How To Predict Social Media Successmarketing through the power of emotions

Neuromarketing World Forum | Barcelona | 27th March 2015

Scale

• cameras everywhere

• basic emotions universal

• easiest to share feedback

Value

• rich data to work with

• drives thoughts and decisions

• ROI-proof building up

Why Emotions?

www.steviewonder.org.uk

From Push to Pull

• media has totally changed

• consumers in driver seat

• push has weaker ROI

From Reach to Relevance

• large impressions and GRPs?

• … or rather any concrete amount of business results?

Why Social?

www.steviewonder.org.uk

“Half of my ad spend is

wasted but I don’t know

which half.”

John Wanamaker – US Pioneer in Marketing, 1874

140 years on, things are probably much worse

Partly because of imperfect feedback methods

MeasurementTargetingTesting

5% using neuro

FinishStart

< 0.1% using neuro < 0.001% using neuro

99% of current neuro insights applied at pre-planning stage

View across the campaign

Step 1 to get there:

prove ROI!

Neuro methods have the huge potential to cover the full cycle

Which creative to launch?How to make it better?

Which audience to buy? How much to invest?

What was the impact?How does it benchmark?

2202 videos

365k views

6mactions

Worlds biggest emotion validation dataset

The measured social statistics have long tail distributions.We prefer classification to try to predict creative excellence instead of regression on the raw numbers.

Although we are able to measure different activity (view, comment, share etc.) in reality these metrics are highly correlated. Somewhat weaker but positive correlations can be observed across different data sources.

Understanding social data

More than 1000 features from:

• 12 measures: 6 basic emotions, Neutral, Engagement, Valence, Attention, Approach and Heartrate

• Timeline features from dynamics of emotion curves

• Event features to capture individual behavior (e.g. % of people with more than 3 second long smile)

Preparing the data for analysis

Volkswagen Force

70605040302010

0

1.00.80.60.40.2

0-0.2-0.4

Sess

ions

Time (0.1 sec)0 50 100 150 200 250 300

Several modeling techniques

• Nearest Neighbors

• Logistic Regression

• Support Vector Machine

• Random Forest

• Gradient Boosted Regression Trees

Happy42%

Surprise21%

Disgust14%

Neutral12%

Engagement9%

Sad2%

Emotion Importance

Happy Surprise Disgust Neutral Engagement Sad

Modelling approaches used for analysis

0.67 0.70 0.71 0.68

0.71 0.68

0.74 0.72 0.76 0.77 0.76

0.71

0.80 0.80 0.80 0.78 0.81

0.74

FACEBOOK COMMENTS > 5,000

FACEBOOK LIKES > 5,000

FACEBOOK SHARES > 5,000

YOUTUBE COMMENTS > 1,000

YOUTUBE LIKES > 1,000 YOUTUBE VIEWS > 1,000,000

Are

a u

nder

the

RO

C c

urv

e

Only self-reported features Top 12 emotion features Our best result

Performance of different approaches

Short Description Impact*1 Percentage of people with smile 0.86 Happy2 Percentage of people with long smile (>3 sec) 0.85 Surprise3 Percentage of people with disgust 0.76 Disgust4 Percentage of surprised people 0.73 Neutral5 Average duration of smile events 0.69 Engagement6 Average duration of disgust events 0.57 Sad7 Average duration of surprise events 0.558 Happiness at the end 0.489 Engagement in the last 5 second 0.47

10 Average duration of neutral face 0.4511 Sadness in the middle -0.1912 Neutral in the last 5 second -0.45

*Impact is derived as the standardized group average difference between the best ads and the rest. Positive Impact score indicates that the best ads have higher value.

Top 12 features that drive YouTube likes

Visualization of prediction

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2,000,000

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1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Yo

uT

ube

Vie

ws

Lik

es, S

hare

s

Performance Score

Facebook Shares YouTube Likes YouTube Views

EmotionAll® generalizes our main data science learnings into a simple 1-10 score that at any point in time is represented relative to the whole Realeyes’ growing database of +5,000 videos.

Based mostly on our social performance work, supported by findings from analysis of 468 Cannes Lions submissions and observation from relates academic research in the field, 4 core building blocks have emerged:

• Attract: can you grab the attention? Measured by peak surprise value early in the video.

• Retain: can you keep it? Measured by peak happiness value after the early part of the video.

• Engage: how strong engagement can you build? Measured by peak engagement anywhere in the video.

• Impact: what do you leave people with? Measured by Daniel Kahneman’s peak-to-end rule: impression left by any experience is determined by any emotion evoked at their peak and at the end: (peak + end) / 2

EmotionAll®

0M

1M

2M

3M

4M

5M

6M

7M

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Vie

ws

EmotionAll® Score

Average of YouTube Views

0K

10K

20K

30K

40K

50K

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70K

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1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Sha

res

EmotionAll® Score

Average of Facebook Share Count

0k

2k

4k

6k

8k

10k

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Tw

eets

EmotionAll® Score

Average of Twitter

Source: Realeyes analysis of 2,083 YouTube videos and 371,245 video views in March 2015

EmotionAll® in actionAll outcome-linked dataset

Videos EmotionAll®

70 6.46

87 6.10

0

5

10

15

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25

30

3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

2014

2015

Superbowl 2014 more emotional than 2015

EmotionAll® in action

0

0.5

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Likes Shares Tweets

Social actions per 1,000 views

2014

2015

Superbowl 2014 performed better than 2015

EmotionAll® in action

30

300

3,000

30,000

300,000

3,000,000

8,000 80,000 800,000 8,000,000 80,000,000

Act

ions

Views

2014 2015 Power (2014) Power (2015)

Emotion lift = Performance lift

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

0:00:00 0:00:10 0:00:20 0:00:30 0:00:40 0:00:50 0:01:00

Brand Shown Engagement Norm - Avg Engagement US 0-60s

McDonald’s – Pay with Lovin’

Hitting the EmotionAll® buttons

15,900,342 views

15,215 shares

Attract Retain Engage Impact

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

0:00:00 0:00:10 0:00:20 0:00:30

Brand Shown Engagement Norm - Avg Engagement US 0-60s

186,826 views

M&T Bank - Chris Dambach's Story

Missing the EmotionAll® buttons

8 shares

Attract Retain Engage Impact

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14

Days

Mu

ltip

lied

Pe

rfo

rman

ce

Socia

l act

ions p

er 1

000

views

12x Social Actions For Heineken

Shifting media spend behind stronger scoring videos yielded more social actions than non-optimised distribution.

12x Social actions(per 1000 views)

Combining Testing with Targeting

MeasurementTargetingTesting

Which video to launch?How to make it better?

FinishStart

Which audience to buy? How much to invest?

What was the impact?How does it benchmark?

Benefits Across the Campaign

How to cover this part?

99% of current neuro insights applied at pre-planning stage

Neuro grows beyond pre-testing, becomes part of real experience

Step towards new “Emotional Economy”

“People will forget what you said,

people will forget what you did

but people will never forget how

you made them feel.”

Maya Angelou – Poet, author and activist

Thank you