placement tests as predictors of student success … tests as predictors of student success 2013...

Placement Tests as Predictors of Student Success 2013

Lewis & Clark Community College – Office of Institutional Research

The higher up the

chart the “better” the

score was for that

placement test. The

horizontal axis

represents the

students (in the

example each red X is

a student). The charts

within the report do not

include the red X’s so

each space on the line

represents a student.

We expected positive

correlations as indicated

by the fake chart, where

the score move up

together.

In consideration of Lewis and Clark’s intention to move to a mixed method approach for the placement of incoming students the IR office began

looking for ways to assess the different tests used to place students and how well those tests predicted success. This report looks at both Compass and ACT scores as predictors of student success in both developmental and college level courses (High School GPA was unavailable). For each course studied we included the student’s grade, Compass Test score and ACT Test score and placed them into a regression model to learn the impact of the “placement test score” on the student’s final grade in the course. To the best of our ability we ensured student’s scores placed into the models had tested directly into that level and as a result some classes we attempted to include in the report were excluded due to low numbers (Math-16A, Math-137, Math-142, Math-145 and Engl-125). We developed a chart for this report to display how the relationships work. Below is an example of the charts you will find in this report. The chart below depicts a very good correlation (almost perfect). The blue line in the chart represents student’s placement test scores. The green line represents the grades of students for that course. The vertical axis indicates placement score level.

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1 50

Pla

cem

en

t Te

st S

core

Each Point Represents a Case (Student)

Fake Chart of the Fictitious Wonder Placement Test

Test Score

Grade

1 step above the score line represents a "B"

2 steps above the score line represent an "A"

1 step below represents a "D"

2 steps below represents one of several grades "F,FN or W"

When the grade line is on the score line represents a "C"



Table 1: Regression of Math-11A Students’ Final Grade and Compass Algebra Test Score, Fall 2012

Descriptive Statistics

Mean Std. Deviation N

GRD 2.08 1.479 227

Compass Alg. 18.94 3.318 227

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Co

mp

ass

Test

Sco

re


MATH-11A Students' Grade over Compass Algebra Score

CMPScore

Grade

Table 1 shows the results for

a regression model with

students’ final grade in Math-

11A as the dependent variable

and their Compass Algebra

Test score as the independent

variable. The mean or average

grade was 2.08 (“C”) and the

mean or average Compass

algebra test score was 18.94.

The regression shows a weak

positive correlation (r=.274,

N=227) between the Compass

Algebra Test scores and final

grades, meaning as Compass

Algebra scores go up final

grades go up weakly. The

regression model shows the

Compass Algebra Test explains

about seven percent (r2=.075)

of the variance in students

final grades. Combining the

lack of variance explained with

the weak nature of the

correlation the Compass

Algebra Test is a weak

predictor of student success in

Math-11A.

Source: Informer (CMP scores)

Model Summary

Model R R Square Std. Coefficients

Beta

1 .274a .075 .274



Table 2: Regression of Math-11A Students’ Final Grade and ACT Score, Fall 2012



GRD 2.14 1.385 148

ACT Comp. 15.35 2.457 148

5

10

15

20

25

AC

T C

om

po

site

Sco

re

Each Point Repesents a Case (Student)

MATH-11A Students' Grade over ACT Composite Score

ACTComp.

Grade


a regression model with

students’ final grade in Math-

11A as the dependent variable

and their ACT Composite

score as the independent

variable. The mean or average

grade was 2.14 (“C”) and the

mean or average ACT

Composite score was 15.35.

The regression shows a

moderate, positive correlation

(r=.425, N=148) between ACT

Composite scores and final

grades, meaning as ACT

Composite scores go up so do

final grades. The regression

model shows the ACT

Composite score explains

about eighteen percent

(r2=.181) of the variance in

students final grades.

Combining the amount of

variance explained with the

moderate strength of the

correlation the ACT Composite

is a better predictor of student

success in Math-11A than the

Compass Algebra Test.


Model Summary


Beta

1 .425a .181 .425



Table 3: Regression of Math-11B Students’ Final Grade and Compass Algebra Test Score, Fall 2012



GRD 2.12 1.247 143

Compass Alg. 19.33 3.484 143

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Co

mp

ass

Alg

eb

ra S

core


MATH-11B Students' Grade over Compass Algebra Score

CMPScore

Grade

Table 3 shows the results for a

regression model with students’ final

grade in Math-11B as the dependent

variable and their Compass Algebra

Test score as the independent

variable. The mean or average grade

was 2.12 (“C”) and the mean or

average Compass Algebra Test score

was 19.33. The regression shows a

weak positive correlation (r=.119,


Algebra Test scores and final grades.

