p.o. box 129. ec edwardsburgh cardinal 18 centre st. ca · lwp ec edwardsburgh cardinal • ca to:...

lWP

EC EDWARDSBURGH CARDINAL • ca

To: Phil Dawes Superintendent of District Alignment Upper Canada District School Board

[email protected]

January 24, 2017

Phone: 613-658-3055

Fax: 613-658-3445

Toll Free: 866-848-9099

E-mail: [email protected]

P.O. Box 129.

18 Centre St.

Spencerville. Ontario

KOE 1XO

Municipal Response to UCDSB Pupil Accommodation Review Initial Staff Report

Background: Following is the Township of Edwardsburgh/Cardinal's response to the recent draft plan that would see Benson Public School in Cardinal close in June of 2017 with all pupils being directed to South Edwardsburg Public School. Subsequently, depending upon capital funding from the Province for school expansion at Wellington Public School, SEPS could potentially close and students from both Benson and SEPS would be placed at Wellington . Both of these elementary schools are within the boundaries of the Township of Edwardsburg hi Cardinal ; Benson being located in Cardinal and South Edwardsburg Public School (SEPS) being located in Johnstown.

Many concerns have been raised in the community with respect to this draft Pupil Accommodation Review and there are strong voices and compelling presentations being heard at the ARC meetings from individuals and community groups.

It is important that the municipal presentation to the Board bring to light considerations that the Parent Councils and other individuals may not be in a position to present.

LOCAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT

The municipality has invested significant resources in attracting new businesses to the Township with great success, particularly in the Johnstown Industrial Park, which is one of only three Regionally Significant Employment Areas designated in the United Counties of Leeds and Grenville Official Plan as approved in 2016.

Since 2014, the Township of Edwardsburgh/Cardinal has cash flowed nearly $2,000,000 to the Town of Prescott as a contribution to their capital costs for providing water and sewer services to the Johnstown Industrial Park to ensure that the Park can continue to expand and grow.

The Port of Johnstown- owned and operated by the municipality- completed a $35,000,000 expansion and rehabilitation of its wharf and docks in 2016. The capital investment will position the Port to increase shipping via trucks, rail and vessel of bulk cargos such as grain , aggregate

CORPORATION OF THE TOWNSHIP OF EDWARDSBURGH CARDINAL ----- You Can Get There From Here -----

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and salt. Additionally, new business streams have been developed beginning in 2013 with the addition of storage and shipping of calcium chloride. 2015 and 2016 have added a fifth business stream of project cargo.

The Giant Tiger Distribution Centre is currently under construction in the Johnstown Industrial Park. This 660,000 square foot warehouse and distribution centre is scheduled to be operational in the first quarter of 2018. The impact on taxation revenue for the municipality -and the School Board -will amount to several hundred thousand dollars annually. As well , it is reasonable to expect new spin-off and related businesses to locate nearby and bring additional taxation revenue and employment opportunities.

The employment picture from the major development amounts to 200 positions newly located in our Township from the Distribution Centre alone. This does not account for spin-off and related employment increases.

Giant Tiger has purchased significantly more land than is required for their immediate needs as they look to future expansion - potentially doubling in size and employment within ten years.

Canadian Rail Equipment Works & Services has recently purchased lands and begun development in the Industrial Park area. The owner of this highly successful service company anticipates increasing his workforce rapidly in the next ten years to as many as 50 employees.

Prysmian Power Cables (formerly Pirelli Cables) has been resident in the Johnstown Industrial park for 30 years. In 2010, following an in depth international review of their operations, they elected to nearly double the size of their plant in Johnstown, adding 80 new positions. We understand there are further growth plans under consideration.

Greenfield Ethanol 's Johnstown plant was built in 2008-09, bringing approximately 40 new jobs to our Township. In 2016 Air Liquide constructed a 'guest' facility on the site to utilize waste carbon dioxide from the Greenfield operation. This installation is valued at nearly $25,000,000.

King's Lock Distillery & Windmill Brewery officially opened in a brand new building in the Johnstown Industrial Park in 2016, bringing yet another new employer to the area.

Residential Development is naturally following this industrial growth and associated increases in employment opportunities. There are two subdivision agreements in process in the village of Cardinal. Draft plan approval has been achieved for Edwardsburgh Gardens - a 95 lot development featuring single family dwellings. Draft Plan approval is also in place for Meadowlands North and the owner is working towards an amendment to that approval to permit significant intensification which will result in 106 new residential units that will be a mix of single and semi-detached units. A copy of the draft plan is attached for your perusal.

Labour Force - One of the challenges faced by any small municipality when working to increase the local employment picture, is the perception that a skilled labour force may not be available. 1000 Islands Region Workforce Development Board has identified a concern with a lack of skilled labour in the region already, especially as an older workforce retires. If schools in our villages close, the challenge of attracting and retaining a skilled labour force is multiplied exponentially.

