Eruption Forecasting through the Bayesian Event Tree: the software package BET_EFEruption Forecasting through the Bayesian Event Tree: the software package BET_EFINGVINGV

PART II: BET_EF installationPART II: BET_EF installation

PART II: BET_EF installationPART II: BET_EF installation

Eruption Forecasting through the Bayesian Event Tree: the software package BET_EFEruption Forecasting through the Bayesian Event Tree: the software package BET_EFINGVINGV

Install BET_EFInstall BET_EF

BET_EF requires the installation of the Installer 3.1 and the .NET framework (checked automatically and included in the installation package)

Eruption Forecasting through the Bayesian Event Tree: the software package BET_EFEruption Forecasting through the Bayesian Event Tree: the software package BET_EFINGVINGV

Run BET_EF… and BET_UPGRADERun BET_EF… and BET_UPGRADE

…ready to be run…

… and to browse the MANUAL

Eruption Forecasting through the Bayesian Event Tree: the software package BET_EFEruption Forecasting through the Bayesian Event Tree: the software package BET_EFINGVINGV

BET_EF and BET_UPGRADEBET_EF and BET_UPGRADE

BET_UPGRADE package

• upgrading and reviewing the ET settings• input of volcano information, past data and monitoring parameters • …

BET_EF package • it runs the Event Tree • Probabilities distribution• Probability maps• …

Load information

Update & review

Eruption Forecasting through the Bayesian Event Tree: the software package BET_EFEruption Forecasting through the Bayesian Event Tree: the software package BET_EFINGVINGV

Eruption Forecasting through the Bayesian Event Tree: the software package BET_EFEruption Forecasting through the Bayesian Event Tree: the software package BET_EFINGVINGV

BET_UPGRADE: Recover functionBET_UPGRADE: Recover function

BET_UPGRADE automatically saves all the previous loading processes (both complete or partial)… all of them can be “recovered” and upgraded

Eruption Forecasting through the Bayesian Event Tree: the software package BET_EFEruption Forecasting through the Bayesian Event Tree: the software package BET_EFINGVINGV

BET_UPGRADE: GoalBET_UPGRADE: Goal

In BET_UPGRADE, we input NODE BY NODE:

1. Volcanological information

2. Past data

3. Monitoring parameters

4. Past monitored episodes

5. Name, location, maps, etc. for the visualization of output probabilities (when necessary)

Non monitoring info

Monitoring info

Other info

Note that:

• each input helps, but is not necessary: if some information is not available, the epistemic uncertainty increases, but probability estimations are still possible

• Monitoring info are not present at all nodes

Eruption Forecasting through the Bayesian Event Tree: the software package BET_EFEruption Forecasting through the Bayesian Event Tree: the software package BET_EFINGVINGV

NODE 1NODE 1UNRESTUNREST

Eruption Forecasting through the Bayesian Event Tree: the software package BET_EFEruption Forecasting through the Bayesian Event Tree: the software package BET_EFINGVINGV

BET_UPGRADE: Node 1BET_UPGRADE: Node 1

Probability of UNREST in the next time window

Focus:

• Temporal information for all processes (definition of the forecasting window)

• Definition and detection of unrest episodes

Possible inputs:

1. Volcanological information

2. Past data

3. Monitoring parameters

Eruption Forecasting through the Bayesian Event Tree: the software package BET_EFEruption Forecasting through the Bayesian Event Tree: the software package BET_EFINGVINGV

Past data: Historical record of unrest episodes: Nu “successes” on N “measures”

- Length of the time windows - number of windows without unrest episodes (N, white blocks)- number of windows in which episodes start (Nu, red blocks)

NB windows containing ongoing unrest episodes (yellow blocks) are not counted

Node 1: Models and Past dataNode 1: Models and Past data

Volcanological information:

(best guess) and (confidence) from a model that forecasts the next unrest episode

Eruption Forecasting through the Bayesian Event Tree: the software package BET_EFEruption Forecasting through the Bayesian Event Tree: the software package BET_EFINGVINGV

Node 1: MonitoringNode 1: Monitoring

Monitoring parameters:

Number (main form) and definition of each one of them (monitoring form)

- Name, description

- Symbol & units

- lower and upper thresholds

- relationship

Eruption Forecasting through the Bayesian Event Tree: the software package BET_EFEruption Forecasting through the Bayesian Event Tree: the software package BET_EFINGVINGV

Node 1: Main formNode 1: Main form

Volcanological info Past data

Monitoring

… and the preview of the distribution can be visualized

Information is input ONLY WHEN AVALABLE

Eruption Forecasting through the Bayesian Event Tree: the software package BET_EFEruption Forecasting through the Bayesian Event Tree: the software package BET_EFINGVINGV

