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Stock Market Briefing:S&P 500 Sectors Earnings,
Revenues, & ValuationYardeni Research, Inc.
May 9, 2018
Dr. Ed Yardeni516-972-7683
Joe Abbott732-497-5306
Mali Quintana480-664-1333
Please visit our sites atwww.yardeni.comblog.yardeni.com
thinking outside the box
Table Of Contents Table Of ContentsTable Of Contents
May 9, 2018 / S&P 500 Sectors Earnings, Revenues, & Valuation www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
FiguresS&P 500 Earnings & Revenue Growth 3S&P 500 Sectors Quarterly Earnings Per Share 4S&P 500 Sectors Quarterly Revenues Per Share 5S&P 500 Sectors Earnings Growth 6S&P 500 Sectors Revenues Growth 7S&P 500 Sectors Stock Price Indexes 8S&P 500 Sectors Versus 200-Dma 9S&P 500 Sectors Forward Earnings 10S&P 500 Sectors Forward Revenues 11S&P 500 Sectors Forward Profit Margin 12S&P 500 Sectors Forward P/Es 13S&P 500 Sectors Relative Forward P/Es 14S&P 500 Sectors Forward P/Sales 15S&P 500 Sectors Divisors 16S&P 500 Sectors Forward Earnings 17S&P 500 Sectors Net Earnings Revisions Index 18S&P 500 Sectors STRG, STEG & LTEG 19S&P 500 Sectors PEG Ratio 20S&P 500 Sectors Operating Profit Margin 21S&P 500 Sectors Forecasted & Actual Profit Margins 22
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20-120
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
-120
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Q4
S&P 500 EARNINGS PER SHARE GROWTH*(yearly percent change)
Actualy/y growthEstimatedy/y growth**
Latest data thru 5/6/2018
* Yearly growth rates capped at +100% and -100% due to extreme values.** Industry analysts’ consensus expected earnings growth.
Source: Standard & Poor’s.
yardeni.com
Figure 1.
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
Q4
S&P 500 REVENUES PER SHARE(yearly percent change)
Latest (9.5)
Source: Standard & Poor’s.
yardeni.com
Figure 2.
S&P 500 Earnings & Revenue Growth
Page 3 / May 9, 2018 / S&P 500 Sectors Earnings, Revenues, & Valuation www.yardeni.com
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Figure 3.
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19-10
0
10
20
30
40Q4S&P 500
Operating Earnings Per Share
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 192
4
6
8
10
Q4
INDUSTRIALS
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19-3
0
3
6
9
12
Q4CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 190
5
10
15
20
Q4INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 192
3
4
5
6
7
8Q4CONSUMER STAPLES
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
Q4MATERIALS
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19-15-10-505
10152025
Q4
ENERGY
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19-2
-1
0
1
2
3
Q4
REAL ESTATE
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
Q4
FINANCIALS
Includes Real Estatethrough Q2-2016
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
Q4
TELECOMMUNICATION SERVICES
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 192
4
6
8
10
12
14
Q4HEALTH CARE
Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Q4
UTILITIES
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S&P 500 Sectors Quarterly Earnings Per Share
Page 4 / May 9, 2018 / S&P 500 Sectors Earnings, Revenues, & Valuation www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
Figure 4.
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19150
200
250
300
350Q4S&P 500
Revenues Per Share
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 1930
50
70
90
110
Q4
INDUSTRIALS
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 1950
70
90
110
130
150
Q4CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 1920
30
40
50
60
70
80Q4INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 1925
50
75
100
125
Q4CONSUMER STAPLES
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 1925
35
45
55
65
Q4
MATERIALS
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 1925
50
75
100
125
150
175
Q4
ENERGY
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 195
6
7
8
9
Q4
REAL ESTATE
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 1930
35
40
45
50
55
Q4FINANCIALS
Includes Real Estatethrough Q2-2016
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 1915
20
25
30
35
Q4
TELECOMMUNICATION SERVICES
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 1915
45
75
105
135
165
Q4HEALTH CARE
Source: Standard & Poor’s.
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 1925
30
35
40
Q4
UTILITIES
yardeni.com
S&P 500 Sectors Quarterly Revenues Per Share
Page 5 / May 9, 2018 / S&P 500 Sectors Earnings, Revenues, & Valuation www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
Figure 5.
