Panel MembersPatrons:Maurice F. StrongNafis Sadik

Coordinators:Wolfgang LutzPopulation ProjectInternational Institute for Applied Systems AnalysisInstitute for DemographyAustrian Academy of SciencesAustria

Mahendra ShahLand-Use and Land-Cover Change ProjectInternational Institute for Applied Systems AnalysisAustria

Ex Officio:Hans J.A. van GinkelUnited Nations Under-Secretary-GeneralUnited Nations UniversityJapan

Jacques VallinInternational Union for the Scientific Study of PopulationInstitut National d’Etudes DémographiquesFrance

Arne JernelövInternational Institute for Applied Systems AnalysisAustria

Members:Alaka M. BasuHarvard Center for Population and Development StudiesHarvard UniversityUSA

Richard E. BilsborrowCarolina Population CenterUniversity of North Carolina—Chapel HillUSA

John BongaartsResearch DivisionThe Population CouncilUSA

Partha DasGuptaFaculty of EconomicsCambridge UniversityUK

Barbara EntwisleDept. of SociologyUniversity of North Carolina—Chapel HillUSA

Günther FischerLand-Use and Land-Cover Change ProjectInternational Institute for Applied Systems AnalysisAustria

Brigida GarciaEl Colegio De MexicoMexico

Daniel J. HoganCidade Universitaria “Zeferino Vaz” CampinasBrazil

Zhenghua JiangPeople’s Congress of ChinaPeople’s Republic of China

Robert W. KatesIndependent ScholarUSA

Sanjaya LallQueen Elizabeth HouseOxford UniversityUK

Landis MacKellarSocial Security Reform ProjectInternational Institute for Applied Systems AnalysisAustria

P.K. Makinwa-AdebusoyeNigeria Institute of Social and Economic ResearchNigeria

Anthony J. McMichaelNational Centre for Epidemiology & Population HealthThe Australian National UniversityAustralia

Vinod MishraEast-West CenterUniversity of HawaiiUSA

Norman MyersConsultant in Environment & DevelopmentOxford UniversityUK

Nebojsa NakicenovicTransitions to New Technologies ProjectInternational Institute for Applied Systems AnalysisAustria

Sten NilssonForestry ProjectInternational Institute for Applied Systems AnalysisAustria

Brian C. O’NeillPopulation ProjectInternational Institute for Applied Systems AnalysisAustria

Peng XizheInstitute of Population ResearchFudan UniversityPeople’s Republic of China

Harriet B. PresserDept. of SociologyUniversity of Maryland—College ParkUSA

Warren SandersonDepts. of Economics and HistoryState University of New York—Stony BrookUSA

Gita SenIndian Institute of ManagementIndia

Barbara TorreyPopulation Reference BureauUSA

Dirk van de KaaNetherlands

Meryl WilliamsICLARM—The World Fish CenterMalaysia

Brenda YeohAsian MetaCentre for Population & Sustainable Development AnalysisCentre for Advanced StudiesFaculty of Arts & Social SciencesNational University of SingaporeSingapore

Huda ZuraykFaculty of Health SciencesAmerican University of BeirutLebanon

Cover based on a design by Anka James

DTP by Marie Tweed

Additional research by Isolde Prommer andKoko Warner

Edited by Brian O’Neill

Printed by Remaprint, Vienna

In 2001 IIASA, the IUSSP (International Union for the Scientific Study of Population), and the UNU (United Nations University)started a joint initiative to prepare a comprehensive scientific assessment of the role of population in sustainable developmentstrategies, with the aim of producing a science-based policy statement as input to the 2002 Johannesburg World Summit onSustainable Development. The Global Science Panel comprises over 30 distinguished scientists from various disciplines andcomes under the joint patronage of Maurice Strong and Nafis Sadik. It is coordinated by Wolfgang Lutz and Mahendra Shah,and receives financial support from the UNFPA (United Nations Population Fund), the government of Austria, and the MacArthurFoundation. Initial discussions were held at a meeting at NIDI (Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute) and atGeneral Conferences organized by the IUSSP and IHDP (International Human Dimensions of Global Environmental ChangeProgram). Drafts were also discussed at two cyber seminars organized by the IUSSP/IHDP Population Environment ResearchNetwork (PERN). Full documentation of these seminars can be found at www.populationenvironmentresearch.org.

1

The human population matters forsustainable development in two crit-ical ways. First, it is an agent ofchange, inducing many of the envi-ronmental, economic, and socialchanges in the world that give riseto our concern about the sustain-ability of our current developmentpaths. Second, the human popula-tion and its living conditions are theultimate objects of development,with long-term human health, well-being, and survival serving as cri-teria for judging whether develop-ment is sustainable or not. It is thehuman population and its individualmembers that ultimately will sufferthe consequences of unsustainablepaths of development.

For these reasons, the systemic in-tegration of population in sustainabledevelopment is essential if we areto meet the needs of present gener-ations without sacrificing the liveli-hoods of future generations. Thescientific, knowledge-based assess-ment needed for such integrationrequires an interdisciplinary analy-sis of the interrelationships of popu-lation and society, environment andnatural resources, and economicsand governance institutions.

