political legitimacy in a non-optimal currency area

7/27/2019 Political Legitimacy in a Non-optimal Currency Area

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Political Legitimacy in a Non-optimalCurrency Area

Fz W. Shf

N. 52 | O 2013

WORKING PAPER


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2 | KFGWorking Paper No. 52 | October 2013

KFG Working Paper Series

Edited by the Kolleg-Forschergruppe Th Tsfv Pw f E

Th KFG W P Ss svs dss h sh ss f h K-Fsh

h v d . I s h d xh s w s sh d d

xs s sh d x ds sss E d h E U.

A KFG W Ps v h KFG ws www.sf. dd v

[email protected].

Ch f hs ss: Fz W. Shf

Ed sss d d: Ad Bh d F Bh

Shf, Fz W. 2013: P L N- C A, KFG W P Ss, N. 52, O

2013, K-Fsh (KFG) Th Tsfv Pw f E, F Uvs B.

ISSN 1868-6834 (P)

ISSN 1868-7601 (I)

Ths hs fdd h G Rsh Fd (DFG).

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Ph: +49 (0)30- 838 57033

Fx: +49 (0)30- 838 57096

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www.sf.


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Political Legitimacy in a Non-optimal Currency Area| 3

Political Legitimacy in a Non-optimal Currency Area

Fritz W. Scharpf

Abs

O h ss f f s f h ss d s f h E ss, hs xs, -

f d hh, whh h w E , ss s s d s-sd

fs, d hv vd h s f h ss s d wh s dsss d s

. A s wh h f sf-sd Ks sss h, h

ss, sss s , wh h hs d sv v sd-

s. I h f sh ds hs, s z E s

v h v h -d, d d f

E v.

Th Ah

Fritz W. Scharpfs Es D f h Mx P Is f h Sds

f Ss C. H h Lw h Y Lw Sh d P

S h Uvs f Cs. I 2009 d 2013, Fz W. Shf ws

s fw h K-Fsh. Hs ssv sh hs f-sd h f h jd, v d h,

h ss f v v G d h E

U, d h v f d wf ss.

C: [email protected]


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Cs

1. Id 5

2. Pf f h O E R 6

2.1 CentralizedMonetaryPolicyinaNon-opmalCurrencyArea 7

2.2 EuroCrisisandEuro-rescuePolicies 10

3. Th Nw R f E Gv 12

3.1 RevisedProblemPerceponsandtheirImplicaons 13

3.2 FromSoRecommendaonstoHardenedRequirements 13

3.3 WhatiftheNewRegimeHadBeeninPlace? 15

4. Th E R: Wh s Gd d Wh Ws Ls? 17

4.1 LimitedGains 18

4.2 InsteadofNominalDevaluaon,CompeveRealDevaluaon 18

4.3 ObstaclestotheManagementofAggregateDemand 19

4.4 GlobalCapitalismandSelf-inictedHelplessness 204.5 ButCouldtheRegimebePatched? 20

5. I L f h Ps E R? 24

6. Cd P U Pvd h S? 26

6.1 TheRiskofPolicizaon 26

6.2 LegimateMajorityRule? 28

Rfs 30


5/34


1. Id1

I s f d d sss f E d d, d s f sd

ds v s f h E P (EP), 57 f Essd h h dd s h E U S 2007 h s, f h s f h

s ss. B h d f 2012, hwv, sss h s E qs dd

h s hd f 33 , d dss f h EU hd s f 32 57 (Z 2013; s

s, Rh . 2013). B f s ws hh 2007, d f dd s h s f vs

hs h d qs f E v ss, h sss h h dsd-

f s d E svs ds f h d d d

dssss f h d d. Ths d s d h ds w h

-d d h -d ds f (Shf 1970; 1999) w

Ls v f h d h w ss d ssv

v (M 2009).

I v h, h ss f -d s d. Th v ws

f v dd ss, d d wh s h d h h f

v v s d f s. A h s , hwv, hs ws

sd ssv, d, vdv s vs. H h

f v sf s qs f fs sv h d f h d

wh s s s d sdds f js. Wh -d h f f

v ss h d, h -d f d sf-v s s.

Id, v shd s f h q f zs s-d

ds dd s. I sv ds, h s h vs

shd ssv hs ds s h fs d ss f s f

h s. T s ssvss, d sss dd v f s-

s, h s f whh s h dd f vs h s f f,

q, d, d v s.

Cqs f E d d hv fsd -d ds f EU -

sss d ss. B s E s ws d d fd -s

ss, zs w d fd wh h v w f EU v. A h s, -s vs w vs vvd EU -, d vs d d hv

sd h ws hd h w vs f h xs f v

ws, dss f h E vs. Bs f hs -d

d (Shf 2012), dssss f h EUs d d hv d d

1 Th ws w d s s vs fw f h K-Fsh Th Tsfv Pw

f E h F Uvs f B (A-J 2013). I f Tj Bz d Ths Rss f h

v d f h h v d h dssss KFG fws. A

s d f h d f h x KFG s d f hf

s Ths Rss, whs s h s vs I hv s d d. A h

Mx P Is f h Sd f Ss, sh f h hs d f

dssss wh M H d f h sss f A B. A sh vs f h

w Of C/S B. H (ds.), D Ps E U d Sss. Oxfd

Uvs Pss (2014).


