWs looking good

    because consumer financing allows banks to make e*orbitant profits. #anks are giving

    money for cars, so automobile firms are making e*orbitant profits. #ut what will happen

    if you remove consumer financing @obody will buy cars, so the automobile growth rate

    drops. #anks are not making the same profit, so the banking sector growth rate dropsC in

    turn the 6P growth rate drops. So t#e1 create$ a bubb%e 5#ic# 5as sta$igo

    ba2 cre$it/ ;ou re'ove ba2 cre$it a$ ever1t#ig e%se co%%a9ses . Then the other

    aspect of this is that by bank credit you only increase the consumption e*penditure. #ank

    credit was not going into investment, bank credit was not going into setting up factories,

    and bank credit was not going into promoting e*ports.

    That is why if you look at another few ratios that we have, one is a ta* 6P ratio that out

    of your total national income what is the proportion of ta* collected The total ta*

    collection in Pakistan is e

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    i" t#e ecoo'1 is gro5ig so "ast 5#1 aret taHes icreasig Our eH9ort GDP ratio

    is costat/ I "act it #as s%ig#t%1 $ec%ie$/ I" t#e ecoo'1 is $oig so 5e%% 5#1 aret

    5e eH9ortig 'ore ecause t#e 5#o%e stress o" t#e gro5t# 5as cosu'9tio

    rat#er t#a ivest'et or eH9asio o" t#e ecoo'ici"rastructure a$ t#e "ai%ure

    to t#i2 o" i"rastructure/ !magine, %haukat A$i$ every week would say so many

    refrigerators have been soldX so many air conditioners have been sold and so on. 4e

    completely forgot that fridges, air conditioners and deep free$ers work on electricity.

    %ince + till mid>, the government did not put in investment to produce even one

    mw of power. :hen this huge crisis blew up they started searching all over the world for

    thermal power plants. And 5#e t#egover'et i t#e .*s t#e Peo9%es Part1

    gover'et 'a$e agree'ets 5it#"oreig 9o5er 9ro$ucers to 9rovi$e 9o5er at 7

    cets 9er uit t#ere 5as a #uea$ cr1/ ut o5 t#e1 #ave 'a$e agree'ets "or ..

    cets a uit/ ut 5e #ave oc#oice rig#t o5 5e #ave a 9o5er s#ortage a$ just 5e

    #ave to 9a1 5#atever9rice t#e1re as2ig "or ot#er5ise t#ere 5i%% be o 9o5er/

    These are all e*amples of a mindset of a state that is not thinking development. !f

    they were thinking development they wouldnWt make these blunders. They would have

    seen that if production is going up, then credit should go into supporting that production.

    J#at cosu'er "iacig #as $oe is t#at it #as icrease$ our i'9ort bi%%/ 1ars are

    imported, they are assembled here. A1s are imported but only their housing is built over

    here. Je are tec#o%ogica%%1 a ver1 $e"iciet coutr1/ :e donWt know how to make

    rickshaw or ta*i metersC we donWt know how to produce simple office e

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    %haukat A$i$. :hen you create something that has no basis, it cannot lastC we did not

    create economic assets and assets created in the +9s and +>s are deteriorating.

    E$ig Re'ar2s&

    ! think this is a great country and let me make this final statement. ! am saying this with

    full authority and responsibility. Pakistan is a resourcerich country. :e can become a

    developed country like Portugal, the least developed 2uropean country. :e can become a

    country like Portugal in years. :e can have $ero poverty, $ero unemployment and

    $ero illiteracy. !lliteracy we can wipe out in 8 years, it is possible because we are not an

    overpopulated country. :e talk about a high population growth rate but we are not an

    overpopulated country like !ndia or 1hina or #angladesh. !ndia, given its present socio

    economic structure, cannot abolish its poverty even in 8 years. !ndia will become a big

    economic power but will not be able to abolish poverty.

    :e can eradicate poverty in years, we can achieve effective literacy in 8 years. All

    these are doable things. :e can become a strong economic power in this area. :e can

    become a respectable country. :e can actually give aid to street children of #ombay.

    All this is possible. #ut we have to first become a developed state ourselves.

    Today, we are like a factory most of whose revenue is spent on chowkidars and there is

    no money left to buy raw materials or spare parts. That factory will close down. Pakistan

    is like that factory. :e have to change it. Lou have to change it.

    99

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    Pa2ista6s Future& =4ope and?or =rustration)

    !s Pakistan at a critical juncture

    !s Pakistan a failed state

    So'e "uture scearios&

    A straightline projection of the present system

    The emergence of a moderate, democratic state

    The rise of authoritarianism

    The rise of an !slamist state

    Pakistan"s possible breakup

    Pakistan after a major war with !ndia

    The present system is likely to continu