Node 1: Monitoring formsNode 1: Monitoring forms

Monitoring

Eruption Forecasting through the Bayesian Event Tree: the software package BET_EFEruption Forecasting through the Bayesian Event Tree: the software package BET_EFINGVINGV

NODE 2NODE 2MAGMA MAGMA

(movement of magma (movement of magma bodies)bodies)

Eruption Forecasting through the Bayesian Event Tree: the software package BET_EFEruption Forecasting through the Bayesian Event Tree: the software package BET_EFINGVINGV

BET_UPGRADE: Node 2BET_UPGRADE: Node 2

Probability of MAGMA given an unrest

Focus:

• Detection of magma

• Usually the less constrained process

• Monitoring parameters to track the presence of magma (during an ongoing unrest)

Input information:

1. Volcanological information

2. Past data

3. Monitoring parameters

4. Past monitored episodes

Eruption Forecasting through the Bayesian Event Tree: the software package BET_EFEruption Forecasting through the Bayesian Event Tree: the software package BET_EFINGVINGV

Node 2: Models and Past dataNode 2: Models and Past data

Past data: Historical record of magmatic unrest episodes: Nm and Nu

- Nu: number of unrest episodes (less or equal to node 1)- Nm: number of magmatic unrest episodes

Volcanological information:

(best guess) and (confidence) from a model that forecasts the occurrence of magmatic unrest among unrest episodes

Eruption Forecasting through the Bayesian Event Tree: the software package BET_EFEruption Forecasting through the Bayesian Event Tree: the software package BET_EFINGVINGV

Node 2: MonitoringNode 2: Monitoring

Monitoring parameters:

Number (main form) and definition of each one of them (monitoring form)

- Name, description

- Symbol & units

- lower and upper thresholds

- relationship

- weight

Eruption Forecasting through the Bayesian Event Tree: the software package BET_EFEruption Forecasting through the Bayesian Event Tree: the software package BET_EFINGVINGV

Node 2: Past monitored eventsNode 2: Past monitored events

Past monitored events:

1) Number of monitored past UNREST (in the main form)

2) outcome, i.e., magmatic or not (Yes/No)

3) measures during the unrest

Eruption Forecasting through the Bayesian Event Tree: the software package BET_EFEruption Forecasting through the Bayesian Event Tree: the software package BET_EFINGVINGV

Node 2: Main formNode 2: Main form

Volcanological info Past data

Monitoring

Past Mon.

Eruption Forecasting through the Bayesian Event Tree: the software package BET_EFEruption Forecasting through the Bayesian Event Tree: the software package BET_EFINGVINGV

Node 2: Monitoring and Past mon. formsNode 2: Monitoring and Past mon. forms

Monitoring Past Mon.

Eruption Forecasting through the Bayesian Event Tree: the software package BET_EFEruption Forecasting through the Bayesian Event Tree: the software package BET_EFINGVINGV

NODE 3NODE 3ERUPTIONERUPTION

Eruption Forecasting through the Bayesian Event Tree: the software package BET_EFEruption Forecasting through the Bayesian Event Tree: the software package BET_EFINGVINGV

BET_UPGRADE: Node 3BET_UPGRADE: Node 3

Probability of ERUPTION given a magmatic unrest

Focus:

• Forecasting of eruptions

• Monitoring parameters to recognize an incoming eruption (during an ongoing magmatic unrest)

Input information:

1. Volcanological information

2. Past data

3. Monitoring parameters

4. Past monitored episodes

Eruption Forecasting through the Bayesian Event Tree: the software package BET_EFEruption Forecasting through the Bayesian Event Tree: the software package BET_EFINGVINGV

Past data: Historical record of magmatic unrest episodes: Ne and Nm (or Nu)

- Ne: number of eruptions

- Nm: number of magmatic unrest episodes

in alternative…

- Nu: number of known unrest episodes

Node 3: Models and past dataNode 3: Models and past data

Volcanological information:

(best guess) and (confidence) from a model that forecasts the occurrence of eruptions among magmatic unrest episodes

Eruption Forecasting through the Bayesian Event Tree: the software package BET_EFEruption Forecasting through the Bayesian Event Tree: the software package BET_EFINGVINGV

Node 3: Monitoring and Past mon. episodesNode 3: Monitoring and Past mon. episodes

Past monitored events:

As in node 2, but only monitored magmatic unrest episodes

Monitoring:

As in node 2, with the goal of forecasting eruptions

Eruption Forecasting through the Bayesian Event Tree: the software package BET_EFEruption Forecasting through the Bayesian Event Tree: the software package BET_EFINGVINGV

Node 3: Main formNode 3: Main form

Volcanological info Past data

Monitoring

Past Mon.

