positioning the abn amro wholesale banking franchise
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Positioning the ABN AMRO wholesale banking franchise. Piero Overmars Member of the Managing Board Head of Global Markets Credit Suisse Investment Banking and Diversified Financials Conference 2006 London, 1 March 2006. Overview. Significantly improved performance by wholesale in 2005 - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Positioning the ABN AMRO wholesale banking franchise
Piero OvermarsMember of the Managing BoardHead of Global Markets
Credit Suisse Investment Banking and Diversified Financials Conference 2006London, 1 March 2006
2
Overview
Significantly improved performance by wholesale in 2005
Drivers of the performance uplift in 2005
Opening up wholesale will continue the positive momentum
Further improvement – our commitments
Future drivers of growth
A significantly improved performance in 2005
4
Commercial Banking
Fixed Income, Futures, FX
Equities and Inv. Banking
Other
Total operating income
Operating costs
Operating result
Net operating profit
RWAs (EUR bln)
Efficiency ratio
1,833
1,351
1,382
136
4,702
4,402
300
270
72.9
93.6%
1,976
1,822
1,456
87
5,341
4,699
642
705
77.0
88.0%
2004 2005
We have delivered an uplift over 2004
In 2005 WCS delivered a material improvement in revenue, operating result and consequently Efficiency Ratio vs 2004
However, an Efficiency Ratio of 88% still leaves the wholesale franchise vulnerable to cyclical movements
Note: IFRS basis. Excludes Private Equity. All 2004 figures are as per relevant press releases, excluding the 2004 restructuring charge. Not corrected for disposals and exceptionals. See Appendix for detailed breakdown of product categories
7.8%
34.9%
5.4%
-36.0%
13.6%
6.7%
114.0%
161.1%
5.6%
∆
5
Improvements in 2004 loss-making product areas
2005 delivered an operating result uplift and an efficiency ratio improvement in loss-making product areas
Reduced dependency on Treasury and Lending - revenue shift towards Fixed Income & Treasury and Equities & Equity-related
In the first year of Transaction Banking as a cross-SBU product group we succeeded in moving that product area close to profitability
0
50
100
150 2004
2005
Efficiency Ratio 2004 and 2005 (%)
Lendin
g
Transa
ctio
n Ban
king
Fixed
Inco
me
& Tre
asury
Equities
& E
quity-re
late
d
Drivers of performance uplift
7
Delivering the wholesale agenda
Growth initiatives
Derivatives Step Change
programme
Network Leverage
Investment Banking
Agenda
Asia Strategy
Trading
Rationalisation of resources
Capital
Services
Front Office
Group synergies
Transaction Banking
Consumer & Commercial
Client segments
- Empresas
- LaSalle
- BU Netherlands
Private Investor Product
(PIP)
8
Case Study: Derivatives Step Change
We have invested in derivatives product development, sales, marketing and coverage:
– New hires and upskilling our current staff
– Spreading derivatives literacy across WCS and related support functions
Formed Derivatives Sales & Solutions Group to drive sales capability
Upgraded risk processes and improved IT infrastructure
Co-located corporate derivatives in Equity Capital Markets
Awarded 2005 “House of the Year” for credit derivatives by Structured Products
Awarded 2005 “Best Bank” for Structured FX products by FX Week
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2004 2005
Revenues IFRS reserves
Structured Derivatives development (EUR mln)
9
Case study:Restricting business-as-usual costs
Since 2001, we have reduced our business-as-usual services and other support costs to free up investment in front office staff and services investment
We announced a restructuring in December 2004 aimed at exiting 1,100 FTEs, which will be completed in Q1 2006
This has freed up resources for investment in Derivatives, in IT to upgrade trading infrastructure (EUR 95 mln), and in mandatory compliance activities (Basel II, Sarbanes Oxley, etc., EUR 75 mln)
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Services BAU Other support
Services investment Front office
WCS cost development (EUR mln)
10
Case Study:Driving Group synergies During 2005 in the home markets, we have:
– Merged coverage of WCS and BU Netherlands commercial clients
– Integrated WCS and LaSalle corporate distribution and enhanced the LaSalle sales force with derivatives hires and training
– Driven up derivatives revenues from BU Brazil clients by over 50%
Our Private Investor Product group has also worked closely with the other Group SBUs to deliver a strong year on year improvement
Although from a low base, 2005 demonstrated the potential of our strategy to cascade the innovation from Global Clients to our chosen sweet spot clients
0
25
50
75
100
2004 2005E
+23%
0
20
40
BUNetherlands
PrivateClients
New GrowthMarkets
Sales of WCS FI and FX derivatives products to non-WCS clients 2004-5% (EUR mln)
Sales of WCS Private Investor products to C&CC clients 2004-5 (EUR mln)
Opening up wholesale will continue the positive momentum
12
Unbundling will deliver continued performance improvement
In 2005 we have delivered a significant turnaround in WCS performance
Opening up WCS to the Group will result in greater leverage of wholesale banking products across a wider set of clients
The unbundling will contribute to a continued improvement in the ER
Arm’s length interaction between Global Markets and the Client Units will increase the transparency of the product economics
– Clarity on which products we can consistently deliver at the right price and the right quality to our sweet spot clients