The positive correlation indicates the

scores move in the direction

expected (up together) the weak

strength indicates a lack of

connectivity between Compass

Algebra Test scores and a final grade

in Math-11B. The regression model

shows the Compass Algebra Test

explains about one percent (r2=.014)

of the variance in students final

grades. Combining the lack of

variance explained with the weak

nature of the correlation the

Compass Algebra Test is a poor


Math-11B. As a result of these

findings it appears that the Compass

Algebra Test is much more closely

calibrated to the A module.


Model Summary


Beta

1 .119a .014 .119



Table 4: Regression of Math-12A First Time Students’ Final Grade and Compass Algebra Test Score, Fall 2012



GRD 2.45 1.401 211

Compass Alg. 29.10 7.311 211

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

Co

mp

ass

Alg

eb

ra S

core


MATH-12A Students' Grade over Compass Algebra Score

Comp.Score

Grade


regression model with first time

students’ final grade in Math-12A

as the dependent variable and

their Compass Algebra Test score

as the independent variable. The

mean or average grade was 2.45

(“C”) and the mean or average

Compass Algebra Test score was

29.10. The regression shows a




grades. Again in this model the

relationship works as expected

(both move up together),

however the relationship is a

weak one. The regression model


explains about seven percent


students final grades. Combining

the lack of variance explained

with the weak nature of the

correlation between Compass

algebra scores and Math-12A

grade the Compass Algebra Test

is a weak predictor of student

success in Math-12A.


Model Summary


Beta

1 .268a .072 .268



Table 5: Regression of Math-12A First Time Students’ Final Grade and ACT Score, Fall 2012



GRD 2.65 1.277 148

ACT Comp. 18.08 3.025 148

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

AC

T C

om

po

site

Sco

re


MATH-12A Students' Grade over ACT Composite Score

ACTComp.

Grade


a regression model with first

time students’ final grade in

Math-12A as the dependent

variable and their ACT

Composite score as the

independent variable. The

mean or average grade was

2.65 (“C”) and the mean or

average ACT Composite score

was 18.08. The regression

shows a moderate, positive

correlation (r=.319, N=148)

between ACT Composite

scores and final grades,

meaning as ACT Composite

scores go up so do final

grades. The regression model

shows the ACT Composite

score explains about ten

percent (r2=.102) of the

variance in students final

grades. Combining the

amount of variance explained

with the moderate strength of

the correlation shows the ACT

Composite is a better


Math-12A than the Compass

algebra test.


Model Summary


Beta

1 .319a .102 .319



Table 6: Regression of Math-12B Students’ Final Grade and Compass Algebra Test Score, Fall 2012



GRD 2.61 1.313 226

Compass Alg. 28.85 7.917 226

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Co

mp

ass

Alg

eb

ra S

core


MATH-12B Students' Grade over Compass Algebra Score

CMPScore

Grade


regression model with a students’

final grade in Math-12B as the

dependent variable and their

Compass Algebra Test score as

the independent variable. The

mean or average grade was 2.61

(“C”) and the mean or average

Compass Algebra Test score was



N=226) between Compass


grades. The regression model


explains about five percent



the lack of variance explained


correlation the Compass Algebra

Test is a weak predictor of

student success in Math-12B. It is

interesting that while there is still

fall off between 12A and 12B the

fall off is not as severe as it was

between 11A and 11B indicating

the Compass Algebra Test is

better calibrated as a predictor

for Math-12B than Math-11B.


Model Summary


Beta

1 .229a .052 .229



Table 7: Regression of Math-131 Non-Developmental Students’ Final Grade and College Level Compass Algebra Test Score, Fall 2012



GRD 2.95 1.1127 78

Compass Alg. 48.14 12.235 78

0

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20

30

40

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60

70

80

90

Co

mp

ass

Co

llege

Le

vel A

lge

bra

Sco

re


MATH-131 Students' Grade over Compass College Level Algebra Score

CMPScore

Grade


regression model with non-

developmental students’ final grade

in Math-131 as the dependent

variable and their Compass College

Level (CL) Algebra Test score as the

independent variable. The mean or

average grade was 2.95 (“C”) and

the mean or average Compass CL

Algebra Test score was 48.14. The

regression shows a moderate

positive correlation (r=.457, N=78)

between Compass CL Algebra Test

scores and final grades. The


Compass CL Algebra Test explains

about twenty percent (r2=.209) of

the variance in students final

grades. Combining the amount of


moderate nature of the correlation

the Compass CL Algebra Test is a

moderate predictor of student

success in Math-131. These findings

must be tempered by the small

sample size. Both the Compass CL

Algebra and ACT Composite tests

lacked sufficient numbers to fully

assess.


