Policy Paper Nr. 18angariSebi, analizi, rekomendaciebi

18-Tviani ekonomikuri programis mimdinareoba

saqarTveloSi saerTaSoriso savaluto fondis

STAND-BY-is meqanizmis farglebSi

angariSi momzadda koalicia

`gamWvirvale finansuri daxmareba saqarTvelos~ farglebSi

merab kakulia

1

angariSis Sesaxeb .......................................................................................2

Sesavali .....................................................................................................2

1. ssf-s programis formati ...................................................................5

1.1. programis ZiriTadi mizani .........................................................5

1.2. Tavdapirveli makroekonomikuri CarCo ....................................6

1.3. koreqtirebuli makroekonomikuri CarCo .................................7

1.4. fiskaluri politika ...................................................................9

1.5. monetaruli politika ............................................................... 10

1.6. gacvliTi kursis politika ....................................................... 12

1.7. sagareo vali ............................................................................... 13

2. programis monitoringis meqanizmi ................................................... 15

2.1. raodenobrivi kriteriumebi ..................................................... 15

2.2. struqturuli kriteriumebi .................................................... 16

2.3. struqturuli orientirebi ...................................................... 18

3. programul valdebulebaTa Sesruleba ........................................... 20

3.1. saerTaSoriso rezervebis dinamika .......................................... 20

3.2. erovnuli bankis wminda saSinao aqtivebi ................................ 24

3.3. konsolidirebuli mTavrobis sakaso deficiti ..................... 25

3.4. sagareo valTan dakavSirebuli raodenobrivi kriteriumebi ......26

3.5. safinanso seqtoris stabilurobasTan dakavSirebuli

struqturuli kriteriumebi da orientirebi ............................... 27

3.6. sxva struqturuli orientirebi .............................................. 28

daskvnebi da rekomendaciebi ................................................................. 29

sarCevi

2

angariSis Sesaxeb

Sesavali

winamdebare angariSi momzadda fondi `Ria sazogadoeba saqarTvelos~

finansuri mxardaWeriT, fondis Sida proeqtis farglebSi. amitom an-

gariSi gamoicema fondi `Ria sazogadoeba saqarTvelos~ seriis: `anga-

riSebi, analizi, rekomendaciebi~ farglebSi.

proeqti ganxorcielda koalicia `gamWvirvale finansuri daxmareba sa-

qarTvelos~ farglebSi, romlis damfuZnebeli da wevri organizaciebi

arian: `evraziis TanamSromlobis fondi~, `ekonomikuri politikis kv-

levis centri~, `kivitas georgika~, `mwvane alternativa~, `saerTaSori-

so gamWvirvaloba saqarTvelo~, `saqarTvelos axalgazrda iuristTa

asociacia~, `fondi Ria sazogadoeba saqarTvelo~. koaliciis wevrebi

arian aseve damoukidebel eqspertebi. koaliciis mizania xeli Seuwyos

saqarTvelosTvis donori qveynebisa da organizaciebis mier dapirebu-

li finansuri daxmarebis efeqtianobas da gamWvirvalobas. koaliciis

wevri organizaciebi aqtiurad muSaoben am mimarTulebiT.

warmodgenili angariSi koaliciis wevri organizaciis `fondi Ria sa-

zogadoeba saqarTvelos~ da koaliciis wevri eqspertis merab kakulias

mier momzadda.

2008 wlis 9 seqtembers saqarTvelos xelisuflebam oficialurad

TxovniT mimarTa saerTaSoriso savaluto fondis (ssf-s) direqtor-

ganmkargulebels 18-Tviani ekonomikuri programis safuZvelze Stand-by-is meqanizmis farglebSi 750 mln aSS dolaris (477.1 mln SDR-is1)

odenobis kreditis gamoyofis Sesaxeb. Txovnis uSualo mizezi gaxda

saomari moqmedebebi ruseTsa da saqarTvelos Soris 2008 wlis agvis-

toSi, ramac saqarTvelos mimarT investorTa ndobis da qveyanaSi ker-

1 SDRs (Special Drawing Rights) _ saaRricxvo erTeuli ssf-Si, romelic wevr qveynebs Soris aris

ganawilebuli am organizaciaSi maTi qvotebis Sesabamisad da warmoadgens saerTaSoriso

sarezervo aqtivs. SDR-is gacvliT kurss gansazRvravs ssf wamyvani valutebis (aSS dolari,

evro, ieni da girvanqa sterlingi) kalaTis safuZvelze.

3

Zo kapitalis wminda Semodinebis mkveTri Sesusteba gamoiwvia. Sedegad

warmoiSva saqarTvelos sagadamxdelo balansis didi finansuri garR-

vevis realuri saSiSroeba.

ssf-s aRmasrulebelma sabWom operatiulad ganixila aRniSnuli Txov-

na, romelic eyrdnoboda TandarTul memorandums 2008 da 2009 wlebSi

saqarTvelos ekonomikuri da finansuri politikis Sesaxeb2 da ukve 15

seqtembers miiRo gadawyvetileba misi dakmayoilebis Taobaze3.

aRsaniSnavia, rom saqarTvelos mier erTi wlis ganmavlobaSi moTxovni-

li Tanxis moculoba SeiZleboda meti yofiliyo ssf-Si qveynis qvotis

(150 mln SDR-i) 100 procentze, xolo mTlianad moTxovnili Tanxis

jamuri (kumulaturi) moculoba _ kvotis samas procentze, rac Stand-by-is meqanizmis farglebSi ssf-s wevri qveynis finansuri daxmarebis

zRvrul odenobebs warmoadgens. miuxedavad amisa, ssf-s aRmasrule-

belma sabWom, qveynis ekonomikaSi Seqmnili sagangebo viTarebis gaTva-

liswinebiT, arsebuli proceduris dacviT, dauSva e.w. gansakuTrebu-

li midgoma.4 amasTan, saqarTvelos mieca 250 mln aSS dolaris (161.7

mln SDR-i) dauyovnebliv miRebis SesaZlebloba.

darCenili Tanxa ki 6 tranSad ganawilda, romelTaganac oris, TiToeu-

li 63.1 mln SDR-is ekvivalentis odenobiT, miReba 2008 wlis noembersa

da 2009 wlis TebervalSi daigegma, xolo oTxis, TiToeuli 47.3. mln

SDR-is ekvivalentis odenobis – 2009 wlis darCenil sam da 2010 wlis

pirvel kvartalSi.

saqarTvelos xelisuflebam gadawyvita mxolod pirveli tranSiT (161.7

mln SDR) esargebla, danarCeni tranSebis miRebis Sesaxeb gadawyvetile-

ba ki Sesabamis periodSi Seqmnili makroekonomikuri fonis gaTvaliswi-

nebiT mieRo. amasTan, ZalaSi darCa qveynis mier 18-Tviani ekonomikuri

programis ganxorcielebisa da am periodSi programis sakontrolo ma-

Cveneblebis Sesrulebis valdebuleba.

2 memorandumi winaswar iqna SeTanxmebuli ssf-s misiasTan, romelic 2008 wlis agvistos bolos

da seqtembris dasawyisSi imyofeboda saqarTveloSi.

3 IMF. Press Release N08/208. September 15, 2008.

4 Georgia - Assessment of the Risks to the Fund and the Fund’s Liquidity Position. IMF. (2008). Georgia: Request for Stand-by Arrangement - Staff Report; staff Supplement; Press Release on the Executive Board Discussion; and Statement by the Executive Director for Georgia. IMF Country Report N08/328. October.

4

winamdebare angariSis mizania saerTaSoriso savaluto fondis Stand-by-is meqanizmis farglebSi damtkicebuli 18-Tviani programis prio-

ritetebis ganxilva, misi monitoringis struqturuli kriteriumebis,

agreTve struqturuli orientirebis marTlzomierebis garkveva da

Sesrulebis analizi 2008 wlis bolomde.

angariSSi garkveuli yuradReba eTmoba programis farglebSi ukve ga-

moyofili saxsrebis gamoyenebis sakiTxs, Tumca amaze msjeloba piro-

biTia, radganac ssf-s tranSebi uSualod qveynis saerTaSoriso rezer-

vebSi iricxeba da maTi gamoyenebis efeqtianobis Sefaseba savaluto

intervenciebis saxiT saerTaSoriso rezervebis xarjvis Sedegianobas-

Tanaa dakavSirebuli.

angariSze muSaobis dros gamoyenebul iqna ssf-s programis sayrdeni

dokumenti (2008 wlis seqtemberi)5, ssf-s misiis mier ganxorciele-

buli programis pirveli (2009 wlis dekemberi)6 da meore (2009 wlis

marti)7 mimoxilvis masalebi, agreTve saqarTvelos erovnuli bankis

(seb-i), finansTa saministros, ekonomikuri ganviTarebis saministros

statistikis departamentis monacemebi, calkeuli eqspertuli Sefa-

sebebi.

5 IMF. (2008). Georgia: Request for Stand-by Arrangement - Staff Report; Staff Supplement; Press Release on the Executive Board Discussion; and Statement by the Executive Director for Georgia. IMF Country Report N08/328. October.

6 IMF. (2009). Georgia: First Review Under the Stand-by Arrangement - Staff Report; Press Release on the Executi-ve Board Discussion; and Statement by the Executive Director for Georgia. IMF Country Report N 09/1. January.

