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Policies For Growth

& Stability of Pakistan’s Economy

May 29, 2011

Author: Muhammad Ali Nisar

Committee: Economics

Dossier # 001

Version # 001

Nature of Document: Plan

IRW Insaf Research Wing

Finding solutions for a better Pakistan

Insaf Research Wing

Central Secretariat

Street No. 84,

Sector G-6/4,

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Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf

Committee on Economics Policies for Growth & Stability of Pakistan’s Economy

Insaf Research Wing

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Insaf Research Wing

Table of Contents

Introduction 04

Overview of Pakistan’s Economy 04

Price Instability 4-5

Unemployment 5-6

Production (output) Growth 6-7

Twin Deficits (Fiscal & Balance of Payment 7-8

Financial Instability 8-9

Recommendations/Suggestions 9-11

Bibliography 12


Insaf Research Wing

Policies for Growth & Stability of Pakistan’s Economy

Introduction

Economic growth and stability are the basic

objectives of any government. Macroeconomic

policies are formulated to achieve these

economic objectives. Performance of

political administration can be easily gauged by

their success in achievement of the following

economy objectives:

Price stability & Inflation control

Employment

Growth in National Production

Balance of Payment Equilibrium

Stability in Financial Sector

Financial sector plays an important role in

t h e development of all other sectors of t h e

economy. After the recent financial crisis (2008-

2009), the stability of t h e financial sector

has gained almost the same weight on

government priorities list as any other area of

concern. The crisis started from the burst of

housing market bubble caused by the

subprime mortgage markets and ended in a

deepest recession since the great depression

of the 1930s.

To achieve the economic growth and stability

economics policies are used as tools. These

are Fiscal policies, Monetary policies and

Trade policies or direct control policies like

tariffing, quotas etc. In most countries

monetary policy is formulated by Central

Banks, fiscal policy by Treasury or Ministry of

Finance and direct policies by Ministry of

Commerce. Similarly in Pakistan monetary

policy is the responsibility of State Bank of

Pakistan (SBP), Fiscal policy is formulated by

t h e Ministry of Finance and direct control

policies are formulated by the Ministry of

Commerce.

Overview of Pakistan’s Economy

Pakistan has been categorized as

impoverished and a n underdeveloped

country by the CIA World Fact (2010). The

total volume of Pakistan’s GDP according to

CIA statistics (2010) was $ 174.8 Billion with

the per capita income of $ 1049 (IMF: 2010)

which is quite low. The population has

reached to 170 Millions (approx) and big

proportion of population about 24% (2005-06)

is living below poverty line. Public debt has

reached to $ 58 billion in 2010. The debt to

GDP ratio is 49.9 % therefore a huge

proportion of total government budget goes to

serve the cost of debt. The performance of

Pakistani economic policies could be easily

judged by the unsuccessful story of economic

objectives achievement in the following

paragraphs.

Price Instability

The role of price stability has mostly been

considered to be the responsibility o f

monetary authority. In his recent speech to

the Federation of Chamber of Commerce

and Industry, Governor of the State Bank of

Pakistan (SBP) declared price stability as a

fundamental objective of monetary policy

(Kardar: 2010). It seems State Bank of

Pakistan has not been very successful to

control inflation in t he past few years. One

of the major problems faced by the Pakistani

economy is t h e h i g h rate of inflation. A

dire part of inflation is food inflation, w h i c h

is more prominent than non-food items. Food

groups consist of 40% of t h e consumer price

index (CPI) and prices of food group items

have been increased by 86% from June 2007

to October 2010 (Kardar: 2010).


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Consumer Price Index (CPI)

FY General Food Non-Food

2008 12.0 17.6 7.9

2009 20.8 23.7 18.4

2010 11.7 12.5 11.1

Source: State Bank of Pakistan (SBP)

The inflation statistics of Federal Bureau of

Statistics (FBS) from January to January

each year tells the worsening situation.

Source: - Federal Bureau of Statistics (2011)

In countries like t h e U.K monetary authority

sets an inflation target e.g. inflation target of

Bank of England is CPI at 2%. If inflation

goes above or below the target by 1% the

Governor of the Bank of England has to

write a letter to the exchequer explaining

reasons for not meeting the target. Although

the recent rate of inflation was 4% the Bank

of England is consistent with its easy

monetary policy and all time low rate of

interest at 0.5%. The stance of fiscal authority

has been tight therefore it is expected to bring

down inflation by fiscal measures.

