post brexit vote gb & wales grocery performance; retailer, market … · 2017-11-29 ·...
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Post brexit vote GB & Wales Grocery
performance; retailer, market and
shopper insightsFraser McKevitt, Head of retail & consumer insight
2 November 2016
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Take home
grocery
30,000households
Continuous scanning
Consumption
11,000individuals
Food on
the go
5,000individuals
Continuous texting2x 1 week online diary
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Average ‘Grocers’ Growth Rate
+4.4%1993-2013
+0.7%2014-2016
Till Roll. KWP 2016 10. 12 w/e 09 Oct 16
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3.8%October 2006
10.7%August 2016
Aldi + Lidl Market Share
10.9%October 2016
Till Roll. KWP 2016 10. 12 w/e 09 Oct 16
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main
shop
top up
main
shoptop up
Online
main
shop
top up
Convenience
main
shop
top up
Discounters
main
shop
top up
High streetSupermarket
Top 5 switches(55% of market switching)
£340m
Bubble size = £ sales
£128m
£208m
£167m
RT43 (Grocery). KWP 2015 0952we 14 Sep 2016
£124m
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Frequency Repertoire
Basket size Mission
Slow
change
2562011
2592016
5.12011
5.12016
9.92011
9.92016
60.6%2011
62.5%2016
Annual
FMCG
Annual
FMCG
12we
Till Roll
Grocers
Annual %
spend from
Top up trips
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0 5 10 15 20 25 30 -10 -5 0 5 10 15
1.9 -7.4Indeps & symbols
4.6 8.4Lidl
6.2 11.4Aldi
5.4 3.5Waitrose
2.1 6.9Iceland
6.5 3.1Co-Operative
10.4 -3.0Morrisons
16.0 -0.4Sainsbury's
15.6 -5.2Asda
28.2 1.3Tesco
100.0 0.8Grocers
Growth
Share
% spend growth% spend share
Till Roll. KWP 2016 10. 12 w/e 09 Oct 16
vs a year ago
TILL ROLL MARKET SHARE AND GROWTH
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8
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
IndepsLidlAldiWaitroseIcelandCo-opMorrisonsSainsbury'sAsdaTesco
Scotland
Wales
England
% spend share
Welsh retail scene really not that different to England
Retail shares by country within GB
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The Welsh shopper
Annual spend £4,176 (+0.8% vs England)
Annual trips 220 (-1.7% vs England)
Average trip £19.01 (+2.5% vs England)
Till Roll. KWP 2016 10. 52 w/e 09 Oct 16
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12we published till roll grocers growth
Grocers growing sales at +0.8% vs last year
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Total Grocers
% spend
growth
Till Roll. KWP 2016 10. 12 w/e 09 Oct 16
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Inflation& prices
Shopping behaviour
Single market &
CAP
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Like for like prices falling by -0.8%
Grocery inflation
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
OD JMM J S ND F A J AON JMM J AOD F AM J S N JMM J AOD F AM J S N JMA J AOD FMM J S N JMA J AOD JMM J S
Grocery inflation% inflation
20092007 2008 2010 2011 2012 20142012 2015 2016
RT43 (Grocery). KWP 2016 10. 12 w/e 09 Oct 16
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Some staples (milk, fruit, bread) going up in price
Markets where prices are rising
0.0% 0.2% 0.4% 0.6% 0.8% 1.0% 1.2% 1.4% 1.6% 1.8% 2.0%
LFL inflation
Chilled Ready Meals
Chilled Desserts
Total Bread
Fruit
Total Milk
Fresh Lamb
P/P Fresh Meat+Veg+Pastry
Frozen Potato Products
Skincare
Wet/Smoked Fish
LFL inflation
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…yet vegetables, butter and pork/poultry are still seeing declining price
Markets where prices are falling
-7.0% -6.0% -5.0% -4.0% -3.0% -2.0% -1.0% 0.0%
LFL inflation
Vegetable
Yoghurt
Eggs
Butter
Fresh Sausages
Fresh Pork
Fresh Poultry
Savoury Snacks
Fresh Bacon Rashers
Machine Wash Products
LFL inflation
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Packs and average packs per household
Volume trends for total market
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
J F M M A M J J A S O N D J J F M A M J J A S O
Packs perhousehold
Packs
% growth
2015 2016
RT43 (Grocery). KWP 2016 10. 12 w/e 09 Oct 16
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2016 has seen a return to cheaper products, and some volume growth