7 IMF. (2009). Georgia: Staff Report for the 2009 Article IV Consultation and Second Review Under the Stand-by Arrangement. EBS/09/30. March.

5

1.1. programis ZiriTadi mizani

agvistos omis uSualo ekonomikuri Sedegebidan ssf-m gansakuTrebuli mniSv-

neloba mianiWa ndobis deficitis warmoqmnas, rac Semdeg movlenebSi aisaxa:

erTbaSad damuxruWda kerZo seqtorSi ucxoeTidan kapitalis

nakadebis Semodineba (pirdapiri da portfelis investiciebi +

sabanko kreditebi), ris gamoc Sida savaluto bazarze mkveTrad

iklo ucxouri valutis miwodebam da gaizarda zewola gacvliT

kursze. mxolod agvistoSi qveynis saerTaSoriso rezervebi 330

mln aSS dolariT anu 23 procentiT Semcirda;

daiwyo bankebidan depozitebis ganzidva. maTi moculoba agvis-

toSi, ssf-s SefasebiT, 400 mln lariT anu 14 procentiT Sem-

cirda;

likvidobis problemis gamwvavebas bankebma dakreditebis mkve-

Tri SezRudviT upasuxes, rac mniSvnelovanwilad sakredito

riskebis matebiT (gansakuTrebiT mSeneblobisa da uZravi qonebis

seqtorSi), iyo gamowveuli;

piks miaRwia qveynis riskis maCveneblebma, kerZod, saqarTvelos

evroobligaciebis spredma aSS-s Sesadarisi saxazino valdebu-

lebebis mimarT 775 sabaziso punqti Seadgina, rac 240 sabaziso

punqtiT meti iyo omamdel donesTan SedarebiT.

imis gaTvaliswinebiT, rom saqarTvelos mimdinare angariSis didi ua-

ryofiTi balansi aqvs (2007 wels, ssf-s SefasebiT, man mSp-s 20, xolo

2008 wlis pirvel naxevarSi _ 26 procents miaRwia), romelic ucxoe-

Tidan kerZo kapitalis nakadebiT ifareboda, ndobis deficitiT ga-

mowveuli Soki sagadamxdelo balansSi did garRvevas da ekonomikuri

zrdis tempebis mkveTr dacemas moaswavebda. aqedan gamomdinare, ssf-s,

ise rogorc saqarTvelos xelisuflebis, azriT kritikulad mniSvne-

lovania investorTa ndobis aRdgena. Stand-by-is meqanizmis gamoyenebam

xeli unda Seuwyos saqarTvelos saerTaSoriso rezervebis Sevsebas da

sagadamxdelo balansis garRvevis Tavidan acilebas, ramac saboloo

jamSi qveynis ekonomikaSi Seqmnili mdgomareobis gauaresebis riskis

Semsubuqeba unda gamoiwvios.

1. ssf-s programis formati

6

1.2. Tavdapirveli makroekonomikuri CarCo

programis makroekonomikuri CarCo arsebuli viTarebis analizis safuZvel-

ze ssf-s mier gakeTebul ramdenime mniSvnelovan prognozs eyrdnoboda.

ssf moeloda, rom kerZo kapitalis Semodineba saqarTveloSi 2008 wlis

pirveli naxevris 1.5 mlrd aSS dolaridan meore naxevarSi 313 mln-mde

daecemoda, Tumca 2009 wels daiwyeboda misi aRdgena, rac momdevno wleb-

Sic gagrZeldeboda. kerZo seqtorSi kapitalis Semodinebis kleba, masTan

dakavSirebuli importis Semcirebis gaTvaliswinebiT, programis Tanax-

mad, 2008-2009 wlebSi sagadamxdelo balansSi 1.2 mlrd dolaris moculo-

bis finansur garRvevas warmoqmnida.

programis mixedviT realuri mSp-s zrdis tempi omamdeli prognozis

_ 9 procentis nacvlad, 2008 wels 3.5 procentamde unda dacemuliyo,

magram 2009 da 2010 wlebSi, pirdapiri ucxouri investiciebis zrdis

kvalobaze mis Sesabamisad 4 da 6 procentian matebas moelodnen.

2009-2010 wlebSi mimdinare angariSis balansis gaumjobesebis prognozi

pirdapir ucxour investiciebTan dakavSirebuli importis klebis da

importuli produqciis msoflio fasebis Semcirebis varauds eyrdno-

boda, magram iTvaliswinebda ekonomikis omisSemdgom rekonstruqcias-

Tan dakavSirebul imports da eqsportis klebas globaluri recesiis

gamo.

cxrili N1: saqarTvelos makroekonomikuri CarCo

2007 2008 2009 2010

realuri mSp-s zrdis tempi (%) 12.4 3.5 4.0 6.0

inflacia (%, periodis bolo) 11.0 8.0 8.0 6.0

mTliani saerTaSoriso rezervebi* (mln aSS $) 1361 1270 1755 1951

mimdinare angariSis deficiti (mln aSS $) -2047 -2757 -2618 -2513

kapitalis wminda Semodineba kerZo seqtorSi (mln aSS $) 2245 1844 1825 2218

fiskaluri deficiti (mSp-s %) -4.7 -6.3 -3.8 -1.6

farTo fuli M3 (%, wliuri zrda) 49.6 14.0 18.0 -

ekonomikis dakrediteba (%, wliuri zrda) 68.9 21.2 15.2 -

wyaro: IMF SeniSvna: * Stand-by-is meqanizmis gamoyenebis SemTxvevaSi

7

sagadamxdelo balansis finansuri garRveva qveynis saerTaSoriso re-

zervebidan unda dafaruliyo, romlis moculobac Stand-by-is meqaniz-

mis gamoyenebis SemTxvevaSi 2009-2010 wlebSi 2.6 Tvis importis eqviva-

lentis erTob misaReb doneze SeiZleboda SenarCunebuliyo.

aRsaniSnavia, rom programis makroekonomikuri CarCo, romelic 2008

wlis agvistos bolosa da seqtembris dasawyisSi Camoyalibda, mxolod

nawilobriv iTvaliswinebda saerTaSoriso finansuri daxmarebis masS-

tabs. garda amisa, programaSi ver aisaxa globaluri sakredito kri-

zisis gaRrmavebis (2008 wlis oqtomber-noemberi) Zalze seriozuli

SesaZlo gavlena saqarTvelos ekonomikaze. yovelive amis gamo, mogvia-

nebiT saWiro gaxda mTeli rigi programuli parametrebis arsebiTi

gadasinjva (ixileT cxrili N2).

1.3. koreqtirebuli makroekonomikuri CarCo

makroekonomikuri CarCos parametrebis zemoT da qvemoT motanili

cxrilebidan Cans, rom maTi monacemebi arsebiTad gansxvavdeba, rac

imaze metyvelebs, rom ssf-s Tavdapirveli prognozuli Sefasebebi

kardinalurad Seicvala; kerZod:

realuri mSp-s zrdis tempi 2008 wels prognozulze 1.5 pro-

centiT naklebi aRmoCnda. globaluri recesiis gaRrmavebis da

saqarTvelos ekonomikaze misi gavlenis matebis molodinSi ssf-m

ekonomikuri zrdis 2009 da 2010 wlebis prognozebi Sesabamisad

3-3 procentiT Seamcira. aRsaniSnavia, rom saqarTvelos mTavro-

ba ar iziarebs realuri mSp-s zrdis ssf-s prognozs da Tvlis,

rom 2009 wels es maCvenebeli 2.5 procents mainc miaRwevs;

2008 wels prognozulze 2.5 procentiT naklebi inflacia (pe-

riodis bolos) dafiqsirda, rac Sida moTxovnis daqveiTebasa

da nedleulsa da sxva resursebze msoflio fasebis klebasTanaa

dakavSirebuli. 2009 wlis prognozi ki mxolod 1 procentiT Se-

mcirda, radganac ssf ar gamoricxavs zogierT sasursaTo pro-

duqtze, magaliTad xorbalze, msoflio fasebis awevas da arc

sawvavze msoflio fasebis samomavlo trendia naTeli;

mosalodnelze ramdenadme meti iyo 2008 wels mimdinare anga-

riSis deficiti, rac, ssf-s monacemebiT, importis savaraudoze

meti, xolo eqsportis naklebi zrdiT aixsneba. samagierod, mi-

8

mdinare angariSis deficiti 2009 wels, ssf-s azriT, Tavdapir-

vel prognozze bevrad naklebi iqneba.

ucxouri investiciebisa da Sida moTxovnis klebis kvalobaze importi

cxadia kidev Semcirdeba, Tumca masStaburi saerTaSoriso finansuri

daxmarebis fonze, romelic qveynis ekonomikis rekonstruqcia-reabi-

litaciazea mimarTuli, importis moculoba mainc didi iqneba. amas-

Tan, globaluri recesiis fonze mosalodnelia qarTuli eqsportis da

ucxoeTidan fuladi gzavnilebis mkveTri vardna. aqedan gamomdinare,

prognozi, romlis Tanaxmadac mimdinare angariSis deficiti 2009 wels

2 mlrd aSS dolaris farglebSi iqneba, sarwmunoa.