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The municipality has engaged Doyletech Corporation to provide economic and social impact modelling to quantify the impact of school closures on economic development in the Township. Their report is attached.

OTHER LOCAL ISSUES

Transportation -the proposed busing of students from Cardinal and Johnstown west towards Prescott creates a significant increase in bus traffic through a very busy and rapidly growing logistics center. The current truck traffic is expected to increase and Giant Tiger anticipates receiving permission from the Ministry of Transportation to utilize the 416 to County Road 2 route for Long Commercial Vehicles soon after opening . This poses a major safety concern.

Infrastructure- in addition to securing water and sewer services to the Industrial Park, the municipality completed James Street reconstruction in 2016 at a cost of some $1 .1 million. This project, directly in front of Benson Public School, included extra costs for sidewalks and boulevards to ensure student pedestrian safety, as well as consideration for bus turnarounds and traffic control. Less than a year later, the accommodation review proposes closing the school.

In 2013 the Township of Edwardsburgh/Cardinal completed construction of a $6.2 million dollar state-of-the art arena in the village of Cardinal. In addition to an ice surface which is operational for ten months of the year, there is a walking track and meeting room. This facility, as are all Township recreational facilities, is made available free of charge to schools for fitness programming such as skating.

In 2016 the municipality funded a $100,000 refurbishment project for one of the two public swimming pools in Cardinal. The 'baby pool ' is intended to be a safe and comfortable place where children five and younger can get their first swimming lessons. Closure of the public school in Cardinal will surely lead to fewer and fewer residents who will benefit from this facility as families may choose to locate in other more family-friendly towns.

The Township of Edwardsburgh/Cardinal is home to two vibrant and modern public libraries. The Cardinal Public Library is available to school children and offers programs designed to foster a love of learning in all ages.

Benson Public School is located between lngredion Canada (formerly Casco) and the nearby cogeneration facility which was constructed in 1994. As a result of its location, Benson has been recipient to free heat for more than 20 years.

South Edwardsburg Public School is located at the heart of the residential subdivision in Johnstown, close to the South Edwardsburg Community Centre and Pool. The municipal facilities are available free of charge. In 2015 a major tree planting program was undertaken by the municipality in conjunction with South Nation Conservation and the students at SEPS were provided an opportunity to assist with planting of the seedlings which will one day contribute to the urban forest canopy.

PROVINCIAL POLICIES CONTRARY TO SCHOOL CLOSURES

The proposed closure of and amalgamation of "rural" schools appears to fly in the face of the Provincial Government's own policies and directives.

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In a very recent example, municipalities were provided an opportunity to participate in the "Ontario Review and Integration of Regional & Rural Business Support Programs" via an online survey in January of 2017. This consultation was facilitated by Donna Cona and MOB Insight who were retained by the Ministry of Economic Development and Growth and the Ministry of Agriculture , Food and Rural Affairs . The stated purpose of the survey was "Investing in regional economic development and strong rural economies is a vital part of the Government's plan to create a dynamic, innovative environment where private sector businesses thrive. " The Township of Edwardsburgh/Cardinal is doing its part to help the province achieve this lofty goal -the School Board should too.

Provincial Policy Statement 2014- this document "provides direction on matters of provincial interest related to land use planning and development". By its own admission , the Provincial Policy Statement "focuses growth and development within urban and rural settlement areas while supporting the viability of rural areas". Settlement areas include cities, towns, villages and hamlets and the PPS states that they shall be the focus of growth and development. The Township of Edwardsburgh/Cardinal has three such settlement areas within its boundariesCardinal , Johnstown and Spencerville. How do we focus such growth and development if there are not appropriate public service facilities such as schools in those areas?

Ministry of Environment Climate Action Plan -According to this document released in June of 2016 "More than one-third of Ontario's greenhouse gas pollution is caused by the transportation sector, with cars and trucks responsible for more than 70 per cent of the total. Since 1990, vehicle emissions in this province have been rising steadily due to increased vehicle ownership, commuting distance (emphasis added) and population growth. It's important that this be reduced." It is our understanding that some students will face a commuting distance as much as 52 kilometers each way to attend school if the Initial Staff Report's recommendations are implemented. Even if the end result is commuting distances that are not as long, there is no question that closure of schools in communities such as Cardinal and Johnstown will result in additional buses on the road each and every day. At the present time many of these children can and do walk to school.

Ministry of Health & Long-Term Care- Premier Wynn 's letter to the Associate Minister of Health and Long-Term Care in June of 2014 directed specific actions that the Associate Minister was to take to "champion a culture of health and wellness". The Premier directed that the Healthy Kids Strategy first developed in 2012 should continue to be implemented. Specifically, the Associate Minister was directed to partner with the Minister of Education and others across government to "support students to get 60 minutes of activity connected to their school day". What better way to achieve that goal, at no cost to the taxpayer, than enabling children to walk to school.

