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Poll shows rural voters oppose USPS cuts In selected rural, Republican districts in Battlefield PA, voters say they are less likely to back a candidate who supports defunding or privatizing the U.S Postal Service. Mail-in voting and in-person school show a sharp partisan split.

Despite a party breakdown of 56% Republican, 34% Democrat in this survey, reflecting the rural

Pennsylvania congressional districts sampled, 57% of these likely 2020 voters report they’d be less

likely to support a candidate who reduced the budget for the U.S Postal Service, or privatized the

agency, including 43% of Republicans.

52% of these likely voters report they are “not likely at all” to vote by mail this fall, driven almost

entirely by Republican voters’ strong rejection of the option. 68% of Republicans report they are

“not at all likely” to vote by mail while 53% of Democrats say they are “very likely.”

53% of rural voters say they are “very” or “somewhat” reliant on USPS service. Rural Republicans

profess much less reliance on USPS than rural Democrats -- just 17% of Republicans report being

“very” reliant while 43% of “Democrats” say the same, indicating a party effect.

51% of rural voters report being “concerned” about changes at USPS. Partisanship exerts strong

influence over rural voter attitudes. 63% of Republicans report they are “not at all concerned” by

changes at USPS while 71% of Democrats are “very concerned.”

62% of rural voters approve of President Trump’s handling of the pandemic, driven by the

disproportionate number of Republicans in these rural districts, and the high marks Republicans

give him. With a similar partisan effect, rural voters rate the performance of their elected state

officials, who are Democrats, much lower, as just 44% approve.

47% of these rural voters support in-person, 5-day-a-week school this fall, with a sharp partisan

divide on the issue. Just 4% of Republicans support “online only,” while only 17% of Democrats

endorse full-week, in-person classes.

For further information, contact:

Dr. Rachel Bitecofer, Niskanen Center: rbitecofer@niskanencenter.org,541-729-9824 @RachelBitecofer John Couvillon, JMC Analytics and Polling : john@winwithjmc.com, 225-802-9756, @WinWithJMC

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Analysis and Commentary We often hear there are “two Americas”-- one “Red,” one “Blue.” This is increasingly described in regional terms, a division of the country into red and blue states, and urban/suburban versus rural areas. Thus, the survey presented here, which focuses exclusively on three completely rural, and politically “non-competitive” congressional districts is a rarity. Focusing only on rural Pennsylvania, one would think the survey avoids these great divides. It does not. Rural Americans, like all Americans, display strong evidence of polarization and hyperpartisanship, affecting their views on issues such as the U.S. Postal Service, mail-in voting and responses to the Covid-19 pandemic. Rural America is rarely covered in stand-alone political surveys, but issues with the United States Postal Service in the headlines and its heightened importance to the conduct of the 2020 election cycle due the pandemic at the same time its budget is being pressured is of such paramount importance to the economic and material health and well-being of rural America, that an anonymous donor funded this research project to help bring more attention to the issue. We thank them for their contribution to this important public discussion. The changes to USPS services that have been implemented under President Trump’s new Postmaster General appointee Louis DeJoy’s brief tenure have been well documented by the press, but it is important to note that the field days for this survey, August 13 and 14, pre-date the most recent coverage of removed mail-sorting equipment and postal bins. Because free and fair elections are the absolute cornerstone of democracy, actions that undermine them, especially actions that undermine them at mass scale and come from the executive branch of the federal government to serve the reelection campaign of an incumbent, can and must be responded to with frank, earnest assessment to empower those positioned to report on them and inform the public. A thing to keep in mind as you examine this data, especially the graphs that compare attitudes between Republicans and Democrats, is that the Republican Party developed and successfully deployed in multiple election cycles, including the 2018 midterms, a strikingly effective base turnout operation across the swing states that relies heavily on absentee voting (vote by mail). As you examine the data in this poll, with responses from 686 “likely voters” from three exclusively rural Pennsylvania congressional districts (12th, 13th, and 15th,) keep in mind that this is a highly atypical survey. Its most important “atypical” feature is its partisan balance, because in the polarized era, nothing exerts more influence on public opinion or preference than partisanship. Thus, the fact that 57% of likely voters in these rural districts are less likely to support a candidate that seeks to defund or privatize the Post Office is equivalent to a much higher proportion in a swing district, because 56% of the respondents in this survey are Republicans. In a typical voter survey, Republicans would be 30% or less and a substantial share of Independents would be included. The results presented here tell a clear story. Even with an overwhelming Republican Party advantage in these three districts, 57% of these rural voters indicate that a

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candidate who supports privatizing or cutting funds for USPS is less likely to get their vote. While a majority of Democrats in the survey took that view, Republican voters were split evenly. This suggests that Republican candidates everywhere, but especially in rural areas, would be vulnerable to attacks on this issue.