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
Q4
Latest data thru5/6/2018
S&P 500*
Actualy/y growth
Estimatedy/y growth**
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20-50
-25
0
25
50
75
Q4
INDUSTRIALS*
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
Q4
CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY*
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20-50
-25
0
25
50
75
100
125
Q4
INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY*
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20-20
-10
0
10
20
30
Q4
CONSUMER STAPLES*
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
Q4
MATERIALS*
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20-100
-50
0
50
100
150
Q4ENERGY*
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
Q4
REAL ESTATE*
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
Q4
FINANCIALS*
Includes Real Estatethrough Q2-2016
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
Q4
TELECOMMUNICATION SERVICES*
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20-15
0
15
30
45
60
Q4
HEALTH CARE*
* Yearly growth rates capped at +100% and -100% due to extreme values.** Industry analysts consensus expected earnings growth.
Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20-100
-50
0
50
100
150
Q4
UTILITIES*
yardeni.com
S&P 500 Sectors Earnings Growth
Page 6 / May 9, 2018 / S&P 500 Sectors Earnings, Revenues, & Valuation www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
Figure 6.
99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
Q4S&P 500
Revenue Growth y/y (9.5)
99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19-40
-25
-10
5
20
35
Q4
INDUSTRIALS
(8.5)
99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
Q4
CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY
(6.1)
99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
Q4INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY
(15.2)
99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19-20
-10
0
10
20
30
Q4
CONSUMER STAPLES
(10.4)
99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
Q4
MATERIALS
(10.9)
99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19-75
-50
-25
0
25
50
75
Q4
ENERGY
(27.7)
99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19-10
-5
0
5
10
Q4
REAL ESTATE
(-5.0)
99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19-10-505
101520253035
Q4
FINANCIALS
(10.1)
Includes Real Estatethrough Q2-2017.
99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
Q4
TELECOMMUNICATION SERVICES
(0.0)
99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
Q4
HEALTH CARE
(5.9)
Source: Standard & Poor’s.
99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19-20
-10
0
10
20
Q4
UTILITIES
(2.9)yardeni.com
S&P 500 Sectors Revenues Growth
Page 7 / May 9, 2018 / S&P 500 Sectors Earnings, Revenues, & Valuation www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
Figure 7.
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19600
1200
1800
240030003600
5/8S&P 500*(price indexes)
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19125
275
425
575725875
5/8INDUSTRIALS
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19100
350
600
8501100
5/8CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY*
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19175
575
975
13751775
5/8INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19175
275
375
475
575675
5/8CONSUMER STAPLES
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19100
200
300
400
500
5/8MATERIALS
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19300
450
600
750
900
5/8
ENERGY
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 1940
90
140
190240290
5/8REAL ESTATE
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 1975
225
375
525675825
5/8
FINANCIALS
Includes Real Estatethrough September 2016
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 1975
115
155
195
235
5/8
TELECOMMUNICATION SERVICES
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19225
425
625
82510251225
5/8HEALTH CARE
Source: Haver Analytics and Standard & Poor’s Corporation.
200-day moving average* S&P 500 sector price indexes on ratio scales.
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19100
150
200
250
300350
5/8
UTILITIES
yardeni.com
S&P 500 Sectors Stock Price Indexes
Page 8 / May 9, 2018 / S&P 500 Sectors Earnings, Revenues, & Valuation www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
Figure 8.
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
5/8
S&P 500(price index as percentage of 200-dma)
% from 200-dma (1.8)
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
5/8
INDUSTRIALS
(-0.7)
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
5/8
CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY
(6.5)
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
5/8
INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY
(8.4)
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19-30
-15
0
15
30
5/8
CONSUMER STAPLES
(-10.1)
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
5/8
MATERIALS
(-1.5)
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
5/8
ENERGY
(8.0)
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19-75
-50
-25
0
25
50
5/8
REAL ESTATE
(-2.8)
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
5/8
FINANCIALS
Includes Real Estatethrough September 2016
(1.6)
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19-40
-20
0
20
40
5/8
TELECOMMUNICATION SERVICES
(-8.6)
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19-30
-15
0
15
30
5/8
HEALTH CARE
(-3.0)
Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19-40
-20
0
20
40
5/8
UTILITIES
(-4.9) yardeni.com
S&P 500 Sectors Versus 200-Dma
Page 9 / May 9, 2018 / S&P 500 Sectors Earnings, Revenues, & Valuation www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
Figure 9.