Ministry of Economic Development and Growth- The Township of Edwardsburgh/Cardinal acted quickly to access the funds provided by the Ministry of Economic Development and Growth in 2014 to make the Johnstown Industrial Park "Certified Development Ready". This designation, which proves to potential developers that the lands are available for development with all environmental assessments, archaeological studies, species at risk studies and servicing in place, was absolutely instrumental in the Township's successful sale of property to Giant Tiger in 2016 for their Distribution Centre project. There remain several acres of prime commercial lands that can be sold and developed by other smaller businesses. The investment jointly made by the Province and the municipality in these efforts may well be negated by school closures in the area that will discourage the desired additional development.

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Infrastructure funding has been made available to small municipalities through the Ontario Community Infrastructure Fund. The Township of Edwardsburgh/Cardinal has been a grateful recipient of this funding for the past two years. The Province has stated that the OCIF is intended as an investment in building and repairing critical infrastructure in small , rural and northern municipalities and it is being put to good use across the province. The school board should also be prepared to invest in the small and rural municipalities within its borders by continuing to support the school infrastructure that is critical to maintaining healthy and vibrant communities.

Ministry of Agriculture Food and Rural Affairs -The Minister was directed to "foster vibrant rural economies" in 2014. Specifically, the Premier directed the Minister to "continue to work with other ministers to support the growth of manufacturing and the digital economy in rural Ontario." The Township of Edwardsburgh/Cardinal is doing its part- bringing significant growth to rural eastern Ontario. The school board's proposed closure of so-called "rural" schools does nothing to accomplish this Provincial directive and in fact is completely contrary to the mandate.

Ministry of Municipal Affairs- in 2014, the Minister was directed to "continue to apply a municipal lens to decisions made across government, ensuring the impact on municipalities is carefully considered". We acknowledge that the school board has been following the process of the pupil accommodation review guidelines very carefully. However there is no apparent application of a 'municipal lens' to the impacts of school closures as outlined in the initial staff report. The Community Hubs Framework Advisory Group rose out of the Premiers 2014 direction to the Minister. This concept appeared to hold great promise for rural areas. The stated intent of the community hubs policy development was to "promote efficient use of public assets and build better ties among schools, municipalities and community organizations". The Upper Canada District School Board does not appear to have embraced the notion of building better ties as evidenced by the somewhat lackluster attempt at consultation in June of last year that apparently was the municipality's opportunity to provide solutions ahead of the drafting of the staff report.

Ministry of Education- Premier Wynne's 2014 letter outlining the Minister of Education's priorities included the following paragraph:

"Ontario's publicly funded education system is acknowledged as one of the best in the world. I ask that you build on this solid foundation and continue to progress toward a responsive, high quality and accessible system that is integrated from early learning and child care through to adult education".

Rural Eastern Ontarians should have access to education in their own communities.

POTENTIAL FINANCIAL CONTRIBUTIONS BY THE MUNCIPALITY

The Township of Edwardsburgh/Cardinal recognizes that the municipality and its residents have a significant stake in keeping schools open in our communities. Therefore, there are a number of ways in which Council may contribute to each of the two schools in an effort to acknowledge and recognize the economic benefits.

Benson Public School - Benson is currently operated at significantly less cost than other schools by virtue of its proximity to Cardinal Power and the provision of free heat. However, the municipality could consider provision of water/sewer services at no charge to Benson Public School to further reduce the annual operating costs of the building. Further, if the $3.7 million renovation estimate (over four years) is more than the School Board can justify investing in an older building , then the municipality has an available, appropriately-zoned parcel adjacent to the

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Public Library, Arena and Recreation Complex that could be donated to the UCDSB for construction of a new, accessible and energy-efficient school appropriately sized for the community.

South Edwardsburg Public School -the municipality has staff expertise that could be provided to well monitoring and water testing at no charge to SEPS. Educare is currently operating day care spaces in SEPS and there is a waiting list. If the municipality were to partially fund additional daycare spaces, Educare could potentially use up vacant space and preserve the financial viability of SEPS.

CONCLUSION

The Township of Edwardsburgh/Cardinal is deeply concerned about the recommendations contained in the UCDSB Pupil Accommodation Review Initial Staff Report.

This municipal council , as well as previous councils, have put endless hours and effort into bringing economic development to our Township and our region. It is well known that economic development initiatives take time to come to fruition . Finally, we have seen significant success in recent years and the Township is poised to become the St. Lawrence Seaway's industrial/commercial hub.

The suggestion of closing schools in this area is a gut-punch to our efforts.