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sss d ds s, h hv hvd hh s. I ss s,

hf, h hh v f s h EU s d f -

d d f zs f -d ds h E v.

I h , hwv, hs hv hd. E s w d h h

d ss d h s f Lh Bs. h f f 2008. Ssq,

s ss f h E M U (EMU) w hd sv sv

whh ws d s E ss. I h sv h E s, E hs h

C, h Css, h E C B (ECB) d h T hv h d vd

h vs f s f zs d h , s d s fs f s EMU

ss. I h ds, hs s hv s f sdd h d d

h s f ss hs ss. I h ss, hwv, h hv s dsd -

d d hs h v, hv fd s wh

qs h d j wh dsvw h E . I sh,

h E ss d h s wh hv dsd h ds f

d s h d vs, s, d d s f xss f E v-

h hv d h ssv sss d h hzd

zs ds wd h EU.

As sq, h E s w fd wh s d f h -

d s whh d f h s f h s ss, s wh h

h sd s f s -d d d whh hs f sd

h s f E-s s. Ws , I w , h E ss hs d fd -

d: If h M U s d, h s qd h ss s

f d hv sqs h w s hv -d

f ss d hs h E v.

B d ssh h s f hs s, s s ss x h d

s ss f h s d f d h ss f v h -

sv vss f h M U f dsss h s f

sss h -d ds f E . I dsss h f f h

M U, I w ddss h f h EMU s h E ss d sh sss, s w s h w E h hs s h s f h

ss d v s -, d I w h -sv vss f h

s E-v .

2. Pf f h O E R

Th s ds f h EMU d h s h E ss w

s w dsd (Shf 2011; D Gw 2012; N E 2012): B j h M

U, ss s h h d s -f-s s d h


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sd s f d hh h f -

ds dd. Ad hh s s d vs, h s f -

ss ws s sd h S P d h f h vs

d ss ds h w . I dd, ss s s h f s d f s s s f s qd ss. Exh-

d w zd d xsd h ECB wh d s s

h Ez. Ths , ws xd, wd d f h s f h M U

h s whh h qs-s s f h Bundesbankhd dd f h G

(Ds C 1989; Css 1990).

2.1 CentralizedMonetaryPolicyinaNon-opmalCurrencyArea

I s wd wdd, hwv, h h Ez ws h d s w wh R Md

(1961) dd s (OCA) s, h s, whh zd

s hv s s s.2 B s w , f s

sss s v s ss (Fss/Lvss 2013). I f,

hwv, h Ez ds x hs sh f f hd- d

s- s wh d ds dv dvs s ss, -

dsv ss d s d, v , d w-s ss (Shf

1991; Cfs 2001; H/Shf 2012; H 2013). H, v hh h ECB hs sdd

w s f h Ez s wh, s d

ss.3

Ths ds dd v h s v f s s. B

h hd h f v hs hh s s w- s, sh s

G, d v w v v s s h f s- s. As

sq, ds dd ws dd h s f s d sd

h sdd v f v h d h sd. Th s dv ws h

fh hd h ss f f ECB s whh w, f s, sv

f h s, d s f h sd f s.

2 R dss w f s s xs s s; d fd ss h Ud

Ss d G h s s h f s dv

s d s. B hs fd ss, h dv-s f

ss w d h qz s f f x, zd s , h-

z d v s-qz s, d f s s f h

sd d s s. I sh: h Ez s - s

s fd s.

3 I M 2005, h ECB xd M d ds hs

(h://www..//df/h/61_77_200505.df, vd 01 O 2013) d d h h

E sh ds dd ss v , whs h w vsd wh w h

Ud Ss. Th s d h f ECB d sd hs

ds.


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Th dsz s f hs s d hv f-

s, d h w f fs s A d Ks ss (K 1990;

Eh 1990; Eh/Fd 1994; H/N 1994; Fds 1997). O h

v E, hs ws hd d s h s ws s s E h f f hss G . Ad h w jd

h ds h Csss (1990) sd d O M, O M, whh, sd

s d -xs sss, dsd h s f ss h

. Mv, ws xd h h M U sf wd

v h h f Ez s. Rdd s ss wd s d, d

wd qz s d ds w ss. A h s , h v f -

ss d f -f-s ss wd f ss-d ws

h h- dv f v wd s. I sh, h s f -

wd xd h ss ssd wh h ss f s xh s.

M f hs xs w s s f s h w. B h w s . Wh,

ss, ws d w h sss f s h v h

vs d dsvs f ss d h dsz s whh hs wd hv

h vs. I f, hh s s dd d h dd f d G

d shd h h ss f 20012005, whs G, Id, P, S

d I (h GIIPS s), ds dd ws sd h sdd v f x

h d. Th ECB ws sz hs s; s f s

xdd h s d dd h sss h Ez.4

I h d, G, whh hd h s f E h f h dd, d

h s ss hh f w s d s-sd fs. I -

, hs ss fd x-d v d sd xs f w-w -

. A h s , hwv, h d f ds dd d s xs d ssv

x s s - sss d ssv d-v f h

xh . I h GIIPS s, s, d-d ds dd d s,

d s dd s, wh ( h -s s), d ws. Ad

, h ws d- f x s v s - ds d

vs v-vd v xh s h zd xs, js s G xs w s-sdzd d-v.5

4 D Gw (2012, 17682) vds d f s dv wh d s, -

s s, d hs s, d h s dss h dv w h ECB d dsd s

s f dvd s dd f h s. B h ds h h

f f s shs h ECB zd, h h h s s s dsz

ss.

