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Pakistan and Regional Issues

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Sequence

Pak-Afghan Relations

Kashmir Issue

China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC)

Conclusions

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Pak-Afghan Relations

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Historical Dimensions

Pak-Afghan relations date back to August 1947 when Pakistan became an independent state

Pakistan and Afghanistan have deep rooted relations due to historical, religious, cultural and ethno-linguistic connections between the people of the two countries

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Historical Dimensions

Issues related to Soviet invasion of Afghanistan,

Afghan refugee, Taliban insurgency, border crossings and Illegal trade especially of weapons and narcotics have remained areas of concern for both the countries

Growing Indian influence other than economic cooperation in Afghanistan, unstable internal security situation in post NATO withdrawal environment and challenges to the writ of Afghan government in the country have negative impact on Pak-Afghan relations

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The border between Pakistan and Afghanistan (Durand Line) was established after the 1893 Durand Line Agreement between Mortimer Durand (Foreign Secretary to the government of British India) and Amir Abdur Rahman Khan (Amir of Afghanistan) for fixing the limit of their respective spheres of influence. The issue is settled on recognition of Pak-Afghan international border. However, surfaces sometimes for political reasons

During the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, Pakistan played an important role alongside the US and extended facilities to build up Afghan resistance forces for defeating communist occupation. Consequently Pakistan continues to host more than 3 million Afghan refugees on its soil with immense implications

Historical Dimensions

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After Soviet withdrawal, US and international community lost its interest and left the region without consolidating governance which resulted in a chaotic environment

Consequently civil war broke out among various mujahedeen factions which led to Taliban taking over the capital, Kabul, in 1996.

In May 1997, Pakistan became the first country to accord diplomatic recognition to the Taliban govt followed by Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates

Historical Dimensions

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During the period Pakistan supported Afghan govt with the sole objective of fostering stability in the country

The incident of 9/11 brought the US back to the region against the Taliban regime in Afghanistan that was hosting Al-Qaeda leadership. Pakistan once again became an ally of the US due to its geographical proximity

Post 9/11 period Pak-Afghan relations have not been very cordial due to instability caused by a variety of reasons

Historical Dimensions

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Pakistan’s Interest : A Stable, peaceful and developing AfghanistanAfghan policy :Non interferenceFacilitate : Intra-Afghan dialogue

: Foster friendly relationsConcerns : Afghan territory should not be used to destabilize Pakistan

Pakistan’s Afghanistan Policy & Imperatives

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Viability of a regional framework: A regional framework which seeks neutrality and non-interference from countries in the neighborhood is the way forwardIntra-Afghan Dialogue: The Taliban’s negotiating behavior and their desired role in post-transition Afghanistan remains a question mark. Prediction is that reconciliation talks will be a long-drawn out processSuccess of Unity Govt: The unity govt in Afghanistan is an encouraging development however, it needs support from regional as well as extra regional stake holders for the benefit of the people of Afghanistan as well as the region

Key Challenges & Way Forward

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Internal Security Imperatives-Role & Success of ANSF: The future of ANSF is uncertain. Many in Kabul

believe that the forces will not be ready to become the principal custodians of Afghan security by 2016 due to a variety of reasons

The size of the Afghan National Army is unsustainable and high rate of desertions is a source of concern

Recent take over of Kunduz by Taliban is a test for ANSF to show their professional capability

Key Challenges

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Economic Dimension: The international community will have to provide required monetary support for Afghanistan in years to come to sustain Afghan economy and ANSF

Key Challenges

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Afghan Refugees. Pakistan has been hosting more than three million Afghan refugees since the 1980. Currently, the number of refugees in Pakistan is around 2.7 million, of whom 1.7 million are registered. Pakistan considers this as a significant contribution towards sharing the burden of Afghanistan and continues to do so despite the fact that refugee camps have served as bases for militant recruitments and criminal activities

Key Challenges – Other Aspects

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Indian Factor. In the post 9/11 scenario, India capitalized upon new realities and found favorable opportunities to establish and develop relations with Afghanistan at the expense of Pakistan-Afghan relations. It has pursued proactive diplomacy and has succeeded in creating pro Indian lobbies in Afghanistan. They have established numerous diplomatic missions in the major and strategically important cities of Afghanistan, which have been pursuing policy for destabilising Pakistan

Key Challenges – Other Aspects

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Border Management. In order to control the spillover effects and cross-border militancy, Pakistan took the initiative in installing check posts manned with regular forces and also proposed border fencing and other control measure which could not fully materialize. Steps are required to be taken to regulate the border managementJoint intelligence Mechanism. Development of an institutionalized joint mechanism for intelligence sharing and cooperation to eliminate illegal activities and defeat militancy and terrorism along the border

Key Challenges – Other Aspects

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Kashmir Issue

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Kashmir dispute continue to serve as a critical barrier in normalization of relations between Pakistan and India and to the detriment of greater economic growth and prosperity

Kashmir is indeed a matter of the people’s right to make a choice about their own destiny; and not a territorial dispute between India and Pakistan. International community is party to the pledge. A sustainable solution must, therefore, rest upon acknowledgement of the native people’s primacy and their participation in the peace process

