perspectives for renewable energy in the danish...

PERSPECTIVES FOR RENEWABLEENERGY IN THE DANISH ENERGY SYSTEM

CITIES Workshop: Integration of prosumer buildings in energy systems

Lyngby – DTU, 06-04-2018CITIES Workshop: Integration of prosumer buildings in energy systems 1

Henrik Thomsen, Energy Analyst, [email protected]

NEW ANALYSIS: SYSTEM PERSPECTIVE 2035


Long-term scenario analyses across energy systems

Why long-term analyses for the entire energy system?

• Ensure efficient operation and dimensioning of the el- and gas transmission system

• Contribute to an efficient green energy transition towards 2050

Link to System Perspective 2035: www.energinet.dk/sys35

http://www.energinet.dk/sys35

INTEGRATION OF +50% RENEWABLE ENERGY


Instruments

El-integration over distances: Grid expansion

1. El-integration with Nordic hydro power

2. El-integration between NW Europe and Eastern Europe

El-integration over time: Elec. To elec. storage

3. Elec. Storages (e.g. batteries, CAES etc.)

El-integration – El as end consumption

4. Electricity to heat and thermalstorages

5. Electricity for transport

6. Electricity for high-value products (elektrolysis/PtG/PtX)

Conversion of electricity for other purposes - electrification

STRUCTURE OF THE ANALYSIS


Part 1: International Energy Scenarios

Part 2: System Perspectives for Denmark

Part 4: Research, Development, Demonstration and Innovation (R&I)

Part 3: Positive interaction between central and distributed

solutions

APPLIED EUROPEAN ENERGY SCENARIOS


GCA-scenario (Global Climate Action)

• "On track" with EU climate targets

• Strong international, green cooperation and regulation

• Moderate oil price – very high CO2-price (IEA 450 PPM)

• 50 pct. electricity from wind and sun in Europe in 2040

DG-scenario (Distributed Generation)

• “(On track)" with EU climate targets

• A very high use of distributed solutions (solar/batteries)

• High oil price (IEA New Policy) – high CO2-price

• 50 pct. electricity from wind and sun in Europe in 2040

ST-scenario (Sustainable Transition)

• “Not on track (but almost)" with EU climate targets

• Low oil and natural gas prices

• Moderate CO2-price(IEA Low Oil price scenario)

Green Methanol today

Methanol today

MUCH MORE WIND & SOLAR POWER IN ALL SCENARIOS


12% 15% 17% 17% 19% 22%3%

6%8% 7%

10%13%

4%

8%10%

19% 14%

18%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

2020* ST30 ST35 DG35 GCA35 GCA40

Sol (PV)

Havvind

Landvind

Vind og sol. Andel af elforbrug (Europa)

15%20% 21% 20% 21% 22%

8%

19%24% 22%

26%32%

6%

10%

11% 17%15%

19%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

2020* ST30 ST35 DG35 GCA35 GCA40

Sol (PV)

Havvind

Landvind

Vind og sol. Andel af elforbrug (DE, UK, NL, DK)Wind & Solar power - Share of consumption (Europe) Wind & Solar power - Share of consumption (DE, UK, NL, DK)

Onshore WInd

Offshore WInd

Solar (PV)

Onshore WInd

Offshore WInd

Solar (PV)

*2020: Energinet Analyseforudsætninger 2017

DENMARK AFTER 2030


More hours with low and high electricity prices

NORTH SEA REGION SYSTEM BALANCING


• Need for hour/daily balancing for wind/solar fluctuations

• Need for ancillery services incl. Inertia to operate withoutthermal units

• Need for strong grid and sector-coupling to integrate RE in longer periods with high wind/solar production

SECTOR COUPLING TO GET ACCESS TO LOW COST STORAGE CAPACITY

9

Power system

Gas SystemGas

Storage(NG/SNG)

District Heating SystemHeat storage

Lyngby – DTU, 06-04-2018CITIES Workshop: Integration of prosumer buildings in energy systems

0100200300400500600700

Invest.omk.energidel

(DKK/kWh)

Investment cost energy storage part(excl input/output units)Battery

Gas Storage

(H2)

• Battery storage is essential for hourly balancing– but too expensive for large scale storage

• Sector coupling to gas and heat can deliver more cost effective large scalestorage

• Essential to analyse cost effective sector couplings!