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 1960
90
120
150
180210
17 18 19 5/3S&P 500(forward earnings*)
Annual consensusestimatesForward earnings
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 1913
19
25
31
3743
17 1819 5/3INDUSTRIALS
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 195
17
29
4153
17 18 19 5/3CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 1915
30
45
60
75
17 1819 5/3INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 1913
19
25
31
37
17 18 19 5/3CONSUMER STAPLES
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 196
11
16
21
2617
1819 5/3MATERIALS
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 198
28
48
6888
108
1718 19
5/3
ENERGY
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 191
3
5
79
19 5/317 18REAL ESTATE
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 198
20
32
4456
1819 5/3
17
FINANCIALS
Includes Real Estatethrough September 2016
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 197
9
11
13
15
17
17 1819
5/3TELECOMMUNICATIONS SERVICES
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 1920
35
50
65
80
17 18 19 5/3HEALTH CARE
* Time-weighted average (in blue) of consensus operating earnings estimates for current and next year (in red). Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 1911
12
13
14
15
161718
1718
19 5/3
UTILITIES
yardeni.com
S&P 500 Sectors Forward Earnings
Page 10 / May 9, 2018 / S&P 500 Sectors Earnings, Revenues, & Valuation www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
Figure 10.
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19800
950
1100
1250
1400
1550
17 1819 5/3
S&P 500(forward revenues*)
Annual consensusestimatesForward revenues
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19210
260
310
360
410
1718
19 5/3INDUSTRIALS
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19250
325
400
475
550
625
17
18 19 5/3CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19125
175
225
275
325
1718
19 5/3INFORMATI0N TECHNOLOGY
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19200
275
350
425
500
17 1819
5/3
CONSUMER STAPLES
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19160
180
200
220
240
17
18 195/3
MATERIALS
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19275
375
475
575
675
775
1718 19 5/3
ENERGY
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 1920
25
30
35
40
45
5/317 18
REAL ESTATE
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19120
160
200
240
280
18
19 5/3
17
FINANCIALS
Includes Real Estatethrough September 2016
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 1995
105
115
125
135
17 18
19 5/3
TELECOMMUNICATION SERVICES
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19175
275
375
475
575675
17 18 19 5/3HEALTH CARE
* Time-weighted average (in blue) of the current year’s and next year’s consensus revenues estimates (in red). Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19120
135
150
165
180
17
18 195/3
UTILITIES
yardeni.com
S&P 500 Sectors Forward Revenues
Page 11 / May 9, 2018 / S&P 500 Sectors Earnings, Revenues, & Valuation www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
Figure 11.
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 196
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
17 18 195/3S&P 500
(profit margin, percent)
AnnualForward* (12.2)
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 196
8
10
12
1718 19 5/3
INDUSTRIALS
(10.2)
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 191
3
5
7
9
11
1718 19 5/3
CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY
(8.2)
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 1910
15
20
25
17 18 195/3
INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY
(22.7)
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 195.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.517 18 19
5/3
CONSUMER STAPLES
(7.7)
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 194
6
8
10
12
14
1718
19 5/3
MATERIALS
(11.5)
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 190
3
6
9
12
15
17 18 19 5/3
ENERGY
(6.6)
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 196
9
12
15
18
21
24
5/317 18 19
REAL ESTATE
(16.1)
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 194
8
12
16
20
24
18 19 5/317
FINANCIALS
(18.6)
Includes Real Estatethrough September 2016
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 196
8
10
12
14
1718 19
5/3TELECOMMUNICATION SERVICES
(13.4)
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 199.5
10.0
10.5
11.0
11.5
12.0
17 18 19
5/3
HEALTH CARE
(10.5)
* Time-weighted average of the consensus estimates for current and next year. Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 198
9
10
11
12
13
17
18
195/3
UTILITIES
(12.3)yardeni.com
S&P 500 Sectors Forward Profit Margin
Page 12 / May 9, 2018 / S&P 500 Sectors Earnings, Revenues, & Valuation www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
Figure 12.