cxrili N2: saqarTvelos koreqtirebuli* makroekonomikuri CarCo

2007 2008 2009 2010

realuri mSp-is zrdis tempi (%) 12.4 2.0 1.0 3.0

inflacia (%, periodis bolo) 11.0 5.5 7.0 6.0

mTliani saerTaSoriso rezervebi** (mln aSS $) 1361 1480 1470 1545

mimdinare angariSis deficiti (mln aSS $) -2006 -2911 -1879 -2096

kapitalis wminda Semodineba kerZo seqtorSi (mln

aSS $)2292 2163 1336 1534

fiskaluri deficiti (mSp-s %) -4.7 -6.4 -5.6 -5.1

farTo fuli M3 (%, wliuri zrda) 49.6 7.0 9.0 -

ekonomikis dakrediteba (%, wliuri zrda) 71.3 31.0 6.0 -

wyaro: IMF

SeniSvna: * 2009 wlis 10 martis monacemebi;

** saerTaSoriso finansuri daxmarebis gaTvaliswinebiT

kapitalis wminda Semodinebam ekonomikis kerZo seqtorSi,

2008 wels Tavdapirveli prognoziT gaTvaliswinebulze meti

Tanxa Seadgina, rac nawilobriv saerTaSoriso finansuri dax-

marebis farglebSi kerZo seqtoris savaraudoze meti odeno-

biT dakreditebiT SeiZleba aixsnas. miuxedavad amisa, 2009 wlis

prognozi ssf-m TiTqmis 490 mln aSS dolariT daswia, rac glo-

baluri recesiis gaRrmavebis fonze pirdapiri investiciebisa

da ucxoeTidan nasesxobis SesaZlo mkveTri klebis molodins

eyrdnoba.

9

1.4. fiskaluri politika

programis fiskaluri nawili iTvaliswinebs biujetis mimdinare, uwi-

nares yovlisa Tavdacvis, xarjebis Semcirebas imisaTvis, raTa gamo-

Tavisufldes saxsrebi ekonomikis omisSemdgomi reabilitaciisa da

rekonstruqciisaTvis. mimdinare xarjebis klebam sajaro danazoge-

bis mniSvnelovani mateba unda gamoiwvios (mSp-s 2.1 procentidan 2008

wels, 3 procentamde 2009 wels)8, ramac xeli unda Seuwyos ekonomikuri

aqtivobis gamococxlebas.

meore mxriv, programa mxedvelobaSi iRebs mSp-s mimarT sagadasaxado

Semosavlebis klebis perspeqtivas (2007 wels mSp-s 25.8 procentidan

24.9 procentamde 2008 wels da 24.1 procentamde 2009 wels), rac eko-

nomikuri zrdis tempebis vardnasTan, importis klebasa da saSemosa-

vlo da dividendebze gadasaxadis ganakveTebis SemcirebasTanaa dakav-

Sirebuli.

8 aq da qvemoT motanili monacemebi warmoadgens 2009 wlis martSi koreqtirebul progno-

zul Sefasebebs.

nax. 1. fiskaluri deficiti da privatizaciidan Semosavlebi

(mSp-s %)

fiskaluri deficiti privatizaciidan Semosavlebi

wyaro: IMF

- 8

2003 2005 2006 2006 prog.2007 2008 2009

- 4

0

4

8

10

Sedegad, fiskaluri deficiti 2008 wels mSp-s 6.4 procentamde gaizar-

da, 2009 wels ki, ssf-s prognoziT, rasac mTavrobac iziarebs, 5.6 pro-

centamde daiklebs. aRniSnuli deficiti sami wyarodan unda daifaros:

mTavrobis depozitebidan da e.w. suverenuli fondebidan (evroobliga-

ciebis realizaciidan miRebuli saxsrebi), privatizaciidan miRebuli

SemosavlebiT da saerTaSoriso finansuri daxmarebiT.

ramdenadac programis SemuSavebis stadiaze ar iyo cnobili saerTaSori-

so finansuri daxmarebis sagranto komponentis masStabi, programaSi Cai-

do e.w. Semasworebeli (Adjustor), rac gulisxmobs fiskaluri deficitis

avtomaturi zrdis SesaZleblobas, im SemTxvevaSi Tu koncesiuri dono-

ruli dafinanseba gadaaWarbebs ukve gancxadebuli daxmarebis masStabs.

1.5. monetaruli politika

saqarTvelos xelisuflebis memorandumis mixedviT monetaruli po-

litikis ZiriTad amocanad programis moqmedebis periodSi kvlav rCe-

ba erTniSna inflaciis miRweva da saSualovadian perspeqtivaSi misi

mniSvnelovani Semcireba, risTvisac erovnuli banki apirebs inflaciis

TargeTirebis (Infl ation targeting) reJimze gadasvlas9.

mxars uWers ra am miswrafebas, sawvavsa da sursaTze msoflio fasebis

klebisa (aRniSnuli saqoneli samomxmareblo fasebis indeqsis kalaTis

naxevarze mets Seadgens) da Sida moxmarebis mosalodneli Semcirebis

fonze, ssf inflaciis kontrols axlo momavalSi naklebad proble-

maturad miiCnevs. miuxedavad amisa, igi mouwodebs seb-s SeinarCunos

sifxizle da sifrTxiliT moekidos sabazo saprocento ganakveTis Se-

mdgom dawevas.

qvemoT motanili grafikidan Cans, rom agvistos omis Semdgom periodSi

rogorc sabazo, ise samomxmareblo fasebis inflacia (sfi) sakmaod ko-

relirebul daRmaval tendencias avlenen, rac imaze metyvelebs, rom

9 inflaciis TargeTirebis reJimi gulisxmobs saSualo wliuri inflaciis miznobrivi maCve-

neblis gamocxadebas da centraluri bankis xelT arsebuli instrumentebiT misi miRwevis

valdebulebas. aRniSnuli reJimis ganxorcielebis aucilebel pirobebs warmoadgens: cen-

traluri bankis realuri instituciuri damoukidebloba, fasebis stabilurobis aRiareba

misi saqmianobis umaRles miznad, inflaciis prognozirebis unari da angariSvaldebuleba

sazogadoebis winaSe.

11

am etapze monetaruli politikis gamkacreba, maT Soris saprocento

ganakveTebis awevis mimarTulebiT, ar aris aucilebeli10.

10 sabazo inflaciis maCvenebeli asaxavs im kategoriis saqonelTa fasebis dinamikas romlebic

naklebad eqvemdebarebian moklevadiani Sokebis zemoqmedebas (magaliTad, sawvavze an marcv-

leulze msoflio fasis cvlilebas) da ufro grZelvadian faqtorebze reagireben, rogoricaa

monetaruli politika.

sfi

ian-05 ian-06 ian-07 ian-08 ian-09mai-05 mai-06 mai-07 mai-08seq-05 seq-06 seq-07 seq-08

sabazo inflacia

wyaro: saqarTvelos erovnuli banki

nax. 2. samomxmareblo fasebis wliuri indeqsi (sfi)

da sabazo inflacia

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

%

am fonze ssf gansakuTrebul yuradRebas iCens finansuri seqtoris

stabilurobis, kerZod komerciuli bankebis likvidobiT uzrunvelyo-

fis sakiTxis mimarT. programis ganmartebiT baraTSi (2008 wlis seqtem-

beri) xazgasmulia, rom omisSemdgom periodSi likvidobis steriliza-

ciis saWiroeba misi miwodebis saWiroebiT Seicvala, rac likvidobis

sistemuri marTvis mkafiod Camoyalibebuli meqanizmis aucileblobaze

miuTiTebs. amitom, programis Sefasebis erT-erT struqturul orien-

tirad erovnuli bankis mier likvidobis marTvis CarCos SemuSaveba da

amoqmedeba ganisazRvra, rac Tavis mxriv xels Seuwyobs saSualovadian

perspeqtivaSi inflaciis TargeTirebis reJimze gadasvlas.

aRniSnuli CarCos farglebSi ssf mniSvnelovan rols aniWebs saprocento

ganakveTis, rogorc instrumentis gamoyenebas. kerZod, igi miiCnevs, rom ga-

12

nakveTebis zrdam SesaZloa xeli Seuwyos moTxovnis matebas larSi denomini-

rebul finansur instrumentebze da Seamsubuqos zewola gacvliT kursze.

seb-i ar eTanxmeba amgvar midgomas da sruliad samarTlianad Tvlis, rom

ucxour valutaze moTxovna saqarTveloSi naklebad elastiuria saprocen-

to ganakveTebis cvlilebis mimarT. amasTan, aRniSnuli ganakveTebis aweva

kidev ufro SeboWavs dakreditebas erovnul valutaSi. zemoT moyvanili

cxrilidan kargad Cans, rom mkveTrad daeca rogorc fuladi agregatebis,

ise ekonomikis dakreditebis zrdis faqtobrivi da prognozuli tempebi, rac

sakredito depresias moaswavebs. inflaciuri zewola ki ekonomikaze sakmaod

sustia da am etapze saprocento ganakveTis matebas ar moiTxovs.