Yours truly,

Attachments - Draft Plan - Meadowlands North Doyletech Report Council Resolution of support

cc: Premier of Ontario, Kathleen Wynne Minister of Education, Mitzie Hunter Leeds-Grenville MPP, Steve Clark UCDSB Director of Education , Steven Sliwa UCDSB Chair, Jeff McMillan UCDSB Ward 6 Trustee, Lisa Swan The United Counties of Leeds & Grenville Municipalities in Leeds & Grenville

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Impact of Prospective School Closures in Edwardsburgh Cardinal Township, Ontario

I Final Report

Disclaimer: Information, estimates, forecasts, opinions, and statistical data contained in this report were obtained or derived from sources believed to be reliable, but Doyletech Corporation does not represent that any such information, opinion or statistical data is necessarily accurate or complete. All estimates, opinions, and recommendations expressed herein constitute judgments as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice.

~OYLETECH -VcORPORATION

January 23, 2017 Prepared by Doyletech Corporation, 2017.

j Impact of Prospective School Closures in Edwardsburgh Cardinal, Ontario

Introduction and Objectives

Doyletech was contracted by the Township ofEdwardsburgh Cardinal to do an economic and social impact assessment of prospective school closures in the township, as proposed by the Upper Canada District School Board (UCDSB) in their report to Trustees "Building For the Future- Pupil Accommodation Review" dated Sept 28th, 2016. The objective this engagement was:

• To illustrate how the proposed closures would impact the economy in Edwardsburgh Cardinal (including direct, indirect and induced effects); and

• To illustrate how the proposed closures would impact the social activities and cohesiveness in Edwardsburgh Cardinal ; and

• To provide decision-makers with additional information beyond the financial framework assumed by the Pupil Accommodation Review that the community believes needs to be considered in making any definitive choices regarding UCDSB school rationalization.

Prepared for the Township of Edwardsburgh Cardinal I 2

I Impact of Prospective School Closures in Edwardsburgh Cardinal, Ontario

Background to Issue of School Closures

• Upper Canada District School Board (UCDSB) in 2016 began a process of rationalizing their student population with the spaces available in their school inventory.

• UCDSB released a report in September 2016- "Building for the Future Pupil Accommodation Review" which called for the closing of up to 29 schools.

• In Edwardsburgh Cardinal, Benson Public School and South Edwardsburgh Public School (SEPS) were proposed for consolidation and subsequent closure, with an eventual move to be consolidated with Wellington Public School in Prescott.

• Collectively, the UCDSB and the Ontario Ministry of Education have set out a process for evaluating the rationalization proposals, which includes a significant public consultation element.

• Notwithstanding the public consultations, the process does not afford any mechanism to evaluate the local social, cultural, or economic impacts of the proposed closures. The process dictates that school closures are to be evaluated solely on their impact on learning and the funding envelope for education provided to the board.

• This report has been prepared to provide input in anticipation of the process being adapted to include impacts outside the existing education budget of the UCDSB.



Edwards burgh Cardinal School Closure Scenarios

• In a two step process, close Benson Public School and South Edwards burgh Public School, and consolidate the students in a rebuilt Wellington Public School in Prescott

• 157 students affected

• 24 staff affected, including 1 0 teachers. While some staff will be relocated, we estimate at least 7 permanent positions, currently filled by local area residents, will be lost

• Annual operating and maintenance budgets of the two schools, calculated at $2.1 million will be affected

• 5 year facility renewal plans for the schools (estimated at averaging $1.6 million annually), which would have provided opportunities to local contractors, will be lost



Our Methodology for Economic Impact Assessment

The Econ Win Model

• Doyletech used its Econ Win computer econometric model for developing this impact study. This model is specifically designed for assessing the incremental economic impact of a new capital investment change within smaller communities of approximately 100,000 or less. (It can also certainly be run for larger economies if needed.)

• Econ Win is an econometric model that is able to isolate individual investments (such as an investment in public infrastructure) and then calculate, under a variety of scenario conditions, what the returns would be to the local community as a whole in terms of increased economic activity. It can also be used to assess shutdowns of existing organizations or installations.

• As well, the model differentiates between the "local" economy and the surrounding "regional" economy. For purposes of running the model, Doyletech defined the "local community" and "local economy" as consisting of the Cardinal- Johnstown corridor and the immediate area around it. The "regional economy" was taken as the remaining part ofEdwardsburgh Cardinal Township.

• The model integrates key exogenous inputs such as the value of operating labour (teachers and staff) and projects forward, using endogenous economic multipliers, the value of eventual total impacts such as number of jobs lost, value of lost local spending, and loss of current municipal taxes generated. The model calculates "indirect" and "induced" economic effects, taking into account the "downstream" multiplier effects from the original shut down.