Ten years ago at the Earth Summitin Rio de Janeiro, the world commu-nity of nations adopted and made acommitment to Agenda 21, a com-mon framework for action towardsustainable development. Eradicat-ing poverty and ensuring access tobasic human needs such as food,water, energy, health care and ser-vices, safe shelter and security, and

education and knowledge empower-ment are fundamental, both now andin the future, to achieving sustain-able development. These issueshave been on the international polit-ical and development agenda forover three decades. At conferenceafter conference bringing togetherpoliticians and decision makers,goals have been set to improve hu-man well-being and conserve natureand the environment. The dawn ofthe 21st century is an era of unprec-edented economic growth and tech-nological change, and yet it is a timewhen over one-fifth of humanity ex-ists in demoralizing poverty andsuffering.

In September 2000, political leadersfrom around the world took an un-precedented step toward decidingtime-bound target dates for a globalpartnership to resolve the major is-sues of our time, including povertyand hunger, the lack of universalaccess to primary education, gen-der inequality, child mortality, poormaternal health, diseases includingHIV/AIDS and malaria, and unsus-tainable use of natural resourcesand environmental degradation.Turning these goals into concreteactions is the central challenge ofachieving sustainable developmentin the 21st century and beyond.

This report presents the results of ajoint initiative by the InternationalInstitute for Applied Systems Analy-sis (IIASA), the International Unionfor the Scientific Study of Population(IUSSP), and the United NationsUniversity (UNU). This initiative, the

Introduction

Global Science Panel, has broughttogether some 30 distinguished sci-entists from around the world work-ing in various disciplines to preparea comprehensive scientific assess-ment of the role of population insustainable development, in theform of a science-based policystatement as input to the 2002Johannesburg World Summit onSustainable Development.

This report also highlights the deci-sions made and goals set at variousinternational conferences over thepast three decades and presents agraphical assessment of the pro-gress, or lack thereof, in selectedaspects of the major issues of popu-lation, education, health, poverty, andhunger that are at the core of achiev-ing sustainable development. Thisanalysis highlights the need to movefrom rhetoric and political goals to realaction for sustainable development—an imperative at the JohannesburgWorld Summit on Sustainable Devel-opment in August 2002.

Wolfgang LutzMahendra Shah

GSP Coordinators

Mahendra Shah and Wolfgang Lutz briefingthe WSSD PrepCom III Event.

2

If we do not put the human popu-lation at the core of the sustainabledevelopment agenda, our efforts toimprove human well-being and pre-serve the quality of the environ-ment will fail. The JohannesburgSummit must heed the first princi-ple of the 1992 Rio Declaration—that “human beings are at thecentre of concern for sustainabledevelopment”—by taking full ac-count of how population and soci-ety interact with the naturalenvironment.

Sustainable development aims atimproving human well-being, partic-ularly by alleviating poverty, increas-ing gender equality, and improvinghealth, human resources, and stew-ardship of the natural environment.Because demographic factors areclosely linked to these goals, strate-gies that consider population havea better chance of success.

The International Conference onPopulation and Development inCairo in 1994 recognized that popu-lation policy should be oriented to-ward improving social conditions andexpanding choices for individuals.The key recognition was that focus-ing on people—their rights, capabil-

ities, and opportunities—would havemultiple benefits for individuals, forsociety, and for their sustainable re-lationship with the environment.

Hence in Johannesburg, consider-ation of sustainable developmentpolicies must include populationgrowth and distribution, mobility, dif-ferential vulnerability, and the em-powerment of the people, especiallywomen.

A demographically diverseworld

We live in a world of unprecedenteddemographic change. Global popu-lation increased by 2 billion duringthe last quarter of the 20th century,reaching 6 billion in 2000. Despitedeclining fertility rates, population isexpected to increase by another 2billion during the first decades of the21st century. Nearly all of this growthwill occur in developing countriesand will be concentrated among thepoorest communities and in urbanareas.

We also live in a world of unprece-dented demographic diversity. Tradi-tional demographic groupings ofcountries are breaking down. Overthe next 25 years increases in pop-ulation in sub-Saharan Africa, SouthAsia, and the Middle East are ex-pected to be larger than in the pastquarter century, and growth in NorthAmerica will be substantial as well.In contrast, in most European coun-tries and in East Asia, populationgrowth has slowed or stopped, andrapid population aging has becomea serious concern. Mortality alsovaries widely across regions, withthe burden of infectious disease,including HIV/AIDS, being particu-

Science policy statement of the Global Science Panel

Population in Sustainable Development

larly heavy in Africa. In addition, lev-els of mobility, urbanization, and ed-ucation differ substantially amongand within regions, affecting eco-nomic and health outlooks.

This diversity presents different chal-lenges requiring differentiated re-sponses. The most urgent of theseoccur where rapid populationgrowth, high levels of poverty, andenvironmental degradation coincide.

Population matters todevelopment andenvironment

Research has shown that changesin population growth, age structure,and spatial distribution interactclosely with the environment andwith development. Rapid populationgrowth has exacerbated freshwaterdepletion, climate change, biodiver-sity loss, depletion of fisheries andother coastal resources, and degra-dation of agricultural lands. Fertilitydecline in high-fertility countries, byslowing population growth, canmake many environmental problemseasier to solve. It can also have im-portant economic benefits by reduc-ing the number of children relativeto the working-age population, andcreating a unique opportunity to in-crease investments in health, edu-cation, infrastructure, and environ-mental protection.

In high-income countries, the envi-ronmental impact of populationgrowth and distribution must be con-sidered jointly with high consump-tion rates. Even in countries wherelittle growth is envisioned, unsustain-able patterns of consumption haveglobal implications for the environ-ment and human well-being, and

3

must be addressed with appropriatepolicies.

