peoria project report 4: kasich rising

KASICH RISING (AND OTHER HIGHLIGHTS OF THE PRESIDENTIAL DEBATE CONVERSATION)

ASSOCIATE PROFESSOR MICHAEL CORNFIELD, ASSOCIATE PROFESSOR LARA BROWN, AND DATA SCIENTIST JAMIE CHANDLER

RELEASE DATE: NOVEMBER 9, 2015

Using Zignal Labs’ platform, GSPM tracks the mainstream and social media echoes of

the presidential candidates and their campaign messages.

PART ONE

Presidential Debate Chatter

Candidates(Descending order)

Total MentionsSept. 21 – Nov. 1

All Current Candidates

(share of voice, in %)

Republicans Only (share of voice,

in %)

Donald Trump 9,096,900 35.6 54.0Hillary Clinton 4,660,264 18.2 --Bernie Sanders 3,891,131 15.2 --Ben Carson 1,913,895 7.5 11.4Ted Cruz 1,555,251 6.1 9.2Jeb Bush 1,299,325 5.1 7.7Marco Rubio 917,575 3.6 5.4John Kasich 409,393 1.6 2.4Mike Huckabee 332,727 1.3 2.0Chris Christie 327,396 1.3 1.9Carly Fiorina 266,054 1.0 1.6Rand Paul 263,416 1.0 1.6Martin O’Malley 156,255 0.6 --Lindsey Graham 142,727 0.6 0.8Bobby Jindal 137,574 0.5 0.8Rick Santorum 131,420 0.5 0.8George Pataki 43,045 0.2 0.3

CONVERSATION LEADERS

Note: Omitted candidates who dropped from the nomination contests (i.e., Perry, Walker, Webb, and Chafee).

TRUMP STILL DOMINATES

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

All Candidates Share of Voice (%)September 21 - November 1, 2015

CLINTON & TRUMP?

54%

11%

9%

8%

5%

2%2%

2%2% 2%1%1%1%0%

Share of Republican Voice (%)September 21 - November 1, 2015

Trump Carson Cruz Bush Rubio Kasich Huckabee

Christie Fiorina Paul Graham Jindal Santorum Pataki

46%

39%

2%

4%

2%

7%

Share of Democratic Voice (%)September 21 - November 1, 2015

Clinton Sanders O'Malley Webb Chafee Biden*

Note: In this and many of the following analyses, we added Biden into the Democratic field because his potential candidacy was a much discussed possibility.

DEMOCRATIC TIME SERIES


DEMOCRATIC CONVERSATION

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

1,600,000

1,800,000


Total Mentions Before DebateSeptember 21 - October 12, 2015

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

3,500,000


Total Mentions During/After DebateOctober 13 - November 1, 2015

DEMOCRATIC NET SENTIMENT

-75

-50

-25

0

25

50

75


Net Sentiment of Democratic Candidates Mentions (%)

Pre-Debate Net Sentiment (9/21-10/12) Post-Debate Net Sentiment (10/13-11/1)

Note: Net sentiment is measured as the percentage of positive mentions minus the percentage of negative mentions (similar to “net approval” or “net favorability”). Still, NLP does not capture sentiment all that indiscriminately. As such, sarcasm (“that’s sick”), disappointment (“that sucks”), or even descriptive facts (“drops out”) may be included in the mentions count. Net sentiment should, therefore, be seen as a directional and relational indicator rather than an absolute measure.

REPUBLICAN TIME SERIES


REPUBLICAN CONVERSATION

0

250,000

500,000

750,000

1,000,000

1,250,000

1,500,000

1,750,000

Total Mentions Before DebateSeptember 21 - October 27, 2015

Undercard Debaters

0

75,000

150,000

225,000

300,000

375,000

450,000

Total Mentions During/After DebateOctober 28 - November 1, 2015

Undercard Debaters

“Off the Chart”

Total Mentions

Sept. 21 – Oct. 27

Total MentionsOct. 28 –

Nov. 1

Donald Trump 8,068,885 1,028,015

REPUBLICAN NET SENTIMENT

-75

-50

-25

0

25

50

75

Net Sentiment of Republican Candidates Mentions (%)

Pre-Debate Net Sentiment (9/21-10/27) Post-Debate Net Sentiment (10/28-11/1)

Undercard Debaters

DEMOCRATS: WHO IS TALKING ABOUT WHOM?