Eruption Forecasting through the Bayesian Event Tree: the software package BET_EFEruption Forecasting through the Bayesian Event Tree: the software package BET_EFINGVINGV

Node 3: Monitoring formsNode 3: Monitoring forms

Monitoring Past Mon.

Eruption Forecasting through the Bayesian Event Tree: the software package BET_EFEruption Forecasting through the Bayesian Event Tree: the software package BET_EFINGVINGV

NODE 4NODE 4VENTVENT

Eruption Forecasting through the Bayesian Event Tree: the software package BET_EFEruption Forecasting through the Bayesian Event Tree: the software package BET_EFINGVINGV

BET_UPGRADE: Node 4BET_UPGRADE: Node 4

Probability of a SPECIFIC VENT for the incoming eruption

Focus:

• Spatial problem: number and geometry of possible locations are chosen by the user

• Localization of monitoring among the parameters at node 1,2 and 3

• Monitoring do not control completely the short-term probability

Input information:1. Volcanological information

2. Past data

3. Monitoring parameters… of nodes 1,2 & 3

Eruption Forecasting through the Bayesian Event Tree: the software package BET_EFEruption Forecasting through the Bayesian Event Tree: the software package BET_EFINGVINGV

Node 4: Spatial definitionNode 4: Spatial definition

UTM or degrees

Volcano coords

Visualization map

Volcano’s Geometry:

central or grid

Eruption Forecasting through the Bayesian Event Tree: the software package BET_EFEruption Forecasting through the Bayesian Event Tree: the software package BET_EFINGVINGV

Node 4: Spatial definitionNode 4: Spatial definition

UTM or degrees

Volcano coords

Visualization map

Volcano’s Geometry:

central or grid

Eruption Forecasting through the Bayesian Event Tree: the software package BET_EFEruption Forecasting through the Bayesian Event Tree: the software package BET_EFINGVINGV

Node 4: Models, Past data and MonitoringNode 4: Models, Past data and Monitoring

Monitoring:

All parameters defined at nodes 1, 2 and 3 may be localized to help spatially forecast the impending eruption… … there is not a specific list of monitoring parameters at node 4!!!

Past data: Historical eruption with known vent position: Ne (in the i-th location)

Volcanological information:

i (best guess) and i(confidence) for each vent location from a model that forecasts the position of the next vent

Eruption Forecasting through the Bayesian Event Tree: the software package BET_EFEruption Forecasting through the Bayesian Event Tree: the software package BET_EFINGVINGV

Node 4: Models and Past dataNode 4: Models and Past data

Volcanological info Past data

… or loaded from a file for all VENTS

Eruption Forecasting through the Bayesian Event Tree: the software package BET_EFEruption Forecasting through the Bayesian Event Tree: the software package BET_EFINGVINGV

NODE 5NODE 5SIZESIZE

Eruption Forecasting through the Bayesian Event Tree: the software package BET_EFEruption Forecasting through the Bayesian Event Tree: the software package BET_EFINGVINGV

BET_UPGRADE: Node 5BET_UPGRADE: Node 5

Probability of a SPECIFIC SIZE for the incoming eruption

Focus:

• Energetic/scenario approaches

• Number of size groups and their definition are not predefined, but are defined by the user

• Monitoring is not considered

Input information:1. Volcanological information

2. Past data

Eruption Forecasting through the Bayesian Event Tree: the software package BET_EFEruption Forecasting through the Bayesian Event Tree: the software package BET_EFINGVINGV

Node 5: Groups, Models and Past dataNode 5: Groups, Models and Past data

The number of groups and their definition must be defined by the user with a practical approach:

- link with models for outcomes (lava flows, tephra fall, pyroclastic flows, …)

- effusive / explosive / scenarios

- VEIs

- …

Past data: Historical eruption with known size/type

Volcanological information:

i (best guess) and i(confidence) for each size/type from a model that forecasts the size/type of the next eruption

Eruption Forecasting through the Bayesian Event Tree: the software package BET_EFEruption Forecasting through the Bayesian Event Tree: the software package BET_EFINGVINGV

Node 5: Groups, Models and Past dataNode 5: Groups, Models and Past data

number of groups

Volcanological info Past data

Eruption Forecasting through the Bayesian Event Tree: the software package BET_EFEruption Forecasting through the Bayesian Event Tree: the software package BET_EFINGVINGV

BET_UPGRADE summaryBET_UPGRADE summary

FINISHED!!!!

BET_EPGRADE summarizes all of the input information…

…and sets all files to run BET_EF