1.6. gacvliTi kursis politika

ssf-s programis erT-erT mniSvnelovan prioritets warmoadgens la-

ris gacvliTi kursis meti moqnilobis uzrunvelyofa, rac arsebiTad

gulisxmobs erovnuli bankis intervenciebis SezRudvas da kurswarmo-

qmnis procesis ufro met orientacias savaluto bazris koniunqtura-

ze. marTalia, programis ganmartebiT baraTSi (2008 wlis seqtemberi)

aRniSnulia, rom gacvliTi kursis mkveTri daRmasvla kidev ufro Sea-

sustebs meanabreTa (depozitarTa) bankebisadmi ndobas da gaauaresebs

am ukanasknelTa sakredito portfels, magram depozitebis ganzidvis

SeCerebisTanave saWirod miiCneva gacvliTi kursis cvlilebis ucxou-

ri valutis miwodebis klebaze mzardi korelacia.

nominaluri efeqturi gacvliTi

kursis indeqsi

realuri efeqturi gacvliTi

kursis indeqsi

nax. 3. laris realuri da nominaluri efeqturi gacvliTi kursebis indeqsebi

(dekemberi 2007=100)

94

99

104

109

114

119

124

129

dek-07 ian-08 Teb-08 mar-08 apr-08 mai-08 ivn-08 ivl-08 agv-08 seq-08 oqt-08 noe-08 dek-08 ian-09

wyaro: saqarTvelos erovnuli banki

13

amgvari midgoma ZiriTadad qveynis savaluto rezervebis SenarCunebis

amocaniT da ekonomikis konkurentunarianobis savaluto komponen-

tis SesustebiT SeiZleba aixsnas, rac gamovlinda kidec agvistodan

realuri efeqturi gacvliTi kursis indeqsis matebaSi (ixileT ze-

moT motanili grafiki). miuxedavad amisa, gacvliTi kursis daRma-

vali koreqtireba ndobis krizisis dros did sifrTxiles moiTxovs.

myisieri mkveTri Zvrebi, rogorc wesi, kidev ufro amZimebs viTare-

bas, gansakuTrebiT safinanso seqtorSi. aseTi Zvrebis saWiroeba ki

masStaburi saerTaSoriso finansuri daxmarebis pirobebSi naklebad

dasabuTebulia.

da mainc, ar SeiZleba ar daeTanxmo ssf-is daskvnas imis Sesaxeb, rom

noembris naxtomisebrma devalvaciam bolomde ver gaaneitrala realur

gamosaxulebaSi laris siZvire savaWro partniori qveynebis erovnuli

valutebis mimarT, miT umetes, rom aRniSnuli valutebi mas Semdeg

kidev gaufasurda, xolo savaWro partniorebis umetesobaSi Tviuri

inflacia saqarTveloze naklebi aRmoCnda.

aqedan gamomdinare, laris gacvliTi kursis moqniloba ueWvelad unda

gaizardos, rac asaxvas hpovebs mis zomier daRmaval koreqtirebaSi.

am TvalsazrisiT savsebiT gamarTlebulia bankTaSorisi savaluto au-

qcionis meqanizmis amoqmedeba, Tumca misi gamWirvaloba jer kidev ar

aris uzrunvelyofili.

1.7. sagareo vali

ssf Tvlis, rom saqarTvelos sagareo vali 2008-2009 wlebSi marTalia

mkveTr zrdas gamoavlens (mSp-s 17.5 procentidan 2007 wels, 26 pro-

centamde 2009 wels), magram Semdeg, saSualo da grZelvadian perspe-

qtivaSi TandaTanobiT Semcirdeba11. amgvari Sefaseba, miuxedavad imisa,

rom nasesxoba saerTaSoriso finansuri daxmarebis farglebSi mniSv-

nelovanwilad maRali grant-elementiT xasiaTdeba anu koncesiuria,

naklebad sanugeSoa.

jer erTi, saerTaSoriso finansuri daxmarebis arxebiT sajaro seqto-

ris mier misaRebi sesxebis arc Tu mcire nawili (msoflio bankidan,

11 Georgia: External and Public Sector Debt Sustainability Analysis, IMF Country Report N08/328, October 2008, Attachment IV.

14

evropis rekonstruqciis da ganviTarebis bankidan da sxva wyaroebidan)

SeiZleba ar iyos koncesiuri, ris gamoc ssf-m gazarda saqarTvelosa-

Tvis axali arakoncesiuri nasesxobis limiti.

meore, programis ganmartebiT baraTSi TviT ssf aRniSnavs, rom mxo-

lod 2008 wels gamoSvebuli evroobligaciebis (500 mln aSS dolari)

davalianebis dafarva 2013 wels, Tu igi axal valdebulebaSi ar gada-

formda, mZime tvirTad daawveba saqarTvelos biujets.

aRniSnulidan gamomdinare, Cveni azriT, mizanSewonili iqneboda saqar-

Tvelos xelisuflebas 2010 wlidan mainc moratoriumi gamoecxadebina

komerciul (arakoncesiur) sawyisebze axali sagareo valis aRebaze.

15

Stand-by-is sakredito meqanizmiT sargeblobis 18 Tvis manZilze, miu-

xedavad imisa, saqarTvelo aiRebs yovel momdevno tranSs Tu daito-

vebs saWiroebis SemTxvevaSi misi dauyovneblivi miRebis uflebas, man

unda Seasrulos ssf-s winaSe aRebuli konkretuli valdebulebebi,

romlebic specialurad aris gawerili efeqtianobis kriteriumebisa

(Performance Critería) da struqturuli orientirebis (Structural Benchmark) saxiT. programis efeqtianobis kriteriumebi warmodgenilia raodeno-

brivi maCveneblebisa da struqturuli amocanebis formiT, romelTa

Seusruleblobas SesaZloa programis SeCereba mohyves. struqturu-

li orientirebi ki struqturuli reformebis mimdinareobis Sesafase-

blad gamoiyeneba da maTi Seusrulebloba TavisTavad ar aris progra-

mis Sewyvetis safuZveli.

2.1. raodenobrivi kriteriumebi

programis Sesruleba xuTi raodenobrivi kriteriumiT fasdeba, rom-

lebic SeiZleba ganxilul iqnas, rogorc fiskalur da monetarul sfe-

roSi, agreTve ekonomikis sagareo seqtorSi ganxorcielebuli politi-

kis orientirebi:

wminda saerTaSoriso rezervebis moculoba, romelic warmo-

adgens sxvaobas seb-is ucxour aqtivebsa (saerTaSoriso rezer-

vebsa) da ucxour valdebulebebs Soris;

seb-is wminda saSinao aqtivebis limiti, romelic ganisazRvreba

rogorc sxvaoba seb-is ucxour aqtivebsa da sarezervo fulis

(M1) moculobas Soris;

konsolidirebuli mTavrobis sakaso deficitis zRvruli mo-

culoba, romelic Sedgeba konsolidirebuli biujetis wminda

Sida da sagareo dafinansebisa da privatizebidan miRebuli Se-

mosavlisagan;

sajaro seqtoris mier aRebuli an garantirebuli axali arakon-

cesiuri sagareo valis zRvruli moculoba, romelic warmoad-

gens uSeRavaTo (35 procentze naklebi grant-elementis mqone)

ucxouri nasesxobis limits;

dagrovil sagareo davalianebaTa zRvruli moculoba, rome-

2. programis monitoringis meqanizmi

16

lic ganisazRvreba rogorc oficialuri ucxoeli kreditore-

bis mimarT ganuxorcielebeli mimdinare gadaxdebis moculoba.

aRniSnuli raodenobrivi kriteriumebis dacva sakmaod mkacr CarCoSi

aqcevs ekonomikuri politikis iseTi istrumentebis gamoyenebas, rogori-

caa biujetis deficiti, sagareo vali, savaluto intervenciebi, erovnu-

li bankis mier mTavrobisa da komerciuli bankebis dakrediteba da sxva.

2.2. struqturuli kriteriumebi

Tu programis raodenobrivi kriteriumebi makroekonomikuri politi-

kis ZiriTadi mimarTulebebis kontrolisTvis gamoiyeneba, struqtu-

ruli kriteriumebi ssf-s azriT yvelaze mniSvnelovani struqturuli

Zvrebis monitorings isaxavs miznad. mimdinare programaSi ori aseTi

kriteriumia da orive finanasuri, kerZod ki sabanko, sistemis stabi-

lurobasTan aris dakavSirebuli.

pirveli warmoadgens erovnuli bankis mier bolo instanciis kredito-

ris funqciis12 meqanizmis daxvewas (Sesrulebis vada 2008 wlis dekem-

beri), rac miznad isaxavs am tipis sesxebis uzrunvelyofis gaumjobe-

sebas, limitebisa da vadianobis mkafiod gansazRvras da maT mxolod

sicocxlisunarian bankebze gacemas.

bolo instanciis kreditoris funqciaze yuradRebis gamaxvileba imaze

miuTiTebs, rom ssf-s azriT sabanko sistema kvlav SeiZleba aRmoCn-

des likvidobis problemas winaSe, romlis pirvel Semotevas agvistoSi

qarTulma bankebma ase Tu ise gauZles. Tu depozitebis formirebisa da

ekonomikis dakreditebis mkveTrad daRmaval dinamikas gaviTvaliswine-

bT (ixileT qvemoT motanili grafiki), movlenaTa amgvari ganviTareba

gamoricxuli ar aris. likvidobis deficitis gameorebis SemTxvevaSi,

ssf, rogorc Cans, komerciuli bankebis mxridan bolo instanciis kre-

ditze moTxovnis zrdas moelis da Tvlis, rom am tipis dakreditebis

wesebis srulyofa xels Seuwyobs sicocxlisunariani bankebis reabili-

tacias da Seasustebs erovnuli bankis sakredito risks.

