polish approach to nuclear project climate-energy...

Polish approach to nuclear project – climate-energy considerations

Mirosław Lewiński Department of Nuclear Energy

Ministry of Energy, Poland

NERS 2016 Conference November 9, 2016 – Prague

Poland is surrounded by NPPs up to 300 km from state borders

Polish approach to nuclear project – climate-energy considerations 2

• 23 reactors operating • 6 reactors under construction • 9 reactors planned up to 2025

In 2020 Poland will be entirely surrounded by NPPs. From 2024 the only neighbour country with no NPP will be Germany. However, Germany will be importing significant amount of nuclear electricity from France, Sweden, Czech Republic, Switzerland and Poland.

Poland Germany

Russia Sweden

Ukraine

Italy

Romania

Bulgaria

Norway

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Sorted by boiler`s age

Data: Polish Energy

Market Agency 2015

Age Structure of the Existing Power Plants in Poland


EU ambitions regarding climate change – a challenge for Poland

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dit

: Pla

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rma

Ob

ywat

elsk

a R

P (

CC

) C

red

it: G

rzeg

orz

Ro

giń

ski/

KP

RM

(C

C)

Bełchatów Lignite Power Plant – cooling tower of unit 14


5 so

urce: P

olish

Energy M

arket Agen

cy

CO2 emissions in Polish power sector and emission level of new coal units


Unit [HC – Hard Coal; L – Lignite] Commission year CO2 reduction rate in relation to 2005 average*

Opole TPP units 5&6 (2x900 MWe) [HC] 2018/19 -5,2%

Kozienice unit 11 (1075 MWe) [HC] 2017 -8,8%

Jaworzno unit III (910 MWe) [HC] 2019 -14,3%

Łagisza CFB unit 10 (460 MWe) [HC] 2009 -6,3%

Pątnów unit II (474 MWe) [L] 2008 -5,5%

Bełchatów unit 14 (858 MWe) [L] 2011 -13,1%

source: Ministry of Energy’s own analysis

*2005 is a base year for ETS, as agreed by EU Council in November 2014

Emissions of main air pollutants by the electricity

generation sector in Poland (2012)

Pollutant PM SO2 NOX CO Cd Pb Hg CH4 CO2

Amount

(tons) 17 454 366 634 216 960 39 911 84 1 694 2 512 4 255 147 338 000

Trend 2008-2012

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source: Emitor 2012, Energy Market Agency (ARE S.A.)

cre

dit: Leszek K

ozło

wski, C

C B

Y-N

C-S

A 2

.0


External costs of electricity production in EU (low estimate)


source: European Environment Agency, 2010

External costs of electricity production by power plant type


source:

European

Environment

Agency, 2010

McKinsey`s curve of GHG reduction costs for Poland up to 2030

9

nuclear power

wind on-shore

coal with CCS

Em

issio

n r

ed

uctio

n c

osts

EU

R/t

CO

2e

Assumed price CO2: EUR 10 per tonne


McKinsey`s curve of GHG reduction costs for Czechia

10 Polish approach to nuclear project – climate-energy considerations

Source: McKinsey & Company

11

Power demand is growing systematically

source: PSE Average yearly power demand Peak yearly power demand years

Start of economy transformation


12

Energy consumption in Poland is growing despite a decrease of energy intensity of GDP

0,15

0,2

0,25

0,3

0,35

0,4

0,45

120

125

130

135

140

145

150

155

160

165

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90

19

91

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92

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00

20

01

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06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

Energy consumption Energy intensity of GDP (final)

TWh

kgo

e/EUR

20

00

sources: PSE, GUS

Close to EU average


GHG emissions in Polish power sector in 2004-2013

Data: Emitor 2007/2013, Polish Energy Market Agency


Data: Emitor 2007/2013, Polish Energy Market Agency

Emissions in Polish power sector – reduction potential is diminishing


Data: Polish Energy Market Agency 2011-2013

Emissions in Polish power sector – reduction potential is diminishing

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Hg (mercury)

Pb (lead)

Emis

sio

ns

of

Pb

an

d H

g (t

on

nes

)

Cd (cadmium)

