passenger cars slide 1 - infineum insight · 2000 today 2017 forecast 2021 forecast ... slide 9 p a...

PASSENGER CARS

P A S S E N G E R C A R S

Conventional API SN/ILSAC

GF-566%

API SL and below

5%

Top Tier9%

High Mileage9%

Mid Tier11%

NA SHOW PCMO4

P A S S E N G E R C A R S NA SHOW PCMO11

Despite slow market penetration,ultra low viscosity fluids are on the increase

0

20

40

60

80

100

2000 Today 2017 Forecast 2021 Forecast

Viscosity grade trend forecasts in the North American PCMO market

SAE 0W-XX SAE 5W-20 SAE 5W-30 SAE 10W-30

SAE 10W-40 SAE 20W-50 Monogrades Other


Bob Proctor | Honda R&D Americas Incorporated – Manager of Cost & Environment Planning

Selda Gunsel | Shell – President of Global Commercial Technology

PCMO21NA SHOW

PCMO F-1

PCMO F-2


General Motors18%

Toyota14%

Honda9%

Nissan8%Hyundai Group

8%

BMW2%

Mercedes-Benz2%

VW + Audi4%

Mazda2%

Subaru3%

Other2%

Fiat Chrysler13%

Ford15%

PCMO12NA SHOW


Vehicle population continues to grow• China accounts for 40% of the increase

• Significant growth in developing markets

‒ India, Indonesia, Brazil, Mexico

Emissions limits tightening in many countries

Tough fuel economy and CO2

emissions limits

OEMs must respond with hardware innovations

1.7 Billion light-duty vehicles by 2040

PCMO1NA SHOW

P A S S E N G E R C A R S NA SHOW

33%hybrids in global

fleet by 2040.Given the current price of crude this

forecast is likely optimistic.

PCMO2

Fuel economy drives the development of new hardware

0

50

100

150

2010 2020 2030 2040

New Vehicle Sales by Type, Millions

Gasoline Diesel Gas/LPG

Full hybrid Electric/fuel cell

Data so

urce: Exxo

n M

ob

il


Kazuo Yamamori | Toyota Motor Corp., Tribology Material Dept.,

Material Development Division – Project Manager

PCMO13

PCMO D-1


US new car sales pass 2007 pre-economic crisis levels

5.9% growth in vehicle sales

• Large and luxury brands post biggest gains

CAFE regulations drivehardware change

• Boosted gasoline gaining popularity

• Hybrids sales drop 8.8%

New hardware drivesspecification changes

0

5

10

15

20

2013 2014

Mill

ion

s

US vehicle sales

US OEMs Japan OEMsEU OEMs Hyundai GroupTata


Ron Romano | Ford Motor Company – Service Lubricants Technical Expert

PCMO14NA SHOW

PCMO B-1

PCMO B-2

Angela Willis | General Motors – Lubricants Manager


Ford Sequence VH

Ford LSPI

Ford Chain Wear

Toyota Sequence IVB

GM Sequence VIE

GMOD*

Chrysler IIIH*Will not be an ASTM standard

PCMO15NA SHOW


Ron Romano | Ford Motor Company – Service Lubricants Technical Expert

PCMO16NA SHOW

PCMO D-3

PCMO D-4

PCMO D-2

PCMO D-7

Bruce Royan | Infineum UK Ltd – Lubricants Technology Manager

Bob Proctor | Honda R&D Americas Incorporated – Manager of Cost & Environment Planning


Downsized and boosted engines exhibit irregular combustion• Severe knocking

• Cracked piston ring lands and skirts

• Cylinder head damage

• Increase emissions

• Lower fuel efficiency

LSPI test focus• Development of test

methodologies

• Evaluate new lubricant technologies

• Enable new hardware without compromising performance

NA SHOW PCMO10

P A S S E N G E R C A R S PCMO17

PCMO D-6

PCMO D-5


Material Development Div. – Project Manager


June - Sept 2015: Tests ready for matrices?

July 2015: Start precision matrices

April 2016: ASTM test acceptance

March 2017: AOAP approval of GF-6

January 1, 2018: API First License Date

PCMO5NA SHOW


Current dexos™ 1 approvals start to expire 2H 2015

A number of new tests requirements

• Low speed pre-ignition

• Aeration

• Vehicle Fuel economy

• GM oxidation (GMOD)

• Turbochargers

Service fill by end of 2015

Factory fill in 2016

GM will use SAE 0W-20 for the majority of their new engines, replacing SAE 5W-30

For light-duty

gasoline

Do we need to ask GM for permission to use?