Shopper trading up and trading down strategies
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
J S N D F A M J S N J M M J A O D F A M J S N J M A J A O D F M M J S N J M A J A O D F A M J S N J F A J A
Volume HH
Store Choice
Promotion Choice
Product Choice
contribution to
change
%pts
20092008 2010 2011 2012 20142013 2015
TRADING
DOWN
TRADING
UP
TRADING
DOWN
2016
RT43 (Grocery). KWP 2016 09. 12 w/e 11 Sep 16
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OUT OF HOME AND ‘ON THE GO’ BOOMING
£45bn +4.5%
22
8
7
5
3
Meals Snack Foods
Hot Beverages Sandwiches
Soft Drinks
OOH Value £bn Source: Kantar Worldpanel Out of Home
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Inflation& prices
Expect price rises end of
2016
Anticipate value engineering as round £ points so important
Shopping behaviour
Volumes stable
Move to own label?
Out of home at risk
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-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
J F MM A M J J A S O N D J F MM A M J J A S O N D J F MM A M J J A S O N D J J F M A M J J A S O
Tesco% spend growth
Till Roll. KWP 2016 10. 12 w/e 09 Oct 16
Tesco up +1.3%
TILL ROLL GROWTH
2016201520142013
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Very much volume led, except for alcohol & toiletries
Tesco growth across the store – value & volume
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
ToiletriesHouseholdHealthcareFrozenFresh+ChilledAmbientAlcoholTotal RST
Packs
Spend
Packs (000s)
Chart Footnote
RT43 (Grocery). KWP 2016 09. 12 w/e 11 Sep 16
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0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
D J F MM A M J J A S O N D J F MM A M J J A S O N D J F MM A M J J A S O N D J J F M A M J J A S
2016201520142013
Aldi
Lidl% spend growth
Till Roll. KWP 2016 09. 12 w/e 11 Sep 16
Slowing, but still spectacular
Aldi & Lidl growth
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Now mainstream
+
Who
shops
there
Household
penetration
What people buy
How much they
spend on a trip
How much of the
store they visit
Shopping
mission
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+5%
+7%*
*decline in Freedom Foods masking growth**launch of Waitrose One
Includes all premium own label, not just specific brand. RT43 (Grocery). KWP 2016 08. 12 w/e 14 Aug 16
-3% -4%
+8% +318%**
+23% +76%
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Consumer choices drive shopping
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Valuing time
16 of last 20 years
consumers had more money
(ONS)
19 of last 20 years shoppers spent less time
cooking(Kantar Worldpanel)
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Solutions
5 x £ premium for a solution
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Health
Food and drink
chosen in GB for
health is a £20.1
billion market
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Less sugar especially, but all ‘sin’ nutrients growing behind overall volume
The nation is slowly buying healthier
-2.0
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
FibreProteinSodiumSaturatesSugarsCaloriesVolume
Growth
% growth
KWP Nutrition Total nutrient % change from GB total take home food and drink march 2016 vs 2015
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Move towards positive efforts, away from restriction & denial
Nature of health is changing
-6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14
12To get portion of fruit or
veg
8.9Lighter/not filling
7.6Time for a healthier meal
5.3More natural/less
processed
1.4Provide a varied diet
-3.1Health
benefits(fibre/vitamins)
-4.8Calorie or portion control
% change over 2 years
KWP Usage
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Smaller households
1961 2011
40% 65%
% of households with 1 or 2 people
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Tended to tap into multiple consumer trends, and always at a premium
Recent successful innovation
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Deflation, discounters & move away
from large stores have shaped shopping
Brexit likely to fuel price rises, last
recession offers clues but not answers
to how shoppers will respond
Winning retailers & suppliers will
understand and activate for macro
consumer trends