5 Ths s d h s f s ds ds d s h

ss d s s, s d v x s f h GIIPS

s d s d wh s ds f vs d s G.

Th s h wh h dsf vs d ss d h M U h s

f sh ds d d wd hv d s sss s s s

f whh hd x v f h jd h EMU.


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Figure1:CurrentAccountsasaPercentageofGDP(19992008)

Figure2:RealEecveExchangeRates,19992008(ULC/Index1999=100;EU15)


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R, hwv, hs s w d s s f E

-s. Rs GIIPS ds w s d ws f G d h ss

s, d hs sd s h x f h- dv.6 Th

ECB s hd sdd s h s f s s d sw js fv s ss- d h -s s Id d S. Ad s h

Msh T d h S P dd s f s (whh w v-

fd Id d S, d vd P h G F 3, w), h

h Css vs hd ss f d sh. B h hd

wh h s f h ss h f f 2008.

2.2 EuroCrisisandEuro-rescuePolicies

Th d f h Lh s ws wd-wd d sqz whh h s

h s d fd vs d s (d h ECB) v Ks

, d sv h v-xdd ss v s. Ths -s ds s-

d vwh. B h d sqz h hds hs Ez s h hd

dd ws f d. Th s w shd h ds s-

s whh s h h -s ds, whh hd x w Id d S

d hh P h G f 2008, s s s h. I , hs

s vh f v-s ddss ws sfd -s d

(F 3). Ad wh s sdd, h GIIPS ss w dd

s-d ss.

F h sv f vss, ss f h M U w v

h ss dd h w s vs d dfd h sv -

, d s h Msh h f s sd h

ECB s d f s s (D Gw 2012, 120). Ad wh h M U, GIIPS ss w

h s s f sv s s h h - ds sd ds

h f h s sv d h d v d -s d.

H s h v ds sd s whh, s sf-f h, dq d h qd f ds, s h s f sv sv, s G,

d x Id d P.

6 Ev Nv 2008, h Fh ECB C B Cf, Adw Rs (2009: 251) dd h

h EMU hs d vs ; s d d h shz f sss s, EMU ds

h d f . Th s, EMU ss h h

.


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Figure3:GovernmentconsolidatedgrossdebtasapercentageofGDP

O vs G d h ss s zd h G h

d s h h ss d h E, h s hd sd hw

sh svs wd h s ss f h w s whh hd sfd svs

d x sss GIIPS - ds. Mv, s f h E wd s

hv d h x s f d-vd xh (F 2, v). I hs h,

h sv h E s d h dsd f h Msh Ts -

s s svd h s f h d s.

I h d, hwv, h f d-sd E-s fds d h f T-2

sss h ECB s f d s (S/Wshs 2011) hd h f

sf v-s ss -s ss whh, h s f df, wd hv

hd d-s xs.

Mv, s h G v hd dd h s d sss hd fdd v h s,

h E ss ws wd d h s ss f h G d h GIIPS vs.

Ad v hs f (whh ws s f G d w f Id d

S7), s ds d fds sd d s w vdd -

, hs, d sv. Ad d h d f fh ds s q s ss, h

w d d d ds q ssv sd s d x ss whs

ws s d T f s f h Css, h ECB, d h IMF. As

7 S F 3, v. G -s d hd v hh , hd sd f h

s f h ss. S d Id, hwv, hd d dd -s ddss

vs f w h Msh f 60 f GDP, d v fh w h G v. I s f

-s d, v P hd f fd h G f 2008.


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d d shd hv xd, hwv, s s s d d s-

s wd d h d d hs s -s ds (Thd/W

2012; K 2013). I , hf, E-s s fs h s f GIIPS -

s xsv h s-d s hv shd d s d d ss d s ss, wh s xd 25 d h

v 50 G d S, d xssv hh vs h d s s w.

Figure4:Unemploymentratesasapercentageofthelaborforce

3. Th Nw R f E Gv

I h , hwv, s h h f sv sv ss hv d.

B h s f sss ws hvd hh h sss f s fds (whs

s, s s d , dd d ssq sv s), hhh h ECBs d d whv s sv h E. I , h

h, f ss, wd h ds f hd ss hh Oh M

Tss (OMT) ws wd s h h ECB ws w d w s qs-d

f s s f s f vs s w. As sq, s qs

dfdd s d v d f s-d ss, hv

f w E whs s s s h - v f h M U d whh

s f d h vs ss -s s .


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3.1 RevisedProblemPerceponsandtheirImplicaons

Th s v h s E w fd h E Css (2010)

h f v w h s f h ss d h s f fs Ess s I-E-A Cvss d Is. I ss ssh,

hh wdd, vs f h h-sd xs whh, h Csss (1990)

O-M-O-M , hd jsd d dd h f h M U.

Ev hh h s- d s hd, h xs dvd f

hv dd d. Th f h fs wd v h-

h Ez hs dsd. Isd, h s dd f h E s dsd s d

f s s f s d d sss f vss s s

whh w s s h hs h sssf d ss f f EMU h

(Css 2010: 3). Isd f fs, s s h shd hv vd

hs d h s w d h s. B s h Css qs

h M U sf d s ss, s dsss h h f

s. Ad v hh h ws d s w hvd hh s

, h s f ( d s) f

dd h E vs d.

