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Discipline Opportunity Strategy January 25, 2008 January 25, 2008 Peters and Co. Limited Energy Conference Peters and Co. Limited Energy Conference

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Page 1: Peters and Co. Limited Energy Conference CNQ 20080125.pdf · Peters and Co. Limited Energy Conference. 2 CNQ 2 Certain statements in this document or documents incorporated herein

Discipline

Opportunity

Strategy

January 25, 2008January 25, 2008

Peters and Co. Limited Energy ConferencePeters and Co. Limited Energy Conference

Page 2: Peters and Co. Limited Energy Conference CNQ 20080125.pdf · Peters and Co. Limited Energy Conference. 2 CNQ 2 Certain statements in this document or documents incorporated herein

2

CNQ2

Certain statements in this document or documents incorporated herein by reference for Canadian Natural Resources Limited (the “Company”) constitute “forward-looking statements” within the meaning of the United States Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These forward-looking statements can generally be identified as such because of the context of the statements including words such as the Company “believes”, “anticipates”, “expects”, “plans”, “estimates”, ”targets”, or words of a similar nature. The forward-looking statements are based on current expectations and are subject to known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors that may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of the Company, or industry results, to be materially different from any future results, performance or achievements expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements. Such factors include, among others: general economic and business conditions which will, among other things, impact demand for and market prices of the Company’s products; foreign currency exchange rates; economic conditions in the countries and regions in which the Company conducts business; political uncertainty, including actions of or against terrorists, insurgent groups or other conflict including conflict between states; industry capacity; ability of the Company to implement its business strategy, including exploration and development activities; impact of competition; availability and cost of seismic, drilling and other equipment; ability of the Company to complete its capital programs; ability of the Company to transport its products to market; potential delays or changes in plans with respect to exploration or development projects or capital expenditures; ability of the Company to attract the necessary labour required to build its projects; operating hazards and other difficulties inherent in the exploration for and production and sale of crude oil and natural gas; availability and cost of financing; success of exploration and development activities; timing and success of integrating the business and operations of acquired companies; production levels; uncertainty of reserve estimates; actions by governmental authorities; government regulations and the expenditures required to comply with them (especially safety and environmental laws and regulations); asset retirement obligations; and other circumstances affecting revenues and expenses. Our domestic operations are subject to governmental risks that may impact our operations. Our domestic operations have been, and at times in the future may be affected by political developments and by federal, provincial and local laws and regulations such as restrictions on production, changes in taxes, royalties and other amounts payable to governments or governmental agencies, price or gathering rate controls and environmental protection regulations. The impact of any one factor on a particular forward-looking statement is not determinable with certainty as such factors are interdependent upon other factors, and the Company’s course of action would depend upon its assessment of the future considering all information then available. Statements relating to “reserves” are deemed to be forward-looking statements as they involve the implied assessment based on certain estimates and assumptions that the reserves described can be profitably produced in the future. Readers are cautioned that the foregoing list of important factors is not exhaustive. Although the Company believes that the expectations conveyed by the forward-looking statements are reasonable based on information available to it on the date such forward-looking statements are made, no assurances can be given as to future results, levels of activity and achievements. All subsequent forward-looking statements, whether written or oral, attributable to the Company or persons acting on its behalf are expressly qualified in their entirety by these cautionary statements. Except as required by law, the Company assumes no obligation to update forward-looking statements should circumstances or Management’s estimatesor opinions change.

Forward Looking StatementsForward Looking Statements

Page 3: Peters and Co. Limited Energy Conference CNQ 20080125.pdf · Peters and Co. Limited Energy Conference. 2 CNQ 2 Certain statements in this document or documents incorporated herein