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 198
10
12
14
16
18
20
5/3
S&P 500(forward P/E) P/E (16.0)
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 198
11
14
17
20
23
5/3
INDUSTRIALS(15.7)
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 1910
15
20
25
30
5/3
CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY
(19.2)
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 198
12
16
20
24
5/3
INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY(17.5)
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 1910
12
14
16
18
20
22
5/3
CONSUMER STAPLES(16.2)
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 195
10
15
20
25
5/3
MATERIALS(15.5)
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 195
15
25
35
45
55
65
5/3
ENERGY(19.4)
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 1915
25
35
45
55
65
75
5/3
REAL ESTATE(37.4)
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 196
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
5/3
FINANCIALS
Includes Real Estatethrough September 2016
(12.5)
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 198
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
5/3
TELECOMMUNICATION SERVICES(10.0)
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 198
10
12
14
16
18
20
5/3
HEALTH CARE
Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S and Standard & Poor’s.
(14.7)
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 198
10
12
14
16
18
20
5/3
yardeni.com
UTILITIES(16.2)
S&P 500 Sectors Forward P/Es
Page 13 / May 9, 2018 / S&P 500 Sectors Earnings, Revenues, & Valuation www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
Figure 13.
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 198
10
12
14
16
18
20
5/3
S&P 500 P/E(forward P/E)
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19.6
.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
5/3
(relative forward P/Es by sector*)
(0.98)
INDUSTRIALS
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
5/3
CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY
(1.20)
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
5/3
(1.09)
INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
5/3
(1.01)
CONSUMER STAPLES
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19.75
1.00
1.25
1.50
1.75
5/3
(0.97)
MATERIALS
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
5/3
(1.21)
ENERGY
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 191
2
3
4
5
6
5/3
(2.33)
REAL ESTATE
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19.6
.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
5/3
(0.78)
FINANCIALS
Includes Real Estatethrough September 2016
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19.50
.75
1.00
1.25
1.50
1.75
5/3(0.62)
TELECOMMUNICATION SERVICES
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19.6
.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
5/3
(0.91)
HEALTH CARE
* Sector’s forward P/E divided by S&P 500 forward P/E. Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19.6
.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
5/3
yardeni.com(1.01)
UTILITIES
S&P 500 Sectors Relative Forward P/Es
Page 14 / May 9, 2018 / S&P 500 Sectors Earnings, Revenues, & Valuation www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
Figure 14.
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
5/3
S&P 500(forward P/S ratio)
P/S (1.95)
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19.50
.75
1.00
1.25
1.50
1.75
2.00
5/3
INDUSTRIALS(1.60)
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19.4
.7
1.0
1.3
1.6
1.9
5/3CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY
(1.58)
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 191.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5/3INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY
(3.96)
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19.6
.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
5/3
CONSUMER STAPLES(1.25)
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19.50
.75
1.00
1.25
1.50
1.75
2.00
2.25
5/3
MATERIALS(1.78)
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19.50
.75
1.00
1.25
1.50
1.75
5/3
ENERGY(1.29)
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 191
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
5/3
REAL ESTATE(6.03)
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
5/3
FINANCIALS
Includes Real Estatethrough September 2016
(2.32)
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19.75
1.00
1.25
1.50
1.75
2.00
5/3
TELECOMMUNICATION SERVICES(1.34)
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19.75
1.00
1.25
1.50
1.75
2.00
2.25
5/3
HEALTH CARE
Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S and Standard & Poor’s Corporation.
(1.54)
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19.50
.75
1.00
1.25
1.50
1.75
2.00
2.25
5/3
yardeni.com
UTILITIES(1.99)
S&P 500 Sectors Forward P/Sales
Page 15 / May 9, 2018 / S&P 500 Sectors Earnings, Revenues, & Valuation www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
Figure 15.