B xs, hf, h Csss ss fs xsv wh w w

d-, d- d s d h ds sds d h

v. Dvd f ss f , vs ssd

v d x s wh h ss f d x d

sd s: ItisthereforeessenalthatMemberStatesputinplaceanambiousandcomprehen-

sivepolicyresponsegearedatspeedingupandimprovingintra-areaadjustmentmechanisms().The

policyresponseshouldbecomprehensive.Itshouldcovermeasuresinfourkeyareas:scalpolicies,credit

markets,labourmarkets,andproductandservicemarkets (Css 2010: 3). Th f h

s hf dvd -s dssss d ds ss h s

h shd svd h vs qs.

3.2 FromSoRecommendaonstoHardenedRequirements

Wh ws sd J 2010, hwv, h hd f h h d -

ds f h Bd E P Gds d h xhs f h Ls Pss, whh

hd hs (Ds . 2008). B h hd d wh

h d ss d E ss d wh s ds s f G d

h f Id d P w ssd wh h ds h w dd

h Css d d h T. Ths dd x s s -

qs s wd f s fs sd h ds d

h 2010 x h w hs d fd whhd h x s f h


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ds h wd sv h s f sv. Ad wh h hd dd h d

f fs s, h q Md f Udsd d h Ts

s w d d dd, s whh ws d s s shd

hd; whh zs shd zd; whh s fs d s-wdss hv vzd; whh ss, wf s d ws s ; d

hw -s js hv d.

I, f s, hs ws w v f s hd d f s ds s f

w, G, Id, P, d Cs d s hs Sv. B D 2011, C d

P dd Sx P f s d dvs h EMU ss, d-

ss f d hs f s sv. Th wh h Tw P, h E Ss,

h Fs P, d h zd svs h s w v-

f h M U h xds zd s f d h h d

h s f h Msh T.

Th s s s d v s h Exssv I Pd

(EIP) sshd w s f h Pv d C f M Is (EU

1174 d 1176/2011). Th xd h Csss svs, , d s ws

dd f s, wh f h dvs f E d

s. Wh s s h h w ws w ssf theneedforastrongerframework,

andreinforcedgovernance,includingnancialdisincenves,toensurethatrecommendaonsareappro -

priatelytakenintoaccountatnaonallevel(Css 2012).

Th, h EIP ss Css-dd Sd f s v ss ds

whh, h wh d w hshds, d h f x

d s8 h w d s h Css. Fds sd

d hs s, d -dh vws f s whh s

hv dd. If h Css ds xssv , h x s w s f

ds fwd d dd wh whh h M S d s

s v (1176/2011, A. 7.2). If d h Css d C, h

s d. If h Css s ssd wh s , s ds

ssh -, whh w v ss h C ss qd -j (1176/2011, A. 10. 4). Th x s h s ds, s s-

ds f 0.1 f GDP h s f -, d h s

ss f d - d f s v . A,

ss sd h Css sd h C hh vs-qd-

j vs (1174/2011, A. 3).

8 Ths d s, s, x shs, ss, v xh

s, v s d, v s d ws, hs hs s, v d, -

s d s s.


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Q f h ds ds h Cs , hs s f sv-

ss: Fs, wh h x f -s d, f h s sd h

Sd d d h f vs. I s s ssd h h h

d d hh h s f ss v ss. Sd, hs d sf whh s d. Isd, recommendaons()

shouldbeaddressedtotheMemberStateconcernedtoprovideguidanceonappropriatepolicyresponses.

ThepolicyresponseoftheMemberState()shoulduseallavailablepolicyinstrumentsunderthecontrol

ofpublicauthories(1176/2011, #20). I h wds, h s f E d

s h ws hvd h Ls T w s h d f d -

ds h EIP s d. Mv, h s vd s f h Csss

ssv hs. S hs s -s d sd hh d

v ds, h s sd h Csss f f d s

-dh vws. U h S P, hf, h Exssv I Pd s ,

d , -sd . Wh hs s s d -

sd x . B h, f s, ds s s -sv vss.

3.3 WhatiftheNewRegimeHadBeeninPlace?

A h f w, h vss f h w ssssd h ss f s -

d. Nvhss, x, f, hw d hv vd h s f

s h s f h M U d, hh, hw d d wh h s

ss f h Ez. I hs ssss, w ss s d s v.

Fs, h w E ds df h fd ds f M U -

. I h wds, xh s djsd, d

s f f h Ez. Gv ds s, w hs -

- dsz d dv-s ss f s

wh v-v d w-v ds (Ed 2004; N E 2012). Ad,

sd, h Fs P d h Sx-P d Tw-P s hv shd, h h xd,

h s v h s f xs s s h v. Th qs s, hf,whh h ss s v vs (ss h h Css

d hv f v h xs) wd s h s f d x

s f d ss.

19992008:CouldtheRiseofImbalancesHaveBeenPrevented?

B wh h s foverheangeconomies, sh s S Id, ss s h

hh xs s d w d s d hv dd h d-

d s f ds dd. Mv, vs d hv sd s s h


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v vss f s d hs d. B s, h s h d hv

d v h s f ss d. Ex hs shw h s w s

xd d f (Shf 1991), d h s ds d whh

s d s d f v w s x d-d d hh h-dd d h d dd xs -ss Sh E

Id (H 2013). Mv, h s-sd fs whh h Css s s s

hh s Md f Udsd wd hv dv h d-2000s: Th

w s s dzd d -dv, h d wd ws s s

. If ws wd x, h wds, h s f ss d sd

h s f ss .