– For products that do not meet this standard, we will pursue alternative solutions, potentially including exit, downsizing, joint ventures, in-sourcing and others as necessary
13
We have unbundled WCS to deliver on the Group’s sweet spot strategy
Global Clients
550 former WCS clients with most demanding needs, inspiring product innovation
Regional Client Units
Serving the former WCS’ commercial clients better and more efficiently
Global Markets
Product platform, developing and delivering products for all the Group’s clients
Scale/Feeder Scale/Feeder
Product InnovationProduct Innovation TopPrivateClients
MNCs
Mass Retail Small Business
Consumer Commercial
SweetSpot
Private ClientMass Affluent
Mid-Market /FIs
14
New organisation: playing systematically to our strengths
Global Markets
Europe North America
LatinAmerica
Asia Private Clients
Global Clients
NL
Asset Management
Group Functions
Services
Transaction Banking
Consumer Client Segment
Commercial Client Segment
Local Products
Local Products
Local Products
Local Products
Local Products
Local Products
M&A ECM
Global Markets includes fixed income (trading and capital markets), FX, treasury, equity, structured lending and derivatives
In line with our client-led strategy, Global Markets’ activities will be reported under Client Units and Group Functions
Further improvement – our commitments
16
What are we doing in 2006?
Following through on our revenue growth initiatives, Derivatives, Equities and Fixed Income, facilitated by the new organisation
– Using the local cross-sell expertise of the Regional Client Units to drive up the penetration of the Global Markets products to all the Group’s clients
– Continuing the improvements we have made with Global Clients through more focused coverage
– Bringing capital markets solutions to our clients and increasing our capital velocity
Following through on cost reduction initiatives in the new Services organisation
– Delivering further run rate savings through continued outsourcing, procurement and real estate programmes
– To fund investment in growth initiatives, IT infrastructure, compliance and compensation for our critical talent
17
Commitments
Capital constraint and minimum returns for Global Clients
– RWAs on average less than 10% of Group total by end 2006 and beyond, with a return above our 10.5% assumed cost of equity
Improved efficiency ratio for Global Markets
– Improving by at least 5 percentage points in 2006, and below 80% by end 2008
Improved efficiency ratio for commercial clients in 2006
– To be achieved through revenue uplift and tight cost control in the Regional Client Units (targets to be confirmed with Q1 2006 results)
Future drivers of growth
19
Rates markets main themes
Global liquidity conditions remain expansive, despite central banks pushing rates higher in 2006
Increasing risk appetite – investor demand for new asset classes and products within asset classes
Japan - BoJ expected to eliminate quantitative easing and raise rates in 2006
Pension fund reform/move to ALM frameworks gathering momentum
Observations
We have focused on being an idea driven niche unit, particularly in ALM area
By putting an increasing focus on trading, ABN AMRO has been able to combat margin compression
ABN AMRO has built new JPY business to take advantage of our perceived growing importance of the Yen market over the next years
Our response
Short Term
20
Credit markets main themes
Credit fundamentals remain supportive for the continuation of tight spreads, but M&A activity will continue to cause spread shocks
Demand for credit product remains healthy albeit selective (eg structured credit due to diversification benefits)
Yield hunting has supported demand for HY and EM assets
Increased liquidity - a result of growing influence of CDS indices and electronic trading
Observations
Focus on leveraging electronic
platforms, freeing traders to offer
integrated credit trading products
Expanded our innovative product
set through a newly created
Structured Finance Trading team
Expanded our financial sponsor
coverage’s Leveraged Finance
and High Yield activity
Expansion of Structured Capital
platforms with strong distribution
focus covering Inf. Cap. / SF and
Real Estate Finance
Our response
Short Term
21
Emerging markets main themes
Increased corporate issuance as sovereigns are running surpluses on budget and current accounts
Application of credit derivatives to create synthetic assets
Hedge funds to play an increased role in project and principal financing
Growth of asset securitisation, CDO and CLO in view of Basel II
Growing investor acceptance and appetite for local market assets
Observations
Integrated our local markets currency
product sales and trading to provide
a one-stop shop for clients
We are also expanding the product
offer (e.g. EM asset securitisation,
CLO/CDO), especially focusing on
Access products leveraging the
Bank’s network
As Emerging Market clients’ needs
become increasingly sophisticated,
ABN AMRO offers them tailored
solutions across equities, fixed
income and FX
Our response
Short Term
22
Foreign exchange marketsmain themes
The slump in the ISK has rung alarm bells in the FX market about ‘carry trades’ but there is no sign of lasting knock-on effects
Risks could emerge from the huge volume of speculative open interest
Implied volume remains very low in most G10 FX , with market focusing on other FX pairs to generate risk
Continued margin compression driving business to e-platforms
Observations