Before the end of this decade, themajority of the world’s population willlive in urban areas. Urbanization canimprove people’s access to educa-tion, health, and other services. Butit also creates environmental healthhazards, such as water and air pol-lution, and by increasing consump-tion levels, it can have environmentalimpacts in distant rural areas as well.

The mobility and spatial distributionof populations, especially at localand regional scales, are a signifi-cant determinant of sustainability.Where the population lives andworks relative to the location of nat-ural resources affects environmen-tal quality. The expansion of theagricultural frontier and other humanactivity is encroaching on fragile eco-systems in many parts of the world.

Policy must account fordifferential vulnerabilitywithin populations

Deteriorating environmental condi-tions and extreme events do not af-fect all countries, populations, orhouseholds in the same way. Evenwithin a household, the effects maydiffer by age and gender. Consider-ation of vulnerability must thereforefocus not only on countries but alsoon the most vulnerable segments ofthe population within countries.

Many factors contribute to vulnera-bility, including poverty, poor health,low levels of education, gender in-equality, lack of access to resourcesand services, and unfavorable geo-graphic location. Populations thatare socially disadvantaged or lackpolitical voice are also at greaterrisk. Particularly vulnerable popula-tions include the poorest, least em-powered segments, especiallywomen and children. Vulnerablepopulations have limited capacity toprotect themselves from currentand future environmental hazards,such as polluted air and water andcatastrophes, and the adverseconsequences of large-scale envi-ronmental change, such as landdegradation, biodiversity loss, andclimate change.

Vulnerability can be reduced by pro-moting empowerment, investing inhuman resources, and fosteringparticipation in public affairs anddecision-making.

Empowerment througheducation and reproductivehealth benefits people andthe environment

Two policies have multiple benefitsfor individual welfare, for social andeconomic development, and for theenvironment. One is investment involuntary family planning and repro-ductive health programs. Since re-search has shown that many womenin high-fertility countries have morechildren than they actually want,these programs allow couples tohave the number of children theydesire, thus reducing unwantedchildbearing and lowering fertilityrates. Lower fertility leads to slowerpopulation growth, allowing moretime for coping with the adverse ef-fects of that growth, and easingstress on the environment.

The other top policy prior ity iseducation. Education enhances

individual choice, fosters women’sempowerment, and improves gen-der equality. Better-educated peopleare in better health, and often con-tribute to greater environmentalawareness. The increased economicproductivity and technological ad-vance that education induces canlead to less pollution-intensive pro-duction. It may also reduce vulnera-bility to environmental change byfacilitating access to information andthe means to protect oneself. Fur-thermore, in countries with rapidpopulation growth, the fertility-depressing effect of education con-tributes to reducing the scale ofhuman impact on the environment.

These two policies—education andreproductive health programs—arein high demand by individuals almostuniversally because their multiplebenefits are clear. They also em-power individuals to make informedchoices. Efforts to achieve sustain-able development should give themthe highest priority.

Strengtheninginterdisciplinary trainingand research

To facilitate the joint consideration ofpopulation, development, and envi-ronment, more interdisciplinary re-search and education addressingthese topics is necessary at all lev-els. The different disciplines shouldalso conduct their studies in waysthat make the results mutually ac-cessible. Training about the natureof these interactions is a priority is-sue for the policy-making communi-ty, media, and scientists.

Note: This statement on Population in SustainableDevelopment reflects the views of the GlobalScience Panel and does not necessarily reflectthose of the institutions that have co-sponsored theprocess leading to this statement.

For more information about theGlobal Science Panel, see

www.iiasa.ac.at/gsp/

4

In March 2002, members of theGlobal Science Panel on Popu-lation and Environment alongwith additional outside expertsmet at the International Institutefor Applied Systems Analysis inAustria to finalize the Statementon Population in SustainableDevelopment. Discussions tookinto consideration feedback froma series of international meet-ings and online seminars heldover the previous months.

Papers were presented on arange of topics to inform the pro-cess, including case studies ofpopulation–environment interac-tions in specific contexts. High-lights from those papers aresummarized here, focusing oneducation, vulnerability and theurban poor, and migration andland use.

Education

Education is valued for its own sakeas an important part of becoming acomplete person and a full memberof society. Extensive research at-tests to the importance of educationto health, fertility, poverty reduction,and other aspects of well-being, aswell as to economic growth at thenational level.

Education improves health in manyways:

• Better nutritional knowledge

• Greater likelihood of demandingand using health services

• Better knowledge of disease trans-mission prevention

• Female education makes mothersmore effective health care provid-ers for their children

Education also tends to lead to lowerfertility:

• Changes in aspirations and newopportunities for work outside thehome

• Better understanding of contra-ceptive use

• Delay in marriage, decline in num-ber of children desired

• More effective planning of child-bearing

Primary education has been foundto be especially important: it pro-vides basic abilities and is the entrypoint to higher levels of education.Furthermore, it makes importantcontributions to economic growth,particularly in agriculture.

However, secondary and tertiaryeducation are now seen to be ofgrowing importance in some coun-tries because of skill shortages andthe lack of administrative/manage-ment capacity. It is not low-cost la-bor but low-cost skilled labor thatgives the edge in much of interna-tional competitiveness today.

Global Science Panel Meeting Highlights

Fertility by education in selected countries

Education is an important goal in its own right. Additionally, since womenwith higher levels of education tend to have fewer children, improvingeducation will lead to lower fertility.

