Uncertainty in forest management planning: why it will not go away and what should we

do about it

Pierre BernierNatural Resources Canada / Canadian Forest Service

IUFRO World Congress 2014

2

Presentation plan:

•The climate is changing

•Society is changing

•We have to adapt

3

The different scales of forest management

1- Operational / tactical (short-term): Harvest scheduling, stand tending, sylviculture, access maintenance and planning

Uncertainties related to:• Wood quantity and quality, distribution on the landscape• Short-term to medium-term market conditions

4

3- Strategic, regional scale (medium to long-term): Sustainability targets, investment decisions, etc…

Uncertainties related to:• Tree growth and disturbance regimes• Long-term market conditions• Changing regulations / legislations / standards

The different scales of forest management

Trees take decades to grow but the past is

no longer a good analog of the future

5

Source: IPCC

IPCC WG1 AR5, 2013 :« …since the 1950s, many

of the observedchanges are

unprecedented over decades to millennia... »

Climate change is a large cause of current and future

uncertainty

6

Impacts on Canada’s forest sector are already detectable

Frest fires

Bark beetle attack on

Ponderosa pine

Droughts

Spruce budworm

Mountain Pine beetle

Aspen dieback Winter harvesting

issues

Increased growth??

Wind and ice storms

Smoke emissions

7

Impacts are not l imited to Canada’s forests

Fires in US National Forests

USDA For Serv. 2013

8

Impacts are not l imited to Canada’s forests

Wind storms in EU forests

EFI News July 2013

9

Time=0

Climate change and global changes impose new

uncertainties in the projection of future states of forest

ecosystems.

Time=30, 50, 100 years

10

•Societies’ expectations are changing with ensuing rapid changes in regulations and legislations

•Forest products are diversifying but with shorter l i fe cycle, making it difficult to forecast the future use of trees

•The market place is globalizing making it difficult to predict the future value of trees

Forestry and Society

11

Sustainable management: maintenance of ecosystem

processes

Forest management: an evolving concept

Changes in public perception and expectations

Improvements in tracking capacity

Improvements in understanding of ecosystem processes

Sustained yield: maintenance of

timber flow

12

Many uncertainties are linked to chaotic systems, or to elements whose drivers are not within the control of

the forest sector

13

These uncertainties wil l not go away…

14

The way forward…

1- Base decisions on mult iple futures:

Use multiple projection toolsUse multiple scenariosUse probabilistic approaches

For researchers:

Develop risk analysis for forest strategic planningDevelop optimisation tools that incorporate stochasticity

15

2- Implement adaptive management approaches:

Predict

Verify

Adjust

Continuousdevelopment of

knowledge

Continuousmonitoring of forest status

Periodic comparisonof predictions versus

reality

Periodic re-alignment of management

goals and tools

LearnTry

Change

The way forward…

For researchers:•Development of monitoring •Study of trends / forecasts•Evaluation of vulnerabilities

16

3- Mainstream changes…

Changes in legislative / regulatory frameworksIncorporation of risk and failureSupport for adaptation to an uncertain world

The way forward…

For researchers:

Evaluation of barriers to changeEnrichment of dialogues with forest managers/plannersTailoring of research to address pressing planning needs

17