potashcorp - 2016 q1 earnings

13
PotashCorp.com Q1 2016 Conference Call April 28, 2016

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Page 1: PotashCorp - 2016 Q1 Earnings

PotashCorp.com

Q1 2016 Conference CallApril 28, 2016

Page 2: PotashCorp - 2016 Q1 Earnings

Forward-looking Statements

Slide #2

Page 3: PotashCorp - 2016 Q1 Earnings

Performance

Page 4: PotashCorp - 2016 Q1 Earnings

First-Quarter 2016 Highlights

• Earnings of $0.09 per share1; including:

- Notable non-cash charges in phosphate of $0.03 per share

- New Brunswick severance charges of $0.03 per share

• Market value of investments approximately $4 billion, or $5 per PotashCorp share2

• Expect global potash shipments of 59-61 million tonnes

1 All references to per-share amounts pertain to diluted net income per share2 As of market close on April 27, 2016

Source: PotashCorp

Slide #4

Page 5: PotashCorp - 2016 Q1 Earnings

Lower Prices Primary Contributor to Weaker Gross Margin

Quarterly Gross Margin Comparison

Q1 2015

Potash Nitrogen Phosphate Q1 2016

0

150

300

450

600

750$667

$234-$340

-$74 -$19

Gross Margin - US$ Millions

Source: PotashCorp

Slide #5

Page 6: PotashCorp - 2016 Q1 Earnings

Outlook

Page 7: PotashCorp - 2016 Q1 Earnings

Jan-1

5

Feb-1

5

Mar-1

5

Apr-15

May-1

5

Jun-1

5Ju

l-15

Aug-15

Sep-15

Oct-15

Nov-15

Dec-1

5

Jan-1

6

Feb-1

6

Mar-16

Apr-16

50

75

100

125 Crop Price Index* Fertilizer Price Index**

* Based on corn, soybean and wheat prices (weighted by global consumption).

** Based on urea, DAP and KCl prices (weighted by global consumption).

Price Index (January 2015 Average = 100)

Crop and Fertilizer Price IndexFertilizer Represents Even Greater Value for Farmers

Source: Bloomberg, Fertilizer Week

Decline in fertilizer prices relative to

crop prices presents opportunity for

farmers

Page 8: PotashCorp - 2016 Q1 Earnings

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

E20

16F

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70 Shipments Shipment Range ConsumptionMillion Tonnes KCl

World Potash Consumption and Shipments

Source: Fertecon, CRU, IFA, Industry Publications, PotashCorp

Potash Consumption Growth; CAGR of ~2.75 Percent (2000-2016F)

Page 9: PotashCorp - 2016 Q1 Earnings

China India Other Asia

Latin America

North America

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

2015E 2016F*

Crop Economics and Agronomic Need Expected to Support Strong Demand

Potash Market Outlook

Source: CRU, Katana India, Potafertz, PotashCorp, TFI

Slide #9

Highlights (2016F)Potash Shipments (million tonnes)

* As at April 28, 2016; represents midpoint of guidance range

Page 10: PotashCorp - 2016 Q1 Earnings

Guidance

Page 11: PotashCorp - 2016 Q1 Earnings

2016 Guidance*

Second Quarter

• Earnings per share: $0.15-$0.25

Full Year

• Earnings per share: $0.60-$0.80

• Potash sales volumes: 8.3-8.8 million tonnes

• Potash gross margin: $0.5-$0.7B

• Nitrogen and phosphate gross margin: $0.6-$0.8B

• Capital expenditures1: $0.7-$0.8B

*Guidance as at April 28, 20161Does not include capitalized interest

Source: PotashCorp

Slide #11

Page 12: PotashCorp - 2016 Q1 Earnings

2016 Guidance*

Full Year

• Effective tax rate: 25-27 percent

• Provincial mining and other taxes1: 24-27 percent of total potash gross margin

• Selling and administrative expenses: $235-$245M

• Finance costs: $210-$220M

• Income from offshore equity investments2: $120-$140M

• Annual FX Assumption: CDN$1.34 per US$

• Annual EPS sensitivity to FX: US$ strengthens vs. CDN$ by $0.02 = +$0.01 to EPS

* Guidance as at April 28, 20161 As a percentage of potash gross margin, excluding New Brunswick severance costs2 Represents share of earnings in equity-accounted investees and dividend income from available-for-sale investments

Source: PotashCorp

Slide #12

Page 13: PotashCorp - 2016 Q1 Earnings

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