The structure of the analysis presented here is designed to impress upon its audience the power of partisanship on public opinion, to demonstrate how partisanship constrains and defines voter attitudes on even the most practical issues. Political scientist Lilliana Mason defines party identification as a “social identity” to be defended and protected. As shown by the graphs that contrast the views of Republicans and Democrats, or of voters who support Donald Trump’s pandemic response and voters who don’t, party identification not only exerts influence on voters’ assessments of the controversy surrounding the U.S. Post Office, it even affects their perceptions of disruptions of that service. It is critical for pollsters and the media outlets that cover polls to consider the influence partisanship exerts on respondents’ answers to survey questions. This survey report is intentionally constructed to show you why. One final note: Because Pennsylvania is a “closed” primary state that requires voters to register by party in order to participate in primary elections such as the presidential primaries earlier this year, the voter file from which our sample was drawn produces an astonishingly low number of “Independent” voters or voters who otherwise leave themselves unaligned from one of the two major parties. So low, in fact, that including Independents in the graphs would have been distortive. The graphs are based on responses from 390 Republicans and 230 Democrats, for a combined n of 620. We should also note that there have been no public polls of purely rural, non-competitive congressional districts from which to model this survey. To estimate weights for gender, education, and age, we used Current Population Survey (CPS) and Census Bureau data estimates for the three districts (CDs 12, 13, and 15), which were similar to each other in terms of geography and racial composition. Because the sample was drawn from the voter file and respondents were screened out if they said they were not planning to vote in the 2020 election, respondents should be referred to as “likely voters.”

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Field Dates: August 13-August 14, 2020

686 Likely Voters

Pennsylvania CDs 12, 13, 15

Overall Toplines Margin of Error = +/- 3.7%

Q2. How dependent are you on the postal office as a means of communicating with the outside

world?

1.Very dependent 26

2. Somewhat dependent 27

3. Not too dependent 24

4. Not dependent at all 21

9. DK/Refused, No Response 2

Ma

le

Fem

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Rep

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Dem

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at

18

-34

35

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55

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No

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Very dependent 23 29 17 43 18 18 28 39 26 24

Somewhat dependent 22 32 27 29 31 23 32 25 27 25

Not too dependent 25 22 25 18 32 27 17 17 23 26

Not dependent at all 27 14 28 6 18 29 14 14 20 23

DK/Refused, No Reponse 2 3 2 4 0 3 5 5 3 2

Q3. Because of the pandemic, how likely are you to vote absentee or by mail instead of in person

in the 2020 November election?

1. Very likely 28

2. Somewhat likely 8

3. Not too likely 11

4. Not likely at all 52

9. DK/Refused, No Response 3

Ma

le

Fem

ale

Rep

ub

lican

Dem

ocr

at

18

-34

35

-54

55

-64

65

+

No

n-C

olleg

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Co

llege

Very likely 26 30 13 53 39 16 22 37 28 30

Somewhat likely 7 8 5 10 7 4 6 12 7 10

Not too likely 10 11 10 11 10 12 7 11 10 11

Not likely at all 54 49 68 26 44 67 60 36 53 48

DK/Refused, No Reponse 3 0 4 1 0 2 5 3 3 1

5

Q4. Have you recently noticed any change in your mail delivery services?

1. Yes 24

2. No 72

9. DK/Refused, No Response 4

Ma

le

Fem

ale

Rep

ub

lican

Dem

ocr

at

18

-34

35

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55

-64

65

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No

n-C

olleg

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Co

llege

Yes 25 4 18 34 31 19 4 21 24 27

No 71 24 76 64 69 76 21 76 72 71

DK/Refused, No Reponse 4 72 6 1 0 4 76 4 4 2

Q5. In July President Trump’s new appointee to run the US Postal Service made changes that

eliminated overtime hours and established new rules on how mail should be delivered, slowing

down delivery times. How concerned are you about these changes?

1.Very concerned 35

2.Somewhat concerned 16

3.Not concerned at all 46

9. DK/Refused, No Response 2

Ma

le

Fem

ale

Rep

ub

lican

Dem

ocr

at

18

-34

35

-54

55

-64

65

+

No

n-C

olleg

e

Co

llege

Very concerned 30 40 16 71 44 23 2 4 34 42

Somewhat concerned 12 21 18 10 15 15 36 40 18 9

Not concerned at all 56 37 63 17 41 59 12 23 46 47

DK/Refused, No Reponse 2 3 3 1 1 3 51 34 2 2

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Q6. The post office is under the direction of and is funded by the government. If a candidate for

office supported reducing the budget for the post office or privatizing it like FedEx, would that

make you more or less likely to vote for that candidate?