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 208250
8500
8750
9000
9250
9500
5/4
S&P 500
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 203000
3500
4000
4500
5000
5500
5/4
INDUSTRIALS
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 203000
4000
5000
6000
7000
5/4
CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 204000
4500
5000
5500
6000
5/4
INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 202000
3000
4000
5000
6000
5/4
CONSUMER STAPLES
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 201500
1700
1900
2100
2300
2500
5/4
MATERIALS
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 202400
2600
2800
3000
3200
3400
5/4
ENERGY
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20100
600
1100
1600
2100
2600
3100
36005/4REAL ESTATE
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 204000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
5/4
FINANCIALS
Includes Real Estatethrough September 2016
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 202250
2500
2750
3000
3250
3500
3750
5/4
TELECOMMUNICATION SERVICES
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 203000
3250
3500
3750
4000
4250
4500
5/4
HEALTH CARE
Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 201800
2000
2200
2400
26005/4UTILITIES
yardeni.com
S&P 500 Sectors Divisors
Page 16 / May 9, 2018 / S&P 500 Sectors Earnings, Revenues, & Valuation www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
Figure 16.
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 2130
60
90
120
150
1805/3S&P 500
(per share*)
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 215
15
25
35
45
5/3INDUSTRIALS
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 215
15
25
35
455/3CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 210
15
30
45
60
755/3INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 215
10
15
20
25
30
35
5/3CONSUMER STAPLES
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 215
10
15
20
255/3MATERIALS
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 210
20
40
60
80
5/3
ENERGY
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 2110
15
20
25
30
35
405/3REAL ESTATE
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 210
10
20
30
40
50
5/3
FINANCIALS
Includes Real Estatethrough September 2016
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 214
6
8
10
12
14
16
5/3TELECOMMUNICATION SERVICES
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 215
20
35
50
65
80
5/3HEALTH CARE
* Time-weighted average of current and next year’s consensus earnings estimates. Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 218
10
12
14
16
18
5/3UTILITIES
yardeni.com
S&P 500 Sectors Forward Earnings
Page 17 / May 9, 2018 / S&P 500 Sectors Earnings, Revenues, & Valuation www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
Figure 17.
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21-50
-30
-10
10
30
AprS&P 500
Net Earnings Revisions Index*NERI (13.9)
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21-50
-30
-10
10
30
50
Apr
INDUSTRIALS
(17.8)
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
Apr
CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY
(11.4)
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
Apr
INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY
(22.0)
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21-40
-20
0
20
40
Apr
CONSUMER STAPLES
(13.8)
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
Apr
MATERIALS
(16.9)
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
Apr
ENERGY
(14.2)
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21-45
-30
-15
0
15
30
Apr
REAL ESTATE
(-15.2)
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
Apr
FINANCIALS
Includes Real Estatethrough September 2016(11.2)
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21-40
-20
0
20
40
Apr
TELECOMMUNICATION SERVICES
(13.8)
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21-20
-10
0
10
20
30
Apr
HEALTH CARE
* Three-month moving average of the number of estimates up less number of estimates down, expressed as a percentage of the total number of estimates. Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.
(15.6)
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21-40
-20
0
20
40
Apr
UTILITIES
(0.8)
S&P 500 Sectors Net Earnings Revisions Index
Page 18 / May 9, 2018 / S&P 500 Sectors Earnings, Revenues, & Valuation www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
Figure 18.
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21-10
0
10
20
30
40
5/3
S&P 500(percent) STRG* (6.0)
STEG* (15.2)LTEG* (15.7)
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21-20
-10
0
10
20
30
5/3
INDUSTRIALS
(5.9)(16.1)(15.1)
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21-15
0
15
30
45
60
5/3
CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY(6.8)(15.7)(18.0)
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
5/3
INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY(8.7)(13.5)(15.3)
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 210
5
10
15
20
5/3
CONSUMER STAPLES(3.8)(9.9)(9.3)
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
5/3
MATERIALS (6.1)(17.2)(12.2)
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
5/3
ENERGYSTEG capped at 200%
(9.7)(42.1)(43.9)
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
5/3
REAL ESTATE
(7.3)(-6.6)(13.8)
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
5/3
FINANCIALS
STEG capped at 40%
Includes Real Estate through September 2016
(4.3)(20.5)(14.8)
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21-20
-10
0
10
20
30
5/3
TELECOMMUNICATION SERVICES
(1.0)(8.7)(5.0)
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 210
5
10
15
20
5/3
HEALTH CARE
(5.5)(11.0)(11.1)
* STRG & STEG: 12-month forward consensus expected growth. LTEG: 5-year forward consensus expected earnings growth. Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
5/3
UTILITIES (1.9)(5.4)(5.9)
yardeni.com
S&P 500 Sectors STRG, STEG & LTEG
Page 19 / May 9, 2018 / S&P 500 Sectors Earnings, Revenues, & Valuation www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
Figure 19.
