GHG‐TransPoRD Workshopp

Innovation system and R&D strategies for low carbon transport

Brussels, December 14‐15, 2010

The importance of innovative transport technologies attransport technologies atthe global level

Pierpaolo CazzolapEuropean Commission, JRC ‐ IPTS(presenting on behalf of the IEA)

© OECD/IEA 2010 

www.iea.org

IEA, transport and liquid fuelsl bli iRelevant publications

Medium term Oil and Gas MarketsHorizon 2015, focus on oilScenarios currently based on two different GDP growth assumptions

World Energy Outlook (WEO)World Energy Outlook  (WEO)Horizon 2030, all energy sourcesScenarios depicting different developments on the basis of policy actionsOne underlying assumption for GDP and population growth

l d h h l h l l l b lIncludes a thorough analysis on the oil supply availability

Energy Technology Perspectives (ETP)Horizon 2050, all energy sourcesHorizon 2050, all energy sourcesScenarios that pay particular attention to the role of technology, especially on the demand sideOne underlying assumption for GDP and population growth

Transport, energy and CO2. Moving towards sustainability(Transport book)Horizon 2050, all energy sourcesB ild d d h k d ETP 2008

© OECD/IEA 2010 

Builds and expands the work done on ETP 2008Foundation of the transport section of ETP 2010

The context:

We need a global energy technology revolution to meet climate change and energy security challenges.

Some early signs of progress, but much more needs to be done.

Which technologies can play a role?

What are the costs and benefits?

What policies are needed?

The IEA Energy Technology Perspectives explores how to cut CO2 to 50% below

© OECD/IEA 2010 

explores how to cut CO2 to 50% below 2007 levels by 2050

IEA ETP 2010: BLUE Map sets a very p ydifferent trajectory from Baseline

Baseline is close to a “business as usual” with a neardoubling of fuel use to 2050, nearly 80% fossil. In theBLUE Map scenario a wide number of measures

© OECD/IEA 2010 

BLUE Map scenario, a wide number of measures,including efficiency and the adoption of renewables,cuts fossil fuel use by more than half

IEA ETP 2010: BLUE Map requires p qstrong CO2 reductions from all sectors

In the Baseline, transport accounts for about 23% ofCO2 in 2007, rising to nearly 30% by 2050. In BLUEMap all sectors cut CO2 emissions dramatically

© OECD/IEA 2010 

Map, all sectors cut CO2 emissions dramatically.Transport must make major cuts in order to achieveglobal target of 50% reduction

Key technologies for reducing global CO i iCO2 emissions

45

50

55

60

Gt CO2

CCS 19%

Renewables 17%

Baseline emissions 57 Gt

30

35

40

45

Nuclear 6%

Power generation efficiency 

15

20

25

30and fuel switching 5%End‐use fuel switching  15%

End‐use fuel and electricity BLUE Map  emissions 14 Gt

0

5

10 efficiency 38%

WEO 2009 450 ppmcase  ETP2010 analysis 

A wide range of technologies will be necessary to

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

© OECD/IEA 2010 

A wide range of technologies will be necessary to reduce energy-related CO2 emissions substantially.

World energy‐related CO2 emissions b b iabatement by region

60

4045505560

Gt C

O2

Other transformation  14%

Buildings 14%

Baseline emissions 57 Gt

2025303540

Transport 23%

Industry 16%

05101520 Power sector 32%

BLUE Map emissions 14 Gt

WEO 2009 450 ppmcase  ETP2010 analysis 0

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

In the BLUE Map scenario, transport accounts for 23%of reductions. Additional savings accrue in“transformation” since less high-CO2 fuels (such as

© OECD/IEA 2010 

transformation , since less high CO2 fuels (such ascoal-to-liquids) are produced for transport use.

Key Transport steps to achieve BLUE Map outcomes

BLUE Map technology solutionsBLUE Map – technology solutions50% reduction in conventional new PLDV (car, SUV) fuel intensity by 2050

30‐50% reduction in energy intensity for bus/truck/rail/ships/aircraft by 2050

Strong uptake of advanced technology vehicles and FuelsPlug‐in Hybrids [PHEVs], starting in 2010‐2015

Battery electric vehicles [BEVs], starting in 2010‐2015

Fuel cell vehicles [FCVs], starting in 2025

Advanced, low‐GHG Biofuels reach 12% of transport fuel use by 2030, 25% by 2050

BLUE Shifts – travel solutionsBLUE Shifts travel solutions25% lower level of car and air travel in 2050 compared to Baseline

Up to 2x travel by rail, bus (such as Bus Rapid Transit systems)

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Lower travel demand due to better land use planning, road pricing, telematic substitution

Transport GHG emission wedges(well‐to‐wheel CO2‐eq)

BaselineBaseline

Worldwide GHGs increase from 7 to over 16 Gt in the Worldwide, GHGs increase from 7 to over 16 Gt in the Baseline in 2050 and to over 19 Gt in the High Baseline. The combination of technology changes and modal shift yields a reduction to about 5 Gt in BLUE Map/Shifts

© OECD/IEA 2010 

yields a reduction to about 5 Gt in BLUE Map/Shifts. (Shifting yields bigger reductions than shown here if the technology targets in BLUE Map are not achieved.)