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

Niger

Guatemala

Madagascar

Tanzania Togo

Nicaragua

MozambiqueBrazil Egypt

Tota

l fer

tility

rate

Higher education

No educationPrimary educationSecondary education

Source: IIASA

5

Vulnerability and the urbanpoor

Social and economic conditionspredispose some individuals orgroups to greater susceptibility toenvironmental hazards. The urbanpoor are particularly vulnerable toa number of stresses that contrib-ute to poor health, including envi-ronmental hazards arising frompoor air and water quality. Cities canbe among the most health threat-ening of all human environments asdisease-causing agents and dis-ease vectors multiply, as the largeconcentration of people living inclose proximity to one another in-creases the risk of disease trans-mission, and as health caresystems become unable to respondrapidly and effectively. Poverty con-tributes to vulnerability in manyways:

• Riskier and more hazardous jobs

• Lower-quality housing that offerslittle protection against environ-mental hazards

• Unfavorable locations of homes

• Lack of provision of public services

• Lack of assets to cope with illnessor injury

The urban poor experience a widevariety of health problems, which arenot only a burden themselves but arealso a major contributor to poverty:

• Close to half the urban populationin developing countries suffersfrom one or more of the main dis-eases associated with inadequateprovision of water and sanitation,including insect-borne diseasessuch as malaria, dengue fever, orfilariasis.

• Airborne infections are aided bythe overcrowding and inadequateventilation that is common in hous-ing used by low-income groups.

• Indoor air pollution from open firesor inefficient stoves, often consid-ered a rural issue, is known to be aserious problem in particular cities.

Public policy has successfullyaddressed such problems in somecases. In Porto Alegre, Brazil, vir-tually the entire population haspiped water and regular garbagecollection, and most have goodprovision for sanitation. The city’sinhabitants have an average life ex-pectancy of 74 years; infant mor-tality rates are below 20 per 1000live births. However, there are hun-dreds of urban centers where onlya small proportion of the popula-tion has piped water and adequateprovision for sanitation, and wherethe urban authorities have very lit-tle capacity to address any envi-ronmental problems. For example,in Lagos, Nigeria, most residentssurvive under conditions of ex-treme poverty, with about 75 per-cent of households located inslums or in substandard housing.

The combination of the fast paceof urbanization and increasingpoverty is putting enormous pres-sure on available physical and so-cial infrastructure and publ icservices, and straining the capac-ity of local and state governmentsto provide even the most basic ser-vices such as water, electricity,housing, urban transport, and sew-erage. About 1 in 30 householdsin Lagos has refuse-disposal facil-ities, about 1 in 10 has toilet facili-ties, and 1 in 8 has piped water.Lagos is unable to manage an effi-cient solid-waste system, and anacute housing shortage has forcedpoor people to move to unplannedshanties and blighted areas on theurban periphery and along water-fronts.

Observed versus wanted fertility in selected countries

Women in many countries have more children than they desire. Investmentsin voluntary family planning and reproductive health programs can help cou-ples achieve their childbearing goals and will also lead to lower fertility.

Observed and wanted fertility, early 1990s

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

Camero

onGha

naKe

nya

Nigeria

Rwan

da

Sene

gal

Zimba

bweEg

ypt

Jorda

n

Morocco

Turke

y

Bang

ladesh

Indon

esia

Pakis

tan

Philip

pines

Bolivi

a

Colombia

Dom. R

epub

lic

Parag

uay

Peru

Birth

s per

wom

an

Source: Bankole and Westoff, 1995

Observed fertility

Wanted fertility

6

Migration and land use inEcuador

The Amazon lowlands in Ecuador,along with those east of the Andesin southern Colombia and Peru, areone of the world’s 11 “hot spots” ofhigh biodiversity. Much of this ex-traordinary region in Ecuador is suf-fering rapid deforestation followingthe large influx of people—mainlyfrom low-income, land-scarce ruralareas—after it was opened up byroads built by petroleum companiesto lay pipelines and extract oil. Al-most half the region’s population wasborn elsewhere. As a result of thishigh migration combined with highfertility, the population of the regionhas grown at over double the nation-al rate during the past few decades.

Research confirms that populationgrowth in the region is an importantcontributor to deforestation. How-ever, it also demonstrates that thestory is not a simple one. Many oth-er factors matter as well:

• Land tenure is potentially impor-tant, since more secure titles tendto lead to more sustainable formsof land use, which may mean less

The complete text of the back-ground papers is available online

at http://www.iiasa.ac.at/gsp.

land clearing. Having a title is alsorelated to access to credit, sincecredit usually requires collateral.Therefore, national policies that af-fect the size and tenure status ofplots and the provision of creditcan impact land use.

• Technical assistance affects landclearing and land use but has beendrastically cut over the past de-cade, leading to a decline in, forexample, the promotion of newseed varieties, which can affectcrop choice and land clearing.

• Access to markets is also a key fac-tor in land use. Road infrastructurehas improved, cutting the averagewalking distance from the farm tothe road by half over the past de-cade and reducing the distance tothe nearest markets. These chang-es facilitate travel to markets for sell-ing crops and purchasing food, andhave a strong effect on land clear-

ing, land use, agricultural produc-tion, and farm incomes.

• The background of the head of thehousehold may affect land use, in-cluding place of origin and previ-ous agricultural experience.

• The size of the plot is fundamental,larger plots being harder to clear.

• Finally, natural resource endow-ments affect land use. Soil qualityvaries widely in the area, as doestopography. Flatter land and bet-ter soils are expected to lead tomore intensive land use.