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19.75
1.00
1.25
1.50
1.75
2.00
5/3
S&P 500(PEG ratio*)
(1.0)
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19.50
.75
1.00
1.25
1.50
1.75
2.00
2.25
5/3
INDUSTRIALS
(1.0)
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
5/3
CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY
(1.1)
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19.6
.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
5/3
INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY
(1.1)
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 191.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
5/3
CONSUMER STAPLES
(1.7)
20062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
5/3
MATERIALS(1.3)
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19.0
.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
5/3
ENERGY
(0.4)
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 191
3
5
7
9
11
13
5/3
REAL ESTATE
(2.7)
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19.50
.75
1.00
1.25
1.50
1.75
2.00
2.25
5/3
FINANCIALS
Includes Real Estatethrough September 2016
(0.8)
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19012345678
5/3
TELECOMMUNICATION SERVICES
(2.0)
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19.75
1.00
1.25
1.50
1.75
5/3
HEALTH CARE
(1.3)
* Sector’s forward P/E divided by sector’s consensus projected 5-year earnings growth rate. Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 191
3
5
7
9
5/3
UTILITIES
(2.7)
yardeni.com
S&P 500 Sectors PEG Ratio
Page 20 / May 9, 2018 / S&P 500 Sectors Earnings, Revenues, & Valuation www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
Figure 20.
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 192
4
6
8
10
12
14
Q4
S&P 500Operating Profit Margin*(trailing 4-quarter, %)
S&P 500 (10.1)
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 194
6
8
10
12
Q4
INDUSTRIALS
(8.9)
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 190
2
4
6
8
10
12
Q4
CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY
S&P 500 Sectors OperatingProfit Margins
(7.5)
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 190
5
10
15
20
25
Q4INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY
(20.2)
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 194
6
8
10
12
Q4
CONSUMER STAPLES
(6.7)
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 190
2
4
6
8
10
12
Q4MATERIALS
(9.4)
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19-8
-4
0
4
8
12
Q4
ENERGY
(3.9)
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 190
5
10
15
20
25
30
Q4
REAL ESTATE
(18.7)
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 194
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Q4
FINANCIALS
Includes Real Estatethrough Q2-2016
(13.7)
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 192
4
6
8
10
12
14
Q4
TELECOMMUNICATION SERVICES
(9.5)
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 194
6
8
10
12
14
16
Q4
HEALTH CARE
(8.7)
* Operating margin in percent and based on trailing 4-quarter EPS and sales. Source: Standard & Poor’s.
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 194
6
8
10
12Q4UTILITIES
(11.2)yardeni.com
S&P 500 Sectors Operating Profit Margin
Page 21 / May 9, 2018 / S&P 500 Sectors Earnings, Revenues, & Valuation www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
Figure 21.
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 204
6
8
10
12
14
5/2
Q4
S&P 500
Operating Profit Margin*Actual 4Q TrailingImplied Forward
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 206
7
8
9
10
11
Q4
5/2INDUSTRIALS
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 201
3
5
7
9
Q45/2CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY
S&P 500 SectorsForecasted & Actual Profit Margins
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 205
10
15
20
25
Q45/2INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 205.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
Q4
5/2
CONSUMER STAPLES
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 200
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Q4
5/2MATERIALS
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20-8
-4
0
4
8
12
16
Q45/2
ENERGY
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 205
10
15
20
25
30
5/2Q4
REAL ESTATE
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 205
10
15
20
Q4
5/2FINANCIALS
Includes Real Estatethrough Q2-2016
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 202
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Q4
5/2TELECOMMUNICATION SERVICES
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 207
8
9
10
11
12
Q4
5/2
HEALTH CARE
* Actual from S&P based on trailing 4-quarter EPS and sales. Forecast implied from Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S consensus forward EPS and sales, and pushed one year ahead. Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation (trailing 4-quarter margin) and Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S (forward margin).
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 208
9
10
11
12
13
Q4
5/2
yardeni.com
UTILITIES
S&P 500 Sectors Forecasted & Actual Profit Margins
Page 22 / May 9, 2018 / S&P 500 Sectors Earnings, Revenues, & Valuation www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
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