Our Methodology for Economic Impact Assessment (Continued - II)

• It was necessary to run the model to incorporate two key effects from a given school closure scenario:

• First, lost income - the ongoing impact of the elimination of operational spending, consisting of staff salaries, maintenance and operations spending, etc., that will now be lost to the local economy

• Second, the reduction in renewal spending. It seems reasonable to project that the school board will now spend only as required to maintain a building in a safe condition, but not to improve or renew it. Accordingly, spending for major repair and construction projects related to maintaining and improving the state of a prospectively-closing school will now be lost to the local community

• As well, there is a third category of impact - Wealth effects. As our social impact research shows, the absence of a local school can materially impact the decision of future residents on whether or not to relocate to an area and of local residents to stay. Both effects cause reduction in the demand for such things as housing, local services, etc. This lowered demand in tum lowers the value of all houses, properties and businesses in the area, reducing the overall wealth of all residents. We provide some illustrative projections of what these effects might be in a separate calculation.



Our Methodology for Economic Impact Assessment (Continued - III)

•

•

The critical data concerning the parameters of the school closure was obtained from publicly available UCDSB finance documents. This data was augmented by face to face interviews with local stakeholders (businesses, education related local residents, municipal officials, and community activists).

From previous similar projects, Doyletech believes that the data values used are reasonable, although they cannot be guaranteed. Specifically, none of the impacts is absolute ( eg/ not every employee in a closed school will move out of the local region and take 100% of their day to day spending with them). Nevertheless, Doyletech believes they are reasonable forecasts for purposes of prospective decisionmaking by funders.



The Range of Economic Impacts

The economic impacts we have assessed are driven by two principal factors:

• Factor 1 -Reduced local spending by the school: If a given school is closed, the local impact of teacher and other staff salaries, maintenance and operations spending, and renewal spending is impacted. The result is not an absolute. Some teachers may not move closer to their new school and even an empty building will need to be heated and maintained to a certain degree. We have accounted for these factors in our model runs;

• Factor 2 - Reduced spending by local residents and local organizations: Often called "induced" or "indirect" effects, they reflect the fact that if a local business that had been relying on the school for a significant portion of its business loses those customers, it in tum spends less. These factors can often equal the direct effects in magnitude.



The Range of Economic Impacts (Continued - II)

As well, the schools link to the local economy. They are a vital institution for local economic sustainability:

• The operational expenditures of the schools directly impact the local economy. While few of the teachers live in the local area, other staff do. As well, a significant portion of the spending on operations and maintenance flows through the local economy

• The facilities renewal plans for the two schools incorporate a significant labour component, which traditionally is filled by local workers.

• There will be a direct hit on local businesses serving the school population and their families. From previous projects on school closings, Doyletech calculates that the spending by parents at local stores for lunches, snacks, and break refreshments both during school and during extra curricular activities is significant. If the schools and their associated activities are moved, this spending is lost.

• Unlike many rural communities in Eastern Ontario, Edwards burgh Cardinal has very bright economic development prospects. A major new warehousing centre stands to form the core of a business cluster built on excellent road, rail, and water access and associated support services. Other local businesses such as the facility in Cardinal continue to grow. Their future prospects are negatively impacted if they face challenges attracting the employees they need to the area.



Key Parameters and Assumptions- Operational Spending

• Absent school-by-school spending details, we have built an operational spending model using other board budget documents

• Staffing numbers (teachers, non-teachers, admin and support categories) were taken from school profiles • Board wide average salaries were taken from UCDSB technical budget documents • Utility costs were taken from school profiles • Supply and services per individual school were calculated from the total board maintenance and operations

budget (less salaries and utilities), prorated across all schools by school size.

• Collectively these values were used to calculate the total spending per school. • Closure impacts in general assumed 60% of staff live in the local area, and that following a closure, 50% of

those will move out of the local area within 5 years to be nearer to their new school • We assume most custodial jobs and principal administrative jobs will be eliminated following a closure.

Key Parameters and Assumptions- Renewal Spending

• For Renewal spending we used the corresponding Feeder Group 5 year Facility Renewal plan • For each school we annualized the impact of that spending.

i Prepared for the Township of Edwardsburgh Cardinal I 10


Economic Results - Operational Spending

The overall net negative results (from the perspective of the local communities) have been identified as follows:

• There would be net job loss of 7 Full Time Equivalent (FTE) jobs in Edwards burgh Cardinal .

• Total net spending decrease within the region and locality was $2.7 million. This is a very large economic hit for the local community to absorb. For perspective, consider that the entire Edwardsburgh Cardinal township budget is only $9.5 million.

• The net municipal government decrease was $49,000. This reflects decreased property tax collections, and multipliers from indirect spending lost.