These factors interact in ways thatmake the causes of deforestation inEcuador different from those in manyother Latin American countries,where forest loss often results froma switch from relatively intensiveforms of land uses such as crops toextensive forms of land use such ascattle raising. In the Amazon regionof Ecuador, cattle raising has de-clined over time, apparently owingto the process of plot fragmentationthat has eventually made manyfarms too small to support such land-intensive activity. Heads of house-holds subdivide their plots forvarious reasons, including sellingportions for cash, giving away partas an early inheritance for children,lending parcels to recently in-migrated family members looking forland, and renting out parcels to seekadditional income through rent. Thechange in plot size—driven in partby population growth—has beenassociated with a change in laborpatterns. Whereas initially house-holds with mainly large plots hireoutside labor, after subdivision manyhouseholds with smaller plots workoff the farm, a shift in activity thataffects overall rates of forest loss.

Thus, although the overall patternof increasing cultivated area at theexpense of forest cover is drivenin par t by population growth,

7

changes in land use are driven bya complex mix of factors relatedto individuals, households, institu-tions, and policies. A number ofpolicy responses are possible.There is a large unmet demand for

family planning in the Amazonamong settler women; meetingthis need would result in lowerfertility. Levels of education areimproving but are still low. Inaddition, policies could be di-

quently, massive efforts in the sec-ondary education of women weremade, and already by the 1970smore girls than boys had passedthe matriculation examinations inFinland. Although there have beenother economic and political rea-sons for the recent impressive per-formance of the Finnish economy,there is little doubt that these strongearly investments in human capitalformation and the status of womenwere among the decisive factors.

The Indian Ocean island of Mauri-tius started its demographic tran-sition almost a century later thanFinland. Up to the 1940s, birth anddeath rates on Mauritius were veryhigh and resembled the patterntypical of pre-modern societies,with high annual fluctuations. Afterthe end of World War II, however,mortality started a precipitous de-cline owing to the eradication ofmalaria and the spread of modernmedicine, with antibiotics playinga major role. Birth rates continuedto stay at a high level, or even in-creased, owing to the better healthstatus of women. Hence, duringthe 1950s Mauritius experiencedpopulation growth rates of morethan 3 percent per year and wasfrequently used as a textbook caseof an island stuck in the vicious cir-cle of poverty and high populationgrowth, each assumed to reinforcethe other. But during the 1960s thegovernment started a strong butstrictly voluntary family planningprogram in which even the influen-tial Roman Catholic Church coop-

During the 19th century, Finland wasone of the poorest regions in Europe.It had no natural resources exceptfor wood, which grew more slowlythan farther south on the continent.During the late 1860s, Finland ex-perienced a major famine that killedmore than 10 percent of the totalpopulation and more than half of allinfants. This was probably the lastmajor “natural” famine in Europe.Unusually cold weather conditionshad resulted in almost completecrop failure and vulnerability to dis-eases. Other northern Europeancountries managed to cope betterwith these weather conditions thandid Finland.

Today, Finland is one of the world’sleading industrialized countriesand, according to a recent UnitedNations study, it has the world’smost competitive economy. Whatcaused it to change from being oneof Europe’s most backward regionsto a model of efficiency, competi-tiveness, and human well-being?One thing that distinguishes Finlandfrom many other European coun-tries is that it was one of the firstcountries in the world to reach uni-versal literacy of its population. Thisis mostly due to the efforts of theLutheran Church of Finland, whichput a lot of emphasis on improvingthe literacy skills of the rural popu-lation and at some stage evenmade it impossible for young peo-ple to marry unless they could read.After New Zealand, Finland was thesecond country in the world to grantwomen the right to vote. Subse-

erated with the government byadvocating “natural” contraceptivemethods together with the need forsmaller families. From 1963 to1973, fertility rates on Mauritiusdeclined from more than sixchildren per woman to about three,one of the world’s most rapidnational fertility declines. Why werethese family planning efforts onMauritius so successful while sim-ilar effor ts in other parts of theworld showed little success duringthat time? Again, the answer canbe found in the almost universal lit-eracy of young women in Mauri-tius, a result of early investmentsin human capital formation evenunder conditions of extreme pov-erty. Already by 1962, more than80 percent of all young womencould read and write, a factor thatboth brought down desired familysize and increased access to fam-ily planning. Subsequently, Mauri-tius experienced something thatlater was called the “demographicbonus” in Southeast Asia andKorea; namely, a decline in youthdependency with still very low oldage dependency, resulting in aperiod of economic growth and in-vestment in infrastructures. InMauritius the young and educatedwomen postponing their childbirthsclearly were a major factor in facil-itating the rapid expansion of thetextile industry. Today, the formertextbook example of a countrystuck in poverty is leading theAfrican region in terms of quality-of-life indicators and is already beingcompared to the Asian tigers.

Early investment in human capital formation and the status of women pays:

The success stories of Finland and Mauritius

rected at the root causes of migra-tion to the Amazon, including ruralpoverty, extreme inequality of landdistribution, and, therefore, lack ofaccess to land for the vast majorityof the rural population.

8

Population Size and Structure

Key determinants of populationsize and structure are fertility, lifeexpectancy, and migration. In theconferences from the 1970s tothe late 1990s, the center of con-cern shifted from populationgrowth as a threat to environmen-tal and socioeconomic develop-ment to poverty and social andgender inequality between andwithin nations.