12 im SemTxvevaSi, rodesac komerciul banks likvidobis mwvave problema eqmneba, romelmac

SeiZleba misi gakotreba gamoiwvios da safrTxe Seuqmnas mTlianad sabanko sistemas, seb-s

ufleba aqvs banks gamouyos bolo instancias sesxi. rogorc wesi, igi moklevadiania, uzrunve-

lyofili da sabazrosTan SedarebiT ufro maRali saprocento ganakveTiT gaicema.

17

meore struqturuli kriteriumi gulisxmobs seb-is, safinanso ze-

damxedvelobis saagentosa da mTavrobis mier finansuri stabilu-

robis gegmis SemuSavebas (Sesrulebis vada 2009 wlis ivnisis bolo).

masSi Camoyalibebuli unda iyos politikis RonisZiebebi safinanso

seqtorSi yovelgvar SesaZlo garTulebaze operatiuli reagirebis

mizniT da unda gaiweros TiToeul SemTxvevaSi sxvadasxva moTamaSis

(seb-i, saagento da mTavroba) roli da valdebulebebi (maT Soris

finansuri).

aRniSnuli struqturuli kriteriumi programis Tavdapirvel variant-

Si ar figurirebda: rogorc Cans ssf-s misiam am sferoSi adre dasaxu-

li RonisZiebebi arasakmrisad CaTvala da maTi gaZliereba gadawyvita.

Tu gaviTvaliswinebT, rom araxelsayrel globalur da Sida politi-

kur fonze uaryofiTi movlenebi saqarTvelos ekonomikaSi, gansaku-

TrebiT mis sabanko seqtorSi, Zalze swrafad SeiZleba ganviTardes,

finansuri stabilurobis gegmis SemuSavebis ivnisis bolomde gadadeba

ar migvaCnia mizanSewonilad.

sabanko depozitebi

wl

iuri z

rda %

kerZo seqtoris dakrediteba

nax. 4. finansuri Suamavlobis dinamika

0

-20

20

40

60

80

100

dek-03 ivn-04 ivn-05 ivn-06 ivn-07 ivn-08dek-04 dek-05 dek-06 dek-07 dek-08

wyaro: IMF

18

2.3. struqturuli orientirebi

mimdinare programa xuT struqturul orientirs moicavs, romelTaga-

nac sami pirdapir ukavSirdeba sabanko sistemis stabilurobis Senar-

Cunebis amocanas:

1. urTierTgagebis memorandumis xelmowera safinanso zedamxed-

velobis saagentosa da erovnul banks Soris (Sesrulebis vada

2008 wlis oqtombris bolo), romliTac ganisazRvreba am ori

institutis TanamSromlobis sferoebi da pasuxismgebloba; maT

Soris: informaciis gacvlis praqtikuli da iuridiuli aspeqte-

bi, sabanko sistemaSi warmoqmnili problemebis mogvarebaSi mo-

nawileobis miRebis specifikuri moTxovnebi da maregulirebeli

dokumentebis proeqtebis ZalaSi Sesvlamde, winaswar ganxilvis

SesaZlebloba.

mocemuli struqturuli orientiris gamoyofa imis maCvenebelia, rom

sabanko sistemis stabilurobis SenarCuneba SeuZlebelia am sferoSi

erovnuli bankis gansakuTrebuli instituciuri rolis gaTvaliswine-

bis gareSe, Tumca Zneli saTqmelia ramdenad sakmarisi iqneba amisTvis

or uwyebas Soris formaluri memorandumis gaformeba. ufro efeqtia-

ni iqneboda, rom ssf-s erovnuli bankis Sesaxeb organul kanonSi cvli-

lebebis Setana moeTxova, romliTac moxdeboda safinanso zedamxed-

velobis sagentos sruli instituciuri integracia erovnuli bankis

sistemaSi.13

2. erovnuli bankis mier likvidobis marTvis CarCos SemuSave-

ba da gamoqveyneba (Sesrulebis vada 2009 wlis martis bolo),

riTac mkafiod ganisazRvreba likvidobis sistemuri marTvis

miznebi da instrumentebi. aRniSnuli CarCo unda warmoadgen-

des refinansirebis meqanizms komerciuli bankebis likvidobiT

operatiuli uzrunvelyofisaTvis, rac Zalze mniSvnelovania sa-

banko sistemis stabilurobisaTvis.

13 aRsaniSnavia, rom erovnuli bankis Sesaxeb organuli kanonis me-6-e muxlSi miTiTebulia,

rom erovnuli banki Sedgeba sakuTriv erovnuli bankisa da masTan arsebuli sajaro samarTlis

iuridiuli pirebis _ safinanso zedamxedvelobis sagentosa da finansuri monitoringis sam-

saxurisgan. amasTan, orive es dawesebuleba erovnuli bankis biujetidan finansirdeba.

19

es struqturuli orientiri aqtualuria imdenad, ramdenadac saWiroebis

SemTxvevaSi erovnuli bankis mier likvidobis masStaburi deficitis da-

farva SesaZloa winaaRmdegobaSi movides fasebis stabilurobis, gacvliTi

kursis mkveTri meryeobis Tavidan acilebisa da saerTaSoriso rezerve-

bis daTqmuli limitebis farglebSi SenarCunebis amocanebTan. aqedan ga-

momdinare, principulad mniSvnelovania, rom likvidobis marTvis CarCoSi

saxsrebis miRebis meqanizmi zedmiwevniT mkafiod iyos Camoyalibebuli da

sabazro saprocento ganakveTebze iyos orientirebuli.

3. safinanso zedamxedvelobis saagentos sabWos 2 darCenili we-

vris daniSvna (Sesrulebis vada 2009 wlis ivnisis bolo).

im fonze, rodesac erovnul banks TiTqmis weliwadnaxevari ar hyavda

prezidenti, safinanso zedamxedvelobis saagentos sabWoSi arsebuli

vakansiebis Sevseba, isic programis dawyebidan 8 Tvis Semdeg, erTob

formalur valdebulebas warmoadgens. gacilebiT ufro nayofieri

iqneboda kanonmdeblobaSi cvlilebebis Setanis moTxovna, romlis Za-

liTac mkacrad SeizRudeboda am uwyebis sabWoSi aRmasrulebeli xe-

lisuflebis, kerZod mTavrobis, warmomadgenelTa Seyvana, rac aSkara

winaaRmdegobaSi modis safinanso zedamxedvelobis saagentos damouki-

deblobis sayovelTaod miRebul principTan.

4. 2009 wlis biujetis parlamentSi wardgena ise, rom fiska-

lurma deficitma ar gadaaWarbos mSp-s 3.75 procents, xolo im

SemTxvevaSi Tu donorebis mxridan koncesiuri finansuri da-

xmareba gadaaWarbebda donorTa mier gancxadebuli daxmarebis

moculobas, saqarTvelos xelisuflebas SeeZlo fiskaluri de-

ficitis kidev sami procentiT gazrda (Sesrulebis vada 2008

wlis dekemberi);

5. axali sabiujeto kodeqsis parlamentSi wardgena, (Sesrulebis

vada 2009 wlis ivlisi), ramac fiskaluri politikis ufro md-

gradi CarCoebi unda daamkvidros; kerZod, aamaRlos biujetis

momzadebis procesis efeqtianoba, gaaZlieros misi strategiu-

li dagegmva da aRsrulebis monitoringi.14

14 Tavdapirvelad es valdebuleba programaSi struqturuli kriteriumis saxiT iyo warmod-

genili da sabiujeto mowyobis Sesaxeb kanonis axali variantis SemuSavebas da mis organuli

kanonis rangSi ayvanas gulisxmobda.

20

3.1. saerTaSoriso rezervebis dinamika

Stand-By-is meqanizmis pirveli tranSis (250 mln aSS dolari), miRe-

bam (2008 wlis 30 seqtemberi), erovnuli bankis rezervebis moculo-

bis mkveTri zrda gamoiwvia (ixileT qvemoT motanili grafiki), rasac

evroobligaciebis realizaciidan Semosuli Tanxis nawilis (50 mln aSS

dolari) suverenuli fondebidan mTavrobis angariSze gadatanamac

Seuwyo xeli.

tranSis Caricxvas win uZRoda seqtemberSi Sida savaluto bazris ko-

niunqturis garkveuli stabilizacia, rodesac, agvistoSi erovnuli

bankis mier ganxorcielebuli masStaburi intervenciebis Sedegad, mo-

xda mimoqcevaSi arsebuli fulis masis SekumSva, rasac mogvianebiT

larze moTxovnis mateba mohyva. imavdroulad SeCerda bankebidan de-

pozitebis ganzidvis procesi. seqtemberSi erovnuli bankis wminda in-

tervenciebma sul raRac 43 aTasi aSS dolari Seadgina. am fonze, mas

ar gasWirvebia Tvis bolos wminda saerTaSoriso rezervebis raode-

nobrivi kriteriumis dacva (ixileT cxrili N3). aqve unda aRiniSnos,

rom savaluto fondidan miRebuli tranSi, rogorc wesi, gavlenas ar

axdens dasaxelebuli programuli maCveneblis Sesrulebaze.

samwuxarod, bazris droebiTi stabilizacia xelisuflebis mxridan

zedmetad optimisturad iqna aRqmuli. marTalia, panikuri moTxovna

ucxour valutaze erTgvarad Cacxra, magram seqtembris bolosken ga-

Zlierda savaluto bazris fundamenturi faqtorebi, kerZod, ucxoe-

Tidan sainvesticio da kapitalis sxva nakadebis daSretam didi garR-

veva warmoSva sagadamxdelo balansSi, rasac globaluri finansuri

krizisis gamwvavebamac Seuwyo xeli.

