panorama do mercado de energia elétrica no brasil
TRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: Panorama do Mercado de Energia Elétrica no Brasil](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062710/55a12c811a28ab34138b4711/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Em 2001 o Brasil sofreu seumaior racionamento
![Page 2: Panorama do Mercado de Energia Elétrica no Brasil](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062710/55a12c811a28ab34138b4711/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Polêmica envolvendo Belo Monte
![Page 3: Panorama do Mercado de Energia Elétrica no Brasil](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062710/55a12c811a28ab34138b4711/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
PIB cresce acima das expectativas, afirma Mantega
![Page 4: Panorama do Mercado de Energia Elétrica no Brasil](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062710/55a12c811a28ab34138b4711/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Qual a chance de o Brasil passarpor um novo racionamento?
![Page 5: Panorama do Mercado de Energia Elétrica no Brasil](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062710/55a12c811a28ab34138b4711/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
O plano de expansão é suficientepara suprir a demanda futura?
?
![Page 6: Panorama do Mercado de Energia Elétrica no Brasil](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062710/55a12c811a28ab34138b4711/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Projeção baseia-se no histórico de consumo, na estimativa de
crescimento e no plano de expansão
![Page 7: Panorama do Mercado de Energia Elétrica no Brasil](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062710/55a12c811a28ab34138b4711/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
O histórico mostra manutenção das condições de crescimento
![Page 8: Panorama do Mercado de Energia Elétrica no Brasil](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062710/55a12c811a28ab34138b4711/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Fator de capacidade da ordem de 58%.
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
90000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Capacidade Instalada Geração
![Page 9: Panorama do Mercado de Energia Elétrica no Brasil](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062710/55a12c811a28ab34138b4711/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Consumo e crescimento econômico andam juntos
![Page 10: Panorama do Mercado de Energia Elétrica no Brasil](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062710/55a12c811a28ab34138b4711/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
-10.0%
-8.0%
-6.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
PIB Consumo
PIB X Consumo
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0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
40.0%
45.0%
50.0%
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20
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20
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Outros
Residencial
Comercial
Industrial
Consumo por Setor da Economia
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Tendência de descentralização
![Page 13: Panorama do Mercado de Energia Elétrica no Brasil](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062710/55a12c811a28ab34138b4711/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
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20
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20
09
Norte
Nordeste
Centro -Oeste
Sul
Sudeste
Participação das Regiões no Consumo
![Page 14: Panorama do Mercado de Energia Elétrica no Brasil](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062710/55a12c811a28ab34138b4711/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
População por Região
-
10,000,000
20,000,000
30,000,000
40,000,000
50,000,000
60,000,000
70,000,000
80,000,000
90,000,000
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
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20
06
20
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20
08
20
09
Centro Oeste
Norte
Nordeste
Sul
Sudeste
![Page 15: Panorama do Mercado de Energia Elétrica no Brasil](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062710/55a12c811a28ab34138b4711/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
-
100,000,000
200,000,000
300,000,000
400,000,000
500,000,000
600,000,000
700,000,000
800,000,000
900,000,000
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
Sudeste
Sul
Centro Oeste
Norte
NE
Produção Industrial por Região
![Page 16: Panorama do Mercado de Energia Elétrica no Brasil](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062710/55a12c811a28ab34138b4711/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
A geração de energia é dominada pelas hidrelétricas
![Page 17: Panorama do Mercado de Energia Elétrica no Brasil](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062710/55a12c811a28ab34138b4711/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
80.0%
90.0%
100.0%
Hidráulica
Térmica
Termo-Nuclear
Eólica
Hidrelétricas correspondem a mais de 90%
![Page 18: Panorama do Mercado de Energia Elétrica no Brasil](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062710/55a12c811a28ab34138b4711/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Volume Útil Médio
Volume Médio dos Reservatórios