T h s fdepressedeconomies, sh s G (20012005), d ds d-

d dd d s d h s f - sss. B s

s w s s hh x s d d sd w d ,9 s wh

h Css d hv dd d s ds dd. Ev f w ss

hd sdd (Fss/Lvss 2013), s wd hv fd h fh s f -

. I h Csss h fw, hf, h d wd d:

s wd hv f s h dd d s s.

B s s d d v , h d hvd

d h ss f d whh f h Csss sv shd sdd

d s wd s s x s. I s, hs s wh f hd

G, wh v w s ws d wh s-sd fs h d-

d s d dd h sv ws f h d. I h d, h s

fd x-d v d h xs f w-w d

svs. B s d s sss, xs, d dvd

v xh , whh f s d h ss f vss f h GIIPS -

s. I , hf, v f h s E hd d 1999, d

hv vd h s f x s.

20092013:HowCouldtheNewRegimeCorrecttheEectsoftheCrisis?

Ev f s svs w vd h ECBs s f OMT s d h d v-

f h E S Mhss (ESM) ds, d v f dd ss shd

vd B U, h GIIPSeconomies f h Ez s s f ssv

d x s: d d, d h s f E-s s,

v s s f s s, wh -s d s s. Mv,

, h , d v hv s sh vs. Ad v

9 G ws d v h d s f h S P s f h f

szs.


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hh h dss hs dd ds dd d ws, s s d d,

wh h x f Id, h dv ss s s s f f -

h f -v xh s h Ez.

Ud hs ds, h s E w ss s s d s-sd

fs d x ds d v vss. As s v xh

s s vvd, dv d f ss s hvd

w ws. Mv, h Csss ds s ss h d h

ss f ss , -dv ws w f d h wd ws dd

v . H s Md f Udsd f h s f s ds hv

d -s s wh s d s-sd fs h hv h f s

h w s d h d (Shf 2011). If h d s ss

vhss , wd ss h ws hv f s h xs

f w-w d h x-d wh whh d G f s ss

2005. I sh: s s sd.

Surpluseconomiessh s G hd sv sv, d hh h x

s h s f d s, h d h h s

f h E. S wh h EIP ss ddss sss s w s ds, h Css (2012) d-

dd dsd Gs - sss d h s s d-v

f s v xh . O s10 h h d G vss h

E wd s w h Ezs f vs--vs h s f h wd. Bd h,

hwv, s s hd s wh ss h Css d hv qd s

ds dd d ss G. Gv h ss f h Fs P, d

s h v s d sd d x s. I s d s f s q

ss d s sv ss d sd , q s d s hh

ws h v s. I sh, h w E s wss d wh h x

s f ss s s vs v ss.

4. Th E R: Wh s Gd d Wh Ws Ls?

Ex f h M U s ss sdd E -s d h

d dvss s s s ssd wh hv, xd

d ss. Nvhss, s sf h -sv f h s E

wh h s ss s wh h jd h E, f f h s f s-

h hs h hv fd f h E s d.

10 I s h Gs sh h xs f GIIPS s s q s, v w

8.7 Id d 12.6 I 2010, wh h sh f GIIPS s G

xs s 11.1 (OECD d). H h d f hh ds dd dd

vss G f h ss s h q s.


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4.1 LimitedGains

Cd h h f h O M, O M (Css 1990), s d-

fss f h E h sd. B h s ss h h s hs sd Eswh s; h hs dd s ss d

d x s; d h hs d h s f v d-

v s s. I w f f h s, qs- ,

h h w dsv s .

Ys, h hv ss f h E hs dd h s fexchangeratevolality Ez -

s, s sh s Swd Nw d s sv wd-wd s s hv d

d wh hs s, js s ss hv d s sh hs wh d Hhw

d s d ds Swss ss d xs. S h s f w s ss

q s vwh. Ad s, h s f h M U xsd s-

v s h s. B d h vs s f xh- d

(B Wds h E M Ss f 19791999), sh s w v fq

d h dd f ss hd s h h ws dfd

s xh . Ad wh E ss w dd s f s h xh

s, h s f sv s h sv f h sv d, whh wd f

h w dd h w .

4.2 InsteadofNominalDevaluaon,CompeveRealDevaluaon

Ad s, h M U hs d d h fcompevedevaluaon

s s. B dvs w v , d vs hd d f f h sd

h s s s wh ss f x vss. S wds hw -

v dv ws d wd . Wh ss h w,

s, s h h M U d h Csss x s f

ss v-s f v dv wh h s d wh

x ds wh ds ss d s . Ev f s d dv w q v, h ds s q d.

N dv s . I ds s s h f s d f f

vs f vd, h d . Ad hvd s ds f h v

h . R dv, s, hvd hh w s hs

s wh , zd d shsd s d w

hs d hs s. Evwh s, hwv, h w hv hvd

d, hh wf s d s-sd fs h s h ss f ss -

d w h d d h d. I h s, v, h d

fs xsv ws, wh ws w f ss h v

h f vss.


