paradigm shifts and impact on industry and technology
DESCRIPTION
PARADIGM SHIFTS AND IMPACT ON INDUSTRY AND TECHNOLOGY. Marcus O. Durham THEWAY Corp / U of Tulsa Robert A. Durham Central & Southwest Srvcs, WTU. PARADIGMS Introduction. A set of rules that define boundaries of a system Provide description of operation within boundaries - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
PARADIGM SHIFTS AND IMPACT ON INDUSTRY AND
TECHNOLOGY
Marcus O. DurhamMarcus O. Durham THEWAY Corp / U of Tulsa THEWAY Corp / U of TulsaRobert A. DurhamRobert A. Durham Central & Southwest Srvcs, WTU Central & Southwest Srvcs, WTU
PARADIGMSIntroduction
A set of rules that define boundaries of a system
Provide description of operation within boundaries
In 4 words or less A WAY OF THINKING
HISTORYAdvances in Technology - Tools
Nomad Independence Hunt-Herd-Gather, Basic Shelter
Agrarian Economy Farm, Store, Permanent Shelter
Industrial Revolution Systems, Controlled by Owner,Information, Desirable Shelter
Information Explosion Technology if willing to risk and learn, Choice of Shelter
HISTORYBusiness Life Cycle
Technology Birth and Growth
Management Stability and Expansion by Acquisition
Legal Risk Avoidance and Demise
TECHNOLOGY LIFE CYCLE
Dream or Concept Beginning Plan Focus Growth Critical Mass Maturity Bandwidth– Roll-off Stale– Satiation Stagnant– Demise Pull Plug
Last Century - Cycle > GenerationNext Century - Cycle < 5 years
CONCEPT
PLAN
GROWTH ROLL-OFF
SATIATION
DEMISEtime
$ MATURITY
Figure 1 - Technology Cycle
Effort to Recapture Dream New Organization to Salvage Management Reduce Costs of People Employ Technology to Some Extent Focus on Core Business
EXTENDING LIFE CYCLEResurrection - Entity
Concentrate on Investors Flat Organizations Support Services - Computer and Phone Outsource
EXTENDING LIFE CYCLEResurrection - People
EXTENDING LIFE CYCLENetwork
Managers of Outside Technology Coordinate Suppliers, Marketers, Transporters Independent Entities Costs concentrated at Source Technologists at Each Corner Best in Information Society
TECHNOLOGY MANAGER
MARKETER
SUPPLIER TRANSPORTER
PRODUCT - MARKETER - CLIENT
Figure 2 - Network for Technologists
EXTENDING LIFE CYCLEWealth - Last 2 Decades
Old Thinking No Opportunity90% Purchases Did Not ExistNew Ways Use Old ThingsNew Things Use UnvaluableMajor Wealth Technology to Distribution
Directing Information Moving Products
Supplying Transportation
THEORY OF TECHNOLOGYZero - Sum
Conservation of EnergyClosed System
Stable - No GrowthDesirable for ControlLimited Resources
Gain at Expense of Others
Continually Changing Source of EnergyOpen System
Building = GrowthUnregulated
New Resources / ApplicationsNew Wealth / Value
THEORY OF TECHNOLOGYFind More
THEORY OF TECHNOLOGYSociety
Physical Resources Basis of Closed SystemSociety Arch Type of Open SystemTechnology The Outside Influence
Value to Previous Worthless
NOT ZERO SUM
THEORY OF ECONOMICSContinuously Changing
Adam Smith 1776Wealth of NationsWhat’s Good for _____ is Good for Country
John Maynard Keynes 1930General Theory of Employment Interest & MoneySatisfied Customer Quits, so Progressively Tax
Paul Samuelson 1950 - 1990EconomicsUtilization of Scarce Resources
THEORY OF ECONOMICSMore Changes
John Kenneth Galbraith 1958Affluent SocietyNo Difference in Luxuries & Necessities
