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Patrick FAY CRU. Acome’s 14 th Symposium: Data and Telecom Networks St. Petersburg, Russia May 29-June 2, 2014. Global Optical Cable Developments. Patrick Fay CRU International. 253 Million km of Cabled Fiber Installed in 2013. Annual M F-km. Annual M F-km. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Patrick FAYCRU
© 2014 CRU International Limited confidential
2
Global Optical Cable Developments
Acome’s 14th Symposium:Data and Telecom Networks
St. Petersburg, Russia May 29-June 2, 2014
Patrick Fay
CRU International
© 2014 CRU International Limited confidential
3
253 Million km of Cabled Fiber Installed in 2013
R.O.W – Rest of World: Data: CRU International
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140USW. Eu-ropeChinaR.O.W.
Acome 14th Symposium, May 29-June 2, 2014, St. Petersburg, Russia
Annual M F-km Annual M F-km
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
MM
CATV
Other S-M
Mobile Local
Long-Distance
Oth. Local Tel.
FTTX
© 2014 CRU International Limited confidential
4
Twenty-five countries with > 1 M f-km = 89% of WW S-M DemandFour Countries Account for 2/3 of Global S-M Fibre Demand in 2013, 249.1 M
f-km
China
US
Japan
India
Russia
France
Brazil
Saudi Ara
bia
Korea
Mexic
o
Germ
anyUK
Canada
Austra
lia
Thailand
Indonesia
SpainIta
ly
Turkey
South A
frica
Taiwan
Vietn
am
Netherla
nds
Mala
ysia
Argentin
a0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
China49%
US, Jap., India18%
Next 713%
RoW21%
2013122
Acome 14th Symposium, May 29-June 2, 2014, St. Petersburg, Russia
Next Seven
© 2014 CRU International Limited confidential
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Brazil
India
Italy
Turkey
South Africa
Russia
Germany
Thailand
Spain
France
China
Netherlands
Malaysia
UK
Taiwan
Sweden
Switzerland
Saudi Arabia
Korea
Australia
Denmark
Japan
US
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Cumulative S-M Fibre Installed per HH for 23 CountriesPace of Growth of Installed Base/HH is Mixed: Bars Show Number of Years
at Each Level
1 fkm/hh
2 fkm/hh
3 fkm/hh
4 fkm/hh
5 fkm/hh
Data – CRU International, ITU
Acome 14th Symposium, May 29-June 2, 2014, St. Petersburg, Russia
6 fkm/hh
© 2014 CRU International Limited confidential
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Annual FTTx Demand by Major Region, ‘08-’13
Data: CRU International
Legend
Cabled-fibre Demand, M f-m
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20130
1020304050607080
FTTx
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20130
2
4
6
8
10
FTTC+FTTN
2008200920102011201220130
1020304050607080
FTTB+FTTP
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20130
10203040506070
FTTP
N. Am.
Europe
China
Oth. A-P
R.O.W.
Acome 14th Symposium, May 29-June 2, 2014, St. Petersburg, Russia
© 2014 CRU International Limited confidential
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1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
0
50
100
150
200
250
G652A/B G652C/D G655 G657
G.652C/D overtakes G.652A/B demand
G.652.C/D Fibre Eclipses G.652.A/B in 2006 on Strength of FTTH Demand and Introduction of Merchant Preforms
M f-km
Data CRU International
Acome 14th Symposium, May 29-June 2, 2014, St. Petersburg, Russia
© 2014 CRU International Limited confidential
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Fibre Optic Cable Demand by Fibre-km in 2013
Major Cable Demand by Design
N. Am
.
W. E
ur.
E. Eur.
China
Oth
. A-P
Mid
. East
Africa
Lat. Am
.0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Other
Ribbon
OPGW
ADSS
L. Tube
Data: CRU International
N. Am
.
W. E
ur.
E. Eur.
China
Oth
. A-P
Mid
. East
Africa
Lat. Am
.0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
Ribbon Usage Within Region
Acome 14th Symposium, May 29-June 2, 2014, St. Petersburg, Russia
© 2014 CRU International Limited confidential
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2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014Q10.000
0.005
0.010
0.015
0.020
0.025
0.030
0.035
48-F OFCSMF
Price Example: 48-Fibre Armored Cable in Asia and SMFUS$ fibre-metre
Data: Trade Data, CRU International
Acome 14th Symposium, May 29-June 2, 2014, St. Petersburg, Russia
© 2014 CRU International Limited confidential
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Comments on Q1 2014 Developments
• Demand factors:– NA Shipments are up 15% year-on-year. NA demand up 24%– China demand is up 14%– European demand is up 11%– Global demand is up 13%
• Fibre Pricing:– World fibre shipments up 13% in Q1 2014– Mix of low quarterly installations in 2013, fibre stock build-
up in 2013 and capacity coming on line is contributing to low prices in China
– Joint ventures and facilities in other regions adding to capacity
Acome 14th Symposium, May 29-June 2, 2014, St. Petersburg, Russia
© 2014 CRU International Limited confidential
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CRU’s Wire and Cable TeamThree full-time analysts plus research staff
Patrick Fay
Industry analyst covering:
optical fiber, cable, telecom networks, FTTx Phone: + 1 401 783 4764 Email: [email protected] Company website: http://www.crugroup.com Location: Providence, Rhode Island (RI)
Acome 14th Symposium, May 29-June 2, 2014, St. Petersburg, Russia