polabour mobility within the eu: causes, directions and … · erste group bank ag oe 0196 0337...

ERSTE GROUPBANK AG

OE 0196 0337 page 1 November 17-18, 2008

„Labour Mobility within the EU: Causes, Directions and Constraints“

Rainer MünzErste Group Bank AG, Head of Research & Development

Conference on European Economic Integration 2008 (CEEI) Vienna, November 17-18, 2008

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page 2 CEEINovember 17-18, 200801960337 / R. Münz

Past and PresentTrends

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page 3 CEEINovember 17-18, 200801960337 / R. Münz Quelle: UN Population Division 2000; Darstellung: Humboldt-Universität Berlin

.

-2 to 00 to +2+2 to +5

below -5-5 to -2

over +5

Net Migration in Europe, 1950-1960 (annual rate per 1000 inhabitants)

Source: Eurostat, UN

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.

-2 to 00 to +2+2 to +5

below -5-5 to -2

over +5



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Net Migration in Europe, proj. 2008-2020 (annual rate per 1000 inhabitants)

.

-2 to 00 to +2+2 to +5

below -5-5 to -2

over +5


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Main Drivers

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Main drivers of intra-EU labor mobility

Imbalances

− Wages− Employment opportunities

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Regional GDP per capita at PPP, 2005

below 1000010000 - 1500015000 - 2000020000 - 2500025000 - 30000above 30000

Source: European Commission

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below 6565 - 7070 - 7272 - 7474 - 76above 76

Regional GDP per capita at PPP, 2005

Source: European Commission

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Pro-active recruitment policies; for example:

− during the 1960s and 1970s in most parts of North-Western Europe

− since the mid-1990s in the UK and Ireland

− more general, for agricultural labor

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Path dependency and cultural proximity:

− Past migration trends – to a certain extent – determine current trends

− Cultural and linguistic proximity plays a role

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Framework

− freedom of settlement within EU 27− access to labor markets within EU 27

(partly restricted for citizens of EU 10 countries)

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European migration regime by citizenship / country of origin and destination country

.

über -2 bis 0über 0 bis +2über +2 bis +5

EU 2 citizens

free access for EU 10 and partly for EU 2

EU 10 citizenstransitional regime with exceptions

liberalized regime EEA+CH

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Current Situation:Country Details

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Countries with strong increase of intra-EU migrants

Italy

0 5 10 15 20

RomaniaAlbania

MoroccoPoland

ChinaBrazil

MoldovaUkraine

United S tatesIndia

0 5 10 15 20

Spain

0 5 10 15 20

RomaniaBolivia

MoroccoUnited Kingdom

BrazilColombiaArgentina

PeruPortugalBulgaria

0 5 10 15 20

Source: OECD

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Bosnia and Herzegovina

Austria

0 5 10 15 20

GermanySerbia and Montenegro

PolandTurkey

RomaniaHungary

Slovak Republic

CroatiaItaly

0 5 10 15 20

Germany

0 5 10 15 20 25 30

PolandTurkey

RomaniaHungary

ItalyRussian Federation

United StatesChina

FranceSlovak Republic

0 5 10 15 20 25 30

Source: OECD

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Netherlands

0 5 10 15

GermanyPoland

United KingdomUnited States

ChinaTurkey

IndiaFrance

MoroccoBelgium

0 5 10 15

Belgium

0 5 10 15 20

France

Netherlands

Morocco

Poland

Germany

Romania

Turkey

Italy

United States

Portugal

0 5 10 15 20Source: OECD

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Countries with increase of migrants from the neighbourhood

Denmark (2005)

0 5 10 15

GermanyPoland

NorwayChina

Iceland

Sweden

UkraineUnited Kingdom

United States

Lithuania

0 5 10 15

Sweden

0 5 10 15

IraqPoland

DenmarkSerbia and Montenegro

SomaliaGermany

FinlandNorway

ThailandIran

0 5 10 155 10

Source: OECD

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France

0 5 10 15 20

Algeria

Morocco

Turkey

Tunisia

CameroonChina

Congo

Côte d'Ivoire

Mali

Haiti

0 5 10 15 20

Switzerland

0 5 10 15 20 25

GermanyPortugal

FranceItaly

Serbia and MontenegroUnited Kingdom

United StatesTurkeyAustria

Spain

0 5 10 15 20 25


Source: OECD

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Poland

0 5 10 15 20 25 30

UkraineGermany

BelarusRuss ian Federation

Viet NamArmenia

United S tatesIndia

TurkeyBulgaria

0 5 10 15 20 25 30

Hungary

0 10 20 30 40 50

RomaniaUkraine

ChinaGermany

Serbia and MontenegroSlovak Republic

Aus triaViet Nam

IsraelUnited States

0 10 20 30 40 50


Source: OECD

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Slovakia

0 5 10 15 20

Czech RepublicPolandUkraine

GermanySerbia and Montenegro

ChinaHungary

KoreaViet Nam

Austria

0 5 10 15 20

Czech Republic

0 10 20 30 40 50

Ukraine

Slovak Republic

Viet Nam

Russian Federation

Moldova

United S tates

Mongolia

China

Poland

Bulgaria

0 10 20 30 40 50

Slovakia


Source: OECD

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Current Situation:Overview

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Major sending countries in Europe

Since 2000− Romania− Bulgaria− Poland− Estonia, Lithuania− Slovakia− Germany

Outside EU 27/EEA− Ukraine− Moldova

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0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7%

CZHULVSI

SKPLEELT

Intra-EU mobility of labor

Estimated size of CE work force working abroad in EU 15, 2006

BGRO

Source: WIIW. Eurostat, OECD

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Major receiving countries in Europe

Since 2000− Spain− UK− Italy− Germany − Ireland− Austria

Outside EU 27/EEA− Russia− Switzerland

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Selected Migration Flows in Europe (2006)

Source: Eurostat, National statistics, Berlin Institute

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Selected Effects

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EU 12 &15: Total population size 1960-2007 (1960=100)

100%

105%

110%

115%

120%

125%

130%

1960

1963

1966

1969

1972

1975

1978

1981

1984

1987

1990

1993

1996

1999

2002

2005

EU12 EU15 Source: Eurostat

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90100110120130140150160170

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007

Employment GDP

90100110120130140150160170

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007

Employment GDPEU-10EU-15

Employment and GDP growth in Europe (1995 = 100)

Sou

rce:

wiiw

Dat

abas

e

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Change in employment levels2000-2005 in %

Source: Eurostat, Berlin Institute

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4

8

12

16

20

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

CZ HU PL SK SI BG RO

Source: wiiw Database, Eurostat

Unemployment rates in CE 2000-2007

LFS, annual average (in %)

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Employment rates by citizenship2007 in %

Source: LFS, Berlin Institute

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Workers remittances to selected CE + SEE countries (2007 in € bn)

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

Romania Serbia Bosnia Her. Bulgaria Croatia Albania

Rem

ittan

ces

in €

bn

Source: World Bank, IMF, MPI

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Woman per 100 men (2006)

xxxbelow

and more

Source: Eurostat, Berlin Institute

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Rainer MünzResearch & Development

Erste Group Bank [email protected]

Contact

polabour mobility within the eu: causes, directions and … · erste group bank ag oe 0196 0337...

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