1. More 31

2. Less 57

9. DK/Refused, No Response 12

Ma

le

Fem

ale

Rep

ub

lican

Dem

ocr

at

18

-34

35

-54

55

-64

65

+

No

n-C

olleg

e

Co

llege

More 38 24 42 14 30 42 29 22 29 39

Less 53 60 43 79 64 43 61 62 58 52

DK/Refused, No Reponse 8 16 15 7 6 14 11 17 13 9

Q7. Do you approve or disapprove of how President Donald Trump has dealt with the

coronavirus pandemic?

1. Strongly approve 44

2. Approve 18

3. Disapprove 7

4. Strongly Disapprove 30

9. DK/Refused, No Response 1

Ma

le

Fem

ale

Rep

ub

lican

Dem

ocr

at

18

-34

35

-54

55

-64

65

+

No

n-C

olleg

e

Co

llege

Strongly approve 50 39 65 14 33 52 51 40 46 38

Approve 18 18 23 8 15 19 20 18 18 16

Disapprove 7 6 5 7 7 6 2 10 7 6

Strongly Approve 25 36 6 70 45 22 26 31 28 40

DK/Refused, No Reponse 0 1 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 0

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Q8. Do you approve or disapprove of how your statewide elected officials have dealt with the

coronavirus pandemic?

1. Strongly approve 16

2. Approve 28

3. Disapprove 21

4. Strongly Disapprove 33

9. DK/Refused, No Response 3

Ma

le

Fem

ale

Rep

ub

lican

Dem

ocr

at

18

-34

35

-54

55

-64

65

+

No

n-C

olleg

e

Co

llege

Strongly Approve 13 19 12 24 1 11 17 24 16 18

Approve 27 30 17 45 12 17 23 40 28 31

Disapprove 20 22 22 16 35 19 23 18 22 15

Strongly Approve 38 27 46 14 24 49 35 17 32 36

DK/Refused, No Reponse 3 2 3 1 28 4 2 2 3 0

Q9. Given the coronavirus pandemic, how do you think schools should address the issue of

reopening for the fall?

1. You favor a normal reopening with classes 5 days a week 47

2. You favor changing to 100% online learning 16

3. You favor a combination of some online learning and some classroom time 35

9. DK/Refused, No Response 2

Ma

le

Fem

ale

Rep

ub

lican

Dem

ocr

at

18

-34

35

-54

55

-64

65

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No

n-C

olleg

e

Co

llege

Reopen-5 days 54 40 66 17 44 63 45 33 49 36

100% online 13 18 4 34 23 10 16 15 14 23

Combo 31 39 28 48 33 25 36 48 35 38

DK/Refused, No Reponse 2 3 2 2 0 2 3 4 3 2

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9

10

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Demographics

EDUC:

Non-College Educated 80

College Educated 20

RACE:

White 84

Black or African American 1

Other 15

AGE:

18-34 23

35-54 30

55-64 20

65+ 27

PARTYID:

Republican 56

Democrat 34

Independent/Unaffiliated/Third party 9

SEX (interviewer coded):

Male 49

Female 51

DISTRICT:

CD12 30

CD13 36

CD15 34

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How the survey was conducted:

The data for this poll was collected on behalf of the Niskanen Center by JMC Analytics using the following

methodology:

For this poll, a sample of likely households was chosen from the population registered to vote in either the 12th, 13th,

or 15th Congressional Districts of Pennsylvania for a “hybrid” automated (for landlines)/text (for cell phones) poll,

where 63% of the phone numbers were landlines and 37% of the phone numbers were cell phones. There were 686

completed responses to 12 poll questions.

The survey was conducted August 13-14. The margin of error, with a 95% confidence interval, was 3.7%. The party

registration of respondents was 56% Republican, 34% Democratic, and 9% Independent. The geographic breakdown

of the respondents was as follows: 30% from the 12th Congressional District, 36% from the 13th Congressional

District, and 34% from the 15th Congressional District (The explanation of the boundaries of these regions is

graphically depicted in Exhibit A at the end of the poll analysis).

(Each region consists of either the 12th Congressional District (in green), the 13th Congressional District (in

purple), or the 15th Congressional District (in blue))