Particularly speaking about inflation in

Pakistan, although the discount rate has been

high at 14% since November 2010, but it

was a failed attempt to control inflation by

curtailing the growth of money supply. The

causes of inflation in general as

acknowledged by SBP in governor’s speech

(Kardar: 2010) were output gap, inflation

expectation and cost-push. Moreover over it

was also accepted that the high interest

rates and government spending and deficit

has crowded out the private sector

investment and growth. But the excuse given

for tight monetary policy was that as the

energy crises and law and order conditions

are not ve ry f a v o r a b l e i t i s less l i ke ly

t h a t the pr iva te s e c t o r w o u l d be

encouraged by the low interest rates. In very

mild language the government’s trade policy

(support price of wheat) was also criticized.

An interesting point here is although the SBP

agrees that tight monetary policy is harmful for

economic growth lead by private investment

and reason of inflation is not growth in money

supply, yet the bank is persistent on its

contractionary stance. In a latest statement

made by the SBP (2011) structural deficit

and excessive government borrowing from

SBP w e r e s t a t e d as reasons for high

inflation and external account imbalance.

On empirical grounds analyzing money

supply behavior in Pakistan, Ahmad & Ahmed

(2006) discouraged the idea of active

monetary policy and recommended unisons

with other intuitions. Considering all these

factors, tight stance of monetary policy

cannot be justified. The recent academic

research in t h e role of fiscal policy to

control inflation also urges to use fiscal

measure for price stability. Research on

French and British economic policies by Creel

et al. (2009) showed that fiscal policy may

dominate the monetary policy without having

any negative influence. It seems that poor

fiscal discipline in Pakistan has resulted in a

NASH between fiscal and monetary authority,

which is causing economic instability.

Unemployment

Creation of employment opportunities is

expected from elected governments. Although

full employment does not exist because of a

natural rate of unemployment, which is the

level at which the demand of labour is at

equilibrium with t h e supply of labour.

However the average rate of unemployment

in Pakistan from 1990 to 2009 has been

5.88% (Federal Bureau of Statistics), which is

quite high. Moreover unlike developed


Insaf Research Wing

countries there is no job seeker support o r

allowance for the unemployed in Pakistan. In

present situation the rate of unemployment is

very high reflected by the following statistics:

Rate of Unemployment (2003- 2011)

Year Unemployment Rate

(%)

Change

(%)

2003 7.80

2004 7.70 (1.28)

2005 8.30 7.79

2006 6.60 (20.48)

2007 6.50 (1.52)

2008 5.60 (13.85)

2009 7.40 32.14

2010 14.00 89.14

2011 15.00 7.14

Source: CIA World Fact book

Unemployment has increased by 168% since

2008. There are various reasons for high

unemployment rate in Pakistan; low

investment, low savings, energy crisis, low

industrial growth, and use of machinery in

agriculture sector, poor law and order situation,

unfriendly environment for Small and Medium

Enterprises (SME’s). Last year’s devastating

floods are another major cause of high

unemployment in affected areas of Pakistan.

Most of the factors are correlated with each

other; industry could not grow without

investment, uninterrupted energy supply at low

cost and easy availability of factors of

production including capital. The very high

interest rates in this regard discourage private

sector investment decision.

Production (output) Growth

Pakistan is a developing country and in

nominal GDP ranking it is at 47 position in

the world. The GDP growth had been very

slow in the last few years.

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Constant Prices

Year GDP Growth (%)

2003 4.86

2004 7.38

2005 7.67

2006 6.15

2007 5.64

2008 1.64

2009 3.37

2010 4.79

Source: IMF World Economic Outlook (2010)

The period of moderate growth from 2004-07

did not last long and growth slumped in 2008.

Increasing population also fads away the

economic growth’s impact on society. If we

decompose the GDP, services (including

public sector and defense services)

contributed more than half of total towards

national income.

Pakistan Gross Domestic Production

(Sector wise)

Agriculture

Industry

Services

Agriculture (21.8%) - Industry (23.6%) - Services

(54.6%)

Global financial crises and sluggish growth may

have contributed to the deterioration of

Pakistan’s economic growth; however, as

compared to the other developing and

emerging economies in the region e.g. India

and China, Pakistan’s performance has been

very poor.

A country like Pakistan where there are plenty

of resources available, contribution of

agriculture and industry is highly insignificant.


Insaf Research Wing

Slow growth and poor contribution of

agriculture and industry to the national income

also results in poor contribution to tax revenues

and exports. It further results in twin deficits

i.e. fiscal and balance of payment.