Paul Zane Pilzer 1990Unlimited WealthQuantity Becomes Quality
Consumer Quits Buying, So Tax - US Policyor
Consumer Never Satisfied
60 Years Shows Latter
US Tax Structure is Penalizing
THEORY OF ECONOMICSReality
Search for Gold
Laid Foundation for Investigative Sciences
Pharmacists, Chemists, Metallurgists, Engineers
Successful, but 500 Years Later
THEORY OF ECONOMICSAlchemists
1. Technology Defines Wealth and Determines Desirous Resources.
2. Advance of Technology Determined by Abilityto Process Information.
3. Technology Gap Is the Predictor of Growth.
THEORY OF ALCHEMYTechnology Determinant
THEORY OF ALCHEMYTechnology
W = P * T n
W = Wealth (dollars)P = Physical ResourcesT = Technologyn = Power of Growth
(Positive Feedback)
THEORY OF ALCHEMYEngineer
W = P * e +T t
W = Wealth (dollars)P = Physical ResourcesT = Technology
(Positive Feedback)t = Time
TECHNOLOGY GROWTHHistory
Traditional Slow Agrarian Physical Resource Control Industrial Technology Control Information Control Broken Paradigm Shift Information to Anyone
T = I
Transaction Cost = Inefficiency Transaction Cost Lower From Computers Major firms - Inefficient - Reorganize endlessly Small Business - Low Cost Minimal Size Entity Wins
“NATURE OF FIRMS”Ron Coase
Figure 4 - Control System Model
Garbage Data Info Knowledge Application Tech
History
Desire
Budget
+
Limiters
Proportional To Sum:Acceleration of InformationSpeed of ApplicationChanges from History
THEORY OF INFORMATIONTechnology
T = d2 /d t2 (Info) + d /d t (Application) + d (history)
THEORY OF INFORMATIONFeedback
Negative - Control & Stability Positive - Growth & Expansion Filters Affect Outcome
–Width - Chops Noise, Time Response–Height - Attenuation, Gain–Rate of Change - Velocity or summation
FILTER
Mag
time
TECHNOLOGY GROWTHLimiters
Application Not Implemented Incorrect History InterpretationRegulate To Protect
LIMITS ON TECHNOLOGYCost = Perceived Value
PV = FV - d(MC + BC + DC) * N
PV Perceived ValueFV Functional ValueMC Manufacturing CostBC Business CostDC Distribution CostNNumber of Units
TECHNOLOGY GAPFeedback Loop
TC = PV + TG
If FV > then PV > then TG <
TC Technology CostFV Quality, education, reliabilityPV Perceived ValueTG Technology Gap
SHIFT OF COSTSWhere?
Manufacturing Insignificant Today Distribution is the Major Cost Technology for Distribution
–Retailer - Minimize Handlers, Computer Links, Control–Package Express - New Airline, Central Sorting, Send Back–Direct Market - Computer / Satellite, Express, JIT Customer
Major Wealth in Last 20 Years ?
Technological Distribution
PEOPLE PLACEMENT Cope Vs Options
Unskilled Labor Growing GapMotivation & Moral Responsible
Skilled “Blue Collar” New JobNew Enterprise
Manager No Need ConventionalTransition to Technology Mgr
Technologists OutsourceOpportunity Vs Stable
PEOPLE PLACEMENTCyberspace
Not About Computers Release of Information to More People Technology not Domain of Managers
Apr'94
Nov'94
Apr'95
Oct'95
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
Apr'94
Nov'94
Apr'95
Oct'95
Internet Connections
PEOPLE PLACEMENTSociety Good
Technology Replace Person More Money to Owner More to Spend on Non-Necessities New Enterprises from New Lifestyle
FUTURE FOR EDUCATIONAnalysis of Technology
Reams of Data Little Knowledge Can’t Review & Validate Can’t Ascertain Problems
Technical Expert vs. Artificial Expert Need Basic Principles Emphasis
2 * 2 = ?
FUTURE FOR EDUCATIONRefocus
Old New Technical Theory Skills Change Fast Deal With Things Deal With People Info Age - ‘Vacuum’ Haven Need People Skills
Continuing EducationSeminar
Short Courses Professional Society
FUTURE OF ORGANIZATIONSIndependent Interdependence
Technology Change & CreativityManufacturing Efficient Joint VenturesMarketing Entrepreneurs, Niche ClienteleDistribution Technology Manager Products /
InfoSupport Network Education and EncouragementMajor Companies ?
FUTURE FOR TECHNOLOGISTSWay to Go
20 Years Ago Concept to market, 5 years Today Life Cycle of Technology < 5 Years
Need Less Advanced Skills, More Application Multiple Separate Businesses One Flourishes, Others Incubate Develop Where You Want
With Information System
FUTURE FOR TECHNOLOGISTSNew Criteria
Network Others Must Know Exchange Skills Niche Marketer Unconventional People Skills Mandatory Change Uncomfortable, but Future is Bright
FUTURE OF TECHNOLOGISTSInformation Revolution
Major Corporation Deterioration of Empire Life Time Employment w/ Co. HA Life Time Doing Same Thing HA HA THAT’S GOOD NEWS Opportunitie$
“Business Reality: We are not a family - this is business.
The Company and the Employees have formed a partnershipwhich should be mutually beneficial.
Either party can terminate this partnership at any timeif it ceases to be beneficial - no hard feelings.
This is a job - it should be challenging and rewarding -but it is still just a job.
Loyalty and high morale may no longer be part of therelationship.
Long term security is no longer a reality.”
SUMMARYParadigm Shift
Tech Growth = Info Acceleration + Application Speed
Tech Limit = Perceived Costs
Tech Gap = Advances - Application
Opportunity = Tech Gap + Spin-Offs
SUMMARYOrganization Inertia Makes Unresponsive Traditional Pare to Flat Independent Manufacturers, Marketing, Transporters
Marketer
TechnologyManager
Supplier Transporter
SUMMARYTechnologists
Success = Change
Communications & People Skills
Basic Education on Fundamentals
Continuing Education
SUMMARYMatter of Control
Stability of Negative Feedback
OR
Explosive Growth of Positive Feedback
$
CONCEPT
PLAN
GROWTH
time
MATURITY OPPORTUNITY
RECOGNITION
Questions?