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4.3 ObstaclestotheManagementofAggregateDemand

Th M U shd h w s f d f s whh fs

s wh dd d sh h ss f x vss. Ad f sh s wd sd dv s , h wd s h ss

f d s d d x d -

s. Ths ss d d s, d wh sss s w s s

dvd s d sss s w s ds h x s. Th s

EMU , s, s dsd d wh h s f s f hs -

x s h h h s f h E. Ad s sd ddss hs

s s.

If h f s fexcessdemand, d s d ss

f vss, h EIP vs d ds dd

s xs s d s s d s h s h s d

h v f s, hs, d vs d. B h f -

ss, sv s w h hv v s, h s v

h sw whh s sss s hzd h v- d dsh

h s- s. Mv, h s f hh sv x d s f h ss

f sh- w ss w s

d h s f h s v, whh f vs xs. I

sh, v f h w v d ds dd, h d f-

f hs ss d.11

Evss s v , hwv, f h f s insucient

demand, ssd wh s d s f ss whh, , w

xd - ss. If s sss f d s d

d v xh s sdd s xssv s, h s s

s vs h wd s ds dd d hh x s d vs-

s, d s qs whh s f d s wd hv h wh h

xs f ss d vss v. Ths h Css wd -

d s h d h d f s d s f - sss.

Ad f s w sdd s w, h E wd fd wh h d

sd h G ss h ss f 20012005: If h sds hv

x-d v hh dv, s sss w h ds f hs, d s

v vss w hd h sss f h s. Ad h

w ss ss f vss s, f s, dv. I h wds,

s w , h s E s s s f dv whh,

h s f dv, h h s s

dss ws d w ds d s s q Ez s.

11 M Fd s d hv sd: Th dv f s h s s h h

f h hsds f v s.


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4.4 GlobalCapitalismandSelf-inictedHelplessness

I shd hszd, v, h hs s sss sf-d. Th

f h E h hs h d wh h sss d ss f zd d d s. Of s, hh dszd s d h s sh d s-

vss f hshd s d s, d f h w fd wh

d f h v d hs s s s. B s sd h M

U hs w d d hs d hh d

xh , h hh vs d q s s dfd v-

ss hh dv.

Ad f s s ds d h ws s f d w d

h s, sd, d , h h. I ws h h v f s

v, h d f s, d h s f f s h s

dsd f h d s hh - vss h

(S 2013). B s sd h M U d h EU hv s h fd

x d v ss h wd s h dfd h w s d

s. Ev ss, , h h hs s hh h hv v

wd d wvs.12 P-s h Ez, s, hv h sss d sd

h E d h x ss f v d -h hs

sd I-M s d E w (Shf 1999; 2010).

4.5 ButCouldtheRegimebePatched?

I h , dsssf wh h s E s w, h ss

s, s - s swh d v -s h

E v. Mv, ss wh f h s- d f h s-

hv x h ss f Ks ds h ss. B s h

d d s d dfd h M U, h h

s s s ds d f qs. As sq, h ss s s s dd-s hs h . I w dsss h f hs.

Th s s, wagecoordinaon, whh hd d Ks s f hs w

dsd s (Shf 1991), s w d s s h E ss sd -

ssd h Rs Lx Fd f h G L P (Fss/Lvss 2013). I

12 Mh f h -E dsss h E L s, vw, d w s d

f s. Th E s s s d f -hv v h s

h hs s h v (f x, Hs 2011; 2013). Th s hd h -

sh h h E sf d E j f h , h

h s s. Ad h f s ss fs h sh f ss h d w h

v.


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sss h w s Ez s shd fw h Gd R, d whh

w ss shd dd h s f dv s h f h

ECB. Th s ss wh h Csss (2010) f h dv ss f

ss w h x ss f dv vss. Ad s f ECB shv dsz s f s d, h sd f w ss

sss h v w d h f v h fd f

- . I h wds, f h s w zd, d

v h v f h M U. Uf, hwv, h s fs

ddss s w fd ds.

Th s s h s . I h hv wd f hd dd d d 1999

wh, s, d xh s w h Ez -

s d d h hv szd hh h Gd R. I h , hwv, h

hv dvd d. Ad v f h R w w fhf d GIIPS s

G s w, wd, h hs w s, w dds hv f

v f ss d xh s. If h w d h ,

wd s wh h Csss s f sd dv hh

w s.

Th sd s h h s s s w s ds (Ss/Ivs 1998).

T , s dsd h w d wd q h Gd R

fwd q, wh ws s d wh h f ss. I h s s-

, h sss ss (Os 1982) s wh zd dsh h s

wf h s w dds wh h s d s. B

w s d d ss q ss s sss w

v w d ds s hh ws h . Ad dw-

, hs s sss wd hv v- w ss, d h

wh h s h wd s hv v -v w sss h h sv js

(Kwh 2001).

Ths s ds hv v f zd wh, h w xd

f d ds fw s, whs v ss s h s h shv v ss (Shf 1991; Hss 2006). I h j f Ez s, h d

xs (D Cj . 2008; H 2013). Ws s, h Css s s d ds-

h ss f szd w d. I s s f h w x wd

s v h M U, hs sd h ds f E-s

ds ds v s d d dz w s h s f

h -s s hd Thh d R h 1980s. I sh, ss x

h h ss - E d s vd hh s

Ks w d.