• The net provincial government decrease was $281,000. This reflects lower PST collections, and lower corporate/personal income tax. The loss to the provincial government in Edwards burgh Cardinal specifically would actually be higher, but this will be offset to some extent by spending now moving to other Ontario jurisdictions. For example, a educational assistant moving to Prescott to teach there will no longer be spending in the township, but will still spend in Ontario. On the other hand, corporate PST on any planned building renewal contracting will be lost completely.

• The net federal government loss was $247,000. This reflects lower income and GST tax collections. Once again, in Edwardsburgh Cardinal specifically, the loss to the federal government would be higher, but this will be partly compensated by new spending elsewhere in Ontario (or Canada).

• These figures include future planned renewal spending, now to be foregone, which makes up a significant portion of the loss to the community.



Economic Results -Why These Results Are the Minimum That Can Be Expected

The overall results above are very non-positive, but they are the minimum that can be expected. There may be even worse effects over time, as follows:

• While we have accounted for school-related staff to move from the local community if the school closes, other families (e.g., student families), may well also move. This is particularly so when you consider the comments by people regarding bussing. If only 10% of the current students' families move, then the local community will lose approximately 10 families, representing 23 persons at the township average. It will be very difficult to replace these people in the local area in the absence of adequate schooling.

• If 10 families move, this will result in additional losses of at least $500,000 annually in local spending. Taking into account the indirect and induced effects illustrated by the model runs, the total loss from this factor will be at least $600,000 annually.

• More significant than the loss of existing families is the population growth foregone. A planned development in Cardinal is specifically being geared to new, younger families seeking starter homes, exactly the type of people attracted to public schools. The developer has stated categorically that he will need to carefully revisit his business plan if the local school, a key selling feature to his target market, is closed.

• This pull back is despite the fact that Cardinal is the only location along the river with significant serviced land to build on. It seems clear that a lack of local schools will very likely impact local growth.

• Over the planned 10 year span of the project, the loss from10 new homes not built, including services, materials, and local construction labour, amounts to $3.6 million annually, including $211,000 in municipal revenue and $507,000 in Provincial revenue.

• If these two factors are taken into account, even at their lowest values, the grand total loss rises from $2.7 million to $6.9 million.

I

I Prepared for the Township of Edwardsburgh Cardinal I 12


Economic Results - Wealth Effects

There is a third set of negative impacts - what can be called "wealth effects":

• Research with local realtors indicated that in Edwardsburgh Cardinal area, as an illustration, typically there are 45-50 properties for sale at any one time in the year. They may also be available for rent.

• Typically also, as an illustration, there are about the same number of sales per year as there are properties for sale at any given time, i.e., up to 50 or thereabouts.

• Ifwe assume that some or all ofthe 7 workers, now-displaced from their permanent jobs by the school closures, along with some student families, move themselves and their families out of the local area, 15 new property listings for sale or rent will enter the market.

• The new total of properties available for sale or rent would represent a 30% increase in total listings. Although speculative, and acknowledging no-one can project with certainty, Doyletech would assume as reasonable a factor of 0.2 demand elasticity, i.e., a doubling of supply would require a meaningful price depreciation to retain comparative sales volume.

• Discussions with local realtors and real estate valuators across rural eastern Ontario indicates that this is possible.



Our Methodology for Social and Cultural Assessment

In addition to the economic effects, there are social and cultural effects associated with school closures in rural areas. Our methodology of illuminating such impacts in Edwardsburgh Cardinal involved the following:

• The project team researched academic and research literature for key impact areas from school closures as they pertain to rural communities.

• Approximately 15 local residents were surveyed for their inputs to provide context particular to Edwardsburgh Cardinal. We adapted a structured survey instrument that we have used several times before for similar projects. This survey instrument related directly to the various categories of impacts that were illuminated by the academic and research literature scan.

• The result was strong anecdotal evidence to backstop the academic research.

The social and cultural environmental scan particularly sought answers in three key areas (although these were not the only ones researched):

• • •

The impact of larger schools on student performance . The impact of larger school catchment areas on student engagement. The impact of larger school catchment areas on parent engagement.


Impact of Prospective School Closures in Edwardsburgh Cardinal, Ontario

Social and Cultural Effects Student Performance -What the Research says:

First, from Lauzon and Leahy, University of Guelph, A Review of the Literature, the academic literature does not show larger schools are more effective at educating students:

• Raywid (1999: 1}, reflecting on comparing small schools with large schools, writes: These studies confirmed that students learn more and better in small schools. Students make more rapid progress toward graduation. They are more satisfied with small schools, and fewer of them drop out than from the larger schools. Students behave better in smaller schools, which thus experience fewer instances of minor and serious infractions.

• Furthermore [the authors write] as these studies-of-studies show, it is rare to find empirical support or justification for the large high school. All ofthese things [the study's authors] have confirmed with a clarity and at a level of confidence rare in the annals of education research (1999: 1).

