ppr: spread of the disease from...
TRANSCRIPT
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PPR: SPREAD OF THE
DISEASE FROM “STABLE” AREAS
Global Workshop on the World Animal Health Information System (WAHIS) for recently appointed National Focal Points for Animal Disease Notification to the OIE
Shenzhen, China, 13th March 2018
Tizzani Paolo – Veterinary epidemiologist
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Introduction
• One of the priority diseases in the FAO –
OIE (GF-TADs)
• The Global Strategy for the eradication of
PPR by 2030 was adopted in March 2015
• PPR present for many years in Central
African countries, the Middle East and
South-West Asia
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Introduction
• Since 2007, the disease has spread
further Africa: Morocco (2008), Algeria
(2011) and Tunisia (2011),
• Asia: China (2007), Bhutan (2010),
Tajikistan (2013)
• Europe: Georgia (2016).
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OIE Member Countries’ official status 2015 for PPR
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OIE Member Countries’ official status 2015 for PPR
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Distribution of infection with peste des petits ruminants virus in the period between 2005 and 2015
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Distribution of PPR in 2015 and early 2016
28% countries/territories
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Analysis of WAHIS data Global level
Geographical range of PPR increased in recent years?
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Methodology
Evolution of the epidemiological situation in the period 2005 – 2015 by mean of
Occurrence trend
Presence of PPR: temporal trend since 2005
Percentage of countries/territories reporting the disease present
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y = 0.0045x + 0.1846R² = 0.7
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
020406080
100120140160180200
1stsem.
2ndsem.
1stsem.
2ndsem.
1stsem.
2ndsem.
1stsem.
2ndsem.
1stsem.
2ndsem.
1stsem.
2ndsem.
1stsem.
2ndsem.
1stsem.
2ndsem.
1stsem.
2ndsem.
1stsem.
2ndsem.
1stsem.
2ndsem.
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
% affected countries
Number of countries
Countries reporting the disease absent
Countries reporting the disease present
% affected reporting countries
% of the reporting countries/territories for each semester between 2005 and 2015 that notified PPR present
Increasing trend
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Methodology
Evolution of the epidemiological situation in the period 2005 – 2015 by mean of
Presence of PPR: spatial trend since 2005
Spatial trend
Spread of the disease from the stable areas to new areas
Geostatistical approach
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Distribution of infection with peste des petits ruminants virus in the period between 2005 and 2015
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Spatial distribution of the PPR outbreaks used for the spread analysis
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Regional spatial trends of the outbreaks in Africa
P-value n.s.R2=0.3
Stable
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Regional spatial trends of the outbreaks in Asia
P-value<0.05R2=0.7
Deterioration
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• The global spread of PPR beyond its traditionalrange is alarming, above all for the outbreaksthat border free countries
• Big regional differences between Africa and Asia
• Results of the analysis indicate the globalepidemiological picture at T0 (referencecondition for the Global Strategy for the controland eradication of PPR)
Conclusion
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Regional spatial trends of the outbreaks in Asia
P-value<0.05R2=0.7
Deterioration
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Analysis of WAHIS dataRegional level
The spread of PPR in Asia in recent years: analysis of temporal, spatio-temporal and
economic trends
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1. Temporal Trends
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0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
1stsem.
2ndsem.
1stsem.
2ndsem.
1stsem.
2ndsem.
1stsem.
2ndsem.
1stsem.
2ndsem.
1stsem.
2ndsem.
1stsem.
2ndsem.
1stsem.
2ndsem.
1stsem.
2ndsem.
1stsem.
2ndsem.
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
% of reporting Members
No. of reporting Members
Members reporting the disease absent
Members reporting the disease present
% Affected reporting Members
Copyright © 2015, World Animal Health Information and Analysis Department - OIE
% of Members in Asia, the Far East and Oceania reporting infection with PPR virus, between 2005 and 2014
Spearman’s rank correlation test underlines (S = 48.29, p-value = 0.02; rho = 0.7)
Deterioration of the regional situation
21%
32%
2121
2. Spatio-temporal
Trends
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Distribution of infection with PPR virus reported between 2007 and 2014, in Asia, the Far East and Oceania
2007
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Distribution of infection with PPR virus reported between 2007 and 2014, in Asia, the Far East and Oceania
2008
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Distribution of infection with PPR virus reported between 2007 and 2014, in Asia, the Far East and Oceania
2010
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Distribution of infection with PPR virus reported between 2007 and 2014, in Asia, the Far East and Oceania
2013-2014
2626
2727
2828
2929
3030
3131
3232
3333
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Distance of each outbreak from the PPR endemic areas (closest areas in yellow and the farthest ones in violet)
Spearman's rank correlation, S = 6.56, p-value <0.01, rho=0.9
Spread 2007
204 km
Spread 2014
1 663 km
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3. Economics Trends
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0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
90000
100000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
An
ima
ls l
ost
Year
Copyright © 2015, World Animal Health Information and Analysis Department - OIE
Direct economic losses due to infection with PPR virus between 2007 and 2014, as of 24 August, in Asia, the Far East and Oceania
24 000
90 000
+ 275%
3737
Conclusions
• The spread of PPR in the last 7 years is quite alarming
• All the indicators evaluated (temporal, spatio-temporal, economic) show a deterioration of the epidemiological situation
• A definitive eradication will necessarily entail bettercollaboration and communication (transparency and accuracy) between Members, better control of transboundary animal movements and use of vaccination when relevant
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Thank you for your attention!