Passenger LDV sales by technology type and scenario: BLUE Map will be VERY challenging

Million sales / yearMillion sales / year

140

160

180

140

160

180

H2 Fuel Cell

Electric

BLUEMapBaseline

80

100

120

140

80

100

120

140 Electric

Plug‐in Hybrid

Hybrid

20

40

60

80

20

40

60

80

CNG/LPG

Conventional Diesel

C ti l0

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

0

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Conventional Gasoline

In the ETP Baseline, sales are mainly conventional vehicles through 2050; hybrids reach about 20% of sales

© OECD/IEA 2010 

In BLUE Map, strong penetration of hybrids by 2015, PHEVs and EVs by 2020, FCVs after 2025. By 2050, plug-in vehicles account for more than two-thirds of all sales.

BLUE Map EV/PHEV global sales trajectory to 2050trajectory to 2050 

How can we achieve this?

100

120

) Electric

80

ales (m

illion)

40

60

enger LDV Sa

Diesel Plug‐in

0

20Passe

Gasoline  Plug‐in

Annual sales targets:

0

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

© OECD/IEA 2010 

2020: 7 million: e.g. 70 models selling 100,000 each2030: 30 million: e.g. 150 models selling 200,000 each2050: 100 million: e.g. 400 models selling 250,000 each

Projected electric and plug‐in hybrid vehicle sales th h 2020 b d ti l t tthrough 2020, based on national targets

8.0

Canada

6.0

7.0

s)

Austria

Ireland

Netherlands

4.0

5.0

Sales (millions Sweden

UK

Germany 

F

2 0

3.0

EV + PHEV

  France

Korea

Japan

Spain

1.0

2.0 Spain

United States

China

Figure based on announced national sales and stock targets with assumed 20% annual sales growth

0.0

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

© OECD/IEA 2010 

EV / PHEV sales could reach seven million by 2020

Figure based on announced national sales and stock targets, with assumed 20% annual sales growthafter target is met, if target is before 2020 (e.g. China’s target is for end of 2011).

EVs, PHEVs: some important characteristics, p

EV incremental costs could be high unless all of these targets are met:

Battery costs need to drop to $300/kWh (target for 2015)Vehicle range on batteries is expected to remain limited (e.g. 150 km)Batteries should last nearly the life of vehicles (e.g. 15 years), in order to be amortized over this time frame

Electricity demand does not look like a significant issue on aElectricity demand does not look like a significant issue on a regional scale before 2030

200 TWh in 2025 vs. 13000 TWh (OECD‐wide)

But…Could become an issue in specific areasAvailability of low CO generation will be keyAvailability of low‐CO2 generation will be keyLoad management; grid integration issues emergeEV/PHEV share of world power generation could reach 10% by 2050

© OECD/IEA 2010 

Role of biofuels

In global baseline, biofuels now about 1.5%, reach 3% in 2030, 4% in 2050, mostly 1st genin 2050, mostly 1 gen

BLUE Map, biofuels reach about 10% of transport fuels in 2030, 25% in 2050

In Latin America, biofuels reach nearly 20% in 2030, 40% in 2050

After 2030 main growth for trucks, ships aircraftLignocellulosic ethanol assumed to reach competitive  cost with $120/bbl oil by 2020

Cane to ethanol (and eventually cane‐biodiesel?) expected to play an important role

We must “solve” the feedstock problemWith 50% of biomass from waste products, remainder can be produced on <5% of agricultural land, but still unclear if even this share is sustainable

© OECD/IEA 2010 

Global Vehicle and Fuel Costs, 2010‐2050 by ETP Scenario2050 by ETP Scenario

300

USD

Hydrogen

Electricity

200

250

Trillion 

Liquid biofuels

CTL and GTL

CNG and LPGFuel costs

150

Other petroleum

Gasoline

Other

Shipping

50

100pp g

Air

Buses

Trucks

hicle costs

0

Baseline BLUE Map Baseline      USD 120

BLUE Map      USD 120

BLUE Map      USD 70

PLDV ‐ FCV

PLDV ‐ EV and PHEV

PLDV ‐ CNG and LPG

PLDV ‐ hybrid

Veh

Vehicle costs Fuel costsPLDV  hybrid

PLDV ‐ conventional

PLDV=passenger light-duty vehicle; costs are in real $2008, zero discount rate.

© OECD/IEA 2010 

With zero discount rate, fuel cost savings mostly or fully offset the costs of advanced vehicles in BLUE Map

ConclusionsConclusionsWithout policy interventions oil use and related CO2 emissions worldwide could double by 2050worldwide could double by 2050

We can change this picture dramatically and cut transport CO2 below current levels via a combination of 

Strong efficiency improvements to all modesStrong efficiency improvements to all modes

Rapid uptake of advanced technology vehicles after 2015

Strong adoption of alternative fuels (especially electricity and biofuels, and eventually hydrogen)

Modal shifts via smart growth and strong investments in state‐of‐art transit and bus systems, combined with urban planning capable to promote the use of mass transit systems (this is the challenge…)

Global Fuel Economy Initiative targets a 50% improvement in newGlobal Fuel Economy Initiative targets a 50% improvement in new LDV fuel consumption (i.e. a reduction to about 4 L/100km, on average, at the global level) by 2030

The cost of this alternative future may be surprisingly small or evenThe cost of this alternative future may be surprisingly small or even negative on a societal cost basis (i.e. taking into account low discount rates), especially if oil prices are high (in Baseline)

© OECD/IEA 2010 

Thank You

© OECD/IEA 2010 

www.iea.org/techno/etp/index.asp