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ANALYSIS

© Copyright 2020 Cirium of 4

Into the Abyss: As airlines fight to survive, the unknown awaits lessorsSophie Segal, global finance editorMuch has changed between the first quarter of 2020 and the final quarter of 2019. Last year's story was the grounding of the Boeing Max 737 fleet – something felt by only some. This year, there has been an industry-wide demand shock to the system due to the coronavirus. IATA director Alexandre de Juniac calls it an "apocalypse now" scenario.

Carriers around the world are battling for survival, with load factors deeply depressed and capacity slashed as they wade through the violent waters the health crisis has unleashed.

As the coronavirus devastates the airline industry and traffic contracts dramatically, fleet growth is a liability.

Capacity is down by 90% at certain carriers, and for an unpredictable duration. In fact, more than half of the passenger fleet is grounded due to the Covid-19 pandemic, and analysts are starting to suggest that growth could take years to recover.

Some small carriers have shuttered while several others have applied for bankruptcy protection. But to date, there have been no large airline collapses. Even as some carriers receive state relief, it's only a matter of time before aid can no longer replace revenue.

Amid a crisis it is hard to predict just how bad things are or could get, but it is likely that there will be changes to these rankings as the health situation unfolds.

Lessors have spent years building up their liquidity and rainy-day funds. But this is not a rainy day. This is a deluge. As financial providers to their customers, they will shoulder the burden of the crisis the industry faces despite their "hell-or-highwater" leases. And, these rankings will likely shift.

Readers should note that Cirium counts owned as well as managed aircraft in this ranking which means that companies that do not take ownership risk on all assets they manage can still rank highly in the tables.

Cirium is committed to ensuring that it has the most accurate aviation data in the industry and prides itself on sourcing data from the most reliable domains.At present we have many of the world’s leading lessors providing regular fleet portfolio updates with the information in the table below.

If you would like to update your firm’s information or see how we are currently representing your data, please contact our Senior Data Analyst-Lessors and Finance, Ashley Wileman, who will gladly assist.

Portfolio Tracker: Q1 2020M O N I T O R I N G L E S S O R F L E E T A C T I V I T Y

RANK CHANGE YOY ESTD. PORTFOLIO VALUE FLEET SIZE

AerCap $32.1bn 1,016(-) Dublin, Ireland -3% YOY -12 YOY

ESTD. PORTFOLIO VALUE FLEET SIZE

2. $22.0bn 1,134-6% YOY -70 YOY


$19.8bn 508-5% YOY -5 YOY


$19.1bn 5352% YOY -16 YOY


$16.5bn 383

(-)

(-)

(-)

(+2) Los Angeles, USA 10% YOY +36 YOY

GECAS Norwalk, USA

3. BBAM

4. Avolon

Air Lease Corporation

San Francisco, USA

Dublin, Ireland

1.

5.

RANK CHANGE YOY ESTD. PORTFOLIO VALUE FLEET SIZE

$15.5bn 415 2% YOY +32 YOY


$14.8bn 364 4% YOY +28 YOY


$14.5bn 410-7% YOY -2 YOY


$9.5bn 351-5% YOY -3 YOY


3222% YOY +10 YOY


2351% YOY +23 YOY


232-5% YOY -2 YOY


1744% YOY +13 YOY


219-2% YOY +6 YOY


$6.5bn 1813% YOY +11 YOY


$5.6bn 282-11% YOY +7 YOY


$5.4bn 488-9% YOY +12 YOY


$4.5bn 140-1% YOY


140YOY YOY


$3.9bn 106

6. ICBC Leasing(-) Beijing, China

7. BOC Aviation(+1) Singapore, Singapore

8. SMBC Aviation Capital(-3) Dublin, Ireland

9. DAE Capital(-) Dubai, United Arab Emirates

10.

(-)

11. Shanghai, China

12.

BoComm Leasing

(-) Shenzhen, China

13.

14.

Jackson Square Aviation

15.

16.

17. (-)

18.

19.

20.

-3% YOY +10 YOY

CAPITAL

Aviation Capital GroupNewport Beach, (-)

(-)

(+1)

(-1)

()

(+2)


CDB Aviation

San Francisco, USA

ORIX Aviation Booterstown, Ireland

GoshawkDublin, Ireland

AircastleStamford, USA

Nordic Aviation CapitalLimerick, Ireland

CALCHong Kong SAR

AMCK Aviation

+2 YOY(-)

(-1)

(-1)

$9.3bn

$8.2bn

$7.4bn

$6.6bn

$6.5bn

$4.0bn

CMB Financial Leasing

Dublin, Ireland

Shanghai, China

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CI rt I UM Portfolio Tracker

Top lessors by fleet value

Rank change L,e.ss,or

Definitions: Ranking: Based on the top operating lease companies ranked by the value of their owned and/or managed fleets on 31 March 2020. Rankingchanges based on previous year. Change: The change figures are based on fleets/values from Cirium’s Fleets Analyzer and Ascend by Cirium Values databases forMarch 2020 vs the previous year. Operating lessors: Lessors are defined as those with an active operating lease business and a substantial investment in fleet.Fleets can include aircraft on both operating lease and finance lease. Companies that are solely or predominantly financiers have been excluded.Fleets and Values: Represents a snapshot of Western-built jets, Western-built turboprops and a selection of Eastern-built jet fleets, including stored aircraft, andthe fleet specifically excludes any future committed sale-and-leasebacks that have not yet been executed. Fleet Values reflect Half-Life Current Market Values ofthe respective aircraft. Note the composition of fleets is constantly changing.

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