play predict

Download Play predict

Post on 07-Aug-2015

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  1. 1. Play Predict Seiji Armstrong
  2. 2. 15 players on a team 5 players on the court The coach rotates players between the bench and the court Data-driven approach: real-time performance prediction Performance predictions
  3. 3. Game play has patterns Positive: shots, assists, steals Negative: turnovers, fouls Plays come in streaks
  4. 4. 3 3 4 5 4 3 5 Plays come in streaks Positive: shots, assists, steals Negative: turnovers, fouls Game play has patterns
  5. 5. 3 3 4 5 4 3 5 Plays come in streaks Positive: shots, assists, steals Negative: turnovers, fouls Game play has patterns 3 pointer 2 pointer
  6. 6. Play Predict :: algorithm Basketballvalue.com API Bulk download Scrape 2500 game events per player Probability density functions Conditional probabilities Performance predictions Unique streak profiles Classifying streaks Complete game logs
  7. 7. Play Predict :: validation Training set Testset 0.90.2 0.2 0.9 Validation set: Played over 75% of games (89 players). Testing predictions to continue streak from 2 to 3. Pearson R = 0.7
  8. 8. Seiji Armstrong