potashcorp - 2015 q1 earnings

13
PotashCorp.com Q1 2015 Conference Call April 30, 2015

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Page 1: PotashCorp - 2015 Q1 Earnings

PotashCorp.com

Q1 2015 Conference Call

April 30, 2015

Page 2: PotashCorp - 2015 Q1 Earnings

Forward-looking Statements

Slide #2

Page 3: PotashCorp - 2015 Q1 Earnings

Slide#3

Performance

Page 4: PotashCorp - 2015 Q1 Earnings

First-Quarter 2015 Highlights

• Earnings of $0.44 per share1; above the $0.40 per share in 2014

• Potash sales volumes of 2.3 million tonnes

• Cash provided by operating activities of $521 million

• Agreement to acquire 9.5 percent stake in Fertilizantes Heringer S.A. (Heringer)

• Issued $500 million in 10-year notes at 3.00 percent

• Expect global potash shipments to reach high-end of 58-60 million tonne range

Source: PotashCorp

Slide #4

Page 5: PotashCorp - 2015 Q1 Earnings

Stronger Potash Performance

Quarterly Gross Margin Comparison

$565

$667+$128 -$58

+$32

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

Q12014

Potash Nitrogen Phosphate Q12015

Gross Margin - US$ Millions

Source: PotashCorp

Slide #5

Page 6: PotashCorp - 2015 Q1 Earnings

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

China India Other Asia LatinAmerica

2012 2013 2014 2015F*

Growth Trend Encouraging; Demand Expected to Remain at Historically High Levels

Offshore Potash Market Outlook

Source: PotashCorp

Slide #6

HighlightsPotash Shipments (million tonnes)

Page 7: PotashCorp - 2015 Q1 Earnings

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

North America Offshore Imports

2012 2013 2014 2015F*

Shipments Expected to Trail Prior Year; Significant Offshore Imports

North American Potash Market Outlook

Source: PotashCorp

Slide #7

HighlightsPotash Shipments (million tonnes)

Page 8: PotashCorp - 2015 Q1 Earnings

Slide#8

Strategy and Outlook

Page 9: PotashCorp - 2015 Q1 Earnings

Strategic Highlights

Source: PotashCorp

Potash

Nitrogen

Phosphate

Investments

& Capital

Allocation

Strategy

Slide #9

Page 10: PotashCorp - 2015 Q1 Earnings

2015 Guidance*

Second Quarter

• Earnings per share: $0.45-$0.55

Full Year

• Earnings per share: $1.75-$2.05; primary changes include:

Changes to Saskatchewan potash taxes: ~$0.07

Nitrogen (lower volumes and prices): ~$0.04

Potash (shift in expected sales mix by market): ~$0.03

Phosphate (lower volumes): ~$0.03

• Potash gross margin: $1.5-$1.8B

• Potash sales volumes: 9.2-9.7 million tonnes

• Nitrogen and phosphate gross margin: $1.0-$1.2B

Source: PotashCorp

Slide #10

Page 11: PotashCorp - 2015 Q1 Earnings

2015 Guidance*

Full Year

• Capital expenditures**: ~$1.2B

• Annual effective tax rate: 26-28 percent

• Provincial mining and other taxes: 20-22 percent of total potash gross margin

• Income from offshore investments***: $180-$200M

• Selling and administrative expenses: $230-$245M

• Finance costs: $200-$210M

• FX Assumption: $1.24 CDN$ / US$

• EPS sensitivity to FX: US$ strengthens vs. CDN$ by $0.02 = +$0.01 to EPS

Source: PotashCorp

Slide #11

Page 12: PotashCorp - 2015 Q1 Earnings

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

2008 2010 2012 2014 2016E 2018E

Source: PotashCorp

PotashCorp Capital Spending*

Declining CAPEX Enhancing Ability to Return Capital to Shareholders

PotashCorp’s Opportunity

US$ Billions

Current Estimate**

Slide #12

4.6%

3.0%

2.5%

2.1%

0.0%0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

POT AGU MOS CF IPI

Percent Yield***

Dividend Yield

Page 13: PotashCorp - 2015 Q1 Earnings

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