Angela Willis | General Motors – Lubricants Manager

PCMO18NA SHOW

PCMO A-1

PCMO A-2

PCMO A-3

PCMO D-8

Thom Smith | Valvoline, A Business Unit of Ashland Incorporated –

Vice President of Lubricant Technology



CEC test development influencing release date

Sufficient time between test development and release is needed to ensure a smooth transition

ACEA specifications must keep pace with engine technology

• TU5 succession being discussed

• TU3, M111FE, VW TDI and Sequence VG will need to be discussed

Complete Under development Additional requirementDV6

Oil dispersionOM 646 LA Biodiesel

EP6 Gasoline piston cleanliness

CEC L-109 Bench oxidation

M271 EVO Sludge

Elastomer compatibility

EMEA – PCMO 05

ACEA European Oil Sequences

expected in 2015

The key focus of attention for lubricant formulators in Europe is the revision to the ACEA European Oil Sequences. Timing for the next ACEA sequences is mainly being driven by the progress of CEC test developments. While some tests are ready, some of the most critical tests for the ACEA update are still under development and are proving to be difficult to complete. The good news is that CEC has already completed the DV6 oil dispersion test, which will replace the DV4 and the CEC L-109 Oxidation test, which is supposed to replace the GFC Oxidation test in the ACEA sequences. However, the OM646LA biodiesel test and the M271 EVO sludge test are still under development. In addition, new developments including the EP6 gasoline piston cleanliness and the new elastomer compatibility tests are now in progress. In our view it is essential to leave sufficient time between test development and specification release date to allow stakeholders to understand the tests, discuss limits and collect sufficient data to ensure a smooth and timely transition to the new ACEA sequences. Clearly the ACEA specifications must keep pace with advancements in engine technology and be representative of the vehicle fleet it is meant to protect. Which means that replacing tests are either coming to the end of life or which are no longer representative is an evergreen topic for ACEA. Succession options for TU5 test are already being discussed for the next ACEA sequences and for the subsequent ACEA issues the replacement of TU3, M111FE, VW TDI and the Sequence VG will all become important topics for discussion. It is imperative that ATIEL, ACEA, and ATC work collaboratively for a long term test replacement strategy to maintain the current ACEA sequences.


Proposed new C5 Category• Driven by OEM demand for fuel economy

• SAE 0W-20 and SAE 5W-20 viscosity grades

• Engine performance requirements = ACEA C2

• M111 fuel economy test – 3.0% minimum

Opportunity to reduce complexity

Draft ACEA C5 CategoryHTHS ≥ 2.6 < 2.9 mPa·s

Shear Stability Stay in gradeNoack ≤ 13%

TBNSulphur ≤ 0.3% m/m

Phosphorus ≤ 0.09 ≥ 0.07% m/m

Sulphated Ash ≤ 0.8% m/mChlorine Report

EMEA – PCMO 04

PCMO7

The structure of the light-duty sequences has remained unchanged since the introduction of the ACEA C4 Category in 2007 – but for the next issue we expect a new C5 mid-SAPs category for lower viscosity grades SAE 5 and OW-20 to be included with High Temperature High Shear as low as 2.6, which is driven by OEM requirements for improved fuel economy. While the engine performance requirements are expected to be the same as the ACEA C2 category, the M one eleven fuel economy test limit increases by another 0.5% in Fuel Economy improvement to 3%. In our view this presents a good opportunity to reassess the need for all the current categories to remain, and explore if the complexity of the sequences can be reduced. Bruce Royan, Lubricant Technology Manager at Infineum comments on the ACEA update.



PCMO E

The new ACEA sequences will bring further complexity to the European marketplace. It is important that we deliver higher levels of fuel economy through lubrication in Europe; nevertheless, the approach being taken will fragment further an already very fragmented marketplace. One of the key challenges has been the development of new engine tests that are both reproducible and repeatable and will server the purpose required within the ACEA specification.



Material Development Division – Project Manager

PCMO25

PCMO G-1


Unprecedented test development activity

Aggressive timeline to meet GF-6

Intensive activity around new andrevised OEM specifications

passenger cars slide 1 - infineum insight · 2000 today 2017 forecast 2021 forecast ... slide 9 p a...

Documents