29 seqtembridan moTxovna ucxour valutaze kvlav mkveTrad gaizar-

da: momdevno aT dReSi misma saSualodRiurma moculobam Tbilisis

bankTaSoris savaluto birJaze 15 mln aSS dolars miaRwia anu TiTqmis

imdens, ramdenic agvistos omis periodSi iyo. naTeli gaxda, rom agvis-

tos Sokis Semdeg bazris stabilizaciisken mimarTuli faqtobrivad

fiqsirebuli gacvliTi kursis reJimis (e.w. de-faqto pegis) SenaCuneba

3. programul valdebulebaTa Sesruleba

21

kvlav saerTaSoriso rezervebis klebasa da realur gamosaxulebaSi

laris gaumarTlebel gaZvirebas gviqadda, rasac Tavis mxriv qveynis

ekonomikis konkurentunarianobis Semdgomi daqveiTeba mohyveboda.

saerTaSoriso rezervebi saerTaSoriso rezervebis cvlileba

nax. 5. mTliani saerTaSoriso rezervebi (mln aSS dolari)

-150 1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500

1600

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

31-ivl-08 31-agv-08 31-oqt-0830-seq-08

wyaro: IMF

erTaderTi swori gadawyvetileba aseT viTarebaSi erovnuli valu-

tis kursis moqnilobis daSveba iqneboda, rasac iTvaliswinebda kidec

saqarTvelos xelisuflebis ekonomikuri da finansuri politikis me-

morandumis 36-e muxli, Tumca naxtomisebr devalvacias igi ar gu-

lisxmobda. amgvari midgoma erovnuli valutis mcocavi devalvaciis

reJimSi gadayvanas niSnavda, rodesac cocvis diapazoni saerTaSoriso

rezervebis xarjvis masStabze iqneboda damokidebuli. 28 seqtembridan

7 noembramde erovnulma bankma laris kursi mxolod 4 TeTriT daswia,

risTvisac 320 mln aSS dolaris moculobis intervenciebis ganxor-

cieleba dasWirda. amrigad, SeiZleba iTqvas, rom Stand-By-is meqanizmis

pirveli tranSi faqtobrivad laris kursis viwro diapazonSi SenarCu-

nebas moxmarda.

22

15 IMF. (2009). Georgia: First Review Under the Stand-By Arrangement – Staff Report; Press Release on the Executi-ve Board Discussion; and Statement by the Executive Director for Georgia. IMF Country Report N 09/1. January.

saerTaSoriso rezervebis donis mkveTrma vardnam da realur gamosa-

xulebaSi laris mniSvnelovanma gaZvirebam naTeli gaxada, rom sakurso

politika araefeqtiani iyo. amitom, miRebul iqna politikuri gada-

wyvetileba laris naxtomisebri devalvaciis Sesaxeb, rac or etapad

ganxorcielda. pirvel etapze (paraskevi, 2008 wlis 7 noemberi) ero-

vnulma bankma bankTaSoris sabirJo vaWrobaze laris erTbaSad 5 Te-

TriT daRmasvla dauSva, ramac bazarze spekulaciuri aJiotaJi Seqmna;

meore etapze ki, romelic uqme dReebSi, bazris ZiriTadi operatore-

bis _ bankebis monawileobis gareSe ganxorcielda, ukve spekulaciuri

Seteva ganviTarda, rasac erovnuli valutis banknoturi kursis kidev

16 TeTriT dacema mohyva. saboloo jamSi, larma TiTqmis 15 procen-

tiani devalvacia ganicada.

aRsaniSnavia, rom laris naxtomisebri devalvaciis gadawyvetile-

bas uSualod uswrebda win ssf-s misiis morigi viziti saqarTveloSi,

romlis ganmavlobaSic, savaraudod, gadawyda kidec erovnuli bankis

intervenciebis mkveTri Sekvecis mizniT gacvliTi kursis sabazro wo-

nasworobis niSnulis miRweva Tu ara masTan miaxloeba. odnav mogvia-

nebiT ssf-m dadebiTad Seafasa saqarTvelos xelisuflebis es nabiji15.

misi azriT, marTalia laris kursis mkveTri daRmasvla samomxmareblo

fasebis aRmaval koreqtirebas da ekonomikuri agentebis savaluto

riskebis gaRvivebas gamoiwvevda, magram xels Seuwyobda sagadamxdelo

balansze zewolis Semsubuqebas, saerTaSoriso rezervebis dazogvas da

konkurentunarianobis gaumjobesebas.

rogorc movlenebis Semdgomma ganviTarebam aCvena, laris devalvaciam

sakmaod winaaRmdegobrivi Sedegebi moitana:

samomxmareblo fasebis indeqsi navTobproduqtebsa da sxva ne-

dleulze msoflio fasebis vardnis fonze ar gazrdila, Tumca

saqonlis da momsaxurebis mTel rig saxeobebze fasebma mainc

sagrZnoblad moimata;

gaRvivda ekonomikuri agentebis savaluto riskebi, kerZod ki-

dev ufro damZimda komerciuli bankebis sakredito portfeli;

Tu ucxour valutaze moTxovnis dinamikiT vimsjelebT, zewola

23

sagadamxdelo balansze Sesustda, magram SedarebiT umniSvne-

lod;

devalvaciis Semdeg, wlis bolomde erovnulma bankma bazarze

kidev 280 mln aSS dolarze meti daxarja. amdenad, didad arc

saerTaSoriso rezervebi dazogila, rac imaze metyvelebs, rom

devalvaciis Sedegad Camoyalibebuli sakurso Tanafardoba ar

warmoadgenda wonasworul mniSvnelobas;

Tu ekonomikis konkurentunarianobis gaumjobesebis savaluto

determinantis sazomad realuri gacvliTi kursis indeqsis kle-

bas miviCnevT, laris devalvaciis Semdeg igi marTlac mniSvne-

lovnad daeca, magram male isev aRmaval trends daubrunda.

aseT viTarebaSi qveynis savaluto rezervebis dinamikis gadamwyvet fa-

qtorad masStaburi saerTaSoriso finansuri daxmareba iqca, romlis

moculoba da struqtura 2008 wlis 22 oqtombers briuselSi gamar-

Tul donorTa konferenciaze ganisazRvra16. amis gaTvaliswinebiT mo-

xda wminda saerTaSoriso rezervebis dekembris programuli maCvene-

blis matebis mimarTulebiT gadasinjva.

aRniSnuli daxmarebis formatSi mxolod saxelmwifo seqtorSi 2008

wlis bolomde grantis saxiT 517 mln aSS dolari, sesxis saxiT ki 278

mln aSS dolari Semovida17, rac faqtobrivad qveynis saerTaSoriso

rezervebSi Cairicxa. am fonze dekemberSi gaZlierda saerTaSoriso

finansuri daxmarebis monetizacia, rac sabiujeto arxebiT mimoqce-

vaSi mniSvnelovani moculobis laris SemodinebaSi aisaxa. Sedegad, ar

Sedga erovnul valutaze moTxovnis sezonuri winasaaxalwlo mateba,

piriqiT dekembris bolo dekadaSic ki erovnul banks didi moculobis

intervenciebis ganxorcieleba mouxda. kvlav safrTxe daemuqra wminda

saerTaSoriso rezervebis programuli sakontrolo maCveneblis Ses-

rulebas, Tumca wlis bolo dReebSi Caricxulma saerTaSoriso dax-

marebam aRniSnuli safrTxe gaaneitrala. dasaxelebuli raodenobrivi

kriteriumi amjeradac gadaWarbebiT Sesrulda.

programis meore mimoxilva (2009 wlis Tebervlis bolo _ martis da-

sawyisi) gacvliT kursze morigi zewolis fonze mimdinareobda, rac

16 saqarTvelos finansuri daxmarebis paketis saerTo moculobam 4.55 mlrd aSS dolari Seadgina.

17 saqarTvelos finansTa saministros monacemebi.

24

aisaxa kidec ssf-s misiis rekomendaciebSi, romelTa Soris erT-erTi

centraluri adgili laris kursis meti moqnilobis daSvebis moTxov-

nam daikava. miuxedavad amisa, Semcirda wminda saerTaSoriso rezer-

vebis samomavlo programuli maCveneblebi (ixileT cxrili N3), Tumca

amoqmedda Semasworeblis meqanizmi. im SemTxvevaSi, Tu saerTaSoriso

finansuri daxmarebis is nawili, romelic sagadamxdelo balansis mxar-

dasaWerad iqneba gamoyofili, meti/naklebi iqneba winaswar gansazR-

vrul moculobaze, aRniSnuli limiti gaizrdeba/Semcirdeba. am gziT

ssf cdilobs seb-is saintervencio aqtivoba donorTa mier gamoyofili

Tanxebis faqtobriv Semodinebas daukavSiros da am gziT xeli Seuwyos

saerTaSoriso rezervebis aRdgena-SenarCunebas.