3

CNQ3

Special Note Regarding Currency, Production and Reserves

In this document, all references to dollars refer to Canadian dollars unless otherwise stated. Production data is presented on a before royalties basis unless otherwise stated. In addition, reference is made to oil and gas in common units called barrel of oil equivalent (“boe”). A boe is derived by converting six thousand cubic feet of natural gas to one barrel of crude oil (6 mcf:1 bbl). This conversion may be misleading, particularly if used in isolation, since the 6mcf:1bbl ratio is based on an energy equivalency at the burner tip and does not represent the value equivalency at the well head.Canadian Natural retains qualified independent reserve evaluators to evaluate 100% of the Company’s conventional proved, as well as proved and probable crude oil, natural gas liquids and natural gas reserves and prepare Evaluation Reports on these reserves. Canadian Natural has been granted an exemption from National Instrument 51-101 – Standards of Disclosure for Oil and Gas Activities (“NI 51-101”), which prescribes the standards for the preparation and disclosure of reserves and related information for companies listed in Canada. This exemption allows the Company to substitute United States Security and Exchange Commission (“SEC”) requirements for certain disclosures required under NI 51-101. There are three principal differences between the two standards. The first is the requirement under NI 51-101 to disclose both proved, and proved and probable reserves, as well as the related net present value of future net revenues using forecast prices and costs. The second is in the definition of proved reserves; however, as discussed in the Canadian Oil and Gas Evaluation Handbook (“COGEH”), the standards that NI 51-101 employs, the difference in estimated proved reserves based on constant pricing and costs between the two standards is not material. The third is the requirement to disclose a gross reserve reconciliation (before the consideration of royalties). Canadian Natural discloses its reserve reconciliation net of royalties in adherence to SEC requirements.

The Company has disclosed proved conventional reserves and the Standardized Measure of discounted future net cash flows using year-end constant prices and costs as mandated by the SEC. The Company has elected to provide the net present value of these same conventional proved reserves as well as its conventional proved and probable reserves and the net present value of these reserves under the same parameters as additional voluntary information. In addition to the constant price and cost scenario, Canadian Natural has also elected to provide both proved, and proved and probable conventional reserves and the net present value of these reserves using forecast prices and costs as voluntary additional information.

Conventional reserves and net present values of these reserves presented for years prior to 2003 were evaluated in accordance with the standards of National Policy 2-B which has now been replaced by NI 51-101. The stated reserves were reasonably evaluated as economically productive using year-end costs and prices escalated at appropriate rates throughout the productive life of the properties.

Canadian Natural’s independent reserve evaluators utilize the proved conventional reserve definition as prescribed by SEC in Regulation S-X 210.4-10 and the conventional proved and probable reserves definitions as prescribed under NI 51-101 in COGEH. Mining reserves are evaluated as prescribed in SEC Industry Guide 7. Internal estimates of Contingent Resources also utilize the definitions as prescribed under NI 51-101 in COGEH.

Special Note Regarding non-GAAP Financial Measures

Management's discussion and analysis includes references to financial measures commonly used in the oil and gas industry, such as cash flow, cash flow per share and EBITDA (net earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation depletion and amortization, asset retirement obligation accretion, unrealized foreign exchange, stock-based compensation expense and unrealized risk management activity). These financial measures are not defined by generally accepted accounting principles (“GAAP”) and therefore are referred to as non-GAAP measures. The non-GAAP measures used by the Company may not be comparable to similar measures presented by other companies. The Company uses these non-GAAP measures to evaluate the performance of the Company and of its business segments. The non-GAAP measures should not be considered an alternative to or more meaningful than net earnings, as determined in accordance with Canadian GAAP, as an indication of the Company's performance.

Volumes shown are Company share before royalties unless otherwise stated.

Reporting DisclosuresReporting Disclosures

Page 4: Peters and Co. Limited Energy Conference CNQ 20080125.pdf · Peters and Co. Limited Energy Conference. 2 CNQ 2 Certain statements in this document or documents incorporated herein

4

CNQ4

Technology Application in Thermal OperationsTechnology Application in Thermal Operations

Approach to New Technology Development and Use

Examples of Applications in Primrose/Wolf Lake• Application to Facilities Issues

• Application to Drilling Issues

• Application to Reservoir Processes

Conclusions

Page 5: Peters and Co. Limited Energy Conference CNQ 20080125.pdf · Peters and Co. Limited Energy Conference. 2 CNQ 2 Certain statements in this document or documents incorporated herein

5

CNQ5

Approach to New Thermal TechnologyApproach to New Thermal TechnologyCanadian Natural’s thermal recovery is driven by technology and our expertiseR&D only when existing technology cannot solve problemShare R&D costs with others (JIPs, PTRC, ACII etc.) Balance risk of new technology with potential benefit• Avoid being “First” user• Pilot newer processes to ensure applicability and upsideUse proven technology whenever available• Public domain technology, tried and shown effective • “Borrow” from elsewhere in oil/gas industry (eg. offshore)• “Borrow” from other industries • Use suppliers to modify existing technology to suit usSearch for solutions to problems• Applications for new technology