United Nations World Population Conference (Bucharest, 1974)

The World Population Plan of Action deemed as important “The interrelations ofpopulation trends and conditions and other social and economic variables, inparticular the availability of human resources, food and natural resources, the

quality of the environment, the need for health, education, employment, welfare,housing and other social services and amenities, promotion of human rights, the

enhancement of the status of women, the need for social security, political stability,discrimination and political freedom...”

International Conference on Population (Mexico, 1984)

“Population trends must be co-ordinated with trends of economic and social development.”

Of “primary concern” are the following challenges and problems: “The annualincrements in population, which are projected to grow larger throughout the

decade;…The rate of population growth…; Changes in populationstructure,…aging…,and the growth of the working-age populations in developing

countries…; The persistence of fertility rates substantially higher or lower than thosedesired…; The disequilibrium between rates of change in population and changes in

resources, environment and development…”

Third World Conference onWomen (Nairobi, 1985)

“In a general manner, an improvementin the situation of women could bring

about a reduction in mortality andmorbidity as well as better regulation offertility and hence of population growth,

which would be beneficial for theenvironment and, ultimately, for women,

children and men.”

United Nations Conference onEnvironment and Development

(Rio de Janeiro, 1992)

“Human beings are at the centre ofconcerns for sustainable development.”

“Demographic trends and factors andsustainable development have a

synergistic relationship.”

Policies should “combine environmentalconcerns and population issues within

a holistic view of development…”

United Nations International Conference on Population and Development(Cairo, 1994)

“Efforts to slow down population growth, to reduce poverty, to achieve economicprogress, to improve environmental protection, and to reduce unsustainable

consumption and production patterns are mutually reinforcing.”

Facilitating the demographic transition “will contribute to the stabilization of the worldpopulation, and, together with changes in unsustainable patterns of production and

consumption, to sustainable development and economic growth.”

“Countries that have not completed their demographic transition should takeeffective steps in this regard within the context of their social and economic

development and with full respect of human rights. These steps include … universalaccess to quality primary education and primary health care, including reproductive

health and family-planning services, and educational strategies regardingresponsible parenthood and sexual education.”

Second United Nations Conference on Human Settlement (Habitat II)(Istanbul, 1996)

“The quality of life and the activities of all human beings within human settlements areclosely interrelated with population change, demographic patterns, including growth,

structure and distribution of population, and development variables such as education,health and nutrition, the levels of use of natural resources, the state of the environ-

ment and the pace and quality of economic and social development.”

9

Expected population growth and decline between 2000 and 2080

Source: IIASA Population Projections

Increase1.00–1.25 1.25–1.501.50–1.751.75–2.002.0–3.03.0–5.8Decrease0.5–0.8 0.8–1.0No data

Ratio of population 2080/2000

Uncertainty distribution of IIASA’s world population projections. Blue line gives median of IIASA projections; red line gives medium variant of the UN’s 1998 long-term projections.

0

4

6

8

12

10

16

2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

0.40.2

0.025

Fractiles0.975

0.894

0.144

0.6

0.8

Tota

l pop

ulat

ion

(bill

ions

)

Year

UN medium variant IIASA median

Projected population growth and aging

0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5

World totalNorth Africa

Sub-Saharan AfricaNorth AmericaLatin America

Central AsiaMiddle EastSouth Asia

China regionPacific Asia

Pacific OECDWestern EuropeEastern EuropeEuropean part

of former USSR

Proportion of population over age 60

200020502100

Total fertility rates, 1995 – 2000

Data source: UN Population Prospects. Revision 2000

1.1 - 1.92.0 - 2.93.0 - 3.94.0 - 5.96.0 - 8.1n.a.

Total fertility rates

10

Education For All

UNESCO’s 1960 ConventionAgainst Discrimination in Educa-tion states that “every person hasthe right to education” and as-ser ts the “principle of non-discrimination.” Many conferenceshave underlined the central role ofeducation as a key to sustainabledevelopment, the fulfillment of fun-damental human rights, and theimprovement of living standards.

Universal access to primary school and basic education

World Conference on Education for All (Jomtien, 1990)

Countries should aim for “Universal access to, and completion of, primary education(or whatever higher level of education is considered as ‘basic’) by the year 2000…”

United Nations International Conference on Population and Development(Cairo, 1994)

“All countries should further strive to ensure the complete access to primary schoolor an equivalent level of education by both girls and boys as quickly as possible, and

in any case before the year 2015.”

World Summit for Social Development (Copenhagen, 1995)

“By the year 2000, universal access to basic education and completion of primaryeducation by at least 80 per cent of primary school-age children;…universal primary

education in all countries before the year 2015.”

Reduction of adult illiteracy

Third World Conference on Women(Nairobi, 1985)

“By the year 2000, illiteracy should havebeen eliminated…”

World Conference on Education forAll (Jomtien, 1990)

Countries should aim for a “Reductionof the adult illiteracy rate... to, say, one-half its 1990 level by the year 2000…”

World Education Forum(Dakar, 2000)

Countries should aim to achieve “a 50per cent improvement in levels of adultliteracy by 2015, especially for women,

and equitable access to basic andcontinuing education for all adults….”