• For special needs: It has also been argued that ... larger schools can offer special programs for disadvantaged and disabled students. Despite the presence of these programs, lrmsher (1997) reports that they often lead to isolating these students and cutting them off from the main culture of the school.

• Education is about more than simply classroom learning. Much of the education of students occurs as a result of being an active and participating member of a community.



Social and Cultural Effects Student Performance -What people had to say*:

• "The school (Benson) has had an amazing tum around. From a time when few parents would choose it for their children, it now has top notch programs and staff. We don't need something shiny and new. It's the people that make the difference.

• The reputation of the school is reflected in the fact that so many supply teachers choose it.

• Although it's a small school, with the upcoming businesses moving in I'd target 150 kids in Benson in the next few years

• Having a close connection to the school makes it much easier to keep teachers accountable for their responsibilities to kids. A small school makes it less likely that kids will fall through the cracks.

• Can small schools really provide the programs they're mandated to provide? If so, then doesn't the choice of school come down to extra curricular activities?

• What impact has eliminating catchment boundaries had on the student population at each school?

• Reject the premise that more programs equates to a better result".

* The comments listed on this and subsequent slides are paraphrased from the stakeholder interviews conducted as part of this study.



Social and Cultural Effects Student Engagement- What the research says:

Second, again from Lauzon and Leahy, University of Guelph, A Review of the Literature:

• Cotton (1996) found that only a 17% increase in the variety of program offerings is realized as a result of a 100% increase in enrollment. Furthermore, it is found that most students rarely utilize the opportunity for a more diverse program

• Consolidation that leads to bussing, particularly across long distances, may have negative impacts upon student performance and health. For example, Fox (1996 quoted in Zars, 1998) writes that as time on the bus increases, students participate in fewer non-essential activities (those activities other than sleep, personal care, school, and the bus ride) .... The individuals with large average times on a bus report lower grades and poorer levels of fitness, fewer social activities and poor study habits. The universal complaint by all students is the loss of choice in activities and the overall loss of sleep.



Social and Cultural Effects Student Engagement - What people had to say:

• "In a larger school, participation in extracurricular activities such as sports is harder. You may have more choice but now you have tryouts that limit the chance for borderline kids to engage. In a smaller school every kid has a chance.

• Without the school, all the great new facilities built by the township will have no kids to use them

• We could make much more use of the schools after hours, but the rules and the costs together pretty much eliminate them as an option

• Bussing is a huge issue. Beyond the traffic on Highway 2, it's the issue of time spent on the bus (especially for little kids), and how that limits their choices in after school activities

• As well, bussing can be stressful for kids, given the noise and bullying that sometimes occurs. Bus drivers are paid to drive, not act as early childhood educators.

• Bussing is a last choice. Some will move closer to schools and some will drive their kids to school.

• When you are looking at participation in a rural area, you can't just look at the school. When you consider kids can walk to arenas, libraries, the youth centre, and other community facilities, all these places become an extension of the programming kids receive".



Social and Cultural Effects Parent Engagement- What the research says:

Again from Lauzon and Leahy, University of Guelph, A Review of the Literature:

• Sell et al. (1996) comparing communities where a school was closed with the communities who were the recipients of these students in their community schools, they found that the host communities' community organization participation increased while vacated communities' participation declined.

• As well, parents in the vacated communities had less parent-teacher contact than the host communities and participated in less school activities.



Social and Cultural Effects Parent Engagement - What people had to say:

• "Parent support is terrific. Considering it's a small school of 80 children, there are 34 volunteers on the school committee.

• This support translates into programming beyond that supplied by the board, such as the scientist in the classroom project.

• Teachers, staff and the local community are integrated into the school, helping with activities such as the Church fundraising supper.

• A large majority of Cardinal parents work outside the community, making a local school important for access and transportation.

• The makeup of the community is changing: It's becoming younger as more families move in.

• It's always difficult for parents to be involved, given the stresses of modem life. Adding a long commute to that participation just makes it that much harder.

• I wouldn't be surprised if25-30% of the community interacts with school in one form or another. That's a huge benefit to people and a reason they choose rural schools

• Closing schools may not affect population growth, but it certainly will affect the make up. Instead of families putting down roots, you get older people looking to retire in a lower cost area".



Social and Cultural Effects Links between economic and social effects:

In addition to the impact social and cultural effects have on their own, the research shows that they are in fact also closely tied to the economic impacts:

• From Howley, Johnson and Petrie, Ohio State University, 2011, was a recent school-size study by an economist that directly linked the effects of changes in size to student achievement.