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Th sd s f an-cyclicalscalcapacity h f f djs s fd

sshd h E v ws dd J 2012 h Ts Pd-

Sh G f E ss (N E 2012: 3032). I ws s dd -

s f h Psd f h E C, h d ssq C ss d h Csss (2012) B f d d d .13 B h

d ws h f h F Psds (f h E C, h Css,

h E G, d h ECB) whh hszd h d f commonbutlimitedshockabsorpon

funconhcouldtaketheformofaninsurance-typesystembetweenEuroareacountries.Contribuons

from,anddisbursementsto,naonalbudgetswoulductuateaccordingtoeachcountrysposionover

theeconomiccycle(V R . 2012: 1011).14 I h , v, Ed . (2013)

hv sd h f djs s fd d d sd s-

sd shw h sfs h ds w dvd- s d h

Ez v wd hv shd h sss s f s.

Th s s f w ss: Fs, wds h xs f h - d-

sz s f f whh d h s--x-

s d h vd h f h M U. Ad, sd, wds h d

f - s ss h s whh d h S

P d h Fs P. If hs shs hd dd h Csss (1990) O M, O M

ss d h Msh T, h E wd hv d q h ss dd. Th qs

s, hwv, whh h ds, f h w dd w, wd s h wh h ss h

w f dd.

O qs s h v vss f - s wh s wh

- d. I G hs, , h hv sv -

ss whh h Bundesbanks s d h s f h vs s x-

s (Shf 1991). B h s h v. Th s s d s,

d x dsshs hs f s s d vd h vs

s f - s sfs EMU ss. B f s h ssv d

ss s h Ez s s h h s.

Ad d h s E hs d wh hh s qs d s-sd

fs d d ds dd d ss v x s. I hss s, hf, h xs f - s ss wd hv

- ss ( h f w, ECB s sdd

s f G d s sv f GIIPS s), s h d s f h

s qs. Th s s h hs ss d hv.

13 Th Css dd dd s s sd Cv d Cv Is

vs s s s-sd s fs

(Css 2012: 2123).14 Th f h F Psds s s - ssds s ss-

s s v.


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G d h, s f h qs fgrowthpromoonthroughscalreaon

h wd s h sv ss h ss s. Sh

ds s d s s -f s, s d ds, wh

d h d s qs sd h ss s (f x, Bh2013; K 2013). If hs w xd, f s, wd d sd wd s

d h s d ss. S j s ss wd hv d h hh

s ssdzd x d (hh Eds h OMTs f h ECB) hh ssv

s sfs f h ss ss h d ss. Th s, hwv, h h

f ssv s , ss s fs, wd d h dd

s f h s E .

Th s s d x ds hh s d h ss f vss

hh dv d s ss d h s f v s ss

, s h d . Mssv s wd d s ds dd d

hs ds vs. B dss f hw s d, wd s s

d hs vs h d f - ds. H h v dd f h

s wd s . Ws , f s w v s-

, wd d, v vs, h dwwd sss ws, whh

h sss f h -dv s dds. If dv w f, hwv, d f

d h GIIPS s w v, j- v vs wd

f d s s ws ssdzd. Ud sh ds, v h EuropeanMarshall

Plan h s s d h G S Ds d s sf-ss

v.15

Th s f s d h d f ss sfs v s sh h

ss s sz h f hh-, d d s-sss sss. B wd

q v sf (d q ) f s16 vd s

h wd d s ss f sf-s d

.17

T d, ss h wh h s fw f h M U, dsssd

Ks dds ds f h ss s E d sv h sh- d d- ss f h ss s. Fs sfs wd

15 Th sss f h Msh P sw Ws G ssv dv f h w

dd Dsh.

16 If sfs w sd, f s, s s, h s f sv ws wd

d vss; f h w d s s, s d-

s dd wd s - ds; f dd fds w sd d -

s, h wd d d ss d h v vss s w s h -

.

17 Wh Es G ws d wh Ws G ss vvd xh whh ws -

d hh dv, hs h w dds, w Es f Ws-Es sfs

d ssds, s ssv - s GDP h s s 70 f

h Ws v.


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f sz s-s sss d v ss v, d h h s s

h f s-sd s h v vss. B h s

xd h d f s d d d-

d x sfs.

5. I L f h Ps E R?

F -d sv, h wds, h ss f sssf s f h E

ss d. If h M U s d, h f h hs

s/s-sd d Ks/dd-sd ssd wh s v sd s.

Ws , h hv x s ds sqs: Th s E -

ss ssv ss h d s, wh h d ss d x -

ss f h ss s. B s, h Ks v wd v h s f h

d ss wd dd ssv sfs h xs f xs d svs

h ss s. I s h h f hs ds hs h ds h h ss

f E d d dsssd.

I s s f, h E s dds h -d d

s h h s sd h ECB d sd C d h Css w, h

fs f, f h v f h ss s, d h h w h

v h f w s h s f h M U.

Ths hs hv d s s s h vds -f

s h f f -d sss d f d

h ss d.

Th f d s s vs h s f hEuropeanCentralBank, whh hs

- h w E . Is s szd h

d h ws f h G Bundesbank, whs h ddd s

d whs f ss d hv hd s j. I, h ECBs

-d hd sd h f h s d s s h Ez wd s d v d. I ws wd h q ds-

v s f s -d s dvd ss. Ad h f -d

sf hs dd h s ds, hh vs d

vs hs h s f d wh s sv h E. S f, hwv, h ECBs

s hs vd ss ss sj h xs f s

v ws -d d .