Closing the gender gap in education

United Nations Fourth World Conference on Women (FWCW)(Beijing, 1995)

“[C]lose the gender gap in primary and secondary school education by the year2005…. Provide universal access to, and seek to ensure gender equality in the

completion of, primary education for girls by the year 2000; Eliminate the gender gapin basic and functional literacy…”

World Education Forum (Dakar, 2000)

Goals include “eliminating gender disparities in primary and secondary education by2005, and achieving gender equality in education by 2015, with a focus on ensuringgirls’ full and equal access to and achievement in basic education of good quality…”

Millennium Summit (New York, 2000)

“Eliminate gender disparity in primary and secondary education preferably by 2005,and to all levels of education no later than 2015…”

11

65+60–6455–5950–5445–4940–4435–3930–3425–2920–2415–1910–14

5–90–4

150000

FemalesMales

150000

65+60–6455–5950–5445–4940–4435–3930–3425–2920–2415–1910–14

5–90–4

150000

Females

No educationPrimary SecondaryTertiary

Males

Gender gap in education

150000

Age and education pyramids for (left) the China region and (right) South Asia in 2000. Source: IIASA

Primary education

Gross enrolment ratio,* in percent

0 20 40 60 80 100 1201990 1997

Tertiary education

0 10 20 30 40 50

Asia/Oceania Europe

Countries in transition Sub-Saharan Africa

Arab states Latin America/Caribbean

Eastern Asia/Oceania Southern Asia

North America0 20 40 60 80 100 120

Secondary education

*Total enrolment in primary education, regardless of age, divided by the population of the age group which officially corresponds to primary schooling. Source: UNESCO

No educationPrimary SecondaryTertiary

0

400

800

1200

Mill

ions

China region South Asia

2000 2015 2030

Europe and North America

0

400

800

1200

2000 2015 2030 2000 2015 20302000 2015 2030

Mill

ions

Sub-Saharan Africa

Projected population aged 20 to 64, millions, by level of education if education goals set at the International Conference on Population and Development (1994) are met. Source: IIASA

Education projections

Adult literacy rate, both sexes, 2000

Data source: UN Population Division, PRED Databank 2002

1 – 4950 – 5960 – 6970 – 7980 – 8990 – 100n.a.

Adult literacy rate, %

12

Reduction of child andmaternal mortality rates

United Nations World PopulationConference (Bucharest, 1974)

“Countries with the highest mortalitylevels should aim by 1985 to have…an

infant mortality rate of less than 120 perthousand live births.”

International Conference onPopulation (Mexico, 1984)

“Countries with higher mortality levelsshould aim to achieve…an infant

mortality rate of less than 50 per 1,000live births by the year 2000....” and “to

reduce maternal mortality by at least 50per cent by the year 2000, where such

mortality is very high...”

Millennium Summit(New York, 2000)

Goals include reducing “by two thirds,between 1990 and 2015, the under-fivemortality rate” and “By the year 2015, to

have reduced maternal mortality by threequarters, and under-five child mortality by

two thirds of their current rates...”

Health

Primary and reproductive health care

United Nations Conference on Environment and Development(Rio de Janeiro, 1992)

“The global objective is to achieve a 10 to 40 per cent improvement in health indica-tors by the year 2000.…These include the development of quantitative objectives for

infant mortality, maternal mortality, percentage of low birth weight newborns andspecific indicators (e.g. tuberculosis as an indicator of crowded housing, diarrhoeal

diseases as indicators of inadequate water and sanitation…)”

United Nations International Conference on Population and Development(Cairo, 1994)

“All countries should make access to basic health care and health promotion thecentral strategies for reducing mortality and morbidity.”

“All countries should take steps to meet the family-planning needs of their popula-tions as soon as possible and should, in all cases by the year 2015, seek to provideuniversal access to a full range of safe and reliable family-planning methods and to

related reproductive health services…”

World Summit for Social Development (Copenhagen, 1995)

“By the year 2000, attainment by all peoples of the world of a level of health that willpermit them to lead a socially and economically productive life, and to this end,

ensuring primary health care for all...”

Communicable diseases

United Nations Conference onEnvironment and Development

(Rio de Janeiro, 1992)

Countries should aim, by the year 2000,“To institute anti-malaria programmes inall countries where malaria presents asignificant health problem and maintain

the transmission-free status of areasfreed from endemic malaria”

Millennium Summit(New York, 2000)

Goals include to have “halted by 2015and begun to reverse the incidence ofmalaria and other major diseases...”

Life expectancy at birth

United Nations World Population Conference (Bucharest, 1974)

“Countries with the highest mortality levels should aim by 1985 to have anexpectation of life at birth of at least 50 years...”

International Conference on Population (Mexico, 1984)

“Countries with higher mortality levels should aim for a life expectancy at birth of atleast 60 years…by the year 2000.”

United Nations International Conference on Population and Development(Cairo, 1994)

“Countries with the highest levels of mortality should aim to achieve by 2005 a lifeexpectancy at birth greater than 65 years and by 2015 a life expectancy at birth

greater than 70 years.”

13

Under-five mortality rate, 2000

0 10 20 30 40Years

50 60 70 80

Eastern AfricaMiddle Africa

Northern AfricaSouthern AfricaWestern Africa

AsiaEurope

Latin America & CaribbeanNorth America

Oceania

2000-2005

1975-1980

1950-1955

Source: UN Population Prospects. 2000 Revision.

Life expectancy at birth, 1950-1955, 1975-1980, and 2000-2005

Reported malaria cases, endemic countries only, 1995

14

Poverty

Millennium Development Goals(2000)

“Eradicate extreme poverty: Halve,between 1990 and 2015 the proportionof people whose income is less than

one dollar a day.”