• This study, which examined "shocks to enrollment" (increases and decreases, via either consolidation with another school or by removing grades), found that increasing the size of Indiana elementary schools (partly by school consolidations) lowered student achievement significantly, with a predictable future economic cost ..... [that] far outweighed the marginal fiscal savings of not sustaining smaller schools

• Accordingly, the overall research literature does not support the supposition that education is subject to "economies of scale". Education may even be subject to "diseconomies of scale" because not only is there no improvement and perhaps even a deterioration in student's performance, but also there may be new, negative, behaviour issues that were not present in the smaller facility.



Social and Cultural Effects - Conclusions.

Our surveys found these conclusions were commonly perceived and identified by local parents, teachers, and other education stakeholders.

-People have made a conscious choice to live in a rural area because of the benefits that accrue from that lifestyle. They accept that sometimes that means having a different standard and different availability of many things when compared to urban areas.

-The imposition of a common approach across rural and urban boards imposes a cost penalty on rural areas that is being made up for by a reduction in schools. There seems to be little appreciation for the link between this and the social cost to the affected communities.

-Notwithstanding that, because of the tight link between schools and the communities, the resultant economic affects of school closures are comparatively huge, given the small size of many of the affected communities.

"Put simply, the loss of a school erodes a community's social and economic base--its sense of community, identity and democracy-and the loss permanently diminishes the community itself,

sometimes to the verge of abandonment"



Conclusions - The Consequences of School Closures in Edwards burgh Cardinal

• Using conservative economic assumptions, the economic loss to Edwardsburgh Cardinal from the prospective school closures is very large. The hit is likely to amount to between $2.7 million and $6.9 million in a local economy where the entire township budget is only $9.5 million. There will also be a permanent loss of 7 full-time equivalent jobs. These may even be restrained figures. The hit could be worse.

• The largest component of the economic loss comes from the impact of the school closings on the decision of families with school age children to live in the area.

• Edwards burgh Cardinal is one of the few Eastern Ontario regions with positive economic growth prospects. The lack of schools in local communities will definitely act as an impediment to that growth.

• There will be major negative social impacts, involving a loss of sports, extra-curricular activities, and a severe loss of self-identification within the local community.

• There does not appear to be a convincing case for these school closures in Edwards burgh Cardinal, in light of the above-summarized negative economic impacts, family disruptions, the prospect of students' educations and extra curricular activities being compromised through long bus rides, and the additional costs of future dealings with special needs and "at-risk" children. The latter dimensions are entirely above and beyond the quantified economic impacts described above. It is going to be a huge economic and social hit.

• In sum, the impact of the proposed school closings will be to exacerbate the "hollowing out effect " in this rural area. That is not in the interests of municipal, provincial or federal governments.


TOWNSHIP OF EDWARDSBURGH CARDINAL January 23, 2017

Resolution Number: 2017 - \ 0

~:::d:~Bt~ WHEREAS the Upper Canada District School Board (UCDSB) has commenced a Pupil Accommodation Review (PAR) study that may result in the closure of many schools across the UCDSB; and WHEREAS rural schools are an integral part to the future of rural communities in Ontario; and WHEREAS Provincial Policies direct all development to settlement areas such as Cardinal and Johnstown, provide funds for rural economic development, and directs creation of programs to foster vibrant rural economies; and WHEREAS the Township of Edwardsburgh/Cardinal has invested significant resources in attracting new businesses to the municipality, notably the Johnstown Industrial Park, which is one of only three Regionally Significant Employment Areas designated in the United Counties of Leeds and Grenville Official Plan; NOW THEREFORE BE IT RESOLVED THAT that the Council of the Township of Edwardsburgh/Cardinal approves and supports the Municipal School Closures submission letter, and urges the Upper Canada District School Board, the Provincial Government of Ontario and the Minister of Education to take into consideration the community, economic, and geographic implications of the proposed school closures; and BE IT FURTHER RESOLVED THAT a copy of this resolution and the submission letter be forwarded to the Premier of Ontario, the Minister of Education, MPP Steve Clark, UCDSB Director of Education Stephen Sliwa, UCDSB Chairman Jeff McMillan, UCDSB Ward 6 Trustee Lisa Swan, UCDSB Superintendent of District Alignment Phil Dawes, municipalities in Leeds-Grenville, and the United Counties of Leeds and Grenville.

/carried o Defeated dnanimous

Mayor: \"\)~~ \;)

' \ /" RECORDED VOTE REQU,STED BY: \..... I \J tJ Cl L...L. 0' (\ 0 ..4-{t K e. t 7·

NAME .'· \ YEA NAY

Councillor M. Barrett v Councillor G. Morrell v-Councillor K. Smail v Deputy Mayor P. Taylor t/ Mayor Sayeau v TOTAL

I

p.o. box 129. ec edwardsburgh cardinal 18 centre st. ca · lwp ec edwardsburgh cardinal • ca to:...

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