Twin Deficits (Fiscal & Balance of

Payment

Pakistan is running a deficit in its both

balance of payment and fiscal account. The

debt to GDP has risen to 49.9% with $ 58

billion of external debt. The statistics

released by SBP (2011) showed that deficit

commitment at the beginning of fiscal year

was 4% of GDP (Rs. 685 billion) after t h e

floods to 4.7% of GDP (Rs. 812 billion).

Moreover the deficit in current account was

$ 3.9 billion in 2010.

The trade imbalance (exports minus imports)

was $ 11.5 billion, which has made significant

contribution towards the current account

deficit.

A major positive contribution was remittances

of $ 8.9 billion, which absorbed the trade

imbalance to some extent. It is worth

mentioning here that in Coalition Support Fund

(CSF) only $ 0.743 billion were realized.

Exports growth had been faster (2.9%) than

imports which declined by -1.7 %.

If we look on the balance of payment account

it is very clear that major reason of deficit is

trade imbalance, imports are well above the

exports. Therefore, even the huge

remittances could not fully balance the trade.

It is usefu l to ment ion here that the

remittances are less volatile than other

elements of balance of payment account as

overseas Pakistanis consistently make

contribution. Therefore we need to focus more

on trade imbalances.

The credit availed by the private sector during

2nd quarter of FY- 2011 increased to Rs211

billion which was Rs199 billion in the

corresponding period last year. It could be a

positive sign if it had been due to easy and

cheap availability of capital. But it was an

increased cost of production (including

expensive imports), which compelled private

sector to borrow at high cost of capital. The

credit for working capital rose to 97% in t h e

first half of FY-2011 as compared to the

same period in previous year, but the credit

for fixed investment declined from Rs. 43.4

billions to Rs. 6.7 billion. Another problem

visible in the banking sector is the decline in

credit to deposit ratio although the deposits in

banking sector increased. Most probably it has

been due to the high level of nonperforming

loans wh ich reached close to Rs 500 in the

first quarter of the current financial year

(SBP: 2011), which discouraged banks to

lend to private sector. Moreover, the high

demands of public sector enterprises also

limited the availability of credit to the private

sector.

Alarmingly the government borrowing from

SBP increased to 1500 billion in mid

December (SBP: 2011). This shows a huge

disproportion between public and private

sector borrowing, which indicates that tight

monetary policy, is discouraging private

sector to contribute to national income a n d

job creat ion. Although t h e private sector is

more efficient and innovative than public

sector but the motivation is profit. High cost

of production and energy crisis adversely

effects private sector initiatives and results in

huge trade imbalances

In future the government’s intention to reduce

its deficit, which could ease the inflation

pressure, seems unrealistic. The reforms on

general sales tax (GST) have been postponed,

moreover continuous subsidy on energy and

legal restrictions on government borrowing

limit have not been implemented. It clearly

shows that the government is not going

further with its own plans due to its credibility

and political unpopularity.


Insaf Research Wing

Source: SBP Monetary Policy Statement (2011)

Government ambition to increase tax

revenue seems impractical because of high

level of tax evasion, Rs. 796 billion according

to the World Bank reports. This amounts to

huge tax avoidance, approximately equal to

the annual budget deficit. In this scenario

increasing taxes or introduction of new taxes

would discourage current taxpayers. In the 1st

and 2nd

quarter of the current financial year

the revenue growth was 11.2% and 15%

whereas the target was 26% annual growth.

The total target of revenue collection was Rs.

1667 b illion but FBR collected on l y Rs. 661

b illion in t h e first half of the year (SBP:

2011). On the expenditure side there had

been considerable reductions made in

development heads. However there had been

huge subsidies given in energy, food and

transfers. The reduction in development

budget would negatively affect future

prospect of the economy. According to SBP

(2011) subsidies could result in further losses

of RS 25 to Rs. 35 billion by the end of fiscal

term. There has been no progress made in

the plan to raise Rs. 55 billion from t h e

issuance of new technology license to mobile

companies. This situation has created a

huge fiscal imbalance, which is growing

consistently and in future could be a major

problem for the Pakistani economy.

Financial Instability

After t h e recent banking crisis (2008-09) in

major economies of the world started by the

financial services industry. The role of the

financial sector in economic growth and

stability cannot be neglected. A s a r e s u l t

economic stability is now associated with

financial stability.