Candidates Mainstream Media

Sept. 21 – Nov. 1

Social Media

Sept. 21 –

Nov. 1

Hillary Clinton 511,865 4,148,399

Bernie Sanders 249,741 3,641,490

Martin O’Malley 71,707 84,548

Jim Webb 54,482 365,885

Lincoln Chafee 47,796 183,466

Joe Biden* 212,240 520,748

0

750,000

1,500,000

2,250,000

3,000,000

3,750,000

4,500,000


Tota

l Men

tions

Total Media MentionsSeptember 21 - November 1, 2015

Mainstream Media Social Media


45%

22%

6%

5%

4%

18%

Mainstream Media SOV (%)September 21 - November 1, 2015


46%

41%

1%4%

2%6%

Social Media SOV (%)September 21 - November 1, 2015



0

250,000

500,000

750,000

1,000,000

1,250,000

1,500,000


Tota

l Men

tions

Media Mentions Before DebateSeptember 21 - October 12, 2015


0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000


Tota

l Men

tions

Media Mentions During/After DebateOctober 13 - November 1, 2015


REPUBLICANS: WHO IS TALKING ABOUT WHOM?

Candidates Mainstream Media

Sept. 21 – Nov. 1

Social Media

Sept. 21 – Nov. 1

Donald Trump 502,686 8,594,221

Ben Carson 224,731 1,689,170

Jeb Bush 198,198 1,101,138

Marco Rubio 149,926 767,662

Ted Cruz 108,506 1,446,749

Carly Fiorina 90,061 175,993

Chris Christie 78,952 248,453

John Kasich 59,578 349,813

Rand Paul 58,700 204,722

Mike Huckabee 43,637 289,093

Lindsey Graham 38,843 35,511

Bobby Jindal 17,005 33,440

Rick Santorum 31,779 20,689

George Pataki 6,858 13,594

0

250,000

500,000

750,000

1,000,000

1,250,000

1,500,000

1,750,000

Tota

l Men

tions

Total Media MentionsSeptember 21 - November 1, 2015


Trump: Off the chart again .

Undercard Debaters


33%

15%13%

10%

7%

6%

5%

4%4% 3%

Mainstream Media SOV (%)September 21 - November 1, 2015

Trump Carson Bush Rubio Cruz

Fiorina Christie Kasich Paul Huckabee

58%

11%

8%

5%

10%

1%2%2%1%2%

Social Media SOV (%)September 21 - November 1, 2015

Trump Carson Bush Rubio Cruz

Fiorina Christie Kasich Paul Huckabee


0

250,000

500,000

750,000

1,000,000

1,250,000

1,500,000

Tota

l Men

tions

Media Mentions Before DebateSeptember 21 - October 27, 2015


0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

Tota

l Men

tions

Media Mentions During/After DebateOctober 28 - November 1, 2015


Undercard Debaters

Undercard Debaters

“Off the Charts”

Mainstream Media

Sept. 21 – Oct. 27

Social Media

Sept. 21 – Oct. 27

Mainstream Media

Oct. 28 – Nov. 1

Social Media

Oct. 28 – Nov. 1

Donald Trump 435,134 7,633,758 67,552 960,463

THE WEEK THAT WAS FOR THE DEMOCRATS

52%

28%

14%

1%3% 2%

Democratic Share of Voice (%)October 19 - 25, 2015

Clinton Sanders Biden O'Malley Webb Chafee

THE WEEK THAT WAS FOR THE DEMOCRATS

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

Website Shares Top Campaign Tweet (RT)

Social Media During the WeekOctober 19 - October 25, 2015

Clinton Sanders

CLINTON’S TOP 3 TWEETS DURING HEARINGS

1,687 Retweets 659 Retweets 445 Retweets

TOP GOP RESPONSES TO BENGHAZI HEARINGS

#1#3

Jeb Bush92 Retweets

#1#1

Donald Trump1,489 Retweets

#1#5

Chris Christie22 Retweets

#1#2

Mike Huckabee130 Retweets

#1#4

Rand Paul70 Retweets

PART TWO

Social media activity by the candidates and their

campaigns during the conservational events of

the period.