I swh s fsh, h wf f h EuropeanCommission E s d

h d f f E w hs ddd h -d d,

s Vv Shd (2013) hs ssd, hh-d h f dd d

s f h E s d f f s ss s h


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Mv, z E vs f -f- wd hdd

h ds zd h d s. Th M U d s dfs hv d

ssv s f whh h s d ss. Ev ss f Ks

d E Msh P, whh -f- wd s , s-sd wh s ss d dv sd s h d hd s h d f

s d h hss f h sss. I s, hwv, s wd

ddss h E ss d h s, h wd s fs h , , d

sss f -E ds.

Th dd s, f s, h h s f E shd d h sd

ss h h s d v d -

s (Hs 2011). Ad h s dd vd h Es hv h

s f E s h dsv s s sss f h w s (Ghds/

Lfd 2013). B h sd qd h E ss wd f s dd h . I f,

h w hv s h Ws-Es sfs G whh, f h d

w 1990 d 2010, w sd w Es (Bs 2012). I h s, hwv,

h f sd ws sf ds. Ad d , h sfs d zd

Es G h xs fd d wf-s f Ws G. Ths

Es Gs w s dd h -s-- s s ss, wh -

s w djsd s dd. S, h Nw Lnder f h hz d v

qz sh f G s fds, whh, h s h, s d

s w dd h w vs f s . Mv, xs -x

sh ws sd d d f dd sfs f h fd d. I h wds,

Ws-Es ds d d ws d s sss s s G s.

I E, hwv, h sshd dsv s h d s vd. N

d sd s f d. I wd hv E v d

whh, wh s (Rss 2011; Ghds/Lfd 2013), ss s h -

qsd ss f h d d hs . H dsv

s . Mv, h sss f Ws-Es ds G

w h s h hs h s E vss: Gv h x ddss

f ss s, f s, wd sd ds f w- x s ws d s h d ss? O d -s s sfs jsd s

s ss d x- fd h w xs f h h? Ad

shd s d s dd s v f h Ez, h

v wh whh s d qs h s f Id d h xs f Sv

d Es, f -E s, sh s R? I sh, h h f ss-sd,

-s, , s f wh shd d wh shd w v

vs, d s wd h qs f whh E s shd xz

d v shd h s d dvs f E ss

(A 2013). If hs sss w s E s, s h h d

svd sss.


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js f sss hs dss dss h s s, d h

f h ss d vs vvd s ss w s

h, wh sd d s w s xsv ds. Ev, h,

h w s f h h dvsv s, d s fv- h s f h h (Hs 1998) h s j v

f s sss. Th s s h h E zs, s h

ss, h s d h dd, hv d vd sd

ds hs h. I ws s h, hf, h EU - h -

d wd v ss d h ss f h C Mhd d f s-

s d h f s- d whh j vs wd

ddd dfdd s dss d d (Ps 2003).

Uf, hwv, h v s sss d h E v s w

d h d E s f h E ss. I hs h h

s vvd s h h. N h ds f h q ss, s h ss f

TV ws d d hds w ds d s h E ss

h hh ss fw s . B v f h d sh f

w, wh s w h h s s s d fs

h h ss. Ad wh h d s h E v

ss h sf-sd s f s w h v wd

sss d v dsh.

Wh s s, hwv, h ds d d dvsv s dsssd v. Th

s s ss ( d, f h ) dssss f v vs

h wd wd h ss f h E ss wh ds s h

v d s sz, h wh f ds f h ds f djs.

Ud hs ds, s d vd s s h

fs f E-wd d -E z. Isd, h wd hv d wh hh

s d v dvsv s v wh shd s d wh shd hv , f wh s

d hw h.

Ud hs ds, s z E s s d h f ss h E v v fh (B 2006). Ad f ds w

v s j , hs sd Nh

js d s v Sh ss, Sh d Es js v Nh

ss, h dd ds E hs.

I sh, f f f hh P U d E d, h E ss

ss s f h s - E , d wh v

v Ks hs d s sfs. Ths s s s. B h

s h s v.19

19 Th s, f s, -dd: I h s f ss wds, s-sd ds h

h v h vss f GIIPS s, wh s s wd d x s-

fs. B hs h s f d ws f h v f sfs w v s v-

ss d v wh ss w h d f sfs.


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Theodoropoulou, Soria/Wa, Andrew 2012: Wh Dd Th Ex? Lsss f E f sv x- v f h s G - , : ETUI W P2012/10, Bsss: E Td U Is.

VanRompuy,Herman/Barroso,JosManuel/Juncker,Jean-Claude/Draghi,Mario 2012: Twds GE d M U, 05 D 2012, : h://www.s../ds/s_D/ds/ssd///134069.df, vd 01 O 2013.

Zalc, Julien 2013: Th Es Ads E: A Dw Ld h Css?, :Fd R Sh, E Isss 277, 7 M 2013.


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Th K-Fsh - E Ad Exh d

Isv Rsh

Th K-Fsh (KFG) s w fd -hd h G Rsh Fd 2008. I s - f h KFG vd s s v

whh vv sh s d wh dss dd wh s f s d j shs.

Th K-Fsh Th Tsfv Pw f Es h sh E s h B-Bd- d szs h wh h v-ss d sh ss. I xs h f h EU s - d f ds, z h hss d sf d x ds sss h sh s:

Id d h P Sh

C, Cd d Bd

Cv Rs d Es Ex Rs

political legitimacy in a non-optimal currency area

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