The banking sector i n P a k i s t a n is

supervised and regulated by t h e State

Bank of Pakistan (SBP). There are 41

scheduled banks, 6 development finance

intuitions, and 2 micro finance banks

operating in Pakistan. Banks are to maintain

minimum paid up capital level of Rs.1 Billion

and reserve requirement ration of 5%. This

seems quite reasonable to encourage

lending. According to SBP (2011), in banking

sector the non performing loans (NPLs) have

reached near to level of Rs. 500 billions. Due

to high discount rate, law and order situation,

energy crisis and mostly importantly political

influence, the banking sector could not

provide substantial capital support to the

production sector (agriculture & industry). At

present, the government borrowing from July

2010 - Jan 2011 has been Rs. 355.2 billion,

which contributed about 78% in monetary

expansion. The government has not only

become a major user of banking resources

but also causing inflationary pressure by

excessive borrowing.

The dream of Islamic banking in Pakistan is as

old as Pakistan itself. Even in the constitution

of the Islamic Republic of Pakistan article

38(f) states that: “The State shall eliminate

riba as early as possible.” In 1980s efforts


Insaf Research Wing

were made to introduce Islamic banking in

Pakistan but the model failed due to certain

reasons wh ic h cannot be covered under

the scope of this paper. However in January

2002 new license was issued to Al-Meezan

Investment Bank Ltd to open a fully

operational Meezan Islamic Bank. At present

there are 6 licensed Islamic Banks (IBs) and

12 conventional banks w h i c h have licenses

to operate Islamic banking branches (IBBs).

According to SBP1

the total assets of the

Islamic banking industry are over Rs. 225

billion as of 30th June 2008, which accounts

for a market share of 4.5% of t h e total

banking industry assets. Total branch

network of the industry comprises more than

330 branches with presence in over 50 cities

and towns covering all the four provinces of

the country and AJK. The development of

Islamic banking in Pakistan is appreciable;

however there is a lot more this sector can

contribute to the economy in future.

The Small & Medium Enterprises (SMEs)

play an important role in economic

development; Taiwan, Korea and China are

prime examples of the role of SMEs in the

development of these counties. In Pakistan

unfortunately t h e financial sector has not

played significant role to improve SMEs

culture. There had been two institutions

established SMEDA and SME Bank, however

poor condition of SMEs reflects performance of

these institutions. Although there are some

measures SBP is considering taking e.g.

d ra f t p ru de n t i a l regulations for the SMEs,

consideration of the credit information bureau

and urging banks to lend to the SMEs;

however no efforts have been made practical.

Together w i t h the energy crisis, law and

order situation, high inflation and limited

availabil ity of low cost capital to the SMEs,

there are no signs of development in this

sector.

There are three stock markets in Pakistan;

Karachi Stock Exchange is the largest with

total capitalization of Rs. 3, 388, 801, 907 .65

and 655 listed companies. However the

1http://www.sbp.org.pk/departments/pdf/Strategic

PlanPDF/Strategy%20Paper-Final.pdf

volatility of market is very high KSE-100 index

has declined from 15500 points in April to

2008 to below 5000 points in January

2009, although it has significantly

recovered in January 2011(Bloomberg: 2011)2.

This level of volatility discourages investors;

poor law and order situation, sluggish

industrial growth and insiders trading are

major problems for Pakistani stock markets.

Tight monetary policy (high interest rates)

also negatively affects stock markets by

announcement and credit channels. Moreover

the discounted value of future profits also

decreases, which discourages investment in

the equity markets. These effects are

prominent in Pakistani markets since the SBP

tightened its stance3.

Recommendations

Considering the present situation of the

Pakistani economy. The author would like to

make the following recommendations.

Monetary Policy

1) The State Bank must abandon its tight

monetary policy to support economic growth

and development. As it is acknowledged by

the SBP that the inflation is not due to

excessive monetary growth but other factors

e.g. fiscal deficit, energy crisis and supply

shock. There is no reason to adopt a tight

monetary stance. It is important to mention

here that interest payment leaves less money

for tax deductions, therefore high interest rates

also results in less revenue for the treasury.

2) Banking sector should be encouraged to

supply liquidity to the production sector

(agriculture & industry) and investment

activities. Interest rates must be dropped

significantly to enable banking sector to

perform its role. Economic growth by these

measures would stabilize economy by

decreasing output gap and bringing down

prices by matching demand.

2http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=K

SE100:IND 3http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=news

archive&sid=aDFkw4sRLuk8&refer=world_indic

es

http://www.sbp.org.pk/departments/pdf/StrategicPlanPDF/Strategy%20Paper-Final.pdf

http://www.sbp.org.pk/departments/pdf/StrategicPlanPDF/Strategy%20Paper-Final.pdf

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news


Insaf Research Wing

3) Particularly for the development of SMEs

and industry in rural areas, SBP should

provide loans to t h e banking sector at low

discount rates. Banks must be bound to use

these funds for SMEs and industry

development. Moreover, SMEs applying for

loans should be registered with the credit

rating agencies and their credit history

maintained.