TRUMP ON TOP?ECHO CONVERSION RATES

Candidates (in descending order)

Echo Conversion (total number of website shares/total number of social media mentions, measured in % for Sept.21-Nov.1, 2015)

Cruz 13.8

Kasich 8.5

Fiorina 5.3

Clinton 1.6

Paul 1.5

Sanders 1.0

O'Malley 1.0

Huckabee 0.8

Rubio 0.8

Carson 0.6

Bush 0.5

Christie 0.08

Trump 0.05

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

3,500,000

4,000,000

4,500,000

Social Media Mentions & Website SharesSeptember 21 - November 1, 2015

Social Media Mentions Website Shares

Again, Trump is “off the chart.” His social media mentions were over 8.5M, but his website shares were 4,517 – he comes in last on this measure.

DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATES

SOCIAL MEDIA ACTIVITY

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

Clinton Sanders O'Malley Webb Chafee

Social Media Before DebateSeptember 21 - October 12, 2015

Website Shares Top Campaign Tweet (RTs)

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

Clinton Sanders O'Malley Webb Chafee

Social Media During/Post DebateOctober 13 - November 1, 2015


CNN DEBATE: DEMOCRATS TOP RESPONSES (10/13-10/14)

#1Bernie

Sanders4,570

Retweets

#1#2

Hillary Clinton3,109

Retweets

#1#3

Martin O’Malley

136 Retweets

#4Jim Webb

69 Retweets

#5Lincoln Chafee69 Retweets

HUCKABEE LIVE-TROLLS DEMOCRATIC DEBATE

TOP 3 RETWEETED GOP RESPONSES (10/13-10/14)

#2Donald Trump5,759

Retweets

#1Donald Trump17,378

Retweets

#3Donald Trump4,699

Retweets

REPUBLICAN CANDIDATES SOCIAL MEDIA ACTIVITY

0

40,000

80,000

120,000

160,000

200,000

Social Media Before DebateSeptember 21 - October 27, 2015


0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

Social Media During/Post DebateOctober 28 - November 1, 2015


KASICH WORKS HIS NETWORK

CNBC DEBATE: REPUBLICANS TOP RESPONSES (10/28-10/29)

#1#1

Donald Trump3,215

Retweets#1

#3Ben Carson

2,019 Retweets

#1#4

Ted Cruz1,585

Retweets

#1#2

Marco Rubio3,103

Retweets

#1#5

Jeb Bush1,422

Retweets

#1#10

John Kasich85 Retweets

#1#9

Mike Huckabee

156 Retweets

#1#8

Chris Christie

357 Retweets

#1#7

Carly Fiorina432

Retweets

#1#6

Rand Paul691

Retweets

CNBC DEBATE: REPUBLICANS TOP RESPONSES (10/28-10/29)

#1Hillary Clinton

4,097 Retweets

#1#2

Bernie Sanders3,396

Retweets

#1#3

Hillary Clinton3,393

Retweets

TOP 3 RETWEETED DEMOCRATS RESPONSES (10/28-10/29)

QUESTIONS?Graduate School of Political Management

@GSPMGWUJohn BrandtMedia [email protected]

Michael Cornfield Lara BrownAssociate Professor Associate [email protected]

[email protected]

Zignal Labs @ZignalLabs

Pete Eskew D.J. WaldowHead of East Coast Sales Director of [email protected] [email protected]

peoria project report 4: kasich rising

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