“For all the growth in battery installations that BNEF is forecasting, the total volume of grid-connected batteries by 2030 will be sufficient to meet the world’s power needs for just 7,5 minutes” Michael Liebreich, Bloomberg New Energy Finance, March, 2018

Sectorcoupling


EFFICIENT RELATION BETWEEN AND CO-EXISTENCEOF LARGE SCALE- AND DISTRIBUTED SOLUTIONS

ANALYSIS OF DISTRIBUTED RESOURCES


's''s'

ANALYSIS OF INVESTMENTS IN DISTRIBUTED RESOURCES


12

LCOE – Wind and PV

Estimated price: Lithium-ion battery (excl. Installation)

INVESTMENTS IN DISTRIBUTED RESOURCES


13

http://www.google.dk/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwjTo5fI1PnRAhUGGZoKHb5rBkMQjRwIBw&url=http://kuafu.dk/produkter/solcelle-anlaeg/&psig=AFQjCNHbqZxEusN5PkiIxoIx8E63wgl3xw&ust=1486408267304929












INVESTMENTS IN DISTRIBUTED RESOURCES


14

H.1 H.2 H.3 H.4 H.5 H.6 H.7 H.8 H.9 H.10

Annual cons., classic el (MWh) 4.7 3.1 3.1 4.1 4.4 4.8 5.00 5.3 5.6 5.6

Annual cons., EV (MWh) 5.2 0 7.0 5.2 5.2 5.2 3.0 3.0 5.2 5.2

Battery size, EV (kWh) 80 0 80 80 80 80 40 80 40 80

EV charging profile CP1 0 CP1 CP1 CP1 CP1 CP2 CP2 CP2 CP2

Invest PV capacity (kW) 12,0 5,1 12,0 12,0 12,0 12,0 11,7 11,1 12,0 12,0

Invested battery storage (kWh) 23,3 9,2 25,9 24,1 23,9 24,9 12,9 11,2 12,9 13,8

• Investering i distribueret produktion og lagring (solceller og batterier) analyseret

•The model typically investing in 12 kW PV and 15-25 kWh battery storage

•The prosumer becomes net-exporter of electricity

•Total off-grid solutions does not seem economically attractive. Not even if the price for PV and batteriesdecline further.

Assumed available power:• 4 kW uptake per house• 2 kW feed-in per house













OPERATION OF SMALL PROSUMERSIN THE 2030 CASE

CITIES Workshop: Integration of prosumer buildings in energy systems

15

•Large surplus of electricity during the summer.

•”Storage” from the system: approx. 4 MWh

•Needed storage during winter: 1-1.5 MWh

•Congestions in the electricity network canoccur at times with high PV production or at times with simultaneously charging EV’s (at large power draws from the net)

Lyngby – DTU, 06-04-2018

Assumed available power:• 4 kW uptake per house• 2 kW feed-in per house

EFFECT OF PV/BATTERY DEVELOPMENT ON SYSTEM


What is break even for off grid and how does it influence the grid and solutions based on offshore wind power?

.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

120.0

140.0

160.0

12

59

51

77

75

10

33

12

91

15

49

18

07

20

65

23

23

25

81

28

39

30

97

33

55

36

13

38

71

41

29

43

87

46

45

49

03

51

61

54

19

56

77

59

35

61

93

64

51

67

09

69

67

72

25

74

83

77

41

79

99

82

57

85

15

EUR

/MW

h

DG

DG+


Reduction of batt prices (1/2, ¼, …) at fixed PV prices

SUMMING UP


European Agenda sets a framework

• ENTSO-E/G show significant increase of wind/solar in NS-region in al scenariosMore than 50% RE => Need for sector coupling

Electrification and sector coupling are essential

• A strong power grid is needed

• Sector coupling to the gas, heat, fuel and transport sector is essential for integration of RE

• Large scale solutions (offshore wind, stronggrid, PtG/PtX) can co-exist with distributedsolutions (prosumers: PV, battery)

Prosumer analysis

• Investing in around 12 kW PV and 9-26 kWh battery

• With changing prices for PV/batteries the investment changes => if DK neighbours doesthe same (lower prices), the driver for PV/batt investments is lower

• Total off-grid solutions does not seemeconomically attractive. Not even if the price for PV and batteries decline further.

www.energinet.dk/sys35

THANK YOU FOR THE ATTENTION

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