Fiscal Policy

4) There should be a government spending

review to analyze each head of expenditure,

and efforts must be made to minimize

wasteful spending. Austerity measures should

be adopted at each level.

5) Tax evasion must be reduced; it would not

only overcome the deficit of budget but also

bring down inflation. The empirical research

also supports even prefers the role of the fiscal

policy in inflation control instead of tight

monetary policy.

Trade Policy

6) The subsidies e.g. wheat price support puts

huge pressure on the exchequer as the rich

class does not pay any tax and the salaried

class bear the burden. Therefore, subsidies

should be gradually eliminated. To keep low

prices, export and smuggling of these items

should not be allowed. Moreover, imports

from the international markets must be

allowed either at low tariff or no tariff to

match the demand and keep the price at

equilibrium. Best example is the sugar crisis

when artificial supply shock surged the prices

to record high levels.

7) The stance of t h e government has been

to cut the demand to keep the prices low,

which is against the concept of welfare. The

supply should be increased to keep the prices

low; an example could be allowing import of

foods items and issuance of license to open

new sugar mills.

8) In the automobile industry, there must be no

restriction on automobile imports. Government

can generate huge amount of revenues by

putting tariffs on automobile and their part

imports. Moreover road tax particularly on

vehicles would contribute to increasing

revenue.

9) In Information Technology, gaming is a big

industry, investment in professional education

to develop a work force specialized in game

software development would be very useful.

Furthermore, financial support to software

houses would also help to develop and grow

this industry.

Islamic Banking

10) To shift more towards Islamic banking, the

current Islamic banks should be facilitated.

Banks are advised and allowed to open new

branches particularly in rural area. Islamic

and conventional banking could go side by side

to contribute in economic growth. It would not

only creates jobs but also provide liquidity

e s p e c i a l l y in those area where

conventional banking does not due to the

religious aspect.

Development Projects

11) Infrastructure projects should be started in

partnership with the private sector, particularly

in t h e energy and development sector. It

could be in the form of shared equity, to

initiate the project and when the revenues

are realized the private partner could

gradually return the public sector investment.

12) Pakistan must use each and every

source of energy production i.e. Solar,

Nuclear, Wind, Coal, Thermal etc. to produce

more energy than its domestic requirement. It

is important to mention here that Pakistan has

t h e potential to produce energy from almost

every source and importantly there is an

increasing need of electricity in India in future

(approx 950,000 MW4).

4http://www.monstersandcritics.com/news/energ

ywatch/news/article_1184013.php/India_envisa

ges_about_9500

00_MW_power_requirement_by_2030

http://www.monstersandcritics.com/news/energywatch/news/article_1184013.php/

http://www.monstersandcritics.com/news/energywatch/news/article_1184013.php/


Insaf Research Wing

Financial Stability

13) The role of Pakistan’s Security & Exchange

Commission (SEC) should be enhanced to

control the financial and corporate sector

instability. There should be an additional

department in SBP to work as a market

watchdog so that insider trading and illegal

activities could be monitored.

14) As part of privatization, IPO’s of public

sectors enterprises should be issued to

promote investment culture in Pakistan.

About the Author

The author is an economist by profession. He is

a graduate of BA Economics, MBA Finance,

MSc Finance, PHD Macroeconomic Policies

Interaction & Effects on Financial & Economic

Stability. He has 10 years professional work

experience in the field of economic and finance.

[E-mail: [email protected]]

mailto:[email protected]


Insaf Research Wing

Bibliogrpahy

Ahmad, N. & Ahmed, F. (2006) The Long-run

and Short-run Endogeneity of Money Supply in

Pakistan: An Empirical Investigation, SBP-

Research Bulletin, Volume 2, and Number 1.

Creel, J. Veroni, P.M., and Saraceno, F.

(2009) Fiscal policy is back in France and the

United Kingdom!, Journal of Post Keynesian

Economics / Summer , Vol. 31, No. 4 645.

Kardar, S. H (2010), Understanding Inflation

and SBP’s Monetary Policy Stance, Address

at the Federation of Pakistan Chamber of

Commerce and Industry, 13th December.

State Bank of Pakistan (2011), Monetary

Policy Statement, January.

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