poverty and place: what have we learned from the last decade? jim mccormick scotland adviser, joseph...
TRANSCRIPT
Poverty and Place:
What have we learned from the last decade?
Jim McCormickScotland Adviser, Joseph Rowntree Foundation (JRF)[email protected]
Direction of change for 56 Direction of change for 56 Monitoring Poverty & Social Monitoring Poverty & Social
Exclusion Exclusion indicators (NPI, 2008)indicators (NPI, 2008)
Change 1998-2002 2003-2007
Better 30 14
Steady 19 27
Worse 7 15
Net +23 - 1
Indicators showing progressIndicators showing progressSustained:Sustained: Fewer young people failing to achieve ‘standard’ Fewer young people failing to achieve ‘standard’
level of qualificationslevel of qualifications Proportion of homes not of a decent standardProportion of homes not of a decent standard Single pensioners on a low incomeSingle pensioners on a low income
Stalled: Stalled: Child poverty rate Child poverty rate Value of out-of-work benefits relative to earningsValue of out-of-work benefits relative to earnings
Change in child poverty, GB Change in child poverty, GB (1998-2007)(1998-2007)
Indicators showing progressIndicators showing progress
...but then reversed:...but then reversed:
Households in fuel povertyHouseholds in fuel poverty Rate of young adult unemploymentRate of young adult unemployment New JSA claims no more than 6 New JSA claims no more than 6
months after previous (work/no work months after previous (work/no work churn)churn)
No progress (steady)No progress (steady)
Area concentration of worklessness Area concentration of worklessness Long-term worklessness (2 years +)Long-term worklessness (2 years +) Disabled adults in work Disabled adults in work
Area concentrations of worklessness Area concentrations of worklessness in Scotlandin Scotland
Getting worseGetting worseSteadily:Steadily: Real value of benefits for workless households Real value of benefits for workless households
without childrenwithout children Low-income households paying full Council TaxLow-income households paying full Council Tax Entitled pensioner households not taking up Council Entitled pensioner households not taking up Council
Tax Benefit, Pension Credit and HBTax Benefit, Pension Credit and HB
After period of stability: After period of stability: People in People in veryvery low-income households low-income households In-work poverty – now more adults are poor in work In-work poverty – now more adults are poor in work
than out of work than out of work
Poverty trends: household typePoverty trends: household type Down by one-fifth among childrenDown by one-fifth among children Down by almost half among pensionersDown by almost half among pensioners Little change for working-age adults as a whole, Little change for working-age adults as a whole,
but...but...• Down for those with children, both in-work and outDown for those with children, both in-work and out• Up for those without children, whether in-work or not Up for those without children, whether in-work or not
(220,000 adults)(220,000 adults)• Most workless adults are poor, many are among the Most workless adults are poor, many are among the
poorest 10%poorest 10%
Income inequality Income inequality
Solidarity target on lowest-income Solidarity target on lowest-income 30%: addressing those 30%: addressing those at risk at risk of of poverty, in poverty and their share of poverty, in poverty and their share of total incometotal income
ONS (2008): ONS (2008):
‘‘UK income gap same as in 1991’UK income gap same as in 1991’ OECD (2008):OECD (2008):
‘‘Rich and poor gap narrows in the UK.’Rich and poor gap narrows in the UK.’
People and places: what works? People and places: what works? Review of UK-wide policies to target places Review of UK-wide policies to target places
(area-based) and people (client-groups) by (area-based) and people (client-groups) by Oxford UniversityOxford University
Most UK policies had small, positive impacts Most UK policies had small, positive impacts with costs usually offset by savingswith costs usually offset by savings
Policies to help IB claimants (PtW) and lone Policies to help IB claimants (PtW) and lone parents (NDLP) into work fared best among parents (NDLP) into work fared best among person-focusedperson-focused
But some area-based (Employment Zones) did But some area-based (Employment Zones) did better than equivalent person-based policies better than equivalent person-based policies
People and places: what works? People and places: what works?
Policies had greatest impact if:Policies had greatest impact if:• Tailored to disadvantaged people with minimal Tailored to disadvantaged people with minimal
complexitycomplexity• Reflected local needs and prioritiesReflected local needs and priorities• Shaped through active engagement with Shaped through active engagement with
stakeholders including service usersstakeholders including service users
Question of purpose: lots of evaluation, Question of purpose: lots of evaluation, but less clarity about how policy objectives but less clarity about how policy objectives link to policy outcomeslink to policy outcomes
Looking aheadLooking ahead Solidarity target (30%) means wider focus Solidarity target (30%) means wider focus
on low-income working households and on low-income working households and older people than poverty target (20%) older people than poverty target (20%)
Reduce income inequality: assets; skills for Reduce income inequality: assets; skills for learning, life and worklearning, life and work
Secondary schools: lowest-attaining 20% Secondary schools: lowest-attaining 20% Reduce inequality between areas: maps of Reduce inequality between areas: maps of
worklessness and low pay differworklessness and low pay differ Complex and deep poverty: drug and Complex and deep poverty: drug and
alcohol dependency, offending, asylum-alcohol dependency, offending, asylum-seeking, mental ill health seeking, mental ill health
Looking aheadLooking ahead
Welfare reform for the recovery - Welfare reform for the recovery - ‘work first’ won’t do‘work first’ won’t do
• Balancing paid and unpaid work Balancing paid and unpaid work • Tackling in-work povertyTackling in-work poverty• Reform of tax creditsReform of tax credits• Goal of sustainable work and skills Goal of sustainable work and skills
progressionprogression
Looking aheadLooking ahead
Pensioner poverty: who is best Pensioner poverty: who is best placed to transform uptake levels?placed to transform uptake levels?
Consumer poverty: addressing Consumer poverty: addressing market failure for essential services, market failure for essential services, starting with household energystarting with household energy
JRF Programme 2009JRF Programme 2009 What has devolution done for poor What has devolution done for poor
people and places?people and places? Second-generation housing stock Second-generation housing stock
transferstransfers Housing and Neighbourhoods MonitorHousing and Neighbourhoods Monitor Migrants in front-line servicesMigrants in front-line services Empowerment of older and disabled Empowerment of older and disabled
peoplepeople Problem drinkingProblem drinking