Page 6: Peters and Co. Limited Energy Conference CNQ 20080125.pdf · Peters and Co. Limited Energy Conference. 2 CNQ 2 Certain statements in this document or documents incorporated herein

6

CNQ6

New Technology Must Address FundamentalsNew Technology Must Address Fundamentals

Maximize Value:• Decrease capital costs

• Decrease operating costs

• Increase reserves and recovery

• Increase production volumes

Page 7: Peters and Co. Limited Energy Conference CNQ 20080125.pdf · Peters and Co. Limited Energy Conference. 2 CNQ 2 Certain statements in this document or documents incorporated herein

7

CNQ7

Facilities and Operations IssuesFacilities and Operations Issues

Facilities and operations issues:• Distribution of steam

(heat conservation, multiphase, large distances)

• Gathering of produced fluids (multiphase, inconsistent, hot, distances)

• Processing of produced fluids

• Water and steam generation

Page 8: Peters and Co. Limited Energy Conference CNQ 20080125.pdf · Peters and Co. Limited Energy Conference. 2 CNQ 2 Certain statements in this document or documents incorporated herein

8

CNQ8

Facilities –Produced Volume Gathering ExampleFacilities –Produced Volume Gathering Example

Solve produced volume gathering issue• Need for gas gathering and produced fluid pumping to

treating plant• Conventional compressor / pump / separation solution was

cumbersome and cost prohibitive• Emulsions (high shear) created treating difficulties and

process interruptions

Solution• Employ multiphase pumps developed in offshore industry

(also food industry)• Ease of installation – compact unit, no separation / compressor• Low shear – reduce emulsion creation• Handles slugs and large variation in gas-liquid ratio

Page 9: Peters and Co. Limited Energy Conference CNQ 20080125.pdf · Peters and Co. Limited Energy Conference. 2 CNQ 2 Certain statements in this document or documents incorporated herein

9

CNQ9

Facilities – Multiphase PumpsFacilities – Multiphase Pumps

InletOutlet

Liner Screws Shaft

Page 10: Peters and Co. Limited Energy Conference CNQ 20080125.pdf · Peters and Co. Limited Energy Conference. 2 CNQ 2 Certain statements in this document or documents incorporated herein

10

CNQ10

Facilities – Steam Distribution ExampleFacilities – Steam Distribution Example

Solve produced steam distribution issue• Need to transmit large steam volumes over large distances• 14” Grade 550 pipe was the largest available – required dual lines

to many locations• Costs to install and valving of two pipes was expensive and

higher heat losses

Solution• Worked with mills / steel manufacturers to develop

24”, Grade 550 pipe • First use of this pipe – made manufacturer aware of specs

and market• Lowered installation costs and reduced pressure and heat losses• Now employed by others in thermal oil sands projects

Page 11: Peters and Co. Limited Energy Conference CNQ 20080125.pdf · Peters and Co. Limited Energy Conference. 2 CNQ 2 Certain statements in this document or documents incorporated herein

11

CNQ11

Drilling & Development OptimizationDrilling & Development Optimization

Increase access to reservoir while reducing footprint• Reduce number of wells required to exploit the reservoir

Reduce drilling costs while maintaining reserves• Reduce number of pads required to exploit the reservoir

Reduce costs and facilities, minimize environmental footprint• Place wells in optimum locations to increase reserves

Solution• Employ horizontal wells to increase reservoir access and reach• Design Pads to take advantage of horizontal wells• Create well design process to take advantage of geological,

geophysical, and engineering learnings and technology• Employ geosteering and modelling technology developed in

offshore industry to place wells

Page 12: Peters and Co. Limited Energy Conference CNQ 20080125.pdf · Peters and Co. Limited Energy Conference. 2 CNQ 2 Certain statements in this document or documents incorporated herein

12

CNQ12

Reduce Cost and FootprintReduce Cost and Footprint

20 wells – 1200 m Horizontal with Vertical

10 wells – 600 m Horizontal

20 wells - 8 Acre Vertical

20 wells - 4 Acre Vertical

77% Cost Reduction!