3.2. erovnuli bankis wminda saSinao aqtivebi

erovnuli bankis wminda saSinao aqtivebis programul limitSi Cateva

Stand-by-is meqanizmis moqmedebis ganvlil periodSi damokidebuli iyo

iseT faqtorebze, rogoricaa erovnul bankSi mTavrobis depozitebis

moculoba, bankebis davalianeba erovnuli bankis mimarT da maT mier

erovnuli bankis sadepozito serTifikatebis SeZena.

2008 wlis seqtembris bolosTvis mTavrobis depozitebi erovnul bank-

Si mosalodnelze meti odenobiT dafiqsirda, ramac Seamcira progno-

zulTan SedarebiT mTavrobis wminda davalianebis moculoba. garda

amisa, ar gamarTlda likvidobis deficitis pirobebSi erovnuli bankis

mimarT komerciuli bankebis wminda davalianebis mkveTri zrdis molo-

dinic, rac maT portfelSi erovnuli bankis sadepozito serTifikate-

bis mniSvnelovan moculobasTan aris dakavSirebuli. saboloo jamSi,

erovnuli bankis wminda saSinao aqtivebis raodenobrivi kriteriumis

faqtobrivi maCvenebeli dasaxelebul sakontrolo TariRze progra-

mulze bevrad naklebi aRmoCnda.

2008 wlis meoTxe kvartalSi erovnuli bankis wminda Sida aqtivebis

struqturaSi mniSvnelovani Zvrebi gamoikveTa. masStaburi saerTa-

Soriso finansuri daxmarebis kvalobaze mTavrobis depozitebi mkve-

Trad gaizarda, ramac dekembris bolos mTavrobis wminda davalianebis

vardna gamoiwvia. amas daemata komerciuli bankebis xelT arsebuli

erovnuli bankis sadepozito serTifikatebis portfelis Semcireba,

rasac erovnuli bankis mimarT bankebis davalianebis zrda mohyva. mniS-

25

vnelovani sabalanso Sedegi iqonia agreTve noemberSi laris devalva-

ciamac. yovelive amis Sedegad, erovnuli bankis wminda Sida aqtivebis

faqtobrivi maCvenebeli dekemberSic bevrad naklebi iyo Sesworebul

programul maCvenebelze, rac imas niSnavs, rom erovnulma bankma ssf-s

programis raodenobrivi kriteriumi amjeradac daakmakofila.18

3.3. konsolidirebuli mTavrobis sakaso deficiti

konsolidirebuli mTavrobis sakaso deficitis zRvruli moculoba

sami ZiriTadi komponentisgan Sedgeba, esenia: wminda Sida dafinanseba

bankebisa da arasabanko safinanso dawesebulebaTa mxridan, wminda saga-

reo dafinanseba da privatizaciidan miRebuli Semosavlebi.

programis pirvel sakontrolo TariRze _ 2008 wlis seqtembris bo-

los, mosalodnelze bevrad naklebi aRmoCnda wminda Sida dafinanseba,

rac erovnul banksa da komerciul bankebSi konsolidirebuli mTa-

vrobis angariSebze ricxuli naSTebis savaraudoze mcire odenobiT

xarjvam ganapiroba. mosalodnelze meti iyo wminda sagareo dafinan-

sebis faqtobrivi moculoba, rac ZiriTadad suverenul fondebSi aku-

mulirebuli Tanxebis gamoyenebasTan iyo dakavSirebuli. savaraudos

ramdenadme gadaaWarba agreTve privatizaciidan miRebulma Semosav-

lebma. saboloo jamSi konsolidirebuli mTavrobis sakaso deficitis

raodenobrivi kriteriumis faqtobrivi maCvenebeli aRniSnul TariRze

programulze mniSvnelovnad naklebi gamovida.

wlis bolosken Semdegi suraTi gamoikveTa. wminda Sida dafinanseba

amjerad savaraudo moculobas miuaxlovda, rac erovnul banksa da ko-

merciul bankebSi konsolidirebuli mTavrobis angariSebze mosalod-

nelze meti odenobis naSTebis akumulirebam ganapiroba. savaraudoze

ramdenadme naklebi iyo wminda sagareo dafinansebis faqtobrivi maCvene-

beli, rac suverenul fondebSi akumulirebuli Tanxebis mosalodnelze

naklebad xarjvis Sedegi iyo. amasTan, savaraudoze bevrad meti dafiq-

sirda privatizaciidan Semosavlebi. saboloo jamSi, konsolidirebuli

mTavrobis sakaso deficiti 2008 wlis dekembris bolos koreqtirebul

18 programis momdevno sakontrolo TariRebze ssf-m mocemul raodenobriv kriteriums

dauwesa Semasworebeli, romelic avtomaturad amcirebs/zrdis limits sagadamxdelo balansis

mxardaWeris mizniT saerTaSoriso finansuri daxmarebis mosalodnelze meti/naklebi odeno-

bis miRebis SemTxvevaSi.

26

programul maCvenebelze naklebi aRmoCnda anu saqarTvelos mTavrobam

uproblemod daakmayofila aRniSnuli raodenobrivi kriteriumi19.

3.4. sagareo valTan dakavSirebuli raodenobrivi kriteriumebi

programis efeqtianobis Sefasebis raodenobrivi kriteriumebis am

kategorias ganekuTvneba sajaro seqtoris mier aRebuli (an garanti-

rebuli) axali arakoncesiuri sagareo valisa da dagrovil sagareo

davalianebaTa zRvruli moculobebi. ukanaskneli ssf-s mier nulovan

doneze iyo gansazRvruli da saqarTvelos mTavrobam igi 2008 wlis

orive sakontrolo TariRze Seasrula anu sagareo valis momsaxure-

basTan dakavSirebuli mimdinare gadaxdebi droulad iqna ganxor-

cielebuli da raime davalianeba am mxriv ar dagrovila.

rac Seexeba sajaro seqtoris axal arakoncesiur valdebulebebs, misi limiti

2008 wlis bolosTvis 250 mln aSS dolars Seadgenda. ssf-s cnobiT es valde-

bulebac Sesrulda, Tumca, raodenobrivi kriteriumebis amsaxvel cxrilSi

aRniSnuli limitis faqtobrivi Sesrulebis grafa ratomRac carielia.

cxrili N3: ssf-s programis raodenobrivi kriteriumebi

seqtemberi,

2008

dekemberi,

2008

marti,

2009

ivnisi,

2009

prog. faqt. prog. faqt. prog. kor.* prog. kor.*

konsolidirebuli mTavrobis

sakaso deficitis zRvruli

moculoba (mln lari)

537 425 760 619 229 480 517 924

sajaro seqtoris mier aRebuli

an garantirebuli axali

arakoncesiuri sagareo valis

zRvruli moculoba (mln $)

0 0 250 250 850 250 850

wminda saerTaSoriso

rezervebis moculoba

(mln $)602 848 851 909 836 633 861 585

seb-is wminda saSinao

aqtivebis limiti (mln lari)765 452 214 116 295 310 329 446

dagrovil sagareo

davalianebaTa zRvruli

moculoba

0 0 0 0 0 0

wyaro: IMFSeniSvna: * koreqtirebuli programuli maCveneblebi

19 programis or momdevno sakontrolo TariRze ssf-m aRniSnul raodenobriv maCvenebels

Semasworebeli ar dauwesa, Tumca arsebiTad Secvala misi sidide.

27

3.5. safinanso seqtoris stabilurobasTan dakavSirebuli

struqturuli kriteriumebi da orientirebi

2008 wlis bolomde Stand-By-is meqanizmis farglebSi saqarTvelos erTi

struqturuli kriteriumis Sesruleba daekisra, saxeldobr dekembris

bolomde erovnuli bankis, rogorc bolo instanciis kreditoris mier

komerciuli bankebisaTvis sesxis gacemis Sesworebuli wesis Zala-

Si Seyvana. dRemde moqmedi wesi (yovel SemTxvevaSi is, rac erovnuli

bankis veb-gverdzea gamoqveynebuli) 2008 wlis 11 agvistos aris da-

mtkicebuli anu manam, sanam saqarTvelos xelisuflebam oficialuri

weriliT mimarTavda ssf-s finansuri daxmarebis Sesaxeb (2008 wlis 9

seqtemberi). am werilze TandarTuli ekonomikuri da finansuri poli-

tikis memorandumis 35-e muxliT ki qarTuli mxare iRebs valdebulebas

gadaxedos (srulyos) aRniSnuli wesi. gamodis, rom dRes moqmedi wesi

programis damtkicebamde Sevida ZalaSi da mas Semdeg ar Sesworebula.

miuxedavad amisa, ssf dasaxelebuli struqturuli kriteriumi Sesru-

lebulad CaTvala, rac imis dasturad SegviZlia miviCnioT, rom moqme-

di wesi ssf-s moTxovnebs mTlianobaSi akmayofilebs.

niSandoblivia, rom ekonomikuri da finansuri politikis memorandu-

mis aRniSnul muxlSi miTiTebulia, rom wesis cvlileba miznad isaxavs

Seqmnas iseTi meqanizmi, romelic:

ar waaxalisebs komerciuli bankebis mier gaumarTlebeli

riskebis gawevas;

ar Seqmnis moralur safrTxes (Moral Hazard), rac gulisxmobs,

rom bolo instanciis krediti mxolod im bankebs miecemaT, ro-

melic safinanso zedamxedvelobis saagentos mier sicocxlisu-

narianad iqnebian aRiarebuli;

mkafiod gawers am tipis kreditis limitebs da moculobas.