Historical PerspectiveIssues in Brief

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Kashmir holds key to securing peace and harmony in South Asia and beyond. The unresolved dispute runs in tandem with a nuclearized environment. The one-fifth of humanity living in this region, has long awaited a conflict-free setting that would move the wheel of economic growth and bring prosperity

Historical PerspectiveIssues in Brief

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Kashmir dispute remains an unfinished agenda of the United Nations. In successive resolutions, the international community had promised the Kashmiri people their right to decide their future. The Resolutions have remained unimplemented to date

Kashmiris were promised right of self-determination in a number of Resolutions of the UN Commission for India and Pakistan, dated 9th November 1948, 5th January 1950, 23rd December 1952 and 24th January 1957

Historical PerspectiveUN Resolution: Statements

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In the resolutions adopted in the 1940s, both India and Pakistan agreed to remove foreign forces from the State and vowed to allow a plebiscite by which the Kashmiri people would exercise a free choice to join either India or Pakistan. However, by the late 1950s India decided to unilaterally act and annex the State, declaring it a part of the Indian Union. They refused to abide by the promises of a plebiscite

Historical PerspectiveUN Resolution: Statements

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In contravention to UN Resolutions the current Indian position describes the State of Jammu and Kashmir an integral part of the Indian Union. In their pronouncements, the dispute if any, relates to the part of the state held under Pakistani control

Historical PerspectiveIndian Position

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The India Pakistan escalation viz-a-viz Kashmir in 1948 had led upto a UN supervised ceasefire line, which was later on replaced by the LoC as a result of the 1971 war between the two countries. UN Peacekeeping mission titled UNMOGIP was deployed. However India has pushed the policy to deny unhindered access to the mission in pursuit of their duties

Pakistan and India went to war in 1965 and six years later in 1971, each war resulted in a truce and an interim agreement. The first agreement was in Tashkant after the 1965 war and the second in Shimla after 1971, after which LoC was demarcated on ground

Historical PerspectiveImpact of Indo-Pak Wars

1965 & 71

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The LoC was demarcated in part in Laddakh Region in 1984, India exploited the gap in demarcation and occupied Siachin Glacier, which has persisted since then as the highest battle field

Historical PerspectiveImpact of Indo-Pak Wars

1965 & 71

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Pakistan under Gen Musharraf made a special endeavour to break the stalemate, it announced ceasefire in 2003 and negotiated with the India for ‘an out of box solution’

Gen Musharraf had then offered a four point plan which laid emphasis on soft borders, self rule, demilitarization and joint mechanisim. However, the hardcore of the ruling elite in Delhi, even thwarted the process

Historical PerspectiveGen Musharraf’s

Formula

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The current Indian policy remains focused on integrating all aspects of life and activity in Jammu and Kashmir with the larger Indian Union

In the process, they desire to undo the special status of the State in terms of political autonomy as enshrined in Article 370 of the Indian Constitution

The Indian political elite, in the current phase aims at trifurcation of the State with a view to dissolving its legal identity and therefore, eroding its character as much as it relates to the international disputes

Current Indian PolicyStatus Quo

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The Indian State machinery has made unannounced moves to transplant population from India to sectors of the State. This is most pronounced in the Jammu region of the State

The State laws on permanent residence in Jammu and Kashmir enacted in 1940s and still protected, do not allow a non-J&K citizen to acquire property in the State. The current Indian policy also aims at removing this legal provision and to open the flood gate for Indians to settle in the State

Current Indian PolicyDemographic Change

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India has tried to benefit from the international community’s post 9/11 concerns viz-a-viz terrorism and thus directed its efforts to brand the National Liberation Movement as a terrorist manifestation

In response, the Kashmiri political elite have opted for ‘political resistance’ against Indian designs. However, the Indians have failed to open up a meaningful dialogue with the Kashmiri people and their policy of repression and over-militarization of the area continues to persist

Current Indian PolicyEquating Kashmir freedom Movement with Terrorism

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The Indians have been pursuing, a policy of coercion along the LoC. The ceasefire that was agreed in 2003 has been violated repeatedly. This makes the life of Kashmiris along the LoC difficult. Besides loss of life and damage to property, the situation can lead to escalation

Current Indian PolicyPolicy of Coercion along LoC

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The UN resolutions provide a sure basis for a sustainable settlement of the dispute. This way forward is critically important in view of a recognition that the dispute relates to human destiny and not a territory

Pakistan’s Policy and Way Forward

UN Resolutions

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Pakistan has in the past two decades tried to carry forward the process of dialogue with India through a composite dialogue process

The process that was initiated in 1997 but has not delivered because of the Indian refusal to address the core issues and ensure meaningful progress in all areas of dialogue

In the current scenario, the Indian leadership is not even ready to restart the composite dialogue and instead emphasizes on a unilateral agenda, so the stalemate continues

Pakistan’s Policy and Way Forward

Composite Dialogue

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Pakistan has made persistent efforts to end the statements in relation with India and to engage them in a meaningful dialogue. The basic premise is to bring one fifth of the human kind out of the imbroglio and let them move towards a pathway of stability and economic growth

