PECHAN

2018 SO2 Emissions Evaluation for Non-Utility Sources

Jim Wilson and Andy BollmanE.H. Pechan & Associates, Inc.

Presentation to WRAP Stationary Sources Joint Forum Meeting

August 2006

E.H. Pechan & Associates, Inc.

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Presentation Outline

Study Purpose Methods Summary Sector-by-Sector Analysis Overall Results Findings

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Study Purpose

Update the SO2 emission milestones for the 309 States

Non-utility source focus Milestone sources >100 tpy SO2 in

2004 at the facility-level

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Methods Summary

Starting point – 2018 SSJF-sponsored emission projections

MS Excel files posted on SSJF/ projections site» 2002 emissions» Growth and control factors» Equation to estimate 2018 emissions

Revised base year emissions to 2004 values where needed

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Methods Summary (Part 2)

Revised SO2 emissions and algorithms

Consulted with States/sources Evaluated economic basis for growth

factors Industry consultations Revisions made

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Sectors Versus States

  States

Sectors Arizona New Mexico Oregon Utah Wyoming

Copper smelters x x x

Lime Manufacturing x x

Pulp/paper x x

Oil/gas x x x

Chemicals x

Refining x x x

Cement x x   x x

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Copper Smelter SO2

Emission Projections

State Facility Name 20022018

ERG

2018

Pechan

Arizona ASARCO-Hayden 18,438 34,490 21,000

Phelps Dodge-Miami 6,804 9,848 10,000

Utah Kennecott Utah 939 1,690 1,000

Total 26,181 46,028 32,000

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Petroleum Refining

Retirement/replacement algorithm for SO2 only affects FCCU and industrial boiler emissions

FCCU emissions not represented for 7 of 11 refineries

Pechan allocated SO2 emissions to FCCUs and revised projections

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Oil and Gas Production

Issue 1: Volatility in 2002-2004 SO2 emissions» Solution: Data review – industry

consultation – information exchanges Issue 2: Regional – State – Sub-state

allocation of expected activity growth

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Oil and Gas ProductionEmissions Volatility

393 633 704 861

475

1,228

1,705

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

2002 2003 2004 2005

Year

SO

2 E

mis

sio

ns

Routine Releases Upsets

Example: Dynegy Eunice Gas Plant (NM)

Permit Limit (1,226 tpy)

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Emission Activity Projections

Emission Process Specific

» Fuel Combustion – improve upon Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) sector specificity

» Non-Fuel Combustion – replace industry sector $ sales forecasts with forecast of emission activity

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Non-Fuel Combustion

Petroleum Refineries

» Previous – Total Petroleum Products Supply (national)

» New – no change (stakeholder dialogue on validity of AEO regional refining capacity forecasts)

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Non-Fuel Combustion (cont’d)

Oil and Gas Production

» Previous – when available, local new well forecast from Resource Management Plans (RMPs) combined with historic well closure rate; otherwise, regional AEO projections

» New – RMP-based projections replaced with AEO growth (milestone sources only)

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Non-Fuel Combustion (cont’d)

Pulp and Paper

» Previous – forecast state-level $ sales in Pulp, Paper, and Paperboard Mills sector

» New – U.S. Forest Service forecast of pulpwood receipts at West region Pulp mills

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Non-Fuel Combustion (cont’d)

Chemicals (Phosphate Fertilizer)» Previous – SCC specific (e.g., $ sales in

Concrete, Gypsum, and Plaster Products sector)

» New – no growth assumption reflecting phosphate rock production info

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Non-Fuel Combustion (cont’d)

Cement Manufacturing

» Previous – equation relating total $ sales to national cement production

» New – national cement production forecast (Portland Cement Assoc) and Pechan regional prodn. share forecast

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Fuel Combustion

Previous Approach» SCC-specific growth indicators from

EGAS (AEO energy forecasts). Major limitation is inventory SCC is often generic Industrial, Commercial, or Electric Utility fuel combustion

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Fuel Combustion (cont’d)

New Approach» Composite of non-fuel combustion

growth and AEO projected change in fuel consumption per $ of facility sector output

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State-Level Emission Comparisons

StateBase Year Emissions

2018Emissions

(ERG)

2018 Emissions (Pechan)

Arizona 27,970 47,170 33,814

New Mexico 17,837 21,119 21,965

Oregon 5,301 5,979 4,503

Utah 9,597 10,176 9,314

Wyoming 37,847 45,685 42,868

5 State Total 98,551 130,129 112,464

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Sector-Level Emission Comparisons

SectorBase Year Emissions

2018 Emissions (ERG)

2018 Emissions (Pechan)

Combined Heat & Power 3,801 2,620 2,620

Copper 26,181 46,028 32,000

Wood/Paper/Pulp 5,897 6,247 4,708

Cement 642 909 937

Chemicals/Plastics 2,015 3,129 2,015

Oil and Gas 32,900 45,529 46,574

Refining 13,222 14,308 12,099

Food 813 595 595

Glass 109 180 180

Metals/Mining/Minerals 11,780 9,289 9,442

Miscellaneous 1,189 1,294 1,294

Subtotal 98,551 130,129 112,464

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Findings

Base year data issues New vs. existing source SO2 rates for non-

boilers or FCCUs Refinery capacity expansion uncertainty Oil and gas

» Upset emissions importance» Calibration of activity growth to regional

forecasts