portfolio builder update
TRANSCRIPT
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www.GrabtheCashandDash.com
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Jay A. Leavitt, PhD
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Portfolio Builder was developed from years of experience Portfolio Builder was developed from years of experience trading market timer systems. The Portfolio Builder trading market timer systems. The Portfolio Builder timer generates signals of three market conditions: timer generates signals of three market conditions:
Bull, Bear and Neutral.Bull, Bear and Neutral.
Central to the Portfolio Builder system is a Central to the Portfolio Builder system is a Grab the Cash and DashGrab the Cash and Dash
approach for capturing profits and minimizing exposure approach for capturing profits and minimizing exposure to risk.to risk.
Portfolio Builder also has an integrated strategy for Portfolio Builder also has an integrated strategy for trading in Neutral markets.trading in Neutral markets.
The Portfolio Builder system employs diverse market The Portfolio Builder system employs diverse market index ETFs as a strategic component of its trading index ETFs as a strategic component of its trading system.system.
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ETF MachineMarket Timer
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S&P 500 Daily PricesS&P 500 Weekly
PricesMarketSentiment
The timer tells if the market will be Bullish, Bearish or indecisive.
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Market Timer [Bull, Bear, Neutral]Market Timer [Bull, Bear, Neutral] Conservative EntriesConservative Entries High probability of SuccessHigh probability of Success
Quick ExitsQuick Exits Exits based on profitsExits based on profits Exits based on SentimentExits based on Sentiment
Exits use sound Money ManagementExits use sound Money Management Grab the Cash and DashGrab the Cash and Dash
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ETF MachineETF Machine
The ETFs machine has 3 inputs, the timer [Bull, Bear or ?], the ETF’s data and market sentiment. It decides if an entry is recommended, whether profits should be skimmed or if the position should be closed.
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ETFs from Five SectorsETFs from Five Sectors Big CapsBig Caps Mid CapsMid Caps Small CapsSmall Caps Emerging MarketsEmerging Markets EnergyEnergy
Comprehensive ETF SelectionsComprehensive ETF Selections Directional choice of ETF in directional marketsDirectional choice of ETF in directional markets Bi-directional choice of ETF in Neutral marketsBi-directional choice of ETF in Neutral markets
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GoalsGoals Capture profits aggressively as they Capture profits aggressively as they
are generatedare generated Reduce the funds at risk while Reduce the funds at risk while
maintaining a profit potentialmaintaining a profit potential Address the increasing risk of a pull-Address the increasing risk of a pull-
back the more the market risesback the more the market rises
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Never add to a Never add to a positionposition
Skim profits as they Skim profits as they developdevelop
Close position based Close position based on profit draw-downon profit draw-down
Close position if Close position if Market Timer changesMarket Timer changes
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SYMBOL DESC.LEVER-
AGE % WINSPROFIT FACTOR
LARGEST LOSING TRADE
FIRST TRADE
LAST TRADE YEARS NET PROFIT
ANNUAL RATE OF RETURN
Bullish ETFs
BGU Big Caps 3X 83.33 5.76 4.38% 5/1/09 12/13/11 2.62 $55,084 21.05%
ERX Energy 3X 74.07 3.20 14.75% 4/4/08 12/2/11 3.66 $92,091 25.16%
TNA Small Caps 3X 68.75 4.18 6.60% 12/18/08 12/7/11 2.97 $67,055 22.59%
EDCEmerging Markets 3X 80.00 7.98 18.20% 1/6/09 10/14/11 2.77 $213,191 77.02%
MWJ Mid Caps 3X 80.00 36.58 1.34% 4/4/08 10/26/11 3.56 $76,981 21.63%Bearish ETFs
BGZ Big Caps -3X 76.92 6.91 7.98% 1/4/08 11/29/11 3.90 $149,410 38.30%
ERY Energy -3X 69.23 3.78 17.87% 1/7/08 11/29/11 3.89 $419,433 107.73%
TZA Small Caps -3X 65.22 2.38 10.92% 1/3/08 11/29/11 3.90 $287,773 73.71%
EDZEmerging Markets -3X 60.00 3.35 7.32% 2/27/09 8/29/11 2.50 $36,660 14.67%
MWN Mid Caps -3X 55.56 2.49 12.36% 1/3/08 11/29/11 3.90 $98,094 25.13%
Note: These ETFs introduced in 2009. Data for prior years derived from their indices.
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The Portfolio Builder strategy determines The Portfolio Builder strategy determines which ETF to choosewhich ETF to choose
Bullish ETFs are selected when the market is Bullish ETFs are selected when the market is going Up and Bearish ETFs when the market is going Up and Bearish ETFs when the market is going Down.going Down.
Trading both Bullish and Bearish ETFs results Trading both Bullish and Bearish ETFs results in profits exponentially greater than only in profits exponentially greater than only trading one or the othertrading one or the other
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ETF PairETF Pair TradesTrades Time in MarketTime in MarketAverage # Days in Average # Days in
TradeTrade
BGU / BGZ 25 12.16% 6.20
EDC / EDZ 25 13.17% 5.88
ERX / ERY 40 13.14% 5.93
TNA / TZA 39 17.30% 5.97
MWJ /MWN 33 9.80% 6.23
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Annual Rate of ReturnAnnual Rate of Return142.83%142.83%
Maximum Draw-DownMaximum Draw-Down8.32%8.32%
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Annual returns > 200%, 100%, 50% Are Unrealistic
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Especially the Grab the Cash and Dash Money Management
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Each time there is a trade signal for the next day, Each time there is a trade signal for the next day, notification is sent out in our newsletter notification is sent out in our newsletter between the close and before the following between the close and before the following open.open.
The notice contains instructions such as ETF The notice contains instructions such as ETF symbol, entry price, percent of holding to skim symbol, entry price, percent of holding to skim or close condition.or close condition.
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