Tu aRweril konteqstSi SevxedavT erovnuli bankis, rogorc bolo

instanciis kreditoris mier komerciuli bankebisaTvis sesxis gacemis

moqmed wess, igi marTlac dasaxvewia, Tumca ara imdenad, rom SeuZle-

beli iyos misi daniSnulebisamebr gamoyeneba.

programis mixedviT 2008 wlis bolomde saqarTvelos gansaxorciele-

bli hqonda ori struqturuli orientiri, romelTagan qronologiu-

28

rad pirveli iyo urTierTgagebis memorandumis xelmowera erovnul

banksa da safinanso zedamxedvelobis saagentos Soris. aRniSnuli me-

morandumi daTqmul vadebSi gaformda 2008 wlis oqtomberSi.

memorandumSi erTmaneTisaganaa gamijnuli ori institutis kompeten-

cia safinanso seqtorSi, rac isedac sakmaod mkfiodaa mocemuli or-

ganul kanonSi erovnuli bankis Sesaxeb. dokumentis Tanaxmad iqmneba

safinanso seqtoris erToblivi komiteti, romelmac unda uzrunve-

lyos am seqtorSi warmoqmnili problemebis sul cota TveSi erTxel

ganxilva da maTze reagireba. memorandumiT gansazRvrulia agreTve

erovnul banksa da saagentos Soris informaciis gacvlis da komunika-

ciis iuridiuli CarCo.

mTlianobaSi dokumenti mainc deklaraciul xasiaTs atarebs da nakle-

bad uzrunvelyofs finansur seqtorSi warmoqmnili problemebis ope-

ratiuli da srulfasovani regulirebis meqanizms.

3.6. sxva struqturuli orientirebi

2008 wlis bolomde Sesrulebul iqna kidev erTi struqturuli orien-

tiri, kerZod, 2009 wlis biujetis parlamentSi wardgena. amasTan, da-

culi iqna ssf-s ZiriTadi moTxovna imis Sesaxeb, rom mTlian fiskalur

deficits Sepirebulze meti saerTaSoriso finansuri daxmarebis Se-

mTxvevaSi ar unda gadaeWarbebina mSp-s 6.75 procentisaTvis. mTavroba

miiCnevs, rom fiskaluri deficiti 2009 wels mSp-s 6 procentze nak-

lebi iqneba.

29

ssf-s Stand-by-is meqanizmis farglebSi saqarTvelos 18-Tviani eko-

nomikuri programis priotitetebis analizma aCvena, rom aRniSnuli

programa mTlianobaSi sworadaa fokusirebuli agvistos omisa da ga-

Wianurebuli globaluri finansuri krizisis fonze saqarTvelos saga-

damxdelo balansSi didi finansuri garRvevisa da qveyanaSi ekonomiku-

ri aqtivobis Semdgomi daqveiTebis safrTxis ganeitralebaze;

programis Tavdapirveli makroekonomikuri CarCo, romelic 2008 wlis

agvistos bolosa da seqtembris dasawyisSi Camoyalibda, mxolod nawi-

lobriv iTvaliswinebda saerTaSoriso finansuri daxmarebis masStabs.

garda amisa, programaSi adeqvaturad ver aisaxa globaluri finansuri

krizisis mosalodneli gaRrmavebis gavlena saqarTvelos ekonomika-

ze. Sedegad, ekonomikuri zrdis, inflaciis, kerZo seqtorSi kapitalis

Semodinebis, saerTaSoriso rezervebis da sxva makroekonomikuri pa-

rametrebis 2008 wlis faqtobrivi maCveneblebi prognozulisgan mniS-

vnelovnad gadaixara, ris gamoc ssf-m arsebiTad gadasinja 2009 wlis

prognozebi;

ssf-s programis erT-erT mniSvnelovan prioritets warmoadgens laris

gacvliTi kursis meti moqnilobis uzrunvelyofa, rac erovnuli bankis

intervenciebis mniSvnelovan SezRudvas, saerTaSoriso rezervebis da-

zogvas da kurswarmoqmnis procesis savaluto bazris koniunqturaze

ufro met orientacias gulisxmobs. miuxedavad amisa, gacvliTi kursis

daRmavali koreqtireba ndobis krizisis fonze did sifrTxiles moi-

Txovs. myisieri mkveTri Zvrebi, rogorc wesi, kidev ufro amZimebs

viTarebas, gansakuTrebiT sabanko seqtorSi;

marTalia, gacvliTi kursis fiqsireba (e.w. de-faqto pegi) agvistos

Sokis Semdeg bazris stabilizaciisken iyo mimarTuli, magram misma

gaumarTleblad xangrZlivad SenarCunebam saerTaSoriso rezervebis

didi odenobiT xarjva da realur gamosaxulebaSi laris gaZvireba

gamoiwvia, rasac qveynis ekonomikis konkurentunarianobis Semdgomi

daqveiTeba mohyva. Stand-By-is meqanizmis farglebSi saqarTvelos mier

miRebuli pirveli tranSi (250 mln aSS dolari) faqtobrivad laris

fiqsirebuli kursis SenarCunebas moxmarda;

daskvnebi da rekomendaciebi

30

2008 wlis noembris naxtomisebrma devalvaciam bolomde mainc ver ga-

aneitrala realur gamosaxulebaSi laris siZvire. sakurso Tanafar-

doba, droebiTi ukuqcevebis miuxedavad, daRmavali trendisken ixreba.

aqedan gamomdinare, wonasworuli mniSvnelobis misaRwevad laris ga-

cvliTi kursis moqniloba ueWvelad unda gaizardos;

ssf miiCnevs, rom seb-is mier larSi denominirebul aqtivebze sapro-

cento ganakveTebis zrdis xelSewyobam momavalSi SesaZloa Seamsu-

buqos zewola gacvliT kursze. amgvari midgomis gaziareba Znelia,

radganac misi ganxorcieleba, arsebiTad ver Seamcirebs ucxour va-

lutaze moTxovnas da erovnul valutaSi kreditis Semdgom gaZvirebas

gamoiwvevs;

ssf inflaciis kontrols axlo momavalSi naklebad problematurad

miiCnevs da ufro metad finansuri seqtoris stabilurobazea koncen-

trirebuli. imaze, rom sabanko sistema kvlav SeiZleba aRmoCndes li-

kvidobis problemas winaSe programis orive struqturuli kriteriumi

metyvelebs (seb-is mier bolo instanciis kreditis ganaxlebuli meqa-

nizmis amoqmedeba da seb-is, safinanso zedamxedvelobis saagentosa da

mTavrobis mier finansuri stabilurobis gegmis SemuSaveba);

safinanso seqtoris stabilurobis, gansakuTrebul prioritetulobaze

miuTiTebs isic, rom programis xuTi struqturuli orientiridan sami

(seb-sa da safinanso zedamxedvelobis saagentos Soris urTierTgage-

bis memorandumis gaformeba, aRniSnuli saagentos sabWoSi darCenili

ori vakansiis Sevseba da seb-is mier likvidobis sistemuri marTvis

CarCos SemuSaveba) uSualodaa dakavSirebuli finansuri Suamavlobis

ukeT regulirebis amocanasTan, Tumca pirvelis efeqtianoba saeWvoa,

xolo meore formalur xasiaTs atarebs;

Cvens xelT arsebuli monacemebiT programis moqmedebis ganvlil or

sakontrolo TariRze (2008 wlis seqtembris bolo da dekembris bolo)

saqarTvelos xelisuflebam programis yvela (xuTive) raodenobrivi

kriteriumi daakmayofila;

ssf-s monacemebiT dakmayofilda agreTve 2008 wlis bolomde da-

gegmili struqturuli kriteriumic _ seb-is mier bolo instanciis

kreditis gacemis ganaxlebuli meqanizmis amoqmedeba, Tumca am tipis

31

kreditis gacemis dRes moqmedi wesi (yovel SemTxvevaSi is, rac seb-

is oficialur veb-gverdze devs) programis damtkicebamde (2008 wlis

agvistoSi) Sevida ZalaSi da mas Semdeg ar Sesworebula.

ssf miRweulad Tvlis 2008 wlis bolomde gansaxorcielebel orive

struqturul orientirs, romelTaganac erTi _ seb-sa da safinanso

zedamxedvelobis sagentos Soris urTierTgagebis memorandumis xel-

mowera deklaraciul xasiaTs atarebs da ver uzrunvelyofs finansur

seqtorSi warmoqmnil problemebze operatiuli da srulfasovani re-

agirebis meqanizms. amdenad, saWirod migvaCnia ganxilul iqnas sakiTxi

safinanso zedamxedvelobis saagentos erovnuli bankis realur daqve-

mdebarebaSi dabrunebis Sesaxeb.

Tbilisi, aprili 2009

fondi Ria sazogadoeba saqarTvelos seria: angariSebi, analizi, rekomendaciebi

fondi `Ria sazogadoeba saqarTvelo~

WoveliZis # 10

0108 Tbilisi, saqarTvelo

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