We have automated a greater volume of business, focusing on the development of more sophisticated structured FX solutions eg. algorithmic trading, FX overlay
We have increased our risk appetite through smarter proprietary trading
Hubbing our trading desks has improved efficiency whilst bringing clients 24 hour trading in over 150 currencies
Our response
Short Term
23
Equity markets main themes
Equity Markets to remain robust (client activity levels will continue at these high levels)
Increase in market volatility and continuation of recent high levels of M&A transactions
Continued growth of hedge funds and the range of their activities
Unbundling to go from a UK regulatory requirement to a global market standard
Observations
Seeing the benefits from our integrated equity platform, upgrading trading capabilities, increased automation and new equity derivative products
Attracting sustainable Hedge Fund business, we benefit from higher commissions of the broader product range Hedge Funds demand
We have developed and marketed innovative and commercially focused research that has received many market accolades
Our response
Short Term
24
Derivatives markets main themes
Rise in equity markets has increased demand for structured equity products
High commodity prices driving demand for commodity hedging as well as investment products
Tighter credit spreads encouraging investors to leverage credit exposure – new products such as Leveraged Super Senior and Forward CDOs
Managing wealth for an ageing population leads to demand for a variety of new products with longevity risk and inflation sensitivity
Observations Structured Equity is for us an
established strength
In 2004 and 2005 we established a commodity derivatives capability which is now fully functioning
We are at the leading edge with structured credit derivatives
We have developed both inflation and insurance risk management capability and an initial series of transactions has been completed
Our response
Short Term
25
Continuing industry growth drivers
Description Implications
Commoditis-ation
Growth of derivatives
New client segments
Product lifecycles dramatically shortened, limiting the window in which to capture attractive returns
Premium on innovation, product pipeline and rapid industrialisation of commoditising business lines
Proliferation of products (OTC, structured, exchange traded) and end-users (retail, institutional, corporates)
Scope and depth of product set and distribution channels significantly increased
Investor/client groups that did not exist five years ago are now the ‘must serve’ customer segments (mid-market, FI, Public Sector, EM commercial clients…)
Effective client segmentation and account planning across products and geographies
Building capabilities to capture high growth opportunities
Continuing Trends
26
Commoditisation – cash equity example
0
5
10
15
20
25
1998
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
e
2006
e
Basis Points
Year
Europe
US
Source: Merrill Lynch
A commoditising product - Equity commissions, US vs Europe
Cash equity commissions have declined rapidly as cheaper execution channels have emerged and buyer power increased
Unbundling looks set to accelerate this process
Regulatory concern that fund managers provide no transparency on brokerage services purchased with client funds
Institutional investors have offered to separate the purchasing of execution and content. Commission Sharing Agreements (CSA) have emerged as the preferred method of separation
– Fund managers agree to focus almost all
execution with a small number of brokers
– These brokers agree to pay a pre-agreed
percentage of that commission to other
brokers who have provided the fund
manager with non-execution services
Value chain unbundling - the story so far
Continuing Trends
27
Why value chain unbundling is attractive for ABN AMRO
Implications of cash equity unbundling
In a pre-unbundled world fund managers demanded full ‘waterfront’ research services
This has disadvantaged mid-tier players who had to support the same large cost base of the market leaders with lower revenues, whilst only being rewarded for research in sectors where they were strong
CSAs have allowed brokers to scale the research product to where they have a competitive advantage, without incurring high de minimus cost of ‘waterfront’ coverage
With CSAs, excellence in execution is critical
– Firms on the execution lists will see growth in market share
– Firms who are excluded will see a rapid contraction
ABN AMRO has been an early adopter and advocate of unbundling
An unbundled business model is attractive for ABN AMRO
Seeing the benefits from our integrated equity platform and focus on execution
Every major client we have approached who is setting up CSAs has told us we will be on their list
Continuing Trends
28
Derivatives – developing and supporting client demand
Overall growth in derivatives revenues reflects the emergence, and rapid acceptance, of new asset classes and continued innovation, particularly in higher margin structured products
We are committed to further developing our derivatives offer across the client spectrum
– Serving our Global Clients and institutional investors with the innovative derivatives solutions they demand e.g. dedicated, cross asset class, Derivative Sales and Solution Group
– Using our local intimacy to bring these products to sweet spot client segment – both mid-market and FIs. Evolution and replication of in-house best practice to new clients e.g. PIP to commercial
0.6 0.9 1.6 2.2 2.73.8
5.4
8.4
12.4
1H 01 2H 01 1H02 2H 02 1H 03 2H 03 1H 04 2H 04 1H 05
105% p.a.