Universal Declaration of Human Rights (New York, 1948)

“Everyone has the right to a standard of living adequate for the health and well-beingof himself and of his family, including food, clothing, housing and medical care and

necessary social services…”

United Nations Conference on the Human Environment (Stockholm, 1972)

“Economic and social development is essential for ensuring a favorable living andworking environment for man and for creating conditions on earth that are necessary

for the improvement of the quality of life.”World Summit for Children

(New York, 1990)

“We will work for a global attack onpoverty, which would have immediate

benefits for children’s welfare.”World Summit for Social Development (Copenhagen, 1995)

“We commit ourselves to the goal of eradicating poverty in the world, throughdecisive national actions and international cooperation, as an ethical, social, politicaland economic imperative of humankind.…Special priority will be given to the needsand rights of women and children, who often bear the greatest burden of poverty.”

World Food Summit (Rome, 1996)

“Poverty eradication is essential to improve access to food. The vast majority of thosewho are undernourished either cannot produce or cannot afford to buy enoughfood….We will ensure an enabling political, social, and economic environment

designed to create the best conditions for the eradication of poverty and for durablepeace, based on full and equal participation of women and men, which is most

conducive to achieving sustainable food security for all.”

G8 Summit (Okinawa, 2000)

“It is a key objective to take a forward-looking approach in a strategic and intensivemanner, in order to assist these countries in their efforts to attain sustainedpoverty reduction and economic development, and achieve the International

Development Goal of a reduction by one half of the proportion of people living inextreme poverty by 2015.”

Recommendations of the Secretary-General to the Millennium Summit(New York, 2000)

“I call on the international community at the highest level—the Heads of State andGovernment convened at the Millenium Summit—to adopt the target of halving the

proportion of people living in extreme poverty, and so lifting more than 1 billion peopleout of it, by 2015. I further urge that no effort be spared to reach this target by that

date in every region, and in every country.”

15

Population living below US$1 a day, millions

South Asia: 515

Latin America: 110East Asia and

Pacific: 446

Africa: 229

Source: World Bank, 1999

Change in number of people living below US$1 per day, 1987-1998

-150.4

-60.4

16.5

-3

-3.3

47.4

84.4

-200 -100 0 100

MillionsSource: World Bank

Sub-Saharan Africa

Middle East and North Africa

Latin America and the Caribbean

Eastern Europe and Central Asia

South Asia

East Asia and Pacific (excluding China)

East Asia and Pacific

15

30

45

60

0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6

GDP index

0.8 1.0

Income distribution versus per capita gross domestic product

GIN

I coe

ficcie

nt

OECD countries

Eastern Europe

Latin America

Sub-Saharan Africa

Middle East & North Africa

South & East Asia

Central Asia

Source: IIASA

< 0.150.15 – 0.300.30 – 0.450.45 – 0.600.60 – 0.75> 0.75n.a.

Per capita GDP index

Source: IIASA

16

Hunger

World Food Summit (Rome, 1996)

Governments should aim “to eradicate hunger in all countries, with an immediate viewto reducing the number of undernourished people to half their present level no later

than 2015.”

“[W]e will endeavour to prevent and be prepared for natural disasters and man-madeemergencies and to meet transitory and emergency food requirements in ways that

encourage recovery, rehabilitation, development and a capacity to satisfy future needs.”

United Nations Conference on the Human Environment (Stockholm, 1972)

“It is recommended that the United Nations agencies should focus special attentionon the provision of assistance for combating the menace of human malnutrition

rampant in many parts of the world.”

United Nations World Population Conference (Bucharest, 1974)

“In order to increase the production and distribution of food for the growing worldpopulation it is recommended that Governments give high priority to improving

methods of food production, the investigation and development of new sources offood and more effective utilization of existing sources.”

World Food Conference (Rome, 1974)

“Every man, woman and child has the inalienable right to be free from hunger andmalnutrition in order to develop fully and maintain their physical and mental faculties…”

International Conference on Population (Mexico City, 1984)

“National and international efforts should give high priority to … the eradication ofmass hunger and the achievement of adequate health and nutrition levels…”

World Summit for Children (New York, 1990)

The Plan of Action calls for a “Reduction of severe and moderate malnutrition amongunder-5 children by one half of 1990 levels…” by the year 2000.

World Summit for Social Develop-ment (Copenhagen, 1995)

A priority should be “Developing andstrengthening emergency food reserves

as a means to prevent acute foodshortages and stabilize prices, with

facilities for food storage, transportationand distribution during emergencies…”

Countries should strive for, “By the year2000, a reduction of severe and

moderate malnutrition among childrenunder five years of age by half of the

1990 level…”

World Food Summit (Rome, 2002)Millennium Development Goals (2000)

“Halve the number of hungry in the world not later than 2015, as reaffirmed by theUnited Nations Millennium of the Declaration...”

Undefined

60–80%

40–60%

20–40%

10–20%

5–10%

0–5%

No data

Undernourished population

Source: FAO/IIASA

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1969–1971 1979–1981 1990–1992 1997–1999

Unde

rnou

rishe

d po

pulat

ion

(milli

ons)

Latin America & Caribbean

South Asia

East Asia

Near East & North Africa

Sub-Saharan Africa

Source: FAO/IIASA

Undefined

>50%

20% to 50%

5% to 20%

–5% to 5%

–20% to –5%

–50% to –20%

<–50%

Not assessed

Water

Climate change impact on cereal production

Source: IIASA, 2001