Model Summary


Beta

1 .457a .209 .457



Table 8: Regression of ENGL-131 Non-Developmental Students’ Final Grade and Compass English Score, Fall 2012



GRD 2.86 1.359 161

Compass Alg. 8.47 1.581 161

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11

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Co

mp

ass

Engl

ish

Sco

re


Non-Developmental ENGL-131 Students' Grade over Compass English Score

CMPScore

Grade



developmental students’ final

grade in ENGL-131 as the


Compass English Test score as the

independent variable. The mean

or average grade was 2.86 (“C+”)

and the mean or average

Compass English Test score was



N=161) between Compass English

Test scores and final grades. The


Compass English Test explains

about half of a percent (r2=.005)

of the variance in students final




Compass English Test is a weak


ENGL-131.


Model Summary


Beta

1 .072a .005 .072



Table 9: Regression of ENGL-131 Non-Developmental Students’ Final Grade and Compass Read Score, Fall 2012



GRD 3.15 1.122 239

Compass Alg. 89.44 6.53 239

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75

80

85

90

95

100

105

Co

mp

ass

Re

ad S

core


Non-Developmental English-131 Students' Grade over

Compass Read Score

CompassScore

Grade






Compass Read Test score as the


or average grade was 3.15 (“B”)

and the mean or average

Compass Read test score was



N=239) between Compass Read

Test scores and final grades. The


Compass Read Test explains

about five percent (r2=.058) of

the variance in students final




Compass Read Test is a weak


ENGL-131.


Model Summary


Beta

1 .241a .058 .241



Table 10: Regression of ENGL-131 Non-Developmental Students’ Final Grade and ACT English Score, Fall 2012



GRD 2.60 1.380 275

Compass Alg. 20.50 4.934 275

0

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30

35

40

AC

T En

glis

h S

core


Non-Developmental ENGL-131 Students' Grade over ACT English Score

ACTScore

Grade





dependent variable and their ACT

English test score as the


or average grade was 2.60 (“C”)

and the mean or average ACT

English test score was 20.50. The



N=275) between ACT English Test

scores and final grades. The

regression model shows the ACT

English Test explains about

eleven percent (r2=.116) of the

variance in students final grades.



moderate nature of the

correlation the ACT English Test is

a moderate predictor of student

success in ENGL-131 and the 2nd

best predictor of student success

in ENGL-131 of all of the “tests”

used or accessible to Lewis and

Clark.


Model Summary


Beta

1 .340a .116 .241



Table 11: Regression of ENGL-131 Non-Developmental Students’ Final Grade and High School GPA, Fall 2012



GRD 2.29 1.371 216

Compass Alg. 2.842 .602 216

0

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Hig

h S

cho

ol G

PA


Non-Developmental ENGL-131 Students' Grade over High School GPA

HS GPA

Grade






High School GPA as the



and the mean or average High

School GPA was 2.842. The



N=216) between High School GPA

and final grades. The regression

model shows High School GPA

explains about eighteen percent



the amount of variance explained

with the moderate nature of the

correlation and High School GPA

is a moderate predictor of

student success in ENGL-131 and

the best predictor of student

success in ENGL-131 of all of the

“tests” used or accessible to

Lewis and Clark.


Model Summary


Beta

1 .436a .186 .436



Table 12: Regression of MATH-12A Students’ Final Grade and High School GPA, Fall 2012



GRD 2.54 1.358 144

Compass Alg. 2.81 .649 144

0

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2

3

4

5

6

Hig

h S

cho

ol G

PA


MATH-12A Students' Grade over High School GPA

HS GPA

Grade




grade in Math-12A as the







regression shows a strong





explains about twenty-seven

percent (r2=.273) of the variance

in students final grades.



strong nature of the correlation

and High School GPA is a strong


Math-12A and the best predictor

of student success in Math-12A of

all of the “tests” used or

accessible to Lewis and Clark.


Model Summary


Beta

1 .528a .273 .528



Table 13: Regression of MATH-11A Students’ Final Grade and High School GPA, Fall 2012



GRD 2.06 1.399 105

Compass Alg. 2.513 .603 105

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

5

Hig

h S

cho

ol G

PA


MATH-11A Students' Grade over High School GPA

HS GPA

Grade




grade in Math-11A as the







regression shows a weak positive

correlation (r=.277, N=105)

between High School GPA and

final grades. The regression


explains about seven percent






is a weak predictor of student

success in Math-11A. The ACT

Composite remains the best


Math-11A of all of the “tests”


Clark.


Model Summary


Beta

1 .277a .077 .277



Table 14: Regression of Math-131 Non-Developmental Students’ Final Grade and High School GPA, Fall 2012



GRD 2.00 1.561 56

Compass Alg. 3.06 .519 56

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Hig

h S

cho

ol G

PA


MATH-131 Students' Grade over High School GPA

HS GPA

Grade




grade in Math-131 as the







regression shows a strong





explains about thirty-four percent




with the strong nature of the


is a strong predictor of student

success in Math-131 and the best


Math-131 of all of the “tests”


Clark.


Model Summary


Beta

1 .585a .342 .585

placement tests as predictors of student success … tests as predictors of student success 2013...

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