69%

46%

Benchmark

Pad and Coverage Well Type/SpacingDrilling & Pad

Cost Reduction

1 Pad, 80 acres

1 Pad, 160 acres

1 Pad, 320 acres

1 Pad, 960 acres

Evolution of PAD design taking advantage of Horizontal Wells

Page 13: Peters and Co. Limited Energy Conference CNQ 20080125.pdf · Peters and Co. Limited Energy Conference. 2 CNQ 2 Certain statements in this document or documents incorporated herein

13

CNQ13

GEOLOGY GEOPHYSICS EXPLOITATION- Core Analysis - 3D Seismic - Analogues- Log Analysis - Calcite Distribution - Well Performance- Facies Analysis - Base/Depth/Surface - Economic Cutoffs

Seismic Model to ConfirmCalcite Response:

Facies Identification/Modellingand Applied Economic Cutoffs:

Paleozoic Time StructureFrom 3-D Seismic

Model Building Using Integrated Approach Model Building Using Integrated Approach

Page 14: Peters and Co. Limited Energy Conference CNQ 20080125.pdf · Peters and Co. Limited Energy Conference. 2 CNQ 2 Certain statements in this document or documents incorporated herein

14

CNQ14

Trajectory place 2m off bottom surface:

Geologists pick TVD targets from model facies and economic cutoff

Engineers pick preliminary trajectories, Including pump tangents and anti-collision considerations

G&G pick final well placement 2m off economic cutoff base

Consultant design final well trajectory

Back-loaded into 3-D model to check

Well Design Using Available Technology and Historical Learnings Well Design Using Available Technology and Historical Learnings

Page 15: Peters and Co. Limited Energy Conference CNQ 20080125.pdf · Peters and Co. Limited Energy Conference. 2 CNQ 2 Certain statements in this document or documents incorporated herein

15

CNQ15

Load trajectory into 3-D geological and geophysical models

Model images with trajectories used to track changes and communicate

G&G use model, maps, seismic LWD logs to track and geosteer

React to resistivity changes in reservoir (anticipate calcite stringers and base encroachment)

Visualization to Optimize Well Operations – Modelling TechnologyVisualization to Optimize Well Operations – Modelling Technology

Page 16: Peters and Co. Limited Energy Conference CNQ 20080125.pdf · Peters and Co. Limited Energy Conference. 2 CNQ 2 Certain statements in this document or documents incorporated herein

16

CNQ16

Ghost-hole to confirm Clearwater base:

Strip log showing ROP, GR, Resistivity and Trajectory

View as-built trajectories and strip-logs for Pad wells

Compare log responses to mapped surfaces in 3-D model to ensure geology is explained

Define wells and areas where ghost holes or shale approaches would be prudent to reduce risk of poorly placed well bores

Validation and ReviewValidation and Review

Page 17: Peters and Co. Limited Energy Conference CNQ 20080125.pdf · Peters and Co. Limited Energy Conference. 2 CNQ 2 Certain statements in this document or documents incorporated herein

17

CNQ17

Well Operations and Design Example –Summary of Technology UseWell Operations and Design Example –Summary of Technology Use

Well and pad design• Maximize reservoir exposure in thinner reservoirs• Minimize costs • Minimize footprint• Ensure well conformance• Optimize Well Placement and Economics

Employ 3-D reservoir and geophysical modelling techniquesUse Geosteering / LWD technology developed offshoreUse multi-disciplinary team approach and work process for well designHorizontal wells with steam distribution control

Page 18: Peters and Co. Limited Energy Conference CNQ 20080125.pdf · Peters and Co. Limited Energy Conference. 2 CNQ 2 Certain statements in this document or documents incorporated herein

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CNQ18

Reservoir Process OptimizationReservoir Process Optimization

Maximize reserves while minimizing costs• CSS recovers 20-25% of reserves leaving infrastructure in place

A follow-up process could increase reserves with infrastructure• Maintain low SOR, reduce fuel and operating cost

Solution• Make use of SAGD pilot results to design a follow-up process

Maximize reservesMake use of residual heat, reservoir dilations

• Optimize well spacing / Infill potential• Test / Pilot non-thermal recovery technologies (solvents)• Ensure awareness of potential technology developments

In-situ gasification

Page 19: Peters and Co. Limited Energy Conference CNQ 20080125.pdf · Peters and Co. Limited Energy Conference. 2 CNQ 2 Certain statements in this document or documents incorporated herein

19

CNQ19

Follow-up processes (to initial CSS)• CSS recovery

factor ~20 - 25%

• SAGD recovery factor ~50%

• Hybrid process achieves best of both worlds

• 500 mmbbl recovery potential*

0

2

4

6

8

10

0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

Hybrid Recovery Process(Steam to Oil Ratio)

CSS (Typical Clearwater)

SOR Cut-off

Hybrid Recovery Process

SAGD (Actual Burnt Lake Pilot)