![Page 19: Panorama do Mercado de Energia Elétrica no Brasil](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062710/55a12c811a28ab34138b4711/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
Caracterização do consumo de eletricidade no Brasil
![Page 20: Panorama do Mercado de Energia Elétrica no Brasil](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062710/55a12c811a28ab34138b4711/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
Projeção de crescimento do consumo de 5,4% aoano
![Page 21: Panorama do Mercado de Energia Elétrica no Brasil](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062710/55a12c811a28ab34138b4711/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
Crescimento médio do PIB de 5,0% ao ano
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
PIB
![Page 22: Panorama do Mercado de Energia Elétrica no Brasil](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062710/55a12c811a28ab34138b4711/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
Efeito Atividade
![Page 23: Panorama do Mercado de Energia Elétrica no Brasil](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062710/55a12c811a28ab34138b4711/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
Efeito Conteúdo
![Page 24: Panorama do Mercado de Energia Elétrica no Brasil](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062710/55a12c811a28ab34138b4711/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
Efeito Comércio Exterior
-
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Exportação Importação
![Page 25: Panorama do Mercado de Energia Elétrica no Brasil](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062710/55a12c811a28ab34138b4711/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
Crescimento demográfico mantém perspectiva
0.50%
0.70%
0.90%
1.10%
1.30%
1.50%
1.70%
1.90%
2.10%
2.30%
2.50%
População
![Page 26: Panorama do Mercado de Energia Elétrica no Brasil](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062710/55a12c811a28ab34138b4711/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
Regressão baseia-se no crescimento econômicotrimestral
![Page 27: Panorama do Mercado de Energia Elétrica no Brasil](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062710/55a12c811a28ab34138b4711/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
Crescimento trimestral do PIB
-3.0%
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
20
02
20
02
20
03
20
03
20
04
20
04
20
05
20
05
20
06
20
06
20
07
20
07
20
08
20
08
20
09
20
09
PIB
![Page 28: Panorama do Mercado de Energia Elétrica no Brasil](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062710/55a12c811a28ab34138b4711/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
65,000
70,000
75,000
80,000
85,000
90,000
95,000
100,000
105,000
Consumo Consumo Estimado
Consumo Estimado X Consumo Real
![Page 29: Panorama do Mercado de Energia Elétrica no Brasil](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062710/55a12c811a28ab34138b4711/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
Projeção de Consumo
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
500,000
550,000
600,000
650,000
700,000
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Previsão de Consumo
![Page 30: Panorama do Mercado de Energia Elétrica no Brasil](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062710/55a12c811a28ab34138b4711/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
0.50%
1.00%
1.50%
2.00%
2.50%
1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
População-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
20
05
20
07
20
09
20
11
20
13
20
15
20
17
20
19
PIB= +
Caracterização da estimativa do consumo de eletricidade
![Page 31: Panorama do Mercado de Energia Elétrica no Brasil](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062710/55a12c811a28ab34138b4711/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
Projeção do crescimento médio da oferta entre 2,0% e 3,9%
![Page 32: Panorama do Mercado de Energia Elétrica no Brasil](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062710/55a12c811a28ab34138b4711/html5/thumbnails/32.jpg)
Usinas em construção acrescentarão 17,8GW à matriz energética
![Page 33: Panorama do Mercado de Energia Elétrica no Brasil](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062710/55a12c811a28ab34138b4711/html5/thumbnails/33.jpg)
Jirau
![Page 34: Panorama do Mercado de Energia Elétrica no Brasil](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062710/55a12c811a28ab34138b4711/html5/thumbnails/34.jpg)
Santo Antônio
![Page 35: Panorama do Mercado de Energia Elétrica no Brasil](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062710/55a12c811a28ab34138b4711/html5/thumbnails/35.jpg)
Belo Monte
![Page 36: Panorama do Mercado de Energia Elétrica no Brasil](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062710/55a12c811a28ab34138b4711/html5/thumbnails/36.jpg)
Usinas em planejamento acrescentariam 11,7GW à matriz
![Page 37: Panorama do Mercado de Energia Elétrica no Brasil](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062710/55a12c811a28ab34138b4711/html5/thumbnails/37.jpg)
Caracterização do plano de expansão
Crescimento – 20,4%Fator de cap. – 81%
Crescimento – 33,8%Fator de cap. – 73%
![Page 38: Panorama do Mercado de Energia Elétrica no Brasil](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062710/55a12c811a28ab34138b4711/html5/thumbnails/38.jpg)
Conclusões