128% p.a.
Source: ISDA
Credit Derivatives – notional outstandings, 2001 – 1H 2005, US$Trn
Continuing Trends
29
Serving new client segments
Source: ABN AMRO Equity Research, Dealogic Loanware
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Global financial sponsor-backed acquisition volume, $bn
Financial sponsors were the key client driver behind the upturn in M&A over 2005
– Financial sponsor backed acquisitions,
globally, were valued at $346bn in 2005, a
40% increase on 2004
– Leveraged loans have become the most
important source of funding
Global Markets is well placed to serve this segment through the sweet spot strategy
– Well placed as it fits with our longstanding
credit structuring & distribution expertise
– Financial sponsor backed M&A volume
typically focused on the mid market
– Network clear competitive advantage in
originating and financing deals
0
50
100
150
200
250
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Global financial sponsor-backed loan financing volume, $bn
Continuing Trends
30
Conclusions
WCS improved significantly in 2005 on the back of growth initiatives, resource rationalisation and Group synergies
– Efficiency ratio improved from 93.6% to 88.0%, but will improve further
Opening up WCS to the Group – WCS unbundled into three groups; Global Markets, Global Clients and Regional Client Units
– Specific performance commitments made for each
We are well positioned to drive further growth in 2006 and beyond by aligning ourselves with identified market trends
– In particular : emerging markets; new client segments; leveraged finance; equity unbundling; ALM and derivative product growth
Appendix:
Definition product groups
32
Definition of the product groups
Commercial Banking : Loan products and all transaction banking services.
In the presentation, this is split between ‘Lending’ and ‘Transaction Banking’
Fixed Income, Futures and FX (FIFF) : Fixed income trading activities,
structured derivatives, futures and foreign exchange. In the presentation, all
of this except futures is included in ‘Fixed Income & Treasury’; futures is
included in ‘Other’
Equities & Investment Banking : Cash equities, equity derivatives, debt and
equity origination and corporate finance. In the presentation, all of this
except debt origination is shown as ‘Equity & Equity-related’; debt origination
is included in ‘Fixed Income & Treasury’
33
Cautionary Statement regarding Forward-Looking Statements This announcement contains forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements are statements that are not historical facts, including statements about our beliefs and expectations. Any statement in this document that expresses or implies our intentions, beliefs, expectations, forecasts, estimates or predictions (and the assumptions underlying them) is a forward-looking statement. These statements are based on plans, estimates and projections, as they are currently available to the management of ABN AMRO Holding N.V.. Forward-looking statements therefore speak only as of the date they are made, and we take no obligation to update publicly any of them in light of new information or future events. Forward-looking statements involve inherent risks and uncertainties. A number of important factors could therefore cause actual future results to differ materially from those expressed or implied in any forward-looking statement. Such factors include, without limitation, the conditions in the financial markets in Europe, the United States, Brazil and elsewhere from which we derive a substantial portion of our trading revenues; potential defaults of borrowers or trading counterparties; the implementation of our restructuring including the envisaged reduction in headcount; the reliability of our risk management policies, procedures and methods; changes resulting from the acquisition of Banca Antonveneta, including the risks associated with its business, as well as the difficulties of integrating its systems, operations functions and cultures with ours; and other risks referenced in our filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. For more information on these and other factors, please refer to our Annual Report on Form 20-F filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and to any subsequent reports furnished or filed by us with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The forward-looking statements contained in this announcement are made as of the date hereof, and we assume no obligation to update any of the forward-looking statements contained in this document.