Recovery Factor*includes booked reserves and contingent resources

Reservoir Process Optimization –Follow-up Process ExampleReservoir Process Optimization –Follow-up Process Example

Page 20: Peters and Co. Limited Energy Conference CNQ 20080125.pdf · Peters and Co. Limited Energy Conference. 2 CNQ 2 Certain statements in this document or documents incorporated herein

20

CNQ20

Stage 1, CSS recovery factor 20% - 700 mmbbl*

ºCelsiusHorizontal Wells

Stage 2, Infill recovery factor 30% - 300 mmbbl*

Infill Well

Stage 3, Gravity Drainage recovery factor 40% - 200 mmbbl*

Injector WellInjector Well Producing Well

*includes booked reserves and contingent resources

Reservoir Process Optimization –FUP, Infill Drilling ExampleReservoir Process Optimization –FUP, Infill Drilling Example

Page 21: Peters and Co. Limited Energy Conference CNQ 20080125.pdf · Peters and Co. Limited Energy Conference. 2 CNQ 2 Certain statements in this document or documents incorporated herein

21

CNQ21

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

Jan-05 Apr-05 Jul-05 Oct-05 Jan-06 Apr-06 Jul-06 Oct-06 Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07

30 per. Mov. Avg. (Oil) 30 per. Mov. Avg. (Water)

Butane Vapex-FUPLate Cycle CSS

Crude Oil Water

Rate(bbl/d)

Diluted Bitumen

Vaporizing Solvent

Vaporizing Solvent

Depleted CSS Chamber Sor = 0.3, T~120C

Reservoir Process Optimization –Solvent Injection PilotReservoir Process Optimization –Solvent Injection Pilot

Page 22: Peters and Co. Limited Energy Conference CNQ 20080125.pdf · Peters and Co. Limited Energy Conference. 2 CNQ 2 Certain statements in this document or documents incorporated herein

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CNQ22

• 20 - 30% voidage already available to jump start process• Data available from in-situ combustion project completed at Wolf Lake

Ground level

Overburden

O2 / Air Injection

SynGas Production to Steam Generator

Oil sands

In-Situ Bitumen Gasification Concept

Gasification

Reservoir Process Optimization –Potential New Technology ApplicationReservoir Process Optimization –Potential New Technology Application

Page 23: Peters and Co. Limited Energy Conference CNQ 20080125.pdf · Peters and Co. Limited Energy Conference. 2 CNQ 2 Certain statements in this document or documents incorporated herein

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CNQ23

ConclusionsConclusions

Canadian Natural takes a pragmatic, balanced approach to new technology• Bias towards proven technology in field

• Adapt existing technology where possible

• Use third party technology / joint research / suppliers where appropriate

• Use new technology that is lower risk / higher reward

• Integrate disciplinary technologies to optimize processes

Page 24: Peters and Co. Limited Energy Conference CNQ 20080125.pdf · Peters and Co. Limited Energy Conference. 2 CNQ 2 Certain statements in this document or documents incorporated herein

24

CNQ24

ConclusionsConclusions

Canadian Natural’s approach has proven successful• Highly profitable Primrose Thermal Operation

• Solutions to Issues on Facilities, drilling / development and Reservoir Processes

• Demonstrated ability use technology to

Minimize operating costs

Minimize development capital costs

Maximize reserves

Maximize produced volumes

Page 25: Peters and Co. Limited Energy Conference CNQ 20080125.pdf · Peters and Co. Limited Energy Conference. 2 CNQ 2 Certain statements in this document or documents incorporated herein

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CNQ25

Who is Canadian Natural?Who is Canadian Natural?

Canadian based E&P company with international exposureMajor oil sands playerMaintain a balance between natural gas and crude oil projectsMeasured approach to growth and investmentsFocused on creating long-term shareholder wealth~US$50 billion enterprise value

Production Mix (2007B)

The Premium Value, Defined Growth Independent

North Sea8%

5%

Offshore West Africa

Canada87%

Page 26: Peters and Co. Limited Energy Conference CNQ 20080125.pdf · Peters and Co. Limited Energy Conference. 2 CNQ 2 Certain statements in this document or documents incorporated herein

Discipline

Opportunity

Strategy

Canadian Natural Resources Limited2500, 855 - 2 Street SW Phone: 403.517.6700Calgary Alberta Fax: 403.517.7350Canada T2P 4J8 www.cnrl.com

The Premium Value, Defined Growth Independent

The Future Clearly Defined