In the continuing efforts, PM Nawaz Sharif has now proposed a four point formula to facilitate resumption of the dialogue process and to inject confidence that may be required for a headway. In this context, he spoke at the UNGA to call on the either side to agree to adherence to the 2003 ceasefire along the LoC in Jammu and Kashmir, demilitarization of Siachin Glacier (the highest battlefield in the world), and steps towards troops withdrawal from Kashmir

Pakistan’s Policy and Way Forward

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Unfortunately, India continues with the policy of status quo, displaying little desire to solve the humanitarian issue

Ironically a violator of UN Resolutions, it also aspires to become a member of UNSC

Pakistan’s Policy and Way Forward

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China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC)

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Pakistan and China maintain friendly relations since their independence in 1947 and 1948

Pakistan was the country which introduced China to the world and played a key role in facilitating its relations specially with the west

Throughout their history the economic and military cooperation between the two countries has continued

In the domain of infrastructure development, Karakoram highway is an example to quote

In the defence sector, many joint projects have been undertaken to include; JF-17 Fighter Aircraft, Al-Khalid Tank joint production, F-22P Frigate designing and construction etc

Pakistan-China CooperationHistorical Perspective

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In the economic sector a number of power projects are being established to address the power shortage in Pakistan as well as produce sufficient power for the projects related to China-Pakistan Economic Corridor initiative

Pakistan and China also have cooperated in development of peaceful nuclear technology which has manifested in establishment of nuclear power plants in Pakistan

Pakistan-China CooperationHistorical Perspective

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In China-Pakistan Economic Corridor initiative, there are three main dimensions in which development will take place: Development of infrastructure to include

highways, railways, oil and gas pipelines, laying of fiber optics networks etc

Positive impact on security situations of both Pakistan and China in that tremendous development prospects will facilitate socio-economic uplift of the people of both the countries

Opportunity to enhance people to people contacts, contributing significantly through cultural exchanges

China-Pakistan Economic Corridor

and its Significance

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Infrastructure development: Substantial development needs to be undertaken in installing power plants for fulfilling the requirement of the industrial development that will take place as part of the economic corridor initiative

Security dimension – Role of Armed Forces: All available resources are being utilized by Pakistan Army which is engaged in combating terrorism in the tribal areas as well as major cities in the country. The operation in FATA are in culmination stage which will lead to political consolidation. The internal security situation in the country has improved which will be even better with the installation of local governments

Challenges and Opportunities

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Governance & Transparency Aspects: For the economic activity initiatives are being undertaken to improve governance and transparency at all levels of business and administration

Challenges and Opportunities

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Pakistan’s Role as a Connecting Country:Pakistan has and will always strive for bringing peace and stability in the region by focusing on the socio-economic development aspects. Human security aspects are under great focus in government planning processes. A number of initiatives to enhance trade with the neighbouring countries have been taken of which Iran-Pakistan (IP) and Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, Pakistan and India (TAPI) gas pipeline projects are the examples

While taking care of the regional as well as internal security aspects, Pakistan will continue to play a positive role in providing connectivity to Central, South and Western Asian Regions

Challenges and Opportunities

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After about a decade and half war like situation in Afghanistan, Pak-Afghan relations have started to improve and need to be further strengthened

Pakistan has always extended consistent support for peace and reconciliation in Afghanistan. It remains committed to work with Afghanistan as well as the international community for sustainable peace, stability and development in Afghanistan

Pakistan desires a genuine intra-Afghan dispensation in Kabul that is not hostile and is sensitive to Pakistani interests

Important Conclusions

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Prosperity of Afghanistan is linked with Pakistan. CPEC would not only benefit Pakistan but Afghanistan as well

Reciprocal steps are also expected from Afghan side for border control and denying third party intervention

There is a need to strengthen Afghan Govt with all its institutions and especially the security forces to bring stability and peace within Afghanistan as a long term measure

South Asia presently faces the Kashmir issue which has become an impediment to peace and stability and needs resolution in accordance with the UN resolutions

Important Conclusions

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Kashmir represents a case of international neglect of the widespread human rights violations and over militarization of the habitat. The UN and related forums must play a pro-active role to stop these violations

The CPEC economic corridor initiative will help transport the resources like minerals, oil and gas in addition to the finished products, thus contributing to better economic activities and outcomes for entire South Asian region

Important Conclusions

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Pakistan military launched operation Zarbe-Azb in July 2014 which has significantly weakened the command & control of terrorists and there are positive indicators that security situation will improve in days to come leading to formation of a suitable environment for economic development

Important Conclusions

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Interactive Session

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Pak-Turkey Relations

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Strong bi-lateral, friendly relations People to people contact and brotherly relations Space and scope for greater economic cooperation

and collaboration

Historical Perspective

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Instability in Syria and Impact on Turkey Refugee crisis Rise of ISIS Probabilities of competition between Iran & Saudi

Arabia Instability in Yemen Kashmir Issue Instability in Afghanistan

Contemporary Concerns

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Dialogue between BILGESAM & NDU Joint Research for suggesting way forward Joint Research for consolidating Pakistan – Turkey

Relations

Way Forward

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Thanks