Emissio

ns o

f Cd

(ton

nes)


RES support scheme costs in Poland


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Climate policy benefits from nuclear power in Poland

2 NPPs with combined capacity of ca. 6 000 MWe

Electricity production of 50 TWh per year

Saving of >36 million tons* of CO2 each year or even more if cogeneration (district heating) is considered

This is 24% of current CO2 emissions per year in Polish electricity generation sector

*in comparison to modern coal power plants with emissions rate less than 750 kg/MWh


Source: Update of forecast of fuel and electricity demand until 2030, ARE S.A., June 2013

Electricity demand in Poland will be growing

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Households

Agriculture

Industry and construction

Trade and services

Transport

Update of forecast of final electricity demand

[TWh]

Households

Trade and services

Industry and construction

Agriculture

Transport

According to study made by EMA in June 2013 the final electricity consumption in Poland will increase by 36% in 2030 which is 1.5% on a year-by-year basis.

Total electricity demand currently is ca. 160 TWh/y.


Introduction of nuclear power in Poland

National Atomic Authority

Investor (PGE S.A.)

Other entities

Safety regulations, licensing Implementation of the investment project (site,

technology, financing model selection)

Technical inspection, technical support

MoE

Policymaking, strategies (PNPP, Strategies for HR development and waste

management) Lawmaking

Coordination

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PNPP – Who does what?

PNPP is currently being revised in terms of

schedule and financing method


PNPP drafting,

public consultation, cross-border consultations

06.2010 – 06.2013

07 – 08.2013

PNPP updating including

cross-border consultations

comments

PNPP adopted by

the Minister of Economy

09.2013

10 – 11.2013

Interministe-rial

consultations

PNPP adopted by the Council

of Ministers

28.01.2014

09.2014

Owner’s Engineer

selected – contract with

AMEC Nuclear UK

Ltd.

Waste manage-ment plan (policy) adopted by

the Council of Ministers

12.2015

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PNPP: What has been achieved so far…


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PNPP: What is foreseen…


Report on the implementation in 2014 – 2015 of the PNPP has been adopted by the Government on 2016.10.14 with following recommendations:

•Minister of Energy has to update the timetable of the implementation of the PNPP,

•Ministry of Energy will continue earlier started work on it’s updating including financing model and tendering procedure,

•The results of above activities will be presented to the Government in I quarter 2017 and the updated version of the PNPP until the end og 2017.

Comparison of averaged electricity generation costs for technologies foreseen to implement in PL from 2025

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Source: Update of study of electricity generation costs with nuclear, coal, gas power plants and RES, EMA, April 2013

Assumed discount rate: 6% Nuclear investment cost: €4,000,000/MWe


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Electricity generation structure (energy mix)

Sources:

1) Update of forecast of fuels and energy demand, EMA, June 2013

2) Statystyka elektroenergetyki polskiej 2015 (Statistics of Polish power sector 2015), EMA, Warsaw 2014


Possible NPP sites


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Possible NPP sites


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Status of PNPP implementation – radioactive waste management

The National Plan of radioactive waste management and spent

fuel management was adopted by the Council of Ministers in

October 2015 and was notified to European Commission.

The National Plan is setting goals for further works, defining tasks for the institutions involved in management of radioactive waste and spent nuclear fuel, schedules for achieving goals. It also includes an inventory and estimates future quantities of the radioactive waste.

The process of site selection for a new low and medium radioactive waste repository is under way that includes also public consultation with local communities in some locations.

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dit: P

osiv

a

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dit: P

osiv

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Source: PAA

Photo: ZUOP


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In February 2016, U.S. transportation emitted more carbon dioxide than the fossil-fuel-heavy power sector for the first time since 1978.


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Natural gas and other conventional energy sources are replacing power generated by shuttered nuclear reactors, according to federal energy data


Prezentacja - Curabitur fermentum, leo eget auctor porta

Thank you for attention

Departament of Nuclear Energy

Ministry of Energy Pl. Trzech Krzyży

3/5 00-507

Warszawa

tel +48 22 693 49 79

fax +48 22 693 40 46

email [email protected]

web www.me.